Well, the 2008 draft will shortly be upon us and my mock is already 1-1...well it wasn't that hard given that Jake Long signed earlier this week with the Dolphins to be the #1 pick. As usual, names are all over draft boards and late movement will cause controversy in a number of first round places. Virginia offensive lineman Brandon Albert has been rocketing up draft boards and teams believe he can play guard or tackle. Florida DE Derrick Harvey seems to be making a comeback into the top 15 as well. This mock combines what I believe will happen and what I believe ought to happen. Certainly if I believe something will happen that I think shouldn't, I will articulate, or at least attempt to do so, as we go. I'm pumped, I hope you are too!
1. Miami Dolphins (1-15) Needs: OL,DL,DB,WR,RB
Jake Long OT Michigan
Before Bill Parcells put together the staff here Glenn Dorsey seemed like the favorite, now we have learned Jake Long was the Dolphins #1 priority from day one, with Chris Long a close second. Jake Long becomes the highest paid offensive lineman in the game without ever having played a down (What a world it must be). Long will likely play left tackle for the Dolphins protecting the blindside of whoever it is calling the plays for the 'Phins, more on that in a minute. Long has everything you could ask for from a franchise tackle from a physical standpoint, but he will have to learn quickly how to deal with speed rushers at the NFL level. Luckily, the AFC East does not have many top-tier outside rushers and Long will certainly benefit from a lighter schedule.
2. St. Louis Rams (3-13) Needs: OT,LB,DB,WR,QB
Glenn Dorsey DT LSU
The Rams could really shake up the top of this draft. The New Orleans Saints desperately would like to get their hands on either Dorsey or USC's Sedrick Ellis and have been talking with the Rams about doing exactly that. The Falcons would love to be able to pass on Matt Ryan, get Dorsey and then take Brian Brohm (Of whom they are particularly fond). However, the only way that seems likely is if they can get into this second spot. Regardless of who is picking at #2, Glenn Dorsey will almost certainly be the pick. The Rams need an end more than a tackle, but drafting Dorsey would mean they could move last year's first round pick Adam Carriker to his natural end position. Whichever team lands the top defensive player in the draft will be getting one of the most disruptive forces in college football in recent memory...assuming he can stay healthy.
3. Atlanta Falcons (4-12) Needs: QB,OL,DT,LB,WR,S
Matt Ryan QB Boston College
Matt Ryan is at least third on the list of players the Falcons would prefer to draft here with J.Long and Dorsey topping the list. If the Falcons could convince the Rams to flip flop picks for a third rounder or something similar, the Falcons could land Dorsey and the Rams could get Long, leaving Carriker to play DT. That seems like a best-case scenario for both teams, but it is the NFL and things almost never make that much sense. Here, the Falcons get the top quarterback on the board and a face of the franchise. And guess what? The team Matt Ryan will go to has a stable of backs, none of whom are talented enough to be featured, to go along with an average set of receivers, and an OK offensive line...sound familiar? BC football fans are nodding.
4. Oakland Raiders (4-12) Needs: OL,WR,SS,DL,DB
Darren McFadden RB Arkansas
The smart bet seems like to draft Chris Long at a position of need, taking the son of a former Raider great and immediately endearing yourselves to your fan base once again. Not Al Davis.
While this may aggravate old school Raider fans, to be fair, Chris Long does not need the added pressure of playing for the same team his father made a Hall of Fame career with. Instead, the silver and black will get this draft's most explosive player and a potential game changer. It is not as though the Raiders already paid Justin Fargas to be their franchise running back, or have Dominic Rhodes, Lamont Jordan, or Michael Bush on their roster...nope that is exactly what they have. This would be the first really bonehead play of the first round and surprise surprise, Al Davis and co. will likely make it.
5. Kansas City Chiefs (4-12) Needs: OL,DL,WR,QB,DB
Chris Long DE Virginia
I keep hearing Brandon Albert and I simply do not see it, particularly if Sedrick Ellis and/or Chris Long are still on the board. The Chiefs fell in love with Ellis at the Senior Bowl and would love to add him to their roster. However, having trading Jared Allen, defensive end suddenly becomes a huge position of weakness and Long happens to also be the best player on the board. Long and Allen have similar games and ironically the Chiefs will likely have to pay Long similar money. As silly as it seems to trade your best defensive end and then draft one in the top 5, the Chiefs will not be able to pass up the chance to draft the best pass rusher in the draft. The offensive tackles in the AFC West are weak and Long could have a monster season for the Chiefs.
6. New York Jets (4-12) Needs: DL,WR,CB,QB,TE
Vernon Gholston DE Ohio State
The Jets would love to get McFadden here, but short of a trade into the top 3, the Jets will have to settle for the defensive player with the highest ceiling in this draft. New York loves this former Buckeye and Gholston probably sits at #2 on the Jets wish list. The former Buckeye has been compared to hybrids like DeMarcus Ware and Shawne Merriman with his outstanding athletic tools and physical presence. Jake Long will not like to see this pick by the Jets, as Gholston was one of the only players in college able to give Long trouble. This pairing would set up awesome match ups and would give us a reason to watch a Jets Dolphins game.
7. New England Patriots F/ 49ers Needs: CB,LB,S,RB,OL
Keith Rivers LB USC
Fans in the Northeast were salivating at the idea of going undefeated and then having the opportunity to draft a player like Darren McFadden. After wiping the taste of Super Bowl defeat out of their mouths, Patriots fans must deal with the reality that their defense has aged considerably and they lost two of the most dependable players in their secondary. The linebacking core could use an overhaul and Keith Rivers would be a perfect fit. Rivers plays aggressive, smart football and has the kind of versatility and instincts Bill Belichik loves. A corner would be nice, but Leodis McKelvin has been falling back down draft boards to some degree and people seem to be acknowledging what I have been saying for weeks that Rivers is worthy of a top 10 pick.
8. Baltimore Ravens (5-11) Needs: QB,CB,WR, OL,LB
Sedrick Ellis DT USC
The Cincinnati Bengals really have to hope the Ravens try to trade up to get Matt Ryan. A trade to get into the 3 spot with the Falcons would allow Atlanta to draft Sedrick Ellis and then Brian Brohm while allowing the Ravens to get Ryan. Again, this would make far too much sense. Instead, the Ravens will likely miss out on Matt Ryan and draft the best player available. Leodis McKelvin would be a definite possibility here as well, but the Ravens like to draft the best player available and Ellis represents top five talent. Ellis may not 3-4 nose tackle and could move to end in the Ravens scheme. Rex Ryan will love to have this former Trojan because he can flat out wreck havoc in opposing backfields.
9. Cincinnati Bengals (7-9) Needs: LB,DL,OL,WR,S
Ryan Clady OT Boise State
This would be truly worst-cast for the Bengals with Rivers and Ellis both gone. Derrick Harvey would be considered, but no other player at a position of need deserves to go this high. Instead, the Bengals will try to keep Carson Palmer upright, even if we do not yet know if he'll be upright throwing to Ocho Cinco or not. Clady has the potential to be the top pass-blocker in this draft and with the tackles for the Bengals getting up in age, an upgrade here with the second best offensive lineman in the draft will be a welcome addition. Brandon Albert may draw consideration because of his ability to play either guard or tackle, however I do not see him as a top 10 pick.
10. New Orleans Saints (7-9) Needs: DT,CB,TE,S,WR
Leodis McKelvin CB Troy
Linebacker, defensive tackle, and corner were the top needs entering the off-season and the Saints addressed those needs acquiring Jonathan Vilma from the Jets, signed Dan Morgan form the Panthers and Randall Gay from the Patriots. Defensive tackle remains a question and for that reason, the Saints have been actively trying to move into a position to take either Sedrick Ellis or Glenn Dorsey. Unless they can get into the top 8, that seems particularly unlikely. A flip flop with the Ravens could land the Saints with Ellis and the Ravens with McKelvin, an advantageous move for both teams, but that move would only happen if Ellis remained on the board at #8 and Matt Ryan had been picked. As a result, the Saints draft the top corner in the draft to play opposite Mike McKenzie. Randall Gay really should be playing the nickel corner spot like he did with New England, which makes the #2 corner spot a perfect place for McKelvin. The Saints need a play maker in the secondary and McKelvin has that kind of dynamic ability. He could also take some pressure off of Reggie Bush in the return game.
11. Buffalo Bills (7-9) Needs: WR,TE,CB,DE,LB
Devin Thomas WR Michigan State
Last year, the Bills made it no secret they wanted Cal RB Marshawn Lynch and were willing to reach for him at #12. Buffalo desperately wants a big, physical receiver opposite Lee Evans and while Thomas does not have the physical stature of a Limas Sweed or Malcolm Kelly, at 6-2 215 pounds a guy who can run a 4.4 40 can really help an offense at the bottom in the league in just about every passing related category. A corner like Mike Jenkins or Dominic Rodgers-Cromartie or DE Derrick Harvey will be considered here as well, but the Bills really like Thomas and believe he is the best player to help their offense. Thomas and Evans will form a dynamic former Big Ten duo and give Trent Edwards more weapons in the passing game.
12. Denver Broncos (7-9) Needs: DT,LB,OL,WR,CB
Chris Williams OT Vanderbilt
If this scenario were to play out, the Broncos would like have a difficult choice. The Broncos are rumor to believe Vanderbilt OT Chris Williams to be the #2 tackle in the draft even ahead of Ryan Clady. However, as I've stated, Brandon Albert's stock has been soaring and the two headed monster at ESPN believe Albert could even be a top 5 pick. Mike Shanahan has a tendency to fall for players and draft them regardless of position (see Jay Cutler). Denver's run defense was atrocious last year and defensive tackle and linebacker represent much bigger needs. However, Jerod Mayo or Kentwan Balmer do not warrant consideration here at 12. If the Broncos decide not to go Williams, a running back like Mendenhall or Stewart could be an option. The Broncos seem to be very high on Stewart, a trade down to grab him later could even be a possibility if a team wants to move up to grab a Richard Mendenhall or Brandon Albert. Otherwise, Chris Williams seems like the odds-on pick here.
13. Carolina Panthers (7-9) Needs: WR,DL,QB,S,TE
Derrick Harvey DE Florida
Even before Kris Jenkins left for New York and Mike Rucker left for the golf course, defensive end was a big need for the Panthers. Julius Peppers had not been the same dominant player while Jenkins and Rucker have shown their age. Brandon Albert will look very tempting for a team with questions along the offensive line, but Harvey fills a bigger need on this defense. John Fox wants to get after the quarterback and with Steve Smith and DeAngelo Williams already on offense, the defense needs a play maker more than the offense needs a guard. Derrick Harvey was one of the few players in college to give Jake Long problems and he will get a chance right away to try and make an impact rushing the passer. Harvey has tremendous talent and could make life for Julius Peppers much easier.
14. Chicago Bears (7-9) Needs: QB,G,T,RB,WR,S
Brandon Albert G/T Virginia
The only downside for the Bears getting Albert here is that they can't draft him twice. The Bears need a new running back and quarterback, but neither would be any good without some improvement upfront. The Bears need help at guard and tackle, and Olin Kruetz is not getting any younger at center. No quarterback warrants consideration here, but Richard Mendenhall would be a great fit particularly with his Illinois connection, however the Bears staff will likely be wary or drafting another running back in the first round with the way Cedric Benson has played. The Bears could look to move up to grab Matt Ryan, but Chicago brass has stated clearly that they are not looking for a quarterback in round one. That makes Brandon Albert, or the best offensive lineman available on their board the likely pick.
15. Detroit Lions (7-9) Needs: OL,DE,RB,TE,LB,DB
Richard Mendenhall RB Illinois
Offensive tackle and a rush end certainly represent bigger needs for the Lions, but with the Lions looking to emphasize the running game even more this year, the former Illini stud running back just makes too much sense. Mendenhall has the physical running style Rod Marinelli loves and the capabilities to hit the home run they have not had since Barry Sanders. Jeffrey Otah would make sense here to bolster the Lions offensive line situation, and it would be too high for Clemson DE Phillip Merling. Mendenhall has the highest value here and the Lions could take a cue from their division rival Vikings to draft an impact rookie running back.
16. Arizona Cardinals (8-8) Needs: OL,DL,LB,RB,CB
Mike Jenkins CB South Florida
Arizona would love to see Derrick Harvey or Keith Rivers to fall, but that seems highly unlikely. It now appears the Cards will take the best corner available to fill the void left when Antrel Rolle moved to safety. Dominic Rodgers-Cromartie out of Tennessee State could be the higher rated corner on the board in this spot and as a result, could be the selection. Jenkins is the more polished and physical corner, although both possess excellent athleticism and talent. Phillip Merling or Jonathan Stewart could also be considered here, but it may be too high for both. Jenkins will have his hands full trying to covering Tory Holt and Deion Branch in the West, but will be an upgrade for the Cardinals secondary and help out a lackluster pass-defense.
17. Kansas City Chiefs f/ Vikings Needs: OL,WR,CB,DL,QB
Jeffrey Otah OT Pittsburgh
K.C. gets Minnesota's 17th pick here in the Jared Allen trade and will likely take the best tackle available. This massive Pittsburgh product would instantly provide some youth and talent to an aging offensive front. Both Brody Croyle/Damon Huard and Larry Johnson would love to see Otah in this spot. Otah could be a monster in the run game and has the potential to be a stud run blocker in the NFL. The Chiefs could draft a wide receiver here to go with Dwayne Bowe, or DRC to bolster their defensive backfield, but the needs along the offensive line are simply too much. Otah has the body and talent to be a rookie starter in the trenches and the Chiefs desperately need him.
18. Houston Texans (8-8) Needs: OL,DB,RB,WR,LB
Dominic Rodgers-Cromartie Tennessee State
The Texans will likely agonize over this decision with Jonathan Stewart still on the board as well. However, I believe they will decide not to add another running back with injury problems. DRC has unparalleled athletic talent and could be the kind of difference maker in the defensive backfield the Texans need. The Texans added Jacque Reeves in the off-season but still lack a premier talent in the secondary. Rodgers-Cromartie could play corner or safety, and the Texans could experiment using him in a number of positions. DRC's versatility will make him a steal here and assuming he can adjust to NFL defensive schemes, the Texans could be getting a premier play maker at 18.
19. Philadelphia Eagles (8-8) Needs: WR,S,OL,TE,LB
Jerod Mayo LB Tennessee
Donovan McNabb may not like this pick and a player like Cal's DeSean Jackson would be a brilliant move here, giving the Eagles a receiver with return ability and big play capabilities. However, the Eagles prefer bigger receivers and feel as though they have bigger needs else where. Safety and offensive line could be more pressing issues, but with Otah gone and neither Arkansas State's Tyrelle Johnson nor Miami's Kenny Phillips warrant consideration here. Mayo has been blasting up draft boards with his speed and tenacity, although may still be a reach here. DeSean Jackson makes more sense to me, but Mayo would help a defense that struggled to consistently get stops last season.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7) Needs: CB,WR,LB,OL,RB
DeSean Jackson WR California
If the Eagles fail to act on one of the most explosive players in the draft, be sure the Bucs will. Jackson was a star in the Pac-10 returning kicks, a department in which the Buccaneers have been historically inept. Outside of Grandpa Galloway, Tampa Bay has virtually no dynamic component to its offense. Michael Clayton has not been the same receiver since his rookie season and "Cadillac Williams" has been in the shop too much to make an impact. The Bucs were a playoff team in a weak conference last season and with an upgrade on the perimeter, they could be there again. Jackson would give Jeff Garcia another deep threat and has the kind of talent to take a bubble screen 80 yards to the house. Not only would it help Jeff Garcia, but it would make Clayton and Galloway's job much easier.
21. Washington Redskins (9-7) Needs: DL,WR,OL,DB,LB
Phillip Merling DE Clemson
I am sure the Redskins would gladly give up this pick to get Chad Johnson, but the Bengals have seemingly ended that possibility. Still, the Redskins would like to get a wide receiver in the first round and Malcolm Kelly or Limas Sweed definitely will draw consideration. Ultimately though, I believe the Redskins will look to bolster their defensive line with Merling. The former Clemson stand-out would give tenacity and toughness to an aging Redskin pass-rush. I would not be surprised to see a receiver here, although both Kelly and Sweed carry second round grades on some boards. Merling's ability has been overblown by some, but he should have value here. Kentwan Balmer could also go here if the 'Skins decide to go defensive line.
22. Dallas Cowboys F/ Browns (13-3) Needs: DB,DT,MLB,RB,OL
Felix Jones RB Arkansas
With Darren McFadden long off the board, Jerry Jones will have to settle for his former-Razorback running back Felix Jones. The Cowboys got Pacman Jones from the Titans earlier this week, but there is no assurance he can be anything close to the player he was before being suspended. That could mean a corner in this spot, but with two first round picks Jones will take a gamble here. Jones could be a big boost behind Marion Barber and would be an upgrade in the return game as well. Jones' speed and elusiveness will compliment Barber's violent, power running style. With Barber softening defenses all game, Jones could break big plays in the second half of games with tired legs on defense. This does not correspond to Jones' value, but the fit is perfect and it makes too much sense not to happen...then again it is Jerry Jones.
23. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) Needs: OT,S,WR,OLB,DE
Jonathan Stewart RB Oregon
Willie Parker's broken fibula has to concern the Steelers and although problems along the offensive front and depth in the receiving core remain an issue, the Steeler's offensive game has always been predicated on a solid running game. Stewart will not make people remember Jerome Bettis, but he is a huge, physical back with enough speed to make the big play, as well as the hands to be versatilite in the passing game. Willie Parker's health could bring concerns about his ability to carry the load. Malcolm Kelly or Limas Sweed will be considered, however neither would bring the kind of insurance and upgrade Stewart could in the backfield. The Oregon running back has been dropped down boards because of his toe surgery, however he seems to be coming back up and may not even fall this far.
24. Tennessee Titans (10-6) Needs: WR,CB,LB,DT,OL
Limas Sweed WR Texas
A few weeks ago if you had said Malcolm Kelly would be on the board when the Titans were picking I would have laughed. Now, not only could he be there, but the Titans could actually pass on him in favor of Limas Sweed. The Titans badly need a true #1 for Vince Young and Sweed hit the map with VY on their way to the National Championship. The Titans could use help at corner and linebacker as well, however Sweed or Kelly just seem too good to pass up here. Both are big strong receivers, but Sweed has better speed and was more productive for longer at Texas. Ultimately, the Titans will have to add a play maker to their offense, and it should be Sweed here.
25. Seattle Seahawks (10-6) Needs: WR,TE,DB,OL,LB
Malcolm Kelly WR Oklahoma
If the Titans pass on Kelly, do not expect the Seahawks to waste any time picking up him. The 'Hawks lost D.J. Hackett to the Carolina Panthers and Deion Branch's knee remains a question. Kelly's stock has dipped since a disappointing work out, however Kelly has big time size and hands. He could be a good fit for the West Coast system and will certainly be a threat in the red zone. Taking the once #1 rated receiver here at 25 would be a steal for the Seahawks to add a weapon for Matt Hasslebeck. It seemed a lock to take a running back in this spot, but with the top backs gone and the addition of Julius Jones, that seems significantly less likely now. Purdue's Dustin Keller or USC's Fred Davis could also be picks here as Mike Holmgren has not had a consistent tight end since he came to the Pacific Northwest. If Kelly is here however, he should be the pick.
26. Jacksonville Jaguars (11-5) Needs: DL,LB,S,WR,CB
Kentwan Balmer DT North Carolina
The Jacksonville Jaguars may take a cue from the Kansas City Chiefs and draft a player to fill the void left by a traded defensive stalwart. The Jaguars traded Marcus Stroud to the Bills in the off-season and now have a giant gap along the defensive front. Kentwan Balmer had a phenomenal senior season at UNC when he finally lived up to his potential. Balmer has pass-rush skills and can anchor against the run as well. Receiver and linebacker are also concerns, but neither Indiana's James Hardy nor Michigan's Mario Manningham really fit here. Balmer could also play end if necessary, although his more natural position would be at tackle. He would seriously benefit from playing next to John Henderson who will draw extra attention.
27. San Diego Chargers (11-5) Needs: DB,MLB,DL,LB,RB
Calais Campbell DE Miami (Florida)
San Diego has the luxury of drafting just about anyone in this spot. The Chargers have very few holes on their team and look to just add depth. Corner could certainly be the pick and Aqib Talib would be a great addition next to Antonio Cromartie. However, the Chargers have been looking to add a powerful defensive end to their defense and Campbell fits this team perfectly. Campbell could really thrive as an end in the Chargers 3-4 system using his massive frame to open lanes for others, while using his quickness to get to the QB himself. The Chargers could use a running back to go alongside LT, but with the top backs gone, it is too high to reach on guys like Chris Johnson and Jamaal Charles. Campbell has the talent to be a force, particularly with guys like Phillips and Merriman drawing so much attention around him.
28.Dallas Cowboys (13-3) Needs: DB,DT,MLB,OL
Aqib Talib CB Kansas
As I've stated, Pacman Jones certainly does not solve the Cowboys problems in the defensive backfield. James Hardy or Mario Manningham could be higher on Jerry Jones' priority list, however, Talib has much more value here than either wide receiver. Talib's ball skills are second to none in this draft and would be a welcome change from the stone hands of Roy Williams. The Cowboys secondary has been wildly overrated so it would make sense they take another overrated corner prospect here. The difference is, they will be stealing him rather than reaching for him at 28. Talib probably will not be the shut down corner his press clippings would lead you to believe, but he could be a solid corner and has the kind of play making ability Jerry Jones loves. Talib is a perfect fit for the Cowboys.
29. San Francisco 49ers F/ Colts (5-11) Needs: OL,WR,DL,S,OLB
Gosder Cherilus OT Boston College
San Francisco should be picking #7, but traded for Joe Staley last year and only makes it back into the first round following a trade with Colts. Mike Nolan's job will be on the line and with new offensive coordinate Mike Martz, it will be up to the offense to pick up the slack on a team that had no offensive identity last season other than "sloppy." The 49ers have not had an explosive receiver since TO left and could really use one here so James Hardy and Mario Manningham remain options. However, the 49ers got DeShaun Foster and have Frank Gore and will need to open lanes up to ease the burden on Alix Smith. Gosder Cherilus disappointed to some degree as a senior, but has the physical tools to be a mauler at tackle. The 49ers pick again at the top of the second and should have a chance to add a solid wide receiver there, something I expect them to do.
30. Green Bay Packers (13-3) Needs: CB,TE,OL,LB,DE
Brandon Flowers CB Virginia Tech
Green Bay has the opportunity here to do a number of things. They could take the best safety in this class and bolster their depth at the position. They could take the best tight end in the class and give Aaron Rodgers another weapon on a team full of play makers. They could also take an offensive lineman like Sam Baker to add depth behind the aging tackles already in place. However, with the way Eli Manning torched this vaunted Packer secondary, I expect to see the physical former Hokie at this spot. Flowers could be a top 15 pick if he had run a little faster at the combine. He plays the the kind of physical confident man to man game that the Packers have made so successful with Al Harris and Charles Woodson. Depth at the position is not great, and at the very least Flowers could will be in a nickel/dime role and a big contributor on special teams right away.
31.New York Giants (10-6) Needs: LB,DB,WR,OL
Kenny Phillips S Miami (Florida)
Superb depth may not be the reason the Giants won the Super Bowl, but they will get to add depth here with the 31st pick. Without a true glaring need, the Giants can take whomever they feel has the most value here. A linebacker like Penn State's Dan Connor would upgrade an overachieving linebacking core. However, Phillips makes the most sense with the loss of Gibril Wilson. The former Hurricane was considered a top 15 pick before disappointing work outs and a sub-standard junior campaign. Phillips was a great defensive player at Miami as a sophomore and has enough potential to be a solid safety for the Giants. New York has plenty of defensive backs, just none about whom you can really be excited. Phillips has that element in his game and can bring some excitement and tenacity to this already stellar Giants defense.
New England Patriots 16-0
Forfeit pick: Cheating
32.) Miami Dolphins - Chad Henne QB Michigan
The first thing new administrations tend to do is get their guy at QB...this is "their guy" sorry John Beck
33.) St. Louis Rams - Dan Connor LB Penn State
Rams get first round talent to fill one of their biggest needs, and a guy who knows how to win.
34.) Kansas City Chiefs - Brian Brohm QB Louisivlle
Brohm's accuracy and poise just too good to pass up for a team clearly rebuilding.
35.) Atlanta Falcons F/ Raiders - Sam Baker OT USC
Falcons get a guy to protect Matt Ryan's blindside, one of the best pass-blockers in the draft.
36.) New York Jets - James Hardy WR Indiana
The Jets like Cotchery, but Coles is not getting any younger and Clemmens needs help.
37.) Atlanta Falcons - Curtis Lofton LB Oklahoma
New head coach Mike Smith will love Lofton's toughness and smarts for his new defense.
38.) Baltimore Ravens - Joe Flacco QB Delaware
Having missed out on Matt Ryan, the Ravens take the guy second on many draft boards.
39.) San Francisco 49ers - Early Doucet WR LSU
49ers get the receiver they fell in love with at the Senior Bowl to help out Alix Smith
40.) New Orleans Saints - Dustin Keller TE Purdue
Keller brings another dimension to the Saints already potent offense in the only area it lacked.
41.) Buffalo Bills - Fred Davis TE USC
Another weapon for Trent Edwards to go along with Lynch and Evans to get down the middle.
42.) Denver Broncos - Pat Sims DT Auburn
Broncos may have traded for a DT, but their defense really was THAT bad against the run.
43.) Carolina Panthers - Tyrelle Johnson S Arkansas State
Johnson has been rising quickly on boards and fills a big void in the Panther's secondary.
44.) Chicago Bears - Mario Manningham WR Michigan
The Bears have NO receivers and Manningham is used to playing to playing with erratic QB's.
45.) Detroit Lions - Quinten Groves DE Auburn
Groves fits the 3-4 scheme better, but he can really get after the QB with ferocity.
46.) Cincinnati Bengals - Lawrence Jackson DE USC
Bad luck with USC DE's will not keep the Bengals from adding the versatile Trojan end.
47.) Minnesota Vikings - Jordy Nelson WR Kansas State
With no real #1, Nelson will be a good possession compliment to the deep speed of Berrian.
48.) Atlanta Falcons F/Texans - Tracey Porter CB Indiana
Having traded DeAngelo Hall, the Falcons add another speedy corner with big-play ability.
49.) Philadelphia Eagles -Lavelle Hawkins WR Cal
Hawkins' big-play talent and return potential makes him a good fit despite his lack of size.
50.) Arizona Cardinals - Chris Johnson RB East Carolina
The Edge is not getting any younger and Johnson could be the back of the future in Arizona.
51.) Washington Redskins - Chilo Rachal G USC
Redskins get the best guard in the draft not named Brandon Albert at the bottom of the second.
52.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Reggie Smith CB/S Oklahoma
Smith's strength and versatility make him a perfect fit to thrive in the Tampa 2.
53.) Pittsburgh Steelers - Justin King CB Penn State
No real value at WR or OL means the best corner left to keep up with the WR's in the AFC.
54.) Tennessee Titans - Cliff Avril DE/OLB Purdue
Needing help at both defensive line and linebacker, the Titans add a player who can play both.
55.) Seattle Seahawks - Jamaal Charles RB Texas
Even with Julius Jones and Mo' Morris, the Seahawks would love to get big-play specialist.
56.) Green Bay Packers F/ Browns - Martellus Bennett TE Texas A&M
The best blocking tight end in the draft would help Ryan Grant as well as A-Rod in the red zone.
57.) Miami Dolphins F/ Chargers - Trevor Laws DT/DE Notre Dame
One of the most productive lineman in college football will be perfect for the Dolphins 3-4 D.
58.) Jacksonville Jaguars - Antoine Cason CB/S Arizona
In the AFC, you can never have too many DB's, especially when Indianpolis is in your division.
59.) Indianapolis Colts - Dre Moore DT Maryland
Colts are still looking for a long-term solution at tackle and Moore has plenty of potential.
60.) Green Bay Packers - Anthony Collins OT Kansas
Collins size and agility make him too good to pass up, adding depth to an aging tackle group.
61.) Dallas Cowboys - Andre Caldwell WR Florida
Caldwell can be extremely productive with Romo and company taking the focus.
62.) New England Patriots - Ray Rice RB Rutgers
Value pick with the Pats looking to eventually replace Kevin Faulk and give Maroney some rest.
63.) New York Giants - Xavier Adibi LB Virginia Tech
No real value at other positions of need make one of the best linebackers in the draft the choice.
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Friday, April 18, 2008
NFL Draft Preview: Running Backs
Tom Brady may have been the MVP last season, but Adrian Peterson had one of the finest rookie seasons in the history of the league at any position. In a copy cast league, scouts are going to be looking for that impact rookie running back. With two-back systems becoming more popular and the short self life of NFL running backs, every team could use depth at running back. The Kansas City Chiefs seemed silly to draft Larry Johnson when they had Priest Holmes in his prime, but just a few years later they look like visionaries. Similarly, the Vikings drafted AP knowing they had Chester Taylor already. As a result, teams like the Falcons, Raiders, and Jets could all consider drafting Darren McFadden and another dozen teams could all be willing to take one of these running backs if they fall. Teams like Arizona, Chicago, Detroit, and Houston are the most likely to be looking running back in the top 20. And at least 3 running backs are worthy of top 20 consideration with another two potentially landing in round one. This class has great talent from top to bottom, considerably more than the 2007 class. As many as 10 running backs could be taken in the first three rounds.
1.) Darren McFadden 6-1 211 Arkansas
Explosive. That really can be the only way to describe Darren McFadden. He has been one of the most dynamic players in college football since he got to Arkansas, even more so than Adrian Peterson at Oklahoma. However, that does not necessarily mean McFadden will have an AP type impact as a rookie. McFadden has more speed and quickness than Peterson, but McFadden can be a long strider and does not play the physical brand of football Peterson does. D-Mac possesses great vision and can even read out of the shotgun (Wild Hog) formation playing a quasi-quarterback formation. Speed is outstanding, but McFadden will not over power many defenders and must improve his blocking. McFadden could turn a franchise around, particularly if the character concerns are as far behind him as he would like teams to believe. While I worry about his high running style and long legs, his explosiveness and versatility make him the top talent in this draft and a sure fire top 5 pick. McFadden has essentially four potential destinations. 1.) He goes to Atlanta with third overall pick, however this seems the least likely (even if it makes sense for Atlanta). 2.)He falls to Oakland at #4, probably the most likely given Al Davis has fallen in love with D-Mac (even if this makes the least sense for Oakland). 3.) He falls to New York at #6, which is not as unrealistic as it could seem given McFadden is the most talented player in the draft. 4.) A team like New York or Team X ( I dunno Dallas?) trades into the top 5 to grab McFadden. Either way, he will not get past the Jets at pick six overall.
2.) Richard Mendenhall 5-11 225 Illinois
McFadden has been compared to Adrian Peterson because of his potential impact in the NFL right away. However, Mendenhall's running style is much closer to that of AP's. Mendenhall runs with a forward lean and great balance. He drives his legs and can punish opponents. On the other hand, he does not have the kind of agility of a McFadden or some of the other players on this list. That does not mean Mendenhall is not explosive. This former Illini back runs a sub 4.5 40 and has a second gear in space to break big plays. Anyone who watched him against USC's dominant defense in the Rose Bowl knows how talented this kid is. Mendenhall also may be a better pass catcher than either McFadden or Peterson and has excellent versatility. Mendenhall has been climbing draft boards since August and his stock seems to have reached its apex. Mendenhall's combination of power and speed, plus his ability to make plays in the passing game out of the backfield gives him franchise back potential. Every team starting with Denver at #12 to Arizona at #16 would love to see him on the board when he pick. If Clady and Rivers are both off the board at #12 do not be surprised to see Denver jump all over this former Illini stud.
3.) Jonathan Stewart 5-10 235 Oregon
Dennis Dixon received a tremendous amount of credit for bringing the Oregon football program back to prominence this past season. However, after Dixon went down, Stewart proved he was the best player on this team and one of the best in college football. Unfortunately, Stewart's stock had been soaring and then he had surgery on his toe. Stewart puncuated his season and career as a Duck with a 23 carry 253 yard rushing performance against a talented South Florida defense in the Sun Bowl. Stewart ran for 1,722 yards a junior and for a back his size, did it with outstanding balance and vision. He has quick feet and played in a scheme where he had to read his blockers and make cuts. He can change direction and get up to speed in a hurry, something that makes him particularly dangerous in the passing game taking screens out of the backfield. Despite his stocky frame, Stewart is not a power back, but he has the size and strength to prevent him from getting bullied. Stewart has been nicked up most of his career, but for a running back in a major conference it cannot be too big a concern, especially considering this guy's talent level. The toe remains a question mark at this point and Stewart has had his share of durability issues, mostly minor, nagging injuries all football players inevitably have. However, Stewart brings rare combination of power and speed. Some believe the injury issues have knocked him out of the first round, but that simply seems out of the question. If the Cardinals think he will be OK medically he could go as high as #16. Do not expect him to fall past San Diego at 27, he even reminds me of former Charger Michael Turner.
4.) Felix Jones 5-10 207 Arkansas
Running in the shadow of Darren McFadden, Jones finished his career at Arkansas with a yards per carry (7.6) second in NCCA history. The "other" Razorback runner also returned four kickoffs for touchdowns and has explosion in the return game. Jones' speed cannot be quantified in numbers, but he does run a sub 4.5 40. He can break away from defenders with a great first step and gets to the linebackers in a hurry. In the open field, Jones has the athleticism to make people miss with home run-type wiggle. Jones also has great hands out of the backfield and will have great third-down value for NFL teams. Jones has never carried the load on his own, but perhaps that benefits him. He is a change of pace back and with more and more two-back systems in the NFL, any team would love a guy with big-play capabilities who you can line up anywhere and he will help you in the run game or passing game. Jones represents one of the most versatile, if unproven, backs in this draft. While Jerry Jones may be in love with Darren McFadden, as an Arkansas man, he loves this former-Razorback with whom he shares his namesake as well. Jones' explosive play and return skills would make him a perfect compliment to bullish style of Marion Barber III. Whether it is pick 22 or 28 (His value seems better suited for 28, although Jerry may want him bad enough to ahead at 22), Jones seems like a shoo-in to put on a Cowboy cap come draft day.
5.) Chris Johnson 5-11 197 East Carolina
Johnson and Jones have very similar games and could have similar roles on the next level. If you thought Jones was fast, how about a 4.24 40 yard dash? That is serious speed and this guy plays as fast as he times. Johnson has experience as a running back, wide receiver, and a kick returner. As such, much like Jones, he could be lined up anywhere and defenses would have to respect his explosiveness. However, Johnson does not have great instincts for a running back and is not the cerebral player Jones is. Durability and strength are also an issue as Johnson's slight frame could be a concern with the bigger, more physical defenses in the NFL. Where he plays in a third down role, or becomes an every down player, Johnson will have to improve his blocking so he can be in on more passing plays. Can he be successful running the ball inside? He will certainly have to get stronger and more physical to pound the rock inside the tackles. Scouts differ on their opinion of Johnson as a first round talent, however he certainly has first round speed. His versatility and explosion make him a game-changer and a hot attraction for fans. A team could fall in love with him and draft him at the end of the first or bottom of the second round, but with the depth at the position, I expect he will go to the Bears or the Cardinals in round two.
6.) Jamaal Charles 5-11 200 Texas
Jamaal Charles will be the next in line of great Texas running backs to get to the NFL. Teams looking for a running back will have to hope his on the field production looks more like Ricky Williams than Cedric Benson (And hope his off-field life looks like neither). Either way, Charles would do well to ignore his Longhorn predecessors and try to pave his own path. Besides, Charles shares very few characteristics with Williams and Benson. Charles' game is predicated on speed and agility. He is capable of hitting a cutback lane and taking it to the house. Charles plays with balance and with his body underneath him. He has a strong upper body and if you do not take him on low, he has the strength to bull over defenders, particularly corners who tend try and drag and tackle. Charles also possesses adequate hands out of the backfield and will be a threat in the passing game. No one will accuse Charles of being a power bank and he will have to get stronger to be a pile-pushing back on short yardage plays. Durability is also a concern and he's only carried the full load for one season. Teams appear to have fallen for Ray Rice out of Rutgers, but before the combine I believed Jamaal Charles to be the fifth best back in this year's draft. Only Johnson's outstanding work outs have pushed him to fifth, and Charles runs with track speed also. For whatever reason, this former Longhorn has been flying under the radar. Do not be surprised if a team like Green Bay or New England makes sure he does not fall further than he ought to at the bottom of round two. (There have also been rumors that the Titans would love to see Charles reunited with VY)
7.) Ray Rice 5-8 199 Rutgers
Production has never been an issue for this former Scarlett Knight. As a junior, Rice rushed for over 2,000 yards and found the end zone 24 times. He has been the focal point of the Rutgers offense for the past two seasons and even when teams knew he was getting the ball, they still could not stop him. Rice has a low center of gravity, playing with great toughness and power. He possesses excellent balance and vision. Rice will hit cutback lanes hards can accelerate quickly. He does not have breakaway speed, but runs in the 4.5 range and can still make big plays. Rice will not make many people miss and that kind of beating could wear on him, particularly with all the carries he has gotten already in his career. As I stated earlier, Rice's stock has been up despite his diminutive stature. He has a ton of miles on him already, but teams believe that shows his capability to carry an offense. I love Ray Rice, I have always loved watching him at Rutgers and I think he was a tremendous college back. I also believe he will get picked in the mid second round where so many teams are looking for running backs. Unfortunately, he will likely go ahead of Charles, which I believe to be a mistake.
8.) Steve Slaton 5-9 197 West Virginia
Slaton is the one underclassmen on this list who really could have benefitted from another year in college. The former Mountaineer was highly productive in college, but had a relatively disappointing 2007 season and people questioned his toughness and even his explosiveness. As an underclassman, Slaton showed the kind of big-play ability talent evaluators look for. He has great vision and understands lanes extremely well. Slaton's hands are excellent and he could even make a transition to receiver if teams feel like he cannot stand up to the beating of an NFL running back. Slaton has a great burst and can be extremely slippery in space. However, his blocking his suspect and Slaton never really proved he could run between the tackles. Players like Slaton drives coaches, scouts, and front-office people nuts. Slaton was one of the most explosive players in college football over the last three seasons and produced 55 total touchdowns in three seasons. However, he did not have the kind of dominant junior season many expected and even lost carries to true freshman Noel Devine (although, no shame there) His versatility give him great value as a third down back and returner, although he may never be a franchise back. He seems to have the talent, we just do not know what we're going to get. Once a first rounder, Slaton probably has dropped out of the second into the top of the third round.
9.) Matt Forte 6-1 217 Tulane
Forte represents the only true power back on this list. Forte runs low to the ground and drives his legs to churn out yards. He shows good patience and vision, making his reads and getting through the line without getting off balance. Forte was one of the hot topics of the Senior Bowl as scouts were anxious to see the nation's second leading rusher against top level talent. He proved he was a smart player who had the talent worthy of his gaudy statistics. On the other hand, Forte lacks the true home run ability of some of the other bigger backs in the draft like Mendenhall and Stewart. Forte did run sub 4.5 40's, but he does not have that second gear to put distance between himself and a defender (Like Mendenhall). It would not surprise me to see Forte's name ahead of Slaton's on a team's draft board. His stock has risen steadily since a strong Senior Bowl and it seemed like every team was watching him closely to see what kind of player he could be. His power and blocking skills make him valuable in any system, although teams looking for a big-play threat will want to look elsewhere. Even so, Forte will be a hot commodity come draft day and is a legitimate third round player.
10.) Kevin Smith 6-1 217 Central Florida
Kevin Smith could have returned for his senior season, but after nearly breaking the single season rushing record, Smith was not going to get significantly better as a senior and his stock was as high as it was going to be. Smith runs with tremendous vision. He does not have break away speed, but reads his blocks so well, he uses cutback lanes to get defenders out of position. He has the lower-body strength and power to get the tough yards in between the tackles. Smith does not have very much shiftiness in his game, but he does flash the ability to make a man miss and get extra yards. Smith was not used very much in the passing game and his receiving skills must improve. Smith's best years appear to be in front of him and he could be the type of player who just knows how to play the game effectively. When you are in the college football annals next to a guy like Barry Sanders, I think any questions about your ability to play have been answered. Smith will need to get bigger, and questions about his break-away ability will remain, but he can flat-out pound the ball. He will be a workhorse and it would not surprise me if he outperformed running backs taken ahead of him. It may be disappointing for college football purists that a guy who fell 61 yards short of the single season rushing record at a D-1 school would not be a first day pick, but realists will see he is a third round pick.
1.) Darren McFadden 6-1 211 Arkansas
Explosive. That really can be the only way to describe Darren McFadden. He has been one of the most dynamic players in college football since he got to Arkansas, even more so than Adrian Peterson at Oklahoma. However, that does not necessarily mean McFadden will have an AP type impact as a rookie. McFadden has more speed and quickness than Peterson, but McFadden can be a long strider and does not play the physical brand of football Peterson does. D-Mac possesses great vision and can even read out of the shotgun (Wild Hog) formation playing a quasi-quarterback formation. Speed is outstanding, but McFadden will not over power many defenders and must improve his blocking. McFadden could turn a franchise around, particularly if the character concerns are as far behind him as he would like teams to believe. While I worry about his high running style and long legs, his explosiveness and versatility make him the top talent in this draft and a sure fire top 5 pick. McFadden has essentially four potential destinations. 1.) He goes to Atlanta with third overall pick, however this seems the least likely (even if it makes sense for Atlanta). 2.)He falls to Oakland at #4, probably the most likely given Al Davis has fallen in love with D-Mac (even if this makes the least sense for Oakland). 3.) He falls to New York at #6, which is not as unrealistic as it could seem given McFadden is the most talented player in the draft. 4.) A team like New York or Team X ( I dunno Dallas?) trades into the top 5 to grab McFadden. Either way, he will not get past the Jets at pick six overall.
2.) Richard Mendenhall 5-11 225 Illinois
McFadden has been compared to Adrian Peterson because of his potential impact in the NFL right away. However, Mendenhall's running style is much closer to that of AP's. Mendenhall runs with a forward lean and great balance. He drives his legs and can punish opponents. On the other hand, he does not have the kind of agility of a McFadden or some of the other players on this list. That does not mean Mendenhall is not explosive. This former Illini back runs a sub 4.5 40 and has a second gear in space to break big plays. Anyone who watched him against USC's dominant defense in the Rose Bowl knows how talented this kid is. Mendenhall also may be a better pass catcher than either McFadden or Peterson and has excellent versatility. Mendenhall has been climbing draft boards since August and his stock seems to have reached its apex. Mendenhall's combination of power and speed, plus his ability to make plays in the passing game out of the backfield gives him franchise back potential. Every team starting with Denver at #12 to Arizona at #16 would love to see him on the board when he pick. If Clady and Rivers are both off the board at #12 do not be surprised to see Denver jump all over this former Illini stud.
3.) Jonathan Stewart 5-10 235 Oregon
Dennis Dixon received a tremendous amount of credit for bringing the Oregon football program back to prominence this past season. However, after Dixon went down, Stewart proved he was the best player on this team and one of the best in college football. Unfortunately, Stewart's stock had been soaring and then he had surgery on his toe. Stewart puncuated his season and career as a Duck with a 23 carry 253 yard rushing performance against a talented South Florida defense in the Sun Bowl. Stewart ran for 1,722 yards a junior and for a back his size, did it with outstanding balance and vision. He has quick feet and played in a scheme where he had to read his blockers and make cuts. He can change direction and get up to speed in a hurry, something that makes him particularly dangerous in the passing game taking screens out of the backfield. Despite his stocky frame, Stewart is not a power back, but he has the size and strength to prevent him from getting bullied. Stewart has been nicked up most of his career, but for a running back in a major conference it cannot be too big a concern, especially considering this guy's talent level. The toe remains a question mark at this point and Stewart has had his share of durability issues, mostly minor, nagging injuries all football players inevitably have. However, Stewart brings rare combination of power and speed. Some believe the injury issues have knocked him out of the first round, but that simply seems out of the question. If the Cardinals think he will be OK medically he could go as high as #16. Do not expect him to fall past San Diego at 27, he even reminds me of former Charger Michael Turner.
4.) Felix Jones 5-10 207 Arkansas
Running in the shadow of Darren McFadden, Jones finished his career at Arkansas with a yards per carry (7.6) second in NCCA history. The "other" Razorback runner also returned four kickoffs for touchdowns and has explosion in the return game. Jones' speed cannot be quantified in numbers, but he does run a sub 4.5 40. He can break away from defenders with a great first step and gets to the linebackers in a hurry. In the open field, Jones has the athleticism to make people miss with home run-type wiggle. Jones also has great hands out of the backfield and will have great third-down value for NFL teams. Jones has never carried the load on his own, but perhaps that benefits him. He is a change of pace back and with more and more two-back systems in the NFL, any team would love a guy with big-play capabilities who you can line up anywhere and he will help you in the run game or passing game. Jones represents one of the most versatile, if unproven, backs in this draft. While Jerry Jones may be in love with Darren McFadden, as an Arkansas man, he loves this former-Razorback with whom he shares his namesake as well. Jones' explosive play and return skills would make him a perfect compliment to bullish style of Marion Barber III. Whether it is pick 22 or 28 (His value seems better suited for 28, although Jerry may want him bad enough to ahead at 22), Jones seems like a shoo-in to put on a Cowboy cap come draft day.
5.) Chris Johnson 5-11 197 East Carolina
Johnson and Jones have very similar games and could have similar roles on the next level. If you thought Jones was fast, how about a 4.24 40 yard dash? That is serious speed and this guy plays as fast as he times. Johnson has experience as a running back, wide receiver, and a kick returner. As such, much like Jones, he could be lined up anywhere and defenses would have to respect his explosiveness. However, Johnson does not have great instincts for a running back and is not the cerebral player Jones is. Durability and strength are also an issue as Johnson's slight frame could be a concern with the bigger, more physical defenses in the NFL. Where he plays in a third down role, or becomes an every down player, Johnson will have to improve his blocking so he can be in on more passing plays. Can he be successful running the ball inside? He will certainly have to get stronger and more physical to pound the rock inside the tackles. Scouts differ on their opinion of Johnson as a first round talent, however he certainly has first round speed. His versatility and explosion make him a game-changer and a hot attraction for fans. A team could fall in love with him and draft him at the end of the first or bottom of the second round, but with the depth at the position, I expect he will go to the Bears or the Cardinals in round two.
6.) Jamaal Charles 5-11 200 Texas
Jamaal Charles will be the next in line of great Texas running backs to get to the NFL. Teams looking for a running back will have to hope his on the field production looks more like Ricky Williams than Cedric Benson (And hope his off-field life looks like neither). Either way, Charles would do well to ignore his Longhorn predecessors and try to pave his own path. Besides, Charles shares very few characteristics with Williams and Benson. Charles' game is predicated on speed and agility. He is capable of hitting a cutback lane and taking it to the house. Charles plays with balance and with his body underneath him. He has a strong upper body and if you do not take him on low, he has the strength to bull over defenders, particularly corners who tend try and drag and tackle. Charles also possesses adequate hands out of the backfield and will be a threat in the passing game. No one will accuse Charles of being a power bank and he will have to get stronger to be a pile-pushing back on short yardage plays. Durability is also a concern and he's only carried the full load for one season. Teams appear to have fallen for Ray Rice out of Rutgers, but before the combine I believed Jamaal Charles to be the fifth best back in this year's draft. Only Johnson's outstanding work outs have pushed him to fifth, and Charles runs with track speed also. For whatever reason, this former Longhorn has been flying under the radar. Do not be surprised if a team like Green Bay or New England makes sure he does not fall further than he ought to at the bottom of round two. (There have also been rumors that the Titans would love to see Charles reunited with VY)
7.) Ray Rice 5-8 199 Rutgers
Production has never been an issue for this former Scarlett Knight. As a junior, Rice rushed for over 2,000 yards and found the end zone 24 times. He has been the focal point of the Rutgers offense for the past two seasons and even when teams knew he was getting the ball, they still could not stop him. Rice has a low center of gravity, playing with great toughness and power. He possesses excellent balance and vision. Rice will hit cutback lanes hards can accelerate quickly. He does not have breakaway speed, but runs in the 4.5 range and can still make big plays. Rice will not make many people miss and that kind of beating could wear on him, particularly with all the carries he has gotten already in his career. As I stated earlier, Rice's stock has been up despite his diminutive stature. He has a ton of miles on him already, but teams believe that shows his capability to carry an offense. I love Ray Rice, I have always loved watching him at Rutgers and I think he was a tremendous college back. I also believe he will get picked in the mid second round where so many teams are looking for running backs. Unfortunately, he will likely go ahead of Charles, which I believe to be a mistake.
8.) Steve Slaton 5-9 197 West Virginia
Slaton is the one underclassmen on this list who really could have benefitted from another year in college. The former Mountaineer was highly productive in college, but had a relatively disappointing 2007 season and people questioned his toughness and even his explosiveness. As an underclassman, Slaton showed the kind of big-play ability talent evaluators look for. He has great vision and understands lanes extremely well. Slaton's hands are excellent and he could even make a transition to receiver if teams feel like he cannot stand up to the beating of an NFL running back. Slaton has a great burst and can be extremely slippery in space. However, his blocking his suspect and Slaton never really proved he could run between the tackles. Players like Slaton drives coaches, scouts, and front-office people nuts. Slaton was one of the most explosive players in college football over the last three seasons and produced 55 total touchdowns in three seasons. However, he did not have the kind of dominant junior season many expected and even lost carries to true freshman Noel Devine (although, no shame there) His versatility give him great value as a third down back and returner, although he may never be a franchise back. He seems to have the talent, we just do not know what we're going to get. Once a first rounder, Slaton probably has dropped out of the second into the top of the third round.
9.) Matt Forte 6-1 217 Tulane
Forte represents the only true power back on this list. Forte runs low to the ground and drives his legs to churn out yards. He shows good patience and vision, making his reads and getting through the line without getting off balance. Forte was one of the hot topics of the Senior Bowl as scouts were anxious to see the nation's second leading rusher against top level talent. He proved he was a smart player who had the talent worthy of his gaudy statistics. On the other hand, Forte lacks the true home run ability of some of the other bigger backs in the draft like Mendenhall and Stewart. Forte did run sub 4.5 40's, but he does not have that second gear to put distance between himself and a defender (Like Mendenhall). It would not surprise me to see Forte's name ahead of Slaton's on a team's draft board. His stock has risen steadily since a strong Senior Bowl and it seemed like every team was watching him closely to see what kind of player he could be. His power and blocking skills make him valuable in any system, although teams looking for a big-play threat will want to look elsewhere. Even so, Forte will be a hot commodity come draft day and is a legitimate third round player.
10.) Kevin Smith 6-1 217 Central Florida
Kevin Smith could have returned for his senior season, but after nearly breaking the single season rushing record, Smith was not going to get significantly better as a senior and his stock was as high as it was going to be. Smith runs with tremendous vision. He does not have break away speed, but reads his blocks so well, he uses cutback lanes to get defenders out of position. He has the lower-body strength and power to get the tough yards in between the tackles. Smith does not have very much shiftiness in his game, but he does flash the ability to make a man miss and get extra yards. Smith was not used very much in the passing game and his receiving skills must improve. Smith's best years appear to be in front of him and he could be the type of player who just knows how to play the game effectively. When you are in the college football annals next to a guy like Barry Sanders, I think any questions about your ability to play have been answered. Smith will need to get bigger, and questions about his break-away ability will remain, but he can flat-out pound the ball. He will be a workhorse and it would not surprise me if he outperformed running backs taken ahead of him. It may be disappointing for college football purists that a guy who fell 61 yards short of the single season rushing record at a D-1 school would not be a first day pick, but realists will see he is a third round pick.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
NFL Draft Preview: Wide Receivers
Perhaps no position has seen more shake up than this year's wide receiver class. Malcolm Kelly headlined the '08 class as the top overall prospect, but injury issues and a poor workout has him dropping perhaps even into the second round. Devin Thomas has ridden to the top of this class, in a sense by default. Had DeSean Jackson measured a little bigger he likely would have been #1. Had Limas Sweed not missed the Senior Bowl due to his lingering wrist injury, he might also have been #1. All four of these players are likely first rounders and all could make impacts as rookies. However, none are top 10 talents and most of them belong in the bottom half of the first round. There may be no Calvin Johnson type talent here, but plenty of talent sprinkles this list with big red zone receivers, as well as speedy slot players who can give nickel corners fits. With so many teams in need of more play makers on offense, expect four or five receivers to be taken in the first round and as many as eight or nine could be taken on the first day.
1.) Devin Thomas 6-2 216 Michigan State
This one has been hard for me to go with. Thomas had just one solid season at State after transfering from Coffeyville Community College. He has size and strength to big a big-time receiver, plus the speed and explosion to make big plays with the ball in his hands. Even at 6-2 216, he can take a bubble screen 80 yards to the house. However, he does not run great routes and does not possess great technique. He will likely struggle against press coverage and does not do a great job blocking. At this point, the only thing putting him ahead of DeSean Jackson is size. Thomas may only be a hair under 6-2, but at 216, he is better equipped physically to deal with the punishment of an NFL season. Additionally, Thomas may have more upside long term, Jackson is more ready to make an impact in the NFL right now because of his ability to return. Thomas is at the head of a weak receiver class, however he has the physical tools to warrant a top 20 selection. He has the kind of explosion Donovan McNabb was looking for and with holes having already been filled on defense, Thomas would be an ideal fit with Philadelphia at 19. Rumors also say the Bills are willing to reach for Thomas at #11.
2.) DeSean Jackson 5-10 169 California
DeSean Jackson projects as a better receiver than Ted Ginn Jr last season and TGJ was a top 10 pick. Jackson is a more polished receiver as well as even more explosive in the return game. Every team could use a play maker like Jackson. He has great hands and will take hits going across the middle, although he has a tendency to drop easy ones worrying too much about what he will do after he makes the catch. To be fair, that is where Jackson makes his money. He has excellent body control and wiggle to get in position to catch and then make defenders miss. He can run any route you ask him to and does a good job getting separation with fluid hips. Jackson does not have great footwork and does not show great aggression while blocking. His return skills make up for the few blocks he may miss. You simply cannot kick or punt to him because he has serious, Devin Hester like stuff in returns, having returned 6 punts for touchdowns (Including 4 as a junior...as a senior most teams just didn't kick to him). I have been on Jackson's bandwagon all season long despite his struggle with injuries and his lack of ideal size. He is the most explosive player in this draft not named Darren McFadden and has return skills second to none in this year's class. He could inject some much needed life into Tampa Bay's passing attack, as well as give them explosion in the return game at #20 if Philly doesn't grab him at 19.
3.) Limas Sweed 6-4 215 Texas
The only reason Sweed finds himself here has been the strong workout of Devin Thomas and lingering injury concerns after Sweed lost most of his senior season to a wrist injury. Sweed has been a stand out at Texas and as a junior scored 12 times while averaging over 17 yards per play. The former Longhorn has explosive capabilities in the passing game despite his lack of top-end speed (Only runs in the 4.5's). However, his massive frame makes him a match-up nightmare for corners, particularly in the red zone. Sweed uses his body well to get in position and shows a particular knack for finding soft spots in zones, almost the way a tight end would in the middle of the field. He works extremely hard and is a smart, competitive player, displaying the kind of attitude you want from a #1 receiver. The biggest issue not relating to his injury is his lack of explosion in and out of cuts. Sweed may struggle to get separation against corners with great speed, but that is why his big frame and soft hands become so important because he can make the tough plays in traffic. With Jackson and Thomas off the board, plenty of teams will still be looking for a top receiver at the bottom of the first round. Vince Young desperately needs a true #1 and do not be surprised even if the Titans have Kelly rated higher if they take Sweed at # 24 to recapture of of VY's Longhorn magic.
4.) Malcolm Kelly 6-4 224 Oklahoma
When Kelly declared, he was considered the top wide out in a weak class. After being unable to perform in the combine due to a lingering leg injury, Kelly had a disappointing work out in Norman where he only ran in the high 4.6's in his 40. Scouts already had concerns about Kelly's ability to get separation in the NFL, something he did not do consistantly in college either. He has a tremendous ability to make catches in traffic, but part of that has been because he simply does not get the kind of separation you would like to see. Like Sweed, he uses his frame well to wall off defenders and has excellent hands. Kelly runs pretty good routes and has good feet. He will be a tough cover in the red zone. Kelly simply cannot stay healthy and that concerns a number of teams. You name it, it seems like Kelly has missed time because of it. Kelly's value had been driven through the roof, and unfairly so. He could have a great career as a possession receiver, but will never be the kind of explosive #1 the guys ahead of him could be. Some scouts have Kelly falling behind Hardy/Manningham here to #5 on the list, but I cannot justify moving down a player ranked #1 without a workout down to 5 just because he had a poor workout. Personnel evaluators will always look at the film first, and on film, Kelly is certainly a first round pick.
5.) James Hardy 6-5 217 Indiana
Of the big receivers in this draft, none of them have been as consistent as this former Hoosier. Hardy has been a starter since he came to Bloomington and has scored double digit touchdowns in each of his three seasons. As a junior, Hardy broke out with 1,125 yards and 16 touchdowns on 79 catches. He has outstanding size and can be physical across the middle. Hardy will not be bullied and can get off press coverage and release. Hardy is a long strider and has a tendency to round cuts. That lack of explosion in and out of cuts could make it difficult to get separation against quicker corners at the next level. That does not mean Hardy is not a threat after the catch. He has a second gear and is tough to bring down in the open field. Hardy was arrested on a domestic battery in 2005, but has reportedly matured significantly since then. With the fall of Malcolm Kelly and questions surrounding guys like Manningham, Hardy's stock has put him in that borderline first round range. Teams like Jacksonville and Dallas could both use the help at wide receiver, but if he fell out of the first, he probably would not get past the Chiefs at the top of round 2.
6.) Mario Manningham 6-0 181 Michigan
If you watched college football, you know how devastating Manningham can be. He was one of the premier play makers in the country in his three seasons at Ann Arbor, punctuated by his junior season with 1,174 yards and 12 touchdowns. Mario is an extremely fluid athlete, showing smooth, clean, route running. He has great hands and can makes catches everywhere on the field, including over the middle. However, he is not very physical and can struggle getting off the line against bigger corners, as well as blocking in the run game. And although he did not run a great 40 at the combine, he came back with mid 4.4 times at his pro day. Manningham has the kind of athleticism to fool corners and get separation despite not having explosive speed. May have some similarities to Greg Jennings and could be a dynamic play maker in the NFL. Some character issues and durability concerns remain and his lack of size and bulk probably precludes him from being a true top receiver, although it did not stop him from dominating a Big Ten loaded with talented corners. Manningham was once considered a first round prospect, however his stock has slipped due to inconsistency in pre-draft workouts. He has righted the ship to some degree, but will still likely slip into the second round. A team like the Jets who desperately want to add a dynamic dimension to their offense would gladly welcome Manningham's big-play ability at the top of the second round.
7.) Early Doucet 6-0 208 Louisiana State University
Doucet may not have blazing speed or great height, but he is the type of player coaches love. Doucet has solid natural athleticism and body control to make catches all over his body. Doucet always seems to know where the first down marker is and possesses great awareness on the field. He is very strong, although he will need to get better at beating press coverage. Scouts consider him a quick player rather than a fast one and his timed speed is average (upper 4.5 range in the 40). As a result, Doucet will not stretch the field, but can be a reliable target underneath. He flashes the ability to make plays after the catch and can be elusive in the open field. Doucet does not have much experience being a #1 wideout and benefited from playing with guys like Craig Davis and Dwayne Bowe. Some scouts love Doucet and others wonder how much upside he really has. To me, he looks like a potentially solid #2 receiver, but could also be tough in the slot as a #3. Doucet is another player who was considered to be a first round pick, but has dropped into the second round as a result of disappointing 40 times and workouts. Mike Martz and Mike Nolan fell in love with Doucet at the Senior Bowl and with WR a big need for the 49ers, Doucet could be their pick at the top of the second round.
8.) Lavelle Hawkins 5-11 187 California
Hawkins is one of the most natural pass catchers on this list. He has great quickness and agility and is smooth in and out of cuts. Despite his lack of size and strength, he uses his quick feet to beat press coverage and can get separation against a number of coverages. Even at his size, Hawkins shows a willingness to go across the middle and take the big hit. He may not have great timed speed (4.5 40's), but watching him, you can see just how explosive he can changing directions. He also has some upside as a return man with his elusiveness and agility. Hawkins was one of the most impressive players at the Senior Bowl showing he can get separation against some of the top corners in the country. Hawkins was overshadowed at times by his teammate Jackson at Cal, but has faired well in workouts and evaluations. Hawkins has a chance to be a killer from the slot and only adds to his value with return ability. His stock has risen over the last several weeks and he has played himself into mid-second round consideration. The Minnesota Vikings could use someone consistency at the receiver position and will likely consider Hawkins with their 2nd round pick.
9.) Andre Caldwell 6-0 204 Florida
Caldwell has been a tough prospect to figure out. He has sub 4.4 40 speed and soft hands, but lacks great height to be a red zone threat and lacks elusiveness to be a big run after catch receiver. Caldwell has soft hands and can find spots in the zone. May very well be a possession receiver who you can send vertically every now and then because of his excellent top end speed. However, at Florida, Caldwell was not a true vertical threat, certainly not the way a guy like Manningham or Jackson were. His nickname, "Bubba" does not relate in any way to his physicality as he will not overpower anyone, but shows the will to fight for balls in traffic. Caldwell was outstanding and productive at Florida, becoming their all-time leader in catches. However, Florida receivers have a history of underachieving in the NFL and while Caldwell does not project as a top-tier receiver, it may be difficult to project his role at the next level. Although Caldwell's stock has risen since leaving Florida, "Bubba" simply has not done enough to get himself into the first day. While he could sneak into the late second round, the top of the third seems considerably more likely.
10.) Eddie Royal 5-10 184 Virginia Tech
A case could be made for a player like Jordy Nelson from Kansas State or Jerome Simpson of Coastal Carolina and a number of scouts will actually have both Simpson and Nelson rated higher than Royal. However, I think Royal has more upside than both Nelson and Simpson. Royal has excellent explosion and speed running with sub 4.4 speed. In addition, Royal has great strength as he showed in his position best 24 reps of 225 at the combine. The former Hokie also makes up for his slight stature with a 36 inch vertical leap. On the field though Royal's athletic skills really shine through. He is a shifty runner who can make people miss. He has solid hands and can pluck the ball out of the air on the run. His experience on special teams playing "Beamer Ball" will only add to his value. Royal has never been to go-to guy, but likely will not have that burden in the NFL either. He has the size, speed, and elusiveness to be devastating out of the slot, and a huge boost on special teams. Royal is one of my favorite players in this draft, but he may not be for scouts. He could be a steal in the third round.
Other players to watch: Jordy Nelson Kansas State, Jerome Simpson Coastal Carolina, Earl Bennett Vanderbilt, Donnie Avery Houston, Dexter Jackson Appalachian State
1.) Devin Thomas 6-2 216 Michigan State
This one has been hard for me to go with. Thomas had just one solid season at State after transfering from Coffeyville Community College. He has size and strength to big a big-time receiver, plus the speed and explosion to make big plays with the ball in his hands. Even at 6-2 216, he can take a bubble screen 80 yards to the house. However, he does not run great routes and does not possess great technique. He will likely struggle against press coverage and does not do a great job blocking. At this point, the only thing putting him ahead of DeSean Jackson is size. Thomas may only be a hair under 6-2, but at 216, he is better equipped physically to deal with the punishment of an NFL season. Additionally, Thomas may have more upside long term, Jackson is more ready to make an impact in the NFL right now because of his ability to return. Thomas is at the head of a weak receiver class, however he has the physical tools to warrant a top 20 selection. He has the kind of explosion Donovan McNabb was looking for and with holes having already been filled on defense, Thomas would be an ideal fit with Philadelphia at 19. Rumors also say the Bills are willing to reach for Thomas at #11.
2.) DeSean Jackson 5-10 169 California
DeSean Jackson projects as a better receiver than Ted Ginn Jr last season and TGJ was a top 10 pick. Jackson is a more polished receiver as well as even more explosive in the return game. Every team could use a play maker like Jackson. He has great hands and will take hits going across the middle, although he has a tendency to drop easy ones worrying too much about what he will do after he makes the catch. To be fair, that is where Jackson makes his money. He has excellent body control and wiggle to get in position to catch and then make defenders miss. He can run any route you ask him to and does a good job getting separation with fluid hips. Jackson does not have great footwork and does not show great aggression while blocking. His return skills make up for the few blocks he may miss. You simply cannot kick or punt to him because he has serious, Devin Hester like stuff in returns, having returned 6 punts for touchdowns (Including 4 as a junior...as a senior most teams just didn't kick to him). I have been on Jackson's bandwagon all season long despite his struggle with injuries and his lack of ideal size. He is the most explosive player in this draft not named Darren McFadden and has return skills second to none in this year's class. He could inject some much needed life into Tampa Bay's passing attack, as well as give them explosion in the return game at #20 if Philly doesn't grab him at 19.
3.) Limas Sweed 6-4 215 Texas
The only reason Sweed finds himself here has been the strong workout of Devin Thomas and lingering injury concerns after Sweed lost most of his senior season to a wrist injury. Sweed has been a stand out at Texas and as a junior scored 12 times while averaging over 17 yards per play. The former Longhorn has explosive capabilities in the passing game despite his lack of top-end speed (Only runs in the 4.5's). However, his massive frame makes him a match-up nightmare for corners, particularly in the red zone. Sweed uses his body well to get in position and shows a particular knack for finding soft spots in zones, almost the way a tight end would in the middle of the field. He works extremely hard and is a smart, competitive player, displaying the kind of attitude you want from a #1 receiver. The biggest issue not relating to his injury is his lack of explosion in and out of cuts. Sweed may struggle to get separation against corners with great speed, but that is why his big frame and soft hands become so important because he can make the tough plays in traffic. With Jackson and Thomas off the board, plenty of teams will still be looking for a top receiver at the bottom of the first round. Vince Young desperately needs a true #1 and do not be surprised even if the Titans have Kelly rated higher if they take Sweed at # 24 to recapture of of VY's Longhorn magic.
4.) Malcolm Kelly 6-4 224 Oklahoma
When Kelly declared, he was considered the top wide out in a weak class. After being unable to perform in the combine due to a lingering leg injury, Kelly had a disappointing work out in Norman where he only ran in the high 4.6's in his 40. Scouts already had concerns about Kelly's ability to get separation in the NFL, something he did not do consistantly in college either. He has a tremendous ability to make catches in traffic, but part of that has been because he simply does not get the kind of separation you would like to see. Like Sweed, he uses his frame well to wall off defenders and has excellent hands. Kelly runs pretty good routes and has good feet. He will be a tough cover in the red zone. Kelly simply cannot stay healthy and that concerns a number of teams. You name it, it seems like Kelly has missed time because of it. Kelly's value had been driven through the roof, and unfairly so. He could have a great career as a possession receiver, but will never be the kind of explosive #1 the guys ahead of him could be. Some scouts have Kelly falling behind Hardy/Manningham here to #5 on the list, but I cannot justify moving down a player ranked #1 without a workout down to 5 just because he had a poor workout. Personnel evaluators will always look at the film first, and on film, Kelly is certainly a first round pick.
5.) James Hardy 6-5 217 Indiana
Of the big receivers in this draft, none of them have been as consistent as this former Hoosier. Hardy has been a starter since he came to Bloomington and has scored double digit touchdowns in each of his three seasons. As a junior, Hardy broke out with 1,125 yards and 16 touchdowns on 79 catches. He has outstanding size and can be physical across the middle. Hardy will not be bullied and can get off press coverage and release. Hardy is a long strider and has a tendency to round cuts. That lack of explosion in and out of cuts could make it difficult to get separation against quicker corners at the next level. That does not mean Hardy is not a threat after the catch. He has a second gear and is tough to bring down in the open field. Hardy was arrested on a domestic battery in 2005, but has reportedly matured significantly since then. With the fall of Malcolm Kelly and questions surrounding guys like Manningham, Hardy's stock has put him in that borderline first round range. Teams like Jacksonville and Dallas could both use the help at wide receiver, but if he fell out of the first, he probably would not get past the Chiefs at the top of round 2.
6.) Mario Manningham 6-0 181 Michigan
If you watched college football, you know how devastating Manningham can be. He was one of the premier play makers in the country in his three seasons at Ann Arbor, punctuated by his junior season with 1,174 yards and 12 touchdowns. Mario is an extremely fluid athlete, showing smooth, clean, route running. He has great hands and can makes catches everywhere on the field, including over the middle. However, he is not very physical and can struggle getting off the line against bigger corners, as well as blocking in the run game. And although he did not run a great 40 at the combine, he came back with mid 4.4 times at his pro day. Manningham has the kind of athleticism to fool corners and get separation despite not having explosive speed. May have some similarities to Greg Jennings and could be a dynamic play maker in the NFL. Some character issues and durability concerns remain and his lack of size and bulk probably precludes him from being a true top receiver, although it did not stop him from dominating a Big Ten loaded with talented corners. Manningham was once considered a first round prospect, however his stock has slipped due to inconsistency in pre-draft workouts. He has righted the ship to some degree, but will still likely slip into the second round. A team like the Jets who desperately want to add a dynamic dimension to their offense would gladly welcome Manningham's big-play ability at the top of the second round.
7.) Early Doucet 6-0 208 Louisiana State University
Doucet may not have blazing speed or great height, but he is the type of player coaches love. Doucet has solid natural athleticism and body control to make catches all over his body. Doucet always seems to know where the first down marker is and possesses great awareness on the field. He is very strong, although he will need to get better at beating press coverage. Scouts consider him a quick player rather than a fast one and his timed speed is average (upper 4.5 range in the 40). As a result, Doucet will not stretch the field, but can be a reliable target underneath. He flashes the ability to make plays after the catch and can be elusive in the open field. Doucet does not have much experience being a #1 wideout and benefited from playing with guys like Craig Davis and Dwayne Bowe. Some scouts love Doucet and others wonder how much upside he really has. To me, he looks like a potentially solid #2 receiver, but could also be tough in the slot as a #3. Doucet is another player who was considered to be a first round pick, but has dropped into the second round as a result of disappointing 40 times and workouts. Mike Martz and Mike Nolan fell in love with Doucet at the Senior Bowl and with WR a big need for the 49ers, Doucet could be their pick at the top of the second round.
8.) Lavelle Hawkins 5-11 187 California
Hawkins is one of the most natural pass catchers on this list. He has great quickness and agility and is smooth in and out of cuts. Despite his lack of size and strength, he uses his quick feet to beat press coverage and can get separation against a number of coverages. Even at his size, Hawkins shows a willingness to go across the middle and take the big hit. He may not have great timed speed (4.5 40's), but watching him, you can see just how explosive he can changing directions. He also has some upside as a return man with his elusiveness and agility. Hawkins was one of the most impressive players at the Senior Bowl showing he can get separation against some of the top corners in the country. Hawkins was overshadowed at times by his teammate Jackson at Cal, but has faired well in workouts and evaluations. Hawkins has a chance to be a killer from the slot and only adds to his value with return ability. His stock has risen over the last several weeks and he has played himself into mid-second round consideration. The Minnesota Vikings could use someone consistency at the receiver position and will likely consider Hawkins with their 2nd round pick.
9.) Andre Caldwell 6-0 204 Florida
Caldwell has been a tough prospect to figure out. He has sub 4.4 40 speed and soft hands, but lacks great height to be a red zone threat and lacks elusiveness to be a big run after catch receiver. Caldwell has soft hands and can find spots in the zone. May very well be a possession receiver who you can send vertically every now and then because of his excellent top end speed. However, at Florida, Caldwell was not a true vertical threat, certainly not the way a guy like Manningham or Jackson were. His nickname, "Bubba" does not relate in any way to his physicality as he will not overpower anyone, but shows the will to fight for balls in traffic. Caldwell was outstanding and productive at Florida, becoming their all-time leader in catches. However, Florida receivers have a history of underachieving in the NFL and while Caldwell does not project as a top-tier receiver, it may be difficult to project his role at the next level. Although Caldwell's stock has risen since leaving Florida, "Bubba" simply has not done enough to get himself into the first day. While he could sneak into the late second round, the top of the third seems considerably more likely.
10.) Eddie Royal 5-10 184 Virginia Tech
A case could be made for a player like Jordy Nelson from Kansas State or Jerome Simpson of Coastal Carolina and a number of scouts will actually have both Simpson and Nelson rated higher than Royal. However, I think Royal has more upside than both Nelson and Simpson. Royal has excellent explosion and speed running with sub 4.4 speed. In addition, Royal has great strength as he showed in his position best 24 reps of 225 at the combine. The former Hokie also makes up for his slight stature with a 36 inch vertical leap. On the field though Royal's athletic skills really shine through. He is a shifty runner who can make people miss. He has solid hands and can pluck the ball out of the air on the run. His experience on special teams playing "Beamer Ball" will only add to his value. Royal has never been to go-to guy, but likely will not have that burden in the NFL either. He has the size, speed, and elusiveness to be devastating out of the slot, and a huge boost on special teams. Royal is one of my favorite players in this draft, but he may not be for scouts. He could be a steal in the third round.
Other players to watch: Jordy Nelson Kansas State, Jerome Simpson Coastal Carolina, Earl Bennett Vanderbilt, Donnie Avery Houston, Dexter Jackson Appalachian State
Sunday, April 6, 2008
NFL Draft Preview: Quarterbacks
On the surface, this class may not have the big college names coming out like the 2004 class with Manning, Rivers, and Roethlisberger, however this group has considerably more depth into the second, third, and even fourth rounds than did that 2004 class. This list is dotted with over- hyped underachievers, as well as skyrocketing "overachievers". Players like Chad Henne never quite lived up to expectations at Michigan, while no one expected Matt Ryan to be a top 5 pick. In addition a guy like Brian Brohm has lost traction after being considered a top 10 pick. Now players like Henne and Flacco who have moved up boards following outstanding post-season games and workouts have the buzz. Do not be fooled though, Brohm is a hell of a player and will have tremendous value late in round 1 and has no business falling to round 2(Although the Dolphins will gladly take him). With teams constantly trying to find the next player to be the face of their franchise, expect more than a few to have interest in these stellar signal-callers.
1.) Matt Ryan 6-5 228 Boston College
Every time I watch Matt Ryan play, I find something else I like about his game. He is a big, strong QB who stands tall in the pocket and can deliver strikes. Ryan played with sub-par offensive talent at Boston College and still managed to throw for 4,507 yards and 31 touchdowns. The 19 interceptions as a senior may seem concerning, however with 654 attempts in 14 games that is a pick every 34 attempts. With very little to work with on offense in a new, pro-style scheme, I would say that is getting the job done. Ryan got the nickname "Matty Ice" for leading late game comebacks, having "ice in his veins." His presence and command of the offense makes him an effective play caller at the line and in late game/half situations. Ryan's arm will not blow you away and he does not have a ton of experience throwing deep, having been without a deep threat most of his career. However, he can make every throw necessary, something he showed with a near flawless throwing session at his private workout. Ryan has everything it takes to be a top-level signal caller in the NFL, however his grade by some may be inflated by the fact that he is the best player at the most important position in the game. He has the potential to be an excellent pro and could go as high as #3 to Atlanta and it would be unthinkable for him to slip past Baltimore at #8.
2.) Brian Brohm 6-3 230 Louisville
Brohm was considered the top quarterback returning to college football last August and would have been a surefire first round pick last year. Then, his Cardinals failed to leave up to National Championship expectations, particularly because of a horrendous defense. Brohm threw for 4,024 yards and 30 touchdowns on just 473 attempts (compared to similar numbers from Ryan who threw nearly 200 more passes). Brohm does not have a rocket arm but shows great touch and accuracy, boasting a 65.8% career completion percentage at Louisville. That is particularly impressive when you consider he played with 3 different offensive coordinators and adapted to each well. Part of that certainly comes from his stellar mechanics. Brohm uses his core to get torque and has a quick release. He has good feet, and showed surprising speed at the combine. Brohm also reads coverages well and shows good patience when given time. He does have a tendency to struggle with pressure in his face, something he will see early and often in his career. Brohm has some questions about his durability having suffered a torn ACL and thumb ligaments in 2005 and 2006 respectively. Brohm is top 15 talent, but questions about toughness and attitude have him as a late first round pick. Do not be surprised if a team like Carolina, Chicago, or Minnesota try and trade into the late first round with a team like the Cowboys to get Brohm.
3.) Chad Henne 6-3 230 Michigan
A four year starter at Michigan, Henne never really developed into the kind of player scouts expected. With the talent around him in Ann Arbor, Henne was touted as the next great star QB to put on the maize and blue. Instead, Henne suffered from inconsistency, mechanic deficiencies, and injuries. One game he would get happy feet and throw the ball everywhere except where receivers were, and then the next he would make it look easy, completing passes all over the field. However, in big games Henne seemed to bring it, at least when he was healthy. He threw for 373 yards and 3 touchdowns against Florida in the Capital One Bowl in his last game at Michigan, then showed off a strong arm in the pre-draft workouts. Henne has a big, strong frame and can stand in the pocket to take a hit, however durability concerns linger. He also struggles with pressure in his face and without great athleticism, he can be hurried into making bad throws. Henne does not have a cannon, but has great touch particularly on intermediate and deep throws when he has to place the ball over defenders. His stock has probably risen too much based on his actual production at Michigan and some analysts have been too quick to forget his in-game performance. Still, Henne is a top 50 player and expect Miami, Atlanta, K.C., and the Jets to all consider taking him at the top of the second round.
4.) Joe Flacco 6-6 236 Delaware
Flacco's name has been soaring up draft boards and some analysts actually believe he is the second best quarterback in the draft. After a tremendous combine workout, it would be easy to see why. Flacco showed off the strongest arm of any quarterback and also showed an ability to make throws on the move. He has good feet and the athleticism to make plays. Some of even compared him to Ben Roethlisberger, although Flacco probably is not as ready as Big Ben was coming out. Flacco has only two years of starting experience, having transfered from Pitt. Also, he worked out of a shotgun-heavy scheme and struggled with his drops and exchanges at the Senior Bowl, not to mention the fact that Delaware does not play against top-level competition. Flacco does not possess ideal mechanics, although his throwing motion is quick and he throws a catchable call. His feet can also be less than stellar, but he makes plays on the run and can throw from all over the field. The success of guys like Big Ben may have inflated Flacco's stock as scouts seem to be looking for the next great small-school quarterback. A team at the top of the second round will likely take Flacco in hopes that he is that player.
5.) Andre Woodson 6-4 229 Kentucky
I was not a huge Andre Woodson fan to start the season, and my concerns came to pass over the course of the season. Woodson's long throwing motion does give him excellent zip on his passes, but defenses are just too fast in the NFL and he will need to tweak that to some degree. He also showed he is not as athletic as originally thought. His feet get a little jumpy and he will leave the pocket to make throws but he does not have the speed to escape and make plays on the run. There are also some questions about his ability to read coverage as well as drop from under center, having played in a shotgun system at Kentucky. Some scouts consider Woodson as having the highest ceiling of any QB in this draft, and I happen to disagree. He has great touch and can win games for you in hostile environments. He saw great defenses in the SEC and was able to win consistently. With 40 touchdowns and just 11 int's as a senior, Woodson has proven he can produce, his readiness for the NFL remains a question. Woodson is still a top 60 talent, although the bottom of the second round does not have many teams looking for QB help. It would not surprise me if a team like Carolina traded up into the second round to grab him.
6.) John David Booty 6-2 218 USC
Accurate and very smart, Booty displayed the kind of football IQ capable of playing QB for one of the game's more prolific offensive attacks at USC. Booty followed former SC greats, Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart, and while he was never a Heisman finalist, Booty won games against the extremely tough Pac-10 schedule. Booty has nimble feet in his drops, although he will not move around very much to make plays. That can be a problem because he lacks ideal height, making it tougher to find throwing lanes. He does have a quick release and good accuracy on most throws, but does not throw a great deep ball. Booty may not be the biggest guy, or have the strongest arm, but he played with the best talent in the nation at USC and when he was healthy, he showed how productive he can be (see: the Rose Bowl against Illinois) He will never be a guy who slings the ball all over the field, but in a controlled, west-coast type offense Booty could really flourish. Expect him to come off the board in the early to mid third round.
7.) Joshua Johnson 6-3 213 San Diego
I hate to get caught up in statistics, but let me just throw a few numbers at you. 113 TD's to just 15 INT's, a career 65.9% completion percentage, NCAA's all-time passing efficiency leader at 176.7. That includes a senior year with 300 attempts, 42 touchdowns and just 1 interception. I'll repeat that: 300 attempts (205 completions) and just 1 interception. I don't care if he was playing in a D-1AA non-scholarship program, that would be tough to do playing a JV high school team. His coach at San Diego, former QB John Harbough, said that if there was a SAT for football that Johnson would demolish it. He possesses tremendously quick feet and an even quicker release. He has unparalleled mobility and ran sub 4.6 40's, but don't even think about calling him a running quarterback. He is a pass-first QB who can run, something they tried and failed to teach Michael Vick. He will have to get bigger and stronger to play in the NFL, as well as learn quickly to adjust to more complex schemes and systems on Sundays. The more I learned about Johnson and after watching him in post-season workouts, he has become one of my favorite players in this year's class. While his MVP performance at the East/West Shrine game garnered him some notoriety, he remains an under the radar prospect. Let me put it this way, if Johnson had done what Woodson did at Kentucky(Playing at an SEC school rather than at San Diego), he would be challenging Matt Ryan for the top QB spot and would be a top 15 pick. That means team in the mid to late third round could really have a gem.
8.) Colt Brennan 6-2 207 Hawaii
Unlike Johnson, Colt Brennan put up gaudy stats and has not impressed since leaving Hawaii. After the shellacking he took from that Georgia defense in the Sugar Bowl, Brennan has been struggling to do damage control on his falling draft stock. His Senior Bowl performance was good and he may have earned back some respect. Brennan has a rifle arm and knows how to find open receivers. At Hawaii, he was incredibly proficient and effective, setting the all-time touchdown pass record (He threw 58 as a junior while completing 72.6%). However, things will get tougher in the NFL with more drops, reads, and tougher defenses. Brennan is a smart kid and plenty of scouts believe he has the football mind to adapt to an NFL system. Teams certainly know all about June Jones' system and how it favors gaudy statistics from quarterbacks. Brennan's abysmal performance against Georgia to end the season brought up concerns about his ability to play against top-competition. But Brennan has a strong arm, and a quick release, to go with a solid work ethic and a mind for the game. He may not be the first day pick some thought he could be, but can still have value in the fourth round.
9.) Eric Ainge 6-5 225 Tennessee
Eric Ainge's time at Tennessee probably went faster than he would have liked. Just when he started to play consistently and win games, he had to graduate. As a senior, Ainge displayed the gutsy play and sound decision making Phi Fulmer expected when he brought Ainge to Knoxville. Ainge has the height and bulk to go along with a solid throwing motion. He has good accuracy and touch on short and intermediate throws, but does not have the power to throw strikes down the field, or drive deep balls. Also, Ainge will not win many footraces and lacks mobility in the pocket. Durability also concerns scouts as Ainge has battled a number of shoulder and hand issues throughout his career. While Ainge may not be Peyton Manning, he certainly is not Tee Martin either. Ainge has proven his toughness and competitive nature, willing to his team to victory even when injured. Perhaps his best quality is that he understands his limitations and will not try to be something he isn't. Ainge has everything you look for in an NFL QB, and if he can stay healthy, could be a starter on Sunday's. A team in the late fourth or early fifth round would love that to be the case.
10.) Dennis Dixon 6-3 195 Oregon
Dixon could be another one of the "system" QB's on this list who will not be expected to excel in the Pro's. He played in a spread offense out of the shotgun and even still has marginal footwork. On the other side, Dixon was an explosive play maker as a senior. Adjusting to a pro offense will be tough, but he has a fluid throwing motion and a quick release. Dixon has a stronger arm than he gets credit for and can make most of the throws. The biggest question may not be the system he played in, but rather his health. Dixon was a Heisman contender before losing his season to a knee-injury. Now teams will have to determine how serious that injury is before moving forward. Furthermore, Dixon was drafted in the fifth round by the Atlanta Braves and actually played last summer in the Braves organization. Dixon's status with teams will probably different greatly across the board, but if teams think he can stay healthy, Dixon has some upside. Given his propensity to make plays and while avoiding mistakes makes his efficiency intriguing. At the very least, Dixon should be a reliable back up and may have a similar career to Seneca Wallace, a former run and gun quarterback. His athleticism and upside will likely land him in the fifth round. The question is, will be play baseball or football??
1.) Matt Ryan 6-5 228 Boston College
Every time I watch Matt Ryan play, I find something else I like about his game. He is a big, strong QB who stands tall in the pocket and can deliver strikes. Ryan played with sub-par offensive talent at Boston College and still managed to throw for 4,507 yards and 31 touchdowns. The 19 interceptions as a senior may seem concerning, however with 654 attempts in 14 games that is a pick every 34 attempts. With very little to work with on offense in a new, pro-style scheme, I would say that is getting the job done. Ryan got the nickname "Matty Ice" for leading late game comebacks, having "ice in his veins." His presence and command of the offense makes him an effective play caller at the line and in late game/half situations. Ryan's arm will not blow you away and he does not have a ton of experience throwing deep, having been without a deep threat most of his career. However, he can make every throw necessary, something he showed with a near flawless throwing session at his private workout. Ryan has everything it takes to be a top-level signal caller in the NFL, however his grade by some may be inflated by the fact that he is the best player at the most important position in the game. He has the potential to be an excellent pro and could go as high as #3 to Atlanta and it would be unthinkable for him to slip past Baltimore at #8.
2.) Brian Brohm 6-3 230 Louisville
Brohm was considered the top quarterback returning to college football last August and would have been a surefire first round pick last year. Then, his Cardinals failed to leave up to National Championship expectations, particularly because of a horrendous defense. Brohm threw for 4,024 yards and 30 touchdowns on just 473 attempts (compared to similar numbers from Ryan who threw nearly 200 more passes). Brohm does not have a rocket arm but shows great touch and accuracy, boasting a 65.8% career completion percentage at Louisville. That is particularly impressive when you consider he played with 3 different offensive coordinators and adapted to each well. Part of that certainly comes from his stellar mechanics. Brohm uses his core to get torque and has a quick release. He has good feet, and showed surprising speed at the combine. Brohm also reads coverages well and shows good patience when given time. He does have a tendency to struggle with pressure in his face, something he will see early and often in his career. Brohm has some questions about his durability having suffered a torn ACL and thumb ligaments in 2005 and 2006 respectively. Brohm is top 15 talent, but questions about toughness and attitude have him as a late first round pick. Do not be surprised if a team like Carolina, Chicago, or Minnesota try and trade into the late first round with a team like the Cowboys to get Brohm.
3.) Chad Henne 6-3 230 Michigan
A four year starter at Michigan, Henne never really developed into the kind of player scouts expected. With the talent around him in Ann Arbor, Henne was touted as the next great star QB to put on the maize and blue. Instead, Henne suffered from inconsistency, mechanic deficiencies, and injuries. One game he would get happy feet and throw the ball everywhere except where receivers were, and then the next he would make it look easy, completing passes all over the field. However, in big games Henne seemed to bring it, at least when he was healthy. He threw for 373 yards and 3 touchdowns against Florida in the Capital One Bowl in his last game at Michigan, then showed off a strong arm in the pre-draft workouts. Henne has a big, strong frame and can stand in the pocket to take a hit, however durability concerns linger. He also struggles with pressure in his face and without great athleticism, he can be hurried into making bad throws. Henne does not have a cannon, but has great touch particularly on intermediate and deep throws when he has to place the ball over defenders. His stock has probably risen too much based on his actual production at Michigan and some analysts have been too quick to forget his in-game performance. Still, Henne is a top 50 player and expect Miami, Atlanta, K.C., and the Jets to all consider taking him at the top of the second round.
4.) Joe Flacco 6-6 236 Delaware
Flacco's name has been soaring up draft boards and some analysts actually believe he is the second best quarterback in the draft. After a tremendous combine workout, it would be easy to see why. Flacco showed off the strongest arm of any quarterback and also showed an ability to make throws on the move. He has good feet and the athleticism to make plays. Some of even compared him to Ben Roethlisberger, although Flacco probably is not as ready as Big Ben was coming out. Flacco has only two years of starting experience, having transfered from Pitt. Also, he worked out of a shotgun-heavy scheme and struggled with his drops and exchanges at the Senior Bowl, not to mention the fact that Delaware does not play against top-level competition. Flacco does not possess ideal mechanics, although his throwing motion is quick and he throws a catchable call. His feet can also be less than stellar, but he makes plays on the run and can throw from all over the field. The success of guys like Big Ben may have inflated Flacco's stock as scouts seem to be looking for the next great small-school quarterback. A team at the top of the second round will likely take Flacco in hopes that he is that player.
5.) Andre Woodson 6-4 229 Kentucky
I was not a huge Andre Woodson fan to start the season, and my concerns came to pass over the course of the season. Woodson's long throwing motion does give him excellent zip on his passes, but defenses are just too fast in the NFL and he will need to tweak that to some degree. He also showed he is not as athletic as originally thought. His feet get a little jumpy and he will leave the pocket to make throws but he does not have the speed to escape and make plays on the run. There are also some questions about his ability to read coverage as well as drop from under center, having played in a shotgun system at Kentucky. Some scouts consider Woodson as having the highest ceiling of any QB in this draft, and I happen to disagree. He has great touch and can win games for you in hostile environments. He saw great defenses in the SEC and was able to win consistently. With 40 touchdowns and just 11 int's as a senior, Woodson has proven he can produce, his readiness for the NFL remains a question. Woodson is still a top 60 talent, although the bottom of the second round does not have many teams looking for QB help. It would not surprise me if a team like Carolina traded up into the second round to grab him.
6.) John David Booty 6-2 218 USC
Accurate and very smart, Booty displayed the kind of football IQ capable of playing QB for one of the game's more prolific offensive attacks at USC. Booty followed former SC greats, Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart, and while he was never a Heisman finalist, Booty won games against the extremely tough Pac-10 schedule. Booty has nimble feet in his drops, although he will not move around very much to make plays. That can be a problem because he lacks ideal height, making it tougher to find throwing lanes. He does have a quick release and good accuracy on most throws, but does not throw a great deep ball. Booty may not be the biggest guy, or have the strongest arm, but he played with the best talent in the nation at USC and when he was healthy, he showed how productive he can be (see: the Rose Bowl against Illinois) He will never be a guy who slings the ball all over the field, but in a controlled, west-coast type offense Booty could really flourish. Expect him to come off the board in the early to mid third round.
7.) Joshua Johnson 6-3 213 San Diego
I hate to get caught up in statistics, but let me just throw a few numbers at you. 113 TD's to just 15 INT's, a career 65.9% completion percentage, NCAA's all-time passing efficiency leader at 176.7. That includes a senior year with 300 attempts, 42 touchdowns and just 1 interception. I'll repeat that: 300 attempts (205 completions) and just 1 interception. I don't care if he was playing in a D-1AA non-scholarship program, that would be tough to do playing a JV high school team. His coach at San Diego, former QB John Harbough, said that if there was a SAT for football that Johnson would demolish it. He possesses tremendously quick feet and an even quicker release. He has unparalleled mobility and ran sub 4.6 40's, but don't even think about calling him a running quarterback. He is a pass-first QB who can run, something they tried and failed to teach Michael Vick. He will have to get bigger and stronger to play in the NFL, as well as learn quickly to adjust to more complex schemes and systems on Sundays. The more I learned about Johnson and after watching him in post-season workouts, he has become one of my favorite players in this year's class. While his MVP performance at the East/West Shrine game garnered him some notoriety, he remains an under the radar prospect. Let me put it this way, if Johnson had done what Woodson did at Kentucky(Playing at an SEC school rather than at San Diego), he would be challenging Matt Ryan for the top QB spot and would be a top 15 pick. That means team in the mid to late third round could really have a gem.
8.) Colt Brennan 6-2 207 Hawaii
Unlike Johnson, Colt Brennan put up gaudy stats and has not impressed since leaving Hawaii. After the shellacking he took from that Georgia defense in the Sugar Bowl, Brennan has been struggling to do damage control on his falling draft stock. His Senior Bowl performance was good and he may have earned back some respect. Brennan has a rifle arm and knows how to find open receivers. At Hawaii, he was incredibly proficient and effective, setting the all-time touchdown pass record (He threw 58 as a junior while completing 72.6%). However, things will get tougher in the NFL with more drops, reads, and tougher defenses. Brennan is a smart kid and plenty of scouts believe he has the football mind to adapt to an NFL system. Teams certainly know all about June Jones' system and how it favors gaudy statistics from quarterbacks. Brennan's abysmal performance against Georgia to end the season brought up concerns about his ability to play against top-competition. But Brennan has a strong arm, and a quick release, to go with a solid work ethic and a mind for the game. He may not be the first day pick some thought he could be, but can still have value in the fourth round.
9.) Eric Ainge 6-5 225 Tennessee
Eric Ainge's time at Tennessee probably went faster than he would have liked. Just when he started to play consistently and win games, he had to graduate. As a senior, Ainge displayed the gutsy play and sound decision making Phi Fulmer expected when he brought Ainge to Knoxville. Ainge has the height and bulk to go along with a solid throwing motion. He has good accuracy and touch on short and intermediate throws, but does not have the power to throw strikes down the field, or drive deep balls. Also, Ainge will not win many footraces and lacks mobility in the pocket. Durability also concerns scouts as Ainge has battled a number of shoulder and hand issues throughout his career. While Ainge may not be Peyton Manning, he certainly is not Tee Martin either. Ainge has proven his toughness and competitive nature, willing to his team to victory even when injured. Perhaps his best quality is that he understands his limitations and will not try to be something he isn't. Ainge has everything you look for in an NFL QB, and if he can stay healthy, could be a starter on Sunday's. A team in the late fourth or early fifth round would love that to be the case.
10.) Dennis Dixon 6-3 195 Oregon
Dixon could be another one of the "system" QB's on this list who will not be expected to excel in the Pro's. He played in a spread offense out of the shotgun and even still has marginal footwork. On the other side, Dixon was an explosive play maker as a senior. Adjusting to a pro offense will be tough, but he has a fluid throwing motion and a quick release. Dixon has a stronger arm than he gets credit for and can make most of the throws. The biggest question may not be the system he played in, but rather his health. Dixon was a Heisman contender before losing his season to a knee-injury. Now teams will have to determine how serious that injury is before moving forward. Furthermore, Dixon was drafted in the fifth round by the Atlanta Braves and actually played last summer in the Braves organization. Dixon's status with teams will probably different greatly across the board, but if teams think he can stay healthy, Dixon has some upside. Given his propensity to make plays and while avoiding mistakes makes his efficiency intriguing. At the very least, Dixon should be a reliable back up and may have a similar career to Seneca Wallace, a former run and gun quarterback. His athleticism and upside will likely land him in the fifth round. The question is, will be play baseball or football??
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