I predicted yesterday that you'd see one of the crazier first rounds in recent memory. The rookie wage scale has made it a much lower risk to be aggressive and target players higher in the draft.
The point being, it won't cost as much as it used to.
We saw eight trades last night, right around average for the first round (a little over seven is the average), and half of the 32 picks were owned by more than one team at some time or another.
That rookie wage scale may have been why we saw some considerable reaching being done as well. The thought process being, this is the guy we want and we don't have to pay him exorbitant dollars, so let's pull the trigger and not worry about what round we're in.
Guys like Bruce Irvin and A.J. Jenkins didn't even make second round grades coming into the draft, so to see them go in the first, particularly with Jenkins, was shocking.
Some savvy moves from Minnesota (I know, I was as surprised as you were) and New England landed them some solid players with good value.
There are still three legitimate first round players available and as many as nine more fringe first round talents (8 of my top 32 are still available!), so there are plenty of quality players to be had tonight. A team like the Rams, with three picks in the top 13, could get quite a haul of talent, despite missing out on the top two wide receivers in the draft.
1.) Indianapolis Colts (2-14) Andrew Luck QB Stanford (Projected Pick: Andrew Luck)
Needs:OL,RB,LB,WR,CB,DT
Let's not quibble over his potential vs. RG3, this was the right pick and the Colts made it. He's a Pro Bowl player, but he will need some help around him.
2.) Washington Redskins (F/ Rams) Robert Griffin III QB Baylor (Projected Pick: Robert Griffin III)
Needs: QB,DL,OL,TE,DB
His draft day hat is about the only thing that doesn't fit about RG3 and Washington. This offense was made for a quarterback with quickness and a strong arm. The Redskins gave up a lot, but they got a franchise player in return.
3.) Cleveland Browns (F/ Vikings) Trent Richardson RB Alabama (Projected Pick: Justin Blackmon)
Needs: WR,OL,S,RB,QB,OLB
Somehow, the Vikings suckered the Browns into believing either the Jets or the Bucs were seriously considering moving into the #3 spot to take Richardson, so Cleveland made sure that didn't happen. Richardson immediately becomes on of the elite running backs in the league. I still think staying put and taking Blackmon made more sense.
4.) Minnesota Vikings (F/ Browns) Matt Khalil OT USC (Projected Pick: Matt Khalil)
Needs: OL,DB,WR,DT,LB
Well played Vikings. I tried to tell you yesterday Minnesota intended all along to take Khalil, although I think they would have been genuinely happy to take Claiborne if they had to. Khalil has Pro Bowl potential as a left tackle, but there are concerns about his strength and power anchoring. Vikes needed him badly.
5.) Jacksonville Jaguars (F/ Buccaneers) Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State (Projected Pick: Melvin Ingram DE/DT South Carolina)
Needs: WR,DE,OL,DB,RB
I predicted the Jags would trade down if Blackmon didn't fall, but when the Oklahoma State receiver got past the Vikings, Jacksonville didn't waste any time. Blackmon will be Blaine Gabbert's top target with his powerful body and excellent hands. Concerns about his speed are vastly overrated. As Mel Kiper Jr. noted last night, you never saw anyone catch him from behind.
6.) Dallas Cowboys (8-8) Morris Claiborne CB LSU (Projected Pick: Michael Brockers)
Needs: OL,DL,DB,WR,TE
Allegedly (I say that because who knows what to believe with Jerry Jones), Claiborne was the highest rated corner of their board since Deion Sanders. To me, that's ridiculous with guys like Charles Woodson and Champ Bailey having been drafted since then and Claiborne isn't even close to their talent. Dallas needed the help in the secondary though and got a corner with excellent ball skills. He's still overrated in my opinion.
7.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (F/ Jaguars) Mark Barron S Alabama (Projected Pick: Trent Richardson)
Needs: LB,DB,OL,TE,RB,WR
Tampa knew when it traded back that the chances they'd land Morris Claiborne were slim. Barron, to me, is the first real reach of this draft, although I think he's going to be a solid NFL player. Under the old CBA, I think there's no way Tampa takes a safety this high and a guy like Luke Kuechley would have been more likely.
8.) Miami Dolphins (6-10) Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M (Projected Pick: Ryan Tannehill)
Needs: OL,QB,WR,LB,TE,S
The best thing I can say about this pick is at least they didn't trade up. Tannehill has more upside than the quarterbacks after him in this draft, but he has a lower floor than the next few as well. It's the best case scenario for Tannehill however, with his former head coach and Aaron Rodger's former coach running this offense.
9.) Carolina Panthers (6-10) Luke Kuechley MLB Boston College (Projected Pick: Luke Kuechley)
Needs: CB,WR,S,LB, DL
Good for the Panthers for sticking to their board here and taking the best player who can help them next year. Kuechley is a unique linebacker talent with outstanding awareness to read and react, especially in coverage. A pass rusher had to have been tempting, but Kuechley isn't just a "safe" pick, he has Pro Bowl talent.
10.) Buffalo Bills (6-10) Stephon Gilmore CB South Carolina (Projected Pick: Stephon Gilmore)
Needs: OL,WR,LB,DB,TE
This was a pick I'd projected, but not necessarily what I would have done. I have Kirkpatrick rated higher than Gilmore, but a ton of NFL personnel had it this way. I can't argue the position though because the Bills have struggled to find corners to play against the pass happy teams in the AFC.
11.) Kansas City Chiefs (7-9) Dontari Poe DT Memphis (Projected Pick: Mark Barron)
Needs: WR,TE,OL,NT,LB
Immediately after the combine, I pegged this as a potential landing spot for Poe. The Chiefs desperately needed a nose tackle to eat up blocks and help what was a horrible run defense. Poe doesn't show on film what he flashed at the combine, but if anyone can get maximize his talent it's Romeo Crennel, an excellent former d-line coach.
12.) Philadelphia Eagles (F/ Seahawks) Fletcher Cox DT Mississippi State (Projected Pick: Fletcher Cox)
Needs:OL,LB,DT,S,RB,WR
Only the second pick so far in the draft with a net positive value, the Eagles get the best defensive tackle in the draft to anchor a defensive line with explosive ends but a flimsy middle. Cox has monster potential and makes this Eagles defense better right away with his power and quickness.
13.) Arizona Cardinals (8-8) Michael Floyd WR Notre Dame (Projected Pick: Riley Reiff OT Iowa)
Needs: OL,OLB,WR,DB,RB
There were greater needs and better values available with this pick, but Arizona got the player they wanted and in the process created a dynamic receiver tandem with Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald. As I tweeted last night, if Kevin Kolb can't complete passes to these guys, he should just retire.
14.) St. Louis Rams (F/ Cowboys) Michael Brockers DT LSU (Projected Pick: Morris Claiborne)
Needs: WR,DB,OL,OLB,DT
St. Louis twice missed out on taking the best receiver available by just one pick while also failing to get one of the top corners in the draft. Brockers has been a Rams target all along and apparently was a consideration at #6 if they'd stayed. In terms of physical tools, Brockers is an impact run-stopper right away in the NFL and has the potential to be a solid pass rusher with some work.
15.) Seattle Seahawks (F/ Eagles) Bruce Irvin DE/OLB West Virginia (Projected Pick: Quinton Coples)
Needs: OL,LB,CB,TE,WR
Seattle had their choice of any pass rusher in the draft, yet they chose a guy who was a fringe second round prospect. Irvin is one of the most unique athletes we've seen as a defensive end with 4.4 speed, but his size and strength limitations are concerning, especially for a 4-3 team. He's a situational rusher in the NFL and the Seahawks have to hope they catch lightening in a bottle the way the 49ers did last year with Aldon Smith's situation rush success.
16.) New York Jets (8-8) Quinton Coples DE North Carolina (Projected Pick: Michael Floyd)
Needs: OLB,OL,WR,DL,RB
Some are down on this pick for the Jets, but I'm one of the few who thinks this a great fit. Coples is perhaps the most physically gifted pass rusher in the draft, but doesn't always give consistent effort. On a defense with players like David Harris and Darrelle Revis, not to mention lead by Rex Ryan, I don't see how Coples gives any less than 100%. If he plays hard, there is scary talent in that big body, to the point there was speculation heading into the season Coples could be a top 5 pick.
17.) Bengals (F/ Oakland) Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama (Projected Pick: Dre Kirkpatrick)
Needs: DB,G,WR,RB,LB
Plenty of people were shocked when Cinci pulled the trigger on Kirkpatrick over such an outstanding guard like David DeCastro. You could argue that guard was a greater position of need, although, as I argued yesterday, Kirkpatrick plays an impact position. You need at least three corners to be successful in the NFL with these offenses and the Bengals get one of the more underrated talents in the draft.
18.) San Diego Chargers (8-8) Melvin Ingram OLB South Carolina (Projected Pick:David DeCastro)
Needs: DL,LB,OL,DB,WR
The Chargers might be the only team I can begrudge taking someone over DeCastro because pass rush has been such a problem for this team. Shaun Phillips is getting older and outside of Antwan Barnes, this team doesn't have much. Ingram is a versatile defender with a relentless motor and while I'm not as high on him as others, I think this is a perfect team at a perfect spot in the draft for him.
19.) Chicago Bears (8-8) Shea McClellin DE Boise State (Projected Pick: Whitney Mercilus)
Needs: OL,CB,DE,TE,LB
This one is a head-scratcher because Chicago's defensive line is in much better shape than the offensive line, not to mention McClellin is, at best, the fourth best available pass rusher. Kendall Wright would have made more sense as well. McClellin will be an under-sized 4-3 defensive end who relies on quickness and relentlessness to get to the quarterback. He's a poor man's Clay Matthews, making this a big-time reach.
20.) Tennessee Titans (9-7) Kendall Wright WR Baylor (Projected Pick: Dontari Poe)
Needs: WR,CB,DL,TE,OL
I can't question this pick here because I've projected it at various times throughout the draft process, but there may be a question of value here. That being said, Wright is a potentially explosive compliment to the bigger receivers Tennessee already has and can work out of the slot with success. Given Tennessee's apparent focus on interior blocking this year, I was somewhat surprised to see the Titans also pass on DeCastro.
21.) New England Patriots (F/ Bengals) Chandler Jones DE Syracuse (Projected Pick: Chandler Jones)
Needs:DE,DB,OL,RB,LB
Terrific pick for the Patriots who get a player to bring a pass rush back to this defense. Jones was hurt to start the year, otherwise he likely would have been a first round prospect heading into the draft process. His closing speed is what makes him so attractive because once he gets around the corner he's on top of the ball carrier in a hurry. Trading up is worth it for the Pats, who needed to make sure they get one of these first round rushers and had plenty of picks to use.
22.) Cleveland Browns (F/ Atlanta) Brandon Weeden QB Oklahoma State (Projected Pick Jonathan Martin)
Needs: WR,OL,S,RB,QB,OLB
This was one of the worst kept secrets of the draft. Everyone knew the Browns wanted to take Weeden, but Cleveland was worried he wouldn't last until the top of the second round (I'm not convinced they were wrong about that). I predicted they'd trade back into the first to nab Weeden late, but instead they sit at #22 to take the Oklahoma state quarterback. At 28, age is a concern, but Weeden is as NFL ready as any player in the draft and if he can be a legitimate starter for seven or eight seasons, that's all you can ask for late in the first.
23.) Detroit Lions (10-6) Riley Reiff OT Iowa (Projected Pick: Dont'a Hightower)
Needs: DB,LB,RB,WR,OL
Detroit finally gets to feel the euphoria of watching a highly-ranked player at a need position fall because the teams ahead of you are reaching. Usually it's the other way around and the Lions are the ones doing the reaching. In this case though, the Lions grab the second best tackle in the draft as he tumbled down the board, much like the Packers did with fellow Iowa tackle Bryan Bulaga. Reiff isn't quite as talented as Bulaga, but is just as polished and physical. Great pick for the Lions.
24.) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) David DeCastro G Stanford (Projected Pick: Courtney Upshaw)
Needs: OL,DL,LB,RB,DB
Perhaps no team in the league is better at letting the draft come to them than the Pittsburgh Steelers and this pick shows why. DeCastro has been compared to current Steelers guard Alan Faneca and may be the best guard prospect since Steve Hutchinson. To get a player at such a need position with this kind of value is a bit of luck, but Pittsburgh still had to make the pick. There may not be a better fit between player and team in the whole draft.
25.) New England Patriots (F/ Broncos) Dont'a Hightower LB Alabama (Projected Pick: Trade w/ Browns)
Needs:DE,DB,OL,RB,LB
An unusually aggressive Patriots draft nabs them a tough, physical linebacker for a team lacking the kind of hard-hitting mentality Hightower brings. Playing downhill and always looking to blow someone up, Hightower probably won't play middle linebacker because his coverage skills leave something to be desired. As as an outside 'backer and situational pass rusher, Hightower can be an impact player for the Patriots who are now loaded with former SEC linebackers.
26.) Houston Texans (10-6) Whitney Mercilus DE Illinois (Projected Pick: Kendall Wright)
Needs: S,WR,OL,DE,QB
The rich get richer as the Texans, much improved on defense a year ago, add a dynamic sackman from Illinois to help replace Mario Williams. The two are actually physically similar with long, lean bodies, although Williams is stronger and more powerful coming off the corner. Houston could use Mercilus as a 3-4 linebacker or end depending on the situation and with guys like J.J. Watt and Brooks Reed, he'll have time to develop after just one year as a starter in college.
27.) Cincinnati Bengals (F/ Patriots) Kevin Zeitler G Wisconsin (Projected Pick Cordy Glenn)
Needs: DB,G,WR,RB,LB
If the Bengals wanted a guard, I don't know why they didn't just take DeCastro at #21 instead of trading back to take Zeitler who is a solid player, but doesn't have the upside of DeCastro. That being said, the Bengals did acquire picks and were able to grab a smart, physical player who is the kind of mauler the Bengals love to have upfront. Solid pick, but it's hard to be too excited when you could have had one of the top 10 talents in this draft at the same position.
28.) Green Bay Packers (15-1) Nick Perry OLB USC (Projected Pick: Nick Perry)
Needs: OLB,DL,S,OL,CB
Cheeshead Nation may have been more excited about Courtney Upshaw, but when it comes to upside, Perry was a top 10 guy as a pass rusher. With explosive speed and power, Perry flashes the ability take move his 271 pound frame exceedingly well (He ran a 4.58 at the combine. That's unreal). Unfortunately, he'll disappear at times, whether it's conditioning or hustle or both. Even so, Green Bay has the coaches - Kevin Greene and Dom Capers - to maximize his vast talents. Great pick.
29.) Minnesota Vikings (F/ Ravens) Harrison Smith S Notre Dame (Projected Pick: None)
Needs: OL,DB,WR,DT,LB
This was a pick where the Vikings reached, but it's hard to blame them for it. Minnesota's defensive backfield is a shambles and Smith was the second best safety in the draft, even if he's rated as a second rounder. His range isn't great and his impact is more in the box, so he's not a great fit for the Cover 2 defense in Minnesota, but the secondary had to be improved somehow.
30.) San Francisco 49ers (13-3) A.J. Jenkins WR Illinois (Projected Pick:Amini Silatolu)
Needs: CB,OL,S,RB,DL,TE
If Bruce Irvin was a reach then this was a staggering, falling down grab. I guess if you're the 49ers you have Jenkins targeted as a big play slot receiver and you don't care about value. Jenkins had been a rising prospect, but I had him at #99 overall which means I didn't expect him to have his name called until Saturday. I think that tells you what I think of this pick.
31.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (F/ Broncos) Doug Martin RB Boise State (Projected Pick: Trade)
Needs: LB,DB,OL,TE,RB,WR
This pick changed hands twice before the Bucs snatched it up to take the versatile Boise running back. After trading back with Richardson off the board, it's not surprising that Greg Schiano would want a player with Martin's skill set for his offense. Martin can be a poor man's Ray Rice with his versatility and given that Rice played for Schiano at Rutgers, this pick makes a lot of sense.
32.) New York Giants (9-7) David Wilson RB Virginia Tech (Projected Pick: Levonte David)
Needs: OL,CB,LB,RB,WR
New York makes a somewhat surprising pick to end the round with the speedy running back from Virginia Tech. Wilson is actually very similar to Ahmad Bradshaw, down to the fumbling and durability concerns. New York did have a need at running back, but with a versatile offensive lineman like Cordy Glenn or a pass-catching tight end like Coby Fleener still on the board, this seems somewhat strange.
The top 10 players still available heading into tonight:
1.) Courtney Upshaw OLB Alabama (19)
2.) Cordy Glenn OT/G Georgia (21)
3.) Levonte David OLB Nebraska (25)
4.) Jonathan Martin OT Stanford (26)
5.) Devon Still DT Penn State (28)
6.) Coby Fleener TE Stanford (29)
7.) Peter Konz C Wisconsin (30)
8.) Stephen Hill WR Georgia Tech (32)
9.) Jerel Worthy DT Michigan State (33)
10.) Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama (35)
Showing posts with label Robert Griffin III. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Robert Griffin III. Show all posts
Friday, April 27, 2012
Thursday, April 26, 2012
2012 NFL Mock Draft: 4.0 (Final)
Minnesota has been on the clock for a couple weeks now with the top two picks all but made. The Vikings have tried desperately to trade out of that pick because they aren't sold on Matt Khalil and it's too high to take Morris Claiborne.
This could be one of the most active drafts in recent memory for trades because basically every team from the 3 to 16 wants to trade out.
That means teams unhappy with their slot could reach for players if they can't trade down, as well as teams in the 20's could trade up if their favorite player is falling.
Even in the last few days, there has been some major re-shuffling of the board with the late rising of guys like Chandler Jones and Shea McClellin, coupled with the falling of Quinton Coples and Courtney Upshaw (neither of which I understand).
It's the perfect year for the draft to be on prime time television because there could be high drama with trades and last-second moves.
I will project some trades, but obviously it can be impossible to predict.
1.) Indianapolis Colts (2-14) Andrew Luck QB Stanford (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 1)
Needs:OL,RB,LB,WR,CB,DT
Any discussion about Luck vs. RG3 here is preposterous. Even though we've known Luck was going to be the pick for over a year, people have wanted to debate the merits of each quarterback since the college football season ended. Luck has been compared to John Elway as a prospect. I don't know what else you need to know. Luck has taken a middling college program to two straight BCS Bowl games. In terms of what he was asked to do on the field and his production level, he's one of the most NFL-ready quarterback prospects ever, including Elway. Say what you want about his arm strength, but Luck is everything you could ask for from a franchise quarterback and is one of the few players who can handle walking into the shadow of Peyton Manning.
2.) Washington Redskins (F/ Rams) Robert Griffin III QB Baylor (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 2)
Needs: QB,DL,OL,TE,DB
We've known since January that Griffin III was the likely #2 pick, it was simply a matter of determining who would make that pick. The Redskins gave up an absolute bounty for RG3 and will take the future franchise quarterback. One of the lessons I learned from Cam Newton is that just because a quarterback isn't asked to make tight throws in NFL-sized windows, doesn't mean he can't. To me, RG3 made most of his throws to what would be considered wide-open receivers by NFL standards. On the other hand, his mechanics are solid and he really spins the ball well. Has the same kind of dual-threat weapons Cam does to keep defenses honest, which should open up some of those throwing lanes. This is a boom-or-bust pick, but if Griffin III reaches his potential, then what Washington gave up to get him will look like a steal.
3.) Minnesota Vikings (3-13) Matt Khalil OT USC (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 4)
Needs: OL,DB,WR,DT,LB
I've never seen more subterfuge around the #3 pick before, but maybe it has to do with the fact that everyone knows who is going 1 and 2. Minnesota has made it clear they'd like to trade out of this pick, but unless Tampa or St. Louis wants to leapfrog the Browns to get Trent Richardson (the Jets are also reportedly hot on the former Alabama back) the Vikings are stuck here. In the last few days Morris Claiborne's name has been hot here and Justin Blackmon has re-surfaced as a potential target with some GM's believing that's where Minnesota will go. To me, the Vikings aren't dumb enough (notice I said enough) to show their cards so overtly. Khalil is the smart pick and I expect him to be the pick.
4.) Cleveland Browns (4-12) Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 6)
Needs: WR,OL,S,RB,QB,OLB
While Cleveland reportedly loves Richardson, I'm not sold that Mike Holmgren and the staff are positive Richardson has enough value here to warrant a top pick. This could be a potential landing spot for a team like New York looking to trade up and land Richardson. At #17, the Browns could still get Kendall Wright and they have Atlanta's pick at #22. Richardson is the better player, but Blackmon's value is inflated by the position he plays. Not every team sees Blackmon as a legitimate #1 receiver because of his athletic limitations, but I think those question marks are vastly overstated. Cleveland lacks playmakers and in today's NFL even a solid #2 receiver has a bigger impact than a legitimate #1 running back. I think the Browns know that.
5.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12) Trent Richardson RB Alabama (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 3)
Needs: LB,DB,OL,TE,RB,WR
Tampa would run up to the podium if Trent Richardson is still available at #5. The Bucs staff love him and he apparently is equally excited about playing for the team. Greg Schiano wants to run the football and Richardson is the best running back prospect in the last five years. Talk about a punishing backfield with LeGarrette Blount and Richardson in the backfield and Josh Freeman under center. Those guys eat their Wheaties. Morris Claiborne might be tough to pass on in a division with Brees, Ryan and Newton, but Claiborne is an overrated prospect and I think that's part of why Minnesota has shifted its strategy toward a Blackmon smokescreen. This is the right move and is one I hope, for Tampa's sake, they make.
6.) St. Louis Rams (F/ Redskins)Morris Claiborne CB LSU (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 5)
Needs: WR,DB,OL,OLB,DT
I wouldn't be surprised to see Carolina trade up into this spot if Claiborne falls. St. Louis covets Fletcher Cox, the Mississippi defensive tackle, and could probably get him or Michael Brockers at #9 in that trade. The Panthers desperately need to upgrade their defensive backfield and it wouldn't take much to move up the three spots. I think Claiborne is the pick if he falls, whether it's the Rams or Panthers making the selection. Claiborne's athletic talents are unquestionable, but his instincts aren't outstanding and he wins late in the route, rather than early. If he watches tape and really studies, he can be an excellent corner, but I'm not convinced he can be Champ Bailey. I see him closer to Tramon Williams, someone who can make big plays when they guess right, but burned when they guess wrong.
7.) Philadelphia Eagles (F/ Jaguars) Fletcher Cox DT Mississippi State (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 8)
**Projected Trade**
Needs:OL,LB,DT,S,RB,WR
Jacksonville really wants to move down and Philadelphia really wants to move up to get Fletcher Cox. If the Eagles want the dominated SEC defensive tackle, they'll have to move ahead of Carolina who will almost certainly take him if he's on he board. Jacksonville worked out middle first round defensive ends like Nick Perry and Chandler Jones, which could mean they have one of those players in mind in a potential trade down in the draft. For the Eagles, they basically get a bigger, stronger, younger version of Cullen Jenkins, whom Philly already has on its roster. Cox is the kind of powerful interior force who could improve this defense and take up blockers so those 'Wide 9' ends can get after the quarterback. Philly's pass rush would be scary good.
8.) Miami Dolphins (6-10) Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 18)
Needs: OL,QB,WR,LB,TE,S
Given all of the hype surrounding this pick, the Dolphins now have no choice but to make it. Tannehill was a second round prospect until Matt Barkley and Landry Jones returned to school and now Tannehill will go in the top 10. That just shows you how highly valued a franchise quarterback is in the NFL. I've concerned about the accuracy and mental toughness, but Joe Philbin has had a huge influence on Aaron Rodgers and Mike Sherman was Tannehill's head coach at A&M. There's no better situation for a player to flourish than that. The Dolphins have some other needs and probably could have gotten by with David Gerrard/Matt Moore for one more year, but if this is the player the Dolphins feel they have to draft, then it doesn't matter where they're picking, Tannehill has to be drafted.
9.) Carolina Panthers (6-10) Luke Kuechley MLB Boston College (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 10)
Needs: CB,WR,S,LB, DL
This pick comes to three players: Kuechley, Stephon Gilmore and Michael Brockers. A fourth option would be a trade with a team like Dallas who wants to snag Mark Barron ahead of the Buffalo Bills who apparently have significant interest. Of the three players, Kuechley makes both the passing and rushing defense better, where as Gilmore and Brockers only help in one area. He's the best player of that group and would be a terrific leader on that defense. Carolina was at its best with that group of outstanding linebackers in the mid 90's and haven't had impact players at the position since. Quinton Coples could be a sleeper here and given the geographic connection, might be my pick if I had to make it.
10.) Buffalo Bills (6-10) Stephon Gilmore CB South Carolina (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 20)
Needs: OL,WR,LB,DB,TE
Buffalo will be burning the phone lines trying to get Dallas to trade into this spot to snag Mark Barron before the Chiefs can. I wouldn't be at all surprised though if the Bills just went ahead and took Barron if the Cowboys couldn't offer a quality package. Buffalo has paid close attention to the first round corners in this draft and either Dre Kirkpatrick or Stephon Gilmore could be a consideration here. When you play New England twice a year, you need quality defensive backs and Gilmore has been a late riser in this draft. His best fit is in a zone coverage system where he can use his instincts and intelligence to read receivers and break on the ball. Don't be surprised to see Buffalo trade up if Matt Khalil starts to fall either.
11.) Kansas City Chiefs (7-9) Mark Barron S Alabama (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 17)
Needs: WR,TE,OL,NT,LB
Michael Floyd or David DeCastro make a lot of sense here as well, but the Chiefs are apparently very much in love with Barron's skills and safety is a huge position of need with Eric Berry coming off a serious knee injury. Barron is a smart, physical player with great intensity and leadership skills. New coach Romeo Crennell may immediately see Lawyer Milloy when he sees Barron play. K.C. is rumored to be extremely interested in Dont'a Hightower as well, but Barron is the better value here. If they truly covet Hightower, there's no reason they couldn't trade down with Dallas and take the Alabama linebacker three spots later.
12.) Seattle Seahawks (7-9) Quinton Coples DL North Carolina (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 7)
Needs: OL,LB,CB,TE,WR
Take your pick of defensive lineman here. Rumors of Seattle's interest in Syracuse's Chandler Jones are rampant, but Coples has better versatility, able to play tackle or end for the Seahawks. Coples reminds me a lot of Justin Tuck with his pass rush skills from any position along the defensive line. With Seattle's needs at linebacker, Jones or South Carolina's Melvin Ingram could be considered in that hybird role Pete Carrol loves to use. Coples has more potential than either of those players however, and even though Coples is a potential bust, his 'boom' is the greatest of any player left on the board.
13.) Arizona Cardinals (8-8) Riley Reiff OT Iowa (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 11)
Needs: OL,OLB,WR,DB,RB
My guess is that when the draft process starter, the Cardinals thought they had no chance of landing Riley Reiff, the second best offensive tackle prospect in the draft. At one point, there was talk Tampa might take the former Iowa offensive lineman at #5. Melvin Ingram will be tempting and I think David DeCastro is a better offensive line prospect overall, but Reiff plays a position where it's harder to find top-line talent. His physical style is something this Cardinal team lacks and he'd be an asset to Kevin Kolb's development in the passing game. Michael Floyd would be extremely temping and the Cards are said to be extremely interested in taking him. I wouldn't be shocked if they did, but Reiff makes much more sense and has better value here.
14.) Dallas Cowboys (8-8) Michael Brockers DT LSU (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 15)
Needs: OL,DL,DB,WR,TE
Dallas will have to trade up if they want Barron. If they can't swing a trade, the pick comes down to David DeCastro, Michael Brockers or Dre Kirkpatrick. I have DeCastro as the highest rated prospect and Kirkpatrick plays the highest impact position, but my feeling is Dallas may not view Kirkpatrick as a Day 1 starter, while Brockers is. As a 5 technique 3-4 end, Brockers has a Richard Seymour ceiling. In two or three years, he could be one of the 10 best defensive lineman in the game because his physical skills in terms of his ability to manipulate blockers and hold the point of attack are elite. Signing Brandon Carr from Kansas City means the need for Kirkpatrick may have been blunted. Brockers is a much better prospect than Marcus Spears, a former LSU tackle who the Cowboys took in the first round several years ago.
15.) Jacksonville Jaguars (F/ Eagles) Melvin Ingram DE/DT South Carolina (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 12)
Needs: WR,DE,OL,DB,RB
I think the Jags are fully willing to take Chandler Jones or Nick Perry if they can trade down to the middle of the first. In this case though, Ingram falls and I can't see the Jaguars passing. While I'm not as high on Ingram as others, his versatility and athleticism are outstanding and he can be effective as an end, tackle, or even a linebacker at times. I'm concerned about his size and short arms at the next level, particularly in a 4-3 defense, but he played in a big-time conference in college and was one of the best defensive players in football. I think this is just right for him and for a risk-averse franchise where character is important, Ingram is exactly what the Jags are looking for.
16.) New York Jets (8-8) Michael Floyd WR Notre Dame (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 13)
Needs: OLB,OL,WR,DL,RB
Jet fans would love to see Melvin Ingram fall to them here, but it seems unlikely. Chandler Jones or Nick Perry would make sense, as would DeCastro, but Floyd is the big name with the big impact. You bring in Tim Tebow to make headlines and add Michael Floyd to help your offense score points. Plus, with the range Floyd has, those Tebow underthrows and Sanchez overthrows might actually have a chance of being completed. New York is extremely interested in trading up to get Trent Richardson and has even contacted Richardson about potentially doing so. They would have to give up quite a big to get him and I'm not sure they'll be willing to offer enough to get a deal done.
17.) Bengals (F/ Oakland) Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 14)
Needs: DB,G,WR,RB,LB
This is a case where arguably the Bengals biggest need position is the same as the highest rated player on the board, but you'd understand if they passed. David DeCastro is a perfect fit for the Bengals who desperately need help along the interior, but Dre Kirkpatrick plays a greater impact position. His physical play is exactly what the Bengals want from their corners and with depth concerns at the position, Kirkpatrick would see plenty of time on the field as a rookie. I wouldn't be surprised though, if DeCastro is the pick given his extremely high value here. There's no chance Kirkpatrick falls to the Bengals at #21, but it's certainly possible that a player like Cordy Glenn, who can play guard or tackle, is available. In terms of the trade-off, you'd rather have Kirkpatrick and Glenn than DeCastro and then reaching for a lower tier corner.
18.) San Diego Chargers (8-8) David DeCastro G Stanford (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 9)
Needs: DL,LB,OL,DB,WR
San Diego could end up deciding between the second-best lineman in the draft and whomever they think is the best pass rusher left. San Diego isn't going to force it here, and I think they'll take DeCastro who could step in right away as a starter on an offensive line that has really struggled lately. DeCastro isn't massive, but the Chargers aren't going to be a power running team anyway, particularly with some of the fire power San Diego amassed in the offseason. Particularly given that the best pass rushers available at this point project better in a 4-3 defense, I'd expect if a player like DeCastro falls, he'll be a welcome site for San Diego.
19.) Chicago Bears (8-8) Whitney Mercilus DE Illinois (Pos. Rank: 5, Overall Rank: 24)
Needs: OL,CB,DE,TE,LB
For some reason, Chicago has decided its top need was at defensive end, even though their offensive line was a train wreck last year and they play in a division with Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson et al., so a defensive back would be nice here. On the other hand, the Bears can feel the window of this defense closing, meaning they'd like to upgrade it with an influx of young talent. I'm fine with Chandler Jones or Andre Branch here as well, although I think Courtney Upshaw is the best pass rusher left on the board. Mercilus was a one-year wonder at Illinois, but had one of the most productive seasons in college football history for a defensive end and with a chance to learn at the feet of Julius Peppers, could turn out to be a monster in the NFL.
20.) Tennessee Titans (9-7) Dontari Poe DT Memphis (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 16)
Needs: WR,CB,DL,TE,OL
A lot of mocks have the Titans going with Cordy Glenn or an end like Nick Perry, but Poe makes a ton of sense for a number of reasons. The first is that the Titans pass rush isn't very good and a big body like Poe would eat up space in the middle, freeing up defenders around him. Second, Poe has an extremely high ceiling despite underwhelming product at Memphis. I don't see Glenn much differently than I see Poe: big, strong, underachieving. Poe, however, is a much rarer player with his speed and quickness inside. In terms of raw ability, Poe has as many physical tools as you'll find in this draft. To me, Nick Perry or Courtney Upshaw make more sense than Glenn, but that doesn't mean Tennessee won't take him (I've been wrong before).
21.) Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) Cordy Glenn G/T Georgia (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 21)
Needs: DB,G,WR,RB,LB
This is the scenario I described above: Cincinnati takes care of its two biggest needs while maximizing the value of their picks. The Begnals love massive lineman and Glenn fits the bill at 6-5 and nearly 350 pounds. His lack of lateral quickness precludes him from being anything but a right tackle at the next level and he seems better suited to play guard. Line him up next to Andre Smith and suddenly you an incredibly strong right side of your offensive line. Kendall Wright makes sense here as well and teams are apparently lining up to take the former Baylor Bear wide receiver. I can see the Bengals biting if Glenn is off the board here.
22.) Cleveland Browns (F/ Atlanta) Jonathan Martin OT Stanford (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 26)
Needs: WR,OL,S,RB,QB,OLB
Cleveland is known to be extremely high on Brandon Weeden to the point they'd consider taking him at #22. There's also scuttlebutt that they'll use their high second round pick to trade back into the first round and assure themselves a chance to draft the Oklahoma State quarterback. Doug Martin has been a popular name in mock drafts as well with a late push into first round consideration. I think offensive line is much more likely, particularly with the drop-off at tackle after the first round. If the Browns really want a running back, there isn't a substantial difference between the second through fifth ranked running backs in this class. If they like Weeden enough to trade back into the first, then draft Martin to protect him and figure out how to snag him later.
23.) Detroit Lions (10-6) Dont'a Hightower ILB Alabama (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 23)
Needs: DB,LB,RB,WR,OL
I've seen enough permutations of this pick to believe the Lions are simply sitting back and waiting for the right player to come to them. If they're concerned about signing Cliff Avril to a long-term deal, Courtney Upshaw and Nick Perry immediately become considerations. To me though, Hightower's power and tenacity are exactly what head coach Jim Schwartz is looking for from his middle linebacker. A dominating, downhill linebacker, Hightower also has some pass rush ability and could mitigate some of the concerns left from losing Avril. I've been on Hightower since since sophomore season and he's one of my favorite players in this draft.
24.) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) Courtney Upshaw LB Alabama (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 19)
Needs: OL,DL,LB,RB,DB
To me, this is exactly the kind of pick I'd expect the Steelers to make. We know they have needs along the offensive and defensive lines, but the value isn't there with this pick. Some scouts thought Upshaw could play inside in a 3-4 defense coming into the season and after a sub-par postseason, there are some questions as to whether or not Upshaw is athletic enough to do that. I don't think it matters to Pittsburgh who could use Upshaw all over the field. The former Crimson Tide rush end was perhaps the most dominating defensive player in the best conference in football last year and that has to count for something. He has more versatility than people believe and no one is better as drafting the best player available than the Pittsburgh Steelers.
25.) Denver Broncos (8-8) Doug Martin RB Boise State (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 32)
Needs: WR,DB,DT,TE,RB
With needs at receiver, defensive line and defensive back, Martin is a little bit of a luxury pick here. If I were John Elway and John Fox, I'd be taking Kendall Wright, but because Martin has great versatility as a receiver out of the backfield and as a pass blocker, he makes sense here for Denver. Peyton Manning was at his best when he had Edgerrin James to pick up blitzers and to use out of the backfield. Coby Fleener and Devon Still could be temping here as well, but Martin sounds like the direction Denver is leaning.
26.) Houston Texans (10-6) Kendall Wright WR Baylor (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 32)
Needs: S,WR,OL,DE,QB
Best possible case scenario for the Texans. Wright is an ideal fit alongside Andre Johnson in this offense and will be used extensively in play-action to get over the top and take the top off of defenses. Wright's disappointing combine workouts were a red flag, but his stock is rising after impressive pro day workouts. Coby Fleener could be a good pick here as well and the Texans can't go wrong. If they want a first round pass catcher, they'll have a chance to get one here. Stephen Hill would even have value here if Wright comes off the board sooner.
27.)New England Patriots (F/ New Orleans) Chandler Jones DE Syracuse (Pos. Rank: 5, Overall Rank: 34)
Needs:DE,DB,OL,RB,LB
The best defensive lineman on the board will be picked here. Some mocks have Syracuse's Chandler Jones as high as #12, but I tend to be extremely skeptical of a guy who is a second round pick until three days before the draft and then suddenly he's a top 15 pick. That being said, Jones has outstanding pass rush potential and is everything you could want from a defensive end. He's actually similar to the Patriots now-departed defensive end Andre Carter in the way he's built, with long, lean arms. His quickness off the edge is his biggest asset and he may struggle a little setting the edge in the NFL. Mike Mayock believes Jones could be the best defensive player in this draft. That would be quite something if the Patriots could get him at #27.
28.) Green Bay Packers (15-1) Nick Perry OLB USC (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 22)
Needs: OLB,DL,S,OL,CB
Southern Cal' has been good to Green Bay when it comes to picking outside linebackers and Perry is not just the best pass rusher on the board left, he's the best overall player. We know Ted Thompson will go with best available over biggest need, but he has a chance to get both with this pick. Perry is a freak athlete, a 271 pound former defensive end who runs a 4.64 40. Green Bay may ask him to slim down a little to play outside since Perry put on an extra 10 pounds of muscle to show he can play the 4-3 end at the next level. He'll have to work on his coverage skills, but the average match up with a rush linebacker isn't going to end well for the defense anyway. Getting a player who lead the Pac-12 in sacks is the impact Green Bay needs, even if he's a liability in coverage.
29.) Baltimore Ravens (12-4) Stephen Hill WR Georgia Tech (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 31)
Needs: OL,OLB,DB,RB,WR
Torrey Smith was outstanding as Baltimore's deep threat last season, but the Ravens still aren't very explosive outside of Smith's big play ability. Hill wowed scouts at the combine with a blistering 40 yard time, but his limited production and polish coming out of Georgia Tech's option offense is worrisome. With another year of development and a full offseason for Smith, the Ravens could rely on Smith to do more than just run deep, while allowing Hill to step into that role. Suddenly, the Ravens would have one of the fastest and most explosive wide receiving duos in the league.
30.) San Francisco 49ers (13-3) Amini Silatolu G Midwestern State (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 53)
Needs: CB,OL,S,RB,DL,TE
Some scouts see shades of Larry Allen when they watch Silatolu play. One of the things about small school players is you can't be sure they're great because they dominate, but you can be sure they stink if they don't. Silatolu falls into the former category and was a monster at Midwestern State, the kind of physical domination that made you wonder how he didn't play legitimate Division 1 football. So that begs the question, why didn't he? He is certainly a bigger risk at the position than Wisconsin's Kevin Zeitler, but teams see the talent and physical ability and the potential is overwhelmingly apparent. A boom-or-bust prospect who has made his way in the first round. If I'm in the San Francisco war room, I can make a pick like this because the team has so few holes. If it works, it's outstanding, if it doesn't, you're still a favorite in the NFC.
31.) Cleveland Browns (F/ New England) Brandon Weeden QB Oklahoma State (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 45)
**Project Trade**
Needs: WR,OL,S,RB,QB,OLB
More than likely, the Patriots will be happy to trade out of this pick for a team interested in Brandon Weeden. I expect the Browns are the most likely to try and get back into the first to nab him. Fortunately, it may not take too much to trade up the six spots to make sure they get the quarterback they're looking for. If Weeden were 22, I think there's no question he'd considered a first round quarterback and in some ways his age (28) is a plus because he can walk into a locker room and command respect immediately. Weeden is NFL-ready and if you pair him with his former receiver in this offense, they don't have to spend a minute developing chemistry. The value isn't great here, but I think for the Browns it makes sense if they've already taken Blackmon.
32.) New York Giants (9-7) Levonte David LB Nebraska
Needs: OL,CB,LB,RB,WR
Coby Fleener will get a long look here to be sure, especially given the last team the Giants played has the best tight end int he game. David, though, plays a greater position of need and is a better value at this point. The former Cornhusker is one of the most underrated players in the draft and is an absolute stud playmaker at the position. If he weighed 15 more pounds, he'd be a top 20 pick in my opinion, but his instincts are terrific and he's the kind of athletic linebacker the Giants have been trying to find.
Round 2
33.) St. Louis Rams (2-14) Coby Fleener TE Stanford
Needs: WR,DB,OL,OLB,DT
St. Louis breaks Indy's heart by taking the best tight end in the draft who happens to be Andrew Luck's former teammate
34.) Indianapolis Colts (2-14) Devon Still DT Penn State
Needs:OL,RB,LB,WR,CB,DT
Colts have to improve 29th ranked rush defense from last season with one of the best run defenders in the draft.
35.) Minnesota Vikings (3-13) Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama
Needs: OL,DB,WR,DT,LB
This is why you take Khalil at #3: you can still get a first round caliber corner here. You can't get the same value at tackle.
36.)New England Patriots (F/ Cleveland) Jerel Worthy DT Michigan State
**Projected Trade**
Needs:DE,DB,OL,RB,LB
Re-signing Dan Koppen allows the Pats to nab the powerful interior rusher from Michigan State to boost the defensive front even further.
37.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12) Peter Konz C Wisconsin
Needs: LB,DB,OL,TE,RB,WR
Without a viable center on the roster, Tampa finds the cornerstone center to lead their offense which now centers around Trent Richardson.
38.) Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11) David Wilson RB Virginia Tech
Needs: WR,DE,OL,DB,RB
Alshon Jeffery is too big a risk to Jags, so Wilson gives Jacksonville terrific 1-2 punch at running back.
39.) St. Louis Rams (2-14) Alshon Jeffery WR South Carolina
Needs: WR,DB,OL,OLB,DT
Jeff Fisher not afraid to take most talented player on the board at a position of need, despite red flags. Jeffery will be terrific with a legitimate quarterback.
40.) Carolina Panthers (6-10) Brandon Boykin CB Georgia
Needs: CB,WR,S,LB, DL
Best defensive back on the board would help improve Carolina's abysmal passing defense, plus could give Steve Smith a break in the return game.
41.) Buffalo Bills (6-10) Kevin Zeitler G Wisconsin
Needs: OL,WR,LB,DB,TE
Biggest need gets addressed with polished, physical guard from Wisconsin.
42.) Miami Dolphins (6-10) Rueben Randle WR LSU
Needs: OL,QB,WR,LB,TE,S
If you're going to pick Tannehill, you better get someone for him to throw to. Raw, talented Randle will need time to develop, but has big-time upside.
43.) Seattle Seahawks (7-9) Mike Adams OT Ohio State
Needs: OL,LB,CB,TE,WR
Adams might be second best left tackle prospect in the draft and Seattle needs serious help along the offensive line.
44.) Kansas City Chiefs (7-9) Dwayne Allen TE Clemson
Needs: WR,TE,OL,NT,LB
Chiefs offense has limited weapons and Allen would help in both phases of the offense. Good value here.
45.) Dallas Cowboys (8-8) Trumaine Johnson CB Montana
Needs: OL,DL,DB,WR,TE
Versatile FBS defensive back would be a major upgrade for this struggling Dallas defense.
46.) Philadelphia Eagles (8-8) Lamer Miller RB Miami (Fla.)
Needs:OL,LB,DT,S,RB,WR
Philly gets a back to lighten the burden for LeSean McCoy and provide much-needed depth at the position.
47.) New York Jets (8-8) Andre Branch OLB/DE Clemson
Needs: OLB,OL,WR,DL,RB
Major pass rush upgrade for the Jets who failed to generate pressure last year without blitzing.
48.) New England Patriots (F/ Oakland) Harrison Smith S Notre Dame
Needs:DE,DB,OL,RB,LB Physical box safety heading to New England, a team who was pulling guys off the street to play in the secondary last year.
49.) San Diego Chargers (8-8) Zach Brown LB North Carolina
Needs: DL,LB,OL,DB,WR
Not an ideal fit for the Chargers, but Brown is lightening fast and could learn from underrated rusher Antwan Barnes.
50.) Chicago Bears (8-8) Bobbie Massie OT Mississippi
Needs: OL,CB,DE,TE,LB
Offensive line remains a problem for the Bears and if Gabe Carimi gets healthy, Massie will have some time to develop.
51.) Jacksonville Jaguars (F/ Philadelphia) Brandon Thompson DT Clemson
**Projected Trade**
Needs: WR,DE,OL,DB,RB
Jags get a defensive line upgrade once considered to be a first round talent as part of Eagles trade for Fletcher Cox.
52.) Tennessee Titans (9-7) Shea McClellin DE Boise State
Needs: WR,CB,DL,TE,OL
Tennessee loves to get winners and McClellin is a relentless edge rusher with an excellent college background.
53.) Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) Chris Polk RB Washington
Needs: DB,G,WR,RB,LB
Cinci gets solid value with the versatile Polk to go with the Bengals' potent, young offensive core.
54.) Detroit Lions (10-6) Mitchell Schwartz OT California
Needs: DB,LB,RB,WR,OL
Lions need to do a better job of opening holes in the run game and protecting Matthew Stafford, so getting the best available offensive lineman should help do that.
55.) Atlanta Falcons (10-6) Vinny Curry DE Marshall
Needs: OL,DB,DE,WR,TE
Falcons desperately need a pass rusher to generate pressure opposite John Abraham and Curry is a good fit for 4-3 scheme.
56.) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) Kendall Reyes DT Connecticut
Needs: OL,DL,LB,RB,DB
It would be a gift if a fringe first round talent like Reyes fell all the way to Steelers here.
57.) Denver Broncos (8-8) Kirk Cousins QB Michigan State
Needs: WR,DB,DT,TE,RB
Wouldn't be popular with Peyton Manning, but Broncos get QB of the future who (like Tebow) is proven winner.
58.) Houston Texans (10-6) Bobby Wagner ILB Utah State
Needs: S,WR,OL,DE,QB
Athletic replacement for departed Demeco Ryans and Houston continues to build a dominating defense.
59.) Green Bay Packers (15-1) Jared Crick DL Nebraska
Needs: OLB,DL,S,OL,CB
Packers get defensive line upgrade they desperate need to pair with first round stud Nick Perry.
60.) Baltimore Ravens (12-4) Josh Robinson CB Central Florida
Needs: OL,OLB,DB,RB,WR
Speedy corner would be terrific nickelback for Ravens in a division full of terrific young receivers.
61.) San Francisco 49ers (13-3) Jamell Flemming CB Oklahoma
Needs: CB,OL,S,RB,DL,TE
Thin 49ers secondary gets upgrade with rising Oklahoma corner who is excellent in man coverage.
62.) New England Patriots (13-3)Mohamed Sanu WR Rutgers
Needs:DE,DB,OL,RB,LBHighly-productive college receiver would give Patriots a young weapon outside to pair with their terrific tandem of tight ends.
63.) New York Giants (9-7) Brian Quick WR Appalachian State
Needs: OL,CB,LB,RB,WR
Raw receiver would have time to develop for Giants, could eventually be a terrific trio with Cruz and Nicks.
Round 3
64.)Indianapolis Colts - Orson Charles TE Georgia
65.) St. Louis Rams - Kelechi Osemele OL Iowa State
66.) Minnesota Vikings - Ronnell Lewis OLB/DE Oklahoma
67. Cleveland Browns - Bruce Irvin OLB West Virginia
68.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Chase Minnifield CB Virginia
69.) Washington Redskins - Alameda Ta'amu NT Washington
70.) Jacksonville Jaguars - Joe Adams WR Arkansas
71.) Buffalo Bills - Zebrie Sanders OT Florida State
72.) Miami Dolphins - LaMichael James RB Oregon
73.) Dolphins F/ Chicago - Markelle Martin S Oklahoma State
74.) Kansas City Chiefs - Brock Osweiler QB Arizona State
75.) Seattle Seahawks - Jayron Hosley CB Virginia Tech
76.) Texans F/ Philadelphia - Jeff Allen OL Illinois
77.) New York Jets - Casey Heyward CB Vanderbilt
78.) San Diego Chargers - Jonathan Massoquoi OLB Troy
79.) Chicago Bears - Chris Givens WR Wake Forest
80.) Arizona Cardinals - Nick Toon WR Wisconsin
81.) Dallas Cowboys - Marvin Jones WR California
82.) Tennessee Titans - Brandon Brooks G Miami (OH)
83.) Cincinnati Bengals - Cameron Johnson DE Virginia
84.) Atlanta Falcons - Mike Martin DT Michigan
85.) Detroit Lions - Mychal Kendricks LB California
86.) Pittsburgh Steelers - Tyronne Crawford DE Boise State
87.) Denver Broncos - Dwight Bentley CB LA-Lafeyette
88.) Eagles F/ Houson - George Iloka S Boise State
89.) New Orleans Saints - Brandon Washington G Miami (Fla.)
90.) Green Bay Packers - Isaiah Pead RB Cincinnati
91.) Baltimore Ravens - Ben Jones C Georgia
92.) San Francisco 49ers - Trevor Guyton DL California
93.) New England Patriots - Matt McCants OT UAB
94.) New York Giants - Ledarius Green TE LA-Lafeyette
95.) Oakland Raiders (Comp. Pick) - Nigel Bradham LB Florida State
This could be one of the most active drafts in recent memory for trades because basically every team from the 3 to 16 wants to trade out.
That means teams unhappy with their slot could reach for players if they can't trade down, as well as teams in the 20's could trade up if their favorite player is falling.
Even in the last few days, there has been some major re-shuffling of the board with the late rising of guys like Chandler Jones and Shea McClellin, coupled with the falling of Quinton Coples and Courtney Upshaw (neither of which I understand).
It's the perfect year for the draft to be on prime time television because there could be high drama with trades and last-second moves.
I will project some trades, but obviously it can be impossible to predict.
1.) Indianapolis Colts (2-14) Andrew Luck QB Stanford (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 1)
Needs:OL,RB,LB,WR,CB,DT
Any discussion about Luck vs. RG3 here is preposterous. Even though we've known Luck was going to be the pick for over a year, people have wanted to debate the merits of each quarterback since the college football season ended. Luck has been compared to John Elway as a prospect. I don't know what else you need to know. Luck has taken a middling college program to two straight BCS Bowl games. In terms of what he was asked to do on the field and his production level, he's one of the most NFL-ready quarterback prospects ever, including Elway. Say what you want about his arm strength, but Luck is everything you could ask for from a franchise quarterback and is one of the few players who can handle walking into the shadow of Peyton Manning.
2.) Washington Redskins (F/ Rams) Robert Griffin III QB Baylor (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 2)
Needs: QB,DL,OL,TE,DB
We've known since January that Griffin III was the likely #2 pick, it was simply a matter of determining who would make that pick. The Redskins gave up an absolute bounty for RG3 and will take the future franchise quarterback. One of the lessons I learned from Cam Newton is that just because a quarterback isn't asked to make tight throws in NFL-sized windows, doesn't mean he can't. To me, RG3 made most of his throws to what would be considered wide-open receivers by NFL standards. On the other hand, his mechanics are solid and he really spins the ball well. Has the same kind of dual-threat weapons Cam does to keep defenses honest, which should open up some of those throwing lanes. This is a boom-or-bust pick, but if Griffin III reaches his potential, then what Washington gave up to get him will look like a steal.
3.) Minnesota Vikings (3-13) Matt Khalil OT USC (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 4)
Needs: OL,DB,WR,DT,LB
I've never seen more subterfuge around the #3 pick before, but maybe it has to do with the fact that everyone knows who is going 1 and 2. Minnesota has made it clear they'd like to trade out of this pick, but unless Tampa or St. Louis wants to leapfrog the Browns to get Trent Richardson (the Jets are also reportedly hot on the former Alabama back) the Vikings are stuck here. In the last few days Morris Claiborne's name has been hot here and Justin Blackmon has re-surfaced as a potential target with some GM's believing that's where Minnesota will go. To me, the Vikings aren't dumb enough (notice I said enough) to show their cards so overtly. Khalil is the smart pick and I expect him to be the pick.
4.) Cleveland Browns (4-12) Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 6)
Needs: WR,OL,S,RB,QB,OLB
While Cleveland reportedly loves Richardson, I'm not sold that Mike Holmgren and the staff are positive Richardson has enough value here to warrant a top pick. This could be a potential landing spot for a team like New York looking to trade up and land Richardson. At #17, the Browns could still get Kendall Wright and they have Atlanta's pick at #22. Richardson is the better player, but Blackmon's value is inflated by the position he plays. Not every team sees Blackmon as a legitimate #1 receiver because of his athletic limitations, but I think those question marks are vastly overstated. Cleveland lacks playmakers and in today's NFL even a solid #2 receiver has a bigger impact than a legitimate #1 running back. I think the Browns know that.
5.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12) Trent Richardson RB Alabama (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 3)
Needs: LB,DB,OL,TE,RB,WR
Tampa would run up to the podium if Trent Richardson is still available at #5. The Bucs staff love him and he apparently is equally excited about playing for the team. Greg Schiano wants to run the football and Richardson is the best running back prospect in the last five years. Talk about a punishing backfield with LeGarrette Blount and Richardson in the backfield and Josh Freeman under center. Those guys eat their Wheaties. Morris Claiborne might be tough to pass on in a division with Brees, Ryan and Newton, but Claiborne is an overrated prospect and I think that's part of why Minnesota has shifted its strategy toward a Blackmon smokescreen. This is the right move and is one I hope, for Tampa's sake, they make.
6.) St. Louis Rams (F/ Redskins)Morris Claiborne CB LSU (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 5)
Needs: WR,DB,OL,OLB,DT
I wouldn't be surprised to see Carolina trade up into this spot if Claiborne falls. St. Louis covets Fletcher Cox, the Mississippi defensive tackle, and could probably get him or Michael Brockers at #9 in that trade. The Panthers desperately need to upgrade their defensive backfield and it wouldn't take much to move up the three spots. I think Claiborne is the pick if he falls, whether it's the Rams or Panthers making the selection. Claiborne's athletic talents are unquestionable, but his instincts aren't outstanding and he wins late in the route, rather than early. If he watches tape and really studies, he can be an excellent corner, but I'm not convinced he can be Champ Bailey. I see him closer to Tramon Williams, someone who can make big plays when they guess right, but burned when they guess wrong.
7.) Philadelphia Eagles (F/ Jaguars) Fletcher Cox DT Mississippi State (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 8)
**Projected Trade**
Needs:OL,LB,DT,S,RB,WR
Jacksonville really wants to move down and Philadelphia really wants to move up to get Fletcher Cox. If the Eagles want the dominated SEC defensive tackle, they'll have to move ahead of Carolina who will almost certainly take him if he's on he board. Jacksonville worked out middle first round defensive ends like Nick Perry and Chandler Jones, which could mean they have one of those players in mind in a potential trade down in the draft. For the Eagles, they basically get a bigger, stronger, younger version of Cullen Jenkins, whom Philly already has on its roster. Cox is the kind of powerful interior force who could improve this defense and take up blockers so those 'Wide 9' ends can get after the quarterback. Philly's pass rush would be scary good.
8.) Miami Dolphins (6-10) Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 18)
Needs: OL,QB,WR,LB,TE,S
Given all of the hype surrounding this pick, the Dolphins now have no choice but to make it. Tannehill was a second round prospect until Matt Barkley and Landry Jones returned to school and now Tannehill will go in the top 10. That just shows you how highly valued a franchise quarterback is in the NFL. I've concerned about the accuracy and mental toughness, but Joe Philbin has had a huge influence on Aaron Rodgers and Mike Sherman was Tannehill's head coach at A&M. There's no better situation for a player to flourish than that. The Dolphins have some other needs and probably could have gotten by with David Gerrard/Matt Moore for one more year, but if this is the player the Dolphins feel they have to draft, then it doesn't matter where they're picking, Tannehill has to be drafted.
9.) Carolina Panthers (6-10) Luke Kuechley MLB Boston College (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 10)
Needs: CB,WR,S,LB, DL
This pick comes to three players: Kuechley, Stephon Gilmore and Michael Brockers. A fourth option would be a trade with a team like Dallas who wants to snag Mark Barron ahead of the Buffalo Bills who apparently have significant interest. Of the three players, Kuechley makes both the passing and rushing defense better, where as Gilmore and Brockers only help in one area. He's the best player of that group and would be a terrific leader on that defense. Carolina was at its best with that group of outstanding linebackers in the mid 90's and haven't had impact players at the position since. Quinton Coples could be a sleeper here and given the geographic connection, might be my pick if I had to make it.
10.) Buffalo Bills (6-10) Stephon Gilmore CB South Carolina (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 20)
Needs: OL,WR,LB,DB,TE
Buffalo will be burning the phone lines trying to get Dallas to trade into this spot to snag Mark Barron before the Chiefs can. I wouldn't be at all surprised though if the Bills just went ahead and took Barron if the Cowboys couldn't offer a quality package. Buffalo has paid close attention to the first round corners in this draft and either Dre Kirkpatrick or Stephon Gilmore could be a consideration here. When you play New England twice a year, you need quality defensive backs and Gilmore has been a late riser in this draft. His best fit is in a zone coverage system where he can use his instincts and intelligence to read receivers and break on the ball. Don't be surprised to see Buffalo trade up if Matt Khalil starts to fall either.
11.) Kansas City Chiefs (7-9) Mark Barron S Alabama (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 17)
Needs: WR,TE,OL,NT,LB
Michael Floyd or David DeCastro make a lot of sense here as well, but the Chiefs are apparently very much in love with Barron's skills and safety is a huge position of need with Eric Berry coming off a serious knee injury. Barron is a smart, physical player with great intensity and leadership skills. New coach Romeo Crennell may immediately see Lawyer Milloy when he sees Barron play. K.C. is rumored to be extremely interested in Dont'a Hightower as well, but Barron is the better value here. If they truly covet Hightower, there's no reason they couldn't trade down with Dallas and take the Alabama linebacker three spots later.
12.) Seattle Seahawks (7-9) Quinton Coples DL North Carolina (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 7)
Needs: OL,LB,CB,TE,WR
Take your pick of defensive lineman here. Rumors of Seattle's interest in Syracuse's Chandler Jones are rampant, but Coples has better versatility, able to play tackle or end for the Seahawks. Coples reminds me a lot of Justin Tuck with his pass rush skills from any position along the defensive line. With Seattle's needs at linebacker, Jones or South Carolina's Melvin Ingram could be considered in that hybird role Pete Carrol loves to use. Coples has more potential than either of those players however, and even though Coples is a potential bust, his 'boom' is the greatest of any player left on the board.
13.) Arizona Cardinals (8-8) Riley Reiff OT Iowa (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 11)
Needs: OL,OLB,WR,DB,RB
My guess is that when the draft process starter, the Cardinals thought they had no chance of landing Riley Reiff, the second best offensive tackle prospect in the draft. At one point, there was talk Tampa might take the former Iowa offensive lineman at #5. Melvin Ingram will be tempting and I think David DeCastro is a better offensive line prospect overall, but Reiff plays a position where it's harder to find top-line talent. His physical style is something this Cardinal team lacks and he'd be an asset to Kevin Kolb's development in the passing game. Michael Floyd would be extremely temping and the Cards are said to be extremely interested in taking him. I wouldn't be shocked if they did, but Reiff makes much more sense and has better value here.
14.) Dallas Cowboys (8-8) Michael Brockers DT LSU (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 15)
Needs: OL,DL,DB,WR,TE
Dallas will have to trade up if they want Barron. If they can't swing a trade, the pick comes down to David DeCastro, Michael Brockers or Dre Kirkpatrick. I have DeCastro as the highest rated prospect and Kirkpatrick plays the highest impact position, but my feeling is Dallas may not view Kirkpatrick as a Day 1 starter, while Brockers is. As a 5 technique 3-4 end, Brockers has a Richard Seymour ceiling. In two or three years, he could be one of the 10 best defensive lineman in the game because his physical skills in terms of his ability to manipulate blockers and hold the point of attack are elite. Signing Brandon Carr from Kansas City means the need for Kirkpatrick may have been blunted. Brockers is a much better prospect than Marcus Spears, a former LSU tackle who the Cowboys took in the first round several years ago.
15.) Jacksonville Jaguars (F/ Eagles) Melvin Ingram DE/DT South Carolina (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 12)
Needs: WR,DE,OL,DB,RB
I think the Jags are fully willing to take Chandler Jones or Nick Perry if they can trade down to the middle of the first. In this case though, Ingram falls and I can't see the Jaguars passing. While I'm not as high on Ingram as others, his versatility and athleticism are outstanding and he can be effective as an end, tackle, or even a linebacker at times. I'm concerned about his size and short arms at the next level, particularly in a 4-3 defense, but he played in a big-time conference in college and was one of the best defensive players in football. I think this is just right for him and for a risk-averse franchise where character is important, Ingram is exactly what the Jags are looking for.
16.) New York Jets (8-8) Michael Floyd WR Notre Dame (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 13)
Needs: OLB,OL,WR,DL,RB
Jet fans would love to see Melvin Ingram fall to them here, but it seems unlikely. Chandler Jones or Nick Perry would make sense, as would DeCastro, but Floyd is the big name with the big impact. You bring in Tim Tebow to make headlines and add Michael Floyd to help your offense score points. Plus, with the range Floyd has, those Tebow underthrows and Sanchez overthrows might actually have a chance of being completed. New York is extremely interested in trading up to get Trent Richardson and has even contacted Richardson about potentially doing so. They would have to give up quite a big to get him and I'm not sure they'll be willing to offer enough to get a deal done.
17.) Bengals (F/ Oakland) Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 14)
Needs: DB,G,WR,RB,LB
This is a case where arguably the Bengals biggest need position is the same as the highest rated player on the board, but you'd understand if they passed. David DeCastro is a perfect fit for the Bengals who desperately need help along the interior, but Dre Kirkpatrick plays a greater impact position. His physical play is exactly what the Bengals want from their corners and with depth concerns at the position, Kirkpatrick would see plenty of time on the field as a rookie. I wouldn't be surprised though, if DeCastro is the pick given his extremely high value here. There's no chance Kirkpatrick falls to the Bengals at #21, but it's certainly possible that a player like Cordy Glenn, who can play guard or tackle, is available. In terms of the trade-off, you'd rather have Kirkpatrick and Glenn than DeCastro and then reaching for a lower tier corner.
18.) San Diego Chargers (8-8) David DeCastro G Stanford (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 9)
Needs: DL,LB,OL,DB,WR
San Diego could end up deciding between the second-best lineman in the draft and whomever they think is the best pass rusher left. San Diego isn't going to force it here, and I think they'll take DeCastro who could step in right away as a starter on an offensive line that has really struggled lately. DeCastro isn't massive, but the Chargers aren't going to be a power running team anyway, particularly with some of the fire power San Diego amassed in the offseason. Particularly given that the best pass rushers available at this point project better in a 4-3 defense, I'd expect if a player like DeCastro falls, he'll be a welcome site for San Diego.
19.) Chicago Bears (8-8) Whitney Mercilus DE Illinois (Pos. Rank: 5, Overall Rank: 24)
Needs: OL,CB,DE,TE,LB
For some reason, Chicago has decided its top need was at defensive end, even though their offensive line was a train wreck last year and they play in a division with Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson et al., so a defensive back would be nice here. On the other hand, the Bears can feel the window of this defense closing, meaning they'd like to upgrade it with an influx of young talent. I'm fine with Chandler Jones or Andre Branch here as well, although I think Courtney Upshaw is the best pass rusher left on the board. Mercilus was a one-year wonder at Illinois, but had one of the most productive seasons in college football history for a defensive end and with a chance to learn at the feet of Julius Peppers, could turn out to be a monster in the NFL.
20.) Tennessee Titans (9-7) Dontari Poe DT Memphis (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 16)
Needs: WR,CB,DL,TE,OL
A lot of mocks have the Titans going with Cordy Glenn or an end like Nick Perry, but Poe makes a ton of sense for a number of reasons. The first is that the Titans pass rush isn't very good and a big body like Poe would eat up space in the middle, freeing up defenders around him. Second, Poe has an extremely high ceiling despite underwhelming product at Memphis. I don't see Glenn much differently than I see Poe: big, strong, underachieving. Poe, however, is a much rarer player with his speed and quickness inside. In terms of raw ability, Poe has as many physical tools as you'll find in this draft. To me, Nick Perry or Courtney Upshaw make more sense than Glenn, but that doesn't mean Tennessee won't take him (I've been wrong before).
21.) Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) Cordy Glenn G/T Georgia (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 21)
Needs: DB,G,WR,RB,LB
This is the scenario I described above: Cincinnati takes care of its two biggest needs while maximizing the value of their picks. The Begnals love massive lineman and Glenn fits the bill at 6-5 and nearly 350 pounds. His lack of lateral quickness precludes him from being anything but a right tackle at the next level and he seems better suited to play guard. Line him up next to Andre Smith and suddenly you an incredibly strong right side of your offensive line. Kendall Wright makes sense here as well and teams are apparently lining up to take the former Baylor Bear wide receiver. I can see the Bengals biting if Glenn is off the board here.
22.) Cleveland Browns (F/ Atlanta) Jonathan Martin OT Stanford (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 26)
Needs: WR,OL,S,RB,QB,OLB
Cleveland is known to be extremely high on Brandon Weeden to the point they'd consider taking him at #22. There's also scuttlebutt that they'll use their high second round pick to trade back into the first round and assure themselves a chance to draft the Oklahoma State quarterback. Doug Martin has been a popular name in mock drafts as well with a late push into first round consideration. I think offensive line is much more likely, particularly with the drop-off at tackle after the first round. If the Browns really want a running back, there isn't a substantial difference between the second through fifth ranked running backs in this class. If they like Weeden enough to trade back into the first, then draft Martin to protect him and figure out how to snag him later.
23.) Detroit Lions (10-6) Dont'a Hightower ILB Alabama (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 23)
Needs: DB,LB,RB,WR,OL
I've seen enough permutations of this pick to believe the Lions are simply sitting back and waiting for the right player to come to them. If they're concerned about signing Cliff Avril to a long-term deal, Courtney Upshaw and Nick Perry immediately become considerations. To me though, Hightower's power and tenacity are exactly what head coach Jim Schwartz is looking for from his middle linebacker. A dominating, downhill linebacker, Hightower also has some pass rush ability and could mitigate some of the concerns left from losing Avril. I've been on Hightower since since sophomore season and he's one of my favorite players in this draft.
24.) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) Courtney Upshaw LB Alabama (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 19)
Needs: OL,DL,LB,RB,DB
To me, this is exactly the kind of pick I'd expect the Steelers to make. We know they have needs along the offensive and defensive lines, but the value isn't there with this pick. Some scouts thought Upshaw could play inside in a 3-4 defense coming into the season and after a sub-par postseason, there are some questions as to whether or not Upshaw is athletic enough to do that. I don't think it matters to Pittsburgh who could use Upshaw all over the field. The former Crimson Tide rush end was perhaps the most dominating defensive player in the best conference in football last year and that has to count for something. He has more versatility than people believe and no one is better as drafting the best player available than the Pittsburgh Steelers.
25.) Denver Broncos (8-8) Doug Martin RB Boise State (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 32)
Needs: WR,DB,DT,TE,RB
With needs at receiver, defensive line and defensive back, Martin is a little bit of a luxury pick here. If I were John Elway and John Fox, I'd be taking Kendall Wright, but because Martin has great versatility as a receiver out of the backfield and as a pass blocker, he makes sense here for Denver. Peyton Manning was at his best when he had Edgerrin James to pick up blitzers and to use out of the backfield. Coby Fleener and Devon Still could be temping here as well, but Martin sounds like the direction Denver is leaning.
26.) Houston Texans (10-6) Kendall Wright WR Baylor (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 32)
Needs: S,WR,OL,DE,QB
Best possible case scenario for the Texans. Wright is an ideal fit alongside Andre Johnson in this offense and will be used extensively in play-action to get over the top and take the top off of defenses. Wright's disappointing combine workouts were a red flag, but his stock is rising after impressive pro day workouts. Coby Fleener could be a good pick here as well and the Texans can't go wrong. If they want a first round pass catcher, they'll have a chance to get one here. Stephen Hill would even have value here if Wright comes off the board sooner.
27.)New England Patriots (F/ New Orleans) Chandler Jones DE Syracuse (Pos. Rank: 5, Overall Rank: 34)
Needs:DE,DB,OL,RB,LB
The best defensive lineman on the board will be picked here. Some mocks have Syracuse's Chandler Jones as high as #12, but I tend to be extremely skeptical of a guy who is a second round pick until three days before the draft and then suddenly he's a top 15 pick. That being said, Jones has outstanding pass rush potential and is everything you could want from a defensive end. He's actually similar to the Patriots now-departed defensive end Andre Carter in the way he's built, with long, lean arms. His quickness off the edge is his biggest asset and he may struggle a little setting the edge in the NFL. Mike Mayock believes Jones could be the best defensive player in this draft. That would be quite something if the Patriots could get him at #27.
28.) Green Bay Packers (15-1) Nick Perry OLB USC (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 22)
Needs: OLB,DL,S,OL,CB
Southern Cal' has been good to Green Bay when it comes to picking outside linebackers and Perry is not just the best pass rusher on the board left, he's the best overall player. We know Ted Thompson will go with best available over biggest need, but he has a chance to get both with this pick. Perry is a freak athlete, a 271 pound former defensive end who runs a 4.64 40. Green Bay may ask him to slim down a little to play outside since Perry put on an extra 10 pounds of muscle to show he can play the 4-3 end at the next level. He'll have to work on his coverage skills, but the average match up with a rush linebacker isn't going to end well for the defense anyway. Getting a player who lead the Pac-12 in sacks is the impact Green Bay needs, even if he's a liability in coverage.
29.) Baltimore Ravens (12-4) Stephen Hill WR Georgia Tech (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 31)
Needs: OL,OLB,DB,RB,WR
Torrey Smith was outstanding as Baltimore's deep threat last season, but the Ravens still aren't very explosive outside of Smith's big play ability. Hill wowed scouts at the combine with a blistering 40 yard time, but his limited production and polish coming out of Georgia Tech's option offense is worrisome. With another year of development and a full offseason for Smith, the Ravens could rely on Smith to do more than just run deep, while allowing Hill to step into that role. Suddenly, the Ravens would have one of the fastest and most explosive wide receiving duos in the league.
30.) San Francisco 49ers (13-3) Amini Silatolu G Midwestern State (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 53)
Needs: CB,OL,S,RB,DL,TE
Some scouts see shades of Larry Allen when they watch Silatolu play. One of the things about small school players is you can't be sure they're great because they dominate, but you can be sure they stink if they don't. Silatolu falls into the former category and was a monster at Midwestern State, the kind of physical domination that made you wonder how he didn't play legitimate Division 1 football. So that begs the question, why didn't he? He is certainly a bigger risk at the position than Wisconsin's Kevin Zeitler, but teams see the talent and physical ability and the potential is overwhelmingly apparent. A boom-or-bust prospect who has made his way in the first round. If I'm in the San Francisco war room, I can make a pick like this because the team has so few holes. If it works, it's outstanding, if it doesn't, you're still a favorite in the NFC.
31.) Cleveland Browns (F/ New England) Brandon Weeden QB Oklahoma State (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 45)
**Project Trade**
Needs: WR,OL,S,RB,QB,OLB
More than likely, the Patriots will be happy to trade out of this pick for a team interested in Brandon Weeden. I expect the Browns are the most likely to try and get back into the first to nab him. Fortunately, it may not take too much to trade up the six spots to make sure they get the quarterback they're looking for. If Weeden were 22, I think there's no question he'd considered a first round quarterback and in some ways his age (28) is a plus because he can walk into a locker room and command respect immediately. Weeden is NFL-ready and if you pair him with his former receiver in this offense, they don't have to spend a minute developing chemistry. The value isn't great here, but I think for the Browns it makes sense if they've already taken Blackmon.
32.) New York Giants (9-7) Levonte David LB Nebraska
Needs: OL,CB,LB,RB,WR
Coby Fleener will get a long look here to be sure, especially given the last team the Giants played has the best tight end int he game. David, though, plays a greater position of need and is a better value at this point. The former Cornhusker is one of the most underrated players in the draft and is an absolute stud playmaker at the position. If he weighed 15 more pounds, he'd be a top 20 pick in my opinion, but his instincts are terrific and he's the kind of athletic linebacker the Giants have been trying to find.
Round 2
33.) St. Louis Rams (2-14) Coby Fleener TE Stanford
Needs: WR,DB,OL,OLB,DT
St. Louis breaks Indy's heart by taking the best tight end in the draft who happens to be Andrew Luck's former teammate
34.) Indianapolis Colts (2-14) Devon Still DT Penn State
Needs:OL,RB,LB,WR,CB,DT
Colts have to improve 29th ranked rush defense from last season with one of the best run defenders in the draft.
35.) Minnesota Vikings (3-13) Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama
Needs: OL,DB,WR,DT,LB
This is why you take Khalil at #3: you can still get a first round caliber corner here. You can't get the same value at tackle.
36.)New England Patriots (F/ Cleveland) Jerel Worthy DT Michigan State
**Projected Trade**
Needs:DE,DB,OL,RB,LB
Re-signing Dan Koppen allows the Pats to nab the powerful interior rusher from Michigan State to boost the defensive front even further.
37.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12) Peter Konz C Wisconsin
Needs: LB,DB,OL,TE,RB,WR
Without a viable center on the roster, Tampa finds the cornerstone center to lead their offense which now centers around Trent Richardson.
38.) Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11) David Wilson RB Virginia Tech
Needs: WR,DE,OL,DB,RB
Alshon Jeffery is too big a risk to Jags, so Wilson gives Jacksonville terrific 1-2 punch at running back.
39.) St. Louis Rams (2-14) Alshon Jeffery WR South Carolina
Needs: WR,DB,OL,OLB,DT
Jeff Fisher not afraid to take most talented player on the board at a position of need, despite red flags. Jeffery will be terrific with a legitimate quarterback.
40.) Carolina Panthers (6-10) Brandon Boykin CB Georgia
Needs: CB,WR,S,LB, DL
Best defensive back on the board would help improve Carolina's abysmal passing defense, plus could give Steve Smith a break in the return game.
41.) Buffalo Bills (6-10) Kevin Zeitler G Wisconsin
Needs: OL,WR,LB,DB,TE
Biggest need gets addressed with polished, physical guard from Wisconsin.
42.) Miami Dolphins (6-10) Rueben Randle WR LSU
Needs: OL,QB,WR,LB,TE,S
If you're going to pick Tannehill, you better get someone for him to throw to. Raw, talented Randle will need time to develop, but has big-time upside.
43.) Seattle Seahawks (7-9) Mike Adams OT Ohio State
Needs: OL,LB,CB,TE,WR
Adams might be second best left tackle prospect in the draft and Seattle needs serious help along the offensive line.
44.) Kansas City Chiefs (7-9) Dwayne Allen TE Clemson
Needs: WR,TE,OL,NT,LB
Chiefs offense has limited weapons and Allen would help in both phases of the offense. Good value here.
45.) Dallas Cowboys (8-8) Trumaine Johnson CB Montana
Needs: OL,DL,DB,WR,TE
Versatile FBS defensive back would be a major upgrade for this struggling Dallas defense.
46.) Philadelphia Eagles (8-8) Lamer Miller RB Miami (Fla.)
Needs:OL,LB,DT,S,RB,WR
Philly gets a back to lighten the burden for LeSean McCoy and provide much-needed depth at the position.
47.) New York Jets (8-8) Andre Branch OLB/DE Clemson
Needs: OLB,OL,WR,DL,RB
Major pass rush upgrade for the Jets who failed to generate pressure last year without blitzing.
48.) New England Patriots (F/ Oakland) Harrison Smith S Notre Dame
Needs:DE,DB,OL,RB,LB Physical box safety heading to New England, a team who was pulling guys off the street to play in the secondary last year.
49.) San Diego Chargers (8-8) Zach Brown LB North Carolina
Needs: DL,LB,OL,DB,WR
Not an ideal fit for the Chargers, but Brown is lightening fast and could learn from underrated rusher Antwan Barnes.
50.) Chicago Bears (8-8) Bobbie Massie OT Mississippi
Needs: OL,CB,DE,TE,LB
Offensive line remains a problem for the Bears and if Gabe Carimi gets healthy, Massie will have some time to develop.
51.) Jacksonville Jaguars (F/ Philadelphia) Brandon Thompson DT Clemson
**Projected Trade**
Needs: WR,DE,OL,DB,RB
Jags get a defensive line upgrade once considered to be a first round talent as part of Eagles trade for Fletcher Cox.
52.) Tennessee Titans (9-7) Shea McClellin DE Boise State
Needs: WR,CB,DL,TE,OL
Tennessee loves to get winners and McClellin is a relentless edge rusher with an excellent college background.
53.) Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) Chris Polk RB Washington
Needs: DB,G,WR,RB,LB
Cinci gets solid value with the versatile Polk to go with the Bengals' potent, young offensive core.
54.) Detroit Lions (10-6) Mitchell Schwartz OT California
Needs: DB,LB,RB,WR,OL
Lions need to do a better job of opening holes in the run game and protecting Matthew Stafford, so getting the best available offensive lineman should help do that.
55.) Atlanta Falcons (10-6) Vinny Curry DE Marshall
Needs: OL,DB,DE,WR,TE
Falcons desperately need a pass rusher to generate pressure opposite John Abraham and Curry is a good fit for 4-3 scheme.
56.) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) Kendall Reyes DT Connecticut
Needs: OL,DL,LB,RB,DB
It would be a gift if a fringe first round talent like Reyes fell all the way to Steelers here.
57.) Denver Broncos (8-8) Kirk Cousins QB Michigan State
Needs: WR,DB,DT,TE,RB
Wouldn't be popular with Peyton Manning, but Broncos get QB of the future who (like Tebow) is proven winner.
58.) Houston Texans (10-6) Bobby Wagner ILB Utah State
Needs: S,WR,OL,DE,QB
Athletic replacement for departed Demeco Ryans and Houston continues to build a dominating defense.
59.) Green Bay Packers (15-1) Jared Crick DL Nebraska
Needs: OLB,DL,S,OL,CB
Packers get defensive line upgrade they desperate need to pair with first round stud Nick Perry.
60.) Baltimore Ravens (12-4) Josh Robinson CB Central Florida
Needs: OL,OLB,DB,RB,WR
Speedy corner would be terrific nickelback for Ravens in a division full of terrific young receivers.
61.) San Francisco 49ers (13-3) Jamell Flemming CB Oklahoma
Needs: CB,OL,S,RB,DL,TE
Thin 49ers secondary gets upgrade with rising Oklahoma corner who is excellent in man coverage.
62.) New England Patriots (13-3)Mohamed Sanu WR Rutgers
Needs:DE,DB,OL,RB,LBHighly-productive college receiver would give Patriots a young weapon outside to pair with their terrific tandem of tight ends.
63.) New York Giants (9-7) Brian Quick WR Appalachian State
Needs: OL,CB,LB,RB,WR
Raw receiver would have time to develop for Giants, could eventually be a terrific trio with Cruz and Nicks.
Round 3
64.)Indianapolis Colts - Orson Charles TE Georgia
65.) St. Louis Rams - Kelechi Osemele OL Iowa State
66.) Minnesota Vikings - Ronnell Lewis OLB/DE Oklahoma
67. Cleveland Browns - Bruce Irvin OLB West Virginia
68.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Chase Minnifield CB Virginia
69.) Washington Redskins - Alameda Ta'amu NT Washington
70.) Jacksonville Jaguars - Joe Adams WR Arkansas
71.) Buffalo Bills - Zebrie Sanders OT Florida State
72.) Miami Dolphins - LaMichael James RB Oregon
73.) Dolphins F/ Chicago - Markelle Martin S Oklahoma State
74.) Kansas City Chiefs - Brock Osweiler QB Arizona State
75.) Seattle Seahawks - Jayron Hosley CB Virginia Tech
76.) Texans F/ Philadelphia - Jeff Allen OL Illinois
77.) New York Jets - Casey Heyward CB Vanderbilt
78.) San Diego Chargers - Jonathan Massoquoi OLB Troy
79.) Chicago Bears - Chris Givens WR Wake Forest
80.) Arizona Cardinals - Nick Toon WR Wisconsin
81.) Dallas Cowboys - Marvin Jones WR California
82.) Tennessee Titans - Brandon Brooks G Miami (OH)
83.) Cincinnati Bengals - Cameron Johnson DE Virginia
84.) Atlanta Falcons - Mike Martin DT Michigan
85.) Detroit Lions - Mychal Kendricks LB California
86.) Pittsburgh Steelers - Tyronne Crawford DE Boise State
87.) Denver Broncos - Dwight Bentley CB LA-Lafeyette
88.) Eagles F/ Houson - George Iloka S Boise State
89.) New Orleans Saints - Brandon Washington G Miami (Fla.)
90.) Green Bay Packers - Isaiah Pead RB Cincinnati
91.) Baltimore Ravens - Ben Jones C Georgia
92.) San Francisco 49ers - Trevor Guyton DL California
93.) New England Patriots - Matt McCants OT UAB
94.) New York Giants - Ledarius Green TE LA-Lafeyette
95.) Oakland Raiders (Comp. Pick) - Nigel Bradham LB Florida State
Saturday, April 21, 2012
2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Washington Redskins
The Washington Redskins are at it again. Every year, it seems, they try to make a big splash, spend millions on free agents and yet only rarely make the playoffs.
For years now, the only thing Washington has won is the offseason.
It certainly doesn't help playing in a division with perennial power teams. In the 1990's, there was the Cowboys dynasty. In the early 2000's, Philadelphia was making a deep run every year, and now the Giants have won two Super Bowl titles in the last five seasons.
But Washington, instead of rebuilding through the draft and setting a solid foundation, has tried quick fixes to remain competitive.
Now, finally, the Redskins have made an offseason splash that may also serve to set that foundation.
They gave up a lot to get him, but trading up with the Rams to draft Robert Griffin III may be a seminal moment in this franchise's history.
RG3 is one of the most unique talents we've ever seen come out of college and has a chance to be special in the NFL.
Owner Daniel Snyder made a few moves to bolster the receiving core and the defensive backfield, eschewing the big names, while aiming for the kind of role players you need to compete every week in the league.
This somewhat new approach may not pay off this season, but could pay long-term dividends for the Redskins.
Offense
Despite what Donovan McNabb says (try to stifle your laughter), Griffin III will be an ideal fit for this offense. Roy Helu appears to be a solid running back and with a new group of receivers, RG3 will use play action and roll-outs to put defenses on their heels.
Just how much this offense will be tailored to fit the Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, we'll find out once practice begins. I doubt we'll see much speed option, but you can expect some designed runs for Griffin as well as frequent use of boot options and read plays.
Josh Morgan and Pierre Garcon were signed to bring some consistency to this skill group. Santana Moss is getting older, but can still be explosive at times. Getting a deeper group of receivers should take the pressure of him and open up more lanes for him to make big plays down the field.
There are some concerns with this offensive line group although Trent Williams has been ad advertised when he's been healthy. Getting some protection for RG3 should be a perennial focus from now on.
Adding a pass-catching tight end would also give Griffin III a security blanket and a red zone threat. There is a solid group of tight ends in this class, and the Redskins, despite not having a second round pick, could still pick one up.
Key Free Agents: David Anderson WR, Rex Grossman QB (re-signed w/ Redskins), Tim Hightower RB, Malcolm Kelly WR, Kory Lichtensteiger G (re-signed w/ Redskins), Sean Locklear OT, Will Montgomery C (re-signed w/ Redskins), Mike Sellers TE, Donte' Stallworth WR (signed w/ Patriots), Ryan Torain RB
Defense
While Snyder didn't break the bank on one of the big fish in free agency, he did stockpile defensive backs after losing both his starting safeties in free agency along with two other role players.
Washington will bring in Madieu Williams, Brandon Meriweather and Tanard Jackson, all who have been impact safeties at various times in their respective careers.
Out of those three, you'd hope Washington could find two who play well enough to emerge as starters. Jackson is the biggest playmaker in coverage of the three, but was the worst defensive back in football last year making tackles according to Pro Football Focus.
Leigh Torrence and Cedric Griffin (assuming he still has working ligaments in his knees), should provide some depth behind DeAngelo Hall at corner for a defense that finished 12th last year against the pass.
The Redskins are in good shape when it comes to pass rush with Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan, but the defensive interior is weak to say the least and getting some beef in the middle should help secure a defense that game up more than 117 yards per game on the ground last year.
Key Free Agents: O.J. Atogwe S, Phillip Buchanon DB, Adam Carriker DE (re-signed w/ Redskins), London Fletcher ILB (re-signed w/ Redskins), Keyaron Fox LB, Kedric Golston (re-signed w/ Redskins), Chris Horton DB (signed w/ Giants), LaRon Landry SS (signed w/ Jets), Rocky McIntosh ILB, Byron Westbrook DB
Draft Targets
Round 3 (Pick 69): Alameda Ta'amu NT Washington (Pos. Rank: 8, Overall Rank: 69)
Overall
The value of this draft is dead on (0), but you have to remember what the Rams gave up to get Robert Griffin III. It seems like the Redskins might have given up one first round pick too many if you go by the charting, but if you look at next year's draft would RG3 have been rated about Matt Barkley? Maybe, but Barkley is the presumptive #1 overall pick next year, not to mention Griffin III has a higher ceiling. He certainly ranks about where Landry Jones would have been, which means if you were going to pick a year to get a quarterback, this is it. Either Ta'amu or Orson Charles could be impact rookies and either would be a welcome upgrade to what the Redskins have at the position already.
For years now, the only thing Washington has won is the offseason.
It certainly doesn't help playing in a division with perennial power teams. In the 1990's, there was the Cowboys dynasty. In the early 2000's, Philadelphia was making a deep run every year, and now the Giants have won two Super Bowl titles in the last five seasons.
But Washington, instead of rebuilding through the draft and setting a solid foundation, has tried quick fixes to remain competitive.
Now, finally, the Redskins have made an offseason splash that may also serve to set that foundation.
They gave up a lot to get him, but trading up with the Rams to draft Robert Griffin III may be a seminal moment in this franchise's history.
RG3 is one of the most unique talents we've ever seen come out of college and has a chance to be special in the NFL.
Owner Daniel Snyder made a few moves to bolster the receiving core and the defensive backfield, eschewing the big names, while aiming for the kind of role players you need to compete every week in the league.
This somewhat new approach may not pay off this season, but could pay long-term dividends for the Redskins.
Offense
Despite what Donovan McNabb says (try to stifle your laughter), Griffin III will be an ideal fit for this offense. Roy Helu appears to be a solid running back and with a new group of receivers, RG3 will use play action and roll-outs to put defenses on their heels.
Just how much this offense will be tailored to fit the Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, we'll find out once practice begins. I doubt we'll see much speed option, but you can expect some designed runs for Griffin as well as frequent use of boot options and read plays.
Josh Morgan and Pierre Garcon were signed to bring some consistency to this skill group. Santana Moss is getting older, but can still be explosive at times. Getting a deeper group of receivers should take the pressure of him and open up more lanes for him to make big plays down the field.
There are some concerns with this offensive line group although Trent Williams has been ad advertised when he's been healthy. Getting some protection for RG3 should be a perennial focus from now on.
Adding a pass-catching tight end would also give Griffin III a security blanket and a red zone threat. There is a solid group of tight ends in this class, and the Redskins, despite not having a second round pick, could still pick one up.
Key Free Agents: David Anderson WR, Rex Grossman QB (re-signed w/ Redskins), Tim Hightower RB, Malcolm Kelly WR, Kory Lichtensteiger G (re-signed w/ Redskins), Sean Locklear OT, Will Montgomery C (re-signed w/ Redskins), Mike Sellers TE, Donte' Stallworth WR (signed w/ Patriots), Ryan Torain RB
Defense
While Snyder didn't break the bank on one of the big fish in free agency, he did stockpile defensive backs after losing both his starting safeties in free agency along with two other role players.
Washington will bring in Madieu Williams, Brandon Meriweather and Tanard Jackson, all who have been impact safeties at various times in their respective careers.
Out of those three, you'd hope Washington could find two who play well enough to emerge as starters. Jackson is the biggest playmaker in coverage of the three, but was the worst defensive back in football last year making tackles according to Pro Football Focus.
Leigh Torrence and Cedric Griffin (assuming he still has working ligaments in his knees), should provide some depth behind DeAngelo Hall at corner for a defense that finished 12th last year against the pass.
The Redskins are in good shape when it comes to pass rush with Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan, but the defensive interior is weak to say the least and getting some beef in the middle should help secure a defense that game up more than 117 yards per game on the ground last year.
Key Free Agents: O.J. Atogwe S, Phillip Buchanon DB, Adam Carriker DE (re-signed w/ Redskins), London Fletcher ILB (re-signed w/ Redskins), Keyaron Fox LB, Kedric Golston (re-signed w/ Redskins), Chris Horton DB (signed w/ Giants), LaRon Landry SS (signed w/ Jets), Rocky McIntosh ILB, Byron Westbrook DB
Draft Targets
Needs: QB,DL,OL,TE,DB
Round 1 (Pick 2 F/ Rams): Robert Griffin III QB Baylor (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 2)
We know this is the pick and what the Redskins gave up to make it. We also know that Griffin III is the most athletic quarterback to come into the league since Mike Vick, but doesn't have the same run-first mentality. In some ways, RG3 is the quarterback we always thought Vick should be, using his feet to keep defenses honest and creating problems when the play breaks down. This is a make or break moment for the Redskins. If Griffin III is the player the 'Skins think he is, it was well-worth the price they paid and ironically, he has a much higher ceiling than Sam Bradford, who happens to play on the team Washington traded with to get this pick.
Round 2 (Pick 39): Traded to Rams for #2 pick
Round 2 (Pick 39): Traded to Rams for #2 pick
Round 3 (Pick 69): Alameda Ta'amu NT Washington (Pos. Rank: 8, Overall Rank: 69)
Washington did re-sign Adam Carriker, but there are currently only three defensive tackles on this roster. Ta'amu has dominant physical skills, was unblockable at the Senior Bowl, but much like fellow nose tackle Dontari Poe, the film doesn't show him to be a consistent force. Luckily, he doesn't have the baggage that Albert Haynesworth had and as such, should be much more coachable at the next level. This probably isn't who I'll have have in my final mock, only because I think Daniel Snyder will want to get more weapons for RG3. That's why to me, Orson Charles seems more likely even if Ta'amu makes more sense.
Overall
Final Thought
Even if Robet Griffin III can step in and be as good as Cam Newton as a rookie, the Redskins will be extremely lucky to win 8 games next year. In a division where the Giants, Eagles and Cowboys all appear to be stronger than last year (with the possible exception of the Giants), the Redskins will have an uphill battle trying to make strides. To me, you can't judge the Redskins based on 2012 however, because the move to get RG3 signals a shift to make long-term improvements. Six or seven wins would be outstanding, particularly given that the 'Skins have the NFC South and the AFC North teams on their schedule. Four or five wins with RG3 at quarterback seems much more likely, landing the 'Skins back in the top 10 of next year's draft. I know it won't make the fans happy, at least during the season, but that could actually be a good thing and would give Washington the ability to continue this rebuilding project through the draft, adding young talent around their franchise quarterback.
Even if Robet Griffin III can step in and be as good as Cam Newton as a rookie, the Redskins will be extremely lucky to win 8 games next year. In a division where the Giants, Eagles and Cowboys all appear to be stronger than last year (with the possible exception of the Giants), the Redskins will have an uphill battle trying to make strides. To me, you can't judge the Redskins based on 2012 however, because the move to get RG3 signals a shift to make long-term improvements. Six or seven wins would be outstanding, particularly given that the 'Skins have the NFC South and the AFC North teams on their schedule. Four or five wins with RG3 at quarterback seems much more likely, landing the 'Skins back in the top 10 of next year's draft. I know it won't make the fans happy, at least during the season, but that could actually be a good thing and would give Washington the ability to continue this rebuilding project through the draft, adding young talent around their franchise quarterback.
Sunday, January 8, 2012
By the Numbers: Comparing Elite NFL Quarterbacks to 2012 Draft Prospects
Using statistics to project athletes from college to the pros would
make a scout's job much easier. Over the years, writers like John
Hollinger have come up with formulas to take college basketball players
and predict what kind of NBA players they might make.
It's an inexact science to be sure and there is no silver bullet, or scouts would already be using it.
Trying to the do the same with NFL players proves much more difficult because the college and NFL systems a player is in can make a significantly greater difference in football than it does in basketball.
I broke down the top 10 quarterbacks in the NFL this season by different statistical categories. Often, writers will want to use historical context, but given the constant flux of the pro game, using the most up to date information we can provides us the most relevant information.
Given the inherent flaws of gross statistics and even some efficiency statistics, I used QB Rating to pick a "Top 10" for comparison purposes.The following are the Top 10 QB's career college numbers.
Tannehill is only a two-year starter while Foles has more experience (making his lack of success even more frustrating).
Basically, they are what they are at this point.
Based on the numbers above, he doesn't belong above Brandon Weeden or even Kirk Cousins when it comes to translatable NFL skills like accuracy and driving the ball down the field.
Speaking of Weeden, the Oklahoma State prospect does appear underranked based on these numbers. An interesting doppelganger emerges when you look at these numbers side by side.
If you take into account the talent-level difference between the Big 12 and the MAC, the two are very similar.
Both are tall, lanky quarterbacks who slide step and move in the pocket to create plays. Weeden, at 28 years-old, doesn't have a ton of upside, but has the experience and maturity that could follow a similar path to Big Ben's with Pittsburgh as he lead them to the playoffs as a rookie.
If I needed a quarterback for the next 10 years, perhaps Tannehill makes more sense because of age and upside, but if I'm an 8-8 team like the Seahawks or a 7-9 team like the Chiefs who may just be a quarterback away from the playoffs next year, I would like Weeden's chances to play right away.
When it comes to interesting similarities though, there is a somewhat shocking pair.
Jones, of course, has put up these numbers as a standing junior. Brees was a senior when he left for the NFL with these Big-10 leading stats.
Oklahoma's signal-caller is more physically gifted, with a bigger frame and stronger arm than Brees. Jones isn't as pinpoint accurate as Brees, but even Brees in San Diego wasn't as accurate or efficient as Brees in New Orleans.
Oklahoma's recent list of NFL quarterbacks isn't exactly a who's who of All-Pro's, but Jones was basically unstoppable with Ryan Broyles before Broyles tore up his knee. Jones is certainly better as a prospect than Blaine Gabbert and there was some discussion he'd the #1 pick last year.
Jones, as a thrower, has as much natural ability as any quarterback in this class and while Griffin put up most of his numbers for middling teams (until this year), Jones has been playing in big games all three years in Norman.
Some uneven play this season has dropped Jones' stock, but he has considered a top 10 pick before the season began.
If we re-ordred the top 10 list based on these numbers it would look more like this:
1.) Andrew Luck
2.) Robert Griffin III
3.) Landry Jones
4.) Brandon Weeden
5.) Kirk Cousins
6.) Nick Foles
7.) Ryan Tannehill
8.) Kellen Moore
9.) Russell Wilson
10.) Ryan Lindley
Lindley couldn't break 60% completing passes in the Mountain West Conference, dropping him down the board and both Moore and Wilson just aren't big enough to rank any higher.
It is interesting to note though, both would be a few spots higher if they were a few inches taller, particularly Moore who has bar far the most impressive stats on the list.
I'm not a fan of expecting dramatic improvement out of players (e.g. Tannehill has to actually show me he can do it before I'll buy that he can), although, we do see guys like Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford outperform their college careers.
College numbers don't tell the whole story, but they do expose important flaws to potential teams.
It's an inexact science to be sure and there is no silver bullet, or scouts would already be using it.
Trying to the do the same with NFL players proves much more difficult because the college and NFL systems a player is in can make a significantly greater difference in football than it does in basketball.
I broke down the top 10 quarterbacks in the NFL this season by different statistical categories. Often, writers will want to use historical context, but given the constant flux of the pro game, using the most up to date information we can provides us the most relevant information.
Given the inherent flaws of gross statistics and even some efficiency statistics, I used QB Rating to pick a "Top 10" for comparison purposes.The following are the Top 10 QB's career college numbers.
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| A brief look at the numbers and you'll see Alex Smith is actually the
most impressive statistical player on this list. Tom Brady is
particularly underwhelming and Ben Roethlisberger is perhaps the most
accomplished overall. One of the important lessons of Alex Smith appears to be that without a sufficient sample size, we tend to lose the reliability of these numbers. Smith was wonderfully efficient against mid-major talent and threw by far the fewest passes on this list as the quarterback at Utah. Smith's success this year, however, illustrates my first point about the necessity to put a player in the proper system to succeed. The statistical proficiency of the quarterbacks in college systems vary, but completion percentage and yards per attempt seem like translatable talents as does the ability to score versus the propensity to turn the ball over (TD:INT). In other words, quarterbacks who can't complete high percentages in college, won't change much in the pros. Furthermore, dink and dunk college quarterbacks will be the same game managers in the NFL.
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| These are the top 10 prospects entering the 2012 NFL Draft at this
point. Landry Jones says he hasn't made a decision, but we'll include
him for perspective purposes. Right away Andrew Luck and Robbert Griffin III jump off the page. Their efficiency and overall production are well above our composite average from above.Does that mean they'll necessarily be top-level NFL quarterbacks? Of course not. They need the right coach, right system and right players around them. On the other hand, the reliable indicators like completion percentage and YPA appear to be part Luck and RG3's already impressive resume. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Using statistics to reenforce what we see with our eyes is the best way to use statistics when it comes to their predictive powers. If we thought Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin would be excellent NFL quarterbacks and what we found was startlingly below average, it might give us pause. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Looking at the list above, Ryan Tannehill and Nick Foles both seem overrated based on their rankings. The two are big, strong quarterbacks who play on mediocre teams. Neither has a pedigree as big-time winners, nor have they had marquee games to prove their abilities. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| That being said, both are well below average when it comes to production, particularly in TD:Int ratio and YPA. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Basically, they are what they are at this point.
Based on the numbers above, he doesn't belong above Brandon Weeden or even Kirk Cousins when it comes to translatable NFL skills like accuracy and driving the ball down the field.
Speaking of Weeden, the Oklahoma State prospect does appear underranked based on these numbers. An interesting doppelganger emerges when you look at these numbers side by side.
| Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp % | TD:Int | YPA | |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 854 | 1304 | 10,829 | 84 | 34 | 65.49% | 2.47:1 | 8.3 |
| Brandon Weeden | 737 | 1060 | 8,861 | 72 | 26 | 69.53% | 2.77:1 | 8.36 |
If you take into account the talent-level difference between the Big 12 and the MAC, the two are very similar.
Both are tall, lanky quarterbacks who slide step and move in the pocket to create plays. Weeden, at 28 years-old, doesn't have a ton of upside, but has the experience and maturity that could follow a similar path to Big Ben's with Pittsburgh as he lead them to the playoffs as a rookie.
If I needed a quarterback for the next 10 years, perhaps Tannehill makes more sense because of age and upside, but if I'm an 8-8 team like the Seahawks or a 7-9 team like the Chiefs who may just be a quarterback away from the playoffs next year, I would like Weeden's chances to play right away.
When it comes to interesting similarities though, there is a somewhat shocking pair.
| Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp % | TD:Int | YPA | |
| Drew Brees | 1026 | 1628 | 11,792 | 90 | 44 | 63.00% | 2.0:1 | 7.24 |
| Landry Jones | 1005 | 1603 | 12,218 | 92 | 40 | 62.79% | 2.3:1 | 7.62 |
Jones, of course, has put up these numbers as a standing junior. Brees was a senior when he left for the NFL with these Big-10 leading stats.
Oklahoma's signal-caller is more physically gifted, with a bigger frame and stronger arm than Brees. Jones isn't as pinpoint accurate as Brees, but even Brees in San Diego wasn't as accurate or efficient as Brees in New Orleans.
Oklahoma's recent list of NFL quarterbacks isn't exactly a who's who of All-Pro's, but Jones was basically unstoppable with Ryan Broyles before Broyles tore up his knee. Jones is certainly better as a prospect than Blaine Gabbert and there was some discussion he'd the #1 pick last year.
Jones, as a thrower, has as much natural ability as any quarterback in this class and while Griffin put up most of his numbers for middling teams (until this year), Jones has been playing in big games all three years in Norman.
Some uneven play this season has dropped Jones' stock, but he has considered a top 10 pick before the season began.
If we re-ordred the top 10 list based on these numbers it would look more like this:
1.) Andrew Luck
2.) Robert Griffin III
3.) Landry Jones
4.) Brandon Weeden
5.) Kirk Cousins
6.) Nick Foles
7.) Ryan Tannehill
8.) Kellen Moore
9.) Russell Wilson
10.) Ryan Lindley
Lindley couldn't break 60% completing passes in the Mountain West Conference, dropping him down the board and both Moore and Wilson just aren't big enough to rank any higher.
It is interesting to note though, both would be a few spots higher if they were a few inches taller, particularly Moore who has bar far the most impressive stats on the list.
I'm not a fan of expecting dramatic improvement out of players (e.g. Tannehill has to actually show me he can do it before I'll buy that he can), although, we do see guys like Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford outperform their college careers.
College numbers don't tell the whole story, but they do expose important flaws to potential teams.
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