Monday, March 26, 2012

2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus:Houston Texans

The Houston Texans have been a trendy playoff pick by the so-called experts for the last several years. With an explosive offense and a young defense, it was easy to see why so many thought this was a dangerous team.

2011 was the year they finally put it all together, thanks mostly to the help of an undrafted free agent and a coach who was run out of his last job.

Arian Foster, who slipped through the scouting cracks, is one of the most versatile players in football and leads the Texans' two-headed running back attack with Ben Tate.

But truly, the different between last year's team and any other Texan team was the defense, which finished in the top five in passing, rushing and total defense.

Wade Phillips, the sacrificial lamb in Dallas, turned around a pathetic defense and turned them into a championship level unit.

Adding Johnathan Joseph in free agency as well as J.J. Watt and Brooks Reed in the draft made this defense disruptive and dominating at times.

Even the loss of former #1 overall pick Mario Williams to injury was mitigated by the rise of third-year linebacker Connor Barwin, who played tight end in college.

General Manager Rick Smith doesn't get nearly enough credit for drafting and developing players as well as supplementing the team with free agents.
  
Offense
Houston has the best running game in football, the best wide receiver in football and a quarterback who, despite his talents, can't stay healthy.

Had Peyton Manning picked Houston, they'd become the favorite in the AFC without question. Even with a rookie 7th round pick last year, the Texans won a playoff game.

Matt Schaub is an above average quarterback, but can't stay on the field. Unfortunately, Andre Johnson has had similar problems staying healthy.

This is offense can still be effective because Foster and Tate are so good, but adding a receiver to compliment Johnson and a quarterback to groom are necessities for Houston.

Also, one of the more puzzling moves this offseason was the Texans cutting Eric Winston, one of the best right tackles in the game. Getting some help upfront will certainly be on the list of priorities for the draft.


Key Free Agents: Mike Brisiel G, Bryant Johnson WR, Chris Myers (re-signed w/ Texans), Neil Rackers K, Matt Turk P, Eric Winston OT (signed w/ Chiefs)  

Defense 
This defense was so good last season, Mario Williams season-ending injury didn't slow them down a bit. They have a powerful pair of outside linebackers and one of the best young defensive players in football in Watt.

Letting Williams walk in free agency would have been exceedingly disturbing if not for the dearth of young defensive talent.

Houston did trade Demeco Ryans to the Eagles in a somewhat surprising move, but apparently Ryans was not popular either with the coaches or the players. Getting a linebacker to shore up the middle should be on the list this offseason.

That list will also include an upgrade at safety and perhaps some added depth at corner despite the improvement in the pass defense last year.

Kareem Jackson played better than he showed as a rookie, but in a division with young, talented quarterbacks, loading up on corners is a smart move.

Key Free Agents: Jason Allen CB (signed w/ Bengals), Tim Dobbins ILB, Mario Williams DE/OLB (signed w/ Bills),

Draft Targets
Needs: S,WR,OL,DE,QB

Round 1 (Pick 26): Stephen Hill WR Georgia Tech (Pos. Rank 4, Overall Rank: 28)
Hill was miscast somewhat on a George Tech team built to run the ball. When Hill ran a 4.3 40 at the combine, scouts went back to look at the 6-4, 215 pound Hill burn corners deep repeatedly at Tech. Part of that obviously comes from a strong play action game, but with teams loading up to stop Foster and needing a double team on Johnson, Hill would have single coverage all game in this offense. Plus, he'd get to learn the position from the best in the business.

Round 2 (Pick 59): Zebrie Sanders OT Florida State (Pos. Rank: 6, Overall Rank: 61)
With Houston's surprising split with Winston, the Texan offensive line suddenly needs some help. Sanders is one of the high risk/high reward prospects in this draft with solid technique, excellent athleticism and high intangibles. His play simply didn't always measure up to his vast abilities. That being said, the Texans need the help and since Arian Foster could probably run through brick walls for 1,000 yards, Sanders can only help.


Round 3 (Pick 76 F/ Eagles): Brock Osweiler QB Arizona State (Pos. Rank: 6, Overall Rank: 80)
Don't be surprised at all to see Houston take a quarterback in the first three rounds. There are a couple of guys who are just a year or two away from starting and if Houston thinks it can contend right away, nabbing a Brandon Weeden in the second round isn't out of the question. If they're willing to be patient though, Osweiler could pay dividends. A massive kid with a big arm and outstanding athleticism for someone 6-7 (He originally committed to Gonzaga to play basketball), Osweiler has every  physical tool you could want. With a few years of seasoning and perhaps a few games of temporary fill-in work if Shaub gets hurt, he could be one of the steals of the draft.

Overall 
There are some reaches in this draft and the value (-8) isn't outstanding, but the upside is tremendous. All three could turn out to be solid starters and Osweiler, had he returned to school, may have been a first round pick in 2013. Moving up in the third round as part of the Demeco Ryans trade could give Houston the flexibility to grab a quarterback high, whether it's Osweiler or Foles, even Cousins if he falls. Expect some offensive help early in the draft and some defensive depth late.

Final Thought
Houston is the most balanced team in the AFC, boasting a terrific young offense and great young defense. Losing Mario Williams long-term could be a mistake, but Barwin and Reed were terrorizing off the edge last year with Watt and if the Texans can add a defensive back to the mix, that defense will be scary. If this team is healthy, they could win 12 or 13 games and have to be considered one of the favorites in the AFC after their taste of postseason success this past year.


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