The St. Louis Rams are officially on the clock. I know, the Colts have the first pick, but we all know that a man named Luck playing on a team whose mascot is a horseshoe makes too much sense not to happen.
Oh, and it makes good football sense too.
With the combine underway this week, it's time to revisit our Mock Draft series. Player rankings will vary following the testing in Indianapolis this week, so this will all change again.
As we get closer to April's draft, I will start to include more input from the teams as far as who they're likely to draft. This mock is based on my rankings and assessment of team needs mixed with the personnel style of management.
There are a few new names on this list, but mostly we've known for a while which players were first round locks. The next mock may look decidedly different depending on free agent movement beginning March 1.
Also starting in March will be my series on each team's needs heading into next season and how they may address them in the draft.
1.) Indianapolis Colts (2-14) Andrew Luck QB Stanford
Needs:OL,RB,LB,CB,DT
The only intrigue surrounding this pick is whether Peyton Manning will still be in Indianapolis when the Colts make it. My sense is that he'll already have a new team with the Colts choosing to forego the near $30 million in bonus money Manning is owed. If I'm the Colts, I'm already focused on pick 33 and the players they can get to help on both the offensive and defensive lines. This draft class is particularly deep both places.
2.) St. Louis Rams (2-14) Robert Griffin III QB Baylor
Needs: WR,DB,OL,DL
Griffin is the odds on favorite to be the second player taken in this draft, it's just unclear at this point who will be doing the drafting. Miami, Cleveland and Washington all have interest and the Rams have plenty of holes to fill with the extra picks this spot would give them. The deal that makes the most sense for the Rams would be the Redskins. I don't think Mike Holmgren will offer a bounty like Daniel Snyder will and St. Louis can still get a high-impact player at #6. For the Redskins, they get an elite quarterback with the kind of athletic skill set Mike Shanahan was born to coach.
3.) Minnesota Vikings (3-13) Matt Khalil OT USC
Needs: OL,DB,WR,DT
At this point, the Vikings understand it's extremely likely a team will trade in front of them to grab RG3. That's just fine with Minnesota since they'll get to choose between the best defensive player and the best lineman in the draft. The Viking's pass defense was atrocious and against Cutler, Stafford and Rodgers in the NFC North you have to have cornerbacks, but Khalil is one of the few franchise players in this draft. When you invest a high first-round pick in a quarterback, you have to be able to protect him and the Viking offensive line isn't the strength it once was for this team.
4.) Cleveland Browns (4-12) Trent Richardson RB Alabama
Needs: WR,RB,OL,LB,QB
Colt McCoy may not be the long-term solution in Cleveland, but I have a feeling Mike Holmgren would rather sign Matt Flynn than give up a slew of picks for RG3. The Browns aren't a bad team, just one without much talent on the offensive side of the ball. Peyton Hillis has probably played his last down for the Browns and Trent Richardson brings an even wider skill set at the position. The former Tide running back is adept in both the run game and passing game, making him more valuable in today's NFL with such a strong emphasis on throwing the ball. Richardson is the only franchise back in this draft and is the best prospect at the position since Adrian Peterson. I'd rather have McCoy at quarterback with Richardson and all my draft picks than RG3 and a year or two without many draft choices.
5.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12) Morris Claiborne CB LSU
Needs: DB,LB,WR,OL
Tampa plays in the same division as Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Cam Newton...what else do I need to tell you? The Bucs addressed their defensive line in a big way in last year's draft and the offensive cupboard is pretty well-stocked with Freeman, Blount and some young wide-outs. Claiborne would come in as the third corner, but allow Tampa to hide Ronde Barber whose skills have slipped considerably over the last few years. A fluid, smooth athlete, Claiborne is the best cover-corner in this draft and is the kind of impact-player this defense doesn't have.
6.) Washington Redskins (5-11) Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State
Needs: QB, DL,WR,CB,OL
This is exactly how St. Louis would draw up the top of the draft. In this scenario not only do the Rams get the player they need most, but a host of draft picks for moving down. St. Louis could use a corner like Claiborne or a tackle like Khalil, which makes sitting at #2 a possibility, but a scenario like this may be too enticing. Blackmon is a unique talent, a big, physical receiver who is competitive without being melodramatic or selfish. He tore apart college football the same way fellow (and current) Cowboy Dez Bryant did, and while he's not quite as explosive, Blackmon is more consistent on and off the field.
7.) Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11) Quinton Coples DE North Carolina
Needs: WR,DE,DB,OLB
Justin Blackmon would be a tremendous asset to Blaine Gabbert's development, but getting the best pass-rusher in the draft will have to do for the Jags who won't get Blackmon unless they trade up. Coples has played both end and tackle at North Carolina, flashing disruptive skills at both positions. His strength and ability to shed blockers without overpowering speed is similar to Justin Tuck who also is used at multiple positions. Jacksonville has been searching for years now to find a defensive end of this caliber and would be smart to nab Coples here.
8.) Carolina Panthers (6-10) Michael Brockers DT L.S.U.
Needs: CB,WR,S, LB, DE
Carolina has bigger needs on the perimeter both offensively and defensively, but there isn't value at corner or receiver here, making the underclass phenom a solid pick. Brockers doesn't possess great technique as a pass-rusher but at 6-5 306, he has long arms to hold off defenders and make plays in the backfield. You might think someone that tall has a problem with leverage, but Brockers bends well and allows his frame to be an asset rather than a hindrance. There are some quality offensive lineman available here, but the Panther defense was a disaster last year and an upgrade in defensive talent is much more important.
9.) Miami Dolphins (6-10) Riley Reiff OT Iowa
Needs: QB,WR,S,LB,TE
When new Miami head coach Joe Philbin was with the Packers two years ago, Green Bay drafted a talented Iowa offensive lineman who ended up starting in the Super Bowl as a rookie. Reiff is similar to Bryan Bulaga playing with a feisty demeanor and a physical toughness. The Dolphin defense got better as the season went on and Philbin was brought in to help jump-start this offense. Getting better upfront is the best place to start. Miami has their left tackle, but is in need of a right tackle. A Big 10 pairing of Reiff and Long could be a formidable duo for Philbin and this offense.
10.) Buffalo Bills (6-10) Melvin Ingram OLB/DE South Carolina
Needs: OLB,DL,OL,DB
Higher rated players are available on the board, but my rule on reaching for players is the need has to outweigh the value you're giving up. The Bills need a versatile defender to rush opposing quarterbacks in a big way and Ingram can play any position in the front seven for the Bills. Ingram is powerful and thick, but can penetrate and make plays in the backfield. He would make a dangerous duo with 2011 top pick Marcel Dareus. Devon Still doesn't have the kind of pass-rush upside as Ingram does and the higher-rated offensive players don't fill any glaring needs. Ingram fits two, able to play both upright and with his hand in the dirt.
11.) Kansas City Chiefs (7-9) Michael Floyd WR Notre Dame
Needs: WR,TE,OL,NT,LB
New coach Romeo Crennel will head into 2012 with his best offensive player recovering from a torn knee ligament, best receiver likely gone in free agency and his quarterback rehabbing a season-ending injury to his throwing hand. In other words, the offense is a mess. Michael Floyd hasn't had great quarterback play the past two seasons, but still managed to put up monster numbers on an underachieving Irish squad. Dwane Bowe will likely be sent packing and Floyd would give the Chiefs two big, physical receivers to go with Dexter McCluster in the slot and Jamaal Charles in the backfield. Suddenly, the offense isn't so messy.
12.) Seattle Seahawks (7-9) David DeCastro OL Stanford
Needs: QB,CB,LB,DE,OL
Seattle invested heavily in its offensive line last year and with very little success. Injuries and inconsistent quarterback play were a big part of why the offensive line seemed to struggle last year, but the fact remains that the talent just isn't there. DeCastro is the RG3 to Matt Khalil's Andrew Luck: an outstanding player only behind an even more outstanding one. Coincidentally, it was DeCastro blocking for Luck that helped Stanford play so well the last few years. DeCastro is the best interior lineman in the draft and could start right away for Pete Caroll (The guy who recruited Khalil at USC).
13.) Arizona Cardinals (8-8) Luke Kuechly LB Boston College
Needs: OL,OLB,WR,DB
Arizona really played well at times last season, particularly later in the year in wins over Dallas and San Francisco. Kevin Kolb needs to shake off last year and play better this year if the Cardinals want to compete with the 49ers out West. Kuechly would be a solid start, bringing his cerebral style of play to a defense in need of some leadership. The former Boston College linebacker is a tackling machine, using his instinct rather than athleticism to make plays. Arizona must generate more pass rush with its front seven, but it also has to become more fundamentally sound, something Kuechly brings every play.
14.) Dallas Cowboys (8-8) Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama
Needs: CB,DL,OL,OLB
The 'D' in Big D didn't stand for "defense" last year as Dallas finished a disappointed 23rd against the pass despite having the best pass-rusher in football. Dallas' secondary was the major reason why, blowing coverages, quitting on tackles and failing to generate turnovers. Kirkpatrick is one of the most talented defensive players in the draft and was a stand-out for Nick Saban in Tuscaloosa. He will tackle in run support and has dynamic ball skills. Devon Still would be a great fit for the Cowboy's 3-4 defense as a 5 technique, but Kirkpatrick is the splashier name and the kind of athletic, high ceiling player Jerry Jones loves to draft.
15.) Philadelphia Eagles (8-8) Jonathan Martin OT Stanford
Needs: LB,OL,S,RB,WR
Andy Reid won't be able to keep Michael Vick in the pocket, and frankly, he shouldn't want to. However, Reid should want to make sure when Vick stays in the pocket, he won't get his head taken off and Philly struggled to protect Vick in 2011. Jonathan Martin projects as a right tackle in the NFL and has spent his career blocking for one of the best quarterbacks in college football in Andrew Luck. Martin is smart and physical but gets by mostly on effort and grit. The Eagle defense could really use help at linebacker, but the best linebacker available is Courtney Upshaw who is a pass-rush specialist, a place the Eagles have plenty of talent.
16.) New York Jets (8-8) Courtney Upshaw OLB Alabama
Needs: WR,OLB,S,DL,OL
Rex Ryan has been a slightly more contrite version of himself this offseason and that should actually worry teams in the AFC. Even more worrying is a team that, until last season, had been to two straight AFC Championship games is picking in the top 20 in a draft loaded with defensive talent. The Jets have been trying to find a player to carry their pass rush the way DeMarcus Ware does in Dallas or Clay Matthews in Green Bay. Courtney Upshaw is one of the few players in this draft capable of being that player. A rush end at Alabama, Upshaw has played in an elite defensive system on an elite defense his entire career. Heading to New York, he will help make sure New York's defense fits that trend and remains elite.
17.) Bengals F/ Oakland Kendall Wright WR Baylor
Needs: S,RB,G,WR,LB
One of the best young teams in football will have two cracks at it in the first round. For a team already full of talent, getting a top 20 pick for a quarterback the Bengals had no use for (Carson Palmer) was brilliant. Now, Cincinnati is in a position to cherry pick the best players to fall down the board without having glaring needs to address. In this case, the Bengals pick up a receiver to play opposite A.J. Green who is already a star in the league. Wright will be able to work underneath in the space vacated by safeties helping over the top on Green. But if defenses commit too much to stopping Green, Wright can win vertical one-on-one matchups for big plays. This Bengals team would suddenly have ridiculous young talent offensively.
18.) San Diego Chargers (8-8) Devon Still DT Penn State
Needs: LB,CB,OL,WR
If I'm San Diego, I might look to trade down here if this is how the draft plays out. There's no stud pass-rusher or wide receiver to nab so instead the Bolts take the best player on the board in Still. Corey Liuget hardly lived up to his name last year and the San Diego defense remains the weakness of this team. Grabbing a corner like Janoris Jenkins would be an upgrade, but with the defensive front still severely lacking in young talent, doubling up on defensive lineman two years in a row is hardly redundant. Still, with his long arms and solid frame would fit well in the Charger's 3-4 scheme and won't be asked to rush the passer, an area where he remains raw.
19.) Chicago Bears (8-8) Mark Barron S Alabama
Needs: OL,WR,TE,CB,LB
Bear fans may be puzzled by this pick since the most glaring needs in Chicago are at offensive line and the offensive skill positions. On the other hand, this draft is deep with lineman and wide receivers and Mark Barron is the best player at a position of need for the Bears. Barron can play in the box in run support, something he won't have to do as much in the Bear's Cover 2 scheme. On the other hand, they've been playing more man coverage in Chicago and with all of the offensive talent in the NFC North, the Bears secondary can't keep up, as evidence by the 1-3 record against the Packers and Lions. Problems along the offensive line can be helped in later rounds and free agency.
20.) Tennessee Titans (9-7) Fletcher Cox DT Mississippi State
Needs: WR,CB,DL,TE,OL
Getting a corner to replace Cortland Finnegan (expected to leave in free agency) will be a priority, as well upgrading the Titan pass rush. At 6-4 295, Cox can move like a linebacker and is so athletic many NFL scouts see him as a defensive end at the next level. He will demolish the off-season process at the Combine and his pro day, flashing that quickness and power. Tennessee looks like it has hit with Jurrell Casey, but adding Cox would vastly improve this D-line. Cox could even play end on early downs and move inside on passing downs much like Cullen Jenkins does at times for the Eagles. Janoris Jenkins to bolster the secondary also makes sense here.
21.) Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama
Needs: S,RB,G,WR,LB
When Leon Hall went down with injury, this secondary was exposed to some degree and seeing how much Johnathan Joseph impacted the Texans' defense underscores how important he was to the Bengals. Janoris Jenkins has had some issues away from the field, but on it, he has few peers. The Florida Gator transfer is smooth in and out of breaks, has great ball skills and terrific instincts to cover less than ideal top-end speed. In fact, he profiles as similar to Hall only a little less physical. Jenkins would add depth and playmaking to this Bengals defense that is already exceptional.
22.) Browns F/ Atlanta Cordy Glenn OL Georgia
Needs: WR,RB,OL,LB,QB
Given the ruminations about Cleveland's need for a new quarterback, one could still be available in this spot if no one snares Ryan Tannehill before pick 22. If that happens, and the Browns don't want him, they could decide to trade out of this pick for someone with eyes for the Texas A&M signal caller. If the Browns feel like they're set at quarterback, then they need to get some help protecting him. Cordy Glenn can play guard or tackle and unfortunately for the Browns, he can't play both at once (although he might be big enough to try). Cleveland's line has an elite center and an elite left tackle to go with a bunch of scrubs and Glenn, despite his limitations moving that big frame, would be an upgrade.
23.) Detroit Lions (10-6) Dont'a Hightower ILB Alabama
Needs: OL,DB,LB,WR
This is a spot where the phone lines will start to heat up with GM's looking to get back into the first and nab Ryan Tannehill. Detroit needs help upfront and in the secondary but linebacker is a major issue for the Lions and Dont'a Hightower is exactly the kind of player Jim Schwartz would love to coach. Hightower was one of the leaders on that outstanding Alabama defense. An extremely powerful linebacker, Hightower is tremendous in run support, but also flashes some natural pass rush ability. He absolutely dominated the BCS title game against a big, talented team and excelled in the best conference in college football. There may be an issue of position since the Lions like Stephen Tullock, but Hightower has the physical tools to move to the strong side in the NFL.
24.) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) Jerel Worthy DT Michigan State
Needs: CB,DL,OL,S,RB
Once one of the deepest defensive teams in the NFL, Pittsburgh is now the oldest and one of the thinnest. Denver had success against the Steelers in the playoffs, at least in part, due to the fact that Pittsburgh didn't have any healthy defensive lineman to play. Pittsburgh drafted Cameron Heyward last year to help, but with the age of guys like Casey Hampton and Brett Keisel, one player won't fill the gap. When it comes to filling the gap, few do it better than Worthy. A massive interior lineman with a nasty demeanor, Worthy can physically dominate games at times and can push the pocket even in a double team. Worthy's stock has been all over the place this season, but in Pittsburgh, he could really shine.
25.) Denver Broncos (8-8) Peter Konz C Wisconsin
Needs: WR,DB,DT,RB
Denver needs weapons to put around Tim Tebow, but reaching for a tight end hear doesn't maximize what is really a rebuilding project in Denver. Tebowmania got Denver into the playoffs, but this is still just an 8-8 team with plenty of holes. The play of the aforementioned Tebow covered some of the holes upfront for the Broncos who, outside of Ryan Clady, lack blue-chip talent. If they're going to run the spread, why not take a player who has lead one of the best running games in college football? Peter Konz, although just a junior, was the leader of arguably the best offensive line in college football last season. He's incredibly athletic, able to pull and move along the interior, but also strong enough to hold up against defensive tackles. Konz's agility and quickness would be an ideal fit for the read options and other run fits where interior lineman are asked to pull and move. There are talented receivers in free agency, not to mention this is an extremely deep class of both wide outs and tight ends.Getting Tebow some weapons can be addressed later in the draft or through signings.
26.) Houston Texans (10-6) Mike Adams OT Ohio State
Needs: S,WR,OL,DL
When healthy, this might be the most talented team in the AFC. Houston's defense was much improved and the offense will be perennially potent with Andre Johnson and Arian Foster. However, according to Football Outsiders, the Texans ranked 22nd in the league in pass protection, a problem since Houston became a franchise. Mike Adams could be a big help, equipped with the lateral quickness and feet needed in pass protection. With concerns surrounding their quarterbacks' durability, Ryan Tannehill wouldn't be altogether shocking here, but there are a few places Houston could upgrade in order to be a legitimate contender in the AFC.Look for them to focus on a wide receiver or offensive lineman here.
27.) Patriots F/ New Orleans Nick Perry OLB/DE USC
Needs:DE,S,LB,DL,CB
New England's linebacking group was so anemic last year, the Patriots actually decided to abandon the 3-4 defense. Not that it helped; the Patriots defense was historically bad last year, finishing as the second-worst pass defense of all time. One of the biggest problems was their inability to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Outside of a few games, the pass rush never got going and it showed as the Patriots gave up yards in bunches. Perry is an early entrant into the draft and doesn't seem to have fulfilled his potential yet. He is athletically gifted and physical at the point of attack. He could allow the Patriots to slide back to the 3-4 defense, but it also big enough to play end if New England sticks with the 4-3
28.) Green Bay Packers (15-1) David Wilson RB Virginia Tech
Needs: OLB,OL,CB,DL
Why, on a team without a pass rush or depth at offensive line should the Packers take a running back? Because he's the best player available here and we know that's who Ted Thompson will take.If there's one thing we know about Thompson it's that he's remarkably and sometimes for fans, maddeningly, consistent when it comes to player development. Take the best player available and work it all out later. It's not as though Wilson couldn't help this team either. Ryan Grant will likely be showed the door and second year player Alex Green is coming off an ACL tear. Wilson is not in Trent Richardson's class, but is the best of the rest with solid balance, explosiveness and underrated power. This draft is extremely deep with defensive front seven players and the Packers are good enough, they can afford to wait.
29.) Baltimore Ravens (12-4) Whitney Mercilus OLB/DE Illinois
Needs: OL,OLB,DB,RB
Packer fans just sighed. Mercilus is the kind of player Green Bay needs to get after opposing quarterbacks. Outside of Terrell Suggs though, Baltimore doesn't have an impact rusher either. Sergio Kindle has been hurt and Jarrett Johnson is hardly a world beater. Mercilus is not a technician, but is an incredible athlete and has a relentless motor. At 6-4 265 pounds, Mercilus is also big enough that you could slide him to end if you needed to. Baltimore would probably rather address concerns in the defensive backfield or along the offensive line here, but there isn't a lot of value at either position.
30.) San Francisco 49ers (13-3) Dwayne Allen TE Clemson
Needs: CB,S,OLB,OT
San Francisco made it to the NFC Championship game without any options in the passing game outside of Vernon Davis. Michael Crabtree is a talent, but struggles to separate at times. If you pair Vernon Davis with another big, athletic tight end like Dwayne Allen, suddenly the 49ers have a duo that could rival what New England has with Gronkowski and Hernandez. Furthermore, Allen is a better blocker than either Gronkowski or Hernandez, making two tight end sets even more deadly when the Niners essentially take a receiver and could use him inline as a blocker. Allen reminds me of Steeler tight end Heath Miller with more athletic ability and that makes both the running and passing game better.
31.) New England Patriots (13-3) Alfonzo Dennard CB Nebraska
Needs: DL,S,LB,WR,CB
Expect a defensive back and a pass rusher in some order from the Patriots in the first round. If you look at the roster, you might think the Patriots could use a deep threat wide receiver, but their tight ends present such tough match ups that they don't really need one. What they really need is to get better at getting stops. They're defensive backfield regressed last year and frankly, just doesn't have very much talent. Dennard is a strong, physical corner who won't back down. He may not be fast enough to run with elite receivers, but the Patriots could use him as a nickel corner or safety and have an immediate talent upgrade. I could see a receiver here, but Mohamed Sanu and Alshon Jeffery aren't deep threats.
32.) New York Giants (9-7) Zach Brown LB North Carolina
Needs: OL,CB,LB,RB
Most mocks have a tight end here and I could see Colby Fleener, but I think New York is satisfied with Ballard and Beckham right now. Mathias Kiwanuka isn't now, nor has he ever been a suitable linebacker. Zach Brown is an outrageously talented athlete, but is a raw football player right now. New York's front four is good enough to hide some of the deficiencies at linebacker, but putting a guy with the explosiveness of Brown behind that line could turn out to make a great defense even better with some seasoning. Mohamed Sanu or Alshon Jeffery would make sense here as well since Super Bowl hero Mario Manningham is a free agent.
