2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Jacksonville Jaguars

The 2011 Jacksonville Jaguars were a case study in the new NFL. Playing defense and running the ball is no longer the way to build a team.

Having a rookie quarterback who seemed overwhelmed by the moment doesn't help much either, but the Jaguars couldn't create big plays in the passing game and couldn't score enough points to win games, even though their defense finished in the top 10 in passing, rushing and total yards, plus 11th in points allowed.

Maurice Jones-Drew is the only player on this offense who defensive coordinators have to game plan for and Blaine Gabbert was dreadful most of the year. It's a credit to the defense that this team won as many games as it did.

It wouldn't be at all surprising to see this team back in the top 10 of next year's draft because there simply aren't enough pieces to make this team competitive in 2012.

The only thing that might save them is they play in a weak division with just one good team. Facing the Colts and the Titans twice a year could help get the Jags a few wins.

To be fair, the Jaguars did bring in some guys at the wide receiver position to fill in the voids, but the offensive line remains a disaster and it's hard to tell if Gabbert can play or not.

And despite the quality numbers, there are some holes on this defense, particularly at defensive end, that will have to be addressed with Andrew Luck coming to the division and the possible emergence of Lake Locker in Tennessee.

The new Jaguars owner, Shahid Khan may be looking to make a splash in the draft, which means we should expect to see high picks spent on some of the "sexy" positions. 


A good draft though, could really facilitate the development of Gabbert and allow the Jaguars to get a clearer picture of what they have in the former first round pick. 

Offense
Getting Laurent Robinson and Lee Evans in free agency was a good start. Both are average starters at worst and Evans, if he can stay healthy, has been one of the best deep threats in the league throughout his career.

Robinson broke out to some degree in Dallas last year with injuries in that Cowboys receiving core and has apparently been a target for Khan since before he owned the team.

Even with both Robinson and Evans on the roster, there are whispers that the Jaguars will draft Michael Floyd with the 7th pick in order to give Gabbert a legitimate #1 receiver.

Chad Henne was also brought in to back up Gabbert and provide some insurance in case Gabbert gets hurt.

Making some improvements along the offensive line could go a long way in making sure Gabbert stays on the field. Eugene Monroe was a first round pick and has been good for Jacksonville, but the rest of this line is a shambles.

Making that a target in the early rounds of the draft is a necessity for a team relying on the running game and a young quarterback to make the offense go.

Key Free Agents: David Garrard QB (signed w/ Dolphins), Kevin Haslam OT, Luke McCown QB, Kyle Miller TE (signed w/ Colts), Kassim Osgood WR, Mike Sims-Walker WR, Guy Whimper (re-signed w/ Jaguars), 

Defense
Jacksonville has one of the most underrated defenses in the league. They don't have big name players like the other marquee defenses in the AFC, but they play physical football and have a solid understanding of their scheme.

Aaron Ross  was signed from the Giants to add depth to the secondary, although Ross is no stud corner. The Jags will probably take a defensive back in the first few rounds of the draft to make up for the losses of a few key reserves in free agency.

Jacksonville's biggest deficiency defensively though, is at defensive end. The Jags haven't had an elite defense end since...maybe ever.

This draft is loaded with pass rushers and at #7, the Jags will likely have their pick of whomever they think is the best one. They could go end or tackle since Fletcher Cox, the top-rated tackle in many scout's minds, is the best pass-rushing tackle in the draft and could even play end.

Depth at linebacker is a concern as well, which means at least a late round pick to add depth and help on special teams seems likely.

Key Free Agents: Allen Russell OLB (re-signed w/ Jaguars), C.C. Brown DB, Leger Douzable DE (signed w/ Titans), Courtney Greene SS, David Jones CB, Dwight Lowery SS (re-signed w/ Jaguars), William MIddleton CB, Jeremy Mincey DE ( re-signed w/ Jaguars), C.J. Mosley DT (re-signed w/ Jaguars), Matt Roth DE, 

Draft Targets

Needs: WR,DE,OL,DB,RB
Round 1 (Pick 7): Quinton Coples DE North Carolina (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 7)

A lot of the media types have Melvin Ingram in this spot because they have Ingram ahead of Coples. For a 4-3 team, I don't think Ingram is a good fit to play end and Coples has the size and quickness to play end or tackle in a four-man front. Coples is one of the most physically gifted players in this entire draft, but the tape didn't always reflect that. Even so, he's one of the elite talents in this draft and could be used to supplement multiple positions for the Jaguars. A wide receiver like Malcolm Floyd is certainly not out of the question here, nor is a player like Fletcher Cox if he isn't snatched up by the Rams at 6. There has been recent talk about the Jaguars trading down to #11 or #12 to facilitate the Chiefs or Seahawks taking Ryan Tannehill ahead of the Dolphins at #8.

Round 2 (Pick 38): David Wilson RB Virginia Tech (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 36)

As talented as Maurice Jones-Drew is, in the NFL, you need two running backs. Wilson would be a great change of pace from MJD and has the kind of speed and quickness to be a big-play back in the NFL. Wilson doesn't have the physical style of Jones-Drew, but he runs with some elusiveness and does have the strength to break tackles. Wilson can also be an effective receiver out of the backfield on screens. If a receiver like Alshon Jeffery falls, he could be temping. Reaching (a tad) on Rueben Randle here would also make sense given the need at wide receiver. To me, Wilson has the best value and could be the future of this backfield. If they go with Floyd in the first, I think there will be some pass rushers like Andre Branch who could make sense here as well as a tackle like Mike Adams.

Round 3 (Pick 70): Zebrie Sanders OT Florida State (Pos. Rank: 8, Overall Rank: 73)

This pick makes sense not only because Sanders plays a position of need, but because he already has a built in fan base with ties to Florida, having played at Florida State. I know that's not part of the evaluation process, just saying that it's an added bonus. Sanders is a bit of a project, but has terrific athletic ability and quickness. He has good power for someone his size, but may struggle against bull rushes from powerful ends at the next level. His run blocking may be his best skill and his experience at both tackle spots means he brings versatility to the offensive line. Sanders has the potential to be a starter at right tackle right away for the Jags.

Overall

This isn't the sexy draft I promised, but sometimes that's the way things work out. Jacksonville does have a history of drafting to the beat of their drum (Tyson Alualu comes to mind), but I think the Jags probably feel good enough about their receivers to eschew reaching for one in the first round. Coples is a potential stud lineman and Wilson is a starting-caliber back with versatility to be effective in the passing game. Sanders could be a steal in the third round and may not last that long since some people have him with a first round grade. I think, to some degree, Sanders has gotten lost in the shuffle and I've had him in an out of the first round throughout the year. He's certainly talented enough to start for the Jags given where their offensive line is. The value in this draft isn't great (-1), but the impact from it could be.

Final Thought
I want to be on board with Jacksonville because I think Gabbert has potential and Maurice Jones-Drew is one of my favorite players to watch. Unfortunately, this offense isn't appreciably better than last year and I'm not sure how much better the draft can get them. That being said, this defense plays tough and will keep the Jaguars in games. If the offense can improve thanks to the additions at wide receiver (including one potentially from the draft), it may be good enough to pick up a few extra wins, but with a brutal schedule, having to see the NFC North and the AFC East, another 5-10 may actually be a step forward for the Jags.