2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Jacksonville Jaguars

The 2011 Jacksonville Jaguars were a case study in the new NFL. Playing defense and running the ball is no longer the way to build a team.

Having a rookie quarterback who seemed overwhelmed by the moment doesn't help much either, but the Jaguars couldn't create big plays in the passing game and couldn't score enough points to win games, even though their defense finished in the top 10 in passing, rushing and total yards, plus 11th in points allowed.

Maurice Jones-Drew is the only player on this offense who defensive coordinators have to game plan for and Blaine Gabbert was dreadful most of the year. It's a credit to the defense that this team won as many games as it did.

It wouldn't be at all surprising to see this team back in the top 10 of next year's draft because there simply aren't enough pieces to make this team competitive in 2012.

The only thing that might save them is they play in a weak division with just one good team. Facing the Colts and the Titans twice a year could help get the Jags a few wins.

To be fair, the Jaguars did bring in some guys at the wide receiver position to fill in the voids, but the offensive line remains a disaster and it's hard to tell if Gabbert can play or not.

And despite the quality numbers, there are some holes on this defense, particularly at defensive end, that will have to be addressed with Andrew Luck coming to the division and the possible emergence of Lake Locker in Tennessee.

The new Jaguars owner, Shahid Khan may be looking to make a splash in the draft, which means we should expect to see high picks spent on some of the "sexy" positions. 


A good draft though, could really facilitate the development of Gabbert and allow the Jaguars to get a clearer picture of what they have in the former first round pick. 

Offense
Getting Laurent Robinson and Lee Evans in free agency was a good start. Both are average starters at worst and Evans, if he can stay healthy, has been one of the best deep threats in the league throughout his career.

Robinson broke out to some degree in Dallas last year with injuries in that Cowboys receiving core and has apparently been a target for Khan since before he owned the team.

Even with both Robinson and Evans on the roster, there are whispers that the Jaguars will draft Michael Floyd with the 7th pick in order to give Gabbert a legitimate #1 receiver.

Chad Henne was also brought in to back up Gabbert and provide some insurance in case Gabbert gets hurt.

Making some improvements along the offensive line could go a long way in making sure Gabbert stays on the field. Eugene Monroe was a first round pick and has been good for Jacksonville, but the rest of this line is a shambles.

Making that a target in the early rounds of the draft is a necessity for a team relying on the running game and a young quarterback to make the offense go.

Key Free Agents: David Garrard QB (signed w/ Dolphins), Kevin Haslam OT, Luke McCown QB, Kyle Miller TE (signed w/ Colts), Kassim Osgood WR, Mike Sims-Walker WR, Guy Whimper (re-signed w/ Jaguars), 

Defense
Jacksonville has one of the most underrated defenses in the league. They don't have big name players like the other marquee defenses in the AFC, but they play physical football and have a solid understanding of their scheme.

Aaron Ross  was signed from the Giants to add depth to the secondary, although Ross is no stud corner. The Jags will probably take a defensive back in the first few rounds of the draft to make up for the losses of a few key reserves in free agency.

Jacksonville's biggest deficiency defensively though, is at defensive end. The Jags haven't had an elite defense end since...maybe ever.

This draft is loaded with pass rushers and at #7, the Jags will likely have their pick of whomever they think is the best one. They could go end or tackle since Fletcher Cox, the top-rated tackle in many scout's minds, is the best pass-rushing tackle in the draft and could even play end.

Depth at linebacker is a concern as well, which means at least a late round pick to add depth and help on special teams seems likely.

Key Free Agents: Allen Russell OLB (re-signed w/ Jaguars), C.C. Brown DB, Leger Douzable DE (signed w/ Titans), Courtney Greene SS, David Jones CB, Dwight Lowery SS (re-signed w/ Jaguars), William MIddleton CB, Jeremy Mincey DE ( re-signed w/ Jaguars), C.J. Mosley DT (re-signed w/ Jaguars), Matt Roth DE, 

Draft Targets

Needs: WR,DE,OL,DB,RB
Round 1 (Pick 7): Quinton Coples DE North Carolina (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 7)

A lot of the media types have Melvin Ingram in this spot because they have Ingram ahead of Coples. For a 4-3 team, I don't think Ingram is a good fit to play end and Coples has the size and quickness to play end or tackle in a four-man front. Coples is one of the most physically gifted players in this entire draft, but the tape didn't always reflect that. Even so, he's one of the elite talents in this draft and could be used to supplement multiple positions for the Jaguars. A wide receiver like Malcolm Floyd is certainly not out of the question here, nor is a player like Fletcher Cox if he isn't snatched up by the Rams at 6. There has been recent talk about the Jaguars trading down to #11 or #12 to facilitate the Chiefs or Seahawks taking Ryan Tannehill ahead of the Dolphins at #8.

Round 2 (Pick 38): David Wilson RB Virginia Tech (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 36)

As talented as Maurice Jones-Drew is, in the NFL, you need two running backs. Wilson would be a great change of pace from MJD and has the kind of speed and quickness to be a big-play back in the NFL. Wilson doesn't have the physical style of Jones-Drew, but he runs with some elusiveness and does have the strength to break tackles. Wilson can also be an effective receiver out of the backfield on screens. If a receiver like Alshon Jeffery falls, he could be temping. Reaching (a tad) on Rueben Randle here would also make sense given the need at wide receiver. To me, Wilson has the best value and could be the future of this backfield. If they go with Floyd in the first, I think there will be some pass rushers like Andre Branch who could make sense here as well as a tackle like Mike Adams.

Round 3 (Pick 70): Zebrie Sanders OT Florida State (Pos. Rank: 8, Overall Rank: 73)

This pick makes sense not only because Sanders plays a position of need, but because he already has a built in fan base with ties to Florida, having played at Florida State. I know that's not part of the evaluation process, just saying that it's an added bonus. Sanders is a bit of a project, but has terrific athletic ability and quickness. He has good power for someone his size, but may struggle against bull rushes from powerful ends at the next level. His run blocking may be his best skill and his experience at both tackle spots means he brings versatility to the offensive line. Sanders has the potential to be a starter at right tackle right away for the Jags.

Overall

This isn't the sexy draft I promised, but sometimes that's the way things work out. Jacksonville does have a history of drafting to the beat of their drum (Tyson Alualu comes to mind), but I think the Jags probably feel good enough about their receivers to eschew reaching for one in the first round. Coples is a potential stud lineman and Wilson is a starting-caliber back with versatility to be effective in the passing game. Sanders could be a steal in the third round and may not last that long since some people have him with a first round grade. I think, to some degree, Sanders has gotten lost in the shuffle and I've had him in an out of the first round throughout the year. He's certainly talented enough to start for the Jags given where their offensive line is. The value in this draft isn't great (-1), but the impact from it could be.

Final Thought
I want to be on board with Jacksonville because I think Gabbert has potential and Maurice Jones-Drew is one of my favorite players to watch. Unfortunately, this offense isn't appreciably better than last year and I'm not sure how much better the draft can get them. That being said, this defense plays tough and will keep the Jaguars in games. If the offense can improve thanks to the additions at wide receiver (including one potentially from the draft), it may be good enough to pick up a few extra wins, but with a brutal schedule, having to see the NFC North and the AFC East, another 5-10 may actually be a step forward for the Jags. 

2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Tennessee Titans

As far as NFL rosters go, the Tennessee Titans don't have the sexiest or flashiest group of players. Put it this way, you'd only play with them in Madden because Chris Johnson is much better in the game than he was in real life last season.

The contract disaster Johnson created last year certainly didn't help and he just never seemed to find his rhythm with this offense. 

Even so, Johnson is one of the most explosive players in the sport and if he can stay healthy, should be a 1,000 yard rusher again in 2012.

According to CBSSports, Kenny Britt, who is coming off an ACL tear, is already running and cutting. Britt, a potential stud wide receiver, could be a big-time difference maker assuming his mind is right along with his surgically-repaired knee.

Defense is where Tennessee faces the most uncertainty, having lost probably its two best players to free agency. That being said, there are some young, talented players in the front seven and this defense always plays physically and fundamentally sound.

Getting some depth at corner and along the defensive front should have the Titans in contention to again finish above .500 and potentially even fight for a wild card spot.
   
Offense
It's not clear yet who will be the opening day starter at quarterback for the Titans, although Matt Hasselbeck did play pretty well for Tennessee last season despite losing Britt.

When Jake Locker played, he too, played well and nearly beat the New Orleans Saints on a late drive. Locker will likely never be a high percentage thrower, but he had a quarterback rating of 99.4 in 66 attempts last season. He threw four touchdowns and no interceptions and could be the type of quarterback where you ask him to throw the ball 20 times a game, avoid interceptions and make just enough plays to win.

Tennessee signed Steve Hutchinson  from Minnesota to try and open up more lanes for Chris Johnson who struggled in part because the offensive line didn't play particularly well in 2011.

Getting better upfront as well as adding a weapon or two for whoever the quarterback is, should be the top offensive priorities this offseason.
 
Key Free Agents: Donnie Avery WR (signed w/ Colts)

Defense

Jason Jones and Cortland Finnegan were arguably the two  best players on the entire Titans team last season. Both have departed for the NFC West, Jones to the Seahawks and Finnegan to St. Louis.

The Titans signed Kamerion Wimbley from Oakland to replace Jones as a pass rusher, but getting to the quarterback has been an area of concern since Jevon Kearse left a number of years ago.

Jurrell Casey is a load inside, but adding a rusher, whether it's at tackle or end, could go a long way to protecting what will likely be a young secondary behind them.

Beefing up that secondary with the loss of Finnegan should be, if not the top priority, the second on that list. Finnegan is considered one of the elite players at his position in the game. Tennessee does still have Michael Griffin, who is another player on his way to becoming elite, but beyond that, there isn't much talent to speak of.

Finding a young player to put in that secondary will be a must in a division that will soon feature a host of young stud quarterbacks.

Key Free Agents: Jordan Babineaux (re-signed w/ Titans), Patrick Bailey OLB (re-signed w/ Titans), Cortland Finnegan (signed w/ Rams), William Hayes DE, Chris Hope S, Jason Jones DE (signed w/ Seahawks), Barrett Ruud MLB, Tim Shaw (re-signed w/ Titans), Anthony Smith S,

Draft Targets

Needs: WR,CB,DL,TE,OL
Round 1 (Pick 20): Fletcher Cox DT Mississippi State (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 16)

If Cox falls to this spot, the Titans would gladly scoop him up. Cox could play end or tackle in Tennessee's 4-3 defense and some scouts actually believe Cox is a better fit to play end. With a powerful lower body and excellent quickness, Cox is an athlete with a unique skill set who was dominating at times even in the talent-rich SEC. Put him anywhere on this Tennessee defense and it immediately becomes better thanks to his ability to penetrate . 


Round 2 (Pick 52): Mohamed Sanu WR Rutgers (Pos. Rank: 7, Overall Rank: 53)

Tennessee already has a big, physical receiver from Rutgers, but in this case, two is better than one. Sanu isn't as athletic as Britt and some scouts even thought he might have to play tight end in the NFL due his lack of straight-line speed. On the other hand, he ran in the 4.4's at his Rutgers pro day and you can't argue with his production. Sanu is the Big East's all-time leader in career receptions after tallying an astonishing 115 as a junior. This may actually be too low for Sanu who is said to be moving back up draft boards, but if he's here at 52, expect the Titans to pounce.

Round 3 (Pick 84): Matt McCants OT UAB (Pos. Rank: 8, Overall Rank: 85)

Hoping a corner like Iowa State's Leonard Johnson falls might be the best case for Tennessee here although they could choose to reach a little bit for Dwight Bentley if they're bent (no pun intended) on getting a corner with this pick. Unfortunately, the way it shakes out in this mock, the Titans don't have many options in terms of matching need and value with this pick. Offensive line, at least at tackle opposite Michael Roos, is a place Tennessee could look to improve. McCants is a small school prospect with BCS conference talent and could help down the road. At 6-7 300 pounds, McCants is build almost identically to top prospect Matt Khalil. McCants doesn't have Khalil's athleticism, but in terms of natural physical gifts, McCants has a solid base. 

Overall

If a few things break the right way, Tennessee could come out of April with one of the better drafts. Fox and Sanu are both potential starters as rookies (especially if Britt isn't ready for the start of he season). McCants is more of a project, but has enough upside to make it worth the risk in the third round. The value of this draft (+2) is solid and as a young team, the Titans are already a little ahead of schedule in terms of being a factor in the playoff race. Adding more young talent at need positions could push that progress forward.

Final Thought

Tennessee has the luxury of being in a position to win while they rebuild. The AFC South has one really good team and three teams putting together their identities. Unfortunately, they have the loaded NFC North on their schedule this year which means another 9-7 record may actually be a step up for the Titans, particularly if Jake Locker ends up starting the majority of their games. The development of Locker and the health of their team, particularly with Britt and Johnson, will determine how dangerous the Titans can be as teams push toward the postseason.

2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus:Houston Texans

The Houston Texans have been a trendy playoff pick by the so-called experts for the last several years. With an explosive offense and a young defense, it was easy to see why so many thought this was a dangerous team.

2011 was the year they finally put it all together, thanks mostly to the help of an undrafted free agent and a coach who was run out of his last job.

Arian Foster, who slipped through the scouting cracks, is one of the most versatile players in football and leads the Texans' two-headed running back attack with Ben Tate.

But truly, the different between last year's team and any other Texan team was the defense, which finished in the top five in passing, rushing and total defense.

Wade Phillips, the sacrificial lamb in Dallas, turned around a pathetic defense and turned them into a championship level unit.

Adding Johnathan Joseph in free agency as well as J.J. Watt and Brooks Reed in the draft made this defense disruptive and dominating at times.

Even the loss of former #1 overall pick Mario Williams to injury was mitigated by the rise of third-year linebacker Connor Barwin, who played tight end in college.

General Manager Rick Smith doesn't get nearly enough credit for drafting and developing players as well as supplementing the team with free agents.
  
Offense
Houston has the best running game in football, the best wide receiver in football and a quarterback who, despite his talents, can't stay healthy.

Had Peyton Manning picked Houston, they'd become the favorite in the AFC without question. Even with a rookie 7th round pick last year, the Texans won a playoff game.

Matt Schaub is an above average quarterback, but can't stay on the field. Unfortunately, Andre Johnson has had similar problems staying healthy.

This is offense can still be effective because Foster and Tate are so good, but adding a receiver to compliment Johnson and a quarterback to groom are necessities for Houston.

Also, one of the more puzzling moves this offseason was the Texans cutting Eric Winston, one of the best right tackles in the game. Getting some help upfront will certainly be on the list of priorities for the draft.


Key Free Agents: Mike Brisiel G, Bryant Johnson WR, Chris Myers (re-signed w/ Texans), Neil Rackers K, Matt Turk P, Eric Winston OT (signed w/ Chiefs)  

Defense 

This defense was so good last season, Mario Williams season-ending injury didn't slow them down a bit. They have a powerful pair of outside linebackers and one of the best young defensive players in football in Watt.

Letting Williams walk in free agency would have been exceedingly disturbing if not for the dearth of young defensive talent.

Houston did trade Demeco Ryans to the Eagles in a somewhat surprising move, but apparently Ryans was not popular either with the coaches or the players. Getting a linebacker to shore up the middle should be on the list this offseason.

That list will also include an upgrade at safety and perhaps some added depth at corner despite the improvement in the pass defense last year.

Kareem Jackson played better than he showed as a rookie, but in a division with young, talented quarterbacks, loading up on corners is a smart move.

Key Free Agents: Jason Allen CB (signed w/ Bengals), Tim Dobbins ILB, Mario Williams DE/OLB (signed w/ Bills),

Draft Targets

Needs: S,WR,OL,DE,QB

Round 1 (Pick 26): Stephen Hill WR Georgia Tech (Pos. Rank 4, Overall Rank: 28)
Hill was miscast somewhat on a George Tech team built to run the ball. When Hill ran a 4.3 40 at the combine, scouts went back to look at the 6-4, 215 pound Hill burn corners deep repeatedly at Tech. Part of that obviously comes from a strong play action game, but with teams loading up to stop Foster and needing a double team on Johnson, Hill would have single coverage all game in this offense. Plus, he'd get to learn the position from the best in the business.

Round 2 (Pick 59): Zebrie Sanders OT Florida State (Pos. Rank: 6, Overall Rank: 61)

With Houston's surprising split with Winston, the Texan offensive line suddenly needs some help. Sanders is one of the high risk/high reward prospects in this draft with solid technique, excellent athleticism and high intangibles. His play simply didn't always measure up to his vast abilities. That being said, the Texans need the help and since Arian Foster could probably run through brick walls for 1,000 yards, Sanders can only help.


Round 3 (Pick 76 F/ Eagles): Brock Osweiler QB Arizona State (Pos. Rank: 6, Overall Rank: 80)
Don't be surprised at all to see Houston take a quarterback in the first three rounds. There are a couple of guys who are just a year or two away from starting and if Houston thinks it can contend right away, nabbing a Brandon Weeden in the second round isn't out of the question. If they're willing to be patient though, Osweiler could pay dividends. A massive kid with a big arm and outstanding athleticism for someone 6-7 (He originally committed to Gonzaga to play basketball), Osweiler has every  physical tool you could want. With a few years of seasoning and perhaps a few games of temporary fill-in work if Shaub gets hurt, he could be one of the steals of the draft.

Overall 

There are some reaches in this draft and the value (-8) isn't outstanding, but the upside is tremendous. All three could turn out to be solid starters and Osweiler, had he returned to school, may have been a first round pick in 2013. Moving up in the third round as part of the Demeco Ryans trade could give Houston the flexibility to grab a quarterback high, whether it's Osweiler or Foles, even Cousins if he falls. Expect some offensive help early in the draft and some defensive depth late.

Final Thought

Houston is the most balanced team in the AFC, boasting a terrific young offense and great young defense. Losing Mario Williams long-term could be a mistake, but Barwin and Reed were terrorizing off the edge last year with Watt and if the Texans can add a defensive back to the mix, that defense will be scary. If this team is healthy, they could win 12 or 13 games and have to be considered one of the favorites in the AFC after their taste of postseason success this past year.