Friday, February 15, 2008

NFL Off-season Preview: AFC East

Outside of the New England Patriots, the AFC East was atrocious. However, the Jets are just a season removed from a 10-6 playoff season, and the Bills remain just a few pieces away from competing for the playoffs. The only potential pushover in 2008 will be the Dolphins coming off a 1-15 campaign. Bill Parcells hopes to turn things around quickly and with the #1 pick, the Dolphins will start the rebuilding process. Only the Patriots will be hit hard by free agency and pending retirement so look for the rest of the East to close to gap with the Patriots.

Buffalo Bills 8-8
Needs: WR,TE,CB,DT,LB
Offense: Another off-season in Buffalo, another batch of questions about youth, continuity, and talent. A few certainties? Trent Edwards is the quarterback and they can win with him. Marshawn Lynch is a punishing runner who fits this Bills team perfectly. We also know the Bills have solid edge rushers, but little else on defense. That means there are quite a bit of holes on a team that actually went 8-8. Buffalo returns basically everything from that 8-8 team, including a putrid offense, 30th in points, passing, and total yards. Lee Evans provides basically the only explosion offensively as Roscoe Parish does most of his damage on special teams. The Bills desperately need to get him and Trent Edwards some more weapons in the passing game, which will likely mean a WR and/or TE on the first day of the draft. Guys like WR Malcolm Kelly or TE Martellus Bennett would really help Trent Edwards develop and this offense to add balance.

Defensive: The Bills will get Paul Posluszny back at linebacker which will be huge for a defense that was in the bottom of just about every defensive category. Buffalo's D was decimated by injuries next year and their lack of depth was exposed. They will likely look to add at just about every position defensively particularly at cornerback and defensive tackle. Buffalo has a youth and athleticism at the safety position and good young corners, but the front 7 could certainly use depth and improved overall talent to compete for a Wild Card birth in 2008.

Projected 1st Round Pick: #11 Malcolm Kelley WR Oklahoma

Miama Dolphins 1-15
Needs: OL,DL,CB,WR,QB

Offense: The Miami Dolphins can officially begin the player personnel portion of their off-season now that the coaching staff has been completely assembled. The Dolphins come off a 1-15 season and look to be a team full of holes. Fortunately, the only significant potential FA loss is QB Cleo Lemon who lost his starting job to rookie John Beck a little more than halfway through the season. I keep hearing Matt Ryan as the #1 overall pick (See ESPN's two headed draft monster Kiper Jr./McShay) but look at the QB's Bill Parcells has taken to the playoffs(Quincy Carter!!) and it becomes hard for me to imagine using the top pick on a quarterback. The offensive line could be the place to start, with Sparano and Parcells both having offensive line backgrounds. Jake Long would be an upgrade at either tackle spot and could provide for Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams much like Joe Thomas did this past season for Jamal Lewis.

Defense: The defense is aging leading to Zach Thomas' release. Also the future of Jason Taylor remain undecided. Upgrades all along the front 7 will be needed for this defense to return to the level it was several years ago, not to mention serious help in the secondary. The Dolphins scouts keyed on defensive line and cornerbacks at the Senior Bowl. Matt Ryan seems to be the early favorite to be the #1 pick, but Bill Parcells and Chris Long together makes too much sense at this point for me to believe they will go anywhere else. The QB class is deep and a guy like Chad Henne is not that much worse than Brohm, where Long is considerably better than a player like Calais Campbell or Lawrence Jackson (Potential Round 2 DE's)

Projected 1st Round Pick: Chris Long DE Virginia

New England Patriots 16-0
Needs: CB,LB,S,RB,OL

Offense:
What is there to say about an offense that scored more points than any team in history and returns at least 10 starters, maybe 11 if Randy Moss doesn't hit the open market. If the Pats can keep Moss, there really aren't any holes on offense. They could use some depth up front and maybe depth at running back as Kevin Faulk is getting old. With the same coaching staff, same system, and same QB (I think his name is something Brady), the Pats offense will be extremely dangerous again assuming they stay healthy. The Patriots will shop their pick from the 49ers at 7 saving money to resign Moss, especially when you consider no CB really warrants top 10 selection.

Defense: Already the Achilles heel if the team, the Pats D will be another year older and will likely lose CB Asante Samuel and CB/S Randall Gay to free agency. That means the Pats will have to do serious talent searching to bolster that unit. In addition, ILB's Tedy Bruschi and Junior Seau are well into their 30's and could retire. Bruschi is a free agent as it is, although New England would certainly consider bringing him back if he was willing to do so at a discount. The 2008 Patriots will be dynamic on offense, but any 19-0 talk for this team will likely be over by mid-season.

Projected 1st Round Draft Pick: #7 Ryan Clady OT Boise State

New York Jets 4-12
Needs: DE/OLB,WR,G,CB,LB
Offense: Chad Pennington appears to be shipping out, and at times Kellen Clemens flashed the kind of play making ability the coaches expected from him. That said, the offense played with very little consistency, party because of the inexperience at QB, but also the lack of explosion in the running game. Thomas Jones rushed for over 1,000 yards, but teams often loaded up against the run because they didn't think Clemens could beat them. Jerricho Cotchery and Laveraneus Coles are dynamic on the outside, but both struggled with drops and Coles had injury problems. Cotchery is the #1 of the future, but Brad Smith and Justin McCareins are not anything special. The Jets could definitely benefit from an upgrade at WR and along the offensive line to help Jones and Clemens.

Defense: John Abraham's absence played a huge role in the lack of pressure the Jets put in opposing QB's in '07. New York's 3-4 defense simply wasn't aggressive enough and failed to get to the quarterback. Darrelle Revis and Kerry Rhodes are young, talented defensive backs, but the Jets need to get better pressure to give their corners and safeties a chance. The Jets were reportedly salivating over Vernon Gholston at the Senior Bowl and he could definitely be there at #6. New York wants to add additional depth at both corner and safety, and with a deep defensive back class, there could be multiple picks addressing the defensive backfield in the draft.

Projected 1st Round Pick: #6
Vernon Gholston DE Ohio State

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