Friday, March 23, 2012

2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Baltimore Ravens

Heading into every offseason, Baltimore fans seem to say the same thing: "We're a _____ away from the Super Bowl."

It's a team perpetually one piece away from reaching the mountain top. This year, Torrey Smith and Lee Evans were brought in fill in the blanks in Baltimore. Evans was a disappointment and Smith was explosive, albeit inconsistent.

Baltimore, much like the 49ers did against New York, actually outplayed New England for 98% of the AFC Championship game.

To me, I'm not sold on the Joe Flacco/Cam Cameron marriage because one doesn't seem to have a clue what the other is thinking.

The Raven's defense has slowly filled in pieces that it had lost over the last decade since it won a Super Bowl and if Ray Lewis and Ed Reed can stay healthy, this will once again be a terrorizing defense.

Offense
As a mentioned, this is one of the more puzzling offenses in football. They can blow teams away with their skill at times, as they did against Pittsburgh to start the season. Other times, they look lost and lethargic.

Ray Rice was a legitimate MVP candidate last year and with Adrian Peterson hurt, not to mention Chris Johnson struggling, Rice has a legitimate case as the best running back in football.

Unfortunately, the help around him isn't being utilized. That being said, there isn't a lack of talent. Torrey Smith demolished the Steelers last year deep and has that kind of Mike Wallace speed that even NFL teams struggle to match.

Anquan Boldin and a stable of receiving tight ends compliment that nicely, but Cameron and Flacco can never seem to find the right plays to take advantage.

On talent alone, this is a solid offense at the skill positions, but after losing Grubbs to free agency and potentially losing Gurode, the biggest holes are in the trenches.

Key Free Agents: Matt Birk C (re-signed w/ Ravens), Lee Evans WR, Ben Grubbs (signed w/ Saints), Andre Gurode G, 

Defense 
Terrell Suggs, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed all still play for Baltimore and until they show considerable slippage in their play, I'm not going to hop on the wagon of pundits decreeing the death of Baltimore's stifling defense.

Suggs was one of the most dominant pass rushers in football last year and has been his whole career. If Lewis and Reed stay healthy, this is a defense with playmakers at every level.

Rookie cornerback Jimmy Smith looks like the talent we saw at Colorado and with this veteran team, appears to be maturing.

Pernell McPhee's rise last season has already filled the void left by Corey Redding's departure, but depth at defensive line is a question. The Ravens could also use a linebacker to fill in for Jarrett Johnson who left for San Diego.

Suggs, while still a force, would certainly benefit from having a linebacker opposite to ease the double teams on his side of the formation.

Key Free Agents:Jarrett Johnson OLB (signed w/ Chargers), Jameel McClain ILB (re-signed w/ Ravens), Corey Redding DE (signed w/ Colts), Carey Williams, Tom Zbikowski S (signed w/ Colts)

Draft Targets
Needs: OL,OLB,DB,RB,WR

Round 1 (Pick 29): Peter Konz C Wisconsin (Pos. Rank 1, Overall Rank: 29)
Matt Birk was re-signed, but will turn 36 in July. The interior of this line is the biggest offensive question and Konz, with outstanding athleticism and football acumen, can probably slide to guard if need be. The former Wisconsin stand-out  will be an ideal fit for this offense which loves to slide its lineman to use with Ray Rice in the screen game. Someone like Jerel Worthy may make sense here if they don't think Konz can play guard.


Round 2 (Pick 60): Bruce Irvin OLB West Virginia (Pos. Rank: 5, Overall Rank: 57)
Irvin doesn't get things done the same way Suggs does, but is about as athletic an outside linebacker as you'll find to put in this 3-4 system and with terrific defensive lineman in front of him could be a terror. Irvin has 4.4 speed and can move like a safety, although his ability to cover is a question mark. Miscast as an end in college, Irvin is explosive off the edge and with Suggs' brute strength and push opposite him, Irvin would get plenty of 1-on-1 match-ups to exploit. 

Round 3 (Pick 91): Juron Criner WR Arizona (Pos. Rank: 12, Overall Rank: 86)
This is a bit of a luxury pick, but Baltimore could use a big-bodied receiver to make plays in the red zone. Boldin is a physical player, but not the kind of guy you can expect to throw it up to and have him make a play. Criner, at 6-4, is the kind of red zone threat the Ravens lack, although he also lacks the speed this offense doesn't have outside of Smith. If a slot receiver like Joe Adams is here at this point, he might make more sense.

Overall 
One of the keys to Baltimore's success over the last decade is their ability to draft well. All three of these picks have value, a luxury truly born out the Raven's flexibility. When you  have very few pressing needs to fill, you can basically cherry pick players who fall. The total value of these first three picks would be among the best in the draft (8+) and would give Baltimore the kind of talent influx that would have Ravens fans feeling confident about their need to fill in the blanks.

Final Thought
If Baltimore just stood pat this offseason, they'd probably still be a playoff team in 2012. On the other hand, some key pieces have already departed, with others potentially on their way out. A solid draft, as Baltimore usually has, will position the Ravens as favorites in the AFC North and Super Bowl contenders. If Torrey Smith in particular can make a jump next season, Baltimore has to be considered the cream of the AFC crop with the Patriots.

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