2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Detroit Lions

Starting with Detroit, every subsequent team on this list is in need of improvement if they want to compete next season.

Of those teams, Detroit may be the closest, coming off a playoff appearance for the first time in almost a generation for the Lions.

The core of this team is young and ultra-talented with players like Calvin Johnson, Matthew Stafford and Ndamukong Suh.

On the other hand, the defensive back seven is severely lacking in talent and the offensive line needs some help as well.

Calvin Johnson is one of the most unique physical talents in the NFL's long history, a unique mix of Terrell Owens and Randy Moss, only without the diva attitudes.

The biggest diva on this team is actually Detroit's head coach Jim Schwartz who nearly came to blows with 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh last year over a handshake.

Suh was suspended for stomping a Packer player - after shoving his helmet into the turf - and was voted the NFL's dirtiest player by the players themselves.

There appears to be some issues with institutional control in Detroit and the gross amount of personal foul penalties this team has accumulated over the past few seasons speaks to a lack of discipline.

That being said, the Lions, including their head coach, are loaded with talent and if they can mature, and figure to be a dangerous team for years to come. 
   
Offense
Detroit was a top five offense last year despite finish third to last running the football. They've used two high draft picks on running backs with no success and part of the reason is neither has been able to stay healthy.

A lack of elite talent on the offensive line doesn't help either, but frankly, the best way for this offense to be successful is to throw the ball to Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew and Titus Young.

There are some concerns that this team cannot move the ball effectively and relies too heavily on big plays to score. Getting a possession receiver to pair with the deep speed of Titus Young should open up lanes for Megatron and Pettigrew.

If this backfield is healthy, there is versatile talent with Jahvid Best and Mikel LeShoure, but it seems only logical to draft a back even if it's not in the first few rounds. A quarterback also makes some sense in the mid rounds given that Stafford has an injury history and both of Detroit's back-ups are exiting in free agency.

Offense wasn't a problem for the Lions last season, but there are some spots they can afford to upgrade. If they can, Detroit belongs in the same conversation with the Saints and Packers as the best offenses in the league.


Key Free Agents: Jeff Backus OT (re-signed w/ Lions), Leonard Davis G, Will Heller TE (re-signed w/ Lions), Shaun Hill QB, Maurice Morris RB, Kevin Smith RB (re-signed w/ Lions), Drew Stanton QB (signed w/ Jets, traded to Colts), Maurice Stovall WR, 

Defense 

Despite boasting perhaps the best front four in football, Detroit's defense was the biggest deficiency for the Lions in 2011. Suh being suspended certainly didn't help, but with Cliff Avril, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Corey Williams and Nick Fairley, there was enough talent upfront to be a good, or even great defense.

The reason the Lions weren't an elite defense was the back seven is a major problem. Stephen Tulloch is the only above average starters in that group with Eric Wright leaving in free agency.

Talent, more than scheme or execution, is the biggest reason Detroit finished 23rd in points allowed and 22nd in passing.

Detroit did sign Jacob Lacey, but the former Colts corner isn't anything special and getting some young talent in the back end of the defense to match the front end would go a long way in making this a more complete team.

Key Free Agents: Bobby Carpenter OLB, Erik Coleman CB (re-signed w/ Lions), Andre Fluellen DT (re-signed w/ Lions), DeAndre Levy OLB, Brandon McDonald CB, Stephen Tulloch MLB (re-signed w/ Lions), Eric Wright CB (signed w/ Buccaneers). 

Draft Targets

Needs: DB,LB,RB,WR,OL
Round 1 (Pick 23): Dont'a Hightower ILB Alabama (Pos. Rank 2, Overall Rank: 26)

There has been some speculation that Hightower might actually go ahead of his Alabama teammate Courtney Upshaw, which would make this pick even more valuable than it seems right now. Hightower is an explosive, powerful linebacker who plays downhill all the time. He's exactly the type of aggressive, physical player the Lions need and although he played the middle of Alabama's defense, certainly has the athletic abilities to move outside at the next level.

Round 2 (Pick 56): Rueben Randle WR LSU (Pos. Rank: 7, Overall Rank: 54)

After running what some scouts said was a 4.33 40 at his pro day, Randle may not fall this far. If he does though, Detroit would be wise to draft him, filling the possession receiver role Nate Burleson was supposed to occupy. Randle has the speed to get deep, but at 6-4 can be a target across the middle and draw safeties away from Calvin Johnson. On third and eight with Megatron facing a double team, Randle could be a go-to receiver with his ability to beat single coverage on intermediate routes.

Round 3 (Pick 85): Vontaze Burfict LB Arizona State (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 89)

If there's a place that doesn't need another hot-headed defensive player it's Detroit. If there's a place where they don't seem to care if you have a short fuse, it's also Detroit. Burfict was considered a top 20 talent heading into the year, but inconsistent play, not to mention a propensity to let his emotions get away from him, have him plummeting down draft boards. A below average post-season set of workouts has actually spurred some teams to remove him from their boards completely. He's somewhat redundant with Hightower and Tulloch, but from a talent standpoint, this is an absolute steal in the third round.

Overal

The value in this draft isn't terrific, but with the stock of Randle and Hightower rising, I would say it's better than the numbers (-5) indicate. Between Burfict and Hightower you have at least one starter and potentially two down the road. If you pair Randle with Johnson and put Titus Young in the slot, that's a scary group as well so this draft would make Detroit better at areas of need. Getting an offensive lineman would be nice, as would a running back and quarterback to develop.

Final Thought

Maturity should be the word of the offseason for Detroit. Can they mature? If they can be more disciplined, eliminate the silly penalties, the personal fouls, and execute, they have the talent to match any team in the NFC. Targeting a few players to help in the secondary and linebacker could help really improve a defense that already boasts one of the best pass rushes in the league. Another double-digit season and a shot at the playoffs seem likely, depending on whether or not Matthew Stafford can stay healthy. Teams in the NFC saw last year what the Lions are capable of. They are a year older, and if they are a year wiser, look out.

2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Pittsburgh Steelers

With considerable attention being paid to other AFC playoff teams this offseason, the Pittsburgh Steelers have been largely left unmentioned.

This is typical of the Steelers, who tend to go about their business, play tremendous defense and win football games without a lot of flash or bravado.

In other words, this isn't a sexy team.

Still, heading into the playoffs last year, they were the team Patriot fans were most concerned about and if it weren't for injuries, may well have been the team playing for a Super Bowl.

Unfortunately, injuries happen to every team and Pittsburgh simply hasn't done a good job in recent years of drafting and developing players in the secondary or the offensive and defensive fronts of this team.

When you don't have depth or young players who are ready to play, injuries, which are part of the game for every team, hurt that much more.

Despite all of that, this team won 12 games, finished first in total defense and was a Tim Tebow overtime throw away from playing the eventual AFC Champions in the playoffs.

There are holes, particularly in the offensive and defensive lines, but if they can be addressed, Pittsburgh could be a team who comes back in a big way in 2012.
   
Offense

The identity of this team offensively has changed in the past few years. The emergence of Pittsburgh's young, lightening quick receivers has turned this into a big-play offense. Mike Wallace and Andre Brown form one of the best receiving duos in the league and create match-up problems for defenses with their speed.

Injuries and depth concerns have hindered the offense's ability to run the football, as have the Steelers' relative lack of depth in the backfield. With Mewelde Moore heading to free agency, the Pittsburgh should look to find a suitable change of pace back to spell Rashard Mendenhall.

Talent on the offensive line, however, is the bigger problem. Four Steelers offensive lineman are free agents, although Doug Legursky is restricted. Outside of center Maurkice Pouncey, there isn't a top-level offensive lineman in this group which means getting better there is a must.

Drafting a quarterback this year seems like a strong possibility as well given that all three of Pittsburgh's back-ups are free agents this year.    


Key Free Agents: Charlie Batch QB, Jericho Cotchery WR, Dennis Dixon QB, Trai Essex G, Chris Kemoeatu G, Doug Legursky G, Mewelde Moore RB, Max Starks, Hines Ward (retired)

Defense 

Defense will continue to be how the Steelers win consistently. Troy Polamalu isn't the player he used to be and has had a problem staying healthy, but this group plays so well fundamentally and physically that it can mask some of the personnel deficiencies.

Losing James Farrior in free agency hurts because he was one of the key leaders of that defense and made calls at the line. Harrison and Woodley form probably the best 3-4 linebacker tandem in football, but the interior could use some help.

The biggest problem defensively for the Steelers is their three-man front. They lost to the Broncos last year, in part because they literally ran out of defensive lineman to put on the field. Not to mention that ones they do have on the roster are getting older. An upgrade here is a must.

As with every NFL team, getting depth in the defensive backfield should always be a focus, particularly when the Steelers know to win the AFC they'll have to beat teams like New England, Baltimore and Houston, all of whom like the throw the ball around the yard. 

Key Free Agents: James Farrior ILB, William Gay (signed w/ Cardinals), Aaron Smith DE,

Draft Targets

Needs: OL,DL,LB,RB,DB

Round 1 (Pick 24): Devon Still DT Penn State (Pos. Rank 4, Overall Rank: 24)

In a perfect world, one of the top shelf offensive lineman falls to the Steelers here. A player like Cordy Glenn would be a great fit in Pittsburgh. On the other hand, Still was considered by many to be the top defensive tackle prospect heading into the combine when guys like Dontari Poe and Fletcher Cox blew scouts away with their athleticism. Still is not a penetrating tackle, but uses his hands well to control offensive lineman and has the kind of frame that fits what Pittsburgh asks of their defensive ends in their 3-4.

Round 2 (Pick 56): Alameda Ta'amu NT Washington (Pos. Rank: 8, Overall Rank: 56)

Pittsburgh has one of the best nose tackles in the game in Casey Hampton. Ta'amu has a chance to be that kind of elite-level player as well. He showed that at the Senior Bowl with an absolutely dominating week of practice. On the other hand, he doesn't show that explosiveness and power all of the time, whether it's conditioning or focus. In a defense surrounded by other elite talent and veteran leadership, Pittsburgh would be the ideal place to maximize his potential. This could be a swindle of a deal for the Steelers.


Round 3 (Pick 86): James Brown G/T Troy (Pos. Rank: 6, Overall Rank: 91)

Finally the Steelers address their biggest issue which is help on the offensive line. Brown played tackle at Troy, something you can see in his agility and nimble footwork. If a team like the Steelers want to slide him inside to guard, he'll have to work on bending and anchoring inside, particularly since he's tall with long arms. Not a technician, Brown is a competitor and a terrific athlete who has a high ceiling in the NFL.

Overall 

Pittsburgh has done an excellent job in recent drafts of getting offensive talent with guys like Wallace and Brown. It's important that the Steelers address their fronts on both sides of the ball and this draft does that, while also maintaining the integrity of their pick's value. The draft value (-5) rests mostly on the reach for Brown since Still and Ta'amu are drafted literally exactly where their value dictates. On the other hand, Brown is a player with a tremendous upside and if you're going to reach, you have to weigh the possible rewards. In this case the Steelers address their defensive lines with solid value and that gives them the flexibility to be more aggressive with a high-ceiling player.

Final Thought

Even if Pittsburgh doesn't draft or bring in any impact players, this is a 10 win team if they're healthy. At least. But that's the point: the Steelers need to add talent to weather any injury storms. Addressing the fronts in the draft, while also adding a running back and back-up quarterback would give the Steelers piece of mind knowing the key cogs are place already. This is a playoff team and one that is certainly still smarting from that playoff exit at the hands of Tebowmania. An angry Steeler team is not one you want to see if you're an opponent.

2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Denver Broncos

It doesn't make sense to talk about the 2012 Denver Broncos through the lens of the '11 team since Denver traded the mania that had defined their season to New York.

Oh, and they signed a 4-time MVP and all-time great to replace him.

By signing Peyton Manning and trading Tim Tebow, Denver put itself at the center of the biggest player moves this offseason.

Had Tebow been replaced by almost anyone else, the level of vitriol among Broncos fans likely would have been significant. When you are able to put Peyton Manning, one of the best to ever play the position, at the media podium though, those attitudes must be tempered.

Tim Tebow was a big reason for the Broncos going from a 1-4 team to a playoff team and his knack to help win close games was a big reason why.

Manning, now under center in Denver, will have the fewest weapons of his career, but some young players who could really benefit from Peyton's unique talents as a communicator and leader.

The Broncos defense isn't exactly terrifying, but Manning has played with worse.
  
Offense
As a run-first offense, the Broncos were terrific last year, finishing at the top of the league rushing the ball. Losing Tim Tebow's numbers there will hurt, but the Denver offensive line is solid and should do a good job of both protecting Peyton and opening up running lanes.

Added Andre Caldwell on the outside and Jacob Tamme at tight end will mitigate, to some degree, the losses of both of Denver's top tight ends and their slot receiver Eddie Royal.

That being said, getting better skill possession players to pair with Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker are a critical part to making this offense better around Manning.

A running back should be part of the offseason plan as well with the aging Willis McGahee starting.

Peyton immediately makes this offense better just by showing up. Denver will again be a playoff threat thanks to what will undoubtedly be a better passing offense this season.

Key Free Agents:Daniel Fells TE (signed w/ Patriots), Dante Rosario TE (signed w/ Chargers), Eddie Royal WR ( signed w/ Chargers), Brady Quinn QB (signed w/ Chiefs), Matt Willis WR

Defense 

Denver, for what they added on offense with Manning, stands to lose a truckload on defense. All of the beef Denver had - which wasn't much to begin with - is headed out the door with Broderick Bunkley and Marcus Thomas both hitting free agency.

Even Denver's back-up defensive line with Derrick Harvey and Ryan McBean stand to walk, leaving the Broncos to with a literal hole in their defense.

Added Tracey Porter and Mike Adams can improve a secondary that, outside of Champ Bailey, doesn't have much in the way of talent. Getting deeper at defensive back, given the elite offensive teams in the AFC, is always something to be mindful of as well.

Linebacker is an area of strength for this team with Von Miller coming off a dynamic rookie season and both Joe Mays and Wesley Woodyard re-signing.

This is an athletic group of linebackers that, if given some big bodies up front, can do plenty of damage in space.

Getting better in the front four has to be a priority for the Broncos this offseason.

Key Free Agents: Broderick Bunkley DT (signed w/ Saints), Brian Dawkins S, Mario Haggan OLB, Derrick Harvey DE (signed w/ Bengals), Jason Hunter DE, Joe Mays ILB (re-signed w/ Broncos), Ryan McBean DL, Marcus Thomas DT, Wesley Woodyard LB (re-signed w/ Broncos)

Draft Targets

Needs:WR,DB,DL,TE,RB

Round 1 (Pick 25): Kendall Wright WR Baylor (Pos. Rank 3, Overall Rank: 23)

Wright was a sliding prospect after he run above 4.6 at the combine. His 4.4 40's at his Baylor workouts quelled some of those concerns and Wright's tape shows a player with explosive capabilities regardless of what his times say. Wright reminds me of Packer wide receiver Greg Jennings, although Wright isn't quite as smooth in and out of breaks. With big, physical receivers in Decker and Thomas opposite him, Wright is an ideal fit to play in the slot for this Denver team.

Round 2 (Pick 57): Trumaine Johnson CB Montana (Pos. Rank: 8, Overall Rank: 58)

Champ Bailey is a Hall of Fame corner, but turns 34 this offseason and isn't the dynamic player he once was. Johnson isn't a ballhawk, but can be dynamic with the ball in his hands and returned kicks at Montana. At almost 6-2 and over 200 pounds, Johnson has the strength and speed to stick NFL wide receivers despite coming from a non-FBS school. If a defensive tackle falls to the Broncos here, there's certainly a possibility to draft one, but Johnson has better value than any available in my mock here.

Round 3 (Pick 87): Mike Martin DT Michigan (Pos. Rank: 11, Overall Rank: 85)
It may seem strange to see Martin here when, just a few days ago, I had him to the Packers with their third round pick, but these mocks are constantly evolving. Martin fills too big an obvious need to get past Denver here and while the Broncos would ideally want a player with a little bit better bulk, playing a 4-3 defense allows Martin to play alongside an end and tackle which masks some of his size limitations. Being in a 4-3 also helps make up for Martin's lack of ideal arm length because most of his movement will be confined inside. Martin is still one of my sleepers and would be a solid contributor on this defense. 

Overall 

Denver has some obvious needs at receiver and on defense, all of which are addressed here. Wright and Martin could be Day 1 starters while Johnson would have a chance to get significant playing time early. Based on value this is a decent to good draft (+3), but when you account for the fact that the team's biggest needs were also addressed, it becomes an excellent one. If the Broncos are able to find a suitable inside partner for Martin and another running back, the Broncos would have a pretty solid personnel base heading into 2012.

Final Thought

Tim Tebow went 7-4 with this team last year and the guy completed 46% of his passes. Another 8-8 season seems like the basement for this team assuming Manning can be the starter for 16 games. Even a much tougher schedule doesn't seem like it should hold the Broncos back from at least fighting for a wild card spot. If they can add a few skill position players and some beef on the defensive line, this is a balanced team. With Manning running the show, I expect they're also a team no one will want to play in December and January. While likely not a true "contender" in terms of the the NFL's tiers, Denver is at least a dark horse. Expect them to be dangerous.

2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus:Houston Texans

The Houston Texans have been a trendy playoff pick by the so-called experts for the last several years. With an explosive offense and a young defense, it was easy to see why so many thought this was a dangerous team.

2011 was the year they finally put it all together, thanks mostly to the help of an undrafted free agent and a coach who was run out of his last job.

Arian Foster, who slipped through the scouting cracks, is one of the most versatile players in football and leads the Texans' two-headed running back attack with Ben Tate.

But truly, the different between last year's team and any other Texan team was the defense, which finished in the top five in passing, rushing and total defense.

Wade Phillips, the sacrificial lamb in Dallas, turned around a pathetic defense and turned them into a championship level unit.

Adding Johnathan Joseph in free agency as well as J.J. Watt and Brooks Reed in the draft made this defense disruptive and dominating at times.

Even the loss of former #1 overall pick Mario Williams to injury was mitigated by the rise of third-year linebacker Connor Barwin, who played tight end in college.

General Manager Rick Smith doesn't get nearly enough credit for drafting and developing players as well as supplementing the team with free agents.
  
Offense
Houston has the best running game in football, the best wide receiver in football and a quarterback who, despite his talents, can't stay healthy.

Had Peyton Manning picked Houston, they'd become the favorite in the AFC without question. Even with a rookie 7th round pick last year, the Texans won a playoff game.

Matt Schaub is an above average quarterback, but can't stay on the field. Unfortunately, Andre Johnson has had similar problems staying healthy.

This is offense can still be effective because Foster and Tate are so good, but adding a receiver to compliment Johnson and a quarterback to groom are necessities for Houston.

Also, one of the more puzzling moves this offseason was the Texans cutting Eric Winston, one of the best right tackles in the game. Getting some help upfront will certainly be on the list of priorities for the draft.


Key Free Agents: Mike Brisiel G, Bryant Johnson WR, Chris Myers (re-signed w/ Texans), Neil Rackers K, Matt Turk P, Eric Winston OT (signed w/ Chiefs)  

Defense 

This defense was so good last season, Mario Williams season-ending injury didn't slow them down a bit. They have a powerful pair of outside linebackers and one of the best young defensive players in football in Watt.

Letting Williams walk in free agency would have been exceedingly disturbing if not for the dearth of young defensive talent.

Houston did trade Demeco Ryans to the Eagles in a somewhat surprising move, but apparently Ryans was not popular either with the coaches or the players. Getting a linebacker to shore up the middle should be on the list this offseason.

That list will also include an upgrade at safety and perhaps some added depth at corner despite the improvement in the pass defense last year.

Kareem Jackson played better than he showed as a rookie, but in a division with young, talented quarterbacks, loading up on corners is a smart move.

Key Free Agents: Jason Allen CB (signed w/ Bengals), Tim Dobbins ILB, Mario Williams DE/OLB (signed w/ Bills),

Draft Targets

Needs: S,WR,OL,DE,QB

Round 1 (Pick 26): Stephen Hill WR Georgia Tech (Pos. Rank 4, Overall Rank: 28)
Hill was miscast somewhat on a George Tech team built to run the ball. When Hill ran a 4.3 40 at the combine, scouts went back to look at the 6-4, 215 pound Hill burn corners deep repeatedly at Tech. Part of that obviously comes from a strong play action game, but with teams loading up to stop Foster and needing a double team on Johnson, Hill would have single coverage all game in this offense. Plus, he'd get to learn the position from the best in the business.

Round 2 (Pick 59): Zebrie Sanders OT Florida State (Pos. Rank: 6, Overall Rank: 61)

With Houston's surprising split with Winston, the Texan offensive line suddenly needs some help. Sanders is one of the high risk/high reward prospects in this draft with solid technique, excellent athleticism and high intangibles. His play simply didn't always measure up to his vast abilities. That being said, the Texans need the help and since Arian Foster could probably run through brick walls for 1,000 yards, Sanders can only help.


Round 3 (Pick 76 F/ Eagles): Brock Osweiler QB Arizona State (Pos. Rank: 6, Overall Rank: 80)
Don't be surprised at all to see Houston take a quarterback in the first three rounds. There are a couple of guys who are just a year or two away from starting and if Houston thinks it can contend right away, nabbing a Brandon Weeden in the second round isn't out of the question. If they're willing to be patient though, Osweiler could pay dividends. A massive kid with a big arm and outstanding athleticism for someone 6-7 (He originally committed to Gonzaga to play basketball), Osweiler has every  physical tool you could want. With a few years of seasoning and perhaps a few games of temporary fill-in work if Shaub gets hurt, he could be one of the steals of the draft.

Overall 

There are some reaches in this draft and the value (-8) isn't outstanding, but the upside is tremendous. All three could turn out to be solid starters and Osweiler, had he returned to school, may have been a first round pick in 2013. Moving up in the third round as part of the Demeco Ryans trade could give Houston the flexibility to grab a quarterback high, whether it's Osweiler or Foles, even Cousins if he falls. Expect some offensive help early in the draft and some defensive depth late.

Final Thought

Houston is the most balanced team in the AFC, boasting a terrific young offense and great young defense. Losing Mario Williams long-term could be a mistake, but Barwin and Reed were terrorizing off the edge last year with Watt and if the Texans can add a defensive back to the mix, that defense will be scary. If this team is healthy, they could win 12 or 13 games and have to be considered one of the favorites in the AFC after their taste of postseason success this past year.

2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: New Orleans Saints

It's hard to talk about the New Orleans offseason from a personnel standpoint when the only story of any importance right now is the fall-out from the biggest NFL scandal since Michael Vick was arrested for fighting dogs.

There's no catchy name for the bounty scandal (I don't like Bountygate), but the Saints did get caught paying each other to take out opposing players.

It's silly for current and former players to insist that it didn't happen when the coach and GM have both admitted it happened and the NFL has thousands of pages of e-mails and other documents proving it did.

Sean Payton will not coach in 2012, Gregg Williams may not coach ever again and the Saints will lose a second round pick this and in 2013.

The Saints, much like they had to following Hurricane Katrina, will still have to find a way to put together a team and coaching staff to play next year. Luckily, there is plenty talent on the roster. Unfortunately, Payton was one of the best coaches in the league and his creativity will be sorely missed.
  
Offense
As if the bounty scandal hadn't hit the Saints hard enough, New Orleans still doesn't have a long-term deal done with its franchise player Drew Brees.

Brees has yet to sign the franchise tender this spring and the sides apparently aren't even close on the numbers for a contract. Without Sean Payton, the best hope for the Saints this season relies on the intelligence and savvy of Drew Brees.

New Orleans did re-sign Marques Colston, but lost their deep threat, Robert Meachem, to the Chargers in free agency.

The Saints' best offensive lineman, Carl Nicks, also signed elsewhere, making this potent offense considerably more vulnerable heading into 2012. Ben Grubbs was signed from Baltimore to fill in for Nicks, but isn't nearly the kind of All-Pro presence.

Adding depth along the offensive line along with perhaps another receiver will be the Saints' biggest priorities. That is, of course, once they sign the best player in the history of their franchise.
 
Key Free Agents: Marques Colston (re-signed w/ Saints) John Gilmore TE, John Kasey K, Robert Meachem (signed w/ Chargers) Carl Nicks G (signed w/ Buccaneers) Courtney Roby WR/KR 

Defense 

Questions about this defense may not be fully fleshed out until we hear what, if any, penalties the players will face for their part in the bounties allegedly paid for knocking out opposing players.

Jonathan Vilma was supposedly the ring-leader of the bounty system and is the most likely to be suspended. Making matters worse, linebacker is probably the thinnest position on the New Orleans roster and a target for this offseason.

Atlantla's stand-out middle linebacker Curtis Lofton was signed in anticipation of a major move from the league related to Vilma and will be a welcome upgrade to the team's rush defense.

Broderick Bunkly was also signed to shore up the middle of the New Orlean's defensive line long-term. That leaves outside linebacker, a pass rusher, and depth in the secondary as the biggest holes on defense, particularly with Tracy Porter leaving for Denver.

When you give up 36 points to a 49ers team that usually scored in the teens, there's a serious problem with your pass defense.

Key Free Agents: Jonathan Casillas OLB, Turk McBride DL, Tracy Porter CB (signed w/ Broncos) 

Draft Targets

Needs: DL,DB,LB,OL,WR

Round 1 (Pick 21): Traded to New England for Mark Ingram

Round 2 (Pick 59): Forfeited in NFL bounty scandal

Round 3 (Pick 90): Dwight Bentley CB La-Lafayette (Pos. Rank: 13, Overall Rank: 92)
With no picks until the third round, New Orleans has likely already zeroed in on a group of players they believe will be available here. Likely, a defensive upgrade in the secondary will be the target, although a linebacker may be just as likely. Bentley is a small-school prospect who is a little undersized, but runs a 4.4 40 and has the quickness to stay with receivers. He may be a perfect fit as a slot corner early in his career and can transition into a starter as he gets bigger and stronger.

Overall 

It's hard to really assess this draft with only one selection in the top 100. The Saints will probably continue to create depth by signing veteran players in free agency, but a player like Bentley, with his speed, could be a solid role player for the Saints. Improving the defense will be the top priority in the draft, so expect an infusion of talent to try and erase the names and faces associated with the bounty fiasco. Getting a deep threat receiver would also make sense given the departure of Robert Meachem. If there is a lineman with value available - there wasn't in my mock - he would be worth a shot here too.

Final Thought
Sean Payton and Drew Brees have pulled New Orleans back from the brink and turned them into perennial contenders. Payton is out for the year and Brees doesn't have a contract - it's even unclear whether or not he'd sign the franchise tender before the season started. Without the scandal, expectations for the Saints would have and should have been that they'd be a Super Bowl contender. With all of the upheaval in Nola, those expectations ought to be tempered and there are still holes to address. If this defense can be improved, the Saints have enough talent to be a factor in the NFC playoff race once again. 

2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Green Bay Packers

The prohibitive Super Bowl favorite coming into 2011, the Green Bay Packers chased perfection for 13 weeks, then they did something in their first playoff that they had only done once all season: they lost.

An anti-climactic finish belies the fact that this Packer team had the greatest regular season in team history, quite a feat when you consider the Lambeau, Lombardi and Holmgren teams that have played there.

Head Coach Mike McCarthy is probably the most underrated coach in the league and has done nothing but win since he took over for Mike Sherman in 2006, getting to the NFC Championship game in his second season and winning a championship in his fifth season.

His offense is arguably the best in the league with the best quarterback in football and if the defense can do anything to improve, you can expect another double-digit win season and a deep playoff run.

With just a few places to address in order to improve the worst pass defense in history, the Packers will be able to focus in on those needs and Ted Thompson has already shown a willingness to be aggressive this offseason having signed two (!) free agents to this point. 
  
Offense
Aaron Rodgers might be the best player in football. That's basically everything you need to know about this offense. Rodgers played as well as any quarterback ever last year and this offense is loaded with skill position players from Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson to Jermichael Finley and James Starks.

The offensive line has some solid players, but only Josh Sitton is considered elite at his position. Bryan Bulaga is one of the best young tackles in football, but couldn't stay healthy last year and rookie Derek Sherrod broke his leg in a gruesome injury.

Green Bay signed Jeff Saturday to fill the void left by Scott Wells who signed with St. Louis. Saturday is a veteran who, while getting up in age, can still play at a high level.

Getting a running back to pair with Starks will likely be on Thompson's agenda in the draft with Ryan Grant being shown the door.

Adding depth to the offensive line looks like the only other place where this offense could use some help. This is one of the few teams where essentially every starter from last year on offense will be back.
 
Key Free Agents: Matt Flynn QB (signed w/Seahawks), Ryan Grant RB, Scott Wells C (signed w/ Rams)

Defense 

Personnel-wise, this wasn't a dramatically different defense in 2011 than it was in 2010, when the Packers finished best in the league against the pass.

Coming off a historically putrid season stopping opposing quarterbacks, the Packers will be looking to upgrade a pass rush that was non-existent last season.

This secondary, if Nick Collins is cleared to play, has some of the best playmakers in the league at created turnovers. They lead the league in takeaways and interceptions last year thanks in large part to an aggressive, gambling secondary.

Last season, losing Cullen Jenkins while getting nothing from the ROLB position allowed opposing quarterbacks just enough time to get to a secondary that can be susceptible to double moves.

Expect Ted Thompson to get a player for every level of his defense this offseason.


Key Free Agents:Jarrett Bush DB (signed w/ Packers), Howard Green DT, Pat Lee CB (signed w/ Raiders), Erik Walden OLB

Draft Targets

Needs: OLB,DL,DB,OL,RB

Round 1 (Pick 28): Nick Perry OLB/DE USC (Pos. Rank 4, Overall Rank: 27)
Green Bay already has a dominant pass rusher from USC and Perry, while a little raw, may actually have better physical tools than Clay Matthews. In fact, he's somewhat similar to Packers linebacker coach Kevin Greene as a strong, overpowering outside linebacker. Perry has plus speed and explosion, but needs to use his hands better to ward off blocks. This would make quite the combination for opposing offenses to try and block.

Round 2 (Pick 59): Chris Polk RB Washington (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 60)

Truly a value pick here. Green Bay lost Alex Greene last year to a knee injury and Ryan Grant is getting up in age. Polk is a versatile, physical runner who can also be effective out of the backfield. McCarthy likes to use multiple running backs and ride the hot hand, which means the Packers using a draft pick on a running back shouldn't be at all surprising. Also, none of the running backs on the roster, even if Grant were brought back, have shown the ability to stay healthy.
 
Round 3 (Pick 90): Mike Martin DT Michigan (Pos. Rank: 11, Overall Rank: 85)
This is one of my sleepers in the draft. Martin is a former wrestler and you can see it in how he plays. Some believe he's an undersized nose tackle, but he run a sub 4.9 40 at the combine and has the athletic ability to slide outside in the Packers' 3-4 defense. Furthermore, Martin's ability to stay low and use his hands to ward off blockers should help keep offensive lineman off Green Bay's linebackers. This could end up being a steal.

Overall 

No one drafts with value in mind better than Ted Thompson with his best player available strategy. It's how Green Bay wound up with players like Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson. In this draft, there will be more opportunities for value with the draft loaded with defensive front players, a weak area for Green Bay. Getting an outside linebacker like Nick Perry with his strength opposite Clay Matthews would be a coup and Mike Martin is a tremendous value in the third round. In terms of value, this is a solid draft (5+) not to mention giving the Packers at least two starters, while Polk could be key in McCarthy's stable approach to running backs. I wouldn't be shocked to see Thompson package a few picks to move up and get the outside linebacker he most fancies.

Final Thought

New York may be the favorite in the NFC, but Green Bay has beaten New York two out of the last three time they played and Green Bay has the younger, more talented team. While the Lions and Bears both will be better in 2012, the Packers remain the favorite in the NFC North and should be in the mix once again for home field advantage in the playoffs. Packer fans will anxiously await to see which pass rusher Thompson brings in to help this defense rebound. Get a difference maker and this Packer team could be scary good once again.

2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Baltimore Ravens

Heading into every offseason, Baltimore fans seem to say the same thing: "We're a _____ away from the Super Bowl."

It's a team perpetually one piece away from reaching the mountain top. This year, Torrey Smith and Lee Evans were brought in fill in the blanks in Baltimore. Evans was a disappointment and Smith was explosive, albeit inconsistent.

Baltimore, much like the 49ers did against New York, actually outplayed New England for 98% of the AFC Championship game.

To me, I'm not sold on the Joe Flacco/Cam Cameron marriage because one doesn't seem to have a clue what the other is thinking.

The Raven's defense has slowly filled in pieces that it had lost over the last decade since it won a Super Bowl and if Ray Lewis and Ed Reed can stay healthy, this will once again be a terrorizing defense.

Offense

As a mentioned, this is one of the more puzzling offenses in football. They can blow teams away with their skill at times, as they did against Pittsburgh to start the season. Other times, they look lost and lethargic.

Ray Rice was a legitimate MVP candidate last year and with Adrian Peterson hurt, not to mention Chris Johnson struggling, Rice has a legitimate case as the best running back in football.

Unfortunately, the help around him isn't being utilized. That being said, there isn't a lack of talent. Torrey Smith demolished the Steelers last year deep and has that kind of Mike Wallace speed that even NFL teams struggle to match.

Anquan Boldin and a stable of receiving tight ends compliment that nicely, but Cameron and Flacco can never seem to find the right plays to take advantage.

On talent alone, this is a solid offense at the skill positions, but after losing Grubbs to free agency and potentially losing Gurode, the biggest holes are in the trenches.

Key Free Agents: Matt Birk C (re-signed w/ Ravens), Lee Evans WR, Ben Grubbs (signed w/ Saints), Andre Gurode G, 

Defense 

Terrell Suggs, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed all still play for Baltimore and until they show considerable slippage in their play, I'm not going to hop on the wagon of pundits decreeing the death of Baltimore's stifling defense.

Suggs was one of the most dominant pass rushers in football last year and has been his whole career. If Lewis and Reed stay healthy, this is a defense with playmakers at every level.

Rookie cornerback Jimmy Smith looks like the talent we saw at Colorado and with this veteran team, appears to be maturing.

Pernell McPhee's rise last season has already filled the void left by Corey Redding's departure, but depth at defensive line is a question. The Ravens could also use a linebacker to fill in for Jarrett Johnson who left for San Diego.

Suggs, while still a force, would certainly benefit from having a linebacker opposite to ease the double teams on his side of the formation.

Key Free Agents:Jarrett Johnson OLB (signed w/ Chargers), Jameel McClain ILB (re-signed w/ Ravens), Corey Redding DE (signed w/ Colts), Carey Williams, Tom Zbikowski S (signed w/ Colts)

Draft Targets

Needs: OL,OLB,DB,RB,WR

Round 1 (Pick 29): Peter Konz C Wisconsin (Pos. Rank 1, Overall Rank: 29)
Matt Birk was re-signed, but will turn 36 in July. The interior of this line is the biggest offensive question and Konz, with outstanding athleticism and football acumen, can probably slide to guard if need be. The former Wisconsin stand-out  will be an ideal fit for this offense which loves to slide its lineman to use with Ray Rice in the screen game. Someone like Jerel Worthy may make sense here if they don't think Konz can play guard.


Round 2 (Pick 60): Bruce Irvin OLB West Virginia (Pos. Rank: 5, Overall Rank: 57)

Irvin doesn't get things done the same way Suggs does, but is about as athletic an outside linebacker as you'll find to put in this 3-4 system and with terrific defensive lineman in front of him could be a terror. Irvin has 4.4 speed and can move like a safety, although his ability to cover is a question mark. Miscast as an end in college, Irvin is explosive off the edge and with Suggs' brute strength and push opposite him, Irvin would get plenty of 1-on-1 match-ups to exploit. 

Round 3 (Pick 91): Juron Criner WR Arizona (Pos. Rank: 12, Overall Rank: 86)
This is a bit of a luxury pick, but Baltimore could use a big-bodied receiver to make plays in the red zone. Boldin is a physical player, but not the kind of guy you can expect to throw it up to and have him make a play. Criner, at 6-4, is the kind of red zone threat the Ravens lack, although he also lacks the speed this offense doesn't have outside of Smith. If a slot receiver like Joe Adams is here at this point, he might make more sense.

Overall 

One of the keys to Baltimore's success over the last decade is their ability to draft well. All three of these picks have value, a luxury truly born out the Raven's flexibility. When you  have very few pressing needs to fill, you can basically cherry pick players who fall. The total value of these first three picks would be among the best in the draft (8+) and would give Baltimore the kind of talent influx that would have Ravens fans feeling confident about their need to fill in the blanks.

Final Thought

If Baltimore just stood pat this offseason, they'd probably still be a playoff team in 2012. On the other hand, some key pieces have already departed, with others potentially on their way out. A solid draft, as Baltimore usually has, will position the Ravens as favorites in the AFC North and Super Bowl contenders. If Torrey Smith in particular can make a jump next season, Baltimore has to be considered the cream of the AFC crop with the Patriots.

2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: San Francisco 49ers

The Bay area is back in a big way thanks to Jim Harbaugh and a stiffing defense.

San Francisco hasn't been a  consistently competent franchise since Steve Young was forced from the game (the brief respite with Jeff Garcia doesn't count), and with Harbaugh in place with a slew of young talent, the 49ers are poised to regain their place as perennial powers.

Alex Smith finally played well at quarterback, though is still vastly disappointing as a #1 overall pick. The running game with Frank Gore was tremendous and Smith never made killer mistakes.

With a defense as good as San Fran's, that was usually enough.

Getting better offensively, particularly becoming more explosive, will allow this team to be a major factor again in the NFC.

Offense

In one phrase, San Francisco's offense last year was "good enough." They didn't turn the ball over and scored better than you might think, finishing 11th overall in points scored.

Still, the passing game was lackluster, finishing 29th in the league in yards, despite Alex Smith's efficiency. Adding Randy Moss and Mario Manningham in free agency was a big step forward.

Moss is basically a no-risk move since anything he brings them is an added bonus. If he can stretch the field vertically, he will open up the middle of the field for Vernon Davis who already is a freak athlete and can't be covered by a linebacker.

Manningham will fill the underneath routes, but can also get over the top of defenses as he showed making the decisive catch in the Super Bowl.

Expect the 49ers to maintain their identity as a run-first team, but if Smith can improve in Year 2 with Harbaugh, expect more big plays from this offense. If they can turn those plays into points, I don't see too many teams being able to score enough on their defense to beat the Niners.

Key Free Agents: Braylon Edwards WR, Ted Ginn Jr. WR, Josh Morgan (signed w/ Washington), Chilo Rachal G,  

Defense 

Everyone is back and this defense will only get better. Pick up a corner in the draft for depth and a team that, heading into last season looked like a bubble playoff team, would head into 2012 as a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

Aldon Smith was a revelation as a rookie rushing the passer and with Justin Smith, forms one of the best DL/OLB combinations in the league.

The front seven is physically imposing, dominating and nasty. You just can't run on them and when you do pass, they get after you in a big way.

I continue to be dubious of the secondary and expect that a guy like Carlos Rogers, who just got paid, will revert to his Redskin form dropping interceptions and struggling to stay healthy. It's called reverting to the mean. Even so, this pass rush is good enough to cover up the secondary's lack of elite-level talent.

This is a championship defense. Period.

Key Free Agens: Reggie Smith S, Carlos Rogers (re-signed w/ 49ers), Tavares Gooden (re-signed w/ 49ers),

Draft Targets

Needs: CB,OL,S,RB,DL,TE

Round 1 (Pick 30): Coby Fleener TE Stanford (Pos. Rank 1, Overall Rank: 32)
This may seem too obvious with the Harbaugh/Stanford connection, not to mention that the 49ers already have one of the elite tight ends in the league, but there isn't value at the other available positions and as the Patriots proved, two tight ends are better than one. Fleener is a terrific receiving tight end and would be a nightmare for defenses to defend alongside Davis. Stephon Gilmore from South Carolina, who can also return kicks, would make sense here too.

Round 2 (Pick 61): Kelechi Osemeli OL Iowa State (Pos. Rank: 5, Overall Rank: 63)
As I mentioned above, Chilo Rachal is a free agent and Anthony Davis hasn't been the kind of franchise player the 49ers hoped when they used an early first round draft pick on him. Osemeli can play guard or tackle (in the event San Francisco chooses to give up on Davis), making him a versatile option for this offense that relies so heavily on winning upfront. Good value here at a need position, especially on a team without many holes. 

Round 3 (Pick 92): Tyrone Crawford DE Boise State (Pos. Rank: 11, Overall Rank: 95)
If I were picking and Brock Osweiler fell to me here, I'd take him because I don't think Colin Kaepernick is the future of this franchise. Osweiler, a big-time talent, could be. San Francisco, though, will likely be looking to add depth to a defensive front which relies heavily on Justin Smith's ability to wreck opposing offensive lines (which he does regularly). Ray McDonald, who plays opposite him, is a solid player, underrated even. On the other hand, depth at that position is scare and Crawford is a big body, without a really quick burst upfield. He uses his hands well and can play that defensive end position in the 49ers 3-4 defense which allows their linebackers so much room to make plays.

Overall 

From a value standpoint, this isn't a tremendous draft when you consider where players ranked and where the Niners will have picked them (-7). On the other hand, as I type this, Fleener, at 6'6'' is running a wind-aided sub 4.5 40 yard dash at his pro day. His value at 30 is almost certainly understated here. Furthermore, both Crawford and Osemeli are versatile players who can help San Francisco at positions of need right away. When you have a team already full of talent, you can reach to fill holes.

Final Thought

Without much help, San Francisco would have been the favorite to win the NFC West and a threat to take the entire NFC. Adding Randy Moss and Mario Manningham solidifies their standing as a contender in the NFC, if not one of the favorites. Depth is a question at some positions, which means an injury could derail their season. If the 49ers can use the draft to build up some of that depth and supplement an already loaded roster, expected another double-digit win season and playoff run for this burgeoning young power.

2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: New England Patriots

It wasn't always pretty for the Patriots, but, as they usually do under Bill Belichick, the Patriots kept winning games.

The singular abilities of Tom Brady and his devastating duo of tight ends were enough to make up for the historically putrid defense New England played..

As they seem to every year, New England has a glut of draft picks that they'll likely use to trade for more draft picks because Belichik hoards picks like he needs a TLC show.

This year though, the Pats face enormous turnover on their roster with at least three offensive starters hitting free agency and essentially the entire defensive front also winding up on the open market, there are more holes than normal to fill. 

Brady's brilliance should be enough to carry this team to another 10+ win season even with a bad defense and the turnover on this defense is actually a positive. Getting younger and more dynamic upfront will prevent Brady from having to win games by himself and luckily for the Pats, this year's draft is loaded with defensive lineman.
 

Offense

Tom Brady. Wes Welker. Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez. That's enough. It was enough last year and it'll be enough this year assuming the Patriots are satisfied with chucking it 40+ times a game. 

The offensive line didn't play as well last year as it had in years past, but having two tight ends allowed the Patriots to keep one in to block against some of the elite defenses. 

Adding a running back who can be a legitimate threat would certainly help this offense, as would a deep-threat at wide receiver. There has been talk that Mike Wallace could be in play for the Patriots and that they'd be willing to pay a heavy price to get him. 

Adding a speed receiver of Mike Wallace's caliber would make this offense look a lot like that '07 team that torched people...only better.
Key Free Agents: Deion Branch WR, BenJarvis Green-Ellis RB, Dan Koppen C, 

Defense 

Unlike on Patriot teams of the early 2000's, there isn't a single player on the defense where you can say, "This is one of the elite guys at his position."

Ty Law and Lawyer Milloy aren't walking through that door.

There just really isn't a blue-chip player on this defense and that was a big reason this team would up 31st against the pass last year.If not for a shoot-out in Week 17 for the Packers defense, this Patriots defense would have been the worst ever defending the pass.

Without a pass-rush or even enough bodies to suit up a full roster in the secondary, it's amazing New England was able to even stay in games.

Now, basically the entire defensive line outside of Vince Wilfork is headed for free agency and Wilfork is on the wrong side of 30 for a man his size. Getting more explosive upfront, bringing in players to rush the passer will help take pressure off of a weak secondary.

The Patriots have enough picks early ( five in the first 100 picks) to address both needs.
 
Key Free Agens:Shaun Ellis DE, Andre Carter DE, Mark Anderson DE, Gerard Warren DT,Gary Guyton LB, Tracy White LB,James Ihedigbo S

Draft Targets

Needs: DL,DB,OL,LB,WR,RB

Round 1 (Pick 27) F/New Orleans: Whitney Mercilus DE/OLB Illinois (Pos. Rank 3, Overall Rank: 25)
I think we should expect the Patriots to take the guy they have as the top-rated pass rusher left on the board here assuming there's value in the pick. Mercilus lead the nation in sacks last year at Illinois and showed at the combine he has more athletic tools than his tape might show. A 4-3 end who has plenty of room to grow is exactly what could jump-start this defense.

Round 1 (Pick 31): Jerel Worthy DT Michigan State  (Pos. Rank: 5, Overall Rank: 30)
Yikes. Jerel Worthy was one of the most dominant inside players in the nation the past two years and was once considered a top 15 pick. His motor runs a little hot and cold, but when he's locked in, he's a dominating force, as he showed against Wisconsin's outstanding offensive line this year. Worthy can clog the middle as well as penetrate, especially when he'll get a ton of 1-on-1 opportunities playing next to Wilfork.

Round 2 (Pick 48) F/ Oakland: Alfonzo Dennard CB Nebraska (Pos. Rank: 6, Overall Rank: 51)
Though it's a slight reach by value, I like this pick for the Patriots because it allows them to get a player who can play both corner and safety. Given that Dennard lacks elite speed, some teams see him as a safety, where the Patriots hardly had enough players to put 11 on the field. Dennard is physical and tough, but doesn't have great ball skills. With all of the specialty defensive packages teams use to stop creative offenses, Dennard could slide in as a nickel corner who specializes in covering elite tight ends, without giving up much defending the run.

Round 2 (Pick 63): George Iloka S Boise State (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 66)
Iloka is another player who has some hybrid skills. There were some questions about his athletic ability and some scouts thought he might be a linebacker in the NFL. When he ran the 40 in 4.66, he put to rest some of those doubts, but Iloka's niche at the next level will likely be as a box safety. He's played against some questionable talent, but he was a leader of a really underrated defense in Boise. His versatility and instincts would be a welcome addition to Bill Belichick's defense.
 

Round 3 (Pick 94): Shea McClellin OLB/DE Boise State (Pos. Rank: 10, Overall Rank: 90)

While I'm not sure if McClellin is an ideal fit for the Patriots since they switched back to a 4-3 defense, McClellin's pass rushing abilities are on an elite list in this draft. Whether he plays linebacker much like Von Miller in Denver, or they convert him to end, McClellin actually ran a faster 40 than his teammate Iloka, meaning he has the speed to play linebacker in the NFL if needed. The Patriots front seven is a mess and for someone with his athletic skills and relentless motor, Belichick would have no problem being creative with such a versatile player.


Overall 

Landing a deep threat receiver is the only thing this draft would lack for the Patriots. However, from a value standpoint, New England does come out net positive (1+) while addressing their most pressing needs defensively. I could certainly see the Pats being a team to trade up for one of the elite pass rushers like Courtney Upshaw or one of the elite corners like Janoris Jenkins or Dre Kirkpatrick. On the other hand, standing pat (no pun intended), allows New England to cherry-pick talent at the deep defensive line and defensive back positions.

Final Thought

Even if Peyton Manning doesn't wind up in Miami, the AFC East will likely be a dogfight this year. New England will be trying to incorporate a lot of new faces, particularly defensively while the cohesion on the other three teams will be much higher. On the other hand, Gronk and Hernandez are in their primes and Brady showed last year he's not over the hill, meaning the Patriots should once again be the favorite to come out of the AFC.

2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: New York Giants

Not since the last time the Giants won the Super Bowl has such a flawed team won the Lombardi trophy. The narrative was that the Super Bowl was won by the arm of Eli Manning, but the season was nearly torpedo's by that same limb.

New York wasn't a particularly dominant passing team in 2011, based mostly on the erratic play of its quarterback and an inconsistent running game.

New York lost to the Seahawks and the Redskins twice thanks to heinous play from Manning, but beat New England twice, Green Bay in Lambeau and San Francisco thanks in large part to the clutch plays made by Eli. 

As power continues to shift toward the NFC, the odds that New York can make another run in 2012 without making some changes seems particularly unlikely. 

Furthermore, New York will be picking much later in the draft than their record (9-7) dictates they should. The Giants are also right up against a tight salary cap. 

Defensively, the Giants regressed considerably last year and the running game will have to get better if the Giants have any chance of repeating. 

Offense

New York seemed to hit its stride in the postseason running the football after finishing last in the league during the regular season. Both Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs averaged better than 4 yards per carry, getting a combined 100 attempts in four games.

Manning and the Giants' trio of wide receivers took advantage with a huge postseason run. After throwing 16 interceptions in the regular season, Manning threw just 1 the entire postseason while also tossing 9 touchdowns while completing 65% of his passes.

Brandon Jacobs was released, Mario Manningham is not expected back, both of New York's top tight ends are recovering from ACL injuries and the offensive line needs work. An injection of young into the line and tight end could help both Manning and the running game. 

Key Free Agents: Mario Manningham WR, Kareem McKenzie OT  

Defense 

Don't be fooled into thinking New York's run this season was thanks to the defense either. It's just not true. The Giants pass rush can be devastating, but they managed just 11 sacks in 4 postseason games and were lackluster for most of the season, finishing 29th in the NFL against the pass, 27th in yards allowed and 25th in point allowed. 

That's hardly championship defense. The good news for the Giants is Jason Pierre-Paul is only going to get better and he's already one of the most singularly-dominant defensive talents in football. On the other hand, Football Outsiders ranks the Giants as the 10th best pass rushing team by efficiency last season and 20th against the run.

Furthermore, the secondary is vulnerable, not to mention fragile. Terrell Thomas missed all of last year with an ACL injury and will be a free agent this offseason. Aaron Ross played through injuries and 2010 1st round pick Prince Amukamara broke his foot, missing much of last season. 

New York's linebacker group is also nothing to write home about and benefits from playing behind such a solid defensive front. Two starters from that group will be free agents this summer and    

Key Free Agens: Terrell Thomas CB, Jonathan Goff LB, Chase Blackburn LB, Dave Tollefson DE, Aaron Ross CB

Draft Targets

Needs: OL,CB,TE,LB,RB,WR

Round 1 (Pick 32): Levonte David LB Nebraska (Pos. Rank 2, Overall Rank: 33)
David has been one of the more underrated prospects all year. He's athletic, instinctive and if he were a few pounds bigger, would probably be a lock for the first round. With the Giants linebacker situation in such flux, grabbing David at the end of the first would allow New York to take advantage of the depth in this draft at other positions of need.

Round 2 (Pick 64): Orson Charles TE Georgia  (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 59)
With no dependable tight end on the roster, the Giants have a chance to grab the most physically gifted of the tight ends in this year's class. Charles is the smooth athlete Beckham is, but still has much of the size and strength Ballard provides. Charles would be a perfect fit in this offense opening up the middle of the field for Nicks and Cruz.

Round 3 (Pick 95): Mike Brewster G/C Ohio State (Pos. Rank 3, Overall Rank: 99)
A little bit of a reach here, but New York struggled running the ball last year in part because the offensive line play regressed. All three interior starters along the front are over 30 and getting a smart, physical player from a big-time program could help provide some depth in the short term, as well as be a starter down the road.

Overall 
From a value standpoint and based on my rankings, this draft is a solid one for the Giants. Unfortunately for New York, some of the deepest positions in this draft aren't in areas of need. Still though, the above picks represent a net value of 0, a sum of the difference between where they were drafted and where they were ranked overall. For a well-balanced team coming off a Super Bowl win and picking last in most rounds, that's a pretty solid number while still addressing areas of need. 

Final Thought

Winning the NFC East next year will be even more difficult given the pressure on the Cowboys and Eagles to make serious noise or risk massive shake-ups to the organization. New York has an elite quarterback who can win you games, but will also melt down a handful of times a season. Getting better in the back end defensively and upfront offensively will go a long way to helping the Giants enter 2012 as front-runners for the NFC title.