Three days are done at the combine and the skill positions on offense have taken their turn. Already some shifting has taken place as a result of combine work, both upward and downward. The tight end class in 2008 lacks a top 10 prospect like a Kellen Winslow Jr., but Fred Davis and Dustin Keller both have the potential to be better than Greg Olsen, the first tight end taken in 2007. The group features several highly productive collegiate players and several projects, whose college numbers may not be indicative over their overall talent. Here is a look at the top players at the tight end position for 2008.
1a.) Fred Davis USC 6-4 248
Davis caught a team high 62 passes in 13 ball games in his senior season for USC and is one of the few premier talents at the tight end position in this year's draft. While he struggled early at the combine with drops, Fred Davis has the ball skills of a wide receiver and has the athleticism to make difficult catches in traffic. His route running has improved significantly and he is certainly capable of running routes from the slot, the backfield, or off the line. Davis did not run at the combine but put up 24 reps of 225, good enough for third among tight ends. There are some questions about his ability to block at the point of attack, so perhaps the strong bench press performance eases the minds of scouts in that regard. Davis does use good technique in the run game and with added strength, his blocking should be solid. Davis was the John Mackey award winner for best tight end in the nation and watching him demolish the Illinois defense in the Rose Bowl, it was easy to see why. A dominant performance from Purdue's Dustin Keller at the combine means Davis will need a strong Pro Day to solidify himself as the top tight end in the draft. With a 40 in the sub 4.7's will likely mean a first round grade. He is one of my favorite players at any position in this year's draft. A team like Seattle could really utilize his skill set in that offense, and could take him in the first round.
1b. Dustin Keller Purdue 6-3 245
Dustin Keller's put on a clinic at the combine, testing out as the best athlete in the tight end class, particularly given that Fred Davis did not run. Keller was the fastest tight end in Indy running a blistering (for tight ends) 4.53 40 yard dash. In addition,the Purdue product had the highest vertical jump (38 inches) and put up the second most reps of 225 on the bench (26). And don't be fooled into thinking this converted wide receiver is simply a work out warrior. In 8 games last season Keller caught 5 or more passes, including a 7 catch 150 yard 1 TD performance in the Motor City Bowl against Central Michigan. While Keller may not play with ideal leverage in the run game, or have great technique blocking overall, with his strength and athleticism these things can be cultivated. He has a knack for finding holes in zones and settling in, but he will drop balls occasionally. Fred Davis may be the most polished and NFL-ready tight end in the Draft, but Keller has the most upside. In the right system, Keller could be a force on Sundays. So, until Fred Davis runs at USC's Pro Day, the two will be 1a and 1b.
3.) John Carlson Notre Dame 6-6 256
This former basketball star certainly passes the eye test, but did not pass many other tests at the combine. Many of the concerns scouts had about Carlson coming in were confirmed. Carlson is neither quick nor fast, running 4.9 40's, but he also not what you would consider a blocking tight end. He plays with poor leverage at times, but takes good angles and has adequate technique as a blocker. His 20 reps on the bench press is average at best and wasn't even in the top 10. Two straight seasons with 40 or more receptions at Notre Dame proves his reliability, and his hands are solid. At the combine, he fought the ball at times, and his fluidity in that regard continues to be a concern. Carlson benefited from Notre Dame's pro style offense, utilizing his smarts and craftiness to get open in zones and seams. He adjusts well to the flight path of poorly thrown balls (something he had to deal with quite a bit as a senior). Zach Miller ran a disappointing 40 at the combine last year and was picked in the second round. Carlson does not have the kind of upside as Davis and Keller and probably lost his first round grade at the combine. The second, even the third round is probably where Carlson will fall. He can certainly help a team right away, even if it is just special teams and multiple tight end sets.
4.) Martellus Bennett Texas A&M 6-7 248
An All-American tight end and former basketball player, Martellus Bennett's value will vary on draft boards for a number of reasons. The former Aggie is an intriguing prospect because of his ability to play both run and pass. Bennett is probably the most complete tight end in terms of combining blocking and receiving. He will maul people in the run game and pass protection and has the bulk to take on rush linebackers and even defensive ends. He fights to the whistle with or without the ball and gets more than 5 knockdown blocks per game. In addition, Bennett lacks great speed overall, but did run a sub 4.7 40 and with his height and long arms can make tough catches in the seam and over the middle. Some attitude issues may take away from his value some, but not enough for too many teams to shy away from a talent like his. Teams who love to run the football will really covet this kid, but those with vertical passing attacks will likely have him lower on their boards. Either way, he has serious talent and a team in the second round like Buffalo or Atlanta would provide great fits for Bennett's talent. He is at worst an early third round pick and I would not be surprised if he goes ahead of Carlson as these ratings could just as easily be flipped(much like Davis and Keller).
5.) Jermichael Finley Texas 6-5 236
This begins the drop off in tight end talent in this year's class. Jermichael Finley actually declared after a redshirt sophomore year in which he caught 45 passes for for 578 yards and 2 touchdowns. Finley flashed his natural receiving skills, but could have benefited from at least one more year of school at Texas. He has an athletic body and has room to put on weight. Scouts expected him to run faster than he did at 4.82, but that was good enough 8th among tight ends. He is one of the few elusive tight ends in this year's draft, certainly more than Bennett or Carlson and can generate yards after the catch. His blocking has improved and should continue to do so. Only 16 career starts is certainly a concern. In addition Finley has never played in a pro-style offense. With such little playing experience, his adjustment to a Pro Game could be slow. In theory, his best football is ahead of him and he is risk/reward prospect. He could go anywhere from the second to fourth round.
6.) Martin Rucker Missouri 6-5 248
Martin Rucker is the most productive collegiate at the position by far. When you are in the record books next to Kellen B. Winslow, you have some serious talent. Rucker did not time well at the combine, nor did he show much dexterity at the Senior Bowl, but the numbers speak for themselves. Rucker had 80 catches last season; only 3 tight ends in the NFL had 80 or more catches and they get 16 games. He is not particularly strong, nor does he have much experience as an in-line blocker, but he takes solid angles and gets to the second level quickly. He is a fluid route runner on film, regardless of his inconsistent Senior Bowl, and should be able to run all the routes in the pros. He lacks ideal speed to push safeties deep, but he will move the chains in a consistent way and will be a reliable third down and redzone target. Concerns about his time in the spread inflating his statistics certainly has merit, but Missouri has had a number of different weapons over his time and Rucker has always produced. He is a little of a "what you see is what you get" product with less upside than the guys above him. However, Rucker is an extremely solid football player and can help a team looking to add depth and receiving ability. Should go in the third or fourth round, but may slip given the poor showing at the combine and Senior Bowl.
7.) Brad Cottam Tennesse 6-8 271
Brad Cottom may be one of the biggest risk/reward prospects at any position in this year's draft, and has to talent to go as high as the second round. At the combine Cottom's measureables make him look like a top-tier prospect ( 4.63 40, 24 reps on the bench, and 33 inch vertical jump). Cottam is someone the antithesis of Rucker. In his 3 year career at Tennessee, Cottam has just 21 receptions, 3 for touchdowns. His hands are average and he is not going to make anyone miss. His speed suggests he can stretch the middle of the field, but isn't very physical and may not have what it takes to take the physical beating over the middle. Injuries have hampered him throughout his career and after running one of the best times at the position in the 40, Cottam came up lame. His strength and athleticism can be harnessed and with the right coaching staff and system he could be an extremely productive receiver, particularly in the red zone. The middle rounds seem about right to take a risk on this kind of player, somewhere in the third or fourth round area.
8.) Kellen Davis Michigan State 6-6 259
If there is one player you wouldn't want to piss off in a bar, this is the guy. Davis sports chiseled and imposing frame and has tremendous athletic potential. Unfortunately for him (and for Spartan fans), his work ethic never met his potential. Plenty of teams were interesting in talking to Davis at the Senior Bowl and after a solid performance at the combine it isn't difficult to see why. Davis ran a 4.6 40, good enough for fourth among tight ends and amazing for someone with his size. He has the frame to add even more strength (he repped 225 22 times) and some of the fundamentals can be fine-tuned. He played some defensive end in East Lansing and teams might be tempted to try him as a rush linebacker, although his ball skills probably make it too hard to put him on defense. Either way, he has a future as a special teams impact player right away if he can commit to it. He is certainly a project, but a team willing to wait could get a steal in the late fourth or fifth round.
Other tight ends expecting to hear their names called in April: Craig Stephens Cal, Jacob Tamme Kentucky, Darrell Strong Pitt, Joe Jon Finley Oklahoma, Joey Haynos Maryland, Gary Barnidge Louisville
Sunday, February 24, 2008
Saturday, February 16, 2008
NFL Off-Season Preview 2008: AFC North
2007 was a year for underachieving in the AFC North. Pittsburgh looked like a serious contender before the season began and lost in the first round at home to Jacksonville. Cincinnati played absolutely horrible defense and the offense struggled more than many expected. But perhaps the biggest disappointment was the Ravens. Baltimore fell from 13-3 to 5-11 and probably played even worse than their 5-11 record would indicate. If you're a Cleveland fan, you couldn't care less. The perennial cellar-dwelling Browns broke out of their funk with a 10-6 record, narrowly missing the playoffs. If the Ravens pull off something major like landing Eagles QB Donovan McNabb, the North could be stacked. As it is, 2008 will be highly competitive and may not be decided until week 17.
Projected 1st Round Pick: #8 Matt Ryan QB Boston College
Cincinnati Bengals 7-9
Needs: LB,DL,G,S,TE
Offense: Ocho Cinco must come back for 2008, and Marvin Lewis has said the disenchanted diva isn't going anywhere. Even with WR Chad Johnson back, the offense will have to do a better job protecting QB Carson Palmer and opening lanes for RB Rudi Johnson as the line did NOT play well this past season. Without a consistent running game, Palmer was erratic and often missed the kind of throws he routinely makes. A young tight end who could help give the Bengals another blocker in the run game as well as a receiver down the middle would help tremendously. Offensive line depth and tight end are really the only weaknesses on offense. While guard is not particularly deep position in this year's draft, there are a number of tackles who would add depth. Also, the tight end class is athletic and capable of making an impact right away, especially with Palmer at the helm.
Defense:The kind of underachieving going on in Cinci would get most coaches fired. However, the Bengals have been so terrible for so long that management has been giving Marvin Lewis the benefit of the doubt since Lewis put this team back in the playoffs. The reality is, Lewis' defense (his supposed specialty) has been awful. Probably their best defensive player, Justin Smith, was franchised, and will likely take his services elsewhere. They could also lose starting linebacker Landon Johnson from a defense that struggled to get 11 guys on the field in '07. Now, the defense could switch to a 3-4 when they don't have any linebackers to the begin with. Linebacker and defensive line certainly seem like top priorities then for a team whose offense has never really struggled to score points. Expect a front 7 defensive player who can help this defense right away. Otherwise, the #1 safety in the draft Kenny Phillips might remind Lewis of one of his former players, Miami S Ed Reed, and could certainly garner consideration. Another 7-9 season for Marvin Lewis and he may not get this much leniency.
Projected 1st Round Pick: Kenny Phillips S Miami (Fla.)
Needs: OL,S,WR,OLB,DE
Offense: The smash-mouth Pittsburgh Steelers of old were not the Steelers we saw in 2007. Willie Parker pounded the football, but the Steelers offensive line struggled in pass protected and often failed to get the "tough" yards when they needed them. Now, Pittsburgh faces losing their Pro Bowl G Alan Faneca to free agency. The guard class is weak in the draft, but there are some players in free agency. If the Steelers do go after a free agent guard, expect it to be one of the low-cost variety. Pittsburgh has tremendous talent at the skill positions, but Hines Ward is getting old and Cedric Wilson is a third receiver at best. Some help outside will give Big Ben another option and improve an already explosive offense.
Defense: The 2007 Steelers certainly did not remind anyone of the days of Mean Joe Green or Jack Lambert. Pittsburgh struggled with fundamentals, missing tackles and blowing coverage. S Anthony Smith probably lost his job after his failed guarantee, but he was probably better suited for a special teams/backup role anyway. Lawrence Timmons and LaMarr Woodley were picked in the first two rounds last year to give the Steelers pressure package more punch, but the Steelers D just dwindled down the stretch. Pittsburgh could also use depth at corner. For the first time in a while, the Steelers D must be upgraded to compete in the AFC North much less the rest of the AFC.
Projected 1st Round Pick: Jeffrey Otah OT Pittsburgh
Baltimore Ravens 5-11
Needs: QB,CB,WR,LB,OL
Offense: With off-season coaching changes inevitable each year, Baltimore was probably the most attractive job in 2008. An aging but talented defensive nucleus, coupled with inconsistent but talented offense, implies the Ravens can turn their ship around next season. 5-11 coming off 13-3 is a good way to get a head coach fired. Brian Billick learned that the hard way, but Billick had long worn out his welcome as many expected him to get the ax after 2005. John Harbough will replace Billick, making the short trip from Philly. Cam Cameron will run the offense lead by Troy Smith, Kyle Boller, or potentially someone for the '08 draft class. Musa Smith could leave but the Ravens already have Mike Anderson. The offensive line is a question with Jonathan Ogden's status in doubt. The Ravens staff scouting OT's heavily at the senior bowl, the 2nd and third rounds could certainly be the place they address that need.
Defensive: Terrell Suggs represents the only major potential free agent loss and signing him ought to be a top priority. With Harbough's background in defensive backfields, the aging secondary will likely take a new form in 2008 ( DRC, and number of other CB's are very much on the radar). No matter who is back there, Rex Ryan will get the most of that defense, the strength of this Ravens team. Baltimore lacks balance in terms of experience on defense and certainly needs to add young talent to build for the future as well as add insurance in case of injury this season. If they can settle on a quarterback early, this will be a much improved team in 2008.
Projected 1st Round Pick: #8 Matt Ryan QB Boston College
Cincinnati Bengals 7-9
Needs: LB,DL,G,S,TE
Offense: Ocho Cinco must come back for 2008, and Marvin Lewis has said the disenchanted diva isn't going anywhere. Even with WR Chad Johnson back, the offense will have to do a better job protecting QB Carson Palmer and opening lanes for RB Rudi Johnson as the line did NOT play well this past season. Without a consistent running game, Palmer was erratic and often missed the kind of throws he routinely makes. A young tight end who could help give the Bengals another blocker in the run game as well as a receiver down the middle would help tremendously. Offensive line depth and tight end are really the only weaknesses on offense. While guard is not particularly deep position in this year's draft, there are a number of tackles who would add depth. Also, the tight end class is athletic and capable of making an impact right away, especially with Palmer at the helm.
Defense:The kind of underachieving going on in Cinci would get most coaches fired. However, the Bengals have been so terrible for so long that management has been giving Marvin Lewis the benefit of the doubt since Lewis put this team back in the playoffs. The reality is, Lewis' defense (his supposed specialty) has been awful. Probably their best defensive player, Justin Smith, was franchised, and will likely take his services elsewhere. They could also lose starting linebacker Landon Johnson from a defense that struggled to get 11 guys on the field in '07. Now, the defense could switch to a 3-4 when they don't have any linebackers to the begin with. Linebacker and defensive line certainly seem like top priorities then for a team whose offense has never really struggled to score points. Expect a front 7 defensive player who can help this defense right away. Otherwise, the #1 safety in the draft Kenny Phillips might remind Lewis of one of his former players, Miami S Ed Reed, and could certainly garner consideration. Another 7-9 season for Marvin Lewis and he may not get this much leniency.
Projected 1st Round Pick: Kenny Phillips S Miami (Fla.)
Cleveland Browns 10-6
Needs: CB,WR,RT,LB,S
Offense: Considering how long the Cleveland Browns have been mired in mediocrity, it would be easy simply be happy with 10-6. However, if anyone knows how hard it is to win in the NFL it is the Cleveland Browns. That is why they have made contract offers to both QB Derek Anderson and RB Jamal Lewis, hoping to keep their chore from last season intact. The QB situation is a murky one with Brady Quinn waiting in the wings, but all signs point to Anderson being the starter in '08. In order for 2008 to result in a playoff birth the Browns must get a wide receiver to help ease the burden on rising stars WR Braylon Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow Jr. The Browns were scouting receivers heavily at the Senior Bowl, and they may even use their 2nd round pick to grab one. Regardless of whether or not Jamal Lewis comes back, the Browns also would like to add a running back in the draft.
Defense: the Browns would love to add depth in their secondary. The defense played considerably better this past season and with Romeo Crennel staying on as coach, they should be even better in 2008. Rush OLB Willie McGinest cannot play forever, and the Browns were very interested in linebackers at the Senior Bowl. In Crennel's 3-4, a team can never have too many linebackers and we may see multiple linebackers taken to bolster that group. Also, the Brown defensive lineman are nothing special. A young defense end who can pressure would probably help prolong McGinest's career. If they stay healthy, the Browns could be a very dangerous team next season.
Projected 2nd Round Pick: Antoine Cason CB Arizona
Needs: OL,S,WR,OLB,DE
Offense: The smash-mouth Pittsburgh Steelers of old were not the Steelers we saw in 2007. Willie Parker pounded the football, but the Steelers offensive line struggled in pass protected and often failed to get the "tough" yards when they needed them. Now, Pittsburgh faces losing their Pro Bowl G Alan Faneca to free agency. The guard class is weak in the draft, but there are some players in free agency. If the Steelers do go after a free agent guard, expect it to be one of the low-cost variety. Pittsburgh has tremendous talent at the skill positions, but Hines Ward is getting old and Cedric Wilson is a third receiver at best. Some help outside will give Big Ben another option and improve an already explosive offense.
Defense: The 2007 Steelers certainly did not remind anyone of the days of Mean Joe Green or Jack Lambert. Pittsburgh struggled with fundamentals, missing tackles and blowing coverage. S Anthony Smith probably lost his job after his failed guarantee, but he was probably better suited for a special teams/backup role anyway. Lawrence Timmons and LaMarr Woodley were picked in the first two rounds last year to give the Steelers pressure package more punch, but the Steelers D just dwindled down the stretch. Pittsburgh could also use depth at corner. For the first time in a while, the Steelers D must be upgraded to compete in the AFC North much less the rest of the AFC.
Projected 1st Round Pick: Jeffrey Otah OT Pittsburgh
Friday, February 15, 2008
NFL Off-Season Preview: NFC South
While the NFC South got only one team into the playoffs (a team that barely finished .500), the NFC South was actually highly competitive within the division. Both the Saints and the Panthers finished 7-9, while the Falcons played much better late in the year. Since 2003 every member of the division has finished 1st at least once and Tampa is the only team to have done it twice in that span. However, since 2002 when NFL realigned and created the NFC South as its currently constituted, the division has had a Super Bowl winner, Super Bowl Loser, and two losses in the NFC Championship game. The South is both highly competitive and highly volatile. Any team, perhaps with the exception of Atlanta, could win in 2008 and that could mean the teams could stand pat knowing they have a shot, or make them aggressive knowing they are just a few pieces away. Just like the division over the past 5 years, it is hard to predict.
New Orleans Saints 7-9
Needs: CB,DT,WR,LB,TE
Offense: Sean Payton's offense outmaneuvered itself early on, trying to get too cute and too creative in using Reggie Bush. With Duece McAllister gone, Bush predictably struggled carrying the load. A healthy backfield should provide the Saints with a formidable backfield. Drew Brees struggled early, but eventually found his groove by mid-season and got the Saints back in to the playoff race, falling short in week 17. Now, the Saints could lose starters WR Devery Henderson and TE Eric Johnson as well as slot receiver Terrance Copper to free agency. The Saints will likely attempt to retain Copper, who the coaches really like, but either way depth at wide receiver is a concern. The scouts at the Senior Bowl seemed keen on a few players in the early-mid rounds like Andre Caldwell and Devin Thomas. Eric Johnson could return, but the Saints could stand to upgrade there with a player like John Carlson 0r Martellus Bennett in the 2nd round. The Saints liked TE Kellen Davis at the Senior Bowl and he could be a potential target in the mid-rounds as well.
Defense: In '07 the defense really let the Saints down. The Colts torched them early on and it was all downhill from there. One of the only regular contributors, LB Mark Simoneau, is an UFA and the Saints will look to strengthen their linebacking core. Finding a corner to play opposite Mike McKenzie has been a struggle since McKenzie arrived in New Orleans and last season proved the Saints need to find a suitable replacement to have any chance at the playoffs. Getting a big body in the middle to help plug the run is also a key defensive priority for the off-season. There is considerably more depth at corner than DT so reaching for someone like DT Kentwan Balmer with the 10th pick and address their corner situation in later rounds would be a viable option.
Projected 1st Round Pick: #10 Mike Jenkins CB South Florida
Atlanta Falcons 4-12
Needs: QB,OL,DT,LB,WR,S
Offense: Where don't the Atlanta Falcons need to improve? Offensively, the Falcons don't have a quarterback, offensive line continuity (or much talent), a #1 running back, or a system everyone is familiar with. The good news is they won't be losing the talent they DO have, including Roddy White and Jerious Norwood, so the thought is they can only improve (They just cut Pro Bowl TE Alge Crumpler). Warrick Dunn may retire and for the Falcons sake, he should. Coach Smith has said he wants a power run game much like the Jags had with Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones Drew, but Neither Warrick Dunn nor Jerious Norwood fit that bill. Bobby Petrino for Darren McFadden would be an awfully nice trade for the Falcons. Don't be surprised if the Falcons pass on a QB in the first round to take the explosive back from Arkansas, particularly with the way Adrian Peterson took over the league this past season. Plenty of holes means plenty of work for the new coaching staff, but with 3 picks in the first 2 rounds and an owner willing to spend, the dirty birds will certainly have the means to improve this team right away.
Defense: the Falcons may lose linebackers Demorrio Williams, and Michael Boley two of the few playmakers they have. New head coach Mike Smith will look to add discipline and toughness to a team that has been under-coached for quite a while. The Falcons will have to replace DT Rod Coleman whom they cut this week. Smith had one of the best interior defensive lines in the NFL with Henderson and Stroud in Jacksonville and with the 4-3 defense, the Falcons will have to add along the interior. Safety must also be addressed as Lawyer Milloy has clearly lost a step and Chris Crocker is barely average. Making sure they hold onto Williams and Boley in free agency will allow the Falcons to narrow in on adding on the defensive front and backfield in the draft.
Projected 1st Round Pick: Darren McFadden RB Arkansas
Carolina Panthers 7-9
Needs: WR,DL,S,QB,TE
Offense: Somehow the Carolina Panthers won 7 games last season, despite starting Matt Moore, Vinny Testaverde, and David Carr at quarterback. That probably makes it possible for Jon Fox to avoid taking a QB in the first round, but the Panthers face the prospect of losing a number of key starters via free agency. WR Drew Carter, WR Keary Colbert, RT Jordan Gross, are all FA’s and the Panthers recently cut G Mike Wahle who has since signed with the Seahawks. That could mean a number of new faces in the starting lineup for 2008. The Panthers did sign LT Travelle Wharton, to a long term deal, and must do the same with Gross to sure up the offensive front. The Panther staff was checking out tackle prospects at the Senior Bowl, hoping to be able to fill potential gaps. The offense is predicated on that power run game, so making sure DeAngelo Williams and DeShaun Foster can get their yards is of the utmost importance (Particularly if they expect to start Matt Moore for 17 weeks). The Panthers like WR Dwayne Jarrett along side Steve Smith, but with Colbert and Carter both potentially gone, they must find another weapon whether at WR or TE. Also, if a guy like Brian Brohm is still there, don't be surprised if the Panthers take him. They were looking at QB's at the Senior Bowl and Jake Delhomme hasn't played consistently enough to prove he is a long-term solution.
Defense: DE Mike Rucker, and LB Na'il Diggs are free agents and Dan Morgan was released from a defense that underachieved last season. Defensive end and linebacker were priorities at the Senior Bowl as Carolina appears dedicated to getting younger and more athletic in their front 7. The Panthers were second to last in the league in sacking the quarterback with just 23. DE Chris Ellis from Virginia Tech caught the eye of the Panthers staff and if they look WR or QB in the first round, he could certainly be a possibility in the 2nd or even the 3rd. Carolina resigned S Chris Harris, but his counterpart Deke Cooper is better suited playing special teams. The Panthers will look to both free agency and the draft to find a suitable running mate for Harris in the defensive backfield.
New Orleans Saints 7-9
Needs: CB,DT,WR,LB,TE
Offense: Sean Payton's offense outmaneuvered itself early on, trying to get too cute and too creative in using Reggie Bush. With Duece McAllister gone, Bush predictably struggled carrying the load. A healthy backfield should provide the Saints with a formidable backfield. Drew Brees struggled early, but eventually found his groove by mid-season and got the Saints back in to the playoff race, falling short in week 17. Now, the Saints could lose starters WR Devery Henderson and TE Eric Johnson as well as slot receiver Terrance Copper to free agency. The Saints will likely attempt to retain Copper, who the coaches really like, but either way depth at wide receiver is a concern. The scouts at the Senior Bowl seemed keen on a few players in the early-mid rounds like Andre Caldwell and Devin Thomas. Eric Johnson could return, but the Saints could stand to upgrade there with a player like John Carlson 0r Martellus Bennett in the 2nd round. The Saints liked TE Kellen Davis at the Senior Bowl and he could be a potential target in the mid-rounds as well.
Defense: In '07 the defense really let the Saints down. The Colts torched them early on and it was all downhill from there. One of the only regular contributors, LB Mark Simoneau, is an UFA and the Saints will look to strengthen their linebacking core. Finding a corner to play opposite Mike McKenzie has been a struggle since McKenzie arrived in New Orleans and last season proved the Saints need to find a suitable replacement to have any chance at the playoffs. Getting a big body in the middle to help plug the run is also a key defensive priority for the off-season. There is considerably more depth at corner than DT so reaching for someone like DT Kentwan Balmer with the 10th pick and address their corner situation in later rounds would be a viable option.
Projected 1st Round Pick: #10 Mike Jenkins CB South Florida
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-7
Needs: OL,CB,LB,WR,RB
Offense: Interesting that a Florida team would be lead on offense by two of the elder statesmen in the NFL. WR Joey Galloway and QB Jeff Garcia flourished under Jon Gruden last season before faltering in he playoffs. The Buccaneers have shown concern over the running back situation with Cadillac Williams knee injury still giving him problems. RB Earnest Graham was the savior of the running game last season and the Bucs just signed RB Michael Bennett for insurance purposes. In front of them is a young, but talented group, although the Bucs could certainly use another blue chipper or two to help facilitate the offense. Joey Galloway also needs help at receiver. The Bucs like WR Jordy Nelson from Kansas State and with more pressing needs could address the WR issue in the mid-rounds.
Defense: Tampa Bay's defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin has been one of the most consistent defensive coaches ever. Year in and year out, the Bucs are lead by their defense, and there recent resurgence can be traced to the inspired defensive play. However, the defense, much like Kiffin, is very old at key positions. CB Brian Kelly is a free agent and Ronde Barber isn't getting any younger. OLB Derrick Brooks will turn 35 before the season and his counterpart OLB Cato June was hurt most of the season. Getting some help at linebacker will be key to patching up the holes on the defensive side of the ball. DB Dejuan Tribble of BC would be a perfect fit for the Bucs aggressive D in the mid-rounds as well.
Projected 1st Round Pick: #20 Dan Connor LB Penn State
NFL Off-season Preview: AFC East
Outside of the New England Patriots, the AFC East was atrocious. However, the Jets are just a season removed from a 10-6 playoff season, and the Bills remain just a few pieces away from competing for the playoffs. The only potential pushover in 2008 will be the Dolphins coming off a 1-15 campaign. Bill Parcells hopes to turn things around quickly and with the #1 pick, the Dolphins will start the rebuilding process. Only the Patriots will be hit hard by free agency and pending retirement so look for the rest of the East to close to gap with the Patriots.
Needs: DE/OLB,WR,G,CB,LB
Offense: Chad Pennington appears to be shipping out, and at times Kellen Clemens flashed the kind of play making ability the coaches expected from him. That said, the offense played with very little consistency, party because of the inexperience at QB, but also the lack of explosion in the running game. Thomas Jones rushed for over 1,000 yards, but teams often loaded up against the run because they didn't think Clemens could beat them. Jerricho Cotchery and Laveraneus Coles are dynamic on the outside, but both struggled with drops and Coles had injury problems. Cotchery is the #1 of the future, but Brad Smith and Justin McCareins are not anything special. The Jets could definitely benefit from an upgrade at WR and along the offensive line to help Jones and Clemens.
Defense: John Abraham's absence played a huge role in the lack of pressure the Jets put in opposing QB's in '07. New York's 3-4 defense simply wasn't aggressive enough and failed to get to the quarterback. Darrelle Revis and Kerry Rhodes are young, talented defensive backs, but the Jets need to get better pressure to give their corners and safeties a chance. The Jets were reportedly salivating over Vernon Gholston at the Senior Bowl and he could definitely be there at #6. New York wants to add additional depth at both corner and safety, and with a deep defensive back class, there could be multiple picks addressing the defensive backfield in the draft.
Projected 1st Round Pick: #6 Vernon Gholston DE Ohio State
Buffalo Bills 8-8
Needs: WR,TE,CB,DT,LB
Offense: Another off-season in Buffalo, another batch of questions about youth, continuity, and talent. A few certainties? Trent Edwards is the quarterback and they can win with him. Marshawn Lynch is a punishing runner who fits this Bills team perfectly. We also know the Bills have solid edge rushers, but little else on defense. That means there are quite a bit of holes on a team that actually went 8-8. Buffalo returns basically everything from that 8-8 team, including a putrid offense, 30th in points, passing, and total yards. Lee Evans provides basically the only explosion offensively as Roscoe Parish does most of his damage on special teams. The Bills desperately need to get him and Trent Edwards some more weapons in the passing game, which will likely mean a WR and/or TE on the first day of the draft. Guys like WR Malcolm Kelly or TE Martellus Bennett would really help Trent Edwards develop and this offense to add balance.
Defensive: The Bills will get Paul Posluszny back at linebacker which will be huge for a defense that was in the bottom of just about every defensive category. Buffalo's D was decimated by injuries next year and their lack of depth was exposed. They will likely look to add at just about every position defensively particularly at cornerback and defensive tackle.
Miama Dolphins 1-15
Needs: OL,DL,CB,WR,QB
Offense: The Miami Dolphins can officially begin the player personnel portion of their off-season now that the coaching staff has been completely assembled. The Dolphins come off a 1-15 season and look to be a team full of holes. Fortunately, the only significant potential FA loss is QB Cleo Lemon who lost his starting job to rookie John Beck a little more than halfway through the season. I keep hearing Matt Ryan as the #1 overall pick (See ESPN's two headed draft monster Kiper Jr./McShay) but look at the QB's Bill Parcells has taken to the playoffs(Quincy Carter!!) and it becomes hard for me to imagine using the top pick on a quarterback. The offensive line could be the place to start, with Sparano and Parcells both having offensive line backgrounds. Jake Long would be an upgrade at either tackle spot and could provide for Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams much like Joe Thomas did this past season for Jamal Lewis.
Defense: The defense is aging leading to Zach Thomas' release. Also the future of Jason Taylor remain undecided. Upgrades all along the front 7 will be needed for this defense to return to the level it was several years ago, not to mention serious help in the secondary. The Dolphins scouts keyed on defensive line and cornerbacks at the Senior Bowl. Matt Ryan seems to be the early favorite to be the #1 pick, but Bill Parcells and Chris Long together makes too much sense at this point for me to believe they will go anywhere else. The QB class is deep and a guy like Chad Henne is not that much worse than Brohm, where Long is considerably better than a player like Calais Campbell or Lawrence Jackson (Potential Round 2 DE's)
Projected 1st Round Pick: Chris Long DE Virginia
New England Patriots 16-0
Needs: CB,LB,S,RB,OL
Offense: What is there to say about an offense that scored more points than any team in history and returns at least 10 starters, maybe 11 if Randy Moss doesn't hit the open market. If the Pats can keep Moss, there really aren't any holes on offense. They could use some depth up front and maybe depth at running back as Kevin Faulk is getting old. With the same coaching staff, same system, and same QB (I think his name is something Brady), the Pats offense will be extremely dangerous again assuming they stay healthy. The Patriots will shop their pick from the 49ers at 7 saving money to resign Moss, especially when you consider no CB really warrants top 10 selection.
Defense: Already the Achilles heel if the team, the Pats D will be another year older and will likely lose CB Asante Samuel and CB/S Randall Gay to free agency. That means the Pats will have to do serious talent searching to bolster that unit. In addition, ILB's Tedy Bruschi and Junior Seau are well into their 30's and could retire. Bruschi is a free agent as it is, although New England would certainly consider bringing him back if he was willing to do so at a discount. The 2008 Patriots will be dynamic on offense, but any 19-0 talk for this team will likely be over by mid-season.
Projected 1st Round Draft Pick: #7 Ryan Clady OT Boise State
Needs: DE/OLB,WR,G,CB,LB
Offense: Chad Pennington appears to be shipping out, and at times Kellen Clemens flashed the kind of play making ability the coaches expected from him. That said, the offense played with very little consistency, party because of the inexperience at QB, but also the lack of explosion in the running game. Thomas Jones rushed for over 1,000 yards, but teams often loaded up against the run because they didn't think Clemens could beat them. Jerricho Cotchery and Laveraneus Coles are dynamic on the outside, but both struggled with drops and Coles had injury problems. Cotchery is the #1 of the future, but Brad Smith and Justin McCareins are not anything special. The Jets could definitely benefit from an upgrade at WR and along the offensive line to help Jones and Clemens.
Defense: John Abraham's absence played a huge role in the lack of pressure the Jets put in opposing QB's in '07. New York's 3-4 defense simply wasn't aggressive enough and failed to get to the quarterback. Darrelle Revis and Kerry Rhodes are young, talented defensive backs, but the Jets need to get better pressure to give their corners and safeties a chance. The Jets were reportedly salivating over Vernon Gholston at the Senior Bowl and he could definitely be there at #6. New York wants to add additional depth at both corner and safety, and with a deep defensive back class, there could be multiple picks addressing the defensive backfield in the draft.
Projected 1st Round Pick: #6 Vernon Gholston DE Ohio State
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
NFL Off-Season Preview: NFC West
Back in August, a few "expert" sportswriters picked the NFC West to be the most competitive division in the NFL. In January, the West had no playoff wins, only one team with a winning record and two teams who failed to win 6 games. The Cardinals and 49ers were both trendy picks to make the playoffs, and neither finished over .500. Seattle remains the favorite to win the West again in 2008, but the rest of the West is comprised of a talented bunch of underachievers, who may be just a few pieces away from really competing. Seattle, if they can get keep their key pieces, look poised to take the West. If they can't, the race for the top spot and a playoff birth will be wide open.
Arizona Cardinals 8-8
Needs: OL, LB/DE, RB,S
Offense: In 2007, the Cardinals could have very easily been in the playoffs in a very weak division. 8-8 could have very easily been 10-6, and in this league that simply represents a lost opportunity. The NFC West should improve next season, but to fair, so too should the Cards. Matt Leinart is the quarterback of this team and he needs to have some job security to succeed. Throwing to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin helps, but the Cards will likely lose Bryant Johnson to free agency. Look for the Cards to find a replacement in the middle to late rounds of the draft. Edgerrin James hasn't been explosive since coming to the desert, but his line has been extremely inconsistent. The Cardinals would like to improve both areas on offense so don't be surprised to hear Michael Turner's name come up, or if the Cardinals draft a guy like Jonathan Stewart or Richard Mendenhall in the first round. The Cards scouting team closely followed the talented running backs and offensive tackles at the Senior Bowl.
Defensive: 'Zona plans to change defensive schemes to a more aggressive 3-4 look for 2008. That means retaining 26 year old OLB Karlos Dansby has to be a top priority. Adding athletic linebackers who can cover and rush the passer will certainly play into how the Cards attack both the draft and free agency. DT Darnell Docket was a late addition to the Pro Bowl roster and is strong inside. With DE Bertrand Berry, Docket and Dansby formed a formidable trio up front. But beyond that, the defense must be upgraded. Derrick Harvey and Keith Rivers are possibilities in the first round. At the Senior Bowl the Cardinals reportedly focused heavily on pass rushers. Expect the defensive backfield to be addressed in free agency as they let the young corners grow.
Projected 1st Round Draft Pick: #16 Derrick Harvey DE Florida
San Francisco 49ers 5-11
Needs: OL,WR,OLB,S,DE
Offense: The offense in San Fran was so terrible, one might forget that Joe Montana, Roger Craig, Steve Young, and Jerry Rice were part of the some of the greatest offenses ever in the city with the Golden Gate. Enter Mike Martz. The offensive evil genius will bring his brand of aggressive offense to the 32nd ranked scoring and passing offense in the league last season. Alex Smith played extremely poorly last season and head coach Mike Nolan even questioned his QB's toughness. The 49ers do have RB Frank Gore and explosive TE Vernon Davis, but lack at wide receiver. Mike Nolan and his coaching staff had the privilege and the advantage of coaching at the Senior Bowl where they reportedly fell in love with LSU WR Early Doucet III. He is a definite possibility in round 1 for a receiving chore without premier talent.
Defense: Bringing in guys like Nate Clements was supposed to help the 49er D come back to respectability. As it turns out, rookie MLB was the best defensive player on a San Fran defense that finished in the bottom 12 in points against, rushing D, and passing D. Bryant Young, a stalwart for so many years in San Francisco, has retired and leaves a huge void on an already weak defensive line. The 49ers will certainly look to add depth at just about every defensive line position as well as pass rushing hybrid linebackers for their 3-4 system. Tully Banta-Cain did not provide the kind of lift they'd hoped for pressuring the quarterback and former first round pick Manny Lawson was lost for the season in week two. The 49ers have to get better defensively to give their struggling offense some short fields and opportunities to score quickly.
Projected 1st Round Pick: # 29 Early Doucet III WR LSU
Seattle Seahawks 10-6
Needs: G,RB,WR,S,TE
Offense: Shaun Alexander was the MVP of the NFL in 2005. The 2007 Seattle Seahawks finished 20th in the NFL in rushing, thanks mostly to Alexander's inability to create anything explosive in the running game. Mo' Morris didn't fair much better, although he is certainly more of a home run hitter. Losing G Steve Hutchinson was a huge mistake and an enormous blow to both run and pass blocking. Finding a suitable replacement for Hutchinson and Alexander (about a year too late on both) must be priority number one for the Seahawks who will only have Mike Holmgren for one more season. Seattle may also lose WR D.J. Hackett and apparently really liked Texas WR Limas Sweed. The 'Hawks could use help at both WR and TE and there is plenty of talent at the top to warrant a first day pick.
Defense: Although the Seahawks have been perceived as an offense based team since Mike Holmgren has been there, the 2007 'Hawks were carried in many games by their defense. Seattle's D was one of the best team in the league at getting to the quarterback and did so with All-Pro Patrick Kearney and the front 4. Marcus Trufant and Lofa Tatupu are legitimate defensive stars and created all kinds of problems for opposing offenses. But that means Seattle HAS to sign Trufant to a long-term deal after his Pro Bowl season. Seattle's safeties are old and not very athletic. They will likely target a young safety to grow and with future head coach Jim Mora Jr. an defensive backs expert, he should be able to help the Seahawks right away.
Projected 1st Round Pick: #25 Felix Jones RB Arkansas
St. Louis Rams 3-13
Needs:OT, LB,S,CB,QB
Offense: The greatest show on turf quickly became a show with little worth. Pardon the pun, but the St. Louis Rams offense was prolific, even just last season. Injuries played a major role in the deterioration of efficiency, but even when QB Marc Bulger andRB Stephen Jackson were healthy at the end of the season, the Rams still had trouble winning games. Bulger may not be long for this world, especially if he can't stay healthy. It's also never a good sign when arguably your best player has to tell everyone he's NOT retiring. Even with OT Orlando Pace coming back, the Rams must find a tackle in the draft, I just don't expect it to happen in the first round. You can't go 3-13 and then draft an offensive lineman who will sit for a year.
Defense: The Rams hoped Jim Haslett would bring respectability to a defense that has been less than stellar for quite sometime. Adam Carriker made a smooth transition from end to tackle for the Rams, but if Glenn Dorsey is available, it isn't out of the question for him to switch back. DE's Leonard Little and James Hall could not get pressure on anyone and having Dorsey at DT and Carriker at DE would give the Rams a far more potent pass rush. O.J. Atogwe had a breakout season at safety and the corners are decent. The linebackers are sub-par and lack explosion. Also starting OLB Brandon Chillar is a free agent and will likely test the market. Expect to see a great deal of defense donning Rams jerseys in April.
Projected 1st Round Pick: #2 Glenn Dorsey DT LSU
Arizona Cardinals 8-8
Needs: OL, LB/DE, RB,S
Offense: In 2007, the Cardinals could have very easily been in the playoffs in a very weak division. 8-8 could have very easily been 10-6, and in this league that simply represents a lost opportunity. The NFC West should improve next season, but to fair, so too should the Cards. Matt Leinart is the quarterback of this team and he needs to have some job security to succeed. Throwing to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin helps, but the Cards will likely lose Bryant Johnson to free agency. Look for the Cards to find a replacement in the middle to late rounds of the draft. Edgerrin James hasn't been explosive since coming to the desert, but his line has been extremely inconsistent. The Cardinals would like to improve both areas on offense so don't be surprised to hear Michael Turner's name come up, or if the Cardinals draft a guy like Jonathan Stewart or Richard Mendenhall in the first round. The Cards scouting team closely followed the talented running backs and offensive tackles at the Senior Bowl.
Defensive: 'Zona plans to change defensive schemes to a more aggressive 3-4 look for 2008. That means retaining 26 year old OLB Karlos Dansby has to be a top priority. Adding athletic linebackers who can cover and rush the passer will certainly play into how the Cards attack both the draft and free agency. DT Darnell Docket was a late addition to the Pro Bowl roster and is strong inside. With DE Bertrand Berry, Docket and Dansby formed a formidable trio up front. But beyond that, the defense must be upgraded. Derrick Harvey and Keith Rivers are possibilities in the first round. At the Senior Bowl the Cardinals reportedly focused heavily on pass rushers. Expect the defensive backfield to be addressed in free agency as they let the young corners grow.
Projected 1st Round Draft Pick: #16 Derrick Harvey DE Florida
San Francisco 49ers 5-11
Needs: OL,WR,OLB,S,DE
Offense: The offense in San Fran was so terrible, one might forget that Joe Montana, Roger Craig, Steve Young, and Jerry Rice were part of the some of the greatest offenses ever in the city with the Golden Gate. Enter Mike Martz. The offensive evil genius will bring his brand of aggressive offense to the 32nd ranked scoring and passing offense in the league last season. Alex Smith played extremely poorly last season and head coach Mike Nolan even questioned his QB's toughness. The 49ers do have RB Frank Gore and explosive TE Vernon Davis, but lack at wide receiver. Mike Nolan and his coaching staff had the privilege and the advantage of coaching at the Senior Bowl where they reportedly fell in love with LSU WR Early Doucet III. He is a definite possibility in round 1 for a receiving chore without premier talent.
Defense: Bringing in guys like Nate Clements was supposed to help the 49er D come back to respectability. As it turns out, rookie MLB was the best defensive player on a San Fran defense that finished in the bottom 12 in points against, rushing D, and passing D. Bryant Young, a stalwart for so many years in San Francisco, has retired and leaves a huge void on an already weak defensive line. The 49ers will certainly look to add depth at just about every defensive line position as well as pass rushing hybrid linebackers for their 3-4 system. Tully Banta-Cain did not provide the kind of lift they'd hoped for pressuring the quarterback and former first round pick Manny Lawson was lost for the season in week two. The 49ers have to get better defensively to give their struggling offense some short fields and opportunities to score quickly.
Projected 1st Round Pick: # 29 Early Doucet III WR LSU
Seattle Seahawks 10-6
Needs: G,RB,WR,S,TE
Offense: Shaun Alexander was the MVP of the NFL in 2005. The 2007 Seattle Seahawks finished 20th in the NFL in rushing, thanks mostly to Alexander's inability to create anything explosive in the running game. Mo' Morris didn't fair much better, although he is certainly more of a home run hitter. Losing G Steve Hutchinson was a huge mistake and an enormous blow to both run and pass blocking. Finding a suitable replacement for Hutchinson and Alexander (about a year too late on both) must be priority number one for the Seahawks who will only have Mike Holmgren for one more season. Seattle may also lose WR D.J. Hackett and apparently really liked Texas WR Limas Sweed. The 'Hawks could use help at both WR and TE and there is plenty of talent at the top to warrant a first day pick.
Defense: Although the Seahawks have been perceived as an offense based team since Mike Holmgren has been there, the 2007 'Hawks were carried in many games by their defense. Seattle's D was one of the best team in the league at getting to the quarterback and did so with All-Pro Patrick Kearney and the front 4. Marcus Trufant and Lofa Tatupu are legitimate defensive stars and created all kinds of problems for opposing offenses. But that means Seattle HAS to sign Trufant to a long-term deal after his Pro Bowl season. Seattle's safeties are old and not very athletic. They will likely target a young safety to grow and with future head coach Jim Mora Jr. an defensive backs expert, he should be able to help the Seahawks right away.
Projected 1st Round Pick: #25 Felix Jones RB Arkansas
St. Louis Rams 3-13
Needs:OT, LB,S,CB,QB
Offense: The greatest show on turf quickly became a show with little worth. Pardon the pun, but the St. Louis Rams offense was prolific, even just last season. Injuries played a major role in the deterioration of efficiency, but even when QB Marc Bulger andRB Stephen Jackson were healthy at the end of the season, the Rams still had trouble winning games. Bulger may not be long for this world, especially if he can't stay healthy. It's also never a good sign when arguably your best player has to tell everyone he's NOT retiring. Even with OT Orlando Pace coming back, the Rams must find a tackle in the draft, I just don't expect it to happen in the first round. You can't go 3-13 and then draft an offensive lineman who will sit for a year.
Defense: The Rams hoped Jim Haslett would bring respectability to a defense that has been less than stellar for quite sometime. Adam Carriker made a smooth transition from end to tackle for the Rams, but if Glenn Dorsey is available, it isn't out of the question for him to switch back. DE's Leonard Little and James Hall could not get pressure on anyone and having Dorsey at DT and Carriker at DE would give the Rams a far more potent pass rush. O.J. Atogwe had a breakout season at safety and the corners are decent. The linebackers are sub-par and lack explosion. Also starting OLB Brandon Chillar is a free agent and will likely test the market. Expect to see a great deal of defense donning Rams jerseys in April.
Projected 1st Round Pick: #2 Glenn Dorsey DT LSU
NFL Off-Season Preview: AFC South
The AFC South had as many teams in the 2007 Playoffs as the other 3 conferences combined. That left just the Texans out of the playoffs, but they finished a respectable 8-8. That made them the only division in the NFL without a team under .500. The Texans and Titans play the Colts extremely tough and the South is very much up for grabs in 2008. Injuries and off-season strength will play an enormous role in determining the division crown and who gets into the playoffs. The South could easily get 3 into the post-season once again in 2008 and don't be surprised if the 4th team is right there as well.
Houston Texans 8-8 Needs: DB,OL,WR,RB,LB
Offense: Gary Kubiak deserves a tremendous amount of credit for giving Texan fans reason to believe their team can be viable, and soon. Matt Schaub is the QB they thought he'd be when he's healthy, and Andre Johnson is becoming an elite wide receiver. To keep improving the Texans will need to find a way to keep pending UFA WR Andre Davis and G Fred Weary . WR Jerome Mathis will also be an UFA and that will negatively effect the offense and return game. Finding more weapons for Matt Schaub will certainly be on the Texans mind come draft day, even running back in the first round would not be surprising, particularly if Stewart or Mendenhall or still on the board. Offensive line will also certainly be a factor in April as the Texans seem interested in getting an offensive tackle in the draft.
Defensive: Mario Williams has proven worthy of the #1 overall, while Demeco Ryans and Amobi Okoye are Pro Bowl caliber players as well. That makes the front office's job much easier because they can be a lot more focused evaluating talent in the off-season. OLB Gary Clark is a free agents, and while he is relatively unknown, he was a key contributors to this team. Defensively, the front 7 played extremely well last season, but the defensive backfield was spotty. They need to improve at safety and corner in order to consistently compete, particularly when you consider they have to see Peyton Manning and Co. twice a year.
Projected 1st Round Draft Pick: Leodis McKelvin CB Troy
Indianapolis Colts 13-3 Needs: DT,LB,OL,S,WR
Offense: For the Colts to remain at the top of the AFC next season resigning UFA's guards Jake Scott and Ryan Lilja must be made the team's top priority. The Colts offense works so efficiently because of the teamwork upfront, whether its pass-protecting or running blocking, or even getting the blocking assignments on Peyton's audibles. Indy simply does not have the bodies to just plug in someone new and expect not to miss a beat. Unfortunately for the Colts, Scott and Lilja aren't the team's only major potential losses in free agency, the team also faces the prospect of loses star TE Dallas Clark.
Defense: The Colts' defense played significantly better this past season, but still could use an upgrade at defensive tackle and linebacker. Dwight Freeney's loss really magnified the weaknesses on defense down the stretch as the Colts weren't able to generate the same pressure, other players had to make plays and couldn't do it. In Tony Dungy's final season, expect the front office to bolster the front 7 to give the Colts D the kind of players Dungy can really help succeed. The Colts don't have a first round pick, having sent it to San Francisco, so the the Colts will narrow in on a few players in key areas to upgrade this defense.
Projected 2nd Round Pick: Tracy Porter CB Iowa
Jacksonville Jaguars 11-5
Needs: WR,LB,S,DE,CB
Offense: On offense, Jacksonville has two Pro-Bowl caliber running backs and an emerging quarterback. In order to make they work effectively, the Jaguars have been looking at offensive tackles in the draft, particularly Gosder Cherilus from Boston College. The offense also needs to add a game changer at wide receiver. The current group is solid, but unspectacular and a deep threat could really give the Jagaurs offense balance and improved potency. Also, losing Quinn Gray in free agency could mean the Jaguars look at a QB in mid-rounds to groom. People forget David Garrard is already 29 and has had problems with injuries.
Defense: In typical Jaguars style, the team has spent the off-season evaluating talent and will be looking to improve upfront on both sides of the ball. The oonly starter who could be lost to free agency would be DE Paul Spicer, however the Jags were looking to upgrade at that position anyway. The loss of defensive coordinator Mike Smith may not be felt as strongly as it would be elsewhere because head coach Jack Del Rio is a former linebacker and has always worked closely with the defense. Upgrades at linebacker and depth in the defensive backfield will likely be important in the Jags off-season plans. Greg Williams will want to continue to add explosion in the front 7 to fit his aggressive style of play.
Projected 1st Round Pick: James Hardy WR Indiana
Tennessee Titans
Needs: WR,CB,LB,DT,OL
Offense: Vince Young made up for the statistic deficiency of the Titans offense his rookie season. in 2007, Young would go 9-22 and the defense would put the Titans in a position to win games. With new offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger, the Titans will be looking to add explosion to this offense. LenDale white emerged as a legitimate number 1 back, but Tennesse could lose RB Chris Brown, WR Justin Gage, and TE Ben Troupe from an offense that was built around a solid running game. Losing Brown will not hurt as much because of White's strong play and Chris Henry in the backfield as well. However, the Titans absolutely must find a receiver who can be a game changer. K Rob Bironas is also a free agent, and with the kind of money top-flight kickers are demanding, the Titans may decide the money would better spent elsewhere.
Defense: The Titans defense carried a team that won 10 games often in spite of its offense. DT Albert Haynesworth was one of the most dominant forces in the NFL on either side of the ball when he was healthy. However, Haynesworth is an unrestricted free agent and it will take serious cash to keep him. Either way, the Titans will look to add a defensive tackle this off-season to either pair with or replace Haynesworth. Cornerback and depth at linebacker would also upgrade an already stellar unit.
Projected 1st Round Pick: Mario Manningham WR Michigan
Houston Texans 8-8 Needs: DB,OL,WR,RB,LB
Offense: Gary Kubiak deserves a tremendous amount of credit for giving Texan fans reason to believe their team can be viable, and soon. Matt Schaub is the QB they thought he'd be when he's healthy, and Andre Johnson is becoming an elite wide receiver. To keep improving the Texans will need to find a way to keep pending UFA WR Andre Davis and G Fred Weary . WR Jerome Mathis will also be an UFA and that will negatively effect the offense and return game. Finding more weapons for Matt Schaub will certainly be on the Texans mind come draft day, even running back in the first round would not be surprising, particularly if Stewart or Mendenhall or still on the board. Offensive line will also certainly be a factor in April as the Texans seem interested in getting an offensive tackle in the draft.
Defensive: Mario Williams has proven worthy of the #1 overall, while Demeco Ryans and Amobi Okoye are Pro Bowl caliber players as well. That makes the front office's job much easier because they can be a lot more focused evaluating talent in the off-season. OLB Gary Clark is a free agents, and while he is relatively unknown, he was a key contributors to this team. Defensively, the front 7 played extremely well last season, but the defensive backfield was spotty. They need to improve at safety and corner in order to consistently compete, particularly when you consider they have to see Peyton Manning and Co. twice a year.
Projected 1st Round Draft Pick: Leodis McKelvin CB Troy
Indianapolis Colts 13-3 Needs: DT,LB,OL,S,WR
Offense: For the Colts to remain at the top of the AFC next season resigning UFA's guards Jake Scott and Ryan Lilja must be made the team's top priority. The Colts offense works so efficiently because of the teamwork upfront, whether its pass-protecting or running blocking, or even getting the blocking assignments on Peyton's audibles. Indy simply does not have the bodies to just plug in someone new and expect not to miss a beat. Unfortunately for the Colts, Scott and Lilja aren't the team's only major potential losses in free agency, the team also faces the prospect of loses star TE Dallas Clark.
Defense: The Colts' defense played significantly better this past season, but still could use an upgrade at defensive tackle and linebacker. Dwight Freeney's loss really magnified the weaknesses on defense down the stretch as the Colts weren't able to generate the same pressure, other players had to make plays and couldn't do it. In Tony Dungy's final season, expect the front office to bolster the front 7 to give the Colts D the kind of players Dungy can really help succeed. The Colts don't have a first round pick, having sent it to San Francisco, so the the Colts will narrow in on a few players in key areas to upgrade this defense.
Projected 2nd Round Pick: Tracy Porter CB Iowa
Jacksonville Jaguars 11-5
Needs: WR,LB,S,DE,CB
Offense: On offense, Jacksonville has two Pro-Bowl caliber running backs and an emerging quarterback. In order to make they work effectively, the Jaguars have been looking at offensive tackles in the draft, particularly Gosder Cherilus from Boston College. The offense also needs to add a game changer at wide receiver. The current group is solid, but unspectacular and a deep threat could really give the Jagaurs offense balance and improved potency. Also, losing Quinn Gray in free agency could mean the Jaguars look at a QB in mid-rounds to groom. People forget David Garrard is already 29 and has had problems with injuries.
Defense: In typical Jaguars style, the team has spent the off-season evaluating talent and will be looking to improve upfront on both sides of the ball. The oonly starter who could be lost to free agency would be DE Paul Spicer, however the Jags were looking to upgrade at that position anyway. The loss of defensive coordinator Mike Smith may not be felt as strongly as it would be elsewhere because head coach Jack Del Rio is a former linebacker and has always worked closely with the defense. Upgrades at linebacker and depth in the defensive backfield will likely be important in the Jags off-season plans. Greg Williams will want to continue to add explosion in the front 7 to fit his aggressive style of play.
Projected 1st Round Pick: James Hardy WR Indiana
Tennessee Titans
Needs: WR,CB,LB,DT,OL
Offense: Vince Young made up for the statistic deficiency of the Titans offense his rookie season. in 2007, Young would go 9-22 and the defense would put the Titans in a position to win games. With new offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger, the Titans will be looking to add explosion to this offense. LenDale white emerged as a legitimate number 1 back, but Tennesse could lose RB Chris Brown, WR Justin Gage, and TE Ben Troupe from an offense that was built around a solid running game. Losing Brown will not hurt as much because of White's strong play and Chris Henry in the backfield as well. However, the Titans absolutely must find a receiver who can be a game changer. K Rob Bironas is also a free agent, and with the kind of money top-flight kickers are demanding, the Titans may decide the money would better spent elsewhere.
Defense: The Titans defense carried a team that won 10 games often in spite of its offense. DT Albert Haynesworth was one of the most dominant forces in the NFL on either side of the ball when he was healthy. However, Haynesworth is an unrestricted free agent and it will take serious cash to keep him. Either way, the Titans will look to add a defensive tackle this off-season to either pair with or replace Haynesworth. Cornerback and depth at linebacker would also upgrade an already stellar unit.
Projected 1st Round Pick: Mario Manningham WR Michigan
Saturday, February 9, 2008
NFL Off-Season Preview: NFC North
The NFC North used to be the the NFC Central, except with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It was known as the black and blue division because every team was physical and they would just beat each other up. This year, with the exception of the Packers, no one in the NFC North was doing much beating of anyone. The Chicago Bears played inconsistently all year and really the only quality games they played were against the Packers. The Lions started out playing extremely well, but their weak early schedule and soft nature proved they were the same old Lions. The Vikings may have found the next star in Adrian Peterson, but their passing offense is pathetic and their pass defense isn't much better. The Green Bay Packers were essentially the only respectable team in the division, but lost at home to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Giants. This young, but talented division was one of 3 in the NFC to have only one team finish above .500. With the AFC South on the schedule this year, don't expect out of division games to be any easier. Each team has some weaknesses, many of them glaring, that will need to be filled this off-season. Here is a look at how each team will likely attack the next few months.
Chicago Bears 7-9
Needs: QB,OL,RB,WR,S
Offense: The year after making it to the Super Bowl, the Chicago Bears failed to get to .500, missed the playoffs, played pathetic offense while underachieving on defense. And oh wait, and they don't have a quarterback. To make matters worse the Bears could lose their best skill position player and their best offensive lineman (not to mention their best defensive player) in free agency. WR Bernard Berrian, G Ruben Brown are unrestricted free agents, and they expect both to command top dollar on the open market. Chicago's scouting department was looking closely at receivers in the Senior Bowl and a first day pick on a receiver is not out of the questions. The Bears desperately need some life at quarterback, but Lovie Smith has animately denied his team would draft one in the first round. Chad Henne, Joe Flacco, or John David Booty could all still be possibilities in the 2-4th roundss. Don't forget about the offensive line, which is getting older and could lose Ruben Brown. Also, Cedric Benson...Enough said.
Chicago Bears 7-9
Needs: QB,OL,RB,WR,S
Offense: The year after making it to the Super Bowl, the Chicago Bears failed to get to .500, missed the playoffs, played pathetic offense while underachieving on defense. And oh wait, and they don't have a quarterback. To make matters worse the Bears could lose their best skill position player and their best offensive lineman (not to mention their best defensive player) in free agency. WR Bernard Berrian, G Ruben Brown are unrestricted free agents, and they expect both to command top dollar on the open market. Chicago's scouting department was looking closely at receivers in the Senior Bowl and a first day pick on a receiver is not out of the questions. The Bears desperately need some life at quarterback, but Lovie Smith has animately denied his team would draft one in the first round. Chad Henne, Joe Flacco, or John David Booty could all still be possibilities in the 2-4th roundss. Don't forget about the offensive line, which is getting older and could lose Ruben Brown. Also, Cedric Benson...Enough said.
Defense: OLB Lance Briggs will be the best defensive player in free agency and teams will be lining up to sign him up. A number of teams have already expressed interest in both Berrian and Briggs, which means the Bears could have a tough time retaining either. Brian Urlacher had off-season neck surgery and seems to be deteriorating faster than he should for his age. The defense vastly underachieved this past season and the blame cannot be solely laid on injuries. Tommie Harris is one of the best DT's in football, and the defense can create pressure with their front four. However, they were susceptible to the run much of the year and must inject some youth and athleticism, particularly at linebacker and defensive end. The Bears need to rebuild through the draft so expect them to look at linebackers, defensive ends, wide receivers and quarterbacks come April.
Projected 1st Round Draft Pick: #14 OLB Keith Rivers USC
Detroit Lions 7-9
Needs: OL,CB,TE,LB,S
Offense: Matt Millen really cannot afford to screw this up again. Coming off a promising first half, the Lions collapsed. Luckily, their flaws are clear and potentially correctable. The Lions stand to lose T.J. Duckett from an offense that has serious potential, but didn't always play up to abilities. The Lions have gotten rid of Mike Martz and that should bring more cohesion to the team. Head Coach Rod Marinelli wants to pound the football and in order to do that, the Lions will need an upgrade along the offensive line. The Lions couldn't protect Kitna at all, which lead to errant throws and picks. A tackle like Chris Williams in the first round is certainly possible, but Marinelli is apparently not sold on Kevin Jones as a feature back and could look to one of the blue chip running backs in the first round to find his guy.
Defense: The Lions defense was proficient at creating turnovers last season, but strangely, the cornerbacks are mediocre at best and need to be upgraded. The Lions could also lose LB Boss Bailey in free agency, and are reportedly shopping Shaun Rodgers as well. The Lions disparately need a corner who can cover someone, anyone. Leodis McKelvin, Aqib Talib, and Mike Jenkins are crowded at the top of draft boards and we may not have a clear pecking order until after the combine. Matt Millen does deserve some credit for putting together a viable NFL team this past season for the first time in ages. Hopefully with the cracks so easy to see, he will be able to fill them.
Projected 1st Round Draft Pick: #15 Aqib Talib CB Kansas
Green Bay Packers 13-3
Needs: CB,OL,S,TE,RB
Offense: Anyone who said Green Bay would be one of the top two teams in NFC at the beginning of the year would have been called a lunatic. However, Mike McCarthy's team proved Brett Favre was right when he called this team extremely talented. 2008 should bring added depth and continued improvement to a team loaded at a number of positions. Wide Receiver represents the strongest and deepest unit in the NFC. With the emergence of Ryan Grant and the progress of second year man Brandon Jackson, the Pack should be set in the backfield. Clearly, Brett Favre's future is in doubt, but Green Bay feels good about Aaron Rodgers. To help ensure the success of whoever is behind center, the Green and Gold must add depth to their offensive line at both guard and tackle. A second tight end behind Donald Lee would also be a huge lift as Bubba Franks' skill has diminished considerably.
Defense:The Packers only major potential free agent loss would be Corey Williams. They are hoping not to overpay for Williams and will likely refrain from doing so with Justin Harrell waiting. Green Bay did not play well against Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer in the NFC Championship game so depth and corner will likely be a top priority in the draft. Safety was another possible weakness coming into '07, but Nick Collins was a Pro Bowl alternate and Atari Bigby came up huge down the stretch, particularly in the playoffs. Depth at linebacker seems to be the other relevant need as the Packers D could use an explosive 3rd LB to run with Nick Barnett and AJ Hawk.
Projected 1st Round Draft Pick: #30 Domonique Rodgers-Cromartie CB Tennessee State
Minnesota Vikings 8-8
Needs: QB,WR,DE,CB,RT
Offense: It seems fate intervened to prevent any team lead by Tavaris Jackson from making the playoffs. Fate happened to be in the form of a hot Washington Redskins team, but fate takes many forms. The Vikings will need fate on their side in '08 with a more experienced Packer team, an improving Lions team, and a Bears team that is only one season removed from the Super Bowl in the division. The Vikings could lose FB Tony Richardson and back-up RB Mewelde Moore in free agency, something that clearly concerns the Vikes. Minnesota was scouting mid to late round running backs to add depth and insurance if/when Chester Taylor leaves. Head Coach Brad Childress has fallen in love with Tavaris Jackson for whatever reason, but don't be surprised if he's pushed from the top to go in a different direction at QB. Regardless of who is throwing the ball, he will need someone on the other end. The Vikings have a hapless group of retreads and failed high draft picks and will look to upgrade. If DeSean Jackson or Malcolm Kelly are there when the Vikings pick, they will not hesitate to snatch up either. DeSean Jackson would be an ideal fit, adding explosiveness to the passing game as well as giving the Vikes a much needed boost on special teams.
Defense: Despite the struggles of first round picks Kenechi Udeze and Erasmus James, word out of Minneapolis is they're targeting yet another first round pass rusher. Inside, the Williams brothers are arguably the best tandem in football, but creating pressure has been a problem. The lack of pressure has been compounded with inconsistent play in the secondary. Teams regularly founds seams in the Cover 2 shell and the Vikes pass defense could use help at corner and safety. The Vikings draft in the first three to four rounds will likely consist of a WR,CB, and DE in any order. If they can find the right pieces to fix the pass defense, the Vikings will be a tough team to beat in 2008.
Projected 1st Round Pick: #17 DeSean Jackson WR Cal
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
The Biggest Loser? How About the Only Loser
Nearly 100 million viewers watched the New York Giants upset the heavily favored and previously undefeated New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. A grizzly, sloppy game until the fourth quarter, the finish was nothing short of spectacular. When the gun sounded Eli Manning was the MVP and Bill Belichick was leaving the field with his pride...well except for the red hoody.
As I watched Mr. Spygate trudge towards Tom Coughlin and offer a hug that ranks in awkwardness to the handshake with Eric Mangini, I realized he was the only person with something to lose. And lose it he did, in dramatic fashion.
The 2007 season will forever be the season the Patriots couldn't finish. Even with the rabid New York media, the Giants will always have to share the spotlight of this season with a team that won 18 straight and couldn't seal the deal in Glendale. For better or for worse, that is the burden of beating the Patriots THIS year. The Patriots still did something no team in NFL history has done, and Tom Brady, Randy Moss, and that offense set records not soon to be broken. Tom Brady already has three rings, and his Patriots place in history as an NFL dynasty was already solidified. Brady become the all-time Super Bowl leader in completions, passing some guy named Montana who I hear is pretty good. The 2007 New England Patriots are the best team not to win a Super Bowl and the one of only a handful of teams to go 18-1. Had the Giants lost, they would have slipped into oblivion.
The problem is, the Giants won. They went on the road and beat Tampa at Tampa, Dallas in Dallas, and Green Bay in Green Bay. That streak gave them 10 consecutive road wins, an NFL record, to cap perhaps the greatest run in history. For a game normally wrapped in hyperbole and cliche, the discussion over "best ____ ever" has to be had after this game, this season. The New York Football Giants certainly had nothing to lose as they were playing with house money. With a loss, the G-Men simply would have been the last highlights on another Patriots Super Bowl season DVD, something the Rams, Panthers, and Eagles all know about.
With a win, Eli Manning can play without the hounding pressure in the Meadowlands. Michael Strahan can retire on top, as one of the greatest rush ends in the modern era. Tom Coughlin completes a remarkable coaching job, banding together a team that had supposedly quit on him a season prior. New York is actually one of the youngest teams in the league and had they lost, would certainly have all the tools to give it a shot next year.
But what about Tiki and Shockey? This nonsense about this being a better team without Tiki Barber is ridiculous. Tiki Barber was not the problem on the Giants team, they simply didn't play consistent football, but Barber did. Regardless of the shots he took at Eli or Coughlin after the fact, Tiki Barber was and still would be the best player on that team. I can't agree with any logic that tells me the Giants are a better team without him.
The same can be said for Shockey. While it was unconscionable for him to be in a box that looked like they were having an early Mardi Gras party, Shockey makes the offense dynamic down the seam. Eli loves to look for Shockey on third down and he is still one of the premier play makers at the position. As far as Shockey as a distraction, he is still on the team. He went to practice, meetings, and walk-through's all season. Sure, you might think Shockey is a loser in general, this Super Bowl win is his gain because he makes them even better next year.
Boston fans, don't even think about it. You were not cheated, jilted, or wronged. You did not lose either. Your Red Sox won the World Series and you're still the best team in baseball. You have the most talented team in the Eastern Conference, and you have 3 Super Bowl W's in less than 10 years. I know about "the curse" and the plight of a Boston sports fan, but give me a break. You'll be back because you have superior talent evaluators and a proven blueprint. Sorry Patriots fans, but I think you'll manage.
One could make a case for advertising agencies here as the reported $2.7 million commercials left a great deal to be desired, we are still talking about how awful they were, so maybe it worked. That leaves the hoody. Bill, you cheated in week 1 against an inferior opponent and a former assistant coach. You then proceeded to downplay the event in public, and use as motivation for your team. You killed teams, went for it on fourth down up 20+, essentially telling the NFL you didn't care and to try and stop you. While piling up 18 straight, you were flippant with the media and alienated fans. Then, just days before the culmination of your perfect season, allegations over previous spying incidents come out. The Eagles suspected you had more information on their game then you should...now someone claims you had more information on the Rams than you should. With your villain status already intact, there was one thing you had to do: Win.
Had Bill Belichick won Super XLII, he would have been justified, now he's simply vilified. And he's earned it. The NFL has unwritten rules, codes and standards to which players and coaches are to adhere. Karma comes around quickly and the only way to avoid it is to win while you can. Bill Belichick took by far his best team to date to play in a game whose outcome was a foregone conclusion. Win, and the Spygate scandal, running up the score, the F U touchdowns, they would all melt away in the magic of 19-0. Lose, and look like cheaters, bullies, and choke-artists. Now Belichick have a chance to go the corner and think about what he's done. Maybe he'll play by the rules next time. Until then, he's simply a loser.
As I watched Mr. Spygate trudge towards Tom Coughlin and offer a hug that ranks in awkwardness to the handshake with Eric Mangini, I realized he was the only person with something to lose. And lose it he did, in dramatic fashion.
The 2007 season will forever be the season the Patriots couldn't finish. Even with the rabid New York media, the Giants will always have to share the spotlight of this season with a team that won 18 straight and couldn't seal the deal in Glendale. For better or for worse, that is the burden of beating the Patriots THIS year. The Patriots still did something no team in NFL history has done, and Tom Brady, Randy Moss, and that offense set records not soon to be broken. Tom Brady already has three rings, and his Patriots place in history as an NFL dynasty was already solidified. Brady become the all-time Super Bowl leader in completions, passing some guy named Montana who I hear is pretty good. The 2007 New England Patriots are the best team not to win a Super Bowl and the one of only a handful of teams to go 18-1. Had the Giants lost, they would have slipped into oblivion.
The problem is, the Giants won. They went on the road and beat Tampa at Tampa, Dallas in Dallas, and Green Bay in Green Bay. That streak gave them 10 consecutive road wins, an NFL record, to cap perhaps the greatest run in history. For a game normally wrapped in hyperbole and cliche, the discussion over "best ____ ever" has to be had after this game, this season. The New York Football Giants certainly had nothing to lose as they were playing with house money. With a loss, the G-Men simply would have been the last highlights on another Patriots Super Bowl season DVD, something the Rams, Panthers, and Eagles all know about.
With a win, Eli Manning can play without the hounding pressure in the Meadowlands. Michael Strahan can retire on top, as one of the greatest rush ends in the modern era. Tom Coughlin completes a remarkable coaching job, banding together a team that had supposedly quit on him a season prior. New York is actually one of the youngest teams in the league and had they lost, would certainly have all the tools to give it a shot next year.
But what about Tiki and Shockey? This nonsense about this being a better team without Tiki Barber is ridiculous. Tiki Barber was not the problem on the Giants team, they simply didn't play consistent football, but Barber did. Regardless of the shots he took at Eli or Coughlin after the fact, Tiki Barber was and still would be the best player on that team. I can't agree with any logic that tells me the Giants are a better team without him.
The same can be said for Shockey. While it was unconscionable for him to be in a box that looked like they were having an early Mardi Gras party, Shockey makes the offense dynamic down the seam. Eli loves to look for Shockey on third down and he is still one of the premier play makers at the position. As far as Shockey as a distraction, he is still on the team. He went to practice, meetings, and walk-through's all season. Sure, you might think Shockey is a loser in general, this Super Bowl win is his gain because he makes them even better next year.
Boston fans, don't even think about it. You were not cheated, jilted, or wronged. You did not lose either. Your Red Sox won the World Series and you're still the best team in baseball. You have the most talented team in the Eastern Conference, and you have 3 Super Bowl W's in less than 10 years. I know about "the curse" and the plight of a Boston sports fan, but give me a break. You'll be back because you have superior talent evaluators and a proven blueprint. Sorry Patriots fans, but I think you'll manage.
One could make a case for advertising agencies here as the reported $2.7 million commercials left a great deal to be desired, we are still talking about how awful they were, so maybe it worked. That leaves the hoody. Bill, you cheated in week 1 against an inferior opponent and a former assistant coach. You then proceeded to downplay the event in public, and use as motivation for your team. You killed teams, went for it on fourth down up 20+, essentially telling the NFL you didn't care and to try and stop you. While piling up 18 straight, you were flippant with the media and alienated fans. Then, just days before the culmination of your perfect season, allegations over previous spying incidents come out. The Eagles suspected you had more information on their game then you should...now someone claims you had more information on the Rams than you should. With your villain status already intact, there was one thing you had to do: Win.
Had Bill Belichick won Super XLII, he would have been justified, now he's simply vilified. And he's earned it. The NFL has unwritten rules, codes and standards to which players and coaches are to adhere. Karma comes around quickly and the only way to avoid it is to win while you can. Bill Belichick took by far his best team to date to play in a game whose outcome was a foregone conclusion. Win, and the Spygate scandal, running up the score, the F U touchdowns, they would all melt away in the magic of 19-0. Lose, and look like cheaters, bullies, and choke-artists. Now Belichick have a chance to go the corner and think about what he's done. Maybe he'll play by the rules next time. Until then, he's simply a loser.
Sunday, February 3, 2008
19-0 Does Not Mean Greatest Ever
The New England Patriots will likely make history tonight and become the first team in the history of the NFL to go 19-0. Sure, the Giants have a chance and gave the Pats their toughest challenge of the season in week 17. The national sports media seems to think that if the Patriots don't win the Super Bowl, then this is a lost season, nothing more than a historical footnote and stellar accomplishment. On the other hand, if the Patriots win people seem to be under the impression that the Patriots leap into first place as the best team in NFL history. The fact of the matter is, the 2007 Patriots are not the greatest team ever. Furthermore, 19-0 does mean necessarily signify the greatest single season performance in NFL history.
Tom Brady made playing quarterback look easy en route to the greatest season a QB has ever had. Not Joe Montana, not Dan Marino, not Peyton Manning, no one has ever had a season like this. The numbers speak for themselves: 50 TD's, 8 INT's, 4,806, and a rating of 117.2. Sure Peyton Manning had a higher QB rating in 2004 when he broke Marino's record, and Marino had far less options than Brady, but the Patriots offense is absolutely unstoppable and Brady is the reason (See: 26-28 for 262 3 TD's and 0 INT's against Jacksonville in the divisional playoff game).
Randy Moss has cemented himself in the argument with Jerry Rice as one of the best receivers in NFL history. Wes Welker as a slot receiver is more dangerous than Brandon Stokley for the Colts in his prime or Az-Hakim for St. Louis in those years as the "Greatest Show on Turf". Ben Watson is a freak at tight end. Laurence Maroney is capable of pounding you on the ground and Kevin Faulk can beat you in every facet of the offense. This all happens to be behind the best offensive line in football. That O has scored more points than any team in history and won games in dominating fashion.
That being said, the 2007 New England Patriots are not the greatest TEAM of all time. The argument that goes something like, "Line up the '07 Patriots and they'll beat any team" simply fails to account for too many outside factors precluding any sort of objective analysis to take place on that basis. The 2007 Patriots are essentially just a better version of the Colts from 2004-2006: a team with a dynamic offense and a vulnerable defense. The Colts could have gone undefeated had Tony Dungy not decided to sit players, and almost did anyway. Granted that team lost in the playoffs, but going undefeated cannot be the sole criterion applied here.
Until 2007, the 1985 Bears have been widely considered the greatest team of all-time. They went 18-1 and dominated the Patriots in Super Bowl XX. Their only loss came in week 13 to the Miami Dolphins, after which the Bears steamrolled everyone in the NFC and then the Patriots on their way to the title. That defense is probably the greatest ever, holding its opponents to just 198 points total, lowest in the NFL. In 11 of their 16 games, Bears' opponents failed to score more than 10 points. That Bears offense was also second in the league in points scored, a stat that often gets lost among the great defensive numbers.
Even more impressive, that Bears team dominated the NFC at a time when the Washington Redskins were winning championships lead by Joe Gibbs, while Jerry Rice and Joe Montana were in their prime in San Francisco, not to mention Lawrence Taylor was terrorizing opponents and helping the Giants win a championship. The '07 Patriots play in by far the worst division in the AFC with no real competition outside of their division either. Are the Patriots the best team in the NFL in 2007? Regardless of the Super Bowl outcome, the answer to that question is a definite, "Yes." However, the Pats beat just 4 teams with 10 or more wins and only 7 with winning records.
Compare that to the 1991 Washington Redskins who played 8 games against teams who finished with at least 10 wins, winning 6. The 2 games they lost were to division rivals Dallas and Philadelphia by a combined 5 points. That Redskins team scored the most points in the NFL and allowed the second fewest, shutting out 3 opponents. The 'Skins rolled through the playoffs and beat the Bills 37-24 in Super Bowl XXVI. This all in an NFC featuring the same powers the Bears faced in the mid and late 80's, including a Cowboy team with a few guys named Aikman, Smith, and Irvin.
The NFL in 2007 was no where near as competitive as it was in the late 80's and early 90's. The Patriots benefited from a pathetically weak division that included an historically putrid Miami Dolphins team who managed just one win, an offensively challenged Bills team who somehow managed to go 8-8, and 4-12 New York Jets team. Imagine the '07 Patriots in the NFC East circa 1991, instead of the then Phoenix Cardinals. Two games against Troy Aikman and company in Dallas, two against Joe Gibbs' Redskins, two games against Randal Cunningham and Philly, and two games against Phil Sims and Lawrence Taylor. When one looks at it that way, its no wonder the Phoenix Cardinals managed just 4 wins.
Even in the 2007 NFC East, it would be hard to imagine the Patriots going undefeated. 18-0 represents an historic feat. 19-0 only magnifies the already record breaking accomplishment of an undefeated season. With the salary cap and draft, it was a feat never thought possible, much less plausible. The 2007 New England Patriots are a great team, even all-time great. But line then up against the 1985 Bears or the 1991 Redskins and instead of playing one game, let them play an entire season. 19-0 talk would probably be done by mid-season.
19-0 will be special for the game, regardless of your thoughts on Randy Moss and Spygate and the way the '07 Patriots basically gave the league the finger this season. Appreciate this team for what they are, a great team that has a chance at history. But don't expect 19-0 to automatically imply #1 team in history status, even if the score is 56-0(which it won't be). One final thought for history, this 2007 New England Patriots will likely go down as one of the most hated Super Bowl Champion in history. They have Bill Belichick, off-season greed, SpyGate, Tom Brady's super-models, Randy Moss, and F U touchdowns to thank for that. I have a feeling Bill Belichick and his team really doesn't care. They just want win number 19.
Tom Brady made playing quarterback look easy en route to the greatest season a QB has ever had. Not Joe Montana, not Dan Marino, not Peyton Manning, no one has ever had a season like this. The numbers speak for themselves: 50 TD's, 8 INT's, 4,806, and a rating of 117.2. Sure Peyton Manning had a higher QB rating in 2004 when he broke Marino's record, and Marino had far less options than Brady, but the Patriots offense is absolutely unstoppable and Brady is the reason (See: 26-28 for 262 3 TD's and 0 INT's against Jacksonville in the divisional playoff game).
Randy Moss has cemented himself in the argument with Jerry Rice as one of the best receivers in NFL history. Wes Welker as a slot receiver is more dangerous than Brandon Stokley for the Colts in his prime or Az-Hakim for St. Louis in those years as the "Greatest Show on Turf". Ben Watson is a freak at tight end. Laurence Maroney is capable of pounding you on the ground and Kevin Faulk can beat you in every facet of the offense. This all happens to be behind the best offensive line in football. That O has scored more points than any team in history and won games in dominating fashion.
That being said, the 2007 New England Patriots are not the greatest TEAM of all time. The argument that goes something like, "Line up the '07 Patriots and they'll beat any team" simply fails to account for too many outside factors precluding any sort of objective analysis to take place on that basis. The 2007 Patriots are essentially just a better version of the Colts from 2004-2006: a team with a dynamic offense and a vulnerable defense. The Colts could have gone undefeated had Tony Dungy not decided to sit players, and almost did anyway. Granted that team lost in the playoffs, but going undefeated cannot be the sole criterion applied here.
Until 2007, the 1985 Bears have been widely considered the greatest team of all-time. They went 18-1 and dominated the Patriots in Super Bowl XX. Their only loss came in week 13 to the Miami Dolphins, after which the Bears steamrolled everyone in the NFC and then the Patriots on their way to the title. That defense is probably the greatest ever, holding its opponents to just 198 points total, lowest in the NFL. In 11 of their 16 games, Bears' opponents failed to score more than 10 points. That Bears offense was also second in the league in points scored, a stat that often gets lost among the great defensive numbers.
Even more impressive, that Bears team dominated the NFC at a time when the Washington Redskins were winning championships lead by Joe Gibbs, while Jerry Rice and Joe Montana were in their prime in San Francisco, not to mention Lawrence Taylor was terrorizing opponents and helping the Giants win a championship. The '07 Patriots play in by far the worst division in the AFC with no real competition outside of their division either. Are the Patriots the best team in the NFL in 2007? Regardless of the Super Bowl outcome, the answer to that question is a definite, "Yes." However, the Pats beat just 4 teams with 10 or more wins and only 7 with winning records.
Compare that to the 1991 Washington Redskins who played 8 games against teams who finished with at least 10 wins, winning 6. The 2 games they lost were to division rivals Dallas and Philadelphia by a combined 5 points. That Redskins team scored the most points in the NFL and allowed the second fewest, shutting out 3 opponents. The 'Skins rolled through the playoffs and beat the Bills 37-24 in Super Bowl XXVI. This all in an NFC featuring the same powers the Bears faced in the mid and late 80's, including a Cowboy team with a few guys named Aikman, Smith, and Irvin.
The NFL in 2007 was no where near as competitive as it was in the late 80's and early 90's. The Patriots benefited from a pathetically weak division that included an historically putrid Miami Dolphins team who managed just one win, an offensively challenged Bills team who somehow managed to go 8-8, and 4-12 New York Jets team. Imagine the '07 Patriots in the NFC East circa 1991, instead of the then Phoenix Cardinals. Two games against Troy Aikman and company in Dallas, two against Joe Gibbs' Redskins, two games against Randal Cunningham and Philly, and two games against Phil Sims and Lawrence Taylor. When one looks at it that way, its no wonder the Phoenix Cardinals managed just 4 wins.
Even in the 2007 NFC East, it would be hard to imagine the Patriots going undefeated. 18-0 represents an historic feat. 19-0 only magnifies the already record breaking accomplishment of an undefeated season. With the salary cap and draft, it was a feat never thought possible, much less plausible. The 2007 New England Patriots are a great team, even all-time great. But line then up against the 1985 Bears or the 1991 Redskins and instead of playing one game, let them play an entire season. 19-0 talk would probably be done by mid-season.
19-0 will be special for the game, regardless of your thoughts on Randy Moss and Spygate and the way the '07 Patriots basically gave the league the finger this season. Appreciate this team for what they are, a great team that has a chance at history. But don't expect 19-0 to automatically imply #1 team in history status, even if the score is 56-0(which it won't be). One final thought for history, this 2007 New England Patriots will likely go down as one of the most hated Super Bowl Champion in history. They have Bill Belichick, off-season greed, SpyGate, Tom Brady's super-models, Randy Moss, and F U touchdowns to thank for that. I have a feeling Bill Belichick and his team really doesn't care. They just want win number 19.
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