2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: New England Patriots

It wasn't always pretty for the Patriots, but, as they usually do under Bill Belichick, the Patriots kept winning games.

The singular abilities of Tom Brady and his devastating duo of tight ends were enough to make up for the historically putrid defense New England played..

As they seem to every year, New England has a glut of draft picks that they'll likely use to trade for more draft picks because Belichik hoards picks like he needs a TLC show.

This year though, the Pats face enormous turnover on their roster with at least three offensive starters hitting free agency and essentially the entire defensive front also winding up on the open market, there are more holes than normal to fill. 

Brady's brilliance should be enough to carry this team to another 10+ win season even with a bad defense and the turnover on this defense is actually a positive. Getting younger and more dynamic upfront will prevent Brady from having to win games by himself and luckily for the Pats, this year's draft is loaded with defensive lineman.
 

Offense

Tom Brady. Wes Welker. Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez. That's enough. It was enough last year and it'll be enough this year assuming the Patriots are satisfied with chucking it 40+ times a game. 

The offensive line didn't play as well last year as it had in years past, but having two tight ends allowed the Patriots to keep one in to block against some of the elite defenses. 

Adding a running back who can be a legitimate threat would certainly help this offense, as would a deep-threat at wide receiver. There has been talk that Mike Wallace could be in play for the Patriots and that they'd be willing to pay a heavy price to get him. 

Adding a speed receiver of Mike Wallace's caliber would make this offense look a lot like that '07 team that torched people...only better.
Key Free Agents: Deion Branch WR, BenJarvis Green-Ellis RB, Dan Koppen C, 

Defense 

Unlike on Patriot teams of the early 2000's, there isn't a single player on the defense where you can say, "This is one of the elite guys at his position."

Ty Law and Lawyer Milloy aren't walking through that door.

There just really isn't a blue-chip player on this defense and that was a big reason this team would up 31st against the pass last year.If not for a shoot-out in Week 17 for the Packers defense, this Patriots defense would have been the worst ever defending the pass.

Without a pass-rush or even enough bodies to suit up a full roster in the secondary, it's amazing New England was able to even stay in games.

Now, basically the entire defensive line outside of Vince Wilfork is headed for free agency and Wilfork is on the wrong side of 30 for a man his size. Getting more explosive upfront, bringing in players to rush the passer will help take pressure off of a weak secondary.

The Patriots have enough picks early ( five in the first 100 picks) to address both needs.
 
Key Free Agens:Shaun Ellis DE, Andre Carter DE, Mark Anderson DE, Gerard Warren DT,Gary Guyton LB, Tracy White LB,James Ihedigbo S

Draft Targets

Needs: DL,DB,OL,LB,WR,RB

Round 1 (Pick 27) F/New Orleans: Whitney Mercilus DE/OLB Illinois (Pos. Rank 3, Overall Rank: 25)
I think we should expect the Patriots to take the guy they have as the top-rated pass rusher left on the board here assuming there's value in the pick. Mercilus lead the nation in sacks last year at Illinois and showed at the combine he has more athletic tools than his tape might show. A 4-3 end who has plenty of room to grow is exactly what could jump-start this defense.

Round 1 (Pick 31): Jerel Worthy DT Michigan State  (Pos. Rank: 5, Overall Rank: 30)
Yikes. Jerel Worthy was one of the most dominant inside players in the nation the past two years and was once considered a top 15 pick. His motor runs a little hot and cold, but when he's locked in, he's a dominating force, as he showed against Wisconsin's outstanding offensive line this year. Worthy can clog the middle as well as penetrate, especially when he'll get a ton of 1-on-1 opportunities playing next to Wilfork.

Round 2 (Pick 48) F/ Oakland: Alfonzo Dennard CB Nebraska (Pos. Rank: 6, Overall Rank: 51)
Though it's a slight reach by value, I like this pick for the Patriots because it allows them to get a player who can play both corner and safety. Given that Dennard lacks elite speed, some teams see him as a safety, where the Patriots hardly had enough players to put 11 on the field. Dennard is physical and tough, but doesn't have great ball skills. With all of the specialty defensive packages teams use to stop creative offenses, Dennard could slide in as a nickel corner who specializes in covering elite tight ends, without giving up much defending the run.

Round 2 (Pick 63): George Iloka S Boise State (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 66)
Iloka is another player who has some hybrid skills. There were some questions about his athletic ability and some scouts thought he might be a linebacker in the NFL. When he ran the 40 in 4.66, he put to rest some of those doubts, but Iloka's niche at the next level will likely be as a box safety. He's played against some questionable talent, but he was a leader of a really underrated defense in Boise. His versatility and instincts would be a welcome addition to Bill Belichick's defense.
 

Round 3 (Pick 94): Shea McClellin OLB/DE Boise State (Pos. Rank: 10, Overall Rank: 90)

While I'm not sure if McClellin is an ideal fit for the Patriots since they switched back to a 4-3 defense, McClellin's pass rushing abilities are on an elite list in this draft. Whether he plays linebacker much like Von Miller in Denver, or they convert him to end, McClellin actually ran a faster 40 than his teammate Iloka, meaning he has the speed to play linebacker in the NFL if needed. The Patriots front seven is a mess and for someone with his athletic skills and relentless motor, Belichick would have no problem being creative with such a versatile player.


Overall 

Landing a deep threat receiver is the only thing this draft would lack for the Patriots. However, from a value standpoint, New England does come out net positive (1+) while addressing their most pressing needs defensively. I could certainly see the Pats being a team to trade up for one of the elite pass rushers like Courtney Upshaw or one of the elite corners like Janoris Jenkins or Dre Kirkpatrick. On the other hand, standing pat (no pun intended), allows New England to cherry-pick talent at the deep defensive line and defensive back positions.

Final Thought

Even if Peyton Manning doesn't wind up in Miami, the AFC East will likely be a dogfight this year. New England will be trying to incorporate a lot of new faces, particularly defensively while the cohesion on the other three teams will be much higher. On the other hand, Gronk and Hernandez are in their primes and Brady showed last year he's not over the hill, meaning the Patriots should once again be the favorite to come out of the AFC.