Thursday, March 22, 2012

2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: San Francisco 49ers


The Bay area is back in a big way thanks to Jim Harbaugh and a stiffing defense.

San Francisco hasn't been a  consistently competent franchise since Steve Young was forced from the game (the brief respite with Jeff Garcia doesn't count), and with Harbaugh in place with a slew of young talent, the 49ers are poised to regain their place as perennial powers.

Alex Smith finally played well at quarterback, though is still vastly disappointing as a #1 overall pick. The running game with Frank Gore was tremendous and Smith never made killer mistakes.

With a defense as good as San Fran's, that was usually enough.

Getting better offensively, particularly becoming more explosive, will allow this team to be a major factor again in the NFC.

Offense
In one phrase, San Francisco's offense last year was "good enough." They didn't turn the ball over and scored better than you might think, finishing 11th overall in points scored.

Still, the passing game was lackluster, finishing 29th in the league in yards, despite Alex Smith's efficiency. Adding Randy Moss and Mario Manningham in free agency was a big step forward.

Moss is basically a no-risk move since anything he brings them is an added bonus. If he can stretch the field vertically, he will open up the middle of the field for Vernon Davis who already is a freak athlete and can't be covered by a linebacker.

Manningham will fill the underneath routes, but can also get over the top of defenses as he showed making the decisive catch in the Super Bowl.

Expect the 49ers to maintain their identity as a run-first team, but if Smith can improve in Year 2 with Harbaugh, expect more big plays from this offense. If they can turn those plays into points, I don't see too many teams being able to score enough on their defense to beat the Niners.

Key Free Agents: Braylon Edwards WR, Ted Ginn Jr. WR, Josh Morgan (signed w/ Washington), Chilo Rachal G,  

Defense 
Everyone is back and this defense will only get better. Pick up a corner in the draft for depth and a team that, heading into last season looked like a bubble playoff team, would head into 2012 as a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

Aldon Smith was a revelation as a rookie rushing the passer and with Justin Smith, forms one of the best DL/OLB combinations in the league.

The front seven is physically imposing, dominating and nasty. You just can't run on them and when you do pass, they get after you in a big way.

I continue to be dubious of the secondary and expect that a guy like Carlos Rogers, who just got paid, will revert to his Redskin form dropping interceptions and struggling to stay healthy. It's called reverting to the mean. Even so, this pass rush is good enough to cover up the secondary's lack of elite-level talent.

This is a championship defense. Period.

Key Free Agens: Reggie Smith S, Carlos Rogers (re-signed w/ 49ers), Tavares Gooden (re-signed w/ 49ers),

Draft Targets
Needs: CB,OL,S,RB,DL,TE

Round 1 (Pick 30): Coby Fleener TE Stanford (Pos. Rank 1, Overall Rank: 32)
This may seem too obvious with the Harbaugh/Stanford connection, not to mention that the 49ers already have one of the elite tight ends in the league, but there isn't value at the other available positions and as the Patriots proved, two tight ends are better than one. Fleener is a terrific receiving tight end and would be a nightmare for defenses to defend alongside Davis. Stephon Gilmore from South Carolina, who can also return kicks, would make sense here too.

Round 2 (Pick 61): Kelechi Osemeli OL Iowa State (Pos. Rank: 5, Overall Rank: 63)
As I mentioned above, Chilo Rachal is a free agent and Anthony Davis hasn't been the kind of franchise player the 49ers hoped when they used an early first round draft pick on him. Osemeli can play guard or tackle (in the event San Francisco chooses to give up on Davis), making him a versatile option for this offense that relies so heavily on winning upfront. Good value here at a need position, especially on a team without many holes. 

Round 3 (Pick 92): Tyrone Crawford DE Boise State (Pos. Rank: 11, Overall Rank: 95)
If I were picking and Brock Osweiler fell to me here, I'd take him because I don't think Colin Kaepernick is the future of this franchise. Osweiler, a big-time talent, could be. San Francisco, though, will likely be looking to add depth to a defensive front which relies heavily on Justin Smith's ability to wreck opposing offensive lines (which he does regularly). Ray McDonald, who plays opposite him, is a solid player, underrated even. On the other hand, depth at that position is scare and Crawford is a big body, without a really quick burst upfield. He uses his hands well and can play that defensive end position in the 49ers 3-4 defense which allows their linebackers so much room to make plays.

Overall 
From a value standpoint, this isn't a tremendous draft when you consider where players ranked and where the Niners will have picked them (-7). On the other hand, as I type this, Fleener, at 6'6'' is running a wind-aided sub 4.5 40 yard dash at his pro day. His value at 30 is almost certainly understated here. Furthermore, both Crawford and Osemeli are versatile players who can help San Francisco at positions of need right away. When you have a team already full of talent, you can reach to fill holes.


Final Thought
Without much help, San Francisco would have been the favorite to win the NFC West and a threat to take the entire NFC. Adding Randy Moss and Mario Manningham solidifies their standing as a contender in the NFC, if not one of the favorites. Depth is a question at some positions, which means an injury could derail their season. If the 49ers can use the draft to build up some of that depth and supplement an already loaded roster, expected another double-digit win season and playoff run for this burgeoning young power.

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