"Shut-down" corners have slowly started to become a thing of the past. Al Harris got dominated by Plaxico Burress in the NFC Championship game, and Champ Bailey was killed by rookie James Jones IN Denver. Even young talents like Antonio Cromartie and Marcus Trufant who boast gaudy interception numbers, cannot be labeled "shut-down" corners the way a guy like Deion Sanders or Aeneas Williams were in their primes. However, the New York Giants showed that a good defense can beat a great offense and getting the right players for your defense is crucial. In fact, while the Giants certailny do not have a "shut-down" corner, R.W. McQuarters had a playoff-high 3 interceptions this last post-season and he simply made big plays when his team needed them. With new contact rules helping receivers get clean releases, corners cannot hope to shut-down players, but rather contain them. Also, getting a player on the outside who can make players when the quarterback makes a mistake remains a crucial element to playing stellar defense in the NFL. The 2008 class has no top 5 prospect, but has great depth and talent from top to bottom. As many as five, even six corners could come off the board in the first round.
1.) Leodis McKelvin 5-11 190 Troy
McKelvin's stock has been steadily rising since the beginning of the 2007 season and after an impressive post-season, the former Troy Trojan sits atop a talented group of first round corners. His footwork makes him fluid in and out of cuts when mirroring receivers. However, he played a majority off-man coverage and will have to get better at pressing at the line of scrimmage. As a result, he may not be an ideal fit for schemes particularly cover-2 because his run support ability is somewhat limited. With a 4.38 40 time at the combine, McKelvin showed he could stay with faster receivers at the next level. Additionally, he possesses the hips to stay with receivers on double-moves and will rarely give up big plays. McKelvin was a dynamic player in the Sun Belt Conference as a returner with 8 return touchdowns in his career, including 3 as a senior. Oddly enough though, his ball-skills are not outstanding and he fights the ball at times. When he is able to make the catch, his return skills make him explosive and he could be a game-changer. While he may not be right for all teams, he has top 15 talent and could actually go to New England at #7 if they choose to stay there. It would be tough to envision him slipping past New Orleans or Buffalo at #10 and #11.
2.) Mike Jenkins 5-10 197 South Florida
Jenkins was widely considered the best corner prospect in the draft during his senior season. While his stock has fluctuated on some boards since then, I simply cannot justify him any lower than 2. Jenkins has a great frame and can be physical with receivers at the line. In coverage, Jenkins can do everything you want, opening his hips quickly and changing direction with explosion to break on routes. While he may not have elite ball skills, he has the athleticism to make tough catches in traffic and fight receivers for jump balls. His technique and footwork can be inconsistent, but he has elite speed and explosion to close on balls if he is out of position. Jenkins could also line up at safety, something he has done at South Florida and some scouts actually believe his true position may be free safety. Jenkins has really improved over his four years in Tampa, particularly in run support. Jenkins may have the best instinct of the corners at the top of the board. He could hold up in a cover 3 or man scheme, and has the body to get stronger and even play in a cover 2 scheme. Jenkins offers great versatility, although DRC's tremendous work-outs may push Jenkins down teams draft boards. He could go as high as #10 to New Orleans, or as low as #30 to Green Bay. In terms of talent, he belongs in the mid first round, possibly to Arizona at #16.
3.) Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie 6-1 188 Tennessee State
The cousin of Charger Antonio Cromartie, "DRC" has been racing up draft boards following arguably the most impressive off-season of any prospect. Even though he went to Tennessee State, he cannot be considered a sleeper anymore and has been rated as the best corner in the draft by some scouts. From an athletic stand-point, that assessment may not be off-base. DRC showed outstanding fluidity in coverage at the Senior Bowl despite his lanky frame, and that was against top-competition. Then he tested as one of the top athletes at the combine turning in low 4.3 40 times and a corner best 38.5 inch vertical leap and 6.74 3-cone time. He has the best ball skills of the top 3 corners, showing his soft hands with a pick in the Senior Bowl game. Further more, he had 18 pass break-ups and 8 picks his last two seasons as a Tiger. Playing at 188 pounds may have been enough in Division II, but he will have to get bigger and stronger so he will not be bullied by receivers at the next level who can go 220. Like Jenkins, DRC could be considered a safety by some teams, but showed the kind of potential at the Senior Bowl to hold up against top-level talent. Rodgers-Cromartie could be a top 15 pick, and could go ahead Mike Jenkins. Whoever is left between Jenkins and DRC, expect Arizona to make sure he does not fall any further.
4.) Aqib Talib 6-1 201 Kansas
Talib's stock has been all over the place since declaring early out of Kansas. He's been ranked anywhere in the top 10 by scouts and has even been #1 on some draft boards. Talib is everything you could ask for from a cornerback, with a long frame and outstanding instincts for the ball. He even spent some time at wide receiver at Kansas and can be dynamic with the ball in his hands. Talib has the strength and tenacity to accept the challenge of bigger, more physical receivers and his tremendous confidence gives him a short memory after getting beat. However, that can get him into trouble. Talib takes too many risks and as a result has a tendency to get beat by inferior receivers. His lack of top-flight recovery speed also makes his ill-timed gambles hurt even more. At Kansas, he was allowed to simply use his physical attributes to make big plays, something he did regularly. However, his feet or sloppy at times and he does not fill hard in the run game. Talib also does not show great explosiveness breaking on the ball, although he when he does get there in time, he almost always makes the play. Talib's stock has fallen somewhat since his outstanding performance in the Orange Bowl, but he has top 20 talent and teams like Tampa Bay and Washington will have considerable interest in this big-play corner in the first round.
5.) Brandon Flowers 5-10 189 Virginia Tech
Flowers has the same confidence and swagger of a player like Talib, but has significantly better discipline and technique. Flowers is solidly built, although a little short. He has fluid hips and shows explosion in and out of breaks. He may not have been playing receiver in VTech (like Talib did at Kansas) however Flowers does a great job of getting his hands on the football. He posted 18 pass break-ups in 2006 and had 5 picks in 2007. He ran a disappointing 40 time at the combine (4.58) but he plays considerably faster than he times and has enough discipline that he rarely gets beat deep. He does take some gambles and will get beat on double moves at times, but his instincts are excellent and he will also come up with momentum shifters. Flowers offers the most physicality of any player in the top 5 here and can really come up and fill hard in the run game. Flowers, had he timed better, would be a legitimate top 20 player and even with his lack of timed speed remains a top 40 player with a borderline first round grade. He would be a great fit in Green Bay with that physical man-to-man style of defense, but do not be surprised if a team like Dallas, San Diego or Jacksonville have serious interest in Flowers in the late first round.
6.) Tracy Porter 5-11 188 Indiana
Tracy Porter is a prospect on the rise and could still be undervalued. Porter possesses great speed and athleticism with smooth hips and tremendous agility in his backpedal. He will not get beaten very often, but if he is caught out of position, he has the recovery speed and burst to get back and make a play on the ball. Once he is in position to make the play, bet on him making it. Porter has excellent hands with 16 career interceptions, and when he has the ball look out because he can take it to the house anytime he touches it. Porter was a playmaker for Indiana in the secondary and in special teams, returning a punt for a touchdown as well. The biggest weakness in his game is his strength and tenacity. He does not do a great job of jamming receivers at the line and gives a large cushion, which can lead to easy catches in front. He also will not fill particularly hard in the run game. Even still, Porter has top 50 talent and will come off the board in the middle of the second round.
7.) Justin King 5-11 192 Penn State
King blew scouts away with a 4.31 at the combine, and his athleticism has him moving up draft boards, even into the first round in some cases. However, King and Porter share similar characteristics. King has great speed and quick feet. He has a burst, and is able to recover when out of position. However, King's hips can be stiff at times, something which could limit him on the next level in man coverage. He will fill in run support and has adequate tackling skills, but does not have outstanding strength and will likely have trouble wrapping up guys like Brandon Jacobs and Fred Taylor. That also means he will have to great stronger to match up with the TO's of the NFL in order to avoid being overpowered and walled off in coverage. His lack of strength will also be a problem fighting for the ball when it is in the air. He does not show the kind of tenacity and want for the ball, which can be a problem considering he does not have the strength to simply impose his will. Additionally, despite playing some receiver in Happy Valley, King does not have stellar ball skills and will not make nearly as many plays as he probably should. King's workouts are somewhat misleading, as his play was up and down at Penn State. King has enough upside to warrant second round consideration, perhaps by a team like Tenneesee, or Seattle in the 50's.
8.) Antoine Cason 6-0 190 Arizona
Cason looks like he would be an ideal NFL cornerback. He is tall and lean with long arms. However, his athleticism is somewhat limited compared to those ahead of him. He does not possess great hip fluidity and does not display a great burst in and out of cuts. Cason has adequate speed, but will struggle to mirror receivers and could get beat if asked to simply turn and run. He has good instincts and will come up hard to help in the run game. However, he does not display outstanding physicality, particularly for someone with his size. He will have to get stronger and perhaps develop the kind of nasty demeanor that makes a player like Al Harris or Champ Baily so good. Right now, Cason looks best suited for a zone heavy scheme, although will have to develop better press technique to play in a cover-2 system. Cason was widely considered the top returning corner in the country after the declarations for the 2007 draft were made. At this point, his stock remains widely varied among scouts. Some people believe he is a first round player, others think third round. It would seem difficult to believe he would fall out of the second round particularly with so many teams looking to add depth at corner.
9.) Patrick Lee 6-0 200 Auburn
Lee brings a particularly intriguing value at this point on the list. He is a tough, physical player who has the strength to re-route receivers and will not get overpowered. However, Lee also has quick feet and good speed to recover. He has some stiffness in his hips and probably belongs in a zone scheme, particularly a cover-2. Lee also tackles well, but right now lacks ideal instincts reading run and pass. That solidifies his potential as a cover-2 player. Lee was not a starter until his senior season, but with his size and strength, he was considerable upside as an NFL player.Addionally, the former Auburn Tiger has a unique luxury: he played on every special teams unit at Auburn and will likely be a gunner in the NFL right away while he has time to mature and get better as a cover corner. With some time, Lee could develop into one of the steals in this draft. He could go as early as the late second round, but will likely be one of the first picks in the third.
10.) Charles Godfrey 5-11 204 Iowa
Godfrey brings versatility and potential at this point in the draft. He moved from safety to corner in 2006 and has the size and strength to play either position at the next level. The former Iowa Hawkeye ran in the 4.4's at the combine, showcasing tremendous athleticism. He also has solid burst in and out of his cuts, although his footwork needs some polishing. Godfrey plays a tough, passionate game and will relish big hits in run support. Overall technique must improve if he wants to play corner in the NFL and his hips are still a little stiff for man schemes. Godfrey also brings special teams potential and was Iowa's 2005 Special Teams Player of the Year. His instincts at the corner position must also improve, but that should come with more experience at the position. Godfrey could play any defensive back spot in the NFL depending on what team decides to draft him. With his physical brand of football and special teams impact likely to be immediate, Godfrey looks like a early to mid third round prospect.
Other Players to watch: Chevis Jackson LSU, Terrell Thomas USC, Tyvon Branch Connecticut, Trae Willians South Florida, Jack Williams Kansas State
Saturday, March 29, 2008
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
NFL Draft Preview: Defensive Tackles
One elite tackle prospect per class would be an average year for the NFL Draft. Two would be extraordinary. The 2008 class has three first round caliber defensive tackle prospects, and two of those three are elite overall prospects, worthy of top 10 selections. This group possesses better talent at the top, as well as more depth into later rounds. We have not seen a defensive tackle taken inside the top 10 since 2003 when Dewayne Robertson went to the Jets #4 overall. Glenn Dorsey and Sedrick Ellis both figure to have better pro careers that Robertson, or at least the teams in need of tackles at the top of the board hope so. However, with moderate depth, teams at the end of the first round like Jacksonville and Tennessee could get good value if Kentwan Balmer falls. The same holds true as the draft continues. With so much talent at positions like wide receiver and corner, there could be quality tackles selected much lower than their talent would otherwise dictate. Teams willing to wait, could wind up with valuable contributors upfront.
1.) Glenn Dorsey 6-1 297 Louisiana State University
If not for the poor schematic fit and lingering injury issues, Glenn Dorsey would be getting more attention as a potential #1 overall pick. As a senior, Dorsey won the Outland Trophy, Bronko Nagurski Award,Lombardi Award, Lott Award and SEC Defensive Player of the Year while leading LSU to a National Championship. His play, coupled with his leadership even garnered him some national media consideration for the Heisman Trophy. Powerful and athletic, Dorsey was a terror for opposing offenses, spending most of his time eating up double teams and allowing his teammates to make plays. When opponents were not smart enough to double him, Dorsey regularly whipped offensive lineman using his explosive burst and quickness. With an array of pass-rush moves, Dorsey can get to the quarterback as well as ball carrier in the backfield, racking up 7 sacks and 12.5 tackles for loss as a senior. Dorsey has been compared to Warren Sapp with his combination of strength and agility. Dorsey's lack of ideal bulk may be a concern particularly with his history of leg injuries. Scouts wonder if he can hold up to an NFL pounding week in and week out against the behemoth lineman he will consistently face. Dorsey would have been a top 10 pick in the 2007 Draft had he declared. In 2008, he is a lock for the top 5 and could even go the Rams at #2. Falling past Oakland at #4 seems completely out of the question.
2.) Sedrick Ellis 6-1 309 University of Southern California
Dorsey was billed as the top tackle in the nation last season, but this former Trojan is not far behind. Ellis, like Dorsey, combines serious athletic ability with technique and power. Ellis can beat interior lineman with his initial burst, but also possesses superior hand placement and rip moves to disengage from blockers. He uses his long arms and quick reflexes to win inside. Once the ball is snapped, Ellis is relentless is pursuit and constantly works towards the ball. He has played nose tackle and the three-technique, giving him great versatility. As a senior Ellis recorded 8.5 sacks to go with 12.5 tackles for loss, in a conference loaded with lineman talent like C Mike Pollak and G Roy Shuening. In post-season workouts, Ellis was even more impressive. No one could block him at the Senior Bowl, even against the best players in the country. Some scouts may actually rank Ellis above Dorsey because of Dorsey's leg concerns. Ellis has had some injury problems of his own and missed time with ankle and knee injuries over his career. He reminds me of former Viking tackle John Randle in the way he can rush the passer from inside, and is one of the best pass-rushers in this draft. Kansas City loves this kid, and if Jake Long is gone they could take Ellis, even if Matt Ryan is still on the board. If they pass, the Ravens and Bengals would certainly make sure he does not fall out of the top 10.
3.) Kentwan Balmer 6-4 308 North Carolina
Despite Balmer's first round grade, the gap between #2 and #3 here cannot be understated. It is the first major drop-off in talent at the position, as Balmer projects as a late first round pick. That said, Balmer has the talent of players like Dorsey and Ellis, his effort simply has not translated into production. The former Tar Heel possesses a large frame and adequate bulk, with room to get even bigger and stronger. He will push the pocket and can really overpower offensive lineman with his strength and leverage, although he plays a bit high at times. Balmer uses his tremendous physical tools to beat his man, and if he matches his effort to his skills, he would be something special. The biggest concern lies when he does not beat his man initially. He has a tendency to give up on plays and not pursue with passion. In fact, until his senior year, Balmer was considered a talented underachiever. In 2007, the proverbial light went on and we saw the player we had hoped for. Scouts will have to determine whether they believe Balmer will stay motivated after "making it" to the NFL. Teams like Washington, Jacksonville, and Tennessee use him and he certainly would not make it past San Francisco at #30.
4.) Pat Sims 6-2 310 Auburn
Our first junior prospect on the list, Sims has excellent athletic talent and tools and may be the quickest player on this list. His first step gets him into the backfield in a hurry where he can be disruptive as a pass-rusher or run-stopper. For having only played two full years, Sims has developed a solid pass-rush game, using his hands to rip through and get to the quarterback as well as to shed blockers. With his strength and size, Sims could easily play in a number of schemes and systems, although he is best suited as a one gap tackle. At this point, Sims remains somewhat unpolished. He does not possess stellar instincts or awareness and can get lost. While Sims plays with passion and a mean streak, he has a tendency to lose his fundamentals when he is tired and scouts will have to determine whether or not he is mentally tough enough be coached effectively. Sims may not be a starter as a rookie, but with his upside, a team in the second round could get a player with disruptive potential down the road. A team like New Orleans or Baltimore could take Sims at the top of the second round.
5.) Trevor Laws 6-1 304 Notre Dame
Laws has developed a reputation as an overachiever. Regardless of how talented a player may be, for a defensive lineman to accumulate 112 tackles in a season, you have to have special ability. To be fair, Notre Dame did not have many players who could make a tackle, but Laws was one of the few play-makers and put up middle linebacker numbers from a 3-4 end spot. Laws does not have superior athletic talent, but is unrelenting in pursuit and possesses a great nose for the ball. The former Irish star gets off the ball quickly and can re-direct offensive lineman with superior balance. His spin move is extremely difficult to handle, even for tackles. Laws lacks the power to consistently fight through doubles and could be run on at the point of attack. He put to bed some of the "overachiever" tags with a strong performance at the Senior Bowl and the combine. A team like Miami, picking for the Chargers at the bottom of the second round could be an ideal fit and middle to late second round seems about right.
6.) Marcus Harrison 6-3 317 Arkansas
The tackle class falls off again at this spot. Harrison has the talent of a top 60 pick, but major concerns about health and character have him considerably lower on boards than his ability may warrant. Harrison put up one of the best 40 times of any of the top tackles and has good straight line speed and quickness. However, he does not have much of a polished pass-rush game. He relies on his physical tools to disrupt in the passing game and could use some coaching and technique work to develop a go-to pass-rush move. Harrison takes great angles in pursuit and has a high-intensity motor to track down plays from the backside. But the former Razorback has had his share of injury problems which has stunted his development to some degree. Harrison has had knee surgery to repair a torn ACL, and another to repair cartilage, as well as ankle issues. Also, while at Arkansas, Harrison was suspended after being arrested on felony drug charges and his character will be a major concern for teams as they go through the interview process. Harrison could sneak into the bottom of the second round to a team like Indianapolis, Dallas or Jacksonville, but could slide all the way into the top of the third which is where he belongs.
7.) Joseph "Red" Bryant 6-4 318 Texas A&M
Some of the other defensive tackles in this class have questions about size and bulk, but not Bryant. He uses his strength and size to occupy multiple blockers inside and can really clog the middle. While he may not have a diverse rush game, Bryant has the potential to develop into a bulldozing bull rusher. In order to do so, he will have to improve his hand placement and develop pass-rush moves. The numbers are not going to jump off the page, but Bryant was a permanent captain and leader of the Aggie defense. He also has a knack for getting his hands up and knocking down passes, as well as extra points. Durability is a concern after a 2006 ACL tear, but Bryant played his senior season and stayed relatively healthy. Bryant may never be a high-impact player along the front line, but his superlative experience and leadership, as well as his strength and size, will make him attractive to teams looking to sure up their run defense. Bryant still has some upside and projects as a mid third round pick
8.) Dre Moore 6-4 305 Maryland
At this point in the draft, many of the players remaining are projects. Marchondray, or "Dre", Moore has been hard to place for scouts. Physically, Moore has everything you could want from a dtackle, with solid burst and size that you just cannot learn. His numbers a senior, 63 tackles (8.5 for loss) and 6 sacks, make him seem like a solid prospect particularly in the ACC. Plus Moore has been impressive in workouts with sub 4.9 40's, flashing more athletic ability than the film would indicate. Moore plays too high too much, and must improve his leverage to be effective against bigger and better lineman on the next level. He has improved each year at Maryland and yet still remains extremely raw. His instincts are just OK and that leads him to play out of position at time. Regardless of speed, if you are not in the right place, it is difficult to make a play. The team who drafts this former Maryland Terrapin, will need to be patient and give Moore the kind of coaching he needs. Moore also must get stronger, particularly in his lower body to improve his anchor against the run. Moore could be very attractive to teams willing to wait out his development. He can penetrate and has the physical tools to be a difference-maker in the opposition's backfield. Expect Moore to go in the late third round to a team looking to add depth, rather than a starter, to their defensive front.
9.) Letroy Guion 6-3 303 Florida State
Guion could be another "project" player, who has outstanding upside. He probably should have gone back to Florida State for another year, but has flashed the ability to be explosive and could be highly disruptive on the next level with some steady improvement. Guion has glimmers of brilliance, then will disappear for extended stretches. As such, he has not had particularly strong numbers. On the other hand, Guion has a strong first step and can drive offensive lineman back with his initial burst. He has agility and lateral quickness to make plays down the line. Guion simply lacks great instincts at this point and does not always make the right reads. Despite some character concerns off the field, on the field Guion has the potential to give you everything you could ask for and plays hard every play until the whistle. With barely a year as a starter, Guion declared for the draft, which is particularly bizarre when you consider than it followed the academic integrity scandal which forced Guion and many of his teammates to miss their bowl game. However, Guion could really be a steal for a team at the bottom of the third or top of the fourth.
10.) Demario Pressley 6-3 301 North Carolina State
Pressley could be considered a project, but the term "underachiever" seems more appropriate. Pressly has the physical tools to be disruptive, something he has shown at times in the ACC. However, he disappears too often, taking himself out of plays with poor technique, or over aggressiveness. Pressly has a devastating first step and can get up the field in a blink, something that could make him a solid three technique on the next level. However, he sometimes can get out of position because he does not play under control within his own abilities. He is not going to anchor your run defense, but has adequate strength at the point. Maryland's hybrid system gives him some versatility as he is used to playing multiple positions. He has played with big time NFL talent like Mario Williams and yet never really produced despite the attention given to his teammates. Pressly has enough potential and upside to warrant consideration in the fourth round and he could go to just about any team with his ability to play multiple positions and schemes.
1.) Glenn Dorsey 6-1 297 Louisiana State University
If not for the poor schematic fit and lingering injury issues, Glenn Dorsey would be getting more attention as a potential #1 overall pick. As a senior, Dorsey won the Outland Trophy, Bronko Nagurski Award,Lombardi Award, Lott Award and SEC Defensive Player of the Year while leading LSU to a National Championship. His play, coupled with his leadership even garnered him some national media consideration for the Heisman Trophy. Powerful and athletic, Dorsey was a terror for opposing offenses, spending most of his time eating up double teams and allowing his teammates to make plays. When opponents were not smart enough to double him, Dorsey regularly whipped offensive lineman using his explosive burst and quickness. With an array of pass-rush moves, Dorsey can get to the quarterback as well as ball carrier in the backfield, racking up 7 sacks and 12.5 tackles for loss as a senior. Dorsey has been compared to Warren Sapp with his combination of strength and agility. Dorsey's lack of ideal bulk may be a concern particularly with his history of leg injuries. Scouts wonder if he can hold up to an NFL pounding week in and week out against the behemoth lineman he will consistently face. Dorsey would have been a top 10 pick in the 2007 Draft had he declared. In 2008, he is a lock for the top 5 and could even go the Rams at #2. Falling past Oakland at #4 seems completely out of the question.
2.) Sedrick Ellis 6-1 309 University of Southern California
Dorsey was billed as the top tackle in the nation last season, but this former Trojan is not far behind. Ellis, like Dorsey, combines serious athletic ability with technique and power. Ellis can beat interior lineman with his initial burst, but also possesses superior hand placement and rip moves to disengage from blockers. He uses his long arms and quick reflexes to win inside. Once the ball is snapped, Ellis is relentless is pursuit and constantly works towards the ball. He has played nose tackle and the three-technique, giving him great versatility. As a senior Ellis recorded 8.5 sacks to go with 12.5 tackles for loss, in a conference loaded with lineman talent like C Mike Pollak and G Roy Shuening. In post-season workouts, Ellis was even more impressive. No one could block him at the Senior Bowl, even against the best players in the country. Some scouts may actually rank Ellis above Dorsey because of Dorsey's leg concerns. Ellis has had some injury problems of his own and missed time with ankle and knee injuries over his career. He reminds me of former Viking tackle John Randle in the way he can rush the passer from inside, and is one of the best pass-rushers in this draft. Kansas City loves this kid, and if Jake Long is gone they could take Ellis, even if Matt Ryan is still on the board. If they pass, the Ravens and Bengals would certainly make sure he does not fall out of the top 10.
3.) Kentwan Balmer 6-4 308 North Carolina
Despite Balmer's first round grade, the gap between #2 and #3 here cannot be understated. It is the first major drop-off in talent at the position, as Balmer projects as a late first round pick. That said, Balmer has the talent of players like Dorsey and Ellis, his effort simply has not translated into production. The former Tar Heel possesses a large frame and adequate bulk, with room to get even bigger and stronger. He will push the pocket and can really overpower offensive lineman with his strength and leverage, although he plays a bit high at times. Balmer uses his tremendous physical tools to beat his man, and if he matches his effort to his skills, he would be something special. The biggest concern lies when he does not beat his man initially. He has a tendency to give up on plays and not pursue with passion. In fact, until his senior year, Balmer was considered a talented underachiever. In 2007, the proverbial light went on and we saw the player we had hoped for. Scouts will have to determine whether they believe Balmer will stay motivated after "making it" to the NFL. Teams like Washington, Jacksonville, and Tennessee use him and he certainly would not make it past San Francisco at #30.
4.) Pat Sims 6-2 310 Auburn
Our first junior prospect on the list, Sims has excellent athletic talent and tools and may be the quickest player on this list. His first step gets him into the backfield in a hurry where he can be disruptive as a pass-rusher or run-stopper. For having only played two full years, Sims has developed a solid pass-rush game, using his hands to rip through and get to the quarterback as well as to shed blockers. With his strength and size, Sims could easily play in a number of schemes and systems, although he is best suited as a one gap tackle. At this point, Sims remains somewhat unpolished. He does not possess stellar instincts or awareness and can get lost. While Sims plays with passion and a mean streak, he has a tendency to lose his fundamentals when he is tired and scouts will have to determine whether or not he is mentally tough enough be coached effectively. Sims may not be a starter as a rookie, but with his upside, a team in the second round could get a player with disruptive potential down the road. A team like New Orleans or Baltimore could take Sims at the top of the second round.
5.) Trevor Laws 6-1 304 Notre Dame
Laws has developed a reputation as an overachiever. Regardless of how talented a player may be, for a defensive lineman to accumulate 112 tackles in a season, you have to have special ability. To be fair, Notre Dame did not have many players who could make a tackle, but Laws was one of the few play-makers and put up middle linebacker numbers from a 3-4 end spot. Laws does not have superior athletic talent, but is unrelenting in pursuit and possesses a great nose for the ball. The former Irish star gets off the ball quickly and can re-direct offensive lineman with superior balance. His spin move is extremely difficult to handle, even for tackles. Laws lacks the power to consistently fight through doubles and could be run on at the point of attack. He put to bed some of the "overachiever" tags with a strong performance at the Senior Bowl and the combine. A team like Miami, picking for the Chargers at the bottom of the second round could be an ideal fit and middle to late second round seems about right.
6.) Marcus Harrison 6-3 317 Arkansas
The tackle class falls off again at this spot. Harrison has the talent of a top 60 pick, but major concerns about health and character have him considerably lower on boards than his ability may warrant. Harrison put up one of the best 40 times of any of the top tackles and has good straight line speed and quickness. However, he does not have much of a polished pass-rush game. He relies on his physical tools to disrupt in the passing game and could use some coaching and technique work to develop a go-to pass-rush move. Harrison takes great angles in pursuit and has a high-intensity motor to track down plays from the backside. But the former Razorback has had his share of injury problems which has stunted his development to some degree. Harrison has had knee surgery to repair a torn ACL, and another to repair cartilage, as well as ankle issues. Also, while at Arkansas, Harrison was suspended after being arrested on felony drug charges and his character will be a major concern for teams as they go through the interview process. Harrison could sneak into the bottom of the second round to a team like Indianapolis, Dallas or Jacksonville, but could slide all the way into the top of the third which is where he belongs.
7.) Joseph "Red" Bryant 6-4 318 Texas A&M
Some of the other defensive tackles in this class have questions about size and bulk, but not Bryant. He uses his strength and size to occupy multiple blockers inside and can really clog the middle. While he may not have a diverse rush game, Bryant has the potential to develop into a bulldozing bull rusher. In order to do so, he will have to improve his hand placement and develop pass-rush moves. The numbers are not going to jump off the page, but Bryant was a permanent captain and leader of the Aggie defense. He also has a knack for getting his hands up and knocking down passes, as well as extra points. Durability is a concern after a 2006 ACL tear, but Bryant played his senior season and stayed relatively healthy. Bryant may never be a high-impact player along the front line, but his superlative experience and leadership, as well as his strength and size, will make him attractive to teams looking to sure up their run defense. Bryant still has some upside and projects as a mid third round pick
8.) Dre Moore 6-4 305 Maryland
At this point in the draft, many of the players remaining are projects. Marchondray, or "Dre", Moore has been hard to place for scouts. Physically, Moore has everything you could want from a dtackle, with solid burst and size that you just cannot learn. His numbers a senior, 63 tackles (8.5 for loss) and 6 sacks, make him seem like a solid prospect particularly in the ACC. Plus Moore has been impressive in workouts with sub 4.9 40's, flashing more athletic ability than the film would indicate. Moore plays too high too much, and must improve his leverage to be effective against bigger and better lineman on the next level. He has improved each year at Maryland and yet still remains extremely raw. His instincts are just OK and that leads him to play out of position at time. Regardless of speed, if you are not in the right place, it is difficult to make a play. The team who drafts this former Maryland Terrapin, will need to be patient and give Moore the kind of coaching he needs. Moore also must get stronger, particularly in his lower body to improve his anchor against the run. Moore could be very attractive to teams willing to wait out his development. He can penetrate and has the physical tools to be a difference-maker in the opposition's backfield. Expect Moore to go in the late third round to a team looking to add depth, rather than a starter, to their defensive front.
9.) Letroy Guion 6-3 303 Florida State
Guion could be another "project" player, who has outstanding upside. He probably should have gone back to Florida State for another year, but has flashed the ability to be explosive and could be highly disruptive on the next level with some steady improvement. Guion has glimmers of brilliance, then will disappear for extended stretches. As such, he has not had particularly strong numbers. On the other hand, Guion has a strong first step and can drive offensive lineman back with his initial burst. He has agility and lateral quickness to make plays down the line. Guion simply lacks great instincts at this point and does not always make the right reads. Despite some character concerns off the field, on the field Guion has the potential to give you everything you could ask for and plays hard every play until the whistle. With barely a year as a starter, Guion declared for the draft, which is particularly bizarre when you consider than it followed the academic integrity scandal which forced Guion and many of his teammates to miss their bowl game. However, Guion could really be a steal for a team at the bottom of the third or top of the fourth.
10.) Demario Pressley 6-3 301 North Carolina State
Pressley could be considered a project, but the term "underachiever" seems more appropriate. Pressly has the physical tools to be disruptive, something he has shown at times in the ACC. However, he disappears too often, taking himself out of plays with poor technique, or over aggressiveness. Pressly has a devastating first step and can get up the field in a blink, something that could make him a solid three technique on the next level. However, he sometimes can get out of position because he does not play under control within his own abilities. He is not going to anchor your run defense, but has adequate strength at the point. Maryland's hybrid system gives him some versatility as he is used to playing multiple positions. He has played with big time NFL talent like Mario Williams and yet never really produced despite the attention given to his teammates. Pressly has enough potential and upside to warrant consideration in the fourth round and he could go to just about any team with his ability to play multiple positions and schemes.
Saturday, March 22, 2008
NFL Draft Preview: Defensive Ends
The best teams in the NFL have them, and every team wants them: guys who can put pressure on the quarterback. If you look at the teams who made the playoffs last season, all of them, with the exception of perhaps Jacksonville, have at least one player who opposing offenses have to account for in the passing game because of his ability to get after the quarterback. The 2008 draft class has a number of guys who will be able to come in right away and contribute, including at least 4 or 5 first round picks. The group is deep and extremely talented, and the #1 overall pick may very well come from this group. Also, in all likelihood, the defensive rookie of the year with be one of these players. With outstanding talent at the top, and depth through the bottom, teams in the third and fourth rounds could still be drafting eventual rookie starters.
1.) Chris Long 6-3 272 Virginia
While Glenn Dorsey got most of the press for defensive linemen during the college football season, ACC teams saw the most disruptive defensive player in the country week in and week out. Part of that was because Dorsey battled injuries much of the season, but you cannot understate the kind of impact Chris Long had for the Cavaliers. Long recorded 14 sacks and 19 tackles behind the line of scrimmage. His motor never stops as he works toward the ball carrier. Long jolts offensive lineman, driving them back and then can use his strength and leverage to drive opposing tackles on their heels. While there have been questions about his athleticism, he put in one of the most impressive work outs at the combine running a 4.75 40, had a 34 inch vertical jump, and a defensive line best 4.21 20 yard shuttle. Long may not have elite speed overall, but his 10 yard split in the 40 was excellent, showing the kind of burst evident when you watch him play. His knack for disengaging from linemen prevents him being being held, something that will be critical when he matches up against the massive offensive tackles in the NFL. The Miami Dolphins reportedly have sincere interest in drafting Chris Long #1 overall, but if they does not, there is no way he slips out of the top 5.
2.) Vernon Gholston 6-3 266 Ohio State
To give you an idea of the kind of talent this kid has, Gholston dominated #1 OL Jake Long against Michigan, getting to the quarterback 3 times and recording another tackle behind the line. Furthermore, Gholston ran a 4.6 40, a combine best 37 reps of 225, and a defensive lineman best 35.5 inch vertical jump. Rumors has it, Miami will consider taking Gholston #1 overall to add this special edge rusher. Gholston has the physical tools (not to mention a body-builder physique) to be the best defensive player to come out of this year's draft, and has a legitimate chance to be the best overall player from '08 when his career is over. Gholston utilizes his strength and superior quickness to beat offensive lineman in a plethora of ways. He has good hips and uses his hands well to beat offensive lineman with swim moves, power moves, and double moves. He can finesse his away around linemen with his quickness, or just push the pocket with his brute strength. The only knock on Gholston is that he simply disappears at times. Probably not a perfect fit for the 4-3, Gholston could be a terror as a rush linebacker in a 3-4 defense and reminds many scouts of San Diego's Shawn Merriman. This former Buckeye has top 10 talent and could even go in the top 5 picks in April.
3.) Derrick Harvey 6-5 271 Florida
Not much separates the next two players on the list. Harvey was considered the third best defensive end when he declared early, but Merling's stock has risen dramatically through the off-season evaluation process. Harvey has been a standout for the Gators the past two seasons totaling 19.5 sacks to go with 29.5 tackles for loss. His timed speed (4.8 range) does not tell the whole story. He utilizes an extremely quick first step to get under offensive linemen and turn the corner. Although just a junior, Harvey displays great instincts and moves well laterally to pursue on running plays. However, his lack of ideal bulk and strength will make him vulnerable to power running games to his side. He put on some weight and improved his strength for the Combine, something he hopes will show he is dedicated to improving his areas of weakness. Harvey's spin move is devastating and his lateral quickness make his double moves difficult to mirror. He plays too high at times and could be vulnerable to cut blocks. Harvey has experience with his hand on the ground and as a stand up rusher. Both roles could suit him at the next level, and that versatility will make him appealing to teams in the middle of the first round.
4.) Phillip Merling 6-4 276 Clemson
Merling is a natural pass-rusher, but lacks the kind of athletic ability of the men above him. He uses excellent pursuit angles to negate his lack of quickness, although he has a good first step. Merling uses his hands well to fend off cut blocks, as well as fight off offensive lineman. His tackling skills are top-notch as he recorded 78 tackles as a senior, a huge number for a defensive lineman(Vernon Gholston only had 35). Unlike Harvey, Merling does not have great instincts and his aggressiveness gets him caught on delays and screens. In addition, he will not drive lineman back using his power and lacks great strength to anchor against the run. His go-to move, the swim, is very effective and he can redirect using his lateral quickness. Clemson used him at end, tackle, and stood him up and its a wonder how offenses did anything with Merling and Gaines Adams coming off the corners. Merling will not blow anyone away with his explosive ability, but always seems to be effective. He should go off the board somewhere in the teens in the first round.
5.) Calais Campbell 6-8 290 Miami (Fla.)
Once considered the top underclassman along the defensive line, Campbell's stock has fallen after a disappointing junior campaign. As a sophomore, Campbell had 20.5 tackles for loss and 10.5 sacks, not to mention 84 tackles overall. However, in 2007 Campbell barely had half those numbers and he struggled with his consistency, drawing double teams on a regular basis. He has unparalleled size and the strength to anchor against the run. While his timed speed is only average, he gets off the edge quickly and uses solid technique to keep blockers from latching on. He has several effective pass-rush moves and has good agility despite his size. He can use that lateral quickness to get push on stunts and blitzes inside. Campbell could be really disruptive in the passing lane with his long frame, but does not get his hands up often enough. Which player will he be on the next level? He has a ton of upside, but could disappear much like he did too often last season. Despite that, his talent is undeniable and he could go in the late first or early second round.
6.) Quinten Groves 6-3 259 Auburn
While Vernon Gholston has powerful explosion to get into the backfield, no pass-rusher in this year's draft has the kind of quickness Groves utilizes to wreck havoc. His numbers were done as a senior because he made a transition to playing more outside linebacker. However, the season before he had 9.5 sacks and 11.5 tackles for loss. Showing his superlative athletic ability, Groves ran sub 4.6 40's at the combine, second best among defensive lineman. In addition, Groves takes good angles in pursuit and relentlessly tracks the ball. While he does not possess great strength, Groves uses leverage very effectively to get low and push under lineman's pads. He certainly needs some polishing with his technique in drops, as well as his fundamentals as an end. Right now, his athletic ability has carried him through and he will need some teaching to be effective. Groves will fit best in a 3-4 system where he can fly around the field using his outstanding athletic ability. He has first round potential, but is a second prospect at this point. Expect him to go early on in the second round.
7.) Lawrence Jackson 6-4 271 USC
Unlike Groves, Jackson will not impress anyone with his speed and athletic ability. He has the size and strength to play both run and pass at the next level, and will not be bullied by bigger offensive lineman. The former Trojan lacks great initial burst, but has the quickness to get after quarterbacks, or move down to line to take down running backs. Jackson's solid technique allows him to keep separation with blockers and one-on-one he can be tough to handle even without fully-developed rush moves. Despite his lack of top-flight athletic prowess, you cannot argue with his production: 4 seasons with double digit TFL totals as well as two seasons over 10 sacks. He did play with tremendous talent around him on Pete Carroll's defense, but someone still has to make the plays and Jackson did so with regularity. Jackson belongs in a 4-3 system where he can work in space against tackles, as he struggles to split double teams. He has some experience inside and could play end in a 3-4 system, but that does not suit his skills nearly as well. Expect him to come off the board in the middle of the second round.
8.) Cliff Avril 6-3 253 Purdue
Avril's stock has been on the rise since the season ended. Avril blazed a 4.51 40 time at the combine and showed great quickness and burst. He moves extremely well and can move laterally, getting down the line of scrimmage to make tackles. At Purdue, Avril played both linebacker and defensive end and can get into the backfield to make plays at either position (He had 15 tackles for loss in each of the last two season, at two different positions). However, he does not have a wide array of pass-rush moves and relies very heavily on his athletic talent. Avril's motor is non-stop and he does not take plays off. With a clear position and fit in a system, he could really be a monster. This seems low for someone with the physical tools Avril has, and it may seem strange having him at end when most scouts consider him a linebacker prospect. Basically, Avril best fits a 3-4 system at outside linebacker, but played at Purdue with his hand down and will need considerable work to develop the drops and pass-recognition skills necessary to play linebacker on the next level. Regardless of what position you project him, he is still a second round pick.
9.) Kendall Langford 6-5 295 Hampton
The talent pool drops off here to some degree. Langford is one of the top small school prospects in this year's draft. Langford is also one of the biggest defensive end prospects in the draft and he could even get bigger and play tackle, something he has done at Hampton. He has the power to fight through double teams both inside and outside and could play end in either the 4-3 or 3-4, as well as tackle in the 4-3. Versatility does not mean athleticism in this case. Langford does not have an explosive first step, yet he manages to consistently get into backfields. In four years at Hampton, Langford has 56 tackles for loss including two seasons with 15.5. That is in addition to 24.5 sacks. Although Langford has played lesser competition, he has faced double teams for the last two years and still been just as productive. Although he does not have great explosion off the corner, he fights every down and will not get pushed back. His versatility makes him an intriguing small school prospect. He could go as high as the third round.
10.)Darrell Robertson 6-4 255 Georgia Tech
Darrell Robertson tore a pectoral muscle preparing for the off-season, but was extremely disruptive at Tech last season and impressed scouts at the Senior Bowl. Robertson has a good burst off the ball and was proficient getting into the backfield with 10 tackles behind the line in his senior campaign. He has good lateral agility to get down the line and really pursues hard. Robertson's bulk is a concern and he may struggle holding up against the run as a 4-3 end. No matter what system he plays in, he will have to get stronger. He does not use his hands particularly well to shed blocks or avoid cuts. Robertson may not be an every down player, but has the potential to be a situational pass-rusher in a 4-3 system and a great special teams player. The injury remains a lingering concern, although scouts have said it will not effect him that much. Expect him to go in the third round.
1.) Chris Long 6-3 272 Virginia
While Glenn Dorsey got most of the press for defensive linemen during the college football season, ACC teams saw the most disruptive defensive player in the country week in and week out. Part of that was because Dorsey battled injuries much of the season, but you cannot understate the kind of impact Chris Long had for the Cavaliers. Long recorded 14 sacks and 19 tackles behind the line of scrimmage. His motor never stops as he works toward the ball carrier. Long jolts offensive lineman, driving them back and then can use his strength and leverage to drive opposing tackles on their heels. While there have been questions about his athleticism, he put in one of the most impressive work outs at the combine running a 4.75 40, had a 34 inch vertical jump, and a defensive line best 4.21 20 yard shuttle. Long may not have elite speed overall, but his 10 yard split in the 40 was excellent, showing the kind of burst evident when you watch him play. His knack for disengaging from linemen prevents him being being held, something that will be critical when he matches up against the massive offensive tackles in the NFL. The Miami Dolphins reportedly have sincere interest in drafting Chris Long #1 overall, but if they does not, there is no way he slips out of the top 5.
2.) Vernon Gholston 6-3 266 Ohio State
To give you an idea of the kind of talent this kid has, Gholston dominated #1 OL Jake Long against Michigan, getting to the quarterback 3 times and recording another tackle behind the line. Furthermore, Gholston ran a 4.6 40, a combine best 37 reps of 225, and a defensive lineman best 35.5 inch vertical jump. Rumors has it, Miami will consider taking Gholston #1 overall to add this special edge rusher. Gholston has the physical tools (not to mention a body-builder physique) to be the best defensive player to come out of this year's draft, and has a legitimate chance to be the best overall player from '08 when his career is over. Gholston utilizes his strength and superior quickness to beat offensive lineman in a plethora of ways. He has good hips and uses his hands well to beat offensive lineman with swim moves, power moves, and double moves. He can finesse his away around linemen with his quickness, or just push the pocket with his brute strength. The only knock on Gholston is that he simply disappears at times. Probably not a perfect fit for the 4-3, Gholston could be a terror as a rush linebacker in a 3-4 defense and reminds many scouts of San Diego's Shawn Merriman. This former Buckeye has top 10 talent and could even go in the top 5 picks in April.
3.) Derrick Harvey 6-5 271 Florida
Not much separates the next two players on the list. Harvey was considered the third best defensive end when he declared early, but Merling's stock has risen dramatically through the off-season evaluation process. Harvey has been a standout for the Gators the past two seasons totaling 19.5 sacks to go with 29.5 tackles for loss. His timed speed (4.8 range) does not tell the whole story. He utilizes an extremely quick first step to get under offensive linemen and turn the corner. Although just a junior, Harvey displays great instincts and moves well laterally to pursue on running plays. However, his lack of ideal bulk and strength will make him vulnerable to power running games to his side. He put on some weight and improved his strength for the Combine, something he hopes will show he is dedicated to improving his areas of weakness. Harvey's spin move is devastating and his lateral quickness make his double moves difficult to mirror. He plays too high at times and could be vulnerable to cut blocks. Harvey has experience with his hand on the ground and as a stand up rusher. Both roles could suit him at the next level, and that versatility will make him appealing to teams in the middle of the first round.
4.) Phillip Merling 6-4 276 Clemson
Merling is a natural pass-rusher, but lacks the kind of athletic ability of the men above him. He uses excellent pursuit angles to negate his lack of quickness, although he has a good first step. Merling uses his hands well to fend off cut blocks, as well as fight off offensive lineman. His tackling skills are top-notch as he recorded 78 tackles as a senior, a huge number for a defensive lineman(Vernon Gholston only had 35). Unlike Harvey, Merling does not have great instincts and his aggressiveness gets him caught on delays and screens. In addition, he will not drive lineman back using his power and lacks great strength to anchor against the run. His go-to move, the swim, is very effective and he can redirect using his lateral quickness. Clemson used him at end, tackle, and stood him up and its a wonder how offenses did anything with Merling and Gaines Adams coming off the corners. Merling will not blow anyone away with his explosive ability, but always seems to be effective. He should go off the board somewhere in the teens in the first round.
5.) Calais Campbell 6-8 290 Miami (Fla.)
Once considered the top underclassman along the defensive line, Campbell's stock has fallen after a disappointing junior campaign. As a sophomore, Campbell had 20.5 tackles for loss and 10.5 sacks, not to mention 84 tackles overall. However, in 2007 Campbell barely had half those numbers and he struggled with his consistency, drawing double teams on a regular basis. He has unparalleled size and the strength to anchor against the run. While his timed speed is only average, he gets off the edge quickly and uses solid technique to keep blockers from latching on. He has several effective pass-rush moves and has good agility despite his size. He can use that lateral quickness to get push on stunts and blitzes inside. Campbell could be really disruptive in the passing lane with his long frame, but does not get his hands up often enough. Which player will he be on the next level? He has a ton of upside, but could disappear much like he did too often last season. Despite that, his talent is undeniable and he could go in the late first or early second round.
6.) Quinten Groves 6-3 259 Auburn
While Vernon Gholston has powerful explosion to get into the backfield, no pass-rusher in this year's draft has the kind of quickness Groves utilizes to wreck havoc. His numbers were done as a senior because he made a transition to playing more outside linebacker. However, the season before he had 9.5 sacks and 11.5 tackles for loss. Showing his superlative athletic ability, Groves ran sub 4.6 40's at the combine, second best among defensive lineman. In addition, Groves takes good angles in pursuit and relentlessly tracks the ball. While he does not possess great strength, Groves uses leverage very effectively to get low and push under lineman's pads. He certainly needs some polishing with his technique in drops, as well as his fundamentals as an end. Right now, his athletic ability has carried him through and he will need some teaching to be effective. Groves will fit best in a 3-4 system where he can fly around the field using his outstanding athletic ability. He has first round potential, but is a second prospect at this point. Expect him to go early on in the second round.
7.) Lawrence Jackson 6-4 271 USC
Unlike Groves, Jackson will not impress anyone with his speed and athletic ability. He has the size and strength to play both run and pass at the next level, and will not be bullied by bigger offensive lineman. The former Trojan lacks great initial burst, but has the quickness to get after quarterbacks, or move down to line to take down running backs. Jackson's solid technique allows him to keep separation with blockers and one-on-one he can be tough to handle even without fully-developed rush moves. Despite his lack of top-flight athletic prowess, you cannot argue with his production: 4 seasons with double digit TFL totals as well as two seasons over 10 sacks. He did play with tremendous talent around him on Pete Carroll's defense, but someone still has to make the plays and Jackson did so with regularity. Jackson belongs in a 4-3 system where he can work in space against tackles, as he struggles to split double teams. He has some experience inside and could play end in a 3-4 system, but that does not suit his skills nearly as well. Expect him to come off the board in the middle of the second round.
8.) Cliff Avril 6-3 253 Purdue
Avril's stock has been on the rise since the season ended. Avril blazed a 4.51 40 time at the combine and showed great quickness and burst. He moves extremely well and can move laterally, getting down the line of scrimmage to make tackles. At Purdue, Avril played both linebacker and defensive end and can get into the backfield to make plays at either position (He had 15 tackles for loss in each of the last two season, at two different positions). However, he does not have a wide array of pass-rush moves and relies very heavily on his athletic talent. Avril's motor is non-stop and he does not take plays off. With a clear position and fit in a system, he could really be a monster. This seems low for someone with the physical tools Avril has, and it may seem strange having him at end when most scouts consider him a linebacker prospect. Basically, Avril best fits a 3-4 system at outside linebacker, but played at Purdue with his hand down and will need considerable work to develop the drops and pass-recognition skills necessary to play linebacker on the next level. Regardless of what position you project him, he is still a second round pick.
9.) Kendall Langford 6-5 295 Hampton
The talent pool drops off here to some degree. Langford is one of the top small school prospects in this year's draft. Langford is also one of the biggest defensive end prospects in the draft and he could even get bigger and play tackle, something he has done at Hampton. He has the power to fight through double teams both inside and outside and could play end in either the 4-3 or 3-4, as well as tackle in the 4-3. Versatility does not mean athleticism in this case. Langford does not have an explosive first step, yet he manages to consistently get into backfields. In four years at Hampton, Langford has 56 tackles for loss including two seasons with 15.5. That is in addition to 24.5 sacks. Although Langford has played lesser competition, he has faced double teams for the last two years and still been just as productive. Although he does not have great explosion off the corner, he fights every down and will not get pushed back. His versatility makes him an intriguing small school prospect. He could go as high as the third round.
10.)Darrell Robertson 6-4 255 Georgia Tech
Darrell Robertson tore a pectoral muscle preparing for the off-season, but was extremely disruptive at Tech last season and impressed scouts at the Senior Bowl. Robertson has a good burst off the ball and was proficient getting into the backfield with 10 tackles behind the line in his senior campaign. He has good lateral agility to get down the line and really pursues hard. Robertson's bulk is a concern and he may struggle holding up against the run as a 4-3 end. No matter what system he plays in, he will have to get stronger. He does not use his hands particularly well to shed blocks or avoid cuts. Robertson may not be an every down player, but has the potential to be a situational pass-rusher in a 4-3 system and a great special teams player. The injury remains a lingering concern, although scouts have said it will not effect him that much. Expect him to go in the third round.
Sunday, March 16, 2008
NFL Draft Preview: Safties
The 2008 safety class mirrors the linebacker class in terms of talent. Kenny Phillips and Reggie Smith are the only players worthy of first round consideration, but the rest of the class has depth and talent in the early and middle rounds. Players like Simeon Castille will have to transition to safety from corner, while Reggie Smith has experience playing both. Safeties do not suffer from the same kind of allocation based on schemes like linebackers or even corners might. In fact, a safeties have less specificity because responsibilities are similar across zone and man schemes with the major difference being in Cover 2 systems. This class is not nearly as solid at the top as the 2007 class, but it has enough talent to give teams a lift for the 2008 season.
1.) Kenny Phillips 6-2 212 Miami (Fla.)
At one time, Phillips was considered a top 15, even top 10 player. As a sophomore with Brandon Meriweather, the two were one of the best safety tandems in the country. However, Phillips' junior season was somewhat disappointing, although his supporting cast was not as good. That has hurt his stock to some degree, but he is still the top safety in this year's draft. A starter since his true freshman year, Phillips has had at least 70 tackles in three seasons, and 80 or more twice. He is extremely athletic and ran sub 4.5 40's at the combine, and uses his quickness to break on the ball while it is in the air. His speed and aggressiveness can also get him into trouble because he tends to bite on fakes, or over pursue. Phillips reads quarterback's eyes and can recognize routes very quickly. But he lacks great ball skills and does not get many interceptions. His size could be a problem in run support as he does not have the strength to shed bigger blockers. Phillips is not a great tackler and does not break down consistently, but he can deliver big hits on receivers across the middle. Phillips has the cover skills and speed to play corner, but his awareness and reading ability make him an intriguing safety prospect. May not be a top 10 player on most boards, but a team at the bottom of the first round could be getting a steal.
2.) Reggie Smith 6-1 199 Oklahoma
Smith is one of the most versatile defensive prospect in this draft. He has experience playing all of the defensive back positions, but he seems most suited to play safety at the next level. While that versatility seems like a plus, Smith does not have great technique for a corner, although he his natural athletic ability gives him excellent fluidity in his hips to stay with receivers even on double moves. Smith is a more physical player than Phillips and his time at strong safety makes him a much better run support player. In addition, he is a better tackler than Phillips, particularly in space. His biggest weakness as a corner is his technique and in a man coverage scheme that could really hurt him with some teams. However a team like Green Bay who values physical corners, as well as teams playing Cover 2 schemes will really like Smith's toughness and physicality. Regardless of whether teams draft him to play corner or safety, he is a late first round or early second round prospect.
3.) DaJuan Morgan 6-0 205 North Carolina State
The safety pool drops off quickly after Phillips and Smith, but Morgan represents the "best of the rest." Morgan only has one year as a full-time starter, as a hip-injury has limited him through his career. Despite ideal experience, Morgan is a smart, vocal player and was a leader on the Wolf Pack defense. He was extremely productive as a junior, totaling 97 tackles for NC State and was a special team ace earlier in his career. Morgan does not have idea range for a free safety in the NFL, but is aggressive and physical in the box while supporting the run. His aggressiveness does not necessarily translate into effective tackling technique and he too often looks for the knock out punch rather than just being sound and wrapping up. Morgan does not have explosive quickness and will have a tough time recovering after a wrong read. That lack of quickness will also hinder him in coverage on slot receivers and tight ends. Overall, Morgan is a physical player who is most suited to play in a zone coverage scheme where he is free to support in the run game. He is a late second or early third round prospect.
4.) Thomas DeCoud 6-1 207 California
Thomas DeCoud is one of the more interesting prospects in this year's draft. Tall and athletic, the former Cal standout is smooth and was one of the big defensive players in the Pac-10. He was voted the team's MVP after recording 116 tackles in 2007 including six double figure tackle games. That is even more remarkable when you consider DeCoud was not a full time starter until last season. As a result, his recognition skills are still improving. Also, his coverage skills are still improving and has room to upgrade as a man-to-man defender. Despite his lean frame, DeCoud plays with tremendous tenacity and can lay serious hits on receivers across the middle. However, he can get a little overzealous going for the knock-out punch and not use solid fundamentals when tackling. As a special teams player DeCoud has 6 blocked kicks in his career giving him great special teams potential. DeCoud is an underrated prospect who has enough upside to warrant a selection in the mid-third round.
5.) Marcus Griffin 5-10 201 Texas
Griffin is another one of many former Longhorn defensive backs with NFL skills. He is a strong and an aggressive player who tackles very well. However, his speed is just average and he does not have much upside as a cover safety. While the ball is in the air, Griffin does not have great instincts, or ball skills to make the big play. He seems like a strong safety, but will need to get bigger and stronger to take on the bigger blockers at the next level. In addition to his lack of speed, his upside is somewhat limited. It also limits the defensive schemes he can play effectively on the next level. He lacks the range to play free safety in a cover 3 scheme, and could be better suited in a cover 2 system. If nothing else, he has special team potential and may never be a starter. In the right system however, he has the skill-set to succeed. His brother, Michael was a first round pick by the Tennessee Titans last year and while Marcus does not have the talent of his brother, he does have enough talent to make his way into the late third round in April.
6.) Tyrelle Johnson 6-0 207 Arkansas State
The next two guys on the list having seen their stock sky-rocket since the NFL Combine and are two of the most athletically gifted players on the defensive side of the ball. Johnson put up a defensive back best 27 reps of 225 at the Combine, as well as tops in the broad jump for safeties. Add that to a low 4.4 40 time and Johnson put together one of the most impressive work-outs of the week. While he may not always play up to his work-out numbers, at Arkansas State Johnson was highly productive. In 2007, Johnson recorded 94 tackles and snagged 6 picks. Certainly, he did not play against top-tier teams every week, but he dominated against the weaker competition. Johnson's combination of speed and strength give him great versatility in both pass coverage and in run support. He likes to come up and put a lick on someone, but can struggling shedding blockers. He does not have great fluidity in his hips and that makes it hard for him to match up against slot receivers, but his great speed negates that to some degree against tight ends. Johnson's superb athletic ability and intelligence give up immense upside. A team in the third round could certainly take a gamble on the former Indians stand out.
7.) Joshua Barrett 6-2 223 Arizona State
This is actually exactly where I had Barrett ranked mid-season, and if not for his virtuoso performance in Indy, Barrett could have fallen out of the top 10. Barett's 4.35 40 was far and away the fastest time of any safety, and was actually faster than top ranked corners Mike Jenkins, Leodis McKelvin, and Aqib Talib. Physically, Barrett has every tool to be a Pro Bowl player at the next level. He sheds blocks well and is extremely aggressive. However, that aggression leads him to take false steps. Additionally, Barrett is susceptible to play action fakes and his recovery speed is not nearly as good as his timed speed would indicate. Also, his speed belies that fact that he does not open his hips effectively and will struggle one-on-one with slot receivers. Inconsistency has been Barrett's biggest problem. In fact, he was benched during his senior year for a brief period. There are also some concerns about his durability after losing his freshman year to a shoulder injury. Barrett's incredible physical tools make him an attractive prospect, but his inconsistencies will keep him out of the top two rounds. Barrett could fall to the bottom of the third round, or even in the early fourth.
8.) Tom Zbikowski 5-11 211 Notre Dame
Notre Dame's defense has been exposed in big games in recent years and quality college QB's like Troy Smith, JeMarcus Russell, and Matt Ryan has abused the coverage skills of ND defensive backs in big games. Tom Zbikowski has been a starter on that defense for 3 straight years. While Zbikowski may have been one of the few bright spots for the Golden Domers defensive backfield, he has not played well against top-level offensive talent. Matt Ryan carved Zbikowski and that ND defense in the fall in a Eagles win. The fomer Golden-Gloves boxer is extremely tough and aggressive, but can get caught out of position at times due to poor reads or over-pursuit. Zbikowski lacks the speed to make up for such mistakes and therefore is susceptible to giving up the big play. When he is in position, he has solid ball skills and can really be explosive with the ball in his hand as he was ND's punt returner. Limited athletically, Zbikowski has only average recovery speed and may not have the range to cover the deep middle. He may never be a starter on the next level, but his experience on special teams, particularly in the return game gives him some upside. Zbikowski should go somewhere in the fourth round.
9.) Simeon Castille 6-0 195 Alabama
Castille seems to fit the mold of a free safety perfectly; he is an assertive corner with excellent ball skills and awareness, but lacks top end speed and agility to run with top-tier receivers. He will have to add strength to hold up in the run game, however he takes solid angles and fills well in support. Castille is not a physical tackler, but does lock on in space. If there is one place Castille's corner skills could get into trouble at the safety position it is his aggressiveness. Castille has a tendency to gamble and as a safety it could make him vulnerable to play action fakes. His lack of ideal corner footwork should be negated to some degree at safety as he will really only have to match up against slot receivers and tight ends where his athletic ability should get him through. His stock has slipped because of an August arrest for disorderly conduct. Castille also missed the 2005 Cotton Bowl because of academic failings. Castille still has some upside as he gets stronger and gets used to playing safety. As a result, expect him to go in the late fourth or early fifth round.
10.) Craig Steltz 6-1 213 Lousiana State University
Steltz could be a case of excellent college player whose skills simply will not translate as well into the NFL. On the other hand, he might just be an instinctive player with limited athletic ability who happens to always be around the ball making plays. To be fair, he is the latter, however teams will have to determine how his limitations fit within their particular system. Some teams could have Steltz as a top 5 safety prospect, and others close to 10 or 12. Steltz had 6 INT's last season and has great ball skills. However, he does not have great speed, or quickness to recover when beaten. His range as a college safety wmay not be sufficient to play center field in the NFL. He has the strength and toughness to make plays in the box, but is not big enough at this point to hold up against bigger blockers. In addition, he only has one season as a full-time starter and he could have benefited from playing on an absolutely loaded L.S.U. defense. Overall, Steltz may be a tad underrated, and at the very least projects as an excellent special teamer on Sundays. He probably belongs in the early fifth round, but a team could really fall in love with his toughness and productivity, taking a risk on him in the fourth round.
1.) Kenny Phillips 6-2 212 Miami (Fla.)
At one time, Phillips was considered a top 15, even top 10 player. As a sophomore with Brandon Meriweather, the two were one of the best safety tandems in the country. However, Phillips' junior season was somewhat disappointing, although his supporting cast was not as good. That has hurt his stock to some degree, but he is still the top safety in this year's draft. A starter since his true freshman year, Phillips has had at least 70 tackles in three seasons, and 80 or more twice. He is extremely athletic and ran sub 4.5 40's at the combine, and uses his quickness to break on the ball while it is in the air. His speed and aggressiveness can also get him into trouble because he tends to bite on fakes, or over pursue. Phillips reads quarterback's eyes and can recognize routes very quickly. But he lacks great ball skills and does not get many interceptions. His size could be a problem in run support as he does not have the strength to shed bigger blockers. Phillips is not a great tackler and does not break down consistently, but he can deliver big hits on receivers across the middle. Phillips has the cover skills and speed to play corner, but his awareness and reading ability make him an intriguing safety prospect. May not be a top 10 player on most boards, but a team at the bottom of the first round could be getting a steal.
2.) Reggie Smith 6-1 199 Oklahoma
Smith is one of the most versatile defensive prospect in this draft. He has experience playing all of the defensive back positions, but he seems most suited to play safety at the next level. While that versatility seems like a plus, Smith does not have great technique for a corner, although he his natural athletic ability gives him excellent fluidity in his hips to stay with receivers even on double moves. Smith is a more physical player than Phillips and his time at strong safety makes him a much better run support player. In addition, he is a better tackler than Phillips, particularly in space. His biggest weakness as a corner is his technique and in a man coverage scheme that could really hurt him with some teams. However a team like Green Bay who values physical corners, as well as teams playing Cover 2 schemes will really like Smith's toughness and physicality. Regardless of whether teams draft him to play corner or safety, he is a late first round or early second round prospect.
3.) DaJuan Morgan 6-0 205 North Carolina State
The safety pool drops off quickly after Phillips and Smith, but Morgan represents the "best of the rest." Morgan only has one year as a full-time starter, as a hip-injury has limited him through his career. Despite ideal experience, Morgan is a smart, vocal player and was a leader on the Wolf Pack defense. He was extremely productive as a junior, totaling 97 tackles for NC State and was a special team ace earlier in his career. Morgan does not have idea range for a free safety in the NFL, but is aggressive and physical in the box while supporting the run. His aggressiveness does not necessarily translate into effective tackling technique and he too often looks for the knock out punch rather than just being sound and wrapping up. Morgan does not have explosive quickness and will have a tough time recovering after a wrong read. That lack of quickness will also hinder him in coverage on slot receivers and tight ends. Overall, Morgan is a physical player who is most suited to play in a zone coverage scheme where he is free to support in the run game. He is a late second or early third round prospect.
4.) Thomas DeCoud 6-1 207 California
Thomas DeCoud is one of the more interesting prospects in this year's draft. Tall and athletic, the former Cal standout is smooth and was one of the big defensive players in the Pac-10. He was voted the team's MVP after recording 116 tackles in 2007 including six double figure tackle games. That is even more remarkable when you consider DeCoud was not a full time starter until last season. As a result, his recognition skills are still improving. Also, his coverage skills are still improving and has room to upgrade as a man-to-man defender. Despite his lean frame, DeCoud plays with tremendous tenacity and can lay serious hits on receivers across the middle. However, he can get a little overzealous going for the knock-out punch and not use solid fundamentals when tackling. As a special teams player DeCoud has 6 blocked kicks in his career giving him great special teams potential. DeCoud is an underrated prospect who has enough upside to warrant a selection in the mid-third round.
5.) Marcus Griffin 5-10 201 Texas
Griffin is another one of many former Longhorn defensive backs with NFL skills. He is a strong and an aggressive player who tackles very well. However, his speed is just average and he does not have much upside as a cover safety. While the ball is in the air, Griffin does not have great instincts, or ball skills to make the big play. He seems like a strong safety, but will need to get bigger and stronger to take on the bigger blockers at the next level. In addition to his lack of speed, his upside is somewhat limited. It also limits the defensive schemes he can play effectively on the next level. He lacks the range to play free safety in a cover 3 scheme, and could be better suited in a cover 2 system. If nothing else, he has special team potential and may never be a starter. In the right system however, he has the skill-set to succeed. His brother, Michael was a first round pick by the Tennessee Titans last year and while Marcus does not have the talent of his brother, he does have enough talent to make his way into the late third round in April.
6.) Tyrelle Johnson 6-0 207 Arkansas State
The next two guys on the list having seen their stock sky-rocket since the NFL Combine and are two of the most athletically gifted players on the defensive side of the ball. Johnson put up a defensive back best 27 reps of 225 at the Combine, as well as tops in the broad jump for safeties. Add that to a low 4.4 40 time and Johnson put together one of the most impressive work-outs of the week. While he may not always play up to his work-out numbers, at Arkansas State Johnson was highly productive. In 2007, Johnson recorded 94 tackles and snagged 6 picks. Certainly, he did not play against top-tier teams every week, but he dominated against the weaker competition. Johnson's combination of speed and strength give him great versatility in both pass coverage and in run support. He likes to come up and put a lick on someone, but can struggling shedding blockers. He does not have great fluidity in his hips and that makes it hard for him to match up against slot receivers, but his great speed negates that to some degree against tight ends. Johnson's superb athletic ability and intelligence give up immense upside. A team in the third round could certainly take a gamble on the former Indians stand out.
7.) Joshua Barrett 6-2 223 Arizona State
This is actually exactly where I had Barrett ranked mid-season, and if not for his virtuoso performance in Indy, Barrett could have fallen out of the top 10. Barett's 4.35 40 was far and away the fastest time of any safety, and was actually faster than top ranked corners Mike Jenkins, Leodis McKelvin, and Aqib Talib. Physically, Barrett has every tool to be a Pro Bowl player at the next level. He sheds blocks well and is extremely aggressive. However, that aggression leads him to take false steps. Additionally, Barrett is susceptible to play action fakes and his recovery speed is not nearly as good as his timed speed would indicate. Also, his speed belies that fact that he does not open his hips effectively and will struggle one-on-one with slot receivers. Inconsistency has been Barrett's biggest problem. In fact, he was benched during his senior year for a brief period. There are also some concerns about his durability after losing his freshman year to a shoulder injury. Barrett's incredible physical tools make him an attractive prospect, but his inconsistencies will keep him out of the top two rounds. Barrett could fall to the bottom of the third round, or even in the early fourth.
8.) Tom Zbikowski 5-11 211 Notre Dame
Notre Dame's defense has been exposed in big games in recent years and quality college QB's like Troy Smith, JeMarcus Russell, and Matt Ryan has abused the coverage skills of ND defensive backs in big games. Tom Zbikowski has been a starter on that defense for 3 straight years. While Zbikowski may have been one of the few bright spots for the Golden Domers defensive backfield, he has not played well against top-level offensive talent. Matt Ryan carved Zbikowski and that ND defense in the fall in a Eagles win. The fomer Golden-Gloves boxer is extremely tough and aggressive, but can get caught out of position at times due to poor reads or over-pursuit. Zbikowski lacks the speed to make up for such mistakes and therefore is susceptible to giving up the big play. When he is in position, he has solid ball skills and can really be explosive with the ball in his hand as he was ND's punt returner. Limited athletically, Zbikowski has only average recovery speed and may not have the range to cover the deep middle. He may never be a starter on the next level, but his experience on special teams, particularly in the return game gives him some upside. Zbikowski should go somewhere in the fourth round.
9.) Simeon Castille 6-0 195 Alabama
Castille seems to fit the mold of a free safety perfectly; he is an assertive corner with excellent ball skills and awareness, but lacks top end speed and agility to run with top-tier receivers. He will have to add strength to hold up in the run game, however he takes solid angles and fills well in support. Castille is not a physical tackler, but does lock on in space. If there is one place Castille's corner skills could get into trouble at the safety position it is his aggressiveness. Castille has a tendency to gamble and as a safety it could make him vulnerable to play action fakes. His lack of ideal corner footwork should be negated to some degree at safety as he will really only have to match up against slot receivers and tight ends where his athletic ability should get him through. His stock has slipped because of an August arrest for disorderly conduct. Castille also missed the 2005 Cotton Bowl because of academic failings. Castille still has some upside as he gets stronger and gets used to playing safety. As a result, expect him to go in the late fourth or early fifth round.
10.) Craig Steltz 6-1 213 Lousiana State University
Steltz could be a case of excellent college player whose skills simply will not translate as well into the NFL. On the other hand, he might just be an instinctive player with limited athletic ability who happens to always be around the ball making plays. To be fair, he is the latter, however teams will have to determine how his limitations fit within their particular system. Some teams could have Steltz as a top 5 safety prospect, and others close to 10 or 12. Steltz had 6 INT's last season and has great ball skills. However, he does not have great speed, or quickness to recover when beaten. His range as a college safety wmay not be sufficient to play center field in the NFL. He has the strength and toughness to make plays in the box, but is not big enough at this point to hold up against bigger blockers. In addition, he only has one season as a full-time starter and he could have benefited from playing on an absolutely loaded L.S.U. defense. Overall, Steltz may be a tad underrated, and at the very least projects as an excellent special teamer on Sundays. He probably belongs in the early fifth round, but a team could really fall in love with his toughness and productivity, taking a risk on him in the fourth round.
Monday, March 10, 2008
You Can't Blame Wade
The Miami Heat announced today that Dwyane Wade would miss the rest of the season to rest his surgically repaired knee which has been bothering him all season long. As Marc Stein of ESPN.com put it after Saturday's quasi-double header,we have expected him to be "DNP Lottery," implying Wade would sit because the Heat are atrocious and have no shot at the playoffs. With Wade out the rest of the year, it now seems assured the Heat will wind up with a top 3 pick in June's NBA Draft,although with a soft schedule, they may win more games than people think.
Undoubtedly, if the Heat were in playoff contention, Wade would play through the pain and try and help his team win, but I want to point something out: In that two for one saturday night, Wade played 39 minutes and all he did was score 24 points on 11-20 shooting and dish out 8 dimes. Oh, right, that is on a knee that will keep him out the remainder of the season. I know, I know, the Heat are done so there is no reason to risk further injury by playing the South Beach super-star. But, Wade has been dogged and criticized all season long for being on a team with Shaq (now Shawn Marion) and Pat Riley and only winning 11 games. Reggie Miller recently said during a Lakers-Heat game that if Kobe Bryant and Flash switched places, the Heat would be in the playoffs. Just yesterday Marc Jackson and Jeff Van Gundy didn't place Wade in the top 5 shooting guards in the NBA (to be fair, Van Gundy had him at 5 1/2). Really??
Without getting into too much data analysis we can briefly compare Lebron and Wade's career averages.
Wade: 23.9 PPG, 6.5 AST, 4.8 RB, 1.7 STL on 48.1% Shooting
James: 27.3 PPG, 6.6 AST, 6.9 RB, 1.8 STL on 46.7% Shooting
To put that into perspective Lebron James has taken 7904 shots in his career while Flash just 5428 according to basketball-reference.com. Assuming Wade took as many shots as Lebron and still made 48.1%, that is an extra 1191 buckets, or another 2382 points. Over Wade's 315 games played that is an extra 7.56 points per game. Not to mention, it would have been in nearly 3500 less minutes.
Now that I have delved dangerously into John Hollinger territory, we ultimately measure superstars by the jewelry they wear. Not the stuff they show us on cribs, but the championship rings. Michael Jeffrey Jordan isn't the face of basketball because he stuck his tongue out, or dunked on anyone and everyone. He won 6 rings, made his teammates better, and won games. He took the Bulls from the valley to the mountain top, something we're still waiting for the heir to the thrown, Prince James (thank you Skip Bayless) to do.
During the 2001 and 2002 seasons the Miami Heat had a combined 61 victories and only 25 in 2002. Enter Dwyane Wade. In 2003, the Heat went 42-40 (a +17 improvement) and went to the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals. In comparison the Cleveland Cavaliers were 17-65 the season before they drafted Lebron James. In 2003, with Lebron, they finished 35-47, a +18 improvement for the Cavs. It should also be noted that Lebron had 3 other 15.0+ per game scores on that Cavs team, while Wade only had two.
By 2004, the Heat had Shaq and a shot at the Eastern Conference Championship and another +17 game improvement to 59-23, Miami's first 50 win season since 2000(The Cavs won 42 games, a +7 improvement). Shaq got a ton of credit for putting the Heat on top, but Wade was absolutely unstoppable in the playoffs. The Heat swept both the Nets and Wizards and the former Marquette Star averaged nearly 26, 9, and 6 boards on 50% shooting against the Nets. Then, to outdo himself, he went for 31,8, and 7 rebounds a game in the series against Washington. Then in the series against the Pistons, Wade scored 42 in Game 2 and 36 in Game 3 before injuring his rib in Game 5. That injury kept him out in the 6th, and limited him in the 7th. If not for Wade's sinusitis, the flu, and the aforementioned rib muscle, the Heat probably would have held onto their 3-2 series lead against the Pistons, and had a great shot to beat the Spurs in the 2005 Finals.
Have we forgotten what happened 20 months ago when Dwyane Wade was putting on one of the greatest individual show in recent Finals memory? How about 16 free throws a game, shattering the old NBA Finals attempts record? Then there is 34.7 points per game in the Finals, the third highest average all-time. I understand, the Mavs choked, but after the 2006 Finals, Wade was being called the closest thing to MJ since MJ. Has he really fallen so far? Has Lebron really widened the gap between the two? Is there really even a gap?
Ok that is ancient history by sport standards. The Heat are 11-50 and Wade is done. The arena is empty on South Beach, people would rather party than watch the Heat get blown out again, or lose another close game. Wade has carried this team on his shoulders since Day 1. I don't want to hear that Lebron has too and look, he has higher scoring numbers. I already showed that if Wade was a Lebron-style ball-hog, he'd have Oscar Robertson-type numbers. And it wasn't until last year's playoffs and this season that Lebron started showing up in the fourth quarter. It wasn't until this season Lebron started making free throws. Since Wade's second year he has been one of the best closers in the NBA. If the Heat were in games late, especially if they were ahead, Wade would take over.
Wade's body has taken a beating and he still has carried his team, still played hard, and hasn't taken garbage shots. He could be padding his stats right now, hoping to get another huge contract. Instead, Wade is getting 6.9 assists per game, 12th in the NBA and behind only Allen Iverson in shooting guards. Only 3 players in the NBA this season are in the top 10 in scoring and the top 15 in assists: Wade, AI, Lebron. I understand Wade had the lowest winning percentage of any All-Star ever. Kobe couldn't take his team all the way without help, that is how his team wound up in the lottery to grab Andrew Bynum. Only since the Lakers picked up Gasol and Bynum started playing like an All-Star have the Lakers been in the championship discussion. Wade's team is terrible. Shawn Marion is the only player who could start on just about every other team in the league. Udonis Haslem could start on maybe half. Beyond that, the team has lost Jason Kapono, Antoine Walker, Gary Payton, Alonzo Mourning, James Posey from its championship team and replaced them with a bunch of backups.
Wade's arc was still rising when Shane Battier dislocated his shoulder last season. We still see the flashes of his brilliance when he splits 3 defenders and scores on a reverse lay-up. Wade has battled through the shoulder injury and the soreness from off-season knee-surgery all season and still managed to put up all-star numbers. The Heat are rebuilding, but they will do it around one of the best young players in the game. His team's record belies his unique gifts. Fall down 7, stand up 8, that was the commercial. Put Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley or DeAndre Jordan next to a healthy and rested Wade and Marion next season and I think you'll see: The 2007-08 Miami heat are terrible, but you can't blame Wade.
Undoubtedly, if the Heat were in playoff contention, Wade would play through the pain and try and help his team win, but I want to point something out: In that two for one saturday night, Wade played 39 minutes and all he did was score 24 points on 11-20 shooting and dish out 8 dimes. Oh, right, that is on a knee that will keep him out the remainder of the season. I know, I know, the Heat are done so there is no reason to risk further injury by playing the South Beach super-star. But, Wade has been dogged and criticized all season long for being on a team with Shaq (now Shawn Marion) and Pat Riley and only winning 11 games. Reggie Miller recently said during a Lakers-Heat game that if Kobe Bryant and Flash switched places, the Heat would be in the playoffs. Just yesterday Marc Jackson and Jeff Van Gundy didn't place Wade in the top 5 shooting guards in the NBA (to be fair, Van Gundy had him at 5 1/2). Really??
Without getting into too much data analysis we can briefly compare Lebron and Wade's career averages.
Wade: 23.9 PPG, 6.5 AST, 4.8 RB, 1.7 STL on 48.1% Shooting
James: 27.3 PPG, 6.6 AST, 6.9 RB, 1.8 STL on 46.7% Shooting
To put that into perspective Lebron James has taken 7904 shots in his career while Flash just 5428 according to basketball-reference.com. Assuming Wade took as many shots as Lebron and still made 48.1%, that is an extra 1191 buckets, or another 2382 points. Over Wade's 315 games played that is an extra 7.56 points per game. Not to mention, it would have been in nearly 3500 less minutes.
Now that I have delved dangerously into John Hollinger territory, we ultimately measure superstars by the jewelry they wear. Not the stuff they show us on cribs, but the championship rings. Michael Jeffrey Jordan isn't the face of basketball because he stuck his tongue out, or dunked on anyone and everyone. He won 6 rings, made his teammates better, and won games. He took the Bulls from the valley to the mountain top, something we're still waiting for the heir to the thrown, Prince James (thank you Skip Bayless) to do.
During the 2001 and 2002 seasons the Miami Heat had a combined 61 victories and only 25 in 2002. Enter Dwyane Wade. In 2003, the Heat went 42-40 (a +17 improvement) and went to the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals. In comparison the Cleveland Cavaliers were 17-65 the season before they drafted Lebron James. In 2003, with Lebron, they finished 35-47, a +18 improvement for the Cavs. It should also be noted that Lebron had 3 other 15.0+ per game scores on that Cavs team, while Wade only had two.
By 2004, the Heat had Shaq and a shot at the Eastern Conference Championship and another +17 game improvement to 59-23, Miami's first 50 win season since 2000(The Cavs won 42 games, a +7 improvement). Shaq got a ton of credit for putting the Heat on top, but Wade was absolutely unstoppable in the playoffs. The Heat swept both the Nets and Wizards and the former Marquette Star averaged nearly 26, 9, and 6 boards on 50% shooting against the Nets. Then, to outdo himself, he went for 31,8, and 7 rebounds a game in the series against Washington. Then in the series against the Pistons, Wade scored 42 in Game 2 and 36 in Game 3 before injuring his rib in Game 5. That injury kept him out in the 6th, and limited him in the 7th. If not for Wade's sinusitis, the flu, and the aforementioned rib muscle, the Heat probably would have held onto their 3-2 series lead against the Pistons, and had a great shot to beat the Spurs in the 2005 Finals.
Have we forgotten what happened 20 months ago when Dwyane Wade was putting on one of the greatest individual show in recent Finals memory? How about 16 free throws a game, shattering the old NBA Finals attempts record? Then there is 34.7 points per game in the Finals, the third highest average all-time. I understand, the Mavs choked, but after the 2006 Finals, Wade was being called the closest thing to MJ since MJ. Has he really fallen so far? Has Lebron really widened the gap between the two? Is there really even a gap?
Ok that is ancient history by sport standards. The Heat are 11-50 and Wade is done. The arena is empty on South Beach, people would rather party than watch the Heat get blown out again, or lose another close game. Wade has carried this team on his shoulders since Day 1. I don't want to hear that Lebron has too and look, he has higher scoring numbers. I already showed that if Wade was a Lebron-style ball-hog, he'd have Oscar Robertson-type numbers. And it wasn't until last year's playoffs and this season that Lebron started showing up in the fourth quarter. It wasn't until this season Lebron started making free throws. Since Wade's second year he has been one of the best closers in the NBA. If the Heat were in games late, especially if they were ahead, Wade would take over.
Wade's body has taken a beating and he still has carried his team, still played hard, and hasn't taken garbage shots. He could be padding his stats right now, hoping to get another huge contract. Instead, Wade is getting 6.9 assists per game, 12th in the NBA and behind only Allen Iverson in shooting guards. Only 3 players in the NBA this season are in the top 10 in scoring and the top 15 in assists: Wade, AI, Lebron. I understand Wade had the lowest winning percentage of any All-Star ever. Kobe couldn't take his team all the way without help, that is how his team wound up in the lottery to grab Andrew Bynum. Only since the Lakers picked up Gasol and Bynum started playing like an All-Star have the Lakers been in the championship discussion. Wade's team is terrible. Shawn Marion is the only player who could start on just about every other team in the league. Udonis Haslem could start on maybe half. Beyond that, the team has lost Jason Kapono, Antoine Walker, Gary Payton, Alonzo Mourning, James Posey from its championship team and replaced them with a bunch of backups.
Wade's arc was still rising when Shane Battier dislocated his shoulder last season. We still see the flashes of his brilliance when he splits 3 defenders and scores on a reverse lay-up. Wade has battled through the shoulder injury and the soreness from off-season knee-surgery all season and still managed to put up all-star numbers. The Heat are rebuilding, but they will do it around one of the best young players in the game. His team's record belies his unique gifts. Fall down 7, stand up 8, that was the commercial. Put Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley or DeAndre Jordan next to a healthy and rested Wade and Marion next season and I think you'll see: The 2007-08 Miami heat are terrible, but you can't blame Wade.
NFL Draft Preview: Centers/Guards
The rest of the offensive line pool beyond the tackles does not have very much to get excited about. Brandon Albert from Virginia is the only not OT prospect who has a first round grade. Beyond him, only a handful of players have even a first day grade. There is no doubt, tackle is the money-maker on the offensive line, but teams like Minnesota and San Diego, who run the ball so effectively, get strong play from their interior to run between the tackles. In addition, these interior players often have a better chance of having success right away. Top pick D'Brickashaw Ferguson of the Jets still has not settled in as a LT in the NFL, but C Nic Mangold, who was taken at the bottom of the first round, is arguably the best player on the Jets line right now. The 2008 class, while it may lack great depth or outstanding blue-chippers at the top, certainly has players capable of helping teams upfront right away.
Guards
1. Brandon Albert 6-6 309 Virginia
Albert's stock has risen considerably this season and now represents the only first round prospect along the interior. He uses his gargantuan frame and extremely long arms to keep defenders at bay. The problem is he lacks explosion and punch when making contact and isn't going to blow anyone off the line. For a man his size, Albert possesses excellent footwork and quickness in space. His mean streak and demeanor do not necessarily translate into physicality, but he is tough and versatile. Albert gets to the second level well and flashes the ability to hit moving targets when pulling around the corner. Much like former Cav D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Albert is a much better pass blocker than run blocker at this point. He does utilize outstanding technique and it can get him off balance at times. In addition, Albert seems to take plays off if he isn't play side and can't necessarily be counted on to hustle down field to throw a second or third block. Some experience at tackle gives him added versatility and appeal for teams. Albert will likely be the first interior lineman selected and a team like Pittsburgh could take him late in the first round.
2. Chilo Rachal 6-4 313 USC
Rachal possesses a significantly different skill set than Albert. The former USC Trojan is a powerful drive blocker who can get good push up front. While he is not as athletic as Albert, Rachal can turn the corner and will engulf smaller defenders like linebackers and safeties on sweeps and traps. As a pass blocker, Rachal has a solid anchor and will not get pushed back into the pocket by power rushers inside. He uses his smarts and awareness to pick up stunts and blitzes. On the other hand, he lacks ideal athleticism and will struggle against double moves particularly when nimble rush ends come inside. Utilizes solid technique overall, but does not cut-block effectively. In addition, if his defender is not where he "should" be, rather than getting in position, Rachal has a tendency to lunge and get off balance. Rachal will not be right in all offensive systems and could have used another year of polishing at USC. However, he is one of the few top-level prospects at the position and will come likely come off the board in the second round.
3. Roy Schuening 6-4 317 Oregon State
The most experienced player on this list, Schuening was a four year starter at Oregon State, playing a school record 50 consecutive games. He even started at tackle due to injuries, giving him added versatility on the next level. Schuening won't impress with great athleticism, but he is a fighter inside who uses great technique and desire, outworking defenders. Great footwork and strong anchor keeps him from getting run over or run by in pass protection.He has outstanding leadership qualities and attitude, and is the kind of tough player ever NFL team wants. The former Beaver has decent range despite not having great quickness. However, he struggles to hit moving targets on the second level when pulling. Schuening is not a violent hitter or explosive off the ball, although he is rarely out of position and uses his frame effectively to wall defenders. Although he lacks ideal physical tools, Schuening's record against top-level competition speaks for itself. He could come off the board as early as the third round.
4. Eric Young 6-4 305 Tennessee
Young played out of position at tackle more of his college career and as a result, scouts aren't sure just what they will get from the former Volunteer. In addition, Young tore his quadriceps muscle after 8 games and was lost for the season. If he checks out medically, he will still have some upside. Young's best attribute is his excellent upper body strength and initial burst. His time at tackle has given him above average pass protection skills for a guard as he slides well laterally and uses his hands well. Young does not have great athletic ability overall and struggles in space. That could mean problems being effective on the second level when pulling. Questions about durability and his true position are large concerns at this point for Eric Young. The bottom line is, we just don't really know what we'll get from him, or where he belongs. If his legs check out and he can stay healthy, he has the potential to be a solid starter at guard in the NFL. For that reason, he could go late third, but more than likely will fall to the fourth.
5. Michael McGlynn 6-5 315 Pittsburgh
McGlynn also played tackle most of his career at Pitt, although he played several games at guard his senior season. Deficiencies on the edge mean a position shift could be in McGlynn's future. He was excellent against bull rushers on the corners and plays with a solid anchor in pass sets. However, he does not have overwhelming strength or power, and lacks initial pop. The former Pitt Panthers has a great motor and will fight until the whistle. He has the ability to lock onto defenders and hold his ground. He does not take many false steps and has adequate, but not excellent initial quickness off the line. As a run blocker, McGlynn takes solid angles but his ability to make blocks in space is a question mark. He also has the ability to generate a good push playing with solid leverage rather than relying on brute strength. Unlike Young, McGlynn has been extremely durable and has a great attitude and motor. He also he versatility being able to play either guard slot or right tackle. Expect McGlynn to fall in the fourth round area.
Centers
1. Mike Pollak 6-4 299 Arizona State
Pollak's athleticism ranks as high as any in this draft at any line position. ASU moved him all over the field, pulling him to utilize his quickness and agility. For a center, that means even more because he must snap the ball and then move. As a second level blocker, Pollak is just as effective as he is up front, consistently getting his man in space. He does not possess outstanding strength and could struggle in a power running system where he is consistently asked to take on 340 pound nose tackles. Despite that, he does display excellent initial punch and push in the run game. In pass protection, Pollak does a effective job playing with balance and good knee-bend. He has the intelligence to get schemes right and recognize blitzes. He will really fit in well in a zone blocking system and is a top 50 player based on his athleticism and intangibles. That means a second round talent, but don't be surprised if he falls to the late second or even third round.
2. Steven Justice 6-3 289 Wake Forest
Justice and Pollak are very similar players and it wouldn't be surprising if teams had Justice ranked ahead of Pollak. Much like Pollak, Justice's biggest strength is his quickness and ability to work down the line. He gets in position efficiently and uses solid technique to wall defenders. Justice has the awareness to make pre-snap reads and adjustments. Justice will lock on and sustain blocks until the whistle and is always looking to get to the second level to knock people out. The biggest difference between Justice and Pollak is that Justice sometimes struggles getting his arms extended, particularly in combo blocks. Justice has struggled with consistency at times. He also lacks the strength to take on nose tackles. He started 39 consecutive games at Wake and played against some excellent defensive lines in the ACC. Like Pollak, Justice is best suited for a zone scheme and has enough ability to start with time. Justice projects as a third round pick, but a team who values him ahead of Pollak in need of a center, may take him in the late second.
3. John Sullivan 6-3 301 Notre Dame
This Golden Domer has some of the qualities guys like Justice and Pollak lack. Sullivan plays with excellent leverage and rarely gets pushed back once locked on. In addition, Sullivan has better size and strength. He has a strong anchor, giving him a better chance against power rushers inside and plays with incredible passion. Unfortunately for Sullivan, he does not have the kind of mobility as the guys ahead of him. He plays off-balance at time and will lunge a little too much. Interestingly, he is an effective cut blocker, but scouts believe he falls in love with the cut and gets lazy at times. A disappointing senior season has not kept Sullivan out of the top three center prospects, which speaks both to his abilities and the depth of the position in 2008. Sullivans strength and passion compared to the undersized center ahead of him, will make him attractive to many teams because of his ability to play in multiple offensive systems. Sullivan is a late third round early fourth round talent and he will likely go somewhere in the mid-rounds.
4. Cody Wallace 6-4 296 Texas A&M
If you were to go teach the center position, Wallace would not be the guy to look at. However, Wallace has great football knowledge and awareness and always seems to be in position. He also plays with a nasty attitude and loves to fight in the trenches. He does take false steps and can play out of control at times, lunging at defenders. His play at A&M was erratic, but no one ever questioned his desire or intensity. Wallace possesses tremendous upper body strength and once he latches on, he has the ability to sustain to the whistle. While not superiorly built in terms of size, Wallace plays with a wide, strong base and can match-up with bigger, physical players inside. Recognizes the blitz well, but Wallace lacks the athletic ability to get in proper position against quicker players and that is when he gets in trouble lunging. There is simply no denying his 36 straight starts playing in the physical Big 12 Conference against some of the best defenses in the nation. Wallace has some starting potential, but has limited upside. That makes him a late fourth round or fifth round pick.
5. Kory Lichtensteiger 6-2 298 Bowling Green
While the term "overachiever" seems overused and poorly defined, we can loosely apply it to this 4 year starter. Lichtensteiger plays with an attitude, working hard and not giving up on plays. He has solid intangibles and uses his technique to mask his lack of athletic ability. He has good punch,but not tremendous strength overall. By taking good angles, he can mask his lack of range athletically, but Lichtensteiger gets into position efficiently and can get to the second level. While he has strength, he isn't going to re-direct defenders with consistently. His balance and anchor helps him against bull rushers, but he will struggle inside against the kind of massive d-tackles in the NFL. Lichtensteiger has some athletic limitations, but he understands them and has excellent knowledge and awareness. What you see is what you get to some degree as his upside is limited. However, he has experience at guard and center and that versatility will give him better value for teams looking to add overall depth along the line. He probably comes off the board in the fifth round.
Guards
1. Brandon Albert 6-6 309 Virginia
Albert's stock has risen considerably this season and now represents the only first round prospect along the interior. He uses his gargantuan frame and extremely long arms to keep defenders at bay. The problem is he lacks explosion and punch when making contact and isn't going to blow anyone off the line. For a man his size, Albert possesses excellent footwork and quickness in space. His mean streak and demeanor do not necessarily translate into physicality, but he is tough and versatile. Albert gets to the second level well and flashes the ability to hit moving targets when pulling around the corner. Much like former Cav D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Albert is a much better pass blocker than run blocker at this point. He does utilize outstanding technique and it can get him off balance at times. In addition, Albert seems to take plays off if he isn't play side and can't necessarily be counted on to hustle down field to throw a second or third block. Some experience at tackle gives him added versatility and appeal for teams. Albert will likely be the first interior lineman selected and a team like Pittsburgh could take him late in the first round.
2. Chilo Rachal 6-4 313 USC
Rachal possesses a significantly different skill set than Albert. The former USC Trojan is a powerful drive blocker who can get good push up front. While he is not as athletic as Albert, Rachal can turn the corner and will engulf smaller defenders like linebackers and safeties on sweeps and traps. As a pass blocker, Rachal has a solid anchor and will not get pushed back into the pocket by power rushers inside. He uses his smarts and awareness to pick up stunts and blitzes. On the other hand, he lacks ideal athleticism and will struggle against double moves particularly when nimble rush ends come inside. Utilizes solid technique overall, but does not cut-block effectively. In addition, if his defender is not where he "should" be, rather than getting in position, Rachal has a tendency to lunge and get off balance. Rachal will not be right in all offensive systems and could have used another year of polishing at USC. However, he is one of the few top-level prospects at the position and will come likely come off the board in the second round.
3. Roy Schuening 6-4 317 Oregon State
The most experienced player on this list, Schuening was a four year starter at Oregon State, playing a school record 50 consecutive games. He even started at tackle due to injuries, giving him added versatility on the next level. Schuening won't impress with great athleticism, but he is a fighter inside who uses great technique and desire, outworking defenders. Great footwork and strong anchor keeps him from getting run over or run by in pass protection.He has outstanding leadership qualities and attitude, and is the kind of tough player ever NFL team wants. The former Beaver has decent range despite not having great quickness. However, he struggles to hit moving targets on the second level when pulling. Schuening is not a violent hitter or explosive off the ball, although he is rarely out of position and uses his frame effectively to wall defenders. Although he lacks ideal physical tools, Schuening's record against top-level competition speaks for itself. He could come off the board as early as the third round.
4. Eric Young 6-4 305 Tennessee
Young played out of position at tackle more of his college career and as a result, scouts aren't sure just what they will get from the former Volunteer. In addition, Young tore his quadriceps muscle after 8 games and was lost for the season. If he checks out medically, he will still have some upside. Young's best attribute is his excellent upper body strength and initial burst. His time at tackle has given him above average pass protection skills for a guard as he slides well laterally and uses his hands well. Young does not have great athletic ability overall and struggles in space. That could mean problems being effective on the second level when pulling. Questions about durability and his true position are large concerns at this point for Eric Young. The bottom line is, we just don't really know what we'll get from him, or where he belongs. If his legs check out and he can stay healthy, he has the potential to be a solid starter at guard in the NFL. For that reason, he could go late third, but more than likely will fall to the fourth.
5. Michael McGlynn 6-5 315 Pittsburgh
McGlynn also played tackle most of his career at Pitt, although he played several games at guard his senior season. Deficiencies on the edge mean a position shift could be in McGlynn's future. He was excellent against bull rushers on the corners and plays with a solid anchor in pass sets. However, he does not have overwhelming strength or power, and lacks initial pop. The former Pitt Panthers has a great motor and will fight until the whistle. He has the ability to lock onto defenders and hold his ground. He does not take many false steps and has adequate, but not excellent initial quickness off the line. As a run blocker, McGlynn takes solid angles but his ability to make blocks in space is a question mark. He also has the ability to generate a good push playing with solid leverage rather than relying on brute strength. Unlike Young, McGlynn has been extremely durable and has a great attitude and motor. He also he versatility being able to play either guard slot or right tackle. Expect McGlynn to fall in the fourth round area.
Centers
1. Mike Pollak 6-4 299 Arizona State
Pollak's athleticism ranks as high as any in this draft at any line position. ASU moved him all over the field, pulling him to utilize his quickness and agility. For a center, that means even more because he must snap the ball and then move. As a second level blocker, Pollak is just as effective as he is up front, consistently getting his man in space. He does not possess outstanding strength and could struggle in a power running system where he is consistently asked to take on 340 pound nose tackles. Despite that, he does display excellent initial punch and push in the run game. In pass protection, Pollak does a effective job playing with balance and good knee-bend. He has the intelligence to get schemes right and recognize blitzes. He will really fit in well in a zone blocking system and is a top 50 player based on his athleticism and intangibles. That means a second round talent, but don't be surprised if he falls to the late second or even third round.
2. Steven Justice 6-3 289 Wake Forest
Justice and Pollak are very similar players and it wouldn't be surprising if teams had Justice ranked ahead of Pollak. Much like Pollak, Justice's biggest strength is his quickness and ability to work down the line. He gets in position efficiently and uses solid technique to wall defenders. Justice has the awareness to make pre-snap reads and adjustments. Justice will lock on and sustain blocks until the whistle and is always looking to get to the second level to knock people out. The biggest difference between Justice and Pollak is that Justice sometimes struggles getting his arms extended, particularly in combo blocks. Justice has struggled with consistency at times. He also lacks the strength to take on nose tackles. He started 39 consecutive games at Wake and played against some excellent defensive lines in the ACC. Like Pollak, Justice is best suited for a zone scheme and has enough ability to start with time. Justice projects as a third round pick, but a team who values him ahead of Pollak in need of a center, may take him in the late second.
3. John Sullivan 6-3 301 Notre Dame
This Golden Domer has some of the qualities guys like Justice and Pollak lack. Sullivan plays with excellent leverage and rarely gets pushed back once locked on. In addition, Sullivan has better size and strength. He has a strong anchor, giving him a better chance against power rushers inside and plays with incredible passion. Unfortunately for Sullivan, he does not have the kind of mobility as the guys ahead of him. He plays off-balance at time and will lunge a little too much. Interestingly, he is an effective cut blocker, but scouts believe he falls in love with the cut and gets lazy at times. A disappointing senior season has not kept Sullivan out of the top three center prospects, which speaks both to his abilities and the depth of the position in 2008. Sullivans strength and passion compared to the undersized center ahead of him, will make him attractive to many teams because of his ability to play in multiple offensive systems. Sullivan is a late third round early fourth round talent and he will likely go somewhere in the mid-rounds.
4. Cody Wallace 6-4 296 Texas A&M
If you were to go teach the center position, Wallace would not be the guy to look at. However, Wallace has great football knowledge and awareness and always seems to be in position. He also plays with a nasty attitude and loves to fight in the trenches. He does take false steps and can play out of control at times, lunging at defenders. His play at A&M was erratic, but no one ever questioned his desire or intensity. Wallace possesses tremendous upper body strength and once he latches on, he has the ability to sustain to the whistle. While not superiorly built in terms of size, Wallace plays with a wide, strong base and can match-up with bigger, physical players inside. Recognizes the blitz well, but Wallace lacks the athletic ability to get in proper position against quicker players and that is when he gets in trouble lunging. There is simply no denying his 36 straight starts playing in the physical Big 12 Conference against some of the best defenses in the nation. Wallace has some starting potential, but has limited upside. That makes him a late fourth round or fifth round pick.
5. Kory Lichtensteiger 6-2 298 Bowling Green
While the term "overachiever" seems overused and poorly defined, we can loosely apply it to this 4 year starter. Lichtensteiger plays with an attitude, working hard and not giving up on plays. He has solid intangibles and uses his technique to mask his lack of athletic ability. He has good punch,but not tremendous strength overall. By taking good angles, he can mask his lack of range athletically, but Lichtensteiger gets into position efficiently and can get to the second level. While he has strength, he isn't going to re-direct defenders with consistently. His balance and anchor helps him against bull rushers, but he will struggle inside against the kind of massive d-tackles in the NFL. Lichtensteiger has some athletic limitations, but he understands them and has excellent knowledge and awareness. What you see is what you get to some degree as his upside is limited. However, he has experience at guard and center and that versatility will give him better value for teams looking to add overall depth along the line. He probably comes off the board in the fifth round.
Sunday, March 9, 2008
NFL Draft Preview: Offensive Tackle
Offensive tackle is one of the deepest positions in this year's draft. Jake Long is a top 3 prospect and will draw consideration from the Miami Dolphins with the #1 overall pick. Between four and six tackles could be taken in the first round as the position is both deep and talented at the top. Team ssee the Giants and San Diego drawing on a top-flight pass rush to win. That model has a two-fold result: Teams will be looking to bolster their pass rush and mirror that success. Secondly, teams will look to improve their offensive lines to protect against those disruptive defenses. Championship contending teams like Patriots, Giants, Packers, Chargers, and Colts all have premium offensive lines, particularly on the corners, and it is no secret that the key to winning games is strong offensive line play. That is the reason a team like the Falcons might prefer to draft Jake Long than either Matt Ryan or Darren McFadden. The 2008 class has a good mix of left tackle and right tackle prospects, as well as a number of guys who can play either side. The group is highlighted by two top 10 overall prospects Jake Long and Ryan Clady.
1.) Jake Long 6-7 313 Michigan The consensus top offensive lineman in the draft, Long's stock has risen even higher since the combine. Long dominated workouts, putting up a position best 37 reps of 225 and was third in the 3 cone drill. He was an All-American at Michigan protecting Chad Henne's blindside, but could play either right or left tackle in the NFL. Long is a technician when blocking and plays with great knee-bend. As a run-blocker, he takes excellent angles to defenders and walls them off with that massive frame. At this point, Long is a better run blocker than pass blocker, which speaks to both his talent in the run game as well as some deficiencies in pass protection. Long is a mauler can dominate in the run game. However, he is not a great natural athlete and his quickness to the outside is not elite. He gets back in his pass sets quickly, but guys like Vernon Gholston who can get to the edge in a hurry will give him problems. Long actually lost weight when Michigan went to the zone-blocking system and with his frame, he could play in just about any system. Long probably belongs on the right side, but certainly could play either RT or LT. He is not quite to the level of Joe Thomas, but is a top 5 player in the draft and could go in the top 3.
2.) Ryan Clady 6-6 309 Boise State
Jake Long may be the top offensive line in this year's draft, but Ryan Clady is certainly not far behind. Clady declared as a junior and had he stayed in school would have likely been the first offensive lineman taken in 2009. Clady has the potential to be an even better pass-protector than Jake Long. The former Bronco has tremendous quickness getting in his pass sets. He shows the ability to mirror pass rushers even on multiple moves. Clady, unlike Long, will not struggle with speed rushers and bends his knees extremely well. Despite his size, Clady could get stronger in his lower body. He does not always drive effectively in the run game. That is partially a result of his tendency to lunge and overextend himself. At this point, Clady's inexperience may be his biggest weakness. He can get rattled and has not played against top competition. Clady may be the best true left tackle prospect in the draft. He will likely go in the top 10 and there is almost no way he'd fall outside of the top 15.
3.) Chris Williams 6-6 315 Vanderbilt
Williams has been a fast-rising prospect all season long. He has a huge frame that he uses to swallow smaller defenders. He uses his hands extremely well and can lock on. Played some guard at Vandy and as such has tremendous lateral quickness and excellent feet. Despite his work inside, Williams has a tendency to play a little soft at times and lacks a killer instinct. He isn't a crushing blocker and has somewhat of a finesse game. Part of the problem is that Williams must put on weight and add strength to be a consistent run blocker. Williams put up only 21 reps of 225 at the combine, significantly lower than the Combine best 37 by Jake Long and Ohio State's Vernon Gholston. However, that lack of testable strength has not held him back in terms of production. Williams played extremely well in the SEC this past season and had a very strong showing at the combine. With his ability to use his hands and arms to position defenders, his lack of strength is negated to some degree. Williams has a ton of upside if he can add more strength. He is a top 15 player right now, and will go somewhere between picks 12-20 in the first round.
4.) Jeffrey Otah 6-6 322 Pittsburgh
Otah is on the other end of the spectrum from the aforementioned Williams. The Nigerian-born Otah is an absolute mauler and plays with the kind of physicality you need from an NFL right tackle. He flashes the ability to dominate in the run game, moving defensive ends wherever he wants. Once he locks on, it is pretty much over for the defender. From an athletic standpoint, Otah leaves something to be desired. For a man his size, he is relatively agile, but may not have the lateral quickness to stay with speed rushers on the left side in the NFL. In addition, Otah lacks ideal experience and technique. As a result, he is relatively unpolished. However, with a little coaching, Otah has as high a ceiling as any offensive line prospect in the draft. Even with improved technique, he probably still cannot play on the left side in the NFL. As a right tackle prospect, Otah has excellent upside and has every physical tool you want to see. May not be an ideal fit for all offensive schemes, but one of the teams from 15-31 in the first round will likely find a place for him.
5.) Sam Baker 6-5 309 USC
Gosder Cherilus has gained considerable momentum since his strong showing in post-season workouts and the Senior Bowl, however Sam Baker was the #2 OT to start the season and really has not played his way out of the top five. The only reason he has fallen to this point is the idea that he does not have ideal strength or physicality. Ask the defensive ends in the Pac-10 if Sam Baker can block; I'm not sure you'll walk away thinking he ought to fall even this far. Baker has tremendous feet and agility in pass protection. His ability to slide laterally makes him particularly frustrating for speed rushers and ends who like to use swim and spin moves. Baker has played on some of the best teams in the country and in a pro-style system. You won't ask Baker to drive block his man off the ball, he can can protect a QB's blindside. While he lacks outstanding strength and physicality, Baker's feet and athleticism give him Pro Bowl type ability. Teams, particularly those who run zone offenses, will covet Baker. He could go late in the first round to a team like Green Bay. If not, he will likely be the first offensive lineman taken in the second round.
6.) Gosder Cherilus 6-6 314 Boston College
There is no reason why Cherilus cannot be a premier offensive tackle in the NFL. That being said, when you look at his physical skills, there is no reason why he shouldn't have been absolutely dominant at BC and he wasn't. Cherilus is strong and powerful at the point of attack, flashing the ability drive his man back. He has nimble feet and good balance, allowing him to get good position and hold his ground. He is a smart player with good awareness on the field, but was arrested for assault last summer so his smarts off the field have been questioned. Cherilus has struggled with speed rushers and likely belongs on the right side in the NFL. In terms of technique, Cherilus uses his hands well and does not take very many false steps. The biggest issue Cherilus has is he plays with poor leverage and does not bend his knees well. That leads him to play too high and in doing so, can negate his strength and power. Cherilus may not be the top 3 prospect he appeared to be at the beginning of his senior season, but he has too many physical skills to fall down the list too far. He is a borderline first round pick, and likely will not fall out of the top 10 or 15 picks in the second round.
7.) Carl Nicks 6-5 341 Nebraska
Carl Nicks is one of the biggest players in the draft at any position. Unlike Cherilus, Nicks uses his body effectively and plays with solid leverage. Cherilus gets away with it because he uses better technique than Nicks. The former Husker has a tendency to play under the level of his physical attributes because he does not use his hands as effectively as he could. Nicks showed well at the combine and appeared more athletic in drills than he did at Nebraska. If Nicks has dedicated himself to improving his lateral quickness and his overall technique, his ceiling as a RT is extremely high. He already shows excellent punch in the run game just using his raw power and upper-body strength. If coached properly, Nicks could turn out to be a solid player at right tackle in the NFL. While he is certainly not at the level of Clady or Long, Nicks will likely go in second round.
8.) Anthony Collins 6-5 317 Kansas
Another right tackle prospect with outstanding physical tools, this Kansas All-American has ridden his team's breakout success and turned it into first day draft potential. Collins, much like Kansas, does not have a ton of experience in the spotlight. Collins could have benefited from another year at Kansas improving his technique and playing against most top-level competition in the Big-12. In his two years starting however he has played both tackle spots and could play either in the NFL, although he probably best suited to play right tackle on Sundays. He uses his long arms to ride defenders out of areas. He does not possess great technique and is inconsistent getting proper anchor in his sets. When he does play with balance, Collins is a wall and effectively uses his massive frame to shield and even wipe out defenders. His poor technique means poor footwork and he does not have the quickness to stay with speed rushers, or mirror double-moves. At this point, his physical attributes give up enough upside to fit into the late second round, but could fall to the third.
9.) Duane Brown 6-4 315 Virginia Tech
Here is where this position gets somewhat convoluted. The talent level drops off and as a result, a teams style or preferences become much more important when scouting players. Brown is a former tight end, who made the switch to tackle in 2005. Brown still possesses a ton of quickness and agility and uses his athletic ability effectively, particularly in pass protection. His lateral quickness and long arms allow him to wall off the corner and speed rushers won't bother him. He can slide with speed rushers, but certainly will have to get stronger to deal with bull rushers. In terms of weaknesses, Brown's game has a long way to go as a run blocker. He still hasn't learned how to take effective angles to wall off defenders, or use solid technique when asked to do different things like cut. His knowledge of the position must improve as he struggles with stunts, protection slides, and blitz pick up. Teams looking employing zone blocking systems will love this kid's upside, while power running teams may view him as a project in a more pejorative sense. He is somewhat of a project, but has the kind of upside to land him in the third round.
10.) Oniel Cousins 6-4 308 U.T.E.P.
A player like Cousins could be a 3rd round tackle prospect on some boards, while a 5th round guard prospect on others. Cousins is a raw prospect, who made the switch from defensive tackle in 2005 at UTEP and just where he'll play in the NFL is unclear. His technique is not outstanding and he is still learning how to use his body effectively. However, Cousins is a stellar athlete with excellent quickness and agility. He can get to the second level and does a good job of hitting moving targets in space. Cousins' bulk could be improved, hopefully without losing too much from his quickness. Right now, he uses his feet effectively to mirror pass-rushers, a place his experience on the defensive line will certainly help. He must get stronger to deal with bull rushers on the outside, and that lack of strength probably prevents him from moving inside to guard on the next level as he won't be able to handle the types of enormous nose tackles he could potentially face. One of the better athletes along the offensive line, Cousins could go in the third or fourth round.
1.) Jake Long 6-7 313 Michigan The consensus top offensive lineman in the draft, Long's stock has risen even higher since the combine. Long dominated workouts, putting up a position best 37 reps of 225 and was third in the 3 cone drill. He was an All-American at Michigan protecting Chad Henne's blindside, but could play either right or left tackle in the NFL. Long is a technician when blocking and plays with great knee-bend. As a run-blocker, he takes excellent angles to defenders and walls them off with that massive frame. At this point, Long is a better run blocker than pass blocker, which speaks to both his talent in the run game as well as some deficiencies in pass protection. Long is a mauler can dominate in the run game. However, he is not a great natural athlete and his quickness to the outside is not elite. He gets back in his pass sets quickly, but guys like Vernon Gholston who can get to the edge in a hurry will give him problems. Long actually lost weight when Michigan went to the zone-blocking system and with his frame, he could play in just about any system. Long probably belongs on the right side, but certainly could play either RT or LT. He is not quite to the level of Joe Thomas, but is a top 5 player in the draft and could go in the top 3.
2.) Ryan Clady 6-6 309 Boise State
Jake Long may be the top offensive line in this year's draft, but Ryan Clady is certainly not far behind. Clady declared as a junior and had he stayed in school would have likely been the first offensive lineman taken in 2009. Clady has the potential to be an even better pass-protector than Jake Long. The former Bronco has tremendous quickness getting in his pass sets. He shows the ability to mirror pass rushers even on multiple moves. Clady, unlike Long, will not struggle with speed rushers and bends his knees extremely well. Despite his size, Clady could get stronger in his lower body. He does not always drive effectively in the run game. That is partially a result of his tendency to lunge and overextend himself. At this point, Clady's inexperience may be his biggest weakness. He can get rattled and has not played against top competition. Clady may be the best true left tackle prospect in the draft. He will likely go in the top 10 and there is almost no way he'd fall outside of the top 15.
3.) Chris Williams 6-6 315 Vanderbilt
Williams has been a fast-rising prospect all season long. He has a huge frame that he uses to swallow smaller defenders. He uses his hands extremely well and can lock on. Played some guard at Vandy and as such has tremendous lateral quickness and excellent feet. Despite his work inside, Williams has a tendency to play a little soft at times and lacks a killer instinct. He isn't a crushing blocker and has somewhat of a finesse game. Part of the problem is that Williams must put on weight and add strength to be a consistent run blocker. Williams put up only 21 reps of 225 at the combine, significantly lower than the Combine best 37 by Jake Long and Ohio State's Vernon Gholston. However, that lack of testable strength has not held him back in terms of production. Williams played extremely well in the SEC this past season and had a very strong showing at the combine. With his ability to use his hands and arms to position defenders, his lack of strength is negated to some degree. Williams has a ton of upside if he can add more strength. He is a top 15 player right now, and will go somewhere between picks 12-20 in the first round.
4.) Jeffrey Otah 6-6 322 Pittsburgh
Otah is on the other end of the spectrum from the aforementioned Williams. The Nigerian-born Otah is an absolute mauler and plays with the kind of physicality you need from an NFL right tackle. He flashes the ability to dominate in the run game, moving defensive ends wherever he wants. Once he locks on, it is pretty much over for the defender. From an athletic standpoint, Otah leaves something to be desired. For a man his size, he is relatively agile, but may not have the lateral quickness to stay with speed rushers on the left side in the NFL. In addition, Otah lacks ideal experience and technique. As a result, he is relatively unpolished. However, with a little coaching, Otah has as high a ceiling as any offensive line prospect in the draft. Even with improved technique, he probably still cannot play on the left side in the NFL. As a right tackle prospect, Otah has excellent upside and has every physical tool you want to see. May not be an ideal fit for all offensive schemes, but one of the teams from 15-31 in the first round will likely find a place for him.
5.) Sam Baker 6-5 309 USC
Gosder Cherilus has gained considerable momentum since his strong showing in post-season workouts and the Senior Bowl, however Sam Baker was the #2 OT to start the season and really has not played his way out of the top five. The only reason he has fallen to this point is the idea that he does not have ideal strength or physicality. Ask the defensive ends in the Pac-10 if Sam Baker can block; I'm not sure you'll walk away thinking he ought to fall even this far. Baker has tremendous feet and agility in pass protection. His ability to slide laterally makes him particularly frustrating for speed rushers and ends who like to use swim and spin moves. Baker has played on some of the best teams in the country and in a pro-style system. You won't ask Baker to drive block his man off the ball, he can can protect a QB's blindside. While he lacks outstanding strength and physicality, Baker's feet and athleticism give him Pro Bowl type ability. Teams, particularly those who run zone offenses, will covet Baker. He could go late in the first round to a team like Green Bay. If not, he will likely be the first offensive lineman taken in the second round.
6.) Gosder Cherilus 6-6 314 Boston College
There is no reason why Cherilus cannot be a premier offensive tackle in the NFL. That being said, when you look at his physical skills, there is no reason why he shouldn't have been absolutely dominant at BC and he wasn't. Cherilus is strong and powerful at the point of attack, flashing the ability drive his man back. He has nimble feet and good balance, allowing him to get good position and hold his ground. He is a smart player with good awareness on the field, but was arrested for assault last summer so his smarts off the field have been questioned. Cherilus has struggled with speed rushers and likely belongs on the right side in the NFL. In terms of technique, Cherilus uses his hands well and does not take very many false steps. The biggest issue Cherilus has is he plays with poor leverage and does not bend his knees well. That leads him to play too high and in doing so, can negate his strength and power. Cherilus may not be the top 3 prospect he appeared to be at the beginning of his senior season, but he has too many physical skills to fall down the list too far. He is a borderline first round pick, and likely will not fall out of the top 10 or 15 picks in the second round.
7.) Carl Nicks 6-5 341 Nebraska
Carl Nicks is one of the biggest players in the draft at any position. Unlike Cherilus, Nicks uses his body effectively and plays with solid leverage. Cherilus gets away with it because he uses better technique than Nicks. The former Husker has a tendency to play under the level of his physical attributes because he does not use his hands as effectively as he could. Nicks showed well at the combine and appeared more athletic in drills than he did at Nebraska. If Nicks has dedicated himself to improving his lateral quickness and his overall technique, his ceiling as a RT is extremely high. He already shows excellent punch in the run game just using his raw power and upper-body strength. If coached properly, Nicks could turn out to be a solid player at right tackle in the NFL. While he is certainly not at the level of Clady or Long, Nicks will likely go in second round.
8.) Anthony Collins 6-5 317 Kansas
Another right tackle prospect with outstanding physical tools, this Kansas All-American has ridden his team's breakout success and turned it into first day draft potential. Collins, much like Kansas, does not have a ton of experience in the spotlight. Collins could have benefited from another year at Kansas improving his technique and playing against most top-level competition in the Big-12. In his two years starting however he has played both tackle spots and could play either in the NFL, although he probably best suited to play right tackle on Sundays. He uses his long arms to ride defenders out of areas. He does not possess great technique and is inconsistent getting proper anchor in his sets. When he does play with balance, Collins is a wall and effectively uses his massive frame to shield and even wipe out defenders. His poor technique means poor footwork and he does not have the quickness to stay with speed rushers, or mirror double-moves. At this point, his physical attributes give up enough upside to fit into the late second round, but could fall to the third.
9.) Duane Brown 6-4 315 Virginia Tech
Here is where this position gets somewhat convoluted. The talent level drops off and as a result, a teams style or preferences become much more important when scouting players. Brown is a former tight end, who made the switch to tackle in 2005. Brown still possesses a ton of quickness and agility and uses his athletic ability effectively, particularly in pass protection. His lateral quickness and long arms allow him to wall off the corner and speed rushers won't bother him. He can slide with speed rushers, but certainly will have to get stronger to deal with bull rushers. In terms of weaknesses, Brown's game has a long way to go as a run blocker. He still hasn't learned how to take effective angles to wall off defenders, or use solid technique when asked to do different things like cut. His knowledge of the position must improve as he struggles with stunts, protection slides, and blitz pick up. Teams looking employing zone blocking systems will love this kid's upside, while power running teams may view him as a project in a more pejorative sense. He is somewhat of a project, but has the kind of upside to land him in the third round.
10.) Oniel Cousins 6-4 308 U.T.E.P.
A player like Cousins could be a 3rd round tackle prospect on some boards, while a 5th round guard prospect on others. Cousins is a raw prospect, who made the switch from defensive tackle in 2005 at UTEP and just where he'll play in the NFL is unclear. His technique is not outstanding and he is still learning how to use his body effectively. However, Cousins is a stellar athlete with excellent quickness and agility. He can get to the second level and does a good job of hitting moving targets in space. Cousins' bulk could be improved, hopefully without losing too much from his quickness. Right now, he uses his feet effectively to mirror pass-rushers, a place his experience on the defensive line will certainly help. He must get stronger to deal with bull rushers on the outside, and that lack of strength probably prevents him from moving inside to guard on the next level as he won't be able to handle the types of enormous nose tackles he could potentially face. One of the better athletes along the offensive line, Cousins could go in the third or fourth round.
Monday, March 3, 2008
NFL Draft Preview: Inside Linebackers
Middle linebackers are considerably easier to rank than outside linebackers because responsibilities are relatively homogeneous across teams. Unlike the weak and strong side, where different systems require very different skill sets, the middle linebacker has a certain different standard. The leader in the middle must make sure players are aligned correctly, read plays quickly, and play more physically than most outside 'backers. Patrick Willis was the Defensive Rookie of the Year last year after a remarkable rookie season. Willis was a top 10 prospect coming out and blew scouts away with his athletic ability. The 2008 draft class lacks that elite prospect at linebacker, either middle or outside. However, a number of productive and talented players make this class deep in the middle rounds. Much like Keith Rivers, the only way Dan Connor falls from the top spot between now and April is injury, or a horrific showing at Penn State's Pro Day.
1.) Dan Connor 6-3 233 Penn State
The NFL Combine was somewhat anticlimactic for linebackers as neither Keith Rivers nor Dan Connor took part. As of now, Connor is still the top rated inside linebacker in the class and unless he runs a higher than expected 40 at the Penn State Pro Day, he should stay that way. A strong showing in Happy Valley could mean Connor would move up from the bottom of the first round to the middle. Teams like Denver were drooling over Connor at the Senior Bowl and Big Ten fans know why. Just the latest in the line of great linebackers from "Linebacker U" and like those before him, he plays with great instinct and awareness in the run game. He reads his keys extremely quickly and can move laterally in a hurry to make it to the ball carrier. Connor breaks down in space effectively and is an extremely reliable tackler. His hips are somewhat stiff and his ability to change directions, turn and run, with tight ends or backs could be a concern at the next level. He could stand to put on some weight, and he must make sure he does not lose any athleticism from his already less than stellar credentials. Connor is in a position to really help himself in a few weeks in front of the scouts. A strong performance should land him somewhere between 10-25 in the first round.
2.) Jerod Mayo 6-1 242 Tennessee
Mayo is one of the fastest rising prospects in the draft since declaring early for the NFL Draft. His aggressive play and hard hitting mentality lead to great production in the SEC against the best teams in the nation. Mayo can be explosive at times, stoning full backs in the hole as well as laying out receivers coming across the middle. While not overly effective changing directions, he doe show fluid hips and blew scouts away with a 4.54 40 at the Combine. His biggest attributes also have been his weakness. He can be over-aggressive at times, leading him to bite on play-action fakes as well as double moves in coverage. He is a player with top-level motor and is relentless in pursuit. Mayo put on nearly 15 pounds for the NFL Combine and lost nothing from his speed. While he still does not have the lower body strength to be a prototypical run-stuffing middle linebacker, Mayo is athletic and explosive. With big bodies in front of him, Mayo could be a terror and should go in the mid to late second round.
3.) Curtis Lofton 6-0 246 Oklahoma The position seems a little cloudy at this juncture. While Connor seems to be the unanimous #1 player at the position, 2-10 can all be argued and teams will no doubt have discrepancies among top prospects. Curtis Lofton could be the top prospect behind Connor, but the two have different skill sets and thus teams will place value differently depending on the defensive system. Unlike Mayo, Lofton lacks top-end speed to turn and run with tight ends and backs. Lofton's game is predicated on awareness and reads. Lofton is an expert at diagnosing and then attacking. Once he gets to the ball carrier, this guy will unload. He can bring serious wood and does so with pleasure. He is the best run-stuffing linebacker in the top 3 of either linebacker position. On the other hand, his hips are somewhat stiff in coverage and his 4.78 shows his lack of top end speed in man coverage. Lofton's overall skill set seem perfect for the middle linebacker position, while players like Mayo and Tavares Gooden could play outside. Those skills should land him in the second round.
4.) Phillip Wheeler 6-2 248 Georgia Tech In terms of physical skills, Wheeler has everything you could ask for from a middle linebacker. He has a strong, thick body, and good speed. He flashes the ability to run through blockers on the way to the ball carrier, as well as engage and shed blocks. He plays aggressively and with energy, however he relies too heavily on his quickness and often over-pursues. He lacks fluidity in his hips to turn and run with backs and tight ends, as well as the physicality to be disruptive. He was a leader at Georgia Tech, but with so many physical tools, he either lacks the desire or the ability to be more effective in coverage. He does not have the strength to be a run-stuffer or the ball skills to be a cover backer. May not be a true middle linebacker in the NFL and that lack of definition could be a negative in the eyes of some talent evaluators. Wheeler has solid instincts, good speed, and is an effective tackler. A team late in round 2 or early in round 3 will take a chance on a guy with this kind of athletic ability and potential.
5.) Tavares Gooden 6-1 234 Miami (Fla.)
Tavares Gooden has experience at all three linebacker positions and with his athleticism, he could play any of them in the NFL. In terms of athletic ability, he has incredible fluidity and range of movement, both attacking in the run game, and dropping in the passing game. He uses his great speed (4.65 40) to close on ball carriers, and explodes on impact. While he does not possess outstanding instincts or body awareness, he seems to find his way to the ball, whether he reads his keys effectively or not. For that reason, he may fit better on the outside in the NFL. Furthermore, he is undersized to play the middle, but this guy is a dedicated, hard-working player who will commit to getting stronger and bigger. If he can do that, and improve his anchor, his skills in coverage will mean he can be an every-down player on Sundays. Has a chance to follow in the footsteps of former Hurricane great LB's like Ray Lewis and Jonathan Vilma, and should go somewhere late second early third round in April.
6.) Jonathan Goff 6-2 245 Vanderbilt
Jonathan Goff has been a top 5 inside linebacker all season long. Goff's senior season was somewhat disappointing considering the high expectations, and he could have been in the top tier group with a stellar senior campaign. That being said, Goff could be a steal for whatever team takes him in the Draft. An extremely instinctive player, Goff combines size and speed when getting to the ball carrier. He uses good leverage and technique fighting off blockers and keeping them off of him as he makes his way to the ball carrier. However, the bigger blockers in the NFL might pose him problems until he improves his lower body strength. Goff is one of the few inside linebackers who can really get after the QB and shows good timing and burst across the line. Had some trouble staying with backs out of the backfield at Vandy, but his 4.63 40 time implies he has improved his quickness and at his size that shows his dedication to getting better. Goff should go in the third round, but may slip to the fourth.
7.) Beau Bell 6-1 244 UNLV
After Goff, many of the remaining player rankings will very greatly across teams. Beau Bell has been ranked all over draft boards and his good timing at the combine could have moved him up on many boards. However, he could be somewhat of a "workout warrior." Much like Ali Highsmith plays considerably faster than he timed, Bell plays slower than he times. He changes direction effectively, but his hips are not very fluid in coverage. He has limited range defending the pass and should not be asked to turn and run with tight ends. Could play over the tight end in the NFL and may be better suited there. He may also fit well in a 3-4 scheme because he uses angles effectively and can get to the quarterback with considerable force. Bell has good bulk, but must get stronger to play inside. He has one of the more developed pass rush games of any linebacker in the '08 class which would only make him more valuable to a 3-4 system. He has the awareness to cover in space and can really stick across the middle. He could be one of those "boom or busts" prospects, pardon the phrase. Sometimes showed considerable interest in Bell at the Senior Bowl and he could go in the second or third round. But he belongs in the fourth.
8.) Ben Moffitt 6-1 234 South Florida
One scout describes Ben Moffitt as, "the type of guy you hate to doubt." That essentially sums up the player he was at South Florida. Undersized and not athletically blessed, Moffitt was highly productive and lead a ferocious Bull defense. He does not great physical speed, but reads his keys quickly and reacts immediately. That helps make up for his lack of burst. He also hides his lack of speed by taking great angles to the ball. Moffitt can be engulfed by even undersized blockers and does not disengage well. When he does get a clean shot, he almost always takes it and makes the play. In terms of upside, Moffitt is limited because he is athletic as he'll ever be, and that simply isn't good enough. But don't tell him that. Moffit had almost 350 career tackles and in 2007 had 4 games in which he tallied at least 10 stops. He is the kind of guy GM's like to call "just a football player." All of the cliché phrases aside, Moffitt can play and is certainly a depending back-up and quality special teams player. He should go in the middle rounds, probably the fourth.
9.) Vince Hall 5-11 232 Virginia Tech
Unlike many of the undersized linebackers on this list, Hall plays considerably bigger than his body indicates. Hall has the strength to take on lead blockers in the hole and even the explosion to run them over and make the play. Using his instincts, he can get to the ball carrier quickly despite limited range. By reading his keys and diagnosing quickly, his lack of speed is negated to some degree. However, his lack of speed and quickness is certainly is strongest weakness. Hall struggles opening his hips and getting back in coverage. In fact, some scouts questions whether or not Hall can be an every down player. To make matters worse, Hall does not have great ball skills in coverage. Hall's ability to cut and change direction additionally hinders his dexterity in coverage. Hall has some potential as a run stuffing middle linebacker and takes good angles to the ball. However, his lack of versatility in coverage detracts from his value. Hall will probably fall to the 5th round and his experience playing "Beamer Ball" at Tech will give him enough special teams value to fall much further.
10.) Spencer Larsen 6-2 238 Arizona
Larsen, much like Hall, can really attack the line of scrimmage, but struggles in coverage. Larsen was a stand-out at the East West Shrine Game showing his instincts and aggressiveness. However, he also showed his inability to cover in space and looked lost at times. His 4.9 40 at the NFL Combine emphasizes his lack of top-end speed. Larsen is a junior and may have benefited from another year at Arizona, but how much would his stock have risen? Another year isn't going to make him faster. he is athletic now as he ever will be and that gives him limited upside. To be fair, he was productive surrounded with limited talent in one of the best conference in college football. He makes plays all over the field and certainly has a chance to be a special teams demon in his first year. Larsen may never be a starter on Sundays but will be a quality back up and special teams player. Larsen's lack of athletic ability and range means he will fall into the bottom of the 5th round and maybe even into the 6th.
1.) Dan Connor 6-3 233 Penn State
The NFL Combine was somewhat anticlimactic for linebackers as neither Keith Rivers nor Dan Connor took part. As of now, Connor is still the top rated inside linebacker in the class and unless he runs a higher than expected 40 at the Penn State Pro Day, he should stay that way. A strong showing in Happy Valley could mean Connor would move up from the bottom of the first round to the middle. Teams like Denver were drooling over Connor at the Senior Bowl and Big Ten fans know why. Just the latest in the line of great linebackers from "Linebacker U" and like those before him, he plays with great instinct and awareness in the run game. He reads his keys extremely quickly and can move laterally in a hurry to make it to the ball carrier. Connor breaks down in space effectively and is an extremely reliable tackler. His hips are somewhat stiff and his ability to change directions, turn and run, with tight ends or backs could be a concern at the next level. He could stand to put on some weight, and he must make sure he does not lose any athleticism from his already less than stellar credentials. Connor is in a position to really help himself in a few weeks in front of the scouts. A strong performance should land him somewhere between 10-25 in the first round.
2.) Jerod Mayo 6-1 242 Tennessee
Mayo is one of the fastest rising prospects in the draft since declaring early for the NFL Draft. His aggressive play and hard hitting mentality lead to great production in the SEC against the best teams in the nation. Mayo can be explosive at times, stoning full backs in the hole as well as laying out receivers coming across the middle. While not overly effective changing directions, he doe show fluid hips and blew scouts away with a 4.54 40 at the Combine. His biggest attributes also have been his weakness. He can be over-aggressive at times, leading him to bite on play-action fakes as well as double moves in coverage. He is a player with top-level motor and is relentless in pursuit. Mayo put on nearly 15 pounds for the NFL Combine and lost nothing from his speed. While he still does not have the lower body strength to be a prototypical run-stuffing middle linebacker, Mayo is athletic and explosive. With big bodies in front of him, Mayo could be a terror and should go in the mid to late second round.
3.) Curtis Lofton 6-0 246 Oklahoma The position seems a little cloudy at this juncture. While Connor seems to be the unanimous #1 player at the position, 2-10 can all be argued and teams will no doubt have discrepancies among top prospects. Curtis Lofton could be the top prospect behind Connor, but the two have different skill sets and thus teams will place value differently depending on the defensive system. Unlike Mayo, Lofton lacks top-end speed to turn and run with tight ends and backs. Lofton's game is predicated on awareness and reads. Lofton is an expert at diagnosing and then attacking. Once he gets to the ball carrier, this guy will unload. He can bring serious wood and does so with pleasure. He is the best run-stuffing linebacker in the top 3 of either linebacker position. On the other hand, his hips are somewhat stiff in coverage and his 4.78 shows his lack of top end speed in man coverage. Lofton's overall skill set seem perfect for the middle linebacker position, while players like Mayo and Tavares Gooden could play outside. Those skills should land him in the second round.
4.) Phillip Wheeler 6-2 248 Georgia Tech In terms of physical skills, Wheeler has everything you could ask for from a middle linebacker. He has a strong, thick body, and good speed. He flashes the ability to run through blockers on the way to the ball carrier, as well as engage and shed blocks. He plays aggressively and with energy, however he relies too heavily on his quickness and often over-pursues. He lacks fluidity in his hips to turn and run with backs and tight ends, as well as the physicality to be disruptive. He was a leader at Georgia Tech, but with so many physical tools, he either lacks the desire or the ability to be more effective in coverage. He does not have the strength to be a run-stuffer or the ball skills to be a cover backer. May not be a true middle linebacker in the NFL and that lack of definition could be a negative in the eyes of some talent evaluators. Wheeler has solid instincts, good speed, and is an effective tackler. A team late in round 2 or early in round 3 will take a chance on a guy with this kind of athletic ability and potential.
5.) Tavares Gooden 6-1 234 Miami (Fla.)
Tavares Gooden has experience at all three linebacker positions and with his athleticism, he could play any of them in the NFL. In terms of athletic ability, he has incredible fluidity and range of movement, both attacking in the run game, and dropping in the passing game. He uses his great speed (4.65 40) to close on ball carriers, and explodes on impact. While he does not possess outstanding instincts or body awareness, he seems to find his way to the ball, whether he reads his keys effectively or not. For that reason, he may fit better on the outside in the NFL. Furthermore, he is undersized to play the middle, but this guy is a dedicated, hard-working player who will commit to getting stronger and bigger. If he can do that, and improve his anchor, his skills in coverage will mean he can be an every-down player on Sundays. Has a chance to follow in the footsteps of former Hurricane great LB's like Ray Lewis and Jonathan Vilma, and should go somewhere late second early third round in April.
6.) Jonathan Goff 6-2 245 Vanderbilt
Jonathan Goff has been a top 5 inside linebacker all season long. Goff's senior season was somewhat disappointing considering the high expectations, and he could have been in the top tier group with a stellar senior campaign. That being said, Goff could be a steal for whatever team takes him in the Draft. An extremely instinctive player, Goff combines size and speed when getting to the ball carrier. He uses good leverage and technique fighting off blockers and keeping them off of him as he makes his way to the ball carrier. However, the bigger blockers in the NFL might pose him problems until he improves his lower body strength. Goff is one of the few inside linebackers who can really get after the QB and shows good timing and burst across the line. Had some trouble staying with backs out of the backfield at Vandy, but his 4.63 40 time implies he has improved his quickness and at his size that shows his dedication to getting better. Goff should go in the third round, but may slip to the fourth.
7.) Beau Bell 6-1 244 UNLV
After Goff, many of the remaining player rankings will very greatly across teams. Beau Bell has been ranked all over draft boards and his good timing at the combine could have moved him up on many boards. However, he could be somewhat of a "workout warrior." Much like Ali Highsmith plays considerably faster than he timed, Bell plays slower than he times. He changes direction effectively, but his hips are not very fluid in coverage. He has limited range defending the pass and should not be asked to turn and run with tight ends. Could play over the tight end in the NFL and may be better suited there. He may also fit well in a 3-4 scheme because he uses angles effectively and can get to the quarterback with considerable force. Bell has good bulk, but must get stronger to play inside. He has one of the more developed pass rush games of any linebacker in the '08 class which would only make him more valuable to a 3-4 system. He has the awareness to cover in space and can really stick across the middle. He could be one of those "boom or busts" prospects, pardon the phrase. Sometimes showed considerable interest in Bell at the Senior Bowl and he could go in the second or third round. But he belongs in the fourth.
8.) Ben Moffitt 6-1 234 South Florida
One scout describes Ben Moffitt as, "the type of guy you hate to doubt." That essentially sums up the player he was at South Florida. Undersized and not athletically blessed, Moffitt was highly productive and lead a ferocious Bull defense. He does not great physical speed, but reads his keys quickly and reacts immediately. That helps make up for his lack of burst. He also hides his lack of speed by taking great angles to the ball. Moffitt can be engulfed by even undersized blockers and does not disengage well. When he does get a clean shot, he almost always takes it and makes the play. In terms of upside, Moffitt is limited because he is athletic as he'll ever be, and that simply isn't good enough. But don't tell him that. Moffit had almost 350 career tackles and in 2007 had 4 games in which he tallied at least 10 stops. He is the kind of guy GM's like to call "just a football player." All of the cliché phrases aside, Moffitt can play and is certainly a depending back-up and quality special teams player. He should go in the middle rounds, probably the fourth.
9.) Vince Hall 5-11 232 Virginia Tech
Unlike many of the undersized linebackers on this list, Hall plays considerably bigger than his body indicates. Hall has the strength to take on lead blockers in the hole and even the explosion to run them over and make the play. Using his instincts, he can get to the ball carrier quickly despite limited range. By reading his keys and diagnosing quickly, his lack of speed is negated to some degree. However, his lack of speed and quickness is certainly is strongest weakness. Hall struggles opening his hips and getting back in coverage. In fact, some scouts questions whether or not Hall can be an every down player. To make matters worse, Hall does not have great ball skills in coverage. Hall's ability to cut and change direction additionally hinders his dexterity in coverage. Hall has some potential as a run stuffing middle linebacker and takes good angles to the ball. However, his lack of versatility in coverage detracts from his value. Hall will probably fall to the 5th round and his experience playing "Beamer Ball" at Tech will give him enough special teams value to fall much further.
10.) Spencer Larsen 6-2 238 Arizona
Larsen, much like Hall, can really attack the line of scrimmage, but struggles in coverage. Larsen was a stand-out at the East West Shrine Game showing his instincts and aggressiveness. However, he also showed his inability to cover in space and looked lost at times. His 4.9 40 at the NFL Combine emphasizes his lack of top-end speed. Larsen is a junior and may have benefited from another year at Arizona, but how much would his stock have risen? Another year isn't going to make him faster. he is athletic now as he ever will be and that gives him limited upside. To be fair, he was productive surrounded with limited talent in one of the best conference in college football. He makes plays all over the field and certainly has a chance to be a special teams demon in his first year. Larsen may never be a starter on Sundays but will be a quality back up and special teams player. Larsen's lack of athletic ability and range means he will fall into the bottom of the 5th round and maybe even into the 6th.
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