Monday, December 31, 2007

Mock Draft 2008 12/31/2007

As April draws near, NFL fans whose teams failed to make the playoffs have only the NFL Draft to give them hope. Underclassman still have several weeks to declare their intentions and that will give way to the set of all-star games and the combine. By late February, we will have a much better idea of where to rank the players. With that said, here is how I see it playing out, if the draft were to be tomorrow.


1. Miami Dolphins (1-15) Needs: OL,DL,CB,S,TE
Glen Dorsey DT LSU
The Dolphins will have some very difficult decisions to make come draft day. A number of teams will certainly consider trade offers to get McFadden. Glen Dorsey has been a disruptive force his whole career at LSU, but injuries create doubt. He isn't a perfect fit for the Dolphins system, but represents upside and can be a force in the NFL. A number of teams will have interest in Darren McFadden and with many needs to fill, Bill Parcells and co. may have a tough decision to make, particularly if Parcells old team the Cowboys are looking to trade up. Between now and April, the 'Phins and the Tuna will have to determine how to best allocate their resources to turn this proud franchise around.

2. St. Louis Rams (3-13) Needs: OT,LB,S,CB,QB
Jake Long OT Michigan
St. Louis will be in a unique position this April with probably the most talented team picking in the top 10(With the exception of the Patriots). Injuries killed the Rams this year and they found out they don't have the playmakers they thought they did. Much of the offensive problems stemmed from inconsistent offensive line play after Orlando Pace went down. Jake Long grades out just below Joe Thomas who has been dominant for Cleveland this season. Long would give Stephen Jackson a massive wall to facilitate their run game.

3. Atlanta Falcons (4-12) Needs: QB,OL,DT,LB,WR,S
Darren McFadden RB Arkansas
There is a tremendous amount of uncertainty for the Falcons right now. No team in any sport has had to endure the kind of turmoil this team has and it showed on the football field. The Falcons have no coach, no GM, and no QB. The rule is you don't pass on a franchise QB if you don't have one, but the same can be said for running backs. Warrick Dunn is clearly on the downside and Jerious Norwood is not a lead back. Darren McFadden will have an impact next season in the NFL, more than say Matt Ryan from BC. Arthur Blank wants to fill the seats again, and McFadden is the guy to do it.

4. Kansas City Chiefs (4-12) Needs: OL,WR,QB,CB,S
Matt Ryan QB Boston College
Kansas City hit on a gem late in the first round last year with Dwayne Bowe. Unfortunately, the loss of Larry Johnson and inconsistent QB play left Kansas City struggling all year. Damon Huard was benched on favor of Brodie Croyle with very little change. Matt Ryan has established himself as the top QB in this year's draft. He has the arm to make every throw and was highly successful at Boston College with very little talent around him. For Ryan, it is a dream scenario with LJ to hand off to and Tony Gonzalez and the aforementioned Bowe to throw to in a weak conference.

5. Oakland Raiders (4-12) Needs: OL,WR,SS, DL,DB
Chris Long DE Virginia
Oakland would love to see Chris Long on the board here. Long was the most disruptive defensive force in college football this season, but more than that, he's the son of Raider great Howie Long. While the Raiders would love to get a playmaker on offense, there isn't value here with McFadden off the board and no receiver warranting a top 10 pick. Long will help that Raider defensive line keep pressure off a linebacking core who fly around and make plays.

6. New York Jets (4-12) Needs: DL,WR,CB,G,FS
Sedrick Ellis DT USC
For the Jets, the win over KC will keep them from getting McFadden, or Jake/Chris Long, all of whom would fill bigger needs for this team. Sedrick Ellis anchored a dominant USC defense and was unblockable at time in the middle. He will almost certainly play defensive end in Mangini's 3-4 system and will give the Jets a pass rush that managed just 29 sacks all year. Ohio State's James Laurinaitis could be an option here as well considering Jonathan Vilma is not a good fit for the 3-4.

7. New England Patriots F/ 49ers Needs: CB,S,LB, RB, OL
James Laurinaitis ILB Ohio State
It hardly seems fair that an undefeated team would get a top 10 pick especially considering the Patriots had their own first round pick taken away with the Spy Gate scandal. Early in the year it was hard to point out significant weaknesses in the Patriots, but as the season has progressed, the defense has been vulnerable. Those Patriot linebackers are ancient and it would be hard to envision Seau and Bruschi playing much longer. Laurinitis grades out a little lower than where A.J. Hawk did, but he has the speed and instinct to be an impact player in the NFL.

8. Baltimore Ravens (5-11) Needs: QB,CB,WR, OL,LB
Brian Brohm QB Louisville
Perhaps no team in the NFL was as disappointing this year as the Baltimore Ravens. After going 13-3, this team showed their age on defense and no explosiveness on offense. Steve McNair probably doesn't have anything left, but would provide a great mentor for Brohm, should McNair elect to return for another season. With Brian Billick gone, the Ravens will likely have to rebuild the offense. Expect them to add depth at CB and WR on the first day of the draft as well.

9. Cincinnati Bengals (7-9) Needs: LB,DL,OL,S,TE
Vernon Gholston DE Ohio State
One of the bright spots for the up and down Bengals was the play of rookie CB Leon Hall. However, the Bengals defense was able to get no pressure on the quarterback managing just 22 sacks all season long. The Cinci has more pressing needs at linebacker, but with Laurinaitis gone, it is too high to take any other linebacker. Gholston is still very raw, but has the kind of physical tools that scouts look for. A solid showing against LSU and at the combine and it should be no surprise if the junior Buckeye winds up in the top 10.

10. New Orleans Saints (7-9) Needs: DT,LB,CB,TE,S
Malcolm Jenkins CB Ohio State
It would be unfair to definitively rule last year's run by the Saints a fluke, but New Orleans did very little to prove otherwise this season. Injuries hurt a great deal, but the Saints defense simply couldn't cover anyone and failed to create turnovers. Malcolm Jenkins will have plenty of opportunities to showcase his skills against a talented set of playmakers for LSU in the BCS Championship game. If Jenkins can do that, expect him to leave school early and wind up much like his teammate Gholston, in the top 10.

11. Buffalo Bills (7-9) Needs: LB,TE,CB,DT,WR
Derrick Harvey DE Florida
Buffalo winds up in a tough spot here. They will have to decide if it is too high to take a chance on DeSean Jackson who would give Trent Edwards another option in the passing game. Ryan Clady would also draw consideration but the Bills line really came together and played extremely well down the stretch. However, the defense struggled to get pressure getting just 26 sacks a year ago. With a young secondary, that will not win you many ball games especially in an extremely competitive AFC. Derrick Harvey has the burst and and quickness to get upfield and really pressure the quarterback.

12. Denver Broncos (7-9) Needs: DT,OL,S,RB,WR
Kenny Phillips S Miami (Fl)
Denver's rush defense last season was 30th in the NFL and last most of the year. They would love to get a defensive tackle to plug that middle, but there isn't really a value here. John Lynch is getting old, and was hurt much of the season. Nick Ferguson also wound up on injured reserve, leaving the safety position extremely thin. Kenny Phillips has a chance to return to school and continue to help Miami rebuild their program, but he is really the only top tier talent at safety in this year's draft. Phillips is always around the ball, and should be next in line of great Miami safeties to succeed in the NFL.

13. Carolina Panthers (7-9) Needs: WR,DL,QB,S,TE
Andre Woodson QB Kentucky
John Fox did an excellent job of keeping his team focused on winning even after they had to play 70 year old Vinny Testaverde at QB. Steve Smith is one of the most dangerous players in the NFL, but the defense for the Panthers unachieved. DeSean Jackson would be awfully tough next to Steve Smith, but Jake Delhomme has had a problem staying healthy and really hasn't been the same player since the Panthers lost to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. If John Fox gets an extension longer than a year or two, expect a QB here. Woodson carved up the Florida State defense to finish his season strong. The long throwing motion scares some scouts, but other believe Woodson has the most upside of any QB in the draft.


14. Chicago Bears (7-9) Needs: QB,G,T,RB,S,WR
Ryan Clady OT Boise State
The Bears were a disappointing team both offensively and defensively. The lines on both sides were banged up and exposed the lack of depth at a number of positions. The offensive line was particularly weak this season opening very few holes for Cedric Benson. Ryan Clady would provide an infusion of talent into a line that has gotten very hold. Clady can explode off the line and get after it in a division full of rush ends. The Bears would also like to see Andre Woodson here, but with Carolina drafting ahead of them, it seems unlikely that he would drop.

15. Detroit Lions (7-9) Needs: OL,CB,TE,LB,S
Mike Jenkins CB South Florida
Detroit fans will be happy to see the Lions drafting outside of the top 10 for the first time in what seems like forever. What started off as promise, turned into disappointment for this team after there weaknesses in the secondary were exposed on Thanksgiving Day. Mike Jenkins is the top senior defensive back in 2008 and the Lions desperately need him. He can play corner or safety, both weak positions for the Lions. That type of versatility will excite Rod Marinelli and hopefully give the Lions an impact player on defense right away.

16.
Arizona Cardinals (8-8) Needs: OL,DL,LB,RB,S
Keith Rivers OLB USC
The Cardinals offense was able to score in bunches all season long even without Matt Leinart. The Cardinals were able to stuff the run ranking 9th in rushing yards. Arizona's defense simply lacks difference makers and couldn't stop anyone in the passing game. Unfortunately, there isn't value here at either corner or safety. Keith Rivers is a sideline to sideline demon who never stops working. The Cardinals have solid but unspectacular linebackers and Rivers would bring a winning attitude and work ethic to a team that has been losing for a long time. There are bigger needs along the

17. Minnesota Vikings (8-8) Needs: QB,WR,DE,RT,CB
DeSean Jackson WR Cal
Minnesota proved last year they were willing to take the best player available by taking Adrian Peterson when they had bigger needs. Peterson is already a star on ground, but the passing game is pathetic. Tavaris Jackson is a mediocre QB at best right now, but he has no one to throw to. Early word out of Minnesota is that they're targeting another first round pass rusher and Calais Campbell is certainly a possibility here. However, Jackson is a better pure wide receiver than Ted Gin Jr. and certainly could be an impact player as a rookie. DeSean Jackson and Adrian Peterson would give the Vikings a scary combination of big play ability.

18. Houston Texans (8-8) Needs: OL,CB,WR,RB,LB
Jonathan Stewart RB Oregon
With a number of upper-echelon teams underachieving, the Houston Texans was one of the bottom feeders succeeding. Mario Williams and Andre Johnson are blossoming stars in the league and the Texans have talent on both sides of the ball. Houston has done a terrific job of drafting the past several years and Jonathan Stewart can be a franchise back. Ahman Green was playing extremely well before he went down and Ron Dayne played well as a fill in. However, Green is getting older and Dayne is certainly not a #1 back. Stewart dominated Central Florida for more than 250 yards on the ground. He would give Schaub and company balance on offense.

19. Philadelphia Eagles (8-8) Needs: WR,S,G,LB,OT
Limas Sweed WR Texas
The Eagles haven't had a true #1 at receiver since they lost Terrell Owens and that has increased the work load on Brian Westbrook. Regardless of who is playing quarterback for the Eagles next season, he will need more weapons to succeed. Sweed lost his season to a wrist injury, but he has played a ton at Texas and been nothing but successful. The former Longhorn has a big powerful frame and soft hands. He may lack top end speed, but Sweed can get open in space and use his body to shield defenders. Whoever is throwing passes for the Eagles will welcome the Texas standout on the outside.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7) Needs: OL,CB,LB,WR,RB
Jeffrey Otah OT Pittsburgh
Jon Gruden has done an exceptional job of getting Tampa Bay back to the playoffs with the NFC South Division Championship. The division was weak however, and this team is aging at a number of positions. The Tampa offensive line has been a thin position for a number of years now and the Bucs have only begun to address it. Jeff Otah is a big, physical presence who will give running lanes to Cadillac Williams and Earnest Graham as well as give Jeff Garcia time to find his play maker Joey Galloway in the passing game.

21. Washington Redskins (9-7) Needs: DL,S,OLB,WR,OL
Calais Campbell DE Miami (Fl)
No team in recent memory has had to deal with the tragic murder of a player in the middle of a season. The way the Redskins have responded speaks volume of their character and this team is playing excellent football heading to the playoffs. One of the reasons the 'Skins are playing so well is the play of their front four. They have created pressure with their lineman all season, but their front 7 is againg, with Rocky McIntosh and Andre Carter the only players under the age of 30 in that group. Campbell has has an enormous frame and power to get to the quarterback. He can play the run as well as get pressure. The Redskins have a glaring hole at safety with the aforementioned tragedy with Sean Taylor, but there simply isn't a player here to fill that need. The 'Skins will settle for another former Hurricane to give them a burst off the corner.

22. Dallas Cowboys F/ Browns (13-3) Needs: DB,DT,MLB,RB,OL
Early Doucet III WR LSU
This pick could have been different before Tony Romo struggled mightily without Terrell Owens against Washington. Owens has been a dominant force this season and Patrick Crayton is an excellent third option, but Terry Glenn was supposed to be the #2 WR for this team. With very little depth and no real playmakers beyond Owens, Jerry Jones will take the opportunity to get one for his young quarterback here. Doucet is a burner and can give the Cowboys a down the field threat that will open up the underneath routes for Witten and Owens.

23. Seattle Seahawks (10-6) Needs: G,RB,WR,OLB,CB
Sam Baker OT USC
Seattle will go to the playoffs once again under Mike Holmgren, this season, inspite of a running game. Former league MVP Shaun Alexander and Mo Morris have failed to give the Seahawks any balance. The loss of Steve Hutchinson has really hurt the run game and outside of Walter Jones, the 'Hawks line has been average. Baker does not play with a lot of power and strength, but he has fantastic feet, balance, and instinct. With some time and some additional strength, Baker has the ability to be a Pro Bowl tackle.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) Needs: OT,S,WR,OLB,DE
Michael Oher OT Ole' Miss
This Pittsburgh Steelers team does not seem to follow the blueprint of Steeler teams of old. This Steelers team does not tackle well and lately have been outmuscled and simply outplayed. Their offensive line has allowed too many sacks, even though they've given Willie Parker a ton of holes in the run game. Michael Oher is a massive tackle who can really get after it. The Ole' Miss product has been steadily climbing draft boards and could climb even higher. Oher may go back to school, but he has a first round grade and would help a very inconsistent Steelers line.

25. Tennessee Titans (10-6) Needs: WR,CB,LB,OL,DT
Malcolm Kelly WR Oklahoma
Tennessee surprised plenty of people when they took Michael Griffin in the first round instead of adding a receiver for Vince Young. Without much help on the outside VY struggled to complete passes and score, forcing him to make more plays with his legs. That kind of burden took its toll on Young. Kelly is the kind of threat the Titans need to give Vince. Kelly is a big smooth athlete would uses his body well in traffic, but can make some people miss even at 6'4'' 217 pounds. A top 5 team could keep Kelly at Oklahoma for next season, but Kelly is rumored to be leaning toward entering the draft.

26. New York Giants (10-6) Needs: LB,DB,WR,OL
Dan Connor LB Penn State
The Giants could certainly use another wide receiver as Plaxico Burress has been the only reliable target for Eli Manning. However, Dan Connor has tremendous value here and the Giants desperately need help at linebacker. Aqib Talib could also be the pick here, but Aaron Ross showed promise this season and another first round corner would only add pressure to a group of defensive backs who struggled at times to get off the field. Connor tackles as well as any player in the country, something the Giants struggled to do all season long.

27. San Diego Chargers (11-5) Needs: MLB,WR,DT,LB,S,RB
Felix Jones RB Arkansas
After getting off to a slow start, the Chargers are playing excellent football and it is because of the new LT. Tomlinson has put this team on his shoulders since he got here and hasn't slowed down. Michael Turner will be a free agent and probably draw considerable interest in the free agent market. San Diego has more pressing needs like inside linebacker and safety, but there isn't value there. At this point, San Diedgo can take best player available which is Jones who will provide them a playmaker with speed and quickness in all phases.

28. Jacksonville Jaguards (11-5) Needs: WR,LB,S,DL,
Ali Highsmith OLB LSU
Jacksonville's success this season has been predicated on physicality and toughness. The Jags offense has been all about the running game, but they have a QB who can make all the throws and doesn't make mistakes. Much like San Diego, Jacksonville does not have many holes. Their linebacking unit is slow and could use a difference maker. Highsmith is a high energy player who can rush the passer and really attack in the run game. With top end speed for a linebacker, the LSU standout can get sideline to sideline in a flash. With Stroud and Henderson in the middle shield him, Highsmith's lack of bulk would be minimized.

29. Green Bay Packers (13-3) Needs: S,RB,OL,TE,OLB
Aqib Talib CB Kansas
After struggling to run the ball most of the year, it seemed a lock the Pack would draft a running back in the first round. Ryan Grant looks like the real deal and even Brandon Jackson has come on of late. The Packers still need more consistent play from their safeties and could use some depth at corner. Talib has tremendous ball skills, and even saw time at WR with Kansas. He lacks top end speed, but is physical and could potentially move to safety where the Packers could also use him. Either way, he will add depth at corner and is built much like Charles Woodson. Under the tutelage of Woodson and Al Harris, Talib will get every opportunity to learn and grow. Talib's size and ball skills gives up as much upside as any corner in this draft and he could be an impact player on this defense as a rookie.

30. Dallas Cowboys (13-3) Needs: DB,DT,MLB,RB,OL
Reggie Smith CB/S
Rumors about Jerry Jones wanting to trade his two first rounders to get into a position to draft Darren McFadden. If that doesn't happen, they will definitely be in the market for depth in the defensive backfield. Reggie Smith has solid ball skills and instincts, but his speed is still a question mark. He can be dynamic with the ball in his hand and has the potential to make big plays at either corner or safety for the Cowboys. The last time the Cowboys drafted a big physical corner from Oklahoma, they got a hard hitter pro bowl safety. Reggie Smith is better in coverage than Roy Williams and could even be the guy who spells Williams on passing downs.

31. San Francisco 49ers F/ Colts (5-11) Needs: OL,WR,DT,S,OLB
Kentwan Balmer DT North Carolina
San Francisco's season was extremely disappointing and Alex Smith seemed to regress as their QB and leader. Mike Nolan might not survive the next few weeks and this offense struggled mightily all season. However, the WR class is extremely deep and the 49ers will have their pick at the top of the second round to get a guy like Mario Manningham or Adarius Bowman to upgrade their receiving unit. Balmer is a force in the middle who can get after the QB and stuff the run. Bryant Young has been a main stay in the middle of that 49ers defense. Balmer has the kind of talent to make an impact right away for a defense that will miss Young's contributions.

New England Patriots 16-0
Forfeit pick

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Freshly Squeezed: Juicing and Records put Baseball in Tough Position

The Mitchell Report. It seems to have taken on a nature of its own in recent days as some unexpected names found their way on the 300 plus page packet. Since then, pundits from ESPN to Fox News have weighed in on what is to be done about steroids in baseball. After all, that is why Commissioner Bud Selig had the report financed....isn't it? Curt Schilling said in his blog(wait...really?) that he thinks Roger Clemens should have any numbers from years in which the Rocket used PED's stripped and the 4 Cy Young's on Clemens' mantle should be also rescinded. The famous asterisk discussion seems to come back. What are we to do with the records in baseball if it turns out they're was foul play? The answer is simple:they ought to be in the books, but only as a footnote.

In other words, take a cue from track and field where numbers are everything. The fastest 100 meter dash time ever run by a human was Ben Johnson in 9.79 seconds in 1988. But if you look in the record books you'll see Carl Lewis is the Gold Medalist from that Olympics with a time of 9.92 seconds. From there semantics vary, but inevitably there will be a footnote of some sort. Looking down towards the bottom of the page, you see something to the effect, "Carl Lewis was awarded the Gold Medal after Ben Johnson of Canada, the original winner in 9.79, tested positive for steroids"

Ben Johnson's accomplishment stood as the fastest time on record until recently when Asafa Powell and then Justin Gatlin broke his records, presumably without the help of performance enhancers. Baseball fans expect, and now HOPE Alex Rodriguez is able to play long enough to break Bonds' record. In the same way people hoped someone would break Ben Johnson's record without the help of steroids.

This obsession with numbers seems to be a side effect of our culture. We constantly look for ways to measure greatness. If you ask any person over the age of 40 who the greatest home run hitter of all time, most people would tell you without much hesitation "Hammerin' Hank." The record books say Barry Bonds hit more home runs than any player ever, but since when does that matter? Nolan Ryan holds a number of pitching records and yet is not considered the greatest pitcher ever, but rather one of the greatest. Records do necessarily translate into greatness. Until Peyton Manning won a Super Bowl, he was considered "that" QB, who just couldn't get his team to the promise land. We all have our preferences on who the "greatest" is, but we have our own criteria. You can love Sammy Sosa and suspect he was juicing.


I am just as guilty. In an effort to prove Brett Favre is the greatest QB ever, I did a statistical analysis. But I can think Favre is the greatest ever, and you can think Marino is. That is the beauty of it. Baseball's fascination with individual stats in a TEAM oriented game simply proves baseball needs fixing.

One last point and it is something that has really bothered me about this entire process. I discussed it with a friend of mine and we came to the same conclusion. Athletes are being privileged in a way that is reprehensible. Professional athletes get paid millions of dollars a year to play something that is based on abilities God gave them(I understand it is more complex than that) They have plush locker rooms, access to whatever they need and celebrity status around the world. That is fine....I suppose. But that does not mean they are subject to the law any differently than anyone else.

A stock broker's job is to make money. He is to make money for him and his clients. If he breaks the law to gain an edge, assuming he gets caught, he loses his job and faces jail time and federal fines. Professional athletes get CAUGHT uses steroids, not only do they not go to jail, they play again that season. That is unacceptable, and that we, the fans, do not speak up louder about penalties for such actions is equally wrong.