Thursday, March 29, 2012

2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Detroit Lions

Starting with Detroit, every subsequent team on this list is in need of improvement if they want to compete next season.

Of those teams, Detroit may be the closest, coming off a playoff appearance for the first time in almost a generation for the Lions.

The core of this team is young and ultra-talented with players like Calvin Johnson, Matthew Stafford and Ndamukong Suh.

On the other hand, the defensive back seven is severely lacking in talent and the offensive line needs some help as well.

Calvin Johnson is one of the most unique physical talents in the NFL's long history, a unique mix of Terrell Owens and Randy Moss, only without the diva attitudes.

The biggest diva on this team is actually Detroit's head coach Jim Schwartz who nearly came to blows with 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh last year over a handshake.

Suh was suspended for stomping a Packer player - after shoving his helmet into the turf - and was voted the NFL's dirtiest player by the players themselves.

There appears to be some issues with institutional control in Detroit and the gross amount of personal foul penalties this team has accumulated over the past few seasons speaks to a lack of discipline.

That being said, the Lions, including their head coach, are loaded with talent and if they can mature, and figure to be a dangerous team for years to come. 
   
Offense
Detroit was a top five offense last year despite finish third to last running the football. They've used two high draft picks on running backs with no success and part of the reason is neither has been able to stay healthy.

A lack of elite talent on the offensive line doesn't help either, but frankly, the best way for this offense to be successful is to throw the ball to Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew and Titus Young.

There are some concerns that this team cannot move the ball effectively and relies too heavily on big plays to score. Getting a possession receiver to pair with the deep speed of Titus Young should open up lanes for Megatron and Pettigrew.

If this backfield is healthy, there is versatile talent with Jahvid Best and Mikel LeShoure, but it seems only logical to draft a back even if it's not in the first few rounds. A quarterback also makes some sense in the mid rounds given that Stafford has an injury history and both of Detroit's back-ups are exiting in free agency.

Offense wasn't a problem for the Lions last season, but there are some spots they can afford to upgrade. If they can, Detroit belongs in the same conversation with the Saints and Packers as the best offenses in the league.


Key Free Agents: Jeff Backus OT (re-signed w/ Lions), Leonard Davis G, Will Heller TE (re-signed w/ Lions), Shaun Hill QB, Maurice Morris RB, Kevin Smith RB (re-signed w/ Lions), Drew Stanton QB (signed w/ Jets, traded to Colts), Maurice Stovall WR, 

Defense 
Despite boasting perhaps the best front four in football, Detroit's defense was the biggest deficiency for the Lions in 2011. Suh being suspended certainly didn't help, but with Cliff Avril, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Corey Williams and Nick Fairley, there was enough talent upfront to be a good, or even great defense.

The reason the Lions weren't an elite defense was the back seven is a major problem. Stephen Tulloch is the only above average starters in that group with Eric Wright leaving in free agency.

Talent, more than scheme or execution, is the biggest reason Detroit finished 23rd in points allowed and 22nd in passing.

Detroit did sign Jacob Lacey, but the former Colts corner isn't anything special and getting some young talent in the back end of the defense to match the front end would go a long way in making this a more complete team.

Key Free Agents: Bobby Carpenter OLB, Erik Coleman CB (re-signed w/ Lions), Andre Fluellen DT (re-signed w/ Lions), DeAndre Levy OLB, Brandon McDonald CB, Stephen Tulloch MLB (re-signed w/ Lions), Eric Wright CB (signed w/ Buccaneers). 

Draft Targets
Needs: DB,LB,RB,WR,OL
Round 1 (Pick 23): Dont'a Hightower ILB Alabama (Pos. Rank 2, Overall Rank: 26)
There has been some speculation that Hightower might actually go ahead of his Alabama teammate Courtney Upshaw, which would make this pick even more valuable than it seems right now. Hightower is an explosive, powerful linebacker who plays downhill all the time. He's exactly the type of aggressive, physical player the Lions need and although he played the middle of Alabama's defense, certainly has the athletic abilities to move outside at the next level.

Round 2 (Pick 56): Rueben Randle WR LSU (Pos. Rank: 7, Overall Rank: 54)
After running what some scouts said was a 4.33 40 at his pro day, Randle may not fall this far. If he does though, Detroit would be wise to draft him, filling the possession receiver role Nate Burleson was supposed to occupy. Randle has the speed to get deep, but at 6-4 can be a target across the middle and draw safeties away from Calvin Johnson. On third and eight with Megatron facing a double team, Randle could be a go-to receiver with his ability to beat single coverage on intermediate routes.

Round 3 (Pick 85): Vontaze Burfict LB Arizona State (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 89)
If there's a place that doesn't need another hot-headed defensive player it's Detroit. If there's a place where they don't seem to care if you have a short fuse, it's also Detroit. Burfict was considered a top 20 talent heading into the year, but inconsistent play, not to mention a propensity to let his emotions get away from him, have him plummeting down draft boards. A below average post-season set of workouts has actually spurred some teams to remove him from their boards completely. He's somewhat redundant with Hightower and Tulloch, but from a talent standpoint, this is an absolute steal in the third round.

Overal
The value in this draft isn't terrific, but with the stock of Randle and Hightower rising, I would say it's better than the numbers (-5) indicate. Between Burfict and Hightower you have at least one starter and potentially two down the road. If you pair Randle with Johnson and put Titus Young in the slot, that's a scary group as well so this draft would make Detroit better at areas of need. Getting an offensive lineman would be nice, as would a running back and quarterback to develop.

Final Thought
Maturity should be the word of the offseason for Detroit. Can they mature? If they can be more disciplined, eliminate the silly penalties, the personal fouls, and execute, they have the talent to match any team in the NFC. Targeting a few players to help in the secondary and linebacker could help really improve a defense that already boasts one of the best pass rushes in the league. Another double-digit season and a shot at the playoffs seem likely, depending on whether or not Matthew Stafford can stay healthy. Teams in the NFC saw last year what the Lions are capable of. They are a year older, and if they are a year wiser, look out.

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