2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Carolina Panthers

The 2011 Carolina Panthers were, to a degree, the Green Bay Packers Lite. Carolina finished in the top 10 in every major statistical offensive category, but finished no better than 25th in any major defensive category.

Count me as one of the people who thought Cam wouldn't be ready for the NFL as a rookie starter. If nothing else, he proved that a small sample size shouldn't be judged too harshly either positively or negatively.

Newton has the look of a transcendent player, the kind of player you might make in Madden, but never would expect to see in real life.

The big question for Carolina is whether or not Newton can win in the NFL. In some ways, he's had the anti-Vince Young season.

For VY, it wasn't pretty, but the guy won seemingly every week. Cam has put up gaudy stats for a bad team, but the Panthers were in just about every game they played and frankly, most of the losses weren't his fault.

This defense was atrocious and some of the key contributors for this team, including Newton and head coach Ron Rivera, are still relatively green.

Even in free agency, of the five players Carolina signed, they had just 10 total starts between them last season and eight of them belonged to Mike Pollak, who played guard for the Colts.

Truly, one of the only major differences between the 2011 Panthers and the 2010 Panthers was Cam Newton, and it was good for a four win increase; and while the NFC South is one of the toughest conferences in football,  if Cam get better and the defense gets better, the Panthers could be in the mix in 2012.
 
Offense
Carolina changed their franchise in the draft last year. Obviously, that's much easier to do with the #1 overall pick and a guy like Cam Newton to take with that pick.


The Panthers are back inside the top 10, and could wind up with one of the elite talents if a team like Miami trades up to draft Ryan Tannehill. Unfortunately, there are 5 top-tier guys and none of those are likely to fall.

Even so, there are plenty of holes on this team to fill and getting an interior lineman or skill player on the edge could really benefit Cam and this offense.

The aforementioned Pollak was signed to mitigate the losses of Mackenzy Bernadeau and Travelle Wharton, although neither are even average players.

Signed Mike Tolbert from San Diego gives the Panthers a backfield, with Newton, that will give defensive players nightmares. Those are two of the hardest guys in the league to bring down on first contact.

Carolina has been working to extend Steve Smith, but outside of him and Greg Olsen, there is a serious drop-off in talent. Nabbing a receiver in the first few rounds of the draft and potentially adding one in the later stages of free agency seems like a must for this team.

Key Free Agents: Derek Anderson QB (re-signed w/ Panthers), Mackenzy Bernadeau G (signed w/ Coyboys), Omar Gaither OLB, Cletis Gordon, Legedu Naanee WR (signed w/ Dolphins), Geoff Schwartz G (signed w/ Vikings), Jeremy Shockey TE, Travelle Wharton G (signed w/ Bengals)

Defense
If Carolina can find any improvement on this side of the ball, the Panthers could start to really make strides. Signing Reggie Smith and Haruki Nakamura will add depth to this secondary, but neither will have a major impact on the defense.

Kenny Onatolu, signed from the Vikings, is probably more of a special teams and depth player.

That leaves big holes at essentially every level of this defense. Chris Gamble is a good corner, but outside of him, this is an extremely limited group.

The defensive line desperately needs some impact players. Charles Johnson is the only player who would even start on most other teams and while he's an excellent pass rusher, he desperately needs help.

Carolina could draft a player at any defensive position and it would make sense. Adding some beef inside by getting a tackle who can rush the passer, but also anchor inside, would relieve a lot of stress on Johnson and this limited secondary.

Getting a corner with some speed and even some return ability would really be a boost to both this defense and special teams. You can never have too many corners in a division with Drew Brees and Matt Ryan.

Key Free Agents: Antwan Applewhite DE (re-signed w/ Panthers), Dan Connor ILB (signed w/ Cowboys), DeMario Pressley DT, Jordan Senn OLB (re-signed w/ Panthers)

Draft Targets

Needs: CB,WR,S,LB, DL
Round 1 (Pick 9): Fletcher Cox DT Mississippi State (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 8)

From what I'm hearing, Cox isn't falling this far. It sounds like neither the Rams nor the Jaguars are in love with Justin Blackmon and if he's available, he'd be extremely hard to give up. On the other hand, it's hard to know what to believe now that we're full on into what is known as the "silly season." If Cox or Quinton Coples is here at this pick, either would make the most sense (assuming Blackmon doesn't fall). Cox was dominant, at times, in the SEC and is so athletic some scouts believe he might be better suited to play end due to his combination of power and quickness. Every time I watched him play, I liked him more and more. By the end of the season he was a first round pick, and after wowing scouts in workouts, he's a top 10 talent. He'd be a terrific addition to this struggling defense.

Round 2 (Pick 40): Brandon Boykin CB Georgia (Pos. Rank: 5, Overall Rank: 41)

To me, this pick comes down to two SEC players: Boykin and LSU wide receiver Rueben Randle. Both are outstanding athletes with speed and quickness to spare. Both are dynamic with the ball and possess terrific hands. Boykin is an undersized corner, whereas Rueben is 6'4" and reportedly ran sub 4.4 40's at his pro day. Boykin, though, plays a position of greater need and would be an asset in the return game. You get the feeling Cam Newton might be the kind of quarterback who can play with just about any group of receivers and he'll throw for 4,000 yards. Boykin would be a playmaker on a secondary without any, but Randle could be awfully hard to bypass.

Round 3 (Pick 73): Traded to Bears for Greg Olson

Overall

With just two picks in the first 100, the Panthers will be under even more pressure to get this draft right. A few missteps here and it could set Cam Newton back a year of his development. Luckily, both picks are in the top 50 and it seems like every year, a few first round talents slip to the top the second round where needy franchises gladly scoop them up. Boykin is a tier below the fringe first round groups, but some red flags could drop first round talents like Alshon Jeffery (who would be an ideal fit for this team, with ties to the area) and Janoris Jenkins right into the lap of the Panthers. Even if that doesn't happen, a player like Boykin has the ball skills and big-play ability to warrant a high pick, not to mention Fletcher Cox has Pro Bowl talent along the interior. The value (0) isn't terrific, but with just two players, both potentially starters, this would be an excellent draft for the Panthers.

Final Thought

There's no questioning this is Cam Newton's team, barring injury, for the next decade. You don't play at the level he played at, set the kinds of records he did as a rookie, without having big-time talent. If this defense improves at all, so too should the Panthers. Improving much on their 6-10 record could be an issue since they get the NFC East and a much improved AFC West, along with the Saints and Falcons twice. Getting to 8-8 or even 7-9 with this schedule should be considered outstanding. With so much talent in the NFC, it's hard to imagine the Panthers pushing their way into the playoffs, but if a they draft well and can get production from their rookies, the post season isn't out of the question. We'll start to find out this season if Cam Newton can be more than just Stats Superman and be a winner in the NFL.

2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Tennessee Titans

As far as NFL rosters go, the Tennessee Titans don't have the sexiest or flashiest group of players. Put it this way, you'd only play with them in Madden because Chris Johnson is much better in the game than he was in real life last season.

The contract disaster Johnson created last year certainly didn't help and he just never seemed to find his rhythm with this offense. 

Even so, Johnson is one of the most explosive players in the sport and if he can stay healthy, should be a 1,000 yard rusher again in 2012.

According to CBSSports, Kenny Britt, who is coming off an ACL tear, is already running and cutting. Britt, a potential stud wide receiver, could be a big-time difference maker assuming his mind is right along with his surgically-repaired knee.

Defense is where Tennessee faces the most uncertainty, having lost probably its two best players to free agency. That being said, there are some young, talented players in the front seven and this defense always plays physically and fundamentally sound.

Getting some depth at corner and along the defensive front should have the Titans in contention to again finish above .500 and potentially even fight for a wild card spot.
   
Offense
It's not clear yet who will be the opening day starter at quarterback for the Titans, although Matt Hasselbeck did play pretty well for Tennessee last season despite losing Britt.

When Jake Locker played, he too, played well and nearly beat the New Orleans Saints on a late drive. Locker will likely never be a high percentage thrower, but he had a quarterback rating of 99.4 in 66 attempts last season. He threw four touchdowns and no interceptions and could be the type of quarterback where you ask him to throw the ball 20 times a game, avoid interceptions and make just enough plays to win.

Tennessee signed Steve Hutchinson  from Minnesota to try and open up more lanes for Chris Johnson who struggled in part because the offensive line didn't play particularly well in 2011.

Getting better upfront as well as adding a weapon or two for whoever the quarterback is, should be the top offensive priorities this offseason.
 
Key Free Agents: Donnie Avery WR (signed w/ Colts)

Defense

Jason Jones and Cortland Finnegan were arguably the two  best players on the entire Titans team last season. Both have departed for the NFC West, Jones to the Seahawks and Finnegan to St. Louis.

The Titans signed Kamerion Wimbley from Oakland to replace Jones as a pass rusher, but getting to the quarterback has been an area of concern since Jevon Kearse left a number of years ago.

Jurrell Casey is a load inside, but adding a rusher, whether it's at tackle or end, could go a long way to protecting what will likely be a young secondary behind them.

Beefing up that secondary with the loss of Finnegan should be, if not the top priority, the second on that list. Finnegan is considered one of the elite players at his position in the game. Tennessee does still have Michael Griffin, who is another player on his way to becoming elite, but beyond that, there isn't much talent to speak of.

Finding a young player to put in that secondary will be a must in a division that will soon feature a host of young stud quarterbacks.

Key Free Agents: Jordan Babineaux (re-signed w/ Titans), Patrick Bailey OLB (re-signed w/ Titans), Cortland Finnegan (signed w/ Rams), William Hayes DE, Chris Hope S, Jason Jones DE (signed w/ Seahawks), Barrett Ruud MLB, Tim Shaw (re-signed w/ Titans), Anthony Smith S,

Draft Targets

Needs: WR,CB,DL,TE,OL
Round 1 (Pick 20): Fletcher Cox DT Mississippi State (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 16)

If Cox falls to this spot, the Titans would gladly scoop him up. Cox could play end or tackle in Tennessee's 4-3 defense and some scouts actually believe Cox is a better fit to play end. With a powerful lower body and excellent quickness, Cox is an athlete with a unique skill set who was dominating at times even in the talent-rich SEC. Put him anywhere on this Tennessee defense and it immediately becomes better thanks to his ability to penetrate . 


Round 2 (Pick 52): Mohamed Sanu WR Rutgers (Pos. Rank: 7, Overall Rank: 53)

Tennessee already has a big, physical receiver from Rutgers, but in this case, two is better than one. Sanu isn't as athletic as Britt and some scouts even thought he might have to play tight end in the NFL due his lack of straight-line speed. On the other hand, he ran in the 4.4's at his Rutgers pro day and you can't argue with his production. Sanu is the Big East's all-time leader in career receptions after tallying an astonishing 115 as a junior. This may actually be too low for Sanu who is said to be moving back up draft boards, but if he's here at 52, expect the Titans to pounce.

Round 3 (Pick 84): Matt McCants OT UAB (Pos. Rank: 8, Overall Rank: 85)

Hoping a corner like Iowa State's Leonard Johnson falls might be the best case for Tennessee here although they could choose to reach a little bit for Dwight Bentley if they're bent (no pun intended) on getting a corner with this pick. Unfortunately, the way it shakes out in this mock, the Titans don't have many options in terms of matching need and value with this pick. Offensive line, at least at tackle opposite Michael Roos, is a place Tennessee could look to improve. McCants is a small school prospect with BCS conference talent and could help down the road. At 6-7 300 pounds, McCants is build almost identically to top prospect Matt Khalil. McCants doesn't have Khalil's athleticism, but in terms of natural physical gifts, McCants has a solid base. 

Overall

If a few things break the right way, Tennessee could come out of April with one of the better drafts. Fox and Sanu are both potential starters as rookies (especially if Britt isn't ready for the start of he season). McCants is more of a project, but has enough upside to make it worth the risk in the third round. The value of this draft (+2) is solid and as a young team, the Titans are already a little ahead of schedule in terms of being a factor in the playoff race. Adding more young talent at need positions could push that progress forward.

Final Thought

Tennessee has the luxury of being in a position to win while they rebuild. The AFC South has one really good team and three teams putting together their identities. Unfortunately, they have the loaded NFC North on their schedule this year which means another 9-7 record may actually be a step up for the Titans, particularly if Jake Locker ends up starting the majority of their games. The development of Locker and the health of their team, particularly with Britt and Johnson, will determine how dangerous the Titans can be as teams push toward the postseason.