Monday, March 3, 2008

NFL Draft Preview: Inside Linebackers

Middle linebackers are considerably easier to rank than outside linebackers because responsibilities are relatively homogeneous across teams. Unlike the weak and strong side, where different systems require very different skill sets, the middle linebacker has a certain different standard. The leader in the middle must make sure players are aligned correctly, read plays quickly, and play more physically than most outside 'backers. Patrick Willis was the Defensive Rookie of the Year last year after a remarkable rookie season. Willis was a top 10 prospect coming out and blew scouts away with his athletic ability. The 2008 draft class lacks that elite prospect at linebacker, either middle or outside. However, a number of productive and talented players make this class deep in the middle rounds. Much like Keith Rivers, the only way Dan Connor falls from the top spot between now and April is injury, or a horrific showing at Penn State's Pro Day.

1.) Dan Connor 6-3 233 Penn State

The NFL Combine was somewhat anticlimactic for linebackers as neither Keith Rivers nor Dan Connor took part. As of now, Connor is still the top rated inside linebacker in the class and unless he runs a higher than expected 40 at the Penn State Pro Day, he should stay that way. A strong showing in Happy Valley could mean Connor would move up from the bottom of the first round to the middle. Teams like Denver were drooling over Connor at the Senior Bowl and Big Ten fans know why. Just the latest in the line of great linebackers from "Linebacker U" and like those before him, he plays with great instinct and awareness in the run game. He reads his keys extremely quickly and can move laterally in a hurry to make it to the ball carrier. Connor breaks down in space effectively and is an extremely reliable tackler. His hips are somewhat stiff and his ability to change directions, turn and run, with tight ends or backs could be a concern at the next level. He could stand to put on some weight, and he must make sure he does not lose any athleticism from his already less than stellar credentials. Connor is in a position to really help himself in a few weeks in front of the scouts. A strong performance should land him somewhere between 10-25 in the first round.

2.) Jerod Mayo 6-1 242 Tennessee
Mayo is one of the fastest rising prospects in the draft since declaring early for the NFL Draft. His aggressive play and hard hitting mentality lead to great production in the SEC against the best teams in the nation. Mayo can be explosive at times, stoning full backs in the hole as well as laying out receivers coming across the middle. While not overly effective changing directions, he doe show fluid hips and blew scouts away with a 4.54 40 at the Combine. His biggest attributes also have been his weakness. He can be over-aggressive at times, leading him to bite on play-action fakes as well as double moves in coverage. He is a player with top-level motor and is relentless in pursuit. Mayo put on nearly 15 pounds for the NFL Combine and lost nothing from his speed. While he still does not have the lower body strength to be a prototypical run-stuffing middle linebacker, Mayo is athletic and explosive. With big bodies in front of him, Mayo could be a terror and should go in the mid to late second round.

3.) Curtis Lofton 6-0 246 Oklahoma The position seems a little cloudy at this juncture. While Connor seems to be the unanimous #1 player at the position, 2-10 can all be argued and teams will no doubt have discrepancies among top prospects. Curtis Lofton could be the top prospect behind Connor, but the two have different skill sets and thus teams will place value differently depending on the defensive system. Unlike Mayo, Lofton lacks top-end speed to turn and run with tight ends and backs. Lofton's game is predicated on awareness and reads. Lofton is an expert at diagnosing and then attacking. Once he gets to the ball carrier, this guy will unload. He can bring serious wood and does so with pleasure. He is the best run-stuffing linebacker in the top 3 of either linebacker position. On the other hand, his hips are somewhat stiff in coverage and his 4.78 shows his lack of top end speed in man coverage. Lofton's overall skill set seem perfect for the middle linebacker position, while players like Mayo and Tavares Gooden could play outside. Those skills should land him in the second round.

4.) Phillip Wheeler 6-2 248 Georgia Tech In terms of physical skills, Wheeler has everything you could ask for from a middle linebacker. He has a strong, thick body, and good speed. He flashes the ability to run through blockers on the way to the ball carrier, as well as engage and shed blocks. He plays aggressively and with energy, however he relies too heavily on his quickness and often over-pursues. He lacks fluidity in his hips to turn and run with backs and tight ends, as well as the physicality to be disruptive. He was a leader at Georgia Tech, but with so many physical tools, he either lacks the desire or the ability to be more effective in coverage. He does not have the strength to be a run-stuffer or the ball skills to be a cover backer. May not be a true middle linebacker in the NFL and that lack of definition could be a negative in the eyes of some talent evaluators. Wheeler has solid instincts, good speed, and is an effective tackler. A team late in round 2 or early in round 3 will take a chance on a guy with this kind of athletic ability and potential.

5.) Tavares Gooden 6-1 234 Miami (Fla.)
Tavares Gooden has experience at all three linebacker positions and with his athleticism, he could play any of them in the NFL. In terms of athletic ability, he has incredible fluidity and range of movement, both attacking in the run game, and dropping in the passing game. He uses his great speed (4.65 40) to close on ball carriers, and explodes on impact. While he does not possess outstanding instincts or body awareness, he seems to find his way to the ball, whether he reads his keys effectively or not. For that reason, he may fit better on the outside in the NFL. Furthermore, he is undersized to play the middle, but this guy is a dedicated, hard-working player who will commit to getting stronger and bigger. If he can do that, and improve his anchor, his skills in coverage will mean he can be an every-down player on Sundays. Has a chance to follow in the footsteps of former Hurricane great LB's like Ray Lewis and Jonathan Vilma, and should go somewhere late second early third round in April.

6.) Jonathan Goff 6-2 245 Vanderbilt

Jonathan Goff has been a top 5 inside linebacker all season long. Goff's senior season was somewhat disappointing considering the high expectations, and he could have been in the top tier group with a stellar senior campaign. That being said, Goff could be a steal for whatever team takes him in the Draft. An extremely instinctive player, Goff combines size and speed when getting to the ball carrier. He uses good leverage and technique fighting off blockers and keeping them off of him as he makes his way to the ball carrier. However, the bigger blockers in the NFL might pose him problems until he improves his lower body strength. Goff is one of the few inside linebackers who can really get after the QB and shows good timing and burst across the line. Had some trouble staying with backs out of the backfield at Vandy, but his 4.63 40 time implies he has improved his quickness and at his size that shows his dedication to getting better. Goff should go in the third round, but may slip to the fourth.

7.) Beau Bell 6-1 244 UNLV
After Goff, many of the remaining player rankings will very greatly across teams. Beau Bell has been ranked all over draft boards and his good timing at the combine could have moved him up on many boards. However, he could be somewhat of a "workout warrior." Much like Ali Highsmith plays considerably faster than he timed, Bell plays slower than he times. He changes direction effectively, but his hips are not very fluid in coverage. He has limited range defending the pass and should not be asked to turn and run with tight ends. Could play over the tight end in the NFL and may be better suited there. He may also fit well in a 3-4 scheme because he uses angles effectively and can get to the quarterback with considerable force. Bell has good bulk, but must get stronger to play inside. He has one of the more developed pass rush games of any linebacker in the '08 class which would only make him more valuable to a 3-4 system. He has the awareness to cover in space and can really stick across the middle. He could be one of those "boom or busts" prospects, pardon the phrase. Sometimes showed considerable interest in Bell at the Senior Bowl and he could go in the second or third round. But he belongs in the fourth.

8.) Ben Moffitt 6-1 234 South Florida
One scout describes Ben Moffitt as, "the type of guy you hate to doubt." That essentially sums up the player he was at South Florida. Undersized and not athletically blessed, Moffitt was highly productive and lead a ferocious Bull defense. He does not great physical speed, but reads his keys quickly and reacts immediately. That helps make up for his lack of burst. He also hides his lack of speed by taking great angles to the ball. Moffitt can be engulfed by even undersized blockers and does not disengage well. When he does get a clean shot, he almost always takes it and makes the play. In terms of upside, Moffitt is limited because he is athletic as he'll ever be, and that simply isn't good enough. But don't tell him that. Moffit had almost 350 career tackles and in 2007 had 4 games in which he tallied at least 10 stops. He is the kind of guy GM's like to call "just a football player." All of the cliché phrases aside, Moffitt can play and is certainly a depending back-up and quality special teams player. He should go in the middle rounds, probably the fourth.

9.) Vince Hall 5-11 232 Virginia Tech

Unlike many of the undersized linebackers on this list, Hall plays considerably bigger than his body indicates. Hall has the strength to take on lead blockers in the hole and even the explosion to run them over and make the play. Using his instincts, he can get to the ball carrier quickly despite limited range. By reading his keys and diagnosing quickly, his lack of speed is negated to some degree. However, his lack of speed and quickness is certainly is strongest weakness. Hall struggles opening his hips and getting back in coverage. In fact, some scouts questions whether or not Hall can be an every down player. To make matters worse, Hall does not have great ball skills in coverage. Hall's ability to cut and change direction additionally hinders his dexterity in coverage. Hall has some potential as a run stuffing middle linebacker and takes good angles to the ball. However, his lack of versatility in coverage detracts from his value. Hall will probably fall to the 5th round and his experience playing "Beamer Ball" at Tech will give him enough special teams value to fall much further.

10.) Spencer Larsen 6-2 238 Arizona
Larsen, much like Hall, can really attack the line of scrimmage, but struggles in coverage. Larsen was a stand-out at the East West Shrine Game showing his instincts and aggressiveness. However, he also showed his inability to cover in space and looked lost at times. His 4.9 40 at the NFL Combine emphasizes his lack of top-end speed. Larsen is a junior and may have benefited from another year at Arizona, but how much would his stock have risen? Another year isn't going to make him faster. he is athletic now as he ever will be and that gives him limited upside. To be fair, he was productive surrounded with limited talent in one of the best conference in college football. He makes plays all over the field and certainly has a chance to be a special teams demon in his first year. Larsen may never be a starter on Sundays but will be a quality back up and special teams player. Larsen's lack of athletic ability and range means he will fall into the bottom of the 5th round and maybe even into the 6th.

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