Neither the college nor NFL season has kicked off, but that doesn't mean it's too soon to take a cursory look at how the draft make shake out next April.
Obviously the order of teams is based solely on predictions, estimations, hopes and prayers, given that injuries and inconsistencies play an enormous factor in determining the outcome of an NFL season.
We know there will be teams who were in the playoffs in 2012 who won't be in 2013, just like there will be teams who struggled last year to win games, who will get it together this season.
It can be straightforward to tell a really good team from a really bad team, but just how good? How bad? And who will finished 9-7 versus who will finish 6-10 when they have just about the same talent level?
Determining needs also becomes difficult given that we don't know how players will develop from one year to another or how much rookies will contribute. Basically, what I did was took every team as they stood today and how I projected them for the season.
Inevitably, I will look stupid with a few teams, some of whom I vastly underrated and others I vastly overrate.
Perhaps more importantly though, this will give you an idea of who appears to be in the first round discussion among college players, who the elite players are and who is fighting to move into that category.
The bottom line is, it's way too early to decide any of this, but that doesn't mean it can't still be fun to think about.
1.) Jacksonville Jaguars: Matt Barkley QB USC (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 1)
Needs:QB,WR,DB,OL,RB
Barkley has projected into the top 10 since he arrived on campus at 'SC. A four-year starter, Barkley has great touch and vision down the field and has a good, though not great arm. There are concerns about his height at the next level, but given what Russell Wilson has shown so far, such concerns may begin falling by the wayside. Jacksonville, for their part, looks like one of the worst teams in the league and without Maurice Jones-Drew, I'm not sure how they score enough points to win games. Blaine Gabbert has been an unmitigated disaster to this point and unless he takes a big step forward this season, the Jags will almost certainly be in the discussion for this top pick. This selection becomes even more attractive if the Jags are considering a move to L.A. where Barkley is the ideal face of franchise.
2.) Indianapolis Colts: Barkevious Mingo DE/OLB LSU (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 3)
Needs: DL,LB,DB,OL,RB,WR
While I'm cautiously optimistic about Andrew Luck's impact on the Colts, even Cam Newton's record-setting rookie season wasn't enough to bring a really bad team that far out of the top 5 picks. The one caveat is that the AFC South is a pathetic division outside the Houston Texans, but a brutal schedule having to match-up with the NFC North should land a few of the South teams in the top 10. The offense is in place with Luck and a decent set of skill position players. That leaves Indy looking at the best defensive player in the draft in Mingo. The LSU underclassman is extremely disruptive and has the speed to play outside linebacker in the Colts' new 3-4 defense. Mingo relies on his excellent athleticism to make plays in college, but will need to refine his pass-rush technique against NFL tackles.
3.) Cleveland Browns: Keenan Allen WR California (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 5)
Needs: WR,G/C,S,OLB,CB
In an extremely difficult AFC North, the Browns are in for a long season. Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson are considerable upgrades at their positions and the Cleveland offense should be better than last year, but with the Bengals, Steelers and Ravens all ahead of them in the division, I can't see them winning more than four or five games. Allen may not quite be a top 3 level talent, but does project as a #1 receiver in the NFL with his combination of size, strength and speed. Totaling 144 catches in 20 games in the Pac-12 is a pretty impressive feat and Allen flashes a knack for making catches in traffic, particularly down the seam with bracket coverage. With a legitimate top-flight receiver, Cleveland would suddenly have the pieces to begin to challenge the big boys in their division.
4.) Miami Dolphins: Star Lotulelei DT Utah (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 4)
Needs: WR,DL,LB,S,TE
Speaking of teams who desperately need a receiver, the Dolphins would love for Keenan Allen to be on the board when they pick, which will likely be in the top 10. Thanks to offseason trades of Brandon Marshall and Vontae Davis, Miami now has four picks in the first two rounds, at least three of which will probably be in the top 40 selections. The Dolphins believe they have their quarterback of the future and the offensive line is solid. Miami has a stud pass rusher in Cameron Wake, but there isn't much around on him on that defense as far as high-impact players go. Lotulelei is being talked about as a potential top overall pick and when you watch the Utes use him to cover running backs out of the backfield on zone dogs, it's not hard to understand why. Athletically, few players at his size (6-3 318) can move the way he does. While raw, Lotulelei has the tools to become a dominant interior presence and would make it harder for teams to double Wake. A receiver like Robert Woods or a rush end like Sam Montgomery will also be on the Phins' radar depending on where they pick.
5.) Minnesota Vikings: David Amerson CB North Carolina State (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank:6)
Needs: G,WR,CB,LB,RB
With Adrian Peterson's health in question and an underwhelming group of skill position players, the Viking offense will struggle to keep up with the other teams in the NFC North. Defensively, the Vikings have a solid defensive line, but otherwise the cupboard is pretty bare. Amerson is the best back end defender in the draft right now and at 6-2, has ideal size for the position. With the kind of big, strong, receivers the Vikes see in the division - guys like Jordy Nelson, Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall - getting a corner who can match-up with them is paramount. Amerson excels in zone coverage where he can read the quarterback and play in space, utilizing his long frame and explosion to the ball. He'd be a perfect fit in Minnesota's defense where he can press receivers at the line and play zone in their cover 2 alignments.
6.) Arizona Cardinals: Tyler Wilson QB Arkansas (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 2)
Needs: QB,OL,LB,CB,TE
While it may be a tad too soon to write Kevin Kolb's obituary in Arizona, it's certainly relevant to mention that the Cardinals have a problem at quarterback, which is to say, they may not have one. This is a draft loaded with quarterback talent with as many as seven legitimate NFL starters. That's seven more than Arizona has and it ought to be their priority to get one of them. Wilson or Logan Thomas - whose stock could really take off if he leads Virginia Tech to an ACC title - would give the Cardinals an upgrade under center. Both Thomas and Wilson have the athletic ability to escape pressure, while Wilson is the better pocket passer. The Cardinals have receivers and a group of running backs which means even a mediocre offensive line should be sufficient if you have an average quarterback. The Cardinals don't and they should jump at the chance to get one.
7.) St. Louis Rams (F/ Redskins) Jarvis Jones OLB Georgia (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 8)
Needs:OL,WR,LB,TE,DB
This pick comes to the Rams from Washington in the RG3 trade and it seems unlikely this pick will be any lower than 10. St. Louis is a hard team to figure because the Seahawks look poised to improve and the 49ers are not going to give up the division crown. On the other hand, the Cardinals are weak and the Rams significantly improved their team in the offseason through the draft and free agency. While there are more pressing needs for the Rams like offensive line and wide receiver, Jones is a unique talent in the mold of Von Miller. The Georgia senior is powerful and quick off the edge, but can play in space which means he could be outside linebacker in a 4-3 defense in the NFL. Jones played stand-up end at Georgia and probably isn't strong enough to consistently anchor the edge as a defensive end, but his explosiveness and violence coming around the corner are superlative. As a linebacker, Jones wouldn't be responsible for holding up against the run as often, but would be able to use his quickness in space to create problems for opposing tackles.
8.) St. Louis Rams: Taylor Lewan OT Michigan (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 10)
Needs:OL,WR,LB,TE,DB
With two picks in the top 10, the Rams could gamble a little with the second pick should they choose one of the safer picks like Jones with the first. A receiver like Robert Woods or a running back like Marcus Lattimore could be wild cards here, but the Ram offensive line remains a problem and Lewan is the best lineman in the draft at this point. A mauler with long arms, Lewan has paved the way for the dynamic Michigan offense under Denard Robinson. Having faced elite college rushers like Whitney Mercillus and William Gholston in the Big 10, Lewan is a known commodity with considerable upside. He has some balance issues and tends to lean a little too much, but just a junior, Lewan has enough athletic talent to be worth a top 10 pick.
9.) Tennessee Titans: Sam Montgomery DE LSU (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 7)
Needs: CB,TE,DE,OL,WR
Tennessee has been trying without much succeess to replace Kyle Vanden Bosch ever since he left. Derrick Morgan has just 2.5 sacks in two years since being drafted in the first round and Kamerion Wimbley, signed as a free agent this offseason, is an average end at best (4 of his 7 sacks last season came in one game). Montgomery does come with some risks, he's added about 30 pounds heading into this season, which could help him hold up better against the run, but it could also take away from his quickness and burst, thus hurting his pass rush abilities. He's also missed time with a major ACL injury, although he still managed to lead a historically good LSU defense in sacks last year. I'm not as high on Montgomery as some (I saw him get handled by tight ends last year...that worries me), but if his added weight means he anchors better and still has the speed, he's certainly a first round talent.
10.) Oakland Raiders: Robert Woods WR USC (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 13)
Needs: OL,WR,TE,DE,OLB,DB
Hopefully, for Oakland's sake, they're finally going to admit that they're rebuilding. If I'm new GM Reggie McKenzie, I'm thinking long and hard about getting one of these top quarterbacks, particularly Logan Thomas if he's on the board here. Carson Palmer still being an average starter mitigates some of the concerns with this team, but the reality is they're just not very good. Woods is not the best player on the board here (and McKenzie did go to the Ted Thompson school of managing), but he is the highest rated player at a need position. I'm not convinced Woods is a true #1 wide receiver, although he plays bigger than his 6-1 184 pound frame suggests. He is a willing blocker in the run game, and will put his shoulder into corners after he makes the catch. With Denarius Moore and Darius Heyward-Bey already in place, however, Woods could be an ideal compliment to their deep speed with his ability to find spots in zones.
11.) New York Jets: Marcus Lattimore RB South Carolina (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 12)
Needs: WR,OL,QB,OLB,RB,S
Much like the Cardinals, the New York Jets don't have an NFL-caliber quarterback. They just don't. I'm not sure the administration in the Big Apple have time to draft someone like Logan Thomas, particularly with Tim Tebow on the roster (There will be tremendous pressure on the Jets to start Tebow if Sanchez struggles which he will...because, well, he's not very good). Part of the problem with this offense, though, is it doesn't have very many difference-makers. Having already taken Stephen Hill this last draft, reaching for a wide receiver isn't necessary. If you're going to stick with Sanchez/Tebow, the running game has to be better. Shonn Greene has shown flashes with the Jets, but Lattimore is a the kind of horse you can hitch your wagon to and ride. He has the same kind of power Greene has, but posses better vision, is more elusive and more explosive. A corner like Xavier Rhodes could make sense as well given the struggles of nickel corner Kyle Wilson.
12.) Seattle Seahawks: Xavier Rhodes CB Florida State (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 15)
Needs: CB,WR,G,OLB,RT
It was surprising to see Seattle fail to address the corner position in April's draft, but given the talent level of receivers in the NFC, particularly on the conference's elite teams, the Seahawks have to improve at that position at some point. It doesn't appear Pete Carroll is thinking he's rebuilding by starting Russell Wilson and Wilson has looked brilliant in the preseason. Defensively, though, is where Pete Caroll makes his money and where the Seahawks will have to be tight with a young quarterback at the helm. Rhodes is a dynamic talent who will play physically at the line of scrimmage. He doesn't have big-time production in terms of pass break-ups and interceptions, but part of that comes from teams being unwilling to challenge him. That will change in the NFL and he will have to use better technique to stay with receivers down the field, but he would be an upgrade for the Seahawks.
13.) Carolina Panthers:Johnathan Hankins DT Ohio State (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 9)
Needs: CB,WR,TE,DT,OL
This may seem too high for Carolina, but consider that an 8-8 team picked at 13 last year and the Panthers will be hard-pressed to beat that mark in the ultra-competitive NFC South. Cam Newton should progress, although he did hit the wall last year after setting the league on fire to begin the season. Had Newton's defense been a little better for him in 2011, he may have won a few more games, but the squad lacks elite talent. Luke Kuechley was a great pick and Charles Johnson is a solid defensive end, but the front seven is below average overall and adding a talent like Hankins would be a considerable boost. Hankins, despite carrying about 330 pounds on his 6-3 frame, moves extremely well and has a knack for reading and reacting with explosiveness. His quickness off the ball allows him to shoot gaps and penetrate, while his wide frame can eat up space and blockers for Kuechley and Jon Beason to make plays behind him.
14.) Buffalo Bills: Manti Te'o ILB Notre Dame (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 11)
Needs: OL,WR,LB,S,TE,CB
Buffalo is another team whose season is difficult to predict because the offense is so capable of scoring points and the defense appears to be better, but they play in a tough division and finished so poorly last year. The defensive front four is vastly improved with Mario Williams and Mark Anderson, but their linebackers are undersized and a player like Manti Te'o who is physical and instinctive could really fit well behind this extremely talented defensive line group. Te'o, even at 255 pounds, is athletic and has terrific range sideline to sideline. He's exactly the kind of athlete the Bills like for this defense. He does need to get better anchoring against the run, but with guys like Marcel Dareus in front of him creating havoc for offensive lines, there should be a ton of lanes for Te'o to attack.
15.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: William Gholston DE Michigan (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 14)
Needs: LB,WR,DL,TE,G
Tampa Bay had the best offseason money can buy, but I'm still not sure they're a 10+ win team, particularly in the South division. Josh Freeman regressed last season and forced far too many throws. With a better offensive line and a legitimate top-flight receiver in Vincent Jackson, Freeman will have to prove his rookie season was not a fluke. The biggest concern about this team right now is on the defensive side of the ball. The front seven is lacking impact players and Gholston is a physically gifted player who could be an elite pass rusher if he can refine his technique and play with better discipline. In his first draft, head coach Greg Schiano took proven guys from top-level programs without much risk, but Gholston may have too much upside to ignore here, especially without an elite pass rusher on this roster.
16.) Detroit Lions: Eric Reid S LSU (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 18)
Needs: OLB,OL,WR,DL,RB
In the NFC North, the Bears are vastly improved and Green Bay comes in with a chip on its shoulder, which means Detroit will have to clean up its sloppiness from a year ago in order to remain a playoff team. For me, there are still too many questions, whether it's Matthew Stafford's health, or the ability for this team to execute under pressure, to believe both the Packers and Bears won't finish ahead of Detroit this season. That being said, it's a talented roster short just a few pieces. The defensive backfield is the biggest problem on this defense, probably this team, and Reid is the best defensive back on the board. In fact, this could actually end up being too low for the LSU prospect who is a big hitter. If anything, tries to knock people out too often and needs to be more fundamentally sound as a tackler. Otherwise, his ball skills and instincts are stellar and he compares favorably to some of the top safeties taken in recent drafts.
17.) Cincinatti Bengals: Jackson Jeffcoat DE Texas (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 20)
Needs: RB,WR,S,OLB,TE
Cinci could be in a position here to trade down with someone wanted to snag one of the quarterbacks left. I think there will be at least three, maybe four or five quarterbacks taken in the first round and someone maybe be willing to trade this far back into the first to get one. The Bengals have one of the best front sevens in football and the defensive interior is probably the best in the NFL. On the other hand, they don't have an elite edge rusher and Jeffcoat is explosive around the corner. He'll need to get bigger to play 4-3 defense end in the NFL, but he could be used by the Bengals in much the same way the 49ers used Aldon Smith as a situational rusher. Jeffcoat does have the frame to add strength, but you also want him to remain explosive. Taking a risk and for a player like Justin Hunter to pair with A.J. Green could be worth it for a team without many glaring holes.
18.) Dallas Cowboys: Luke Joeckel OL Texas A&M (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 17)
Needs: S,G,WR,OLB,TE
Part of me wants to believe in this Cowboys team because the talent they have is so compelling. I've just seen nothing in the Tony Romo era to believe that either he or this team is capable of winning big games when they have to. Philadelphia is more talented and New York is more proven, which means Dallas can be no better than third and still has some glaring holes in the secondary and in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Luke Joeckel could slide inside to guard, or move Doug Free inside, giving the Cowboys a deep, young core on the offensive line. Joeckel is viewed as an elite prospect by some and may not fall this far, which makes Barrett Jones from Alabama, who can also play guard or tackle, a possibility here. If this season does end up with another missed postseason though, don't be surprised to see Jerry Jones find a way to take one of these stud quarterbacks.
19.) Kansas City Chiefs: Logan Thomas QB Virginia Tech (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 16)
Needs: WR,CB,TE,S,QB
For K.C. fans who might think this is crazy, remember that the Chiefs were one of the teams in on Robert Griffin III last year and are looking at Matt Cassell at quarterback who is 30, yet has never put two straight productive seasons together (not to mention has never started 16 games in a season in his career). Kansas City signed Brady Quinn this offseason, but with a young core of skill position players, it might be a better option to take a flier with someone dripping with talent like Thomas and give him a season or two to sit. If the Chiefs are serious about getting a young, dual-threat quarterback, this is the year to do it and Thomas might be a perfect fit. Unfortunately, this might also be 10 spots too late, considering Thomas accounted for 30 touchdowns last year in the ACC in just his first year as a starter. The Cam Newton comparisons have already been thrown out there and if Thomas repeats his success from a year ago, this will almost certainly be too low. If Ryan Tannehill can go in the top 15, Thomas ought to be in the top 10 or higher.
20.) Denver Broncos: Barrett Jones G/T Alabama (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 18)
Needs: WR,G,DL,DB,TE
If you're going to pay Peyton Manning a boatload of money banking on him being healthy, then you have to do everything you can to keep him healthy. Jones can play any position on the line and is a tactician as a blocker, which makes up for his lack of elite athleticism. Given the volatility of injuries in the NFL, having a player adept at playing guard or tackle is a considerable advantage, especially a player like Jones who sees NFL-caliber defensive lineman every week in the SEC. Nabbing a receiver like Justin Harper or a corner like Johnthan Banks would also be upgrades for the Broncos, but getting better along the offensive front is something that benefits both the run and passing game. Also, Harper's skills, for instance, are relatively redundant on this Broncos team with Erick Decker and Demaryius Thomas, although Harper is more talented than both.
21.) San Diego Chargers: Ricky Wagner OT Wisconsin (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 22)
Needs: OL,CB,RB,ILB,SS
Phillip Rivers played so poorly last season that many observers were left wondering if the Pro Bowl quarterback was hiding a significant injury. In reality, Rivers wasn't battling injuries, he was battling a horrible offenses line and offensive weapons limited by injury. Antonio Gates is back healthy and a host of new receivers were brought in, but the offensive line remains a problem. Neither tackle on this roster is a world-beater and Jeromey Clary, the right tackle, was worked by Packers rookie Nick Perry in the preseason opener. Wagner comes from an elite offensive line program at Wisconsin and is a former tight end with solid athletic talent. He's extremely strong in his upper body and once he latches on, it's pretty much over for the defense. He does need to improve his balance, but he has only played the position for three years and has solid upside. He's certainly up upgrade at tackle and can play either the left or right side, though he's better suited on the right side.
22.) San Francisco 49ers: Johnthan Banks CB Mississippi State (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 21)
Needs: CB,QB,OL,TE,S
San Francisco was able to get away with mediocre cornerback talent for most of the season because its front seven is so dominating and can create so much pressure. But when you face top offenses in the playoffs, teams like New Orleans, New York and Green Bay, you can't have subpar corners because the offenses are simply too good. Carlos Rogers is really the only starting caliber corner on this team and Banks could make it a pair if he falls here. Banks has been extremely productive int he SEC, although he has played more off coverage than he might be asked to play in the NFL. Banks considered coming out early last season, but decided to return to Mississippi State for his senior season. Banks has solid ball skills, but his speed and tackling are question marks. Given the kind of pressure the 49ers can create upfront, Banks would have some of his range issues mitigated by pressure. LSU tackle Chris Faulk is also in play here.
23.) New Orleans Saints: Alex Okafor DE Texas (Pos. Rank: 5, Overall Rank: 24)
Needs: OL,OLB,S,DL,CB
Questions about BountyGate will dog New Orleans all season long and how they respond to the hanging cloud of scrutiny could largely determine the outcome of their season. With Drew Brees and that stable of offensive talent, the Saints will score a ton of points like they always do, but whether or not they can stop anybody is the major question. Last we saw, this defense was being gashed by Alex (bleeping) Smith. The Saints drafted Cameron Jordan in the first round two years ago and he underwhelmed in his rookie season. Will Smith has also underperformed the last two seasons and an infusion of life into this defense with Okafor could be exactly what they need. Okafor is powerful on the edge and is strong enough to anchor as a 4-3 end. He is adept at playing both run and pass and does have pass rush skills, although he's not at explosive as his teammate Jeffcoat.
24.) Chicago Bears: Chris Faulk OT LSU (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 27)
Needs: OL,S,TE,CB,LB
Chicago took considerable steps toward surrounding Jay Cutler with skilled talent, but failed to address the concerns upfront. Gabe Carimi played well last season after suffering a serious injury heading into his rookie campaign. Other than that, the Bears offensive line is at a loss for talent. Chris Williams has been a mega-bust and the rest of the players are just plug and play guys. Faulk is a terrific athlete for someone 6-5 323 pounds and moves well laterally to wall off defenders. As an underclassman, he's still getting better and has considerable athletic tools. He is similar in terms of his athletic gifts to the aforementioned Williams in that he is surprisingly athletic for his size, but Faulk has the demeanor and toughness Williams seems to lack. Faulk can be a legitimate left tackle in this league and would be quite the bookend to go with Carimi.
25.) New York Giants: Brandon Jenkins OLB Florida State (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 26)
Needs:TE,OT,LB,DT,DB
New York would love for one of the top tackles to be on the board when they pick in the first and they certainly could reach for someone like D.J. Fluker here. That being said, linebacker has been a rotating turnstile for the Giants over the last few seasons and it would be nice to get a top prospect in to bring some stability to the position. Jenkins is playing defensive end at Florida State, but is a tremendous athlete and could play in space as a linebacker, particularly on the strong side. If you're going to have a former defensive end playing linebacker as the Giants do with Mathias Kiwanuka, at least have it be a defensive end who isn't such a stiff athlete. Jenkins would be a nightmare for teams coming off the edge and can anchor in run support. Kawann Short at defensive tackle or Chance Warmack at guard also make some sense here if the Giants don't believe Jenkins can play linebacker.
26.) Philadelphia Eagles: Justin Hunter WR Tennessee (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 23)
Needs: OLB,G,DB,TE,OT
While I don't see the Eagles as a Super Bowl contender, I do expect a much better season this year than last. There's simply too much talent on the roster and I think they're going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder after failing so miserably last year. While there are bigger issues in terms of need at this spot, the Eagles may find it too hard to pass on a big, talented receiver to help them in the red zone where they have been so spotty the last few years. Hunter is a superlative athlete and was on pace to put up freakish numbers before tearing his ACL this pas season. If he's all the way back and lives up to this potential, there's no chance he falls this far and there is some speculation he could be a top 5 pick. As it stands now, he's a first round lock and would make a dynamic offense even better.
27.) Pittsburgh Steelers: Knile Davis RB Arkansas(Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 25)
Needs:G,RB,OT,DL,DB
Pittsburgh had one of those God giveth and God taketh away moments this offseason after somehow landing Stanford guard David DeCastro at the bottom of the first and then losing him for the season with an ACL injury. That leaves the Steelers offensive line a question, but also a question is the status of the running game. Knile Davis may be a better fit for the Pittsburgh offense which has become a more spread out attack. Davis is quick to the hole and capable of breaking off major chunks of yardage. The Razorback rusher is also capable out of the backfield and could be potent in Pittsburgh with those speedy receivers clearing space.
28.) Atlanta Falcons: Chance Warmack G Alabama (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 29)
Needs: OL,DT,TE,LB,CB
Atlanta drafted Wisconsin center Peter Konz this past April and moved him to guard, but the Falcons offensive line remains a considerable question. It's an inconsistent group lacking true standouts and when you've stocked up on skill position players, you have to give your franchise quarterback time to get them the ball. Warmack is one of the best lineman in the draft and loves to fire off and hit people for Nick Saban. His agility for his size is exceptional and if he were a little taller with longer arms could probably play tackle. As is, he's one of the top interior line prospects in the draft and would upgrade Atlanta's line right away.
29.) Baltimore Ravens: Tyler Eifert TE Notre Dame (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 27)
Needs: CB,OL,RB,S,WR
By this point in the draft, teams are typically good enough to take need out of the equation and draft for value. This is a spot where the Ravens could wind up with an outstanding value, as well as an immediate starter at tight end. Baltimore has faced a slew of injuries at the position to start this season and none of the players on the current roster are outstanding talents. Eifert is a top-flight pass catcher, and although his blocking is a work in progress, his sheer power is enough to believe he could be an outstanding presence in the run game. For the Ravens, though, his top priority will be working the middle of the field and keeping safeties occupied so guys like Torrey Smith can beat teams deep. Eifert uses his body well to make catches in traffic by shielding defenders and at 6-5 250, he can be a major factor in the red zone.
30.) Houston Texas: T.J. McDonald S USC (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 32)
Needs: S,OL,ILB,WR,QB
Houston is one of the most balanced teams in the NFL, boasting an elite running game, a top 5 wide receiver, and one of the best defenses in football. One of the few glaring holes on this team is at safety, where the Texans haven't had a blue-chip player since the franchise began. McDonald has been a blue-chip player since high school and came to USC as one of the most heavily recruited players in the nation. McDonald hasn't quite lived up to that billing, but has all of the skills you look for in a free safety. Think Taylor Mays without the questionable instincts and minus some of the speed. McDonald is actually more fluid in coverage than his predecessor at USC and should really bolster and already outstanding Texans defense.
31.) New England Patriots: Kawann Short DT Purdue (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 28)
Needs: CB,RB,OT,DE,S
I thought New England may target one of the top defensive tackles in last year's draft to go with Vince Wilfork and tackle remains a problem area for the Patriots who have trouble stopping anyone last season. Holes at safety and corner could also be addressed here, but Short is the best value of any player available. Short is, in some ways, Vince Wilfork light, as a space eater and pocket pusher. Like Wilfork, Short is also adept at getting into passing lanes and using his long arms to disrupt throws. Consistency has been an issue, but Short will not face nearly as many double teams in the NFL with opposing offenses more concerned about Wilfork. This could allow Short to play with the energy needed to fully realize his vast potential.
32.) Green Bay Packers: Kevin Reddick ILB North Carolina (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 30)
Needs: OL,S,RB,QB,LB
Green Bay's defense appears vastly improved from a year ago thanks to an influx of young talent as well as a clean bill of health for players like Tramon Williams and Clay Matthews, both of whom battled injuries all season. While it didn't benefit the Packers to cut A.J. Hawk before this season given his contract, it could save them millions next year and with Desmond Bishop out for the year, there are questions inside for the Pack. Reddick was seen by some scouts last year as a potential first round pick because of his ability to run and react. While not the athlete of his some of his peers, Reddick relies on his vision and instincts to make plays, something that will not cause Ted Thompson to shy away from the Tar Heel All-American. Reddick would certainly be in the mix to start right away given Green Bay's affinity for giving young players the chance to make an impact early on.
Tuesday, August 28, 2012
Friday, April 27, 2012
2012 NFL Draft: Round 1 Recap
I predicted yesterday that you'd see one of the crazier first rounds in recent memory. The rookie wage scale has made it a much lower risk to be aggressive and target players higher in the draft.
The point being, it won't cost as much as it used to.
We saw eight trades last night, right around average for the first round (a little over seven is the average), and half of the 32 picks were owned by more than one team at some time or another.
That rookie wage scale may have been why we saw some considerable reaching being done as well. The thought process being, this is the guy we want and we don't have to pay him exorbitant dollars, so let's pull the trigger and not worry about what round we're in.
Guys like Bruce Irvin and A.J. Jenkins didn't even make second round grades coming into the draft, so to see them go in the first, particularly with Jenkins, was shocking.
Some savvy moves from Minnesota (I know, I was as surprised as you were) and New England landed them some solid players with good value.
There are still three legitimate first round players available and as many as nine more fringe first round talents (8 of my top 32 are still available!), so there are plenty of quality players to be had tonight. A team like the Rams, with three picks in the top 13, could get quite a haul of talent, despite missing out on the top two wide receivers in the draft.
1.) Indianapolis Colts (2-14) Andrew Luck QB Stanford (Projected Pick: Andrew Luck)
Needs:OL,RB,LB,WR,CB,DT
Let's not quibble over his potential vs. RG3, this was the right pick and the Colts made it. He's a Pro Bowl player, but he will need some help around him.
2.) Washington Redskins (F/ Rams) Robert Griffin III QB Baylor (Projected Pick: Robert Griffin III)
Needs: QB,DL,OL,TE,DB
His draft day hat is about the only thing that doesn't fit about RG3 and Washington. This offense was made for a quarterback with quickness and a strong arm. The Redskins gave up a lot, but they got a franchise player in return.
3.) Cleveland Browns (F/ Vikings) Trent Richardson RB Alabama (Projected Pick: Justin Blackmon)
Needs: WR,OL,S,RB,QB,OLB
Somehow, the Vikings suckered the Browns into believing either the Jets or the Bucs were seriously considering moving into the #3 spot to take Richardson, so Cleveland made sure that didn't happen. Richardson immediately becomes on of the elite running backs in the league. I still think staying put and taking Blackmon made more sense.
4.) Minnesota Vikings (F/ Browns) Matt Khalil OT USC (Projected Pick: Matt Khalil)
Needs: OL,DB,WR,DT,LB
Well played Vikings. I tried to tell you yesterday Minnesota intended all along to take Khalil, although I think they would have been genuinely happy to take Claiborne if they had to. Khalil has Pro Bowl potential as a left tackle, but there are concerns about his strength and power anchoring. Vikes needed him badly.
5.) Jacksonville Jaguars (F/ Buccaneers) Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State (Projected Pick: Melvin Ingram DE/DT South Carolina)
Needs: WR,DE,OL,DB,RB
I predicted the Jags would trade down if Blackmon didn't fall, but when the Oklahoma State receiver got past the Vikings, Jacksonville didn't waste any time. Blackmon will be Blaine Gabbert's top target with his powerful body and excellent hands. Concerns about his speed are vastly overrated. As Mel Kiper Jr. noted last night, you never saw anyone catch him from behind.
6.) Dallas Cowboys (8-8) Morris Claiborne CB LSU (Projected Pick: Michael Brockers)
Needs: OL,DL,DB,WR,TE
Allegedly (I say that because who knows what to believe with Jerry Jones), Claiborne was the highest rated corner of their board since Deion Sanders. To me, that's ridiculous with guys like Charles Woodson and Champ Bailey having been drafted since then and Claiborne isn't even close to their talent. Dallas needed the help in the secondary though and got a corner with excellent ball skills. He's still overrated in my opinion.
7.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (F/ Jaguars) Mark Barron S Alabama (Projected Pick: Trent Richardson)
Needs: LB,DB,OL,TE,RB,WR
Tampa knew when it traded back that the chances they'd land Morris Claiborne were slim. Barron, to me, is the first real reach of this draft, although I think he's going to be a solid NFL player. Under the old CBA, I think there's no way Tampa takes a safety this high and a guy like Luke Kuechley would have been more likely.
8.) Miami Dolphins (6-10) Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M (Projected Pick: Ryan Tannehill)
Needs: OL,QB,WR,LB,TE,S
The best thing I can say about this pick is at least they didn't trade up. Tannehill has more upside than the quarterbacks after him in this draft, but he has a lower floor than the next few as well. It's the best case scenario for Tannehill however, with his former head coach and Aaron Rodger's former coach running this offense.
9.) Carolina Panthers (6-10) Luke Kuechley MLB Boston College (Projected Pick: Luke Kuechley)
Needs: CB,WR,S,LB, DL
Good for the Panthers for sticking to their board here and taking the best player who can help them next year. Kuechley is a unique linebacker talent with outstanding awareness to read and react, especially in coverage. A pass rusher had to have been tempting, but Kuechley isn't just a "safe" pick, he has Pro Bowl talent.
10.) Buffalo Bills (6-10) Stephon Gilmore CB South Carolina (Projected Pick: Stephon Gilmore)
Needs: OL,WR,LB,DB,TE
This was a pick I'd projected, but not necessarily what I would have done. I have Kirkpatrick rated higher than Gilmore, but a ton of NFL personnel had it this way. I can't argue the position though because the Bills have struggled to find corners to play against the pass happy teams in the AFC.
11.) Kansas City Chiefs (7-9) Dontari Poe DT Memphis (Projected Pick: Mark Barron)
Needs: WR,TE,OL,NT,LB
Immediately after the combine, I pegged this as a potential landing spot for Poe. The Chiefs desperately needed a nose tackle to eat up blocks and help what was a horrible run defense. Poe doesn't show on film what he flashed at the combine, but if anyone can get maximize his talent it's Romeo Crennel, an excellent former d-line coach.
12.) Philadelphia Eagles (F/ Seahawks) Fletcher Cox DT Mississippi State (Projected Pick: Fletcher Cox)
Needs:OL,LB,DT,S,RB,WR
Only the second pick so far in the draft with a net positive value, the Eagles get the best defensive tackle in the draft to anchor a defensive line with explosive ends but a flimsy middle. Cox has monster potential and makes this Eagles defense better right away with his power and quickness.
13.) Arizona Cardinals (8-8) Michael Floyd WR Notre Dame (Projected Pick: Riley Reiff OT Iowa)
Needs: OL,OLB,WR,DB,RB
There were greater needs and better values available with this pick, but Arizona got the player they wanted and in the process created a dynamic receiver tandem with Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald. As I tweeted last night, if Kevin Kolb can't complete passes to these guys, he should just retire.
14.) St. Louis Rams (F/ Cowboys) Michael Brockers DT LSU (Projected Pick: Morris Claiborne)
Needs: WR,DB,OL,OLB,DT
St. Louis twice missed out on taking the best receiver available by just one pick while also failing to get one of the top corners in the draft. Brockers has been a Rams target all along and apparently was a consideration at #6 if they'd stayed. In terms of physical tools, Brockers is an impact run-stopper right away in the NFL and has the potential to be a solid pass rusher with some work.
15.) Seattle Seahawks (F/ Eagles) Bruce Irvin DE/OLB West Virginia (Projected Pick: Quinton Coples)
Needs: OL,LB,CB,TE,WR
Seattle had their choice of any pass rusher in the draft, yet they chose a guy who was a fringe second round prospect. Irvin is one of the most unique athletes we've seen as a defensive end with 4.4 speed, but his size and strength limitations are concerning, especially for a 4-3 team. He's a situational rusher in the NFL and the Seahawks have to hope they catch lightening in a bottle the way the 49ers did last year with Aldon Smith's situation rush success.
16.) New York Jets (8-8) Quinton Coples DE North Carolina (Projected Pick: Michael Floyd)
Needs: OLB,OL,WR,DL,RB
Some are down on this pick for the Jets, but I'm one of the few who thinks this a great fit. Coples is perhaps the most physically gifted pass rusher in the draft, but doesn't always give consistent effort. On a defense with players like David Harris and Darrelle Revis, not to mention lead by Rex Ryan, I don't see how Coples gives any less than 100%. If he plays hard, there is scary talent in that big body, to the point there was speculation heading into the season Coples could be a top 5 pick.
17.) Bengals (F/ Oakland) Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama (Projected Pick: Dre Kirkpatrick)
Needs: DB,G,WR,RB,LB
Plenty of people were shocked when Cinci pulled the trigger on Kirkpatrick over such an outstanding guard like David DeCastro. You could argue that guard was a greater position of need, although, as I argued yesterday, Kirkpatrick plays an impact position. You need at least three corners to be successful in the NFL with these offenses and the Bengals get one of the more underrated talents in the draft.
18.) San Diego Chargers (8-8) Melvin Ingram OLB South Carolina (Projected Pick:David DeCastro)
Needs: DL,LB,OL,DB,WR
The Chargers might be the only team I can begrudge taking someone over DeCastro because pass rush has been such a problem for this team. Shaun Phillips is getting older and outside of Antwan Barnes, this team doesn't have much. Ingram is a versatile defender with a relentless motor and while I'm not as high on him as others, I think this is a perfect team at a perfect spot in the draft for him.
19.) Chicago Bears (8-8) Shea McClellin DE Boise State (Projected Pick: Whitney Mercilus)
Needs: OL,CB,DE,TE,LB
This one is a head-scratcher because Chicago's defensive line is in much better shape than the offensive line, not to mention McClellin is, at best, the fourth best available pass rusher. Kendall Wright would have made more sense as well. McClellin will be an under-sized 4-3 defensive end who relies on quickness and relentlessness to get to the quarterback. He's a poor man's Clay Matthews, making this a big-time reach.
20.) Tennessee Titans (9-7) Kendall Wright WR Baylor (Projected Pick: Dontari Poe)
Needs: WR,CB,DL,TE,OL
I can't question this pick here because I've projected it at various times throughout the draft process, but there may be a question of value here. That being said, Wright is a potentially explosive compliment to the bigger receivers Tennessee already has and can work out of the slot with success. Given Tennessee's apparent focus on interior blocking this year, I was somewhat surprised to see the Titans also pass on DeCastro.
21.) New England Patriots (F/ Bengals) Chandler Jones DE Syracuse (Projected Pick: Chandler Jones)
Needs:DE,DB,OL,RB,LB
Terrific pick for the Patriots who get a player to bring a pass rush back to this defense. Jones was hurt to start the year, otherwise he likely would have been a first round prospect heading into the draft process. His closing speed is what makes him so attractive because once he gets around the corner he's on top of the ball carrier in a hurry. Trading up is worth it for the Pats, who needed to make sure they get one of these first round rushers and had plenty of picks to use.
22.) Cleveland Browns (F/ Atlanta) Brandon Weeden QB Oklahoma State (Projected Pick Jonathan Martin)
Needs: WR,OL,S,RB,QB,OLB
This was one of the worst kept secrets of the draft. Everyone knew the Browns wanted to take Weeden, but Cleveland was worried he wouldn't last until the top of the second round (I'm not convinced they were wrong about that). I predicted they'd trade back into the first to nab Weeden late, but instead they sit at #22 to take the Oklahoma state quarterback. At 28, age is a concern, but Weeden is as NFL ready as any player in the draft and if he can be a legitimate starter for seven or eight seasons, that's all you can ask for late in the first.
23.) Detroit Lions (10-6) Riley Reiff OT Iowa (Projected Pick: Dont'a Hightower)
Needs: DB,LB,RB,WR,OL
Detroit finally gets to feel the euphoria of watching a highly-ranked player at a need position fall because the teams ahead of you are reaching. Usually it's the other way around and the Lions are the ones doing the reaching. In this case though, the Lions grab the second best tackle in the draft as he tumbled down the board, much like the Packers did with fellow Iowa tackle Bryan Bulaga. Reiff isn't quite as talented as Bulaga, but is just as polished and physical. Great pick for the Lions.
24.) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) David DeCastro G Stanford (Projected Pick: Courtney Upshaw)
Needs: OL,DL,LB,RB,DB
Perhaps no team in the league is better at letting the draft come to them than the Pittsburgh Steelers and this pick shows why. DeCastro has been compared to current Steelers guard Alan Faneca and may be the best guard prospect since Steve Hutchinson. To get a player at such a need position with this kind of value is a bit of luck, but Pittsburgh still had to make the pick. There may not be a better fit between player and team in the whole draft.
25.) New England Patriots (F/ Broncos) Dont'a Hightower LB Alabama (Projected Pick: Trade w/ Browns)
Needs:DE,DB,OL,RB,LB
An unusually aggressive Patriots draft nabs them a tough, physical linebacker for a team lacking the kind of hard-hitting mentality Hightower brings. Playing downhill and always looking to blow someone up, Hightower probably won't play middle linebacker because his coverage skills leave something to be desired. As as an outside 'backer and situational pass rusher, Hightower can be an impact player for the Patriots who are now loaded with former SEC linebackers.
26.) Houston Texans (10-6) Whitney Mercilus DE Illinois (Projected Pick: Kendall Wright)
Needs: S,WR,OL,DE,QB
The rich get richer as the Texans, much improved on defense a year ago, add a dynamic sackman from Illinois to help replace Mario Williams. The two are actually physically similar with long, lean bodies, although Williams is stronger and more powerful coming off the corner. Houston could use Mercilus as a 3-4 linebacker or end depending on the situation and with guys like J.J. Watt and Brooks Reed, he'll have time to develop after just one year as a starter in college.
27.) Cincinnati Bengals (F/ Patriots) Kevin Zeitler G Wisconsin (Projected Pick Cordy Glenn)
Needs: DB,G,WR,RB,LB
If the Bengals wanted a guard, I don't know why they didn't just take DeCastro at #21 instead of trading back to take Zeitler who is a solid player, but doesn't have the upside of DeCastro. That being said, the Bengals did acquire picks and were able to grab a smart, physical player who is the kind of mauler the Bengals love to have upfront. Solid pick, but it's hard to be too excited when you could have had one of the top 10 talents in this draft at the same position.
28.) Green Bay Packers (15-1) Nick Perry OLB USC (Projected Pick: Nick Perry)
Needs: OLB,DL,S,OL,CB
Cheeshead Nation may have been more excited about Courtney Upshaw, but when it comes to upside, Perry was a top 10 guy as a pass rusher. With explosive speed and power, Perry flashes the ability take move his 271 pound frame exceedingly well (He ran a 4.58 at the combine. That's unreal). Unfortunately, he'll disappear at times, whether it's conditioning or hustle or both. Even so, Green Bay has the coaches - Kevin Greene and Dom Capers - to maximize his vast talents. Great pick.
29.) Minnesota Vikings (F/ Ravens) Harrison Smith S Notre Dame (Projected Pick: None)
Needs: OL,DB,WR,DT,LB
This was a pick where the Vikings reached, but it's hard to blame them for it. Minnesota's defensive backfield is a shambles and Smith was the second best safety in the draft, even if he's rated as a second rounder. His range isn't great and his impact is more in the box, so he's not a great fit for the Cover 2 defense in Minnesota, but the secondary had to be improved somehow.
30.) San Francisco 49ers (13-3) A.J. Jenkins WR Illinois (Projected Pick:Amini Silatolu)
Needs: CB,OL,S,RB,DL,TE
If Bruce Irvin was a reach then this was a staggering, falling down grab. I guess if you're the 49ers you have Jenkins targeted as a big play slot receiver and you don't care about value. Jenkins had been a rising prospect, but I had him at #99 overall which means I didn't expect him to have his name called until Saturday. I think that tells you what I think of this pick.
31.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (F/ Broncos) Doug Martin RB Boise State (Projected Pick: Trade)
Needs: LB,DB,OL,TE,RB,WR
This pick changed hands twice before the Bucs snatched it up to take the versatile Boise running back. After trading back with Richardson off the board, it's not surprising that Greg Schiano would want a player with Martin's skill set for his offense. Martin can be a poor man's Ray Rice with his versatility and given that Rice played for Schiano at Rutgers, this pick makes a lot of sense.
32.) New York Giants (9-7) David Wilson RB Virginia Tech (Projected Pick: Levonte David)
Needs: OL,CB,LB,RB,WR
New York makes a somewhat surprising pick to end the round with the speedy running back from Virginia Tech. Wilson is actually very similar to Ahmad Bradshaw, down to the fumbling and durability concerns. New York did have a need at running back, but with a versatile offensive lineman like Cordy Glenn or a pass-catching tight end like Coby Fleener still on the board, this seems somewhat strange.
The top 10 players still available heading into tonight:
1.) Courtney Upshaw OLB Alabama (19)
2.) Cordy Glenn OT/G Georgia (21)
3.) Levonte David OLB Nebraska (25)
4.) Jonathan Martin OT Stanford (26)
5.) Devon Still DT Penn State (28)
6.) Coby Fleener TE Stanford (29)
7.) Peter Konz C Wisconsin (30)
8.) Stephen Hill WR Georgia Tech (32)
9.) Jerel Worthy DT Michigan State (33)
10.) Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama (35)
The point being, it won't cost as much as it used to.
We saw eight trades last night, right around average for the first round (a little over seven is the average), and half of the 32 picks were owned by more than one team at some time or another.
That rookie wage scale may have been why we saw some considerable reaching being done as well. The thought process being, this is the guy we want and we don't have to pay him exorbitant dollars, so let's pull the trigger and not worry about what round we're in.
Guys like Bruce Irvin and A.J. Jenkins didn't even make second round grades coming into the draft, so to see them go in the first, particularly with Jenkins, was shocking.
Some savvy moves from Minnesota (I know, I was as surprised as you were) and New England landed them some solid players with good value.
There are still three legitimate first round players available and as many as nine more fringe first round talents (8 of my top 32 are still available!), so there are plenty of quality players to be had tonight. A team like the Rams, with three picks in the top 13, could get quite a haul of talent, despite missing out on the top two wide receivers in the draft.
1.) Indianapolis Colts (2-14) Andrew Luck QB Stanford (Projected Pick: Andrew Luck)
Needs:OL,RB,LB,WR,CB,DT
Let's not quibble over his potential vs. RG3, this was the right pick and the Colts made it. He's a Pro Bowl player, but he will need some help around him.
2.) Washington Redskins (F/ Rams) Robert Griffin III QB Baylor (Projected Pick: Robert Griffin III)
Needs: QB,DL,OL,TE,DB
His draft day hat is about the only thing that doesn't fit about RG3 and Washington. This offense was made for a quarterback with quickness and a strong arm. The Redskins gave up a lot, but they got a franchise player in return.
3.) Cleveland Browns (F/ Vikings) Trent Richardson RB Alabama (Projected Pick: Justin Blackmon)
Needs: WR,OL,S,RB,QB,OLB
Somehow, the Vikings suckered the Browns into believing either the Jets or the Bucs were seriously considering moving into the #3 spot to take Richardson, so Cleveland made sure that didn't happen. Richardson immediately becomes on of the elite running backs in the league. I still think staying put and taking Blackmon made more sense.
4.) Minnesota Vikings (F/ Browns) Matt Khalil OT USC (Projected Pick: Matt Khalil)
Needs: OL,DB,WR,DT,LB
Well played Vikings. I tried to tell you yesterday Minnesota intended all along to take Khalil, although I think they would have been genuinely happy to take Claiborne if they had to. Khalil has Pro Bowl potential as a left tackle, but there are concerns about his strength and power anchoring. Vikes needed him badly.
5.) Jacksonville Jaguars (F/ Buccaneers) Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State (Projected Pick: Melvin Ingram DE/DT South Carolina)
Needs: WR,DE,OL,DB,RB
I predicted the Jags would trade down if Blackmon didn't fall, but when the Oklahoma State receiver got past the Vikings, Jacksonville didn't waste any time. Blackmon will be Blaine Gabbert's top target with his powerful body and excellent hands. Concerns about his speed are vastly overrated. As Mel Kiper Jr. noted last night, you never saw anyone catch him from behind.
6.) Dallas Cowboys (8-8) Morris Claiborne CB LSU (Projected Pick: Michael Brockers)
Needs: OL,DL,DB,WR,TE
Allegedly (I say that because who knows what to believe with Jerry Jones), Claiborne was the highest rated corner of their board since Deion Sanders. To me, that's ridiculous with guys like Charles Woodson and Champ Bailey having been drafted since then and Claiborne isn't even close to their talent. Dallas needed the help in the secondary though and got a corner with excellent ball skills. He's still overrated in my opinion.
7.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (F/ Jaguars) Mark Barron S Alabama (Projected Pick: Trent Richardson)
Needs: LB,DB,OL,TE,RB,WR
Tampa knew when it traded back that the chances they'd land Morris Claiborne were slim. Barron, to me, is the first real reach of this draft, although I think he's going to be a solid NFL player. Under the old CBA, I think there's no way Tampa takes a safety this high and a guy like Luke Kuechley would have been more likely.
8.) Miami Dolphins (6-10) Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M (Projected Pick: Ryan Tannehill)
Needs: OL,QB,WR,LB,TE,S
The best thing I can say about this pick is at least they didn't trade up. Tannehill has more upside than the quarterbacks after him in this draft, but he has a lower floor than the next few as well. It's the best case scenario for Tannehill however, with his former head coach and Aaron Rodger's former coach running this offense.
9.) Carolina Panthers (6-10) Luke Kuechley MLB Boston College (Projected Pick: Luke Kuechley)
Needs: CB,WR,S,LB, DL
Good for the Panthers for sticking to their board here and taking the best player who can help them next year. Kuechley is a unique linebacker talent with outstanding awareness to read and react, especially in coverage. A pass rusher had to have been tempting, but Kuechley isn't just a "safe" pick, he has Pro Bowl talent.
10.) Buffalo Bills (6-10) Stephon Gilmore CB South Carolina (Projected Pick: Stephon Gilmore)
Needs: OL,WR,LB,DB,TE
This was a pick I'd projected, but not necessarily what I would have done. I have Kirkpatrick rated higher than Gilmore, but a ton of NFL personnel had it this way. I can't argue the position though because the Bills have struggled to find corners to play against the pass happy teams in the AFC.
11.) Kansas City Chiefs (7-9) Dontari Poe DT Memphis (Projected Pick: Mark Barron)
Needs: WR,TE,OL,NT,LB
Immediately after the combine, I pegged this as a potential landing spot for Poe. The Chiefs desperately needed a nose tackle to eat up blocks and help what was a horrible run defense. Poe doesn't show on film what he flashed at the combine, but if anyone can get maximize his talent it's Romeo Crennel, an excellent former d-line coach.
12.) Philadelphia Eagles (F/ Seahawks) Fletcher Cox DT Mississippi State (Projected Pick: Fletcher Cox)
Needs:OL,LB,DT,S,RB,WR
Only the second pick so far in the draft with a net positive value, the Eagles get the best defensive tackle in the draft to anchor a defensive line with explosive ends but a flimsy middle. Cox has monster potential and makes this Eagles defense better right away with his power and quickness.
13.) Arizona Cardinals (8-8) Michael Floyd WR Notre Dame (Projected Pick: Riley Reiff OT Iowa)
Needs: OL,OLB,WR,DB,RB
There were greater needs and better values available with this pick, but Arizona got the player they wanted and in the process created a dynamic receiver tandem with Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald. As I tweeted last night, if Kevin Kolb can't complete passes to these guys, he should just retire.
14.) St. Louis Rams (F/ Cowboys) Michael Brockers DT LSU (Projected Pick: Morris Claiborne)
Needs: WR,DB,OL,OLB,DT
St. Louis twice missed out on taking the best receiver available by just one pick while also failing to get one of the top corners in the draft. Brockers has been a Rams target all along and apparently was a consideration at #6 if they'd stayed. In terms of physical tools, Brockers is an impact run-stopper right away in the NFL and has the potential to be a solid pass rusher with some work.
15.) Seattle Seahawks (F/ Eagles) Bruce Irvin DE/OLB West Virginia (Projected Pick: Quinton Coples)
Needs: OL,LB,CB,TE,WR
Seattle had their choice of any pass rusher in the draft, yet they chose a guy who was a fringe second round prospect. Irvin is one of the most unique athletes we've seen as a defensive end with 4.4 speed, but his size and strength limitations are concerning, especially for a 4-3 team. He's a situational rusher in the NFL and the Seahawks have to hope they catch lightening in a bottle the way the 49ers did last year with Aldon Smith's situation rush success.
16.) New York Jets (8-8) Quinton Coples DE North Carolina (Projected Pick: Michael Floyd)
Needs: OLB,OL,WR,DL,RB
Some are down on this pick for the Jets, but I'm one of the few who thinks this a great fit. Coples is perhaps the most physically gifted pass rusher in the draft, but doesn't always give consistent effort. On a defense with players like David Harris and Darrelle Revis, not to mention lead by Rex Ryan, I don't see how Coples gives any less than 100%. If he plays hard, there is scary talent in that big body, to the point there was speculation heading into the season Coples could be a top 5 pick.
17.) Bengals (F/ Oakland) Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama (Projected Pick: Dre Kirkpatrick)
Needs: DB,G,WR,RB,LB
Plenty of people were shocked when Cinci pulled the trigger on Kirkpatrick over such an outstanding guard like David DeCastro. You could argue that guard was a greater position of need, although, as I argued yesterday, Kirkpatrick plays an impact position. You need at least three corners to be successful in the NFL with these offenses and the Bengals get one of the more underrated talents in the draft.
18.) San Diego Chargers (8-8) Melvin Ingram OLB South Carolina (Projected Pick:David DeCastro)
Needs: DL,LB,OL,DB,WR
The Chargers might be the only team I can begrudge taking someone over DeCastro because pass rush has been such a problem for this team. Shaun Phillips is getting older and outside of Antwan Barnes, this team doesn't have much. Ingram is a versatile defender with a relentless motor and while I'm not as high on him as others, I think this is a perfect team at a perfect spot in the draft for him.
19.) Chicago Bears (8-8) Shea McClellin DE Boise State (Projected Pick: Whitney Mercilus)
Needs: OL,CB,DE,TE,LB
This one is a head-scratcher because Chicago's defensive line is in much better shape than the offensive line, not to mention McClellin is, at best, the fourth best available pass rusher. Kendall Wright would have made more sense as well. McClellin will be an under-sized 4-3 defensive end who relies on quickness and relentlessness to get to the quarterback. He's a poor man's Clay Matthews, making this a big-time reach.
20.) Tennessee Titans (9-7) Kendall Wright WR Baylor (Projected Pick: Dontari Poe)
Needs: WR,CB,DL,TE,OL
I can't question this pick here because I've projected it at various times throughout the draft process, but there may be a question of value here. That being said, Wright is a potentially explosive compliment to the bigger receivers Tennessee already has and can work out of the slot with success. Given Tennessee's apparent focus on interior blocking this year, I was somewhat surprised to see the Titans also pass on DeCastro.
21.) New England Patriots (F/ Bengals) Chandler Jones DE Syracuse (Projected Pick: Chandler Jones)
Needs:DE,DB,OL,RB,LB
Terrific pick for the Patriots who get a player to bring a pass rush back to this defense. Jones was hurt to start the year, otherwise he likely would have been a first round prospect heading into the draft process. His closing speed is what makes him so attractive because once he gets around the corner he's on top of the ball carrier in a hurry. Trading up is worth it for the Pats, who needed to make sure they get one of these first round rushers and had plenty of picks to use.
22.) Cleveland Browns (F/ Atlanta) Brandon Weeden QB Oklahoma State (Projected Pick Jonathan Martin)
Needs: WR,OL,S,RB,QB,OLB
This was one of the worst kept secrets of the draft. Everyone knew the Browns wanted to take Weeden, but Cleveland was worried he wouldn't last until the top of the second round (I'm not convinced they were wrong about that). I predicted they'd trade back into the first to nab Weeden late, but instead they sit at #22 to take the Oklahoma state quarterback. At 28, age is a concern, but Weeden is as NFL ready as any player in the draft and if he can be a legitimate starter for seven or eight seasons, that's all you can ask for late in the first.
23.) Detroit Lions (10-6) Riley Reiff OT Iowa (Projected Pick: Dont'a Hightower)
Needs: DB,LB,RB,WR,OL
Detroit finally gets to feel the euphoria of watching a highly-ranked player at a need position fall because the teams ahead of you are reaching. Usually it's the other way around and the Lions are the ones doing the reaching. In this case though, the Lions grab the second best tackle in the draft as he tumbled down the board, much like the Packers did with fellow Iowa tackle Bryan Bulaga. Reiff isn't quite as talented as Bulaga, but is just as polished and physical. Great pick for the Lions.
24.) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) David DeCastro G Stanford (Projected Pick: Courtney Upshaw)
Needs: OL,DL,LB,RB,DB
Perhaps no team in the league is better at letting the draft come to them than the Pittsburgh Steelers and this pick shows why. DeCastro has been compared to current Steelers guard Alan Faneca and may be the best guard prospect since Steve Hutchinson. To get a player at such a need position with this kind of value is a bit of luck, but Pittsburgh still had to make the pick. There may not be a better fit between player and team in the whole draft.
25.) New England Patriots (F/ Broncos) Dont'a Hightower LB Alabama (Projected Pick: Trade w/ Browns)
Needs:DE,DB,OL,RB,LB
An unusually aggressive Patriots draft nabs them a tough, physical linebacker for a team lacking the kind of hard-hitting mentality Hightower brings. Playing downhill and always looking to blow someone up, Hightower probably won't play middle linebacker because his coverage skills leave something to be desired. As as an outside 'backer and situational pass rusher, Hightower can be an impact player for the Patriots who are now loaded with former SEC linebackers.
26.) Houston Texans (10-6) Whitney Mercilus DE Illinois (Projected Pick: Kendall Wright)
Needs: S,WR,OL,DE,QB
The rich get richer as the Texans, much improved on defense a year ago, add a dynamic sackman from Illinois to help replace Mario Williams. The two are actually physically similar with long, lean bodies, although Williams is stronger and more powerful coming off the corner. Houston could use Mercilus as a 3-4 linebacker or end depending on the situation and with guys like J.J. Watt and Brooks Reed, he'll have time to develop after just one year as a starter in college.
27.) Cincinnati Bengals (F/ Patriots) Kevin Zeitler G Wisconsin (Projected Pick Cordy Glenn)
Needs: DB,G,WR,RB,LB
If the Bengals wanted a guard, I don't know why they didn't just take DeCastro at #21 instead of trading back to take Zeitler who is a solid player, but doesn't have the upside of DeCastro. That being said, the Bengals did acquire picks and were able to grab a smart, physical player who is the kind of mauler the Bengals love to have upfront. Solid pick, but it's hard to be too excited when you could have had one of the top 10 talents in this draft at the same position.
28.) Green Bay Packers (15-1) Nick Perry OLB USC (Projected Pick: Nick Perry)
Needs: OLB,DL,S,OL,CB
Cheeshead Nation may have been more excited about Courtney Upshaw, but when it comes to upside, Perry was a top 10 guy as a pass rusher. With explosive speed and power, Perry flashes the ability take move his 271 pound frame exceedingly well (He ran a 4.58 at the combine. That's unreal). Unfortunately, he'll disappear at times, whether it's conditioning or hustle or both. Even so, Green Bay has the coaches - Kevin Greene and Dom Capers - to maximize his vast talents. Great pick.
29.) Minnesota Vikings (F/ Ravens) Harrison Smith S Notre Dame (Projected Pick: None)
Needs: OL,DB,WR,DT,LB
This was a pick where the Vikings reached, but it's hard to blame them for it. Minnesota's defensive backfield is a shambles and Smith was the second best safety in the draft, even if he's rated as a second rounder. His range isn't great and his impact is more in the box, so he's not a great fit for the Cover 2 defense in Minnesota, but the secondary had to be improved somehow.
30.) San Francisco 49ers (13-3) A.J. Jenkins WR Illinois (Projected Pick:Amini Silatolu)
Needs: CB,OL,S,RB,DL,TE
If Bruce Irvin was a reach then this was a staggering, falling down grab. I guess if you're the 49ers you have Jenkins targeted as a big play slot receiver and you don't care about value. Jenkins had been a rising prospect, but I had him at #99 overall which means I didn't expect him to have his name called until Saturday. I think that tells you what I think of this pick.
31.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (F/ Broncos) Doug Martin RB Boise State (Projected Pick: Trade)
Needs: LB,DB,OL,TE,RB,WR
This pick changed hands twice before the Bucs snatched it up to take the versatile Boise running back. After trading back with Richardson off the board, it's not surprising that Greg Schiano would want a player with Martin's skill set for his offense. Martin can be a poor man's Ray Rice with his versatility and given that Rice played for Schiano at Rutgers, this pick makes a lot of sense.
32.) New York Giants (9-7) David Wilson RB Virginia Tech (Projected Pick: Levonte David)
Needs: OL,CB,LB,RB,WR
New York makes a somewhat surprising pick to end the round with the speedy running back from Virginia Tech. Wilson is actually very similar to Ahmad Bradshaw, down to the fumbling and durability concerns. New York did have a need at running back, but with a versatile offensive lineman like Cordy Glenn or a pass-catching tight end like Coby Fleener still on the board, this seems somewhat strange.
The top 10 players still available heading into tonight:
1.) Courtney Upshaw OLB Alabama (19)
2.) Cordy Glenn OT/G Georgia (21)
3.) Levonte David OLB Nebraska (25)
4.) Jonathan Martin OT Stanford (26)
5.) Devon Still DT Penn State (28)
6.) Coby Fleener TE Stanford (29)
7.) Peter Konz C Wisconsin (30)
8.) Stephen Hill WR Georgia Tech (32)
9.) Jerel Worthy DT Michigan State (33)
10.) Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama (35)
Thursday, April 26, 2012
2012 NFL Mock Draft: 4.0 (Final)
Minnesota has been on the clock for a couple weeks now with the top two picks all but made. The Vikings have tried desperately to trade out of that pick because they aren't sold on Matt Khalil and it's too high to take Morris Claiborne.
This could be one of the most active drafts in recent memory for trades because basically every team from the 3 to 16 wants to trade out.
That means teams unhappy with their slot could reach for players if they can't trade down, as well as teams in the 20's could trade up if their favorite player is falling.
Even in the last few days, there has been some major re-shuffling of the board with the late rising of guys like Chandler Jones and Shea McClellin, coupled with the falling of Quinton Coples and Courtney Upshaw (neither of which I understand).
It's the perfect year for the draft to be on prime time television because there could be high drama with trades and last-second moves.
I will project some trades, but obviously it can be impossible to predict.
1.) Indianapolis Colts (2-14) Andrew Luck QB Stanford (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 1)
Needs:OL,RB,LB,WR,CB,DT
Any discussion about Luck vs. RG3 here is preposterous. Even though we've known Luck was going to be the pick for over a year, people have wanted to debate the merits of each quarterback since the college football season ended. Luck has been compared to John Elway as a prospect. I don't know what else you need to know. Luck has taken a middling college program to two straight BCS Bowl games. In terms of what he was asked to do on the field and his production level, he's one of the most NFL-ready quarterback prospects ever, including Elway. Say what you want about his arm strength, but Luck is everything you could ask for from a franchise quarterback and is one of the few players who can handle walking into the shadow of Peyton Manning.
2.) Washington Redskins (F/ Rams) Robert Griffin III QB Baylor (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 2)
Needs: QB,DL,OL,TE,DB
We've known since January that Griffin III was the likely #2 pick, it was simply a matter of determining who would make that pick. The Redskins gave up an absolute bounty for RG3 and will take the future franchise quarterback. One of the lessons I learned from Cam Newton is that just because a quarterback isn't asked to make tight throws in NFL-sized windows, doesn't mean he can't. To me, RG3 made most of his throws to what would be considered wide-open receivers by NFL standards. On the other hand, his mechanics are solid and he really spins the ball well. Has the same kind of dual-threat weapons Cam does to keep defenses honest, which should open up some of those throwing lanes. This is a boom-or-bust pick, but if Griffin III reaches his potential, then what Washington gave up to get him will look like a steal.
3.) Minnesota Vikings (3-13) Matt Khalil OT USC (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 4)
Needs: OL,DB,WR,DT,LB
I've never seen more subterfuge around the #3 pick before, but maybe it has to do with the fact that everyone knows who is going 1 and 2. Minnesota has made it clear they'd like to trade out of this pick, but unless Tampa or St. Louis wants to leapfrog the Browns to get Trent Richardson (the Jets are also reportedly hot on the former Alabama back) the Vikings are stuck here. In the last few days Morris Claiborne's name has been hot here and Justin Blackmon has re-surfaced as a potential target with some GM's believing that's where Minnesota will go. To me, the Vikings aren't dumb enough (notice I said enough) to show their cards so overtly. Khalil is the smart pick and I expect him to be the pick.
4.) Cleveland Browns (4-12) Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 6)
Needs: WR,OL,S,RB,QB,OLB
While Cleveland reportedly loves Richardson, I'm not sold that Mike Holmgren and the staff are positive Richardson has enough value here to warrant a top pick. This could be a potential landing spot for a team like New York looking to trade up and land Richardson. At #17, the Browns could still get Kendall Wright and they have Atlanta's pick at #22. Richardson is the better player, but Blackmon's value is inflated by the position he plays. Not every team sees Blackmon as a legitimate #1 receiver because of his athletic limitations, but I think those question marks are vastly overstated. Cleveland lacks playmakers and in today's NFL even a solid #2 receiver has a bigger impact than a legitimate #1 running back. I think the Browns know that.
5.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12) Trent Richardson RB Alabama (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 3)
Needs: LB,DB,OL,TE,RB,WR
Tampa would run up to the podium if Trent Richardson is still available at #5. The Bucs staff love him and he apparently is equally excited about playing for the team. Greg Schiano wants to run the football and Richardson is the best running back prospect in the last five years. Talk about a punishing backfield with LeGarrette Blount and Richardson in the backfield and Josh Freeman under center. Those guys eat their Wheaties. Morris Claiborne might be tough to pass on in a division with Brees, Ryan and Newton, but Claiborne is an overrated prospect and I think that's part of why Minnesota has shifted its strategy toward a Blackmon smokescreen. This is the right move and is one I hope, for Tampa's sake, they make.
6.) St. Louis Rams (F/ Redskins)Morris Claiborne CB LSU (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 5)
Needs: WR,DB,OL,OLB,DT
I wouldn't be surprised to see Carolina trade up into this spot if Claiborne falls. St. Louis covets Fletcher Cox, the Mississippi defensive tackle, and could probably get him or Michael Brockers at #9 in that trade. The Panthers desperately need to upgrade their defensive backfield and it wouldn't take much to move up the three spots. I think Claiborne is the pick if he falls, whether it's the Rams or Panthers making the selection. Claiborne's athletic talents are unquestionable, but his instincts aren't outstanding and he wins late in the route, rather than early. If he watches tape and really studies, he can be an excellent corner, but I'm not convinced he can be Champ Bailey. I see him closer to Tramon Williams, someone who can make big plays when they guess right, but burned when they guess wrong.
7.) Philadelphia Eagles (F/ Jaguars) Fletcher Cox DT Mississippi State (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 8)
**Projected Trade**
Needs:OL,LB,DT,S,RB,WR
Jacksonville really wants to move down and Philadelphia really wants to move up to get Fletcher Cox. If the Eagles want the dominated SEC defensive tackle, they'll have to move ahead of Carolina who will almost certainly take him if he's on he board. Jacksonville worked out middle first round defensive ends like Nick Perry and Chandler Jones, which could mean they have one of those players in mind in a potential trade down in the draft. For the Eagles, they basically get a bigger, stronger, younger version of Cullen Jenkins, whom Philly already has on its roster. Cox is the kind of powerful interior force who could improve this defense and take up blockers so those 'Wide 9' ends can get after the quarterback. Philly's pass rush would be scary good.
8.) Miami Dolphins (6-10) Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 18)
Needs: OL,QB,WR,LB,TE,S
Given all of the hype surrounding this pick, the Dolphins now have no choice but to make it. Tannehill was a second round prospect until Matt Barkley and Landry Jones returned to school and now Tannehill will go in the top 10. That just shows you how highly valued a franchise quarterback is in the NFL. I've concerned about the accuracy and mental toughness, but Joe Philbin has had a huge influence on Aaron Rodgers and Mike Sherman was Tannehill's head coach at A&M. There's no better situation for a player to flourish than that. The Dolphins have some other needs and probably could have gotten by with David Gerrard/Matt Moore for one more year, but if this is the player the Dolphins feel they have to draft, then it doesn't matter where they're picking, Tannehill has to be drafted.
9.) Carolina Panthers (6-10) Luke Kuechley MLB Boston College (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 10)
Needs: CB,WR,S,LB, DL
This pick comes to three players: Kuechley, Stephon Gilmore and Michael Brockers. A fourth option would be a trade with a team like Dallas who wants to snag Mark Barron ahead of the Buffalo Bills who apparently have significant interest. Of the three players, Kuechley makes both the passing and rushing defense better, where as Gilmore and Brockers only help in one area. He's the best player of that group and would be a terrific leader on that defense. Carolina was at its best with that group of outstanding linebackers in the mid 90's and haven't had impact players at the position since. Quinton Coples could be a sleeper here and given the geographic connection, might be my pick if I had to make it.
10.) Buffalo Bills (6-10) Stephon Gilmore CB South Carolina (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 20)
Needs: OL,WR,LB,DB,TE
Buffalo will be burning the phone lines trying to get Dallas to trade into this spot to snag Mark Barron before the Chiefs can. I wouldn't be at all surprised though if the Bills just went ahead and took Barron if the Cowboys couldn't offer a quality package. Buffalo has paid close attention to the first round corners in this draft and either Dre Kirkpatrick or Stephon Gilmore could be a consideration here. When you play New England twice a year, you need quality defensive backs and Gilmore has been a late riser in this draft. His best fit is in a zone coverage system where he can use his instincts and intelligence to read receivers and break on the ball. Don't be surprised to see Buffalo trade up if Matt Khalil starts to fall either.
11.) Kansas City Chiefs (7-9) Mark Barron S Alabama (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 17)
Needs: WR,TE,OL,NT,LB
Michael Floyd or David DeCastro make a lot of sense here as well, but the Chiefs are apparently very much in love with Barron's skills and safety is a huge position of need with Eric Berry coming off a serious knee injury. Barron is a smart, physical player with great intensity and leadership skills. New coach Romeo Crennell may immediately see Lawyer Milloy when he sees Barron play. K.C. is rumored to be extremely interested in Dont'a Hightower as well, but Barron is the better value here. If they truly covet Hightower, there's no reason they couldn't trade down with Dallas and take the Alabama linebacker three spots later.
12.) Seattle Seahawks (7-9) Quinton Coples DL North Carolina (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 7)
Needs: OL,LB,CB,TE,WR
Take your pick of defensive lineman here. Rumors of Seattle's interest in Syracuse's Chandler Jones are rampant, but Coples has better versatility, able to play tackle or end for the Seahawks. Coples reminds me a lot of Justin Tuck with his pass rush skills from any position along the defensive line. With Seattle's needs at linebacker, Jones or South Carolina's Melvin Ingram could be considered in that hybird role Pete Carrol loves to use. Coples has more potential than either of those players however, and even though Coples is a potential bust, his 'boom' is the greatest of any player left on the board.
13.) Arizona Cardinals (8-8) Riley Reiff OT Iowa (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 11)
Needs: OL,OLB,WR,DB,RB
My guess is that when the draft process starter, the Cardinals thought they had no chance of landing Riley Reiff, the second best offensive tackle prospect in the draft. At one point, there was talk Tampa might take the former Iowa offensive lineman at #5. Melvin Ingram will be tempting and I think David DeCastro is a better offensive line prospect overall, but Reiff plays a position where it's harder to find top-line talent. His physical style is something this Cardinal team lacks and he'd be an asset to Kevin Kolb's development in the passing game. Michael Floyd would be extremely temping and the Cards are said to be extremely interested in taking him. I wouldn't be shocked if they did, but Reiff makes much more sense and has better value here.
14.) Dallas Cowboys (8-8) Michael Brockers DT LSU (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 15)
Needs: OL,DL,DB,WR,TE
Dallas will have to trade up if they want Barron. If they can't swing a trade, the pick comes down to David DeCastro, Michael Brockers or Dre Kirkpatrick. I have DeCastro as the highest rated prospect and Kirkpatrick plays the highest impact position, but my feeling is Dallas may not view Kirkpatrick as a Day 1 starter, while Brockers is. As a 5 technique 3-4 end, Brockers has a Richard Seymour ceiling. In two or three years, he could be one of the 10 best defensive lineman in the game because his physical skills in terms of his ability to manipulate blockers and hold the point of attack are elite. Signing Brandon Carr from Kansas City means the need for Kirkpatrick may have been blunted. Brockers is a much better prospect than Marcus Spears, a former LSU tackle who the Cowboys took in the first round several years ago.
15.) Jacksonville Jaguars (F/ Eagles) Melvin Ingram DE/DT South Carolina (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 12)
Needs: WR,DE,OL,DB,RB
I think the Jags are fully willing to take Chandler Jones or Nick Perry if they can trade down to the middle of the first. In this case though, Ingram falls and I can't see the Jaguars passing. While I'm not as high on Ingram as others, his versatility and athleticism are outstanding and he can be effective as an end, tackle, or even a linebacker at times. I'm concerned about his size and short arms at the next level, particularly in a 4-3 defense, but he played in a big-time conference in college and was one of the best defensive players in football. I think this is just right for him and for a risk-averse franchise where character is important, Ingram is exactly what the Jags are looking for.
16.) New York Jets (8-8) Michael Floyd WR Notre Dame (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 13)
Needs: OLB,OL,WR,DL,RB
Jet fans would love to see Melvin Ingram fall to them here, but it seems unlikely. Chandler Jones or Nick Perry would make sense, as would DeCastro, but Floyd is the big name with the big impact. You bring in Tim Tebow to make headlines and add Michael Floyd to help your offense score points. Plus, with the range Floyd has, those Tebow underthrows and Sanchez overthrows might actually have a chance of being completed. New York is extremely interested in trading up to get Trent Richardson and has even contacted Richardson about potentially doing so. They would have to give up quite a big to get him and I'm not sure they'll be willing to offer enough to get a deal done.
17.) Bengals (F/ Oakland) Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 14)
Needs: DB,G,WR,RB,LB
This is a case where arguably the Bengals biggest need position is the same as the highest rated player on the board, but you'd understand if they passed. David DeCastro is a perfect fit for the Bengals who desperately need help along the interior, but Dre Kirkpatrick plays a greater impact position. His physical play is exactly what the Bengals want from their corners and with depth concerns at the position, Kirkpatrick would see plenty of time on the field as a rookie. I wouldn't be surprised though, if DeCastro is the pick given his extremely high value here. There's no chance Kirkpatrick falls to the Bengals at #21, but it's certainly possible that a player like Cordy Glenn, who can play guard or tackle, is available. In terms of the trade-off, you'd rather have Kirkpatrick and Glenn than DeCastro and then reaching for a lower tier corner.
18.) San Diego Chargers (8-8) David DeCastro G Stanford (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 9)
Needs: DL,LB,OL,DB,WR
San Diego could end up deciding between the second-best lineman in the draft and whomever they think is the best pass rusher left. San Diego isn't going to force it here, and I think they'll take DeCastro who could step in right away as a starter on an offensive line that has really struggled lately. DeCastro isn't massive, but the Chargers aren't going to be a power running team anyway, particularly with some of the fire power San Diego amassed in the offseason. Particularly given that the best pass rushers available at this point project better in a 4-3 defense, I'd expect if a player like DeCastro falls, he'll be a welcome site for San Diego.
19.) Chicago Bears (8-8) Whitney Mercilus DE Illinois (Pos. Rank: 5, Overall Rank: 24)
Needs: OL,CB,DE,TE,LB
For some reason, Chicago has decided its top need was at defensive end, even though their offensive line was a train wreck last year and they play in a division with Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson et al., so a defensive back would be nice here. On the other hand, the Bears can feel the window of this defense closing, meaning they'd like to upgrade it with an influx of young talent. I'm fine with Chandler Jones or Andre Branch here as well, although I think Courtney Upshaw is the best pass rusher left on the board. Mercilus was a one-year wonder at Illinois, but had one of the most productive seasons in college football history for a defensive end and with a chance to learn at the feet of Julius Peppers, could turn out to be a monster in the NFL.
20.) Tennessee Titans (9-7) Dontari Poe DT Memphis (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 16)
Needs: WR,CB,DL,TE,OL
A lot of mocks have the Titans going with Cordy Glenn or an end like Nick Perry, but Poe makes a ton of sense for a number of reasons. The first is that the Titans pass rush isn't very good and a big body like Poe would eat up space in the middle, freeing up defenders around him. Second, Poe has an extremely high ceiling despite underwhelming product at Memphis. I don't see Glenn much differently than I see Poe: big, strong, underachieving. Poe, however, is a much rarer player with his speed and quickness inside. In terms of raw ability, Poe has as many physical tools as you'll find in this draft. To me, Nick Perry or Courtney Upshaw make more sense than Glenn, but that doesn't mean Tennessee won't take him (I've been wrong before).
21.) Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) Cordy Glenn G/T Georgia (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 21)
Needs: DB,G,WR,RB,LB
This is the scenario I described above: Cincinnati takes care of its two biggest needs while maximizing the value of their picks. The Begnals love massive lineman and Glenn fits the bill at 6-5 and nearly 350 pounds. His lack of lateral quickness precludes him from being anything but a right tackle at the next level and he seems better suited to play guard. Line him up next to Andre Smith and suddenly you an incredibly strong right side of your offensive line. Kendall Wright makes sense here as well and teams are apparently lining up to take the former Baylor Bear wide receiver. I can see the Bengals biting if Glenn is off the board here.
22.) Cleveland Browns (F/ Atlanta) Jonathan Martin OT Stanford (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 26)
Needs: WR,OL,S,RB,QB,OLB
Cleveland is known to be extremely high on Brandon Weeden to the point they'd consider taking him at #22. There's also scuttlebutt that they'll use their high second round pick to trade back into the first round and assure themselves a chance to draft the Oklahoma State quarterback. Doug Martin has been a popular name in mock drafts as well with a late push into first round consideration. I think offensive line is much more likely, particularly with the drop-off at tackle after the first round. If the Browns really want a running back, there isn't a substantial difference between the second through fifth ranked running backs in this class. If they like Weeden enough to trade back into the first, then draft Martin to protect him and figure out how to snag him later.
23.) Detroit Lions (10-6) Dont'a Hightower ILB Alabama (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 23)
Needs: DB,LB,RB,WR,OL
I've seen enough permutations of this pick to believe the Lions are simply sitting back and waiting for the right player to come to them. If they're concerned about signing Cliff Avril to a long-term deal, Courtney Upshaw and Nick Perry immediately become considerations. To me though, Hightower's power and tenacity are exactly what head coach Jim Schwartz is looking for from his middle linebacker. A dominating, downhill linebacker, Hightower also has some pass rush ability and could mitigate some of the concerns left from losing Avril. I've been on Hightower since since sophomore season and he's one of my favorite players in this draft.
24.) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) Courtney Upshaw LB Alabama (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 19)
Needs: OL,DL,LB,RB,DB
To me, this is exactly the kind of pick I'd expect the Steelers to make. We know they have needs along the offensive and defensive lines, but the value isn't there with this pick. Some scouts thought Upshaw could play inside in a 3-4 defense coming into the season and after a sub-par postseason, there are some questions as to whether or not Upshaw is athletic enough to do that. I don't think it matters to Pittsburgh who could use Upshaw all over the field. The former Crimson Tide rush end was perhaps the most dominating defensive player in the best conference in football last year and that has to count for something. He has more versatility than people believe and no one is better as drafting the best player available than the Pittsburgh Steelers.
25.) Denver Broncos (8-8) Doug Martin RB Boise State (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 32)
Needs: WR,DB,DT,TE,RB
With needs at receiver, defensive line and defensive back, Martin is a little bit of a luxury pick here. If I were John Elway and John Fox, I'd be taking Kendall Wright, but because Martin has great versatility as a receiver out of the backfield and as a pass blocker, he makes sense here for Denver. Peyton Manning was at his best when he had Edgerrin James to pick up blitzers and to use out of the backfield. Coby Fleener and Devon Still could be temping here as well, but Martin sounds like the direction Denver is leaning.
26.) Houston Texans (10-6) Kendall Wright WR Baylor (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 32)
Needs: S,WR,OL,DE,QB
Best possible case scenario for the Texans. Wright is an ideal fit alongside Andre Johnson in this offense and will be used extensively in play-action to get over the top and take the top off of defenses. Wright's disappointing combine workouts were a red flag, but his stock is rising after impressive pro day workouts. Coby Fleener could be a good pick here as well and the Texans can't go wrong. If they want a first round pass catcher, they'll have a chance to get one here. Stephen Hill would even have value here if Wright comes off the board sooner.
27.)New England Patriots (F/ New Orleans) Chandler Jones DE Syracuse (Pos. Rank: 5, Overall Rank: 34)
Needs:DE,DB,OL,RB,LB
The best defensive lineman on the board will be picked here. Some mocks have Syracuse's Chandler Jones as high as #12, but I tend to be extremely skeptical of a guy who is a second round pick until three days before the draft and then suddenly he's a top 15 pick. That being said, Jones has outstanding pass rush potential and is everything you could want from a defensive end. He's actually similar to the Patriots now-departed defensive end Andre Carter in the way he's built, with long, lean arms. His quickness off the edge is his biggest asset and he may struggle a little setting the edge in the NFL. Mike Mayock believes Jones could be the best defensive player in this draft. That would be quite something if the Patriots could get him at #27.
28.) Green Bay Packers (15-1) Nick Perry OLB USC (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 22)
Needs: OLB,DL,S,OL,CB
Southern Cal' has been good to Green Bay when it comes to picking outside linebackers and Perry is not just the best pass rusher on the board left, he's the best overall player. We know Ted Thompson will go with best available over biggest need, but he has a chance to get both with this pick. Perry is a freak athlete, a 271 pound former defensive end who runs a 4.64 40. Green Bay may ask him to slim down a little to play outside since Perry put on an extra 10 pounds of muscle to show he can play the 4-3 end at the next level. He'll have to work on his coverage skills, but the average match up with a rush linebacker isn't going to end well for the defense anyway. Getting a player who lead the Pac-12 in sacks is the impact Green Bay needs, even if he's a liability in coverage.
29.) Baltimore Ravens (12-4) Stephen Hill WR Georgia Tech (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 31)
Needs: OL,OLB,DB,RB,WR
Torrey Smith was outstanding as Baltimore's deep threat last season, but the Ravens still aren't very explosive outside of Smith's big play ability. Hill wowed scouts at the combine with a blistering 40 yard time, but his limited production and polish coming out of Georgia Tech's option offense is worrisome. With another year of development and a full offseason for Smith, the Ravens could rely on Smith to do more than just run deep, while allowing Hill to step into that role. Suddenly, the Ravens would have one of the fastest and most explosive wide receiving duos in the league.
30.) San Francisco 49ers (13-3) Amini Silatolu G Midwestern State (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 53)
Needs: CB,OL,S,RB,DL,TE
Some scouts see shades of Larry Allen when they watch Silatolu play. One of the things about small school players is you can't be sure they're great because they dominate, but you can be sure they stink if they don't. Silatolu falls into the former category and was a monster at Midwestern State, the kind of physical domination that made you wonder how he didn't play legitimate Division 1 football. So that begs the question, why didn't he? He is certainly a bigger risk at the position than Wisconsin's Kevin Zeitler, but teams see the talent and physical ability and the potential is overwhelmingly apparent. A boom-or-bust prospect who has made his way in the first round. If I'm in the San Francisco war room, I can make a pick like this because the team has so few holes. If it works, it's outstanding, if it doesn't, you're still a favorite in the NFC.
31.) Cleveland Browns (F/ New England) Brandon Weeden QB Oklahoma State (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 45)
**Project Trade**
Needs: WR,OL,S,RB,QB,OLB
More than likely, the Patriots will be happy to trade out of this pick for a team interested in Brandon Weeden. I expect the Browns are the most likely to try and get back into the first to nab him. Fortunately, it may not take too much to trade up the six spots to make sure they get the quarterback they're looking for. If Weeden were 22, I think there's no question he'd considered a first round quarterback and in some ways his age (28) is a plus because he can walk into a locker room and command respect immediately. Weeden is NFL-ready and if you pair him with his former receiver in this offense, they don't have to spend a minute developing chemistry. The value isn't great here, but I think for the Browns it makes sense if they've already taken Blackmon.
32.) New York Giants (9-7) Levonte David LB Nebraska
Needs: OL,CB,LB,RB,WR
Coby Fleener will get a long look here to be sure, especially given the last team the Giants played has the best tight end int he game. David, though, plays a greater position of need and is a better value at this point. The former Cornhusker is one of the most underrated players in the draft and is an absolute stud playmaker at the position. If he weighed 15 more pounds, he'd be a top 20 pick in my opinion, but his instincts are terrific and he's the kind of athletic linebacker the Giants have been trying to find.
Round 2
33.) St. Louis Rams (2-14) Coby Fleener TE Stanford
Needs: WR,DB,OL,OLB,DT
St. Louis breaks Indy's heart by taking the best tight end in the draft who happens to be Andrew Luck's former teammate
34.) Indianapolis Colts (2-14) Devon Still DT Penn State
Needs:OL,RB,LB,WR,CB,DT
Colts have to improve 29th ranked rush defense from last season with one of the best run defenders in the draft.
35.) Minnesota Vikings (3-13) Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama
Needs: OL,DB,WR,DT,LB
This is why you take Khalil at #3: you can still get a first round caliber corner here. You can't get the same value at tackle.
36.)New England Patriots (F/ Cleveland) Jerel Worthy DT Michigan State
**Projected Trade**
Needs:DE,DB,OL,RB,LB
Re-signing Dan Koppen allows the Pats to nab the powerful interior rusher from Michigan State to boost the defensive front even further.
37.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12) Peter Konz C Wisconsin
Needs: LB,DB,OL,TE,RB,WR
Without a viable center on the roster, Tampa finds the cornerstone center to lead their offense which now centers around Trent Richardson.
38.) Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11) David Wilson RB Virginia Tech
Needs: WR,DE,OL,DB,RB
Alshon Jeffery is too big a risk to Jags, so Wilson gives Jacksonville terrific 1-2 punch at running back.
39.) St. Louis Rams (2-14) Alshon Jeffery WR South Carolina
Needs: WR,DB,OL,OLB,DT
Jeff Fisher not afraid to take most talented player on the board at a position of need, despite red flags. Jeffery will be terrific with a legitimate quarterback.
40.) Carolina Panthers (6-10) Brandon Boykin CB Georgia
Needs: CB,WR,S,LB, DL
Best defensive back on the board would help improve Carolina's abysmal passing defense, plus could give Steve Smith a break in the return game.
41.) Buffalo Bills (6-10) Kevin Zeitler G Wisconsin
Needs: OL,WR,LB,DB,TE
Biggest need gets addressed with polished, physical guard from Wisconsin.
42.) Miami Dolphins (6-10) Rueben Randle WR LSU
Needs: OL,QB,WR,LB,TE,S
If you're going to pick Tannehill, you better get someone for him to throw to. Raw, talented Randle will need time to develop, but has big-time upside.
43.) Seattle Seahawks (7-9) Mike Adams OT Ohio State
Needs: OL,LB,CB,TE,WR
Adams might be second best left tackle prospect in the draft and Seattle needs serious help along the offensive line.
44.) Kansas City Chiefs (7-9) Dwayne Allen TE Clemson
Needs: WR,TE,OL,NT,LB
Chiefs offense has limited weapons and Allen would help in both phases of the offense. Good value here.
45.) Dallas Cowboys (8-8) Trumaine Johnson CB Montana
Needs: OL,DL,DB,WR,TE
Versatile FBS defensive back would be a major upgrade for this struggling Dallas defense.
46.) Philadelphia Eagles (8-8) Lamer Miller RB Miami (Fla.)
Needs:OL,LB,DT,S,RB,WR
Philly gets a back to lighten the burden for LeSean McCoy and provide much-needed depth at the position.
47.) New York Jets (8-8) Andre Branch OLB/DE Clemson
Needs: OLB,OL,WR,DL,RB
Major pass rush upgrade for the Jets who failed to generate pressure last year without blitzing.
48.) New England Patriots (F/ Oakland) Harrison Smith S Notre Dame
Needs:DE,DB,OL,RB,LB Physical box safety heading to New England, a team who was pulling guys off the street to play in the secondary last year.
49.) San Diego Chargers (8-8) Zach Brown LB North Carolina
Needs: DL,LB,OL,DB,WR
Not an ideal fit for the Chargers, but Brown is lightening fast and could learn from underrated rusher Antwan Barnes.
50.) Chicago Bears (8-8) Bobbie Massie OT Mississippi
Needs: OL,CB,DE,TE,LB
Offensive line remains a problem for the Bears and if Gabe Carimi gets healthy, Massie will have some time to develop.
51.) Jacksonville Jaguars (F/ Philadelphia) Brandon Thompson DT Clemson
**Projected Trade**
Needs: WR,DE,OL,DB,RB
Jags get a defensive line upgrade once considered to be a first round talent as part of Eagles trade for Fletcher Cox.
52.) Tennessee Titans (9-7) Shea McClellin DE Boise State
Needs: WR,CB,DL,TE,OL
Tennessee loves to get winners and McClellin is a relentless edge rusher with an excellent college background.
53.) Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) Chris Polk RB Washington
Needs: DB,G,WR,RB,LB
Cinci gets solid value with the versatile Polk to go with the Bengals' potent, young offensive core.
54.) Detroit Lions (10-6) Mitchell Schwartz OT California
Needs: DB,LB,RB,WR,OL
Lions need to do a better job of opening holes in the run game and protecting Matthew Stafford, so getting the best available offensive lineman should help do that.
55.) Atlanta Falcons (10-6) Vinny Curry DE Marshall
Needs: OL,DB,DE,WR,TE
Falcons desperately need a pass rusher to generate pressure opposite John Abraham and Curry is a good fit for 4-3 scheme.
56.) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) Kendall Reyes DT Connecticut
Needs: OL,DL,LB,RB,DB
It would be a gift if a fringe first round talent like Reyes fell all the way to Steelers here.
57.) Denver Broncos (8-8) Kirk Cousins QB Michigan State
Needs: WR,DB,DT,TE,RB
Wouldn't be popular with Peyton Manning, but Broncos get QB of the future who (like Tebow) is proven winner.
58.) Houston Texans (10-6) Bobby Wagner ILB Utah State
Needs: S,WR,OL,DE,QB
Athletic replacement for departed Demeco Ryans and Houston continues to build a dominating defense.
59.) Green Bay Packers (15-1) Jared Crick DL Nebraska
Needs: OLB,DL,S,OL,CB
Packers get defensive line upgrade they desperate need to pair with first round stud Nick Perry.
60.) Baltimore Ravens (12-4) Josh Robinson CB Central Florida
Needs: OL,OLB,DB,RB,WR
Speedy corner would be terrific nickelback for Ravens in a division full of terrific young receivers.
61.) San Francisco 49ers (13-3) Jamell Flemming CB Oklahoma
Needs: CB,OL,S,RB,DL,TE
Thin 49ers secondary gets upgrade with rising Oklahoma corner who is excellent in man coverage.
62.) New England Patriots (13-3)Mohamed Sanu WR Rutgers
Needs:DE,DB,OL,RB,LBHighly-productive college receiver would give Patriots a young weapon outside to pair with their terrific tandem of tight ends.
63.) New York Giants (9-7) Brian Quick WR Appalachian State
Needs: OL,CB,LB,RB,WR
Raw receiver would have time to develop for Giants, could eventually be a terrific trio with Cruz and Nicks.
Round 3
64.)Indianapolis Colts - Orson Charles TE Georgia
65.) St. Louis Rams - Kelechi Osemele OL Iowa State
66.) Minnesota Vikings - Ronnell Lewis OLB/DE Oklahoma
67. Cleveland Browns - Bruce Irvin OLB West Virginia
68.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Chase Minnifield CB Virginia
69.) Washington Redskins - Alameda Ta'amu NT Washington
70.) Jacksonville Jaguars - Joe Adams WR Arkansas
71.) Buffalo Bills - Zebrie Sanders OT Florida State
72.) Miami Dolphins - LaMichael James RB Oregon
73.) Dolphins F/ Chicago - Markelle Martin S Oklahoma State
74.) Kansas City Chiefs - Brock Osweiler QB Arizona State
75.) Seattle Seahawks - Jayron Hosley CB Virginia Tech
76.) Texans F/ Philadelphia - Jeff Allen OL Illinois
77.) New York Jets - Casey Heyward CB Vanderbilt
78.) San Diego Chargers - Jonathan Massoquoi OLB Troy
79.) Chicago Bears - Chris Givens WR Wake Forest
80.) Arizona Cardinals - Nick Toon WR Wisconsin
81.) Dallas Cowboys - Marvin Jones WR California
82.) Tennessee Titans - Brandon Brooks G Miami (OH)
83.) Cincinnati Bengals - Cameron Johnson DE Virginia
84.) Atlanta Falcons - Mike Martin DT Michigan
85.) Detroit Lions - Mychal Kendricks LB California
86.) Pittsburgh Steelers - Tyronne Crawford DE Boise State
87.) Denver Broncos - Dwight Bentley CB LA-Lafeyette
88.) Eagles F/ Houson - George Iloka S Boise State
89.) New Orleans Saints - Brandon Washington G Miami (Fla.)
90.) Green Bay Packers - Isaiah Pead RB Cincinnati
91.) Baltimore Ravens - Ben Jones C Georgia
92.) San Francisco 49ers - Trevor Guyton DL California
93.) New England Patriots - Matt McCants OT UAB
94.) New York Giants - Ledarius Green TE LA-Lafeyette
95.) Oakland Raiders (Comp. Pick) - Nigel Bradham LB Florida State
This could be one of the most active drafts in recent memory for trades because basically every team from the 3 to 16 wants to trade out.
That means teams unhappy with their slot could reach for players if they can't trade down, as well as teams in the 20's could trade up if their favorite player is falling.
Even in the last few days, there has been some major re-shuffling of the board with the late rising of guys like Chandler Jones and Shea McClellin, coupled with the falling of Quinton Coples and Courtney Upshaw (neither of which I understand).
It's the perfect year for the draft to be on prime time television because there could be high drama with trades and last-second moves.
I will project some trades, but obviously it can be impossible to predict.
1.) Indianapolis Colts (2-14) Andrew Luck QB Stanford (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 1)
Needs:OL,RB,LB,WR,CB,DT
Any discussion about Luck vs. RG3 here is preposterous. Even though we've known Luck was going to be the pick for over a year, people have wanted to debate the merits of each quarterback since the college football season ended. Luck has been compared to John Elway as a prospect. I don't know what else you need to know. Luck has taken a middling college program to two straight BCS Bowl games. In terms of what he was asked to do on the field and his production level, he's one of the most NFL-ready quarterback prospects ever, including Elway. Say what you want about his arm strength, but Luck is everything you could ask for from a franchise quarterback and is one of the few players who can handle walking into the shadow of Peyton Manning.
2.) Washington Redskins (F/ Rams) Robert Griffin III QB Baylor (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 2)
Needs: QB,DL,OL,TE,DB
We've known since January that Griffin III was the likely #2 pick, it was simply a matter of determining who would make that pick. The Redskins gave up an absolute bounty for RG3 and will take the future franchise quarterback. One of the lessons I learned from Cam Newton is that just because a quarterback isn't asked to make tight throws in NFL-sized windows, doesn't mean he can't. To me, RG3 made most of his throws to what would be considered wide-open receivers by NFL standards. On the other hand, his mechanics are solid and he really spins the ball well. Has the same kind of dual-threat weapons Cam does to keep defenses honest, which should open up some of those throwing lanes. This is a boom-or-bust pick, but if Griffin III reaches his potential, then what Washington gave up to get him will look like a steal.
3.) Minnesota Vikings (3-13) Matt Khalil OT USC (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 4)
Needs: OL,DB,WR,DT,LB
I've never seen more subterfuge around the #3 pick before, but maybe it has to do with the fact that everyone knows who is going 1 and 2. Minnesota has made it clear they'd like to trade out of this pick, but unless Tampa or St. Louis wants to leapfrog the Browns to get Trent Richardson (the Jets are also reportedly hot on the former Alabama back) the Vikings are stuck here. In the last few days Morris Claiborne's name has been hot here and Justin Blackmon has re-surfaced as a potential target with some GM's believing that's where Minnesota will go. To me, the Vikings aren't dumb enough (notice I said enough) to show their cards so overtly. Khalil is the smart pick and I expect him to be the pick.
4.) Cleveland Browns (4-12) Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 6)
Needs: WR,OL,S,RB,QB,OLB
While Cleveland reportedly loves Richardson, I'm not sold that Mike Holmgren and the staff are positive Richardson has enough value here to warrant a top pick. This could be a potential landing spot for a team like New York looking to trade up and land Richardson. At #17, the Browns could still get Kendall Wright and they have Atlanta's pick at #22. Richardson is the better player, but Blackmon's value is inflated by the position he plays. Not every team sees Blackmon as a legitimate #1 receiver because of his athletic limitations, but I think those question marks are vastly overstated. Cleveland lacks playmakers and in today's NFL even a solid #2 receiver has a bigger impact than a legitimate #1 running back. I think the Browns know that.
5.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12) Trent Richardson RB Alabama (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 3)
Needs: LB,DB,OL,TE,RB,WR
Tampa would run up to the podium if Trent Richardson is still available at #5. The Bucs staff love him and he apparently is equally excited about playing for the team. Greg Schiano wants to run the football and Richardson is the best running back prospect in the last five years. Talk about a punishing backfield with LeGarrette Blount and Richardson in the backfield and Josh Freeman under center. Those guys eat their Wheaties. Morris Claiborne might be tough to pass on in a division with Brees, Ryan and Newton, but Claiborne is an overrated prospect and I think that's part of why Minnesota has shifted its strategy toward a Blackmon smokescreen. This is the right move and is one I hope, for Tampa's sake, they make.
6.) St. Louis Rams (F/ Redskins)Morris Claiborne CB LSU (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 5)
Needs: WR,DB,OL,OLB,DT
I wouldn't be surprised to see Carolina trade up into this spot if Claiborne falls. St. Louis covets Fletcher Cox, the Mississippi defensive tackle, and could probably get him or Michael Brockers at #9 in that trade. The Panthers desperately need to upgrade their defensive backfield and it wouldn't take much to move up the three spots. I think Claiborne is the pick if he falls, whether it's the Rams or Panthers making the selection. Claiborne's athletic talents are unquestionable, but his instincts aren't outstanding and he wins late in the route, rather than early. If he watches tape and really studies, he can be an excellent corner, but I'm not convinced he can be Champ Bailey. I see him closer to Tramon Williams, someone who can make big plays when they guess right, but burned when they guess wrong.
7.) Philadelphia Eagles (F/ Jaguars) Fletcher Cox DT Mississippi State (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 8)
**Projected Trade**
Needs:OL,LB,DT,S,RB,WR
Jacksonville really wants to move down and Philadelphia really wants to move up to get Fletcher Cox. If the Eagles want the dominated SEC defensive tackle, they'll have to move ahead of Carolina who will almost certainly take him if he's on he board. Jacksonville worked out middle first round defensive ends like Nick Perry and Chandler Jones, which could mean they have one of those players in mind in a potential trade down in the draft. For the Eagles, they basically get a bigger, stronger, younger version of Cullen Jenkins, whom Philly already has on its roster. Cox is the kind of powerful interior force who could improve this defense and take up blockers so those 'Wide 9' ends can get after the quarterback. Philly's pass rush would be scary good.
8.) Miami Dolphins (6-10) Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 18)
Needs: OL,QB,WR,LB,TE,S
Given all of the hype surrounding this pick, the Dolphins now have no choice but to make it. Tannehill was a second round prospect until Matt Barkley and Landry Jones returned to school and now Tannehill will go in the top 10. That just shows you how highly valued a franchise quarterback is in the NFL. I've concerned about the accuracy and mental toughness, but Joe Philbin has had a huge influence on Aaron Rodgers and Mike Sherman was Tannehill's head coach at A&M. There's no better situation for a player to flourish than that. The Dolphins have some other needs and probably could have gotten by with David Gerrard/Matt Moore for one more year, but if this is the player the Dolphins feel they have to draft, then it doesn't matter where they're picking, Tannehill has to be drafted.
9.) Carolina Panthers (6-10) Luke Kuechley MLB Boston College (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 10)
Needs: CB,WR,S,LB, DL
This pick comes to three players: Kuechley, Stephon Gilmore and Michael Brockers. A fourth option would be a trade with a team like Dallas who wants to snag Mark Barron ahead of the Buffalo Bills who apparently have significant interest. Of the three players, Kuechley makes both the passing and rushing defense better, where as Gilmore and Brockers only help in one area. He's the best player of that group and would be a terrific leader on that defense. Carolina was at its best with that group of outstanding linebackers in the mid 90's and haven't had impact players at the position since. Quinton Coples could be a sleeper here and given the geographic connection, might be my pick if I had to make it.
10.) Buffalo Bills (6-10) Stephon Gilmore CB South Carolina (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 20)
Needs: OL,WR,LB,DB,TE
Buffalo will be burning the phone lines trying to get Dallas to trade into this spot to snag Mark Barron before the Chiefs can. I wouldn't be at all surprised though if the Bills just went ahead and took Barron if the Cowboys couldn't offer a quality package. Buffalo has paid close attention to the first round corners in this draft and either Dre Kirkpatrick or Stephon Gilmore could be a consideration here. When you play New England twice a year, you need quality defensive backs and Gilmore has been a late riser in this draft. His best fit is in a zone coverage system where he can use his instincts and intelligence to read receivers and break on the ball. Don't be surprised to see Buffalo trade up if Matt Khalil starts to fall either.
11.) Kansas City Chiefs (7-9) Mark Barron S Alabama (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 17)
Needs: WR,TE,OL,NT,LB
Michael Floyd or David DeCastro make a lot of sense here as well, but the Chiefs are apparently very much in love with Barron's skills and safety is a huge position of need with Eric Berry coming off a serious knee injury. Barron is a smart, physical player with great intensity and leadership skills. New coach Romeo Crennell may immediately see Lawyer Milloy when he sees Barron play. K.C. is rumored to be extremely interested in Dont'a Hightower as well, but Barron is the better value here. If they truly covet Hightower, there's no reason they couldn't trade down with Dallas and take the Alabama linebacker three spots later.
12.) Seattle Seahawks (7-9) Quinton Coples DL North Carolina (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 7)
Needs: OL,LB,CB,TE,WR
Take your pick of defensive lineman here. Rumors of Seattle's interest in Syracuse's Chandler Jones are rampant, but Coples has better versatility, able to play tackle or end for the Seahawks. Coples reminds me a lot of Justin Tuck with his pass rush skills from any position along the defensive line. With Seattle's needs at linebacker, Jones or South Carolina's Melvin Ingram could be considered in that hybird role Pete Carrol loves to use. Coples has more potential than either of those players however, and even though Coples is a potential bust, his 'boom' is the greatest of any player left on the board.
13.) Arizona Cardinals (8-8) Riley Reiff OT Iowa (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 11)
Needs: OL,OLB,WR,DB,RB
My guess is that when the draft process starter, the Cardinals thought they had no chance of landing Riley Reiff, the second best offensive tackle prospect in the draft. At one point, there was talk Tampa might take the former Iowa offensive lineman at #5. Melvin Ingram will be tempting and I think David DeCastro is a better offensive line prospect overall, but Reiff plays a position where it's harder to find top-line talent. His physical style is something this Cardinal team lacks and he'd be an asset to Kevin Kolb's development in the passing game. Michael Floyd would be extremely temping and the Cards are said to be extremely interested in taking him. I wouldn't be shocked if they did, but Reiff makes much more sense and has better value here.
14.) Dallas Cowboys (8-8) Michael Brockers DT LSU (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 15)
Needs: OL,DL,DB,WR,TE
Dallas will have to trade up if they want Barron. If they can't swing a trade, the pick comes down to David DeCastro, Michael Brockers or Dre Kirkpatrick. I have DeCastro as the highest rated prospect and Kirkpatrick plays the highest impact position, but my feeling is Dallas may not view Kirkpatrick as a Day 1 starter, while Brockers is. As a 5 technique 3-4 end, Brockers has a Richard Seymour ceiling. In two or three years, he could be one of the 10 best defensive lineman in the game because his physical skills in terms of his ability to manipulate blockers and hold the point of attack are elite. Signing Brandon Carr from Kansas City means the need for Kirkpatrick may have been blunted. Brockers is a much better prospect than Marcus Spears, a former LSU tackle who the Cowboys took in the first round several years ago.
15.) Jacksonville Jaguars (F/ Eagles) Melvin Ingram DE/DT South Carolina (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 12)
Needs: WR,DE,OL,DB,RB
I think the Jags are fully willing to take Chandler Jones or Nick Perry if they can trade down to the middle of the first. In this case though, Ingram falls and I can't see the Jaguars passing. While I'm not as high on Ingram as others, his versatility and athleticism are outstanding and he can be effective as an end, tackle, or even a linebacker at times. I'm concerned about his size and short arms at the next level, particularly in a 4-3 defense, but he played in a big-time conference in college and was one of the best defensive players in football. I think this is just right for him and for a risk-averse franchise where character is important, Ingram is exactly what the Jags are looking for.
16.) New York Jets (8-8) Michael Floyd WR Notre Dame (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 13)
Needs: OLB,OL,WR,DL,RB
Jet fans would love to see Melvin Ingram fall to them here, but it seems unlikely. Chandler Jones or Nick Perry would make sense, as would DeCastro, but Floyd is the big name with the big impact. You bring in Tim Tebow to make headlines and add Michael Floyd to help your offense score points. Plus, with the range Floyd has, those Tebow underthrows and Sanchez overthrows might actually have a chance of being completed. New York is extremely interested in trading up to get Trent Richardson and has even contacted Richardson about potentially doing so. They would have to give up quite a big to get him and I'm not sure they'll be willing to offer enough to get a deal done.
17.) Bengals (F/ Oakland) Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 14)
Needs: DB,G,WR,RB,LB
This is a case where arguably the Bengals biggest need position is the same as the highest rated player on the board, but you'd understand if they passed. David DeCastro is a perfect fit for the Bengals who desperately need help along the interior, but Dre Kirkpatrick plays a greater impact position. His physical play is exactly what the Bengals want from their corners and with depth concerns at the position, Kirkpatrick would see plenty of time on the field as a rookie. I wouldn't be surprised though, if DeCastro is the pick given his extremely high value here. There's no chance Kirkpatrick falls to the Bengals at #21, but it's certainly possible that a player like Cordy Glenn, who can play guard or tackle, is available. In terms of the trade-off, you'd rather have Kirkpatrick and Glenn than DeCastro and then reaching for a lower tier corner.
18.) San Diego Chargers (8-8) David DeCastro G Stanford (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 9)
Needs: DL,LB,OL,DB,WR
San Diego could end up deciding between the second-best lineman in the draft and whomever they think is the best pass rusher left. San Diego isn't going to force it here, and I think they'll take DeCastro who could step in right away as a starter on an offensive line that has really struggled lately. DeCastro isn't massive, but the Chargers aren't going to be a power running team anyway, particularly with some of the fire power San Diego amassed in the offseason. Particularly given that the best pass rushers available at this point project better in a 4-3 defense, I'd expect if a player like DeCastro falls, he'll be a welcome site for San Diego.
19.) Chicago Bears (8-8) Whitney Mercilus DE Illinois (Pos. Rank: 5, Overall Rank: 24)
Needs: OL,CB,DE,TE,LB
For some reason, Chicago has decided its top need was at defensive end, even though their offensive line was a train wreck last year and they play in a division with Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson et al., so a defensive back would be nice here. On the other hand, the Bears can feel the window of this defense closing, meaning they'd like to upgrade it with an influx of young talent. I'm fine with Chandler Jones or Andre Branch here as well, although I think Courtney Upshaw is the best pass rusher left on the board. Mercilus was a one-year wonder at Illinois, but had one of the most productive seasons in college football history for a defensive end and with a chance to learn at the feet of Julius Peppers, could turn out to be a monster in the NFL.
20.) Tennessee Titans (9-7) Dontari Poe DT Memphis (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 16)
Needs: WR,CB,DL,TE,OL
A lot of mocks have the Titans going with Cordy Glenn or an end like Nick Perry, but Poe makes a ton of sense for a number of reasons. The first is that the Titans pass rush isn't very good and a big body like Poe would eat up space in the middle, freeing up defenders around him. Second, Poe has an extremely high ceiling despite underwhelming product at Memphis. I don't see Glenn much differently than I see Poe: big, strong, underachieving. Poe, however, is a much rarer player with his speed and quickness inside. In terms of raw ability, Poe has as many physical tools as you'll find in this draft. To me, Nick Perry or Courtney Upshaw make more sense than Glenn, but that doesn't mean Tennessee won't take him (I've been wrong before).
21.) Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) Cordy Glenn G/T Georgia (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 21)
Needs: DB,G,WR,RB,LB
This is the scenario I described above: Cincinnati takes care of its two biggest needs while maximizing the value of their picks. The Begnals love massive lineman and Glenn fits the bill at 6-5 and nearly 350 pounds. His lack of lateral quickness precludes him from being anything but a right tackle at the next level and he seems better suited to play guard. Line him up next to Andre Smith and suddenly you an incredibly strong right side of your offensive line. Kendall Wright makes sense here as well and teams are apparently lining up to take the former Baylor Bear wide receiver. I can see the Bengals biting if Glenn is off the board here.
22.) Cleveland Browns (F/ Atlanta) Jonathan Martin OT Stanford (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 26)
Needs: WR,OL,S,RB,QB,OLB
Cleveland is known to be extremely high on Brandon Weeden to the point they'd consider taking him at #22. There's also scuttlebutt that they'll use their high second round pick to trade back into the first round and assure themselves a chance to draft the Oklahoma State quarterback. Doug Martin has been a popular name in mock drafts as well with a late push into first round consideration. I think offensive line is much more likely, particularly with the drop-off at tackle after the first round. If the Browns really want a running back, there isn't a substantial difference between the second through fifth ranked running backs in this class. If they like Weeden enough to trade back into the first, then draft Martin to protect him and figure out how to snag him later.
23.) Detroit Lions (10-6) Dont'a Hightower ILB Alabama (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 23)
Needs: DB,LB,RB,WR,OL
I've seen enough permutations of this pick to believe the Lions are simply sitting back and waiting for the right player to come to them. If they're concerned about signing Cliff Avril to a long-term deal, Courtney Upshaw and Nick Perry immediately become considerations. To me though, Hightower's power and tenacity are exactly what head coach Jim Schwartz is looking for from his middle linebacker. A dominating, downhill linebacker, Hightower also has some pass rush ability and could mitigate some of the concerns left from losing Avril. I've been on Hightower since since sophomore season and he's one of my favorite players in this draft.
24.) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) Courtney Upshaw LB Alabama (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 19)
Needs: OL,DL,LB,RB,DB
To me, this is exactly the kind of pick I'd expect the Steelers to make. We know they have needs along the offensive and defensive lines, but the value isn't there with this pick. Some scouts thought Upshaw could play inside in a 3-4 defense coming into the season and after a sub-par postseason, there are some questions as to whether or not Upshaw is athletic enough to do that. I don't think it matters to Pittsburgh who could use Upshaw all over the field. The former Crimson Tide rush end was perhaps the most dominating defensive player in the best conference in football last year and that has to count for something. He has more versatility than people believe and no one is better as drafting the best player available than the Pittsburgh Steelers.
25.) Denver Broncos (8-8) Doug Martin RB Boise State (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 32)
Needs: WR,DB,DT,TE,RB
With needs at receiver, defensive line and defensive back, Martin is a little bit of a luxury pick here. If I were John Elway and John Fox, I'd be taking Kendall Wright, but because Martin has great versatility as a receiver out of the backfield and as a pass blocker, he makes sense here for Denver. Peyton Manning was at his best when he had Edgerrin James to pick up blitzers and to use out of the backfield. Coby Fleener and Devon Still could be temping here as well, but Martin sounds like the direction Denver is leaning.
26.) Houston Texans (10-6) Kendall Wright WR Baylor (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 32)
Needs: S,WR,OL,DE,QB
Best possible case scenario for the Texans. Wright is an ideal fit alongside Andre Johnson in this offense and will be used extensively in play-action to get over the top and take the top off of defenses. Wright's disappointing combine workouts were a red flag, but his stock is rising after impressive pro day workouts. Coby Fleener could be a good pick here as well and the Texans can't go wrong. If they want a first round pass catcher, they'll have a chance to get one here. Stephen Hill would even have value here if Wright comes off the board sooner.
27.)New England Patriots (F/ New Orleans) Chandler Jones DE Syracuse (Pos. Rank: 5, Overall Rank: 34)
Needs:DE,DB,OL,RB,LB
The best defensive lineman on the board will be picked here. Some mocks have Syracuse's Chandler Jones as high as #12, but I tend to be extremely skeptical of a guy who is a second round pick until three days before the draft and then suddenly he's a top 15 pick. That being said, Jones has outstanding pass rush potential and is everything you could want from a defensive end. He's actually similar to the Patriots now-departed defensive end Andre Carter in the way he's built, with long, lean arms. His quickness off the edge is his biggest asset and he may struggle a little setting the edge in the NFL. Mike Mayock believes Jones could be the best defensive player in this draft. That would be quite something if the Patriots could get him at #27.
28.) Green Bay Packers (15-1) Nick Perry OLB USC (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 22)
Needs: OLB,DL,S,OL,CB
Southern Cal' has been good to Green Bay when it comes to picking outside linebackers and Perry is not just the best pass rusher on the board left, he's the best overall player. We know Ted Thompson will go with best available over biggest need, but he has a chance to get both with this pick. Perry is a freak athlete, a 271 pound former defensive end who runs a 4.64 40. Green Bay may ask him to slim down a little to play outside since Perry put on an extra 10 pounds of muscle to show he can play the 4-3 end at the next level. He'll have to work on his coverage skills, but the average match up with a rush linebacker isn't going to end well for the defense anyway. Getting a player who lead the Pac-12 in sacks is the impact Green Bay needs, even if he's a liability in coverage.
29.) Baltimore Ravens (12-4) Stephen Hill WR Georgia Tech (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 31)
Needs: OL,OLB,DB,RB,WR
Torrey Smith was outstanding as Baltimore's deep threat last season, but the Ravens still aren't very explosive outside of Smith's big play ability. Hill wowed scouts at the combine with a blistering 40 yard time, but his limited production and polish coming out of Georgia Tech's option offense is worrisome. With another year of development and a full offseason for Smith, the Ravens could rely on Smith to do more than just run deep, while allowing Hill to step into that role. Suddenly, the Ravens would have one of the fastest and most explosive wide receiving duos in the league.
30.) San Francisco 49ers (13-3) Amini Silatolu G Midwestern State (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 53)
Needs: CB,OL,S,RB,DL,TE
Some scouts see shades of Larry Allen when they watch Silatolu play. One of the things about small school players is you can't be sure they're great because they dominate, but you can be sure they stink if they don't. Silatolu falls into the former category and was a monster at Midwestern State, the kind of physical domination that made you wonder how he didn't play legitimate Division 1 football. So that begs the question, why didn't he? He is certainly a bigger risk at the position than Wisconsin's Kevin Zeitler, but teams see the talent and physical ability and the potential is overwhelmingly apparent. A boom-or-bust prospect who has made his way in the first round. If I'm in the San Francisco war room, I can make a pick like this because the team has so few holes. If it works, it's outstanding, if it doesn't, you're still a favorite in the NFC.
31.) Cleveland Browns (F/ New England) Brandon Weeden QB Oklahoma State (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 45)
**Project Trade**
Needs: WR,OL,S,RB,QB,OLB
More than likely, the Patriots will be happy to trade out of this pick for a team interested in Brandon Weeden. I expect the Browns are the most likely to try and get back into the first to nab him. Fortunately, it may not take too much to trade up the six spots to make sure they get the quarterback they're looking for. If Weeden were 22, I think there's no question he'd considered a first round quarterback and in some ways his age (28) is a plus because he can walk into a locker room and command respect immediately. Weeden is NFL-ready and if you pair him with his former receiver in this offense, they don't have to spend a minute developing chemistry. The value isn't great here, but I think for the Browns it makes sense if they've already taken Blackmon.
32.) New York Giants (9-7) Levonte David LB Nebraska
Needs: OL,CB,LB,RB,WR
Coby Fleener will get a long look here to be sure, especially given the last team the Giants played has the best tight end int he game. David, though, plays a greater position of need and is a better value at this point. The former Cornhusker is one of the most underrated players in the draft and is an absolute stud playmaker at the position. If he weighed 15 more pounds, he'd be a top 20 pick in my opinion, but his instincts are terrific and he's the kind of athletic linebacker the Giants have been trying to find.
Round 2
33.) St. Louis Rams (2-14) Coby Fleener TE Stanford
Needs: WR,DB,OL,OLB,DT
St. Louis breaks Indy's heart by taking the best tight end in the draft who happens to be Andrew Luck's former teammate
34.) Indianapolis Colts (2-14) Devon Still DT Penn State
Needs:OL,RB,LB,WR,CB,DT
Colts have to improve 29th ranked rush defense from last season with one of the best run defenders in the draft.
35.) Minnesota Vikings (3-13) Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama
Needs: OL,DB,WR,DT,LB
This is why you take Khalil at #3: you can still get a first round caliber corner here. You can't get the same value at tackle.
36.)New England Patriots (F/ Cleveland) Jerel Worthy DT Michigan State
**Projected Trade**
Needs:DE,DB,OL,RB,LB
Re-signing Dan Koppen allows the Pats to nab the powerful interior rusher from Michigan State to boost the defensive front even further.
37.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12) Peter Konz C Wisconsin
Needs: LB,DB,OL,TE,RB,WR
Without a viable center on the roster, Tampa finds the cornerstone center to lead their offense which now centers around Trent Richardson.
38.) Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11) David Wilson RB Virginia Tech
Needs: WR,DE,OL,DB,RB
Alshon Jeffery is too big a risk to Jags, so Wilson gives Jacksonville terrific 1-2 punch at running back.
39.) St. Louis Rams (2-14) Alshon Jeffery WR South Carolina
Needs: WR,DB,OL,OLB,DT
Jeff Fisher not afraid to take most talented player on the board at a position of need, despite red flags. Jeffery will be terrific with a legitimate quarterback.
40.) Carolina Panthers (6-10) Brandon Boykin CB Georgia
Needs: CB,WR,S,LB, DL
Best defensive back on the board would help improve Carolina's abysmal passing defense, plus could give Steve Smith a break in the return game.
41.) Buffalo Bills (6-10) Kevin Zeitler G Wisconsin
Needs: OL,WR,LB,DB,TE
Biggest need gets addressed with polished, physical guard from Wisconsin.
42.) Miami Dolphins (6-10) Rueben Randle WR LSU
Needs: OL,QB,WR,LB,TE,S
If you're going to pick Tannehill, you better get someone for him to throw to. Raw, talented Randle will need time to develop, but has big-time upside.
43.) Seattle Seahawks (7-9) Mike Adams OT Ohio State
Needs: OL,LB,CB,TE,WR
Adams might be second best left tackle prospect in the draft and Seattle needs serious help along the offensive line.
44.) Kansas City Chiefs (7-9) Dwayne Allen TE Clemson
Needs: WR,TE,OL,NT,LB
Chiefs offense has limited weapons and Allen would help in both phases of the offense. Good value here.
45.) Dallas Cowboys (8-8) Trumaine Johnson CB Montana
Needs: OL,DL,DB,WR,TE
Versatile FBS defensive back would be a major upgrade for this struggling Dallas defense.
46.) Philadelphia Eagles (8-8) Lamer Miller RB Miami (Fla.)
Needs:OL,LB,DT,S,RB,WR
Philly gets a back to lighten the burden for LeSean McCoy and provide much-needed depth at the position.
47.) New York Jets (8-8) Andre Branch OLB/DE Clemson
Needs: OLB,OL,WR,DL,RB
Major pass rush upgrade for the Jets who failed to generate pressure last year without blitzing.
48.) New England Patriots (F/ Oakland) Harrison Smith S Notre Dame
Needs:DE,DB,OL,RB,LB Physical box safety heading to New England, a team who was pulling guys off the street to play in the secondary last year.
49.) San Diego Chargers (8-8) Zach Brown LB North Carolina
Needs: DL,LB,OL,DB,WR
Not an ideal fit for the Chargers, but Brown is lightening fast and could learn from underrated rusher Antwan Barnes.
50.) Chicago Bears (8-8) Bobbie Massie OT Mississippi
Needs: OL,CB,DE,TE,LB
Offensive line remains a problem for the Bears and if Gabe Carimi gets healthy, Massie will have some time to develop.
51.) Jacksonville Jaguars (F/ Philadelphia) Brandon Thompson DT Clemson
**Projected Trade**
Needs: WR,DE,OL,DB,RB
Jags get a defensive line upgrade once considered to be a first round talent as part of Eagles trade for Fletcher Cox.
52.) Tennessee Titans (9-7) Shea McClellin DE Boise State
Needs: WR,CB,DL,TE,OL
Tennessee loves to get winners and McClellin is a relentless edge rusher with an excellent college background.
53.) Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) Chris Polk RB Washington
Needs: DB,G,WR,RB,LB
Cinci gets solid value with the versatile Polk to go with the Bengals' potent, young offensive core.
54.) Detroit Lions (10-6) Mitchell Schwartz OT California
Needs: DB,LB,RB,WR,OL
Lions need to do a better job of opening holes in the run game and protecting Matthew Stafford, so getting the best available offensive lineman should help do that.
55.) Atlanta Falcons (10-6) Vinny Curry DE Marshall
Needs: OL,DB,DE,WR,TE
Falcons desperately need a pass rusher to generate pressure opposite John Abraham and Curry is a good fit for 4-3 scheme.
56.) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) Kendall Reyes DT Connecticut
Needs: OL,DL,LB,RB,DB
It would be a gift if a fringe first round talent like Reyes fell all the way to Steelers here.
57.) Denver Broncos (8-8) Kirk Cousins QB Michigan State
Needs: WR,DB,DT,TE,RB
Wouldn't be popular with Peyton Manning, but Broncos get QB of the future who (like Tebow) is proven winner.
58.) Houston Texans (10-6) Bobby Wagner ILB Utah State
Needs: S,WR,OL,DE,QB
Athletic replacement for departed Demeco Ryans and Houston continues to build a dominating defense.
59.) Green Bay Packers (15-1) Jared Crick DL Nebraska
Needs: OLB,DL,S,OL,CB
Packers get defensive line upgrade they desperate need to pair with first round stud Nick Perry.
60.) Baltimore Ravens (12-4) Josh Robinson CB Central Florida
Needs: OL,OLB,DB,RB,WR
Speedy corner would be terrific nickelback for Ravens in a division full of terrific young receivers.
61.) San Francisco 49ers (13-3) Jamell Flemming CB Oklahoma
Needs: CB,OL,S,RB,DL,TE
Thin 49ers secondary gets upgrade with rising Oklahoma corner who is excellent in man coverage.
62.) New England Patriots (13-3)Mohamed Sanu WR Rutgers
Needs:DE,DB,OL,RB,LBHighly-productive college receiver would give Patriots a young weapon outside to pair with their terrific tandem of tight ends.
63.) New York Giants (9-7) Brian Quick WR Appalachian State
Needs: OL,CB,LB,RB,WR
Raw receiver would have time to develop for Giants, could eventually be a terrific trio with Cruz and Nicks.
Round 3
64.)Indianapolis Colts - Orson Charles TE Georgia
65.) St. Louis Rams - Kelechi Osemele OL Iowa State
66.) Minnesota Vikings - Ronnell Lewis OLB/DE Oklahoma
67. Cleveland Browns - Bruce Irvin OLB West Virginia
68.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Chase Minnifield CB Virginia
69.) Washington Redskins - Alameda Ta'amu NT Washington
70.) Jacksonville Jaguars - Joe Adams WR Arkansas
71.) Buffalo Bills - Zebrie Sanders OT Florida State
72.) Miami Dolphins - LaMichael James RB Oregon
73.) Dolphins F/ Chicago - Markelle Martin S Oklahoma State
74.) Kansas City Chiefs - Brock Osweiler QB Arizona State
75.) Seattle Seahawks - Jayron Hosley CB Virginia Tech
76.) Texans F/ Philadelphia - Jeff Allen OL Illinois
77.) New York Jets - Casey Heyward CB Vanderbilt
78.) San Diego Chargers - Jonathan Massoquoi OLB Troy
79.) Chicago Bears - Chris Givens WR Wake Forest
80.) Arizona Cardinals - Nick Toon WR Wisconsin
81.) Dallas Cowboys - Marvin Jones WR California
82.) Tennessee Titans - Brandon Brooks G Miami (OH)
83.) Cincinnati Bengals - Cameron Johnson DE Virginia
84.) Atlanta Falcons - Mike Martin DT Michigan
85.) Detroit Lions - Mychal Kendricks LB California
86.) Pittsburgh Steelers - Tyronne Crawford DE Boise State
87.) Denver Broncos - Dwight Bentley CB LA-Lafeyette
88.) Eagles F/ Houson - George Iloka S Boise State
89.) New Orleans Saints - Brandon Washington G Miami (Fla.)
90.) Green Bay Packers - Isaiah Pead RB Cincinnati
91.) Baltimore Ravens - Ben Jones C Georgia
92.) San Francisco 49ers - Trevor Guyton DL California
93.) New England Patriots - Matt McCants OT UAB
94.) New York Giants - Ledarius Green TE LA-Lafeyette
95.) Oakland Raiders (Comp. Pick) - Nigel Bradham LB Florida State
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: St. Louis Rams
If there is a team picking in the top 10 capable of a quick turnaround, the St. Louis Rams are that team.
St. Louis will have massive roster turnover from the 2011 to the 2012 season, which is a good thing for a team finishing with just two wins last season.
Jeff Fisher was brought on board to bring some credibility back to the Rams and with Sam Bradford healthy, along with a sizable influx of free agent talent, St. Louis is poised for a bounceback season.
Will they make the playoffs? I doubt it, but when you go from an 8-8 team to a 2-14 team, thanks in large part to injuries, it's not hard to make a return to .500 a realistic goal.
The Rams offense was one of the worst in the league last year with Sam Bradford and Stephen Jackson hurt much of the year.
Bare cupboards at the skill positions were the biggest problem for St. Louis and with the injuries, there wasn't time for the below average players to develop any rhythm or continuity.
Some veteran talent was brought on board and the Rams have three picks in the top 40 thanks to the trade with the Redskins.
A full offseason with better talent surrounding him should help the development of Sam Bradford who still has a chance to be an elite quarterback in the league.
His development hinges on this draft, particularly with the glut of picks the Rams have at their disposal. They've played the free agent market well: let the lackluster players leave and seek good value at other positions.
Now, we'll see if they can do the same in the draft.
Offense
The Greatest Show on Turf is a distant memory when you look at the players on this offense. Brandon Lloyd, the team's best receiver last year signed with the Patriots in the offseason.
Former Eagle Steve Smith was signed coming off injury, but if he is healthy he'd be a solid possession receiver. That being said, getting some explosive talent on offense remains the biggest focus of the team for this season and beyond.
There are plenty of talented receivers, a few quality tight ends and some good running backs to choose from in this draft. St. Louis would be wise to grab one of each and maybe a few of the pass-catchers to facilitate the development of Bradford.
Along the front, the Rams should be an improved team, signing Scott Wells from Green Bay and Quinn Ojinnaka from Indianapolis. Wells is one of the best centers in the game and Ojinnaka does have some starting experience.
St. Louis has a franchise quarterback and running back, but essentially nothing else on offense. They could spend their first three picks on offense and still need help.
Key Free Agents:Danny Amendola WR, Billy Bajema TE, Jacob Bell G (signed w/ Bengals), Jason Brown C, Mark Clayton WR, Kellen Clemens QB (re-signed w/ Rams), A.J. Feeley QB, Adam Goldberg OT, Mark LeVoir OT, Brandon Lloyd WR (signed w/ Patriots), Jerious Norwood RB, Stephen Spach, Cadillac Williams RB, Tony Wragge C
Defense
This front four was a big reason why the Rams finished 7th in the league in passing. That stat though, is a little misleading because the Rams were behind so many games late, teams ran the ball to protect leads.
When it came to keeping teams from scoring, the Rams were 26th in the league in points allowed. St. Louis has quality pass rushers with Chris Long and Robert Quinn. Long-time defensive end James Hall was cut to give Quinn more playing time and the ultra-talented, former Tar Heel is poised for a break-out season.
Trevor Laws, Kendall Langord and Williams Hayes were all signed to bolster this defensive front and improve on a defense that was second to last in stopping the run. A continued push through the draft to get better along the front seven should be expected.
Corner and linebacker are the two major areas of concern for the Rams. Cortland Finnegan, a Pro Bowl corner in Tennessee, was signed to improve a horrendous secondary. Jo-Lonn Dunbar was signed from the Saints to bring some veteran leadership, but he's hardly an elite talent.
With a deep corner class, the Rams should be able to find some young talent to fill the holes in the secondary. It's worth it to spend an early pick on a linebacker because the depth of this class falls off considerably after the first few players.
The holes on this team are as obvious as they are numerous and St. Louis can't go wrong with whichever positions they chose to address.
Key Free Agents: Mikail Baker DB (signed w/ Chiefs), Justin Bannan DT (signed w/ Broncos), Ron Bartell CB (signed w/ Raiders), James Butler DB, Chris Chamberlain OLB (signed w/ Saints), Craig Dahl SS, Gary Gibson DT, Al Harris CB, Roderick Hood CB, Bryan Kehl OLB (signed w/ Redskins), Justin King CB, Ben Leber OLB, Brady Poppinga OLB,
Draft Targets
Round 2 (Pick 33): Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 35)
As there tends to be at the start of the second round, the Rams will have a first round talent to pick from here. Jenkins was long considered a first round pick, but off the field concerns have scared some teams away. Needs in the secondary might just be too pressing for the Rams to pass here and with another second round pick just six selections later, St. Louis can afford to take a calculated risk here. Jenkins, as a strict coverman, is without peers in this draft. His quickness and instincts are terrific, but he's not a great tackler and his work ethic is a question mark. This is a boom or bust pick, but one that the Rams can afford to make.
Round 2 (Pick 39 F/ Redskins): Zach Brown OLB North Carolina (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 38)
After going after a high risk/high reward player at 33, a pick like Brown doesn't make as much sense, but the value is right and Brown's athletic skills are unquestioned. Brown just might be the best athlete at any position in the draft. His unmatched speed is actually a hindrance occasionally, because he'll overrun plays, but if he can throttle down a little and play more under control, he can be a difference-maker. Running back Lamar Miller or offensive tackle Mike Adams could also make sense here, but Brown has the most upside of that group and plays a position of extreme need.
St. Louis will have massive roster turnover from the 2011 to the 2012 season, which is a good thing for a team finishing with just two wins last season.
Jeff Fisher was brought on board to bring some credibility back to the Rams and with Sam Bradford healthy, along with a sizable influx of free agent talent, St. Louis is poised for a bounceback season.
Will they make the playoffs? I doubt it, but when you go from an 8-8 team to a 2-14 team, thanks in large part to injuries, it's not hard to make a return to .500 a realistic goal.
The Rams offense was one of the worst in the league last year with Sam Bradford and Stephen Jackson hurt much of the year.
Bare cupboards at the skill positions were the biggest problem for St. Louis and with the injuries, there wasn't time for the below average players to develop any rhythm or continuity.
Some veteran talent was brought on board and the Rams have three picks in the top 40 thanks to the trade with the Redskins.
A full offseason with better talent surrounding him should help the development of Sam Bradford who still has a chance to be an elite quarterback in the league.
His development hinges on this draft, particularly with the glut of picks the Rams have at their disposal. They've played the free agent market well: let the lackluster players leave and seek good value at other positions.
Now, we'll see if they can do the same in the draft.
Offense
The Greatest Show on Turf is a distant memory when you look at the players on this offense. Brandon Lloyd, the team's best receiver last year signed with the Patriots in the offseason.
Former Eagle Steve Smith was signed coming off injury, but if he is healthy he'd be a solid possession receiver. That being said, getting some explosive talent on offense remains the biggest focus of the team for this season and beyond.
There are plenty of talented receivers, a few quality tight ends and some good running backs to choose from in this draft. St. Louis would be wise to grab one of each and maybe a few of the pass-catchers to facilitate the development of Bradford.
Along the front, the Rams should be an improved team, signing Scott Wells from Green Bay and Quinn Ojinnaka from Indianapolis. Wells is one of the best centers in the game and Ojinnaka does have some starting experience.
St. Louis has a franchise quarterback and running back, but essentially nothing else on offense. They could spend their first three picks on offense and still need help.
Key Free Agents:Danny Amendola WR, Billy Bajema TE, Jacob Bell G (signed w/ Bengals), Jason Brown C, Mark Clayton WR, Kellen Clemens QB (re-signed w/ Rams), A.J. Feeley QB, Adam Goldberg OT, Mark LeVoir OT, Brandon Lloyd WR (signed w/ Patriots), Jerious Norwood RB, Stephen Spach, Cadillac Williams RB, Tony Wragge C
Defense
This front four was a big reason why the Rams finished 7th in the league in passing. That stat though, is a little misleading because the Rams were behind so many games late, teams ran the ball to protect leads.
When it came to keeping teams from scoring, the Rams were 26th in the league in points allowed. St. Louis has quality pass rushers with Chris Long and Robert Quinn. Long-time defensive end James Hall was cut to give Quinn more playing time and the ultra-talented, former Tar Heel is poised for a break-out season.
Trevor Laws, Kendall Langord and Williams Hayes were all signed to bolster this defensive front and improve on a defense that was second to last in stopping the run. A continued push through the draft to get better along the front seven should be expected.
Corner and linebacker are the two major areas of concern for the Rams. Cortland Finnegan, a Pro Bowl corner in Tennessee, was signed to improve a horrendous secondary. Jo-Lonn Dunbar was signed from the Saints to bring some veteran leadership, but he's hardly an elite talent.
With a deep corner class, the Rams should be able to find some young talent to fill the holes in the secondary. It's worth it to spend an early pick on a linebacker because the depth of this class falls off considerably after the first few players.
The holes on this team are as obvious as they are numerous and St. Louis can't go wrong with whichever positions they chose to address.
Key Free Agents: Mikail Baker DB (signed w/ Chiefs), Justin Bannan DT (signed w/ Broncos), Ron Bartell CB (signed w/ Raiders), James Butler DB, Chris Chamberlain OLB (signed w/ Saints), Craig Dahl SS, Gary Gibson DT, Al Harris CB, Roderick Hood CB, Bryan Kehl OLB (signed w/ Redskins), Justin King CB, Ben Leber OLB, Brady Poppinga OLB,
Draft Targets
Needs: WR,DB,OL,OLB,DT
Round 1 (Pick 6 F/ Redskins): Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 6)
Round 1 (Pick 6 F/ Redskins): Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 6)
Silly season has thrown out a lot of ideas to what might happen with this pick. Some believe the Rams could even trade back up to get Trent Richardson to replace Stephen Jackson. St. Louis is reported to be very high on Richardson and Mississippi State tackle Fletcher Cox and there are teams apparently willing to trade up with Tampa Bay to snatch Cox before the Rams. Blackmon, though, makes the most sense here under just about any circumstance. He's the best receiver in this draft and is just a step below elite. Especially on turf, he's explosive enough to be a #1 receiver and I think he is physical enough to overcome some of his athletic deficiencies. The talk about Blackmon being overrated, to me, is silliness.
Round 2 (Pick 33): Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 35)
As there tends to be at the start of the second round, the Rams will have a first round talent to pick from here. Jenkins was long considered a first round pick, but off the field concerns have scared some teams away. Needs in the secondary might just be too pressing for the Rams to pass here and with another second round pick just six selections later, St. Louis can afford to take a calculated risk here. Jenkins, as a strict coverman, is without peers in this draft. His quickness and instincts are terrific, but he's not a great tackler and his work ethic is a question mark. This is a boom or bust pick, but one that the Rams can afford to make.
Round 2 (Pick 39 F/ Redskins): Zach Brown OLB North Carolina (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 38)
After going after a high risk/high reward player at 33, a pick like Brown doesn't make as much sense, but the value is right and Brown's athletic skills are unquestioned. Brown just might be the best athlete at any position in the draft. His unmatched speed is actually a hindrance occasionally, because he'll overrun plays, but if he can throttle down a little and play more under control, he can be a difference-maker. Running back Lamar Miller or offensive tackle Mike Adams could also make sense here, but Brown has the most upside of that group and plays a position of extreme need.
Round 3 (Pick 65): Orson Charles TE Georgia (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 66)
I love this pick for the Rams because Charles is the kind of player who could be a monster in this offense. On turf, his speed and strength would be amplified and with a quality running game, Charles could be extremely dangerous in the middle of the field. From an athletic standpoint, much like Brown, Charles is peerless in this draft. He definitely passes the eye test, but his strength doesn't make up for his relative lack of size. That means blocking won't be his forte, but as a receiver, Charles could be devastating. It wouldn't take much for him to become Bradford's favorite target in short order, particularly since Bradford loved to use the tight ends at Oklahoma (the last time he had quality tight ends).
Overall
Four picks in the top 70 should net you at least two starters and this group could have four and this class would undoubtedly have the most upside of any in the NFL. The athletes in this draft would be terrific on the field turf at the Edwards Jones Dome and with the veteran talent brought in this offseason, would create a great balance of you and experienced players. Jeff Fisher wasn't brought to St. Louis to not make an impact. He was part of the decision makers when the Titans took Vince Young and more recently Chris Johnson, when it was obvious their biggest needs were at wide receiver. Young had one of the best rookie years for a quarterback in recent memory and CJ2K turned into one of the most explosive players in the history of the league (last season was the exception not the rule). Fisher is here to make an impact and he'll get impact players in this draft.
Four picks in the top 70 should net you at least two starters and this group could have four and this class would undoubtedly have the most upside of any in the NFL. The athletes in this draft would be terrific on the field turf at the Edwards Jones Dome and with the veteran talent brought in this offseason, would create a great balance of you and experienced players. Jeff Fisher wasn't brought to St. Louis to not make an impact. He was part of the decision makers when the Titans took Vince Young and more recently Chris Johnson, when it was obvious their biggest needs were at wide receiver. Young had one of the best rookie years for a quarterback in recent memory and CJ2K turned into one of the most explosive players in the history of the league (last season was the exception not the rule). Fisher is here to make an impact and he'll get impact players in this draft.
Final Thought
Again, I think the Rams are a bounceback team in 2012. If they gave an award for comeback team of the year, I think St. Louis would have to be considered a favorite. I'm not sure they can win enough games to make the playoffs ahead of the teams in the East and North, but they're going to be much improved. With a draft like this, the Rams could quickly become one of the most athletic and explosive teams in the league. For this team, though, 2012 isn't the end goal. They can't and won't compete this upcoming season for a title, but in the next three or four years, I think there's reason to believe they can. Bradford and Long form the same kind of offensive/defensive cornerstone duo like Stafford/Suh, Rodgers/Matthews, Romo/Ware and the other elite combo's in the NFC. A solid draft would put the Rams on the right track to take the proverbial next step.
Again, I think the Rams are a bounceback team in 2012. If they gave an award for comeback team of the year, I think St. Louis would have to be considered a favorite. I'm not sure they can win enough games to make the playoffs ahead of the teams in the East and North, but they're going to be much improved. With a draft like this, the Rams could quickly become one of the most athletic and explosive teams in the league. For this team, though, 2012 isn't the end goal. They can't and won't compete this upcoming season for a title, but in the next three or four years, I think there's reason to believe they can. Bradford and Long form the same kind of offensive/defensive cornerstone duo like Stafford/Suh, Rodgers/Matthews, Romo/Ware and the other elite combo's in the NFC. A solid draft would put the Rams on the right track to take the proverbial next step.
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