Saturday, March 24, 2012

2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Green Bay Packers

The prohibitive Super Bowl favorite coming into 2011, the Green Bay Packers chased perfection for 13 weeks, then they did something in their first playoff that they had only done once all season: they lost.

An anti-climactic finish belies the fact that this Packer team had the greatest regular season in team history, quite a feat when you consider the Lambeau, Lombardi and Holmgren teams that have played there.

Head Coach Mike McCarthy is probably the most underrated coach in the league and has done nothing but win since he took over for Mike Sherman in 2006, getting to the NFC Championship game in his second season and winning a championship in his fifth season.

His offense is arguably the best in the league with the best quarterback in football and if the defense can do anything to improve, you can expect another double-digit win season and a deep playoff run.

With just a few places to address in order to improve the worst pass defense in history, the Packers will be able to focus in on those needs and Ted Thompson has already shown a willingness to be aggressive this offseason having signed two (!) free agents to this point. 
  
Offense
Aaron Rodgers might be the best player in football. That's basically everything you need to know about this offense. Rodgers played as well as any quarterback ever last year and this offense is loaded with skill position players from Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson to Jermichael Finley and James Starks.

The offensive line has some solid players, but only Josh Sitton is considered elite at his position. Bryan Bulaga is one of the best young tackles in football, but couldn't stay healthy last year and rookie Derek Sherrod broke his leg in a gruesome injury.

Green Bay signed Jeff Saturday to fill the void left by Scott Wells who signed with St. Louis. Saturday is a veteran who, while getting up in age, can still play at a high level.

Getting a running back to pair with Starks will likely be on Thompson's agenda in the draft with Ryan Grant being shown the door.

Adding depth to the offensive line looks like the only other place where this offense could use some help. This is one of the few teams where essentially every starter from last year on offense will be back.
 
Key Free Agents: Matt Flynn QB (signed w/Seahawks), Ryan Grant RB, Scott Wells C (signed w/ Rams)

Defense 

Personnel-wise, this wasn't a dramatically different defense in 2011 than it was in 2010, when the Packers finished best in the league against the pass.

Coming off a historically putrid season stopping opposing quarterbacks, the Packers will be looking to upgrade a pass rush that was non-existent last season.

This secondary, if Nick Collins is cleared to play, has some of the best playmakers in the league at created turnovers. They lead the league in takeaways and interceptions last year thanks in large part to an aggressive, gambling secondary.

Last season, losing Cullen Jenkins while getting nothing from the ROLB position allowed opposing quarterbacks just enough time to get to a secondary that can be susceptible to double moves.

Expect Ted Thompson to get a player for every level of his defense this offseason.


Key Free Agents:Jarrett Bush DB (signed w/ Packers), Howard Green DT, Pat Lee CB (signed w/ Raiders), Erik Walden OLB

Draft Targets
Needs: OLB,DL,DB,OL,RB

Round 1 (Pick 28): Nick Perry OLB/DE USC (Pos. Rank 4, Overall Rank: 27)
Green Bay already has a dominant pass rusher from USC and Perry, while a little raw, may actually have better physical tools than Clay Matthews. In fact, he's somewhat similar to Packers linebacker coach Kevin Greene as a strong, overpowering outside linebacker. Perry has plus speed and explosion, but needs to use his hands better to ward off blocks. This would make quite the combination for opposing offenses to try and block.

Round 2 (Pick 59): Chris Polk RB Washington (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 60)
Truly a value pick here. Green Bay lost Alex Greene last year to a knee injury and Ryan Grant is getting up in age. Polk is a versatile, physical runner who can also be effective out of the backfield. McCarthy likes to use multiple running backs and ride the hot hand, which means the Packers using a draft pick on a running back shouldn't be at all surprising. Also, none of the running backs on the roster, even if Grant were brought back, have shown the ability to stay healthy.
 
Round 3 (Pick 90): Mike Martin DT Michigan (Pos. Rank: 11, Overall Rank: 85)
This is one of my sleepers in the draft. Martin is a former wrestler and you can see it in how he plays. Some believe he's an undersized nose tackle, but he run a sub 4.9 40 at the combine and has the athletic ability to slide outside in the Packers' 3-4 defense. Furthermore, Martin's ability to stay low and use his hands to ward off blockers should help keep offensive lineman off Green Bay's linebackers. This could end up being a steal.
Overall 
No one drafts with value in mind better than Ted Thompson with his best player available strategy. It's how Green Bay wound up with players like Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson. In this draft, there will be more opportunities for value with the draft loaded with defensive front players, a weak area for Green Bay. Getting an outside linebacker like Nick Perry with his strength opposite Clay Matthews would be a coup and Mike Martin is a tremendous value in the third round. In terms of value, this is a solid draft (5+) not to mention giving the Packers at least two starters, while Polk could be key in McCarthy's stable approach to running backs. I wouldn't be shocked to see Thompson package a few picks to move up and get the outside linebacker he most fancies.

Final Thought
New York may be the favorite in the NFC, but Green Bay has beaten New York two out of the last three time they played and Green Bay has the younger, more talented team. While the Lions and Bears both will be better in 2012, the Packers remain the favorite in the NFC North and should be in the mix once again for home field advantage in the playoffs. Packer fans will anxiously await to see which pass rusher Thompson brings in to help this defense rebound. Get a difference maker and this Packer team could be scary good once again.

No comments: