19 and Upside

Lebron James headlines an ad campaign representing his journey from shooting hoops in his backyard to his domination of both the NBA and global sports economy. The tagline: "You don't want to be me, you want to be better than me." While that seems unlikely given the way the heir to his "airness" is playing this year, it allows for a reference point in the way we view potential NBA players.

The 2005 represented the last NBA Draft during which teams could draft players straight from high school. 2004 and 2005 each had 8 high school players drafted each, a record that will, if the rule holds, never be broken. If history is any indicator, that is a good thing. Keeping players in college benefits the NBA, college basketball, and most importantly, the players.

In 1999 Jonathan Bender was drafted #5 overall from Picayune Memorial High School by the Toronto Raptors, who then traded him to the Indiana Pacers for Antonio Davis. Bender was drafted ahead of Manu Ginobili, Andrei Kirilenko, Ron Artest, Shawn Marion, Richard Hamilton, and Wally Szczerbiak all of whom went on to be all-stars. That doesn't even include Andre Miller, Jason Terry, Corey Maggette, James Posey, and Francisco Elson.

Bender was a player who scored 31 points in the McDonald's All-American Game, breaking Michael Jeffrey Jordan's record and was hyped as the leader of a new wave of long, athletic wing players who could score from anywhere. Yet in 6 seasons Bender never averaged double digit scoring, as he struggled to get off the Pacer's bench.

Clearly, there are numerous cases of players being taken too high or too long, it would be unfair to single out Bender. However, 44 players have been taken directly from high school, only 9 have made All-Star appearances. 21 of those players were taken from 2003-2005 and a whopping 6 average double figures this season.

Raising the minimum age allows NBA scouts to judge talent more effectively. Project lottery picks like Paul Harris and Hasheem Thabeet would have jumped to the NBA and their careers would have fizzled out. Neither was polished enough to play at a high level in the NBA. Now, both are playing and improving. That not only helps them, but college basketball benefits from their presence and growth, while the NBA will get a better version of their game when it comes.

Players like Lebron James and Kobre Bryant, who are ready to make the jump do not necessarily benefit directly. However, what 18 year old is mentally prepared for the rigors of NBA life, of celebrity. We've seen how it has affected Kobe's life. The NBA pre-madonna image can be shaken if these high school players go to college and learn from some of the best teachers on the planet. Can you imagine Lebron James playing Ben Gordon and Emeka Okafor at UConn on Big Monday? What about if Kobe had followed in MJ's footsteps and attended UNC where he'd face Tim Duncan twice, maybe three times in a season? The kind of player rivalries we have in the NBA now, we used to have in college basketball. The Magic/Bird rivalry started in the NCAA's.

The Freshman class this season appears to be even more talented than the last. Donte Green is third in the Big East in scoring and 11th in rebounding. Eric Gordon leads the Big Ten in scoring while Manny Harris is 5th. Michael Beasley leads the Big 12 in scoring and rebounding differentiating himself by nearly 5 points and 2 rebounds more than his closest competition. O.J. Mayo and Jerryd Bayless are tied for 2nd in scoring in the Pac-10 while Kevin Love is 2nd in boards. Each one of these players, with the exception of Manny Harris, was expected to be a lottery pick coming into the season. To this point, they certainly have not disappointed. But in the NBA, Donte Green would not be able to get 20 shots a night and 6'7'' Michael Beasley probably wouldn't grab 13 boards a game.

None of that matters, the fact is college basketball needs these players. What's more, the NBA needs these players to play college basketball, to learn how to play the game the right way. The NBA has had serious identity issues with mainstream America for quite a while. Notice the #1 and #2 picks in this past year's draft were freshman. We knew Greg Oden was supposed to be the second coming of Patrick Ewing, but Kevin Durant played his way into the lottery. What he did was even more impressive because he didn't just dominate high schoolers, he dominated Big 12 teams from wire to wire. With the overall talent pool increased, dominating the college game has become that much more difficult. As a result, the quality of the college game has increased. The NBA benefits from better players having played against higher levels of competition. Players have a chance to get better, prove their worth, and maybe even learn something in COLLEGE. Hopefully we'll see less stories about star athletes squandering their lives if they get a chance to learn something about life on their way.

The Next Step

The Conference Championships featured 4 teams with legitimate shots at hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in early February. New England had demolished San Diego early in the season, then survived a New York effort that the Giants used to springboard themselves into the playoffs. The Packers outlasted the Giants in the Meadowlands, and San Diego at home. That put the 13.5 point favored Patriots 2-0 against the 3 remaining teams and the 7.5 point favored Packers also stood 2-0. Tom Brady had thrown just 8 interceptions all season, yet three of his passes found the Charger blue on Sunday. Brett Favre had only lost twice at home in the playoffs and 43-5 in games under 34 degrees. Yet Eli Manning was standing victorious at mid-field late Sunday night.

The Giants will go to Glendale believing they can win. The Patriots will go knowing they can't be beaten. Another Patriots trophy will solidify a dynasty and galvanize a villain. And yet, the NFL and the football nation will turn off their televisions February 3rd and wonder what went wrong. The Patriots had the perfect season, 18-0. They had a quarterback playing the best football anyone had ever seen, and a coach who was determined to prove he was the best coach in football. The Giants had played extremely well down the stretch and had pushed the Patriots further than any team this season. The East Coast will love the match up: another Boston/NY clash of the titans. Only, just like Sox Yanks, no one west of Buffalo will really care.

Brett Favre vs. Tom Brady...the legend vs. greatest living...this would have been a match up rife with story lines. No doubt millions will tune in to see if the Giants can stop New England's bid for history. Had #4 taken on Brady and company, the ratings would have been astronomical, as the world would watch in earnest as one of the game's most heroic figures would look to take down the unstoppable super power.

Sure, the upstart Packers proved Sunday night that they weren't prepared for the spotlight or the pressure. Head coach Mike McCarthy did not have a tight game plan, nor did his players execute that game plan. In the biggest game of their season, the Green Bay Packers couldn't live up to the hype.

That must be where the adage, "That's why they play the games" came from. A Super Bowl XXXI rematch would have been too good to be true. Even if the Packers had survived in Lambeau, Green Bay was not ready to take down the NFL's latest and greatest bad boys. Like a Cinderella run into the Final Four, Green Bay's dance in the palace was over, or whatever other cliche sports phrase seems appropriate.

The Packers, Giants, and Cowboys will head into 2008 as the favorites in the NFC, while the Pats, Colts, and Chargers will all likely challenge for the top spot in the AFC. As always, teams like the Seahawks, Redskins, Jaguars, and Steelers will all be prepared to step in should a giant fall. 2008 will have no 19-0 teams, no 50 touchdown performances. 2008 will likely have no prohibitive favorite as is the nature of the NFL most seasons.

2007-08 may have have given Colt, Cowboy, or Packer fans the kind of ending they were hoping for. The beauty of the NFL is that there is always a next step. Scouts clamor to Alabama to watch college football's best seniors showcase their skills at the Senior Bowl this week. For every team not named Giants or Patriots, you have something to look forward to: taking the next step. While the discussion about "how do we get better" started in St. Louis and Miami weeks ago, for every team but 2, your new season has begun. It starts this week.

Mock Draft 1/17/08

The push towards the 2008 NFL Draft has reached another critical juncture, with collegiate underclassmen officially declaring their intentions for next season. As always, some surprises have shaken up draft boards. Expect more movement in the coming weeks with all-star games and February's combine, at which time we will re-examine the potential draft outcomes.

1. Miami Dolphins (1-15) Needs: OL,DL,CB,WR,S
Glenn Dorsey DT LSU
The Dolphins off-season plans will quickly take shape as Jeff Ireland, Tony Sparano, and Bill Parcells form a tuna triumvirate. Expect the Dolphins to entertain offers for this pick and for Jake Long from Michigan to draw strong considering as well if they retain this pick. Parcells is not one for flashy moves and since he's the one buying the groceries here, expect him to go with Dorsey. The senior tackle from LSU battled injuries this past season, but showed that when he's healthy, he can really wreck havoc in backfields. Dorsey reminds folks of Warren Sapp with his ability to be disruptive up the middle, and as we see with the teams remaining in the playoffs, a strong defensive line is part of the foundation to winning football.

2. St. Louis Rams (3-13) Needs: OT,LB,S,CB,QB
Chris Long DE Virginia
Scott Linehan's tenure as play-caller has apparently come to a close, although his head-coaching job remains intact. While that may disappoint Rams' fans, Chris Long will not. Grumblings in St. Louis have fans calling for McFadden and a trade of Stephen Jackson, but that seems highly unlikely. Jake Long certainly would be an upgrade on the offensive line, but if and when Orlando Pace gets healthy, Jake Long likely doesn't have a spot in the starting lineup. That is simply unacceptable for a Rams team that played pathetically at times in 2007. Chris Long, along with last year's #1 pick Adam Carriker would give the Rams defensive line an influx of youth and non-stop effort. Long was perhaps the most disruptive defensive force in college football last season, he is the Long who can come in and help the Rams right away next year...something Scott Linehan will certainly take into account.

3. Atlanta Falcons (4-12) Needs: QB,OL,DT,LB,WR,S
Darren McFadden RB Arkansas
If Jason Garrett becomes the next head coach of the Falcons, Matt Ryan certainly could be the pick. However, Rex Ryan is the front-runner for the position at this time and defensive minded head coaches tend to be in favor of pounding the football. Darren McFadden is the top prospect in this year's draft and probably a better pure running back than Reggie Bush. Questions remain about McFadden's ability to adapt to a pro offense and be used in the passing game, but with established backs already in place in Atlanta, McFadden can be used only where is most effective. On the fast track in the Georgia Dome, McFadden will be able to make big plays, and more importantly for Arthur Blank, put people in the seats.

4. Kansas City Chiefs (4-12) Needs: OL,WR,QB,CB,S
Matt Ryan QB Boston College
The staple of the Chiefs for the past decade has been their ability to run the football behind an impressive offensive line. The talent in the trenches has dwindled significantly and certainly the line is the biggest position of need for KC. However, the Chiefs are not on the cusp of once again competing for a title, particularly in a division with some young, talented teams. Jake Long could be the pick, but the rule is: you don't pass on a franchise quarterback if you don't already have one. "Matty Ice" is the best signal caller in the draft and can make all of the throws. The Chiefs have reason to believe Ryan can help them right away because he has everything a young QB needs to develop: a franchise RB(LJ), a true #1 at WR(Dwayne Bowe), and a Pro-Bowl TE(Tony Gonzalez).

5. Oakland Raiders (4-12) Needs: OL,WR,SS, DL,DB
Jake Long OT Michigan
I can already see the pained look on Al Davis' face when he learns he can't draft Darren McFadden in this spot. The Raiders could have an even bigger number of needs after guys like Fargas and Porter could be leaving Oakland in the off-season. However, the Raiders drafted a franchise QB with the #1 overall pick last year, and they have to find a way to keep JeMarcus Russell upright. Jake Long will be the best offensive lineman in the draft and if the can have similar success to Joe Thomas, the Raiders will be thrilled.

6. New York Jets (4-12) Needs: DL,WR,CB,G,FS
Sedrick Ellis DT USC
Much to the dismay of J-E-T-S fans, beating the Kansas City Chiefs in the final week of the season pushed the Jets too low to get McFadden without trading up. It may be a blessing in disguise for New York who have a number of other needs. Finding someone to rush the passer is near the top of the list. Sedrick Ellis brings toughness and tenacity to a defense that struggled at times to generate pressure. Ellis played inside at USC, but would likely move outside to end in the 3-4 New York runs. The move makes sense because Ellis makes a living getting into the backfield of opponents, where you'll find guys like Tom Brady in his division.

7. New England Patriots F/ 49ers Needs: CB,S,LB, RB, OL
Mike Jenkins CB South Florida
The NFL owes the 49ers a debt of gratitude for having some pride and not completely tanking their season to get a higher pick. The perfect Patriots pick up a top 10 pick anyway, and even at 7 don't expect them to stay here. If they do, the physical cover corner from USF could be the pick. Jenkins is the top corner in the draft, particularly now that Malcolm Jenkins will return to Ohio State for his senior season. Asante Samuel will likely leave this off-season, which may serve as reason to stay at 7 and grab 2008's top cover man.

8. Baltimore Ravens (5-11) Needs: QB,CB,WR, OL,LB
Brian Brohm QB Louisville
The league's most disappointing team in 2007 may find themselves at the top of the 2009 draft which doesn't figure to feature a quarterback worth a top 10 pick. The Ravens lost their head coach and offensive coordinator, and will likely lose defensive coordinator Rex Ryan to Atlanta. The Ravens have no QB worth relying on and Briam Brohm may have been underrated this year because of a poor team. Brohm makes up for a rocket arm with excellent timing and accuracy. He ran a wide open offense at Louisville, but he is smart and makes reads quick enough to translate that experience into an NFL system.

9. Cincinnati Bengals (7-9) Needs: LB,DL,OL,S,TE
Vernon Gholston DE Ohio State
Cincinnati disappointed many this season by failing to live up to expectations and missed the playoffs. Take one look at the remaining playoff teams and one will see just how important it is to get pressure on the opposing quarterback, particularly with the front four. The Bengals don't have a pass rush specialist and Vernon Gholston may be the class' best. The former Ohio State stand out has been shooting up draft boards and flashed brilliance all season. He may have been a top 3 pick had he stayed in school and developed a few more pass-rush moves, but Cinici will be happy to have him as is and bolster a weak group up front.

10. New Orleans Saints (7-9) Needs: DT,LB,CB,TE,S
Dan Connor MLB Penn State
New Orleans lost its identity this season and it caused them to play extremely inconsistently. All things considered, the Saints remain a highly talented team, and the right choice here, could catapult right back into contention in the NFC. Clearly, the defense remains the biggest weakness in New Orleans. Drew Brees leads this team on offense, but on defense, the Saints don't have a so-called "quarterback" on defense. Dan Connor's athletic ability will not jump out at you, but he is extremely intelligent and flies around the field. He was around the ball constantly making plays at Penn State. He could really help lead a deflated defense and take some pressure off Brees, Bush and company.

11. Buffalo Bills (7-9) Needs: WR,TE,CB,DT,LB
DeSean Jackson WR Cal
For a team that looked dead early in the season, the Buffalo Bills fought back and even flirted with the playoffs late in the season. Drew Edwards will be the starter and showed his worth late in games. The Bills offense is predicated on running the football, but adding an explosive player in the passing game would only increase the versatility of the offense. The Bills have Lee Evans in place as their #1 and have a bunch of #3's, and 4's behind him. DeSean Jackson is explosive and can really make things happen after the catch. The threat of Lee Evans in the vertical passing game will allow Edwards to get Jackson the ball underneath where he can make plays in the open field.

12. Denver Broncos (7-9) Needs: DT,OL,S,RB,WR
Ryan Clady OT Boise State
Denver's defense was a joke against the run last year and lack of depth at safety really hurt in the defensive backfield even with one of the best corner tandems in the leageue. Denver will certainly have their pick of defensive lineman and defensive backs at this point, however Ryan Clady is the best player left on the board at this point and fits a need. The Broncos love to run the ball and Clady is a mauler who uses his strength and blast people upfront. The joke is that anyone could get 1,000 yards in Denver, but that can't happen without horses up front. The former Blue Bronco would only have to change color schemes slightly to adapt to his new Bronco team.

13. Carolina Panthers (7-9) Needs: WR,DL,QB,S,TE
Kenny Phillips S Miami (Florida)
For as bad as the Panthers were at times this season, they finished a respectable 7-9 and may have found their quarterback of the future in Matt Moore. While it would be too early to anoint Moore as the future of the team, the Panthers probably feel comfortable moving forward with Delhomme and Moore, at least that how John Fox will try to spin it to avoid taking a QB here and admit to rebuilding(a move that would likely mean his job sooner rather than later). The Panthers have a stout front four and Jon Beason has really helped their linebacking unit. The defensive backfield could use an upgrade and Kenny Phillips is the only safety worth taking in the first round, one of only a handfull of DB's worthy of the top 20. Phillips is a leader and a play maker. Expect him and Beason to pick up right where they left off at Miami, creating the kind of continuity often overlooked on defense.

14. Chicago Bears (7-9) Needs: QB,G,T,RB,S,WR
Andre Woodson QB Kentucky
Last season represents the story of the Bears franchise over the last 20 years: a talented team that fails to live up to expectations for any length of time due to inconsistencies, mismanagement, and misplaces loyalties. The Bears head into the off-season as the worst team in their division a year after making the Super Bowl. Rex Grossman was putrid and is not a starting quarterback in this league. Don't be surprised of Donovan McNabb's name continues to come up, but don't hold your breath. Woodson is the man here, and he has scouts drooling. Not overly-athletic, he can make every throw with either strength or touch. He has a long throwing motion and worked mostly from the shotgun in college, but he's still better than anyone the Bears currently have on their roster or are likely to get.

15. Detroit Lions (7-9) Needs: OL,CB,TE,LB,S
Sam Baker OT USC
...That was Detroit fans with a collective sigh of relief for being able to have a team good enough to draft outside of the top 10. While the Lions fizzled out last season, they showed signs of hope for the future and boast a talented group and a number of positions. The defensive backs for Detroit are not great in coverage, although they were able to force turnovers. Unfortunately, their own offense often gave it right back. QB Jon Kitna rarely had time to set his feet and throw because he didn't have time. Sam Baker would give the Lions a fantastic talent upfront. Baker has great feet and balance, although he likes the kind of aggression and mean streak Rod Marinelli would love. With the way his stock has been rising, Aqib Talib could also be a possibility here.

16. Arizona Cardinals (8-8) Needs: OL,DL,LB,RB,S
Derrick Harvey DE Florida
2007 may not have been the playoff season some "experts" predicted, but it gave fans in Arizona reason to be hopeful. Even without Matt Leinart and some of their other stars from stretches, the Cardinals scored in bunches. They just couldn't seem to get a stop when they needed one. The Cardinals were 28th in the league in passing defense and only 7 teams gave up more plays of over 20 yards. The NFC West is full of potent passing attacks and Derrick Harvey would give the Cardinals an upgrade at end to stymie those aerial assaults. Harvey uses his hands well to engage blockers and get up field into the grills of opposing QB's. The former Florida Gator will benefit from playing on some fast tracks in NFC West stadiums with his excellent quickness off the edge.

17. Minnesota Vikings (8-8) Needs: QB,WR,DE,RT,CB
Limas Sweed WR Texas
NFL player personnel directors love to blow smoke about who they're picking and who they like and why. Early word out of Minnesota is they would love to get another pass rusher in the first round. After being burned by Erasmus James and Keneche Udezi, I can't imagine that would be true unless they traded up to get a guy like Chris Long. The more likely choice would be to give Tavaris Jackson some weapons to go along with Adrian Peterson. The Vikings don't have a go-to receiver or a big play threat except for #28. Despite an injury that cut his season short, Limas Sweed is one of the top 3 pass-catchers in the draft and is built like a #1 in the NFL. The former Longhorn is big and physical, and can make tough catches in traffic. He isn't overly quick in and out of breaks, but he would give Jackson a big target with soft hands, as well as a guy who can take his man deep. Then, imagine how dangerous AP could be.

18. Houston Texans (8-8) Needs: OL,CB,WR,RB,LB
Jonathan Stewart RB Oregon
The 2008 running back class is absolutely loaded with talent and if the Texans felt as though they wanted to upgrade at running back, they certainly could wait until the second round and grab a guy like Steve Slaton or the hometown Jamaal Charles. That could certainly meant a guy like Jeff Otah from Pitt in this spot, but the Texans ran the ball effectively last year behind the line they had. Jonathan Stewart would give the Texans a yardage eater who could be used in a number of ways within the offense, both running and in the passing game. Stewart is similar to the backs Houston already has only significantly younger and more explosive. It would make 3 drafts, 3 budding defensive stars (Williams, Ryans, Okoye) and a franchise running back, only they didn't pick Reggie Bush #1 overall.

19. Philadelphia Eagles (8-8) Needs: WR,S,G,LB,OT
Malcolm Kelly WR Oklahoma
You were looking for "play makers" Donovan? Malcolm Kelly will be exactly what this offense needs. It is true that the Eagles were not as bad on offense as McNabb, or the Philly media would like us to believe (10th in passing 8th in rushing), the Eagles lack explosion at receiver. The defense certainly isn't getting any younger and could use an upgrade at safety and some help up front. However, the Eagles offense relies too heavily on Michael Westbrook, and to keep him healthy for 16 games, Philly has to find a way to lighten his load. Kelly is a big, strong receiver who fits Andy Reid's system. Kelly is perfect for crossing routes, curls, slants, and skinny posts, and is built similarly to a certain former Eagles receiver whose name shall not be menTiOned.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7) Needs: OL,CB,LB,WR,RB
Keith Rivers OLB USC
In the NFC South, the Bucs could just as easily be last next year. No indictment of Tampa Bay, that simply seems to be the way that division works. The Bucs rode a revitalized defense and a game managing quarterback to the playoffs last season and that blueprint could get them there again in 2008. However, that defense may be losing a step and could use a shot of young talent. Keith Rivers is a tackling dynamo who works sideline to sideline on every snap. Rivers is athletic and can make tackles in the open field. His hips could be a little more fluid and his coverage could use some fine tuning. On the other hand, Tampa still has Derrick Brooks, one of the greatest coverage linebackers of his era. That will leave Rivers free to go after ball carriers and quarterbacks.

21. Washington Redskins (9-7) Needs: DL,S,OLB,WR,OL
Kentwan Balmer DT North Carolina
The NFC East promises to be the best division in football next season and the improved Washington Redskins are just one of the reasons why. The Redskins rode a magical run down the stretch in to the playoffs only to run into Seahawks team who plays lights out at home. With a few improvements, the 'Skins could challenge not just for a playoff birth, but the division. Cornelius Griffin is getting old in the middle and newcomer Anthony Montgomery is serviceable, but not great. Balmer has as much upside as any defensive player in the draft, and finally as a senior displayed some of that talent. The defensive tackle has tremendous athletic ability and talent, but lacks idea bulk for the position. With the passing games in the NFC East, the Skins know they will have to generate a great deal of pressure if they want to win.

22. Dallas Cowboys F/ Browns (13-3) Needs: DB,DT,MLB,RB,OL
Aqib Talib CB/S Kansas
Jerry Jones loves to be in the spotlight. That isn't news, but it could mean he uses his two first rounders in a package to land the top pick and Darren McFadden. His 'Boys will likely be in the market for a running back given Julius Jones is likely gone and Marion Barber III is also a free agent. However, the Cowboys lack depth in the defensive backfield and only the Cowboy nation got Ken Hamlin into the Pro Bowl. Talib is a rising prospect with all the physical tools you look for. He is brash and cocky, but he has the hands and the hips to back it up. If Talib runs anything in the 4.4 range in February, this will likely be too low for him.

23. Seattle Seahawks (10-6) Needs: G,RB,WR,OLB,CB
Felix Jones RB Arkansas
Mike Holmgren's status as head coach remains unclear to this point, however the needs of the Seahawks remain the same; Seattle disparately needs to find a running game. Shaun Alexander has deteriorated quickly, although to be fair, his pockets may be too full to move any faster. The 'Hawks simply don't have a big play threat on their team beyond Deion Branch. Felix Jones split time at Arkansas and will likely do the same in Seattle. Jones is a dynamic runner who can be used in a number of different ways. Jones finds creases and hits them with explosion and burst, making him an excellent returner as well. Jones could provide the kind of home run threat missing in Seattle since A-Rod left.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) Needs: OT,S,WR,OLB,DE
Jeffrey Otah OT Pittsburgh
The 2007 version of the Pittsburgh Steelers lacked the kind of toughness we've grown accustomed to seeing. Part of the problem was the inability of the Steeler line to generate push upfront, or give Big Ben time to find receivers. Pittsburgh is loaded offensively at the skill positions and have a top 5 defense despite underachieving this past season. Jeffrey Otah, the backyard boy, has the kind of skill set to open lanes for Willie Parker, and have Big Ben keeping perfect time. Otah is massive (6-6 340) but moves extremely well for his size. The former Pitt stand out was dominant in the Big East and has one of the highest upsides of any player in the draft. The Steelers could wind up with one of the steals in this year's draft.

25. Tennessee Titans (10-6) Needs: WR,CB,LB,OL,DT
Early Doucet III WR LSU
With Norm Chow out as offensive coordinator, Jeff Fisher clearly wants to emphasized improvement on offense in 2008. That has to mean getting Vince Young some help in the passing game. LenDale White has proved worthy of the risk, and Fisher has done wonders with that defense. VY simply doesn't have a go-to receiver who he can look for when the Titans need to convert a 3rd and 12. Early Doucet carved up coverages in the SEC his whole career at LSU and learned from guys like Dwane Bowe and Craig Davis. Doucet has fantastic hands and is fluid in and out of his breaks. He can get deep on corners and has strong hands to make catches in traffic. If the Titans can cultivate a passing game with Vince and the defense continues to improve, look out.

26. New York Giants (10-6) Needs: LB,DB,WR,OL
Ali Highsmith LB LSU
Going into the season, the New York Football Giants had one of the most talented rosters in football. The way they're playing now, one hardly remembers the Giant team who couldn't cover, tackle, or catch at times throughout the year. The G-Men would certainly like to get better in linebacker where Antonio Pierce is really the only solid player. Ali Highsmith has everything one could want from a weak side linebacker. He has quickness and vision to go along with a knack for getting to the quarterback and making plays. The Giants can rush the passer, but Highsmith knows how to find the ball and with those defensive linemen attacking opposing offenses, Highsmith's relative lack of bulk would be negated.

27. Jacksonville Jaguards (11-5) Needs: WR,LB,S,DL,
Calais Campbell DE Miami (Florida)
The toughest division in football gave us three playoff teams this season, and another team who finished .500. The Jacksonville Jaguars proved to be as good as any team in football with a tenacious defense and a physical running offense. However, the pass defense of Jacksonville is spotty at times and it stems from their inability to get push off the edges. Stroud and Henderson are stout in the middle, as good as any tackles in the league not named Williams. Calais Campbell is another massive defensive linemen who makes his living on the other side of the line of scrimmage. To disrupt teams like the Patriots and the Colts, your defense has to get pressure with your front four. Campbell is an upgrade for the Jags and will help take pressure off of their young secondary.

28. San Diego Chargers (11-5) Needs: MLB,WR,DT,LB,S,RB
Richard Mendenhall RB Illinois
Much like the Giants, the San Diego Chargers are finally playing to their capabilities. When they're healthy, there are not a great deal of holes on this team. Jamaal Williams is getting older and they could use some depth at linebacker, but the value here isn't high at either position. Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson have really come on, plus they drafted Craig Davis in the first round last year. Mendenhall may be a surprise pick, but the reason LT has played so well for so long has been the play of Michael Turner. Tomlinson is the catalyst for this offense and he needs a breather every now and then. Mendenhall is a physical running back with the speed to break big plays. With those two in the backfield, with Gates and Chambers, this offense would be scary good.


29.Dallas Cowboys (13-3) Needs: DB,DT,MLB,RB,OL
Mario Manningham WR Michigan
Jerry Jones would love to get his hands on one of the first round caliber running backs. Don't be surprised if he snags one with his first pick. However, if he doesn't, he likely will have to wait until the second round to get a running back with any value. Instead, here he will address the offense. Tony Tomo and the offense struggled late in the year. TO is due $3 million, Terry Glenn looks finished, and Patrick Crayton has been inconsistent of late. Regardless of his trip to Cabo, Tono Romo is the QB of this team and he needs some dependability at receiver. Manningham is a big target who makes plays despite not having blinding speed. He needs to get stronger and more physical, but he will give Tony Romeo another option in the passing game.

30. San Francisco 49ers F/ Colts (5-11) Needs: OL,WR,DT,S,OLB
James Hardy WR Indiana
Even though they traded their pick to New England, San Francisco will get Indianapolis' pick here at 30. The 49ers offense anemic last season and new offensive coordinator Mike Martz will be called upon to breath life into a dormant offensive club. James Hardy may not be a Mike Martz guy but he has serious physical tools. At a legitimate 6 foot 7 230+ pounds, Hardy is a huge target with soft hands and a huge wingspan. No corner will be able to jump with him and Hardy will have an immediate impact in the redzone. He will need some work on his footwork and route running as he is a long strider. Alex Smith can help himself regain his rhythm by going down the field to Hardy early and often. That will only open up the run game for Gore and the middle of the field for Vernon Davis.

31. Green Bay Packers (13-3) Needs: S,RB,OL,TE,OLB
Fred Davis TE USC
Brett Favre must have known something we didn't when he said this was the most talented team he'd been apart of. Ryan Grant ran like a man possessed after putting the ball on the tundra twice against Seattle and he is their back of the future. Atari Bigby and Nick Collins have also stepped up considerably since the middle of the season and are making plays for the defense. The Packers could use another athlete at linebacker and depth at offensive line, but picking up an offensive play maker like Fred Davis will be too good to pass up. Davis was the man in the passing game at USC and is the kind of big athletic tight ends who create so many match-up problems. Davis will help Brett and beyond at quarterback in Green Bay, and teamed with Donald Lee could quickly become the best tight end combo in the league.
New England Patriots 16-0
Forfeit pick

Not What We Thought They Were

America's Team...perhaps that is fitting for a team that seems to believe it is highly superior to just about any alternative. With relevant political and socioeconomic analysis not necessary I will simply state: the Dallas Cowboys are the most overrated team in the NFL, perhaps pro sport currently in action (although that technically disqualifies the Cowboys who are, as of today, no longer in action...sorry TO, your tears won't get you on the ballot for Super Bowl MVP). The 2007-08 Cowboys were not the team their press clippings implied, but more importantly, they were not the team they thought they were.

The Dallas Cowboys are the most successful team in the modern era, tied for most Super Bowl wins and went through a stretch of 20 consecutive seasons with winning records. This mountain of accomplishments seems to fit Dallas, with the "Everything is bigger in Texas" slogan. With a cowboy owner and a gun slinging QB, the 2007 Cowboys were supposed to be the re-birth of Cowboy glory teams. With home field advantage through out the playoffs and a record number of Pro Bowlers, the 'Boys were supposed to roll the "weak" NFC all the way to the Super Bowl. Surprise! Here comes Eli Manning...yes that Eli Manning...and all of a sudden they become the first number 1 seed since the Wild Card format was created to lose their first playoff game at home. The Cowboys have now not one in the playoffs since Barry Switzer was the coach and Troy Aikman was the QB.

Why? What is going on here? The supposed marquee franchise of the NFL, the team whose logo is a star, has fallen from grace. Some may say "That is the nature of the NFL." Certainly Jerry Jones would reply "Then how come the Patriots can be so good for so long." The answer is simple Mr. Jones, build a team through the draft finding players who play with integrity and passion; that means no Terrell Owens, no Terrance Newman, no Tony Romo (although he had no reason to believe Romeo would be such a media whore).

The era of free agency was supposed to bring competitive balance to the NFL. Now, the Patriots are 17-0 and seemingly unstoppable after breaking the bank in the off-season to acquire new pieces. What people fail to realize is Tom Brady was a 6th round pick by the Pats, who also drafted Vince Wilfork, Asante Samuel, Ty Warren, Richard Seymour, Laurence Maroney, Daniel Graham and a plethora of other Pro Bowl caliber players. That scouting department is second to none, with the men in Indianapolis and Pittsburgh certainly right there. We see it with the Green Bay Packers and Ted Thompson. Suddenly, Thompson receives the accolades for putting together that Packer team, and he has done it through the draft. An 8-8 team became a 13-3 team playing at home for the NFC Championship with the only free agent signing Frank Walker, the team's 4th or 5th cornerback.

Jerry Jones does not have the attitude to compete in the NFL anymore. He didn't even have the pieces in place to see Ryan Grant's potential when Grant was in Jones' own division. JJ makes gambles with coaches, free agents, draft picks, and now quarterbacks. It used to be endearing, the commercials with Deion and Jones joking about how much money Prime was making. Those character flaws in his team were not harmful in the early 90's because other teams simply did not have the resources or pull to get the players Jones could get. With salary caps, profit sharing, free agency, and more advanced scouting networks, the Cowboys have not been able to remain competitive, and it isn't simply parody.

The attitude in Dallas is much like that of USC, they don't rebuild, just reload. That philosophy does not work in the NFL. It is true that for the last 5 years the New England Patriots have been one of the top 3 teams in the NFL. We must disregard 2001 because they came out of no where to win the Super Bowl and the next year went 9-7, making the playoffs in a horrible division. 5 years is not too long to expect to have success, the Colts have had similar recent success and simply not won Super Bowls, while the Eagles in the NFC were making NFC Championships common place. There is balance in the NFL, there must be. Jerry Jones refuses to lose and refuses to make the proper changes when he does lose.

The media only adds fuel to the raging inferno of pressure in Dallas. Skip Bayless wrote a book about the immense pressure of playing in Dallas, and playing quarterback for the Cowboys is often considered the hardest job in sports. Since Troy Aikman retired in 2000 the QB's in Dallas have been...well pathetic: Quincy Carter, Anthony Wright, Ryan Leaf, Clint Stoerner, Chad Hutchinson, Vinny Testaverde, Drew Henson, Drew Bledsoe, and Tony Romo. Over that stretch the Dallas Cowboys are 57-55 with exactly 0 zero playoff victories. From 2001-2007, five quarterback of won NFL MVP honors, and the Cowboys were starting Ryan Leaf at one point... Not exactly reloading.

Last year, the Cowboys were 9-7 and lost in the road in the famous Romo fumble. A 13-3 team suddenly becomes the team of the century and breaks an NFL record with 12 Pro Bowl players. The New England Patriots went 16-0 in the regular season and demolished the 'Boys IN DALLAS and only sent 8 to Hawaii. Some might point to a weak NFC, I would assert a simple lack of understanding by writers, players, and don't even start with fan voting. Roy Williams could not cover my little sister running a hitch. Ken Hamlin has been the recipient of gift interceptions due to a weak schedule (his interceptions against Cleo Lemon, Eli Manning, and a walking dead Marc Bulger shouldn't even count,) even with those he only had 5 picks, and only had more than 1 pass defended in a game TWICE. Terrance Newman isn't even one of the top 3 corners in his own division and is the most overrated defensive back in the league by a landslide (He thinks he's the second coming of Deion, only without the big play skills, coverage skills, and fewer tackling skills...ouch). Three Dallas offensive linemen were voted starters on a team ranked 17th running the ball even though they have Marion Barber and Julius Jones toting the rock. That makes Marion Barber's selection even more ridiculous...the guy runs hard, I understand, but he can't outrun anyone and he proved that on Sunday against the Giants.

Attitude reflects leadership. Wade Phillips was the perfect coach to make the Cowboys forget Bill Parcells. Wade Phillips was also the perfect coach to squander talent, a #1 seed in the playoffs and underachieve in a winnable NFC and in a division that was killed by injuries. That decision is a direct result of Jerry Jones deciding to hire a "players coach," which is code word for "soft" in the NFL (Players love playing for the Bill Belichick, but he is NOT a players coach). Jerry Jones brought a young and talented team a locker room cancer wearing #81. He then proceeded to overreact to Tony Romo's success (which could be a whole other post, but I don't have the desire to write anymore than has already been written...it nauseates me), and decided to give him an insane contract extension mid-season. Little Romeo then tanked the second half of the season throwing just 3 touchdowns to go along 5 to the wrong color jerseys following the Green Bay game.

The Dallas Cowboys won't be playing for the NFC Championship. They lost because of the team....you heard TO say it, they lost because of the team. And if you blame HIS quarterback, that is unfair. Unfortunately, he's right. This team failed because Jerry Jones' already antiquated design has worn out. Standing on the sidelines next to Wade Phillips in the closing seconds, he proved just how overbearing and oppressive he is. Mr. Jones, I know you bleed silver and blue, but before you go trade draft picks for head case wide receivers, or Dolphin punt returners, remember that Green Bay will be playing for the right to go to the Super Bowl. Ryan Grant ran for 200+ on a sloppy track at Lambeau and he was on the roster of a team you played three times this year. Take a look in the mirror and maybe you'll see the problem is wearing a $1200 suit and cuff links. Your team is overexposed, overrated, and overdue for an over HAUL. Turn on Fox around 5:30 local on Sunday, and be sure to get your popcorn ready.

State of the BCS after Two Loss Tiger Beat-Down

As of Tuesday January 8, 2008, the LSU Tigers are the National Champions of college football. The Bayou Bengals were picked by countless pundits in the preseason to be in the national title game and potentially win it. They are clearly one of the best teams in the country, certainly one of the most talented. The problem? We don't know if they're the best team in the country. But that does not mean the BCS is illegitimate.

To be clear, I am not a BCS supporter, and have not been for some time now. This year in college football was one of the craziest in history. There seems to be little discussion about that. After USC drilled Illinois and Georgia decimated Hawaii, all four teams seem to have legitimate cases for being considered the best team in the country. The problem is, the BCS does not determine the best team in college football, it determines a champion. Oh wait, that is exactly what the Super Bowl does, what the NCCA basketball tournament does, and any other playoff system you can think of. When the St. Louis Cardinals beat the Detroit Tigers to win the World Series, we did not say "The Cardinals are the best team in baseball." We said "The Cardinals are World Series Champions." The Cardinals played their best baseball in the playoffs and beat an inexperienced Tigers team. That is how champions are crowned.

Another big hurdle to denounce the BCS, they do get it right. The very first BCS Title game, Tennessee was the best team in the country and everyone knew it. They won the game, and there was no debate, the BCS had worked. Would a playoff have proved that? Maybe not. What would happen if Vince Young's Texas team hadn't met Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush in the BCS championship because VY got hurt in a playoff. We never would have had one of the greatest game in the history of the sport. The 2001 Miami team who won it all, was one of the greatest teams of all time. In 2004, USC was also clearly the best team in college football. 2003 and now 2007 have been the only times when legitimate cases could be made for split national championships. The system HAS worked.

The biggest hurdle to a playoff is simply that it is not plausible. In order to get to a plus 1 or 8 team playoff would likely mean getting rid of conference title games. However, a number of conferences have divisions now because of size and as a result need a conference championship game to crown a champion. In order to get to a playoff system, we would have to completely rearrange a number of conferences in order to create balance among conferences. That may not be a terrible idea, but college football is, and always has been about tradition. Lately, it is about the money. Too much money in bowls, conference championship games, and big divisions.

In a perfect world, I would love an eight team playoff. Football is not like March Madness, and there are not serious upsets even available because there is no 5-12 matchup. It would simply be 8 power house teams playing an extra 3 games MAXIMUM. Ditch the conference championship games and make it an 11 game season for everyone in the country. Then take the conference champions from the power conferences and two other highest rated teams in the country much like in the NFL. Simply taking the top 8 ranked teams does not reward conference champions enough and assumes some sort of balance among conferences, which we know to be untrue. The NFL system rarely leaves out deserving teams or includes undeserving teams, and the lack of balance between the AFC and NFC would be eliminated because the national rankings are not affected by a conference split. If anything, a college playoff system with 8 teams eliminates the kind of unbalance we see in the NFL or NBA when one conference is clearly superior.

A plus 1 only works AFTER the bowls, which is completely ridiculous because part of the problem of the bowls is A.) there are about 25 too many and B.) the layoff between the end of the season and bowl season is far too long. If you give every team a bye week, then take a week off before the playoffs, with an additional week before the national championship much like the Super Bowl. We are looking at a similar schedule in turns of the season being over. There would be no 50 day layoffs, or advantages to those who play championship games. There are 117 Division 1A schools; taking 8 out and keeping bowls like the Fiesta, Sugar, Orange, and Rose Bowls as sights for the playoffs does not, in any way, take away from the ability for the rest of the bowls to attain reasonable match-ups for the other 25+ bowl games. In the NFL and NBA they hand out championship trophies for winning conference titles on the way to the finals, there is no reason not to say a team can take a meaningful win out of a bowl that means nothing in directly determining a national title.

Well, that is exactly what the bowl games are now. You reward the students, so give the
m a chance to play for something REAL. The BCS is the best system we have right now, and it is the only way to crown a "champion" given the structure and priorities of college football administrators. Don't be too quick to jump on the anti-BCS bandwagon. Parody in college football is like parody in college basketball. It will continue to bring more talent to more schools, because even small schools have a shot at getting in the BCS bowl picture. A playoff system would create the kind of buzz the NFL Playoffs and March Madness brings, I'm pretty sure they find ways to make money off of that. Change it to a plus one, so we can argue about that. Then, maybe we'll have the system befitting a game with such tradition and history.

West Virginia Man

Last night, the West Virginia Mountaineers absolutely dismantled the Oklahoma Sooners 48-28. That isn't the reason Bill Stewart is the new head coach for WVU. Rich Rodriguez left West Virginia and could take as many as 9 assistant head coaches with him to Michigan. That isn't the reason Bill Stewart is the new head coach for WVU. West Virginia University is in the midst of a lawsuit to recuperate a portion of the contract Rodriquez will not be fulfilling. That isn't the reason Bill Stewart is the new head coach for WVU. Mountaineers athletic director Ed Pastilong has gone through an arduous process attempting to replace Rodriguez and was extremely emotional after the Fiesta Bowl. Even that wasn't the reason Bill Stewart is the new head coach for WVU....Ok maybe not, but that does not mean this is a bad decision.

Pastilong has drawn considerable criticism for his knee jerk hire of Stewart following a presumed once in a lifetime performance by his team. The Mountaineers dominated the Sooners from wire to wire and made Oklahoma looked overmatched and underprepared. Anyone who watched the game saw the emotion the players utilized. The defense flew around the field making plays, the the potent spread offense had the top 10 OK defense on skates all night. We see assistants hired for doing less and athletic directors don't draw this much ire from fans, boosters, and the media.

Owen Schmitt was in tears talking about the job Stewart did for this team. As Pat Forde of ESPN.com joked, Stewart was getting hugs from everyone even assistant sheriffs on the sidelines. This team returns a tremendous amount of talented players including Pat White, Noel Devine, and most likely Steve Slaton. How do you think these guys will talk about Stewart? Any potential recruit who watched this game saw the kind of fire and passion this guy inspires in his team. Stewart is a players coach, the kind of guy who makes 260 pound power fullbacks who break facemasks, break down in tears. He will be able to recruit because he is a born and raised West Virginian. He loves the state, the school, and he will be able to use the Fiesta Bowl as a jumping off point to sell WVU on potential recruits. If Stewart can't do the job, all he has to do is pop in the tape of Noel Divine and Pat White running circles around the Super Dome. Stewart will recruit and he will do it effectively, so why should he not be a head coach?

Stewart does have some experience being the head man in charge. He went 8-25 at the Virginia Military Institute, but he spend just 3 seasons as the head coach and VMI is not exactly the place to go for high school blue chippers. Stewart has spent the last 7 years at West Virginia who has reached national prominence once again and ever since they started recruiting again, this team has been a threat not only to win the Big East, but win a BCS Championship. Recruiting can be like a diesel engine, once you get it going, it can go a long time and can't be tough to slow down. Even a place like Florida State and Bobby Bowden who seems to mull retirement every year, can still get recruits because people want to play where so much talent has been before.

Recruits want to go to a place where there has been success. For the past 3 seasons, the West Virginia Mountaineers have been in National Title talks, and the fans in Morgantown are fantastic. The Big East was a bit of a disappointment this year, but has a rich tradition and still plays on a national spotlight regularly. More importantly, Stewart has three guys who will sell another generation of high school studs to committ to where the blue and yellow: Noel Divine, Steve Slaton, and Pat White. All three will be back and WVU will be a threat to win it all as front runners to roll through the Big East in 2008.

Teachers often tell their students to trust their gut when making decisions on a test. Ed Pastilong trusted his after he watched an inspired team play their heart out for a coach who got them to believe they deserved to play and win despite being touchdown dogs. The national media and fans seemed to be obsessed with "gurus" and "zenmasters" and whatever other bogus terms people use to define people who seem to succeed. Good coaches get their players prepared mentally and physically to play every game hard and well. It isn't about setting up complex schemes or trick plays. A coach's job is to prepare. Bill Stewart did that in the biggest game of his team's season. That is why Bill Stewart is the new head coach at WVU.