Sunday, February 3, 2008

19-0 Does Not Mean Greatest Ever

The New England Patriots will likely make history tonight and become the first team in the history of the NFL to go 19-0. Sure, the Giants have a chance and gave the Pats their toughest challenge of the season in week 17. The national sports media seems to think that if the Patriots don't win the Super Bowl, then this is a lost season, nothing more than a historical footnote and stellar accomplishment. On the other hand, if the Patriots win people seem to be under the impression that the Patriots leap into first place as the best team in NFL history. The fact of the matter is, the 2007 Patriots are not the greatest team ever. Furthermore, 19-0 does mean necessarily signify the greatest single season performance in NFL history.

Tom Brady made playing quarterback look easy en route to the greatest season a QB has ever had. Not Joe Montana, not Dan Marino, not Peyton Manning, no one has ever had a season like this. The numbers speak for themselves: 50 TD's, 8 INT's, 4,806, and a rating of 117.2. Sure Peyton Manning had a higher QB rating in 2004 when he broke Marino's record, and Marino had far less options than Brady, but the Patriots offense is absolutely unstoppable and Brady is the reason (See: 26-28 for 262 3 TD's and 0 INT's against Jacksonville in the divisional playoff game).

Randy Moss has cemented himself in the argument with Jerry Rice as one of the best receivers in NFL history. Wes Welker as a slot receiver is more dangerous than Brandon Stokley for the Colts in his prime or Az-Hakim for St. Louis in those years as the "Greatest Show on Turf". Ben Watson is a freak at tight end. Laurence Maroney is capable of pounding you on the ground and Kevin Faulk can beat you in every facet of the offense. This all happens to be behind the best offensive line in football. That O has scored more points than any team in history and won games in dominating fashion.

That being said, the 2007 New England Patriots are not the greatest TEAM of all time. The argument that goes something like, "Line up the '07 Patriots and they'll beat any team" simply fails to account for too many outside factors precluding any sort of objective analysis to take place on that basis. The 2007 Patriots are essentially just a better version of the Colts from 2004-2006: a team with a dynamic offense and a vulnerable defense. The Colts could have gone undefeated had Tony Dungy not decided to sit players, and almost did anyway. Granted that team lost in the playoffs, but going undefeated cannot be the sole criterion applied here.

Until 2007, the 1985 Bears have been widely considered the greatest team of all-time. They went 18-1 and dominated the Patriots in Super Bowl XX. Their only loss came in week 13 to the Miami Dolphins, after which the Bears steamrolled everyone in the NFC and then the Patriots on their way to the title. That defense is probably the greatest ever, holding its opponents to just 198 points total, lowest in the NFL. In 11 of their 16 games, Bears' opponents failed to score more than 10 points. That Bears offense was also second in the league in points scored, a stat that often gets lost among the great defensive numbers.

Even more impressive, that Bears team dominated the NFC at a time when the Washington Redskins were winning championships lead by Joe Gibbs, while Jerry Rice and Joe Montana were in their prime in San Francisco, not to mention Lawrence Taylor was terrorizing opponents and helping the Giants win a championship. The '07 Patriots play in by far the worst division in the AFC with no real competition outside of their division either. Are the Patriots the best team in the NFL in 2007? Regardless of the Super Bowl outcome, the answer to that question is a definite, "Yes." However, the Pats beat just 4 teams with 10 or more wins and only 7 with winning records.

Compare that to the 1991 Washington Redskins who played 8 games against teams who finished with at least 10 wins, winning 6. The 2 games they lost were to division rivals Dallas and Philadelphia by a combined 5 points. That Redskins team scored the most points in the NFL and allowed the second fewest, shutting out 3 opponents. The 'Skins rolled through the playoffs and beat the Bills 37-24 in Super Bowl XXVI. This all in an NFC featuring the same powers the Bears faced in the mid and late 80's, including a Cowboy team with a few guys named Aikman, Smith, and Irvin.

The NFL in 2007 was no where near as competitive as it was in the late 80's and early 90's. The Patriots benefited from a pathetically weak division that included an historically putrid Miami Dolphins team who managed just one win, an offensively challenged Bills team who somehow managed to go 8-8, and 4-12 New York Jets team. Imagine the '07 Patriots in the NFC East circa 1991, instead of the then Phoenix Cardinals. Two games against Troy Aikman and company in Dallas, two against Joe Gibbs' Redskins, two games against Randal Cunningham and Philly, and two games against Phil Sims and Lawrence Taylor. When one looks at it that way, its no wonder the Phoenix Cardinals managed just 4 wins.

Even in the 2007 NFC East, it would be hard to imagine the Patriots going undefeated. 18-0 represents an historic feat. 19-0 only magnifies the already record breaking accomplishment of an undefeated season. With the salary cap and draft, it was a feat never thought possible, much less plausible. The 2007 New England Patriots are a great team, even all-time great. But line then up against the 1985 Bears or the 1991 Redskins and instead of playing one game, let them play an entire season. 19-0 talk would probably be done by mid-season.

19-0 will be special for the game, regardless of your thoughts on Randy Moss and Spygate and the way the '07 Patriots basically gave the league the finger this season. Appreciate this team for what they are, a great team that has a chance at history. But don't expect 19-0 to automatically imply #1 team in history status, even if the score is 56-0(which it won't be). One final thought for history, this 2007 New England Patriots will likely go down as one of the most hated Super Bowl Champion in history. They have Bill Belichick, off-season greed, SpyGate, Tom Brady's super-models, Randy Moss, and F U touchdowns to thank for that. I have a feeling Bill Belichick and his team really doesn't care. They just want win number 19.

No comments: