Tom Brady may have been the MVP last season, but Adrian Peterson had one of the finest rookie seasons in the history of the league at any position. In a copy cast league, scouts are going to be looking for that impact rookie running back. With two-back systems becoming more popular and the short self life of NFL running backs, every team could use depth at running back. The Kansas City Chiefs seemed silly to draft Larry Johnson when they had Priest Holmes in his prime, but just a few years later they look like visionaries. Similarly, the Vikings drafted AP knowing they had Chester Taylor already. As a result, teams like the Falcons, Raiders, and Jets could all consider drafting Darren McFadden and another dozen teams could all be willing to take one of these running backs if they fall. Teams like Arizona, Chicago, Detroit, and Houston are the most likely to be looking running back in the top 20. And at least 3 running backs are worthy of top 20 consideration with another two potentially landing in round one. This class has great talent from top to bottom, considerably more than the 2007 class. As many as 10 running backs could be taken in the first three rounds.
1.) Darren McFadden 6-1 211 ArkansasExplosive. That really can be the only way to describe Darren McFadden. He has been one of the most dynamic players in college football since he got to Arkansas, even more so than Adrian Peterson at Oklahoma. However, that does not necessarily mean McFadden will have an AP type impact as a rookie. McFadden has more speed and quickness than Peterson, but McFadden can be a long strider and does not play the physical brand of football Peterson does. D-Mac possesses great vision and can even read out of the shotgun (Wild Hog) formation playing a quasi-quarterback formation. Speed is outstanding, but McFadden will not over power many defenders and must improve his blocking. McFadden could turn a franchise around, particularly if the character concerns are as far behind him as he would like teams to believe. While I worry about his high running style and long legs, his explosiveness and versatility make him the top talent in this draft and a sure fire top 5 pick. McFadden has essentially four potential destinations. 1.) He goes to Atlanta with third overall pick, however this seems the least likely (even if it makes sense for Atlanta). 2.)He falls to Oakland at #4, probably the most likely given Al Davis has fallen in love with D-Mac (even if this makes the least sense for Oakland). 3.) He falls to New York at #6, which is not as unrealistic as it could seem given McFadden is the most talented player in the draft. 4.) A team like New York or Team X ( I dunno Dallas?) trades into the top 5 to grab McFadden. Either way, he will not get past the Jets at pick six overall.
2.) Richard Mendenhall 5-11 225 IllinoisMcFadden has been compared to Adrian Peterson because of his potential impact in the NFL right away. However, Mendenhall's running style is much closer to that of AP's. Mendenhall runs with a forward lean and great balance. He drives his legs and can punish opponents. On the other hand, he does not have the kind of agility of a McFadden or some of the other players on this list. That does not mean Mendenhall is not explosive. This former Illini back runs a sub 4.5 40 and has a second gear in space to break big plays. Anyone who watched him against USC's dominant defense in the Rose Bowl knows how talented this kid is. Mendenhall also may be a better pass catcher than either McFadden or Peterson and has excellent versatility. Mendenhall has been climbing draft boards since August and his stock seems to have reached its apex. Mendenhall's combination of power and speed, plus his ability to make plays in the passing game out of the backfield gives him franchise back potential. Every team starting with Denver at #12 to Arizona at #16 would love to see him on the board when he pick. If Clady and Rivers are both off the board at #12 do not be surprised to see Denver jump all over this former Illini stud.
3.) Jonathan Stewart 5-10 235 OregonDennis Dixon received a tremendous amount of credit for bringing the Oregon football program back to prominence this past season. However, after Dixon went down, Stewart proved he was the best player on this team and one of the best in college football. Unfortunately, Stewart's stock had been soaring and then he had surgery on his toe. Stewart puncuated his season and career as a Duck with a 23 carry 253 yard rushing performance against a talented South Florida defense in the Sun Bowl. Stewart ran for 1,722 yards a junior and for a back his size, did it with outstanding balance and vision. He has quick feet and played in a scheme where he had to read his blockers and make cuts. He can change direction and get up to speed in a hurry, something that makes him particularly dangerous in the passing game taking screens out of the backfield. Despite his stocky frame, Stewart is not a power back, but he has the size and strength to prevent him from getting bullied. Stewart has been nicked up most of his career, but for a running back in a major conference it cannot be too big a concern, especially considering this guy's talent level. The toe remains a question mark at this point and Stewart has had his share of durability issues, mostly minor, nagging injuries all football players inevitably have. However, Stewart brings rare combination of power and speed. Some believe the injury issues have knocked him out of the first round, but that simply seems out of the question. If the Cardinals think he will be OK medically he could go as high as #16. Do not expect him to fall past San Diego at 27, he even reminds me of former Charger Michael Turner.
4.) Felix Jones 5-10 207 ArkansasRunning in the shadow of Darren McFadden, Jones finished his career at Arkansas with a yards per carry (7.6) second in NCCA history. The "other" Razorback runner also returned four kickoffs for touchdowns and has explosion in the return game. Jones' speed cannot be quantified in numbers, but he does run a sub 4.5 40. He can break away from defenders with a great first step and gets to the linebackers in a hurry. In the open field, Jones has the athleticism to make people miss with home run-type wiggle. Jones also has great hands out of the backfield and will have great third-down value for NFL teams. Jones has never carried the load on his own, but perhaps that benefits him. He is a change of pace back and with more and more two-back systems in the NFL, any team would love a guy with big-play capabilities who you can line up anywhere and he will help you in the run game or passing game. Jones represents one of the most versatile, if unproven, backs in this draft. While Jerry Jones may be in love with Darren McFadden, as an Arkansas man, he loves this former-Razorback with whom he shares his namesake as well. Jones' explosive play and return skills would make him a perfect compliment to bullish style of Marion Barber III. Whether it is pick 22 or 28 (His value seems better suited for 28, although Jerry may want him bad enough to ahead at 22), Jones seems like a shoo-in to put on a Cowboy cap come draft day.
5.) Chris Johnson 5-11 197 East CarolinaJohnson and Jones have very similar games and could have similar roles on the next level. If you thought Jones was fast, how about a 4.24 40 yard dash? That is serious speed and this guy plays as fast as he times. Johnson has experience as a running back, wide receiver, and a kick returner. As such, much like Jones, he could be lined up anywhere and defenses would have to respect his explosiveness. However, Johnson does not have great instincts for a running back and is not the cerebral player Jones is. Durability and strength are also an issue as Johnson's slight frame could be a concern with the bigger, more physical defenses in the NFL. Where he plays in a third down role, or becomes an every down player, Johnson will have to improve his blocking so he can be in on more passing plays. Can he be successful running the ball inside? He will certainly have to get stronger and more physical to pound the rock inside the tackles. Scouts differ on their opinion of Johnson as a first round talent, however he certainly has first round speed. His versatility and explosion make him a game-changer and a hot attraction for fans. A team could fall in love with him and draft him at the end of the first or bottom of the second round, but with the depth at the position, I expect he will go to the Bears or the Cardinals in round two.
6.) Jamaal Charles 5-11 200 TexasJamaal Charles will be the next in line of great Texas running backs to get to the NFL. Teams looking for a running back will have to hope his on the field production looks more like Ricky Williams than Cedric Benson (And hope his off-field life looks like neither). Either way, Charles would do well to ignore his Longhorn predecessors and try to pave his own path. Besides, Charles shares very few characteristics with Williams and Benson. Charles' game is predicated on speed and agility. He is capable of hitting a cutback lane and taking it to the house. Charles plays with balance and with his body underneath him. He has a strong upper body and if you do not take him on low, he has the strength to bull over defenders, particularly corners who tend try and drag and tackle. Charles also possesses adequate hands out of the backfield and will be a threat in the passing game. No one will accuse Charles of being a power bank and he will have to get stronger to be a pile-pushing back on short yardage plays. Durability is also a concern and he's only carried the full load for one season. Teams appear to have fallen for Ray Rice out of Rutgers, but before the combine I believed Jamaal Charles to be the fifth best back in this year's draft. Only Johnson's outstanding work outs have pushed him to fifth, and Charles runs with track speed also. For whatever reason, this former Longhorn has been flying under the radar. Do not be surprised if a team like Green Bay or New England makes sure he does not fall further than he ought to at the bottom of round two. (There have also been rumors that the Titans would love to see Charles reunited with VY)
7.) Ray Rice 5-8 199 RutgersProduction has never been an issue for this former Scarlett Knight. As a junior, Rice rushed for over 2,000 yards and found the end zone 24 times. He has been the focal point of the Rutgers offense for the past two seasons and even when teams knew he was getting the ball, they still could not stop him. Rice has a low center of gravity, playing with great toughness and power. He possesses excellent balance and vision. Rice will hit cutback lanes hards can accelerate quickly. He does not have breakaway speed, but runs in the 4.5 range and can still make big plays. Rice will not make many people miss and that kind of beating could wear on him, particularly with all the carries he has gotten already in his career. As I stated earlier, Rice's stock has been up despite his diminutive stature. He has a ton of miles on him already, but teams believe that shows his capability to carry an offense. I love Ray Rice, I have always loved watching him at Rutgers and I think he was a tremendous college back. I also believe he will get picked in the mid second round where so many teams are looking for running backs. Unfortunately, he will likely go ahead of Charles, which I believe to be a mistake.
8.) Steve Slaton 5-9 197 West VirginiaSlaton is the one underclassmen on this list who really could have benefitted from another year in college. The former Mountaineer was highly productive in college, but had a relatively disappointing 2007 season and people questioned his toughness and even his explosiveness. As an underclassman, Slaton showed the kind of big-play ability talent evaluators look for. He has great vision and understands lanes extremely well. Slaton's hands are excellent and he could even make a transition to receiver if teams feel like he cannot stand up to the beating of an NFL running back. Slaton has a great burst and can be extremely slippery in space. However, his blocking his suspect and Slaton never really proved he could run between the tackles. Players like Slaton drives coaches, scouts, and front-office people nuts. Slaton was one of the most explosive players in college football over the last three seasons and produced 55 total touchdowns in three seasons. However, he did not have the kind of dominant junior season many expected and even lost carries to true freshman Noel Devine (although, no shame there) His versatility give him great value as a third down back and returner, although he may never be a franchise back. He seems to have the talent, we just do not know what we're going to get. Once a first rounder, Slaton probably has dropped out of the second into the top of the third round.
9.) Matt Forte 6-1 217 TulaneForte represents the only true power back on this list. Forte runs low to the ground and drives his legs to churn out yards. He shows good patience and vision, making his reads and getting through the line without getting off balance. Forte was one of the hot topics of the Senior Bowl as scouts were anxious to see the nation's second leading rusher against top level talent. He proved he was a smart player who had the talent worthy of his gaudy statistics. On the other hand, Forte lacks the true home run ability of some of the other bigger backs in the draft like Mendenhall and Stewart. Forte did run sub 4.5 40's, but he does not have that second gear to put distance between himself and a defender (Like Mendenhall). It would not surprise me to see Forte's name ahead of Slaton's on a team's draft board. His stock has risen steadily since a strong Senior Bowl and it seemed like every team was watching him closely to see what kind of player he could be. His power and blocking skills make him valuable in any system, although teams looking for a big-play threat will want to look elsewhere. Even so, Forte will be a hot commodity come draft day and is a legitimate third round player.
10.) Kevin Smith 6-1 217 Central FloridaKevin Smith could have returned for his senior season, but after nearly breaking the single season rushing record, Smith was not going to get significantly better as a senior and his stock was as high as it was going to be. Smith runs with tremendous vision. He does not have break away speed, but reads his blocks so well, he uses cutback lanes to get defenders out of position. He has the lower-body strength and power to get the tough yards in between the tackles. Smith does not have very much shiftiness in his game, but he does flash the ability to make a man miss and get extra yards. Smith was not used very much in the passing game and his receiving skills must improve. Smith's best years appear to be in front of him and he could be the type of player who just knows how to play the game effectively. When you are in the college football annals next to a guy like Barry Sanders, I think any questions about your ability to play have been answered. Smith will need to get bigger, and questions about his break-away ability will remain, but he can flat-out pound the ball. He will be a workhorse and it would not surprise me if he outperformed running backs taken ahead of him. It may be disappointing for college football purists that a guy who fell 61 yards short of the single season rushing record at a D-1 school would not be a first day pick, but realists will see he is a third round pick.
