Sunday, March 9, 2008

NFL Draft Preview: Offensive Tackle

Offensive tackle is one of the deepest positions in this year's draft. Jake Long is a top 3 prospect and will draw consideration from the Miami Dolphins with the #1 overall pick. Between four and six tackles could be taken in the first round as the position is both deep and talented at the top. Team ssee the Giants and San Diego drawing on a top-flight pass rush to win. That model has a two-fold result: Teams will be looking to bolster their pass rush and mirror that success. Secondly, teams will look to improve their offensive lines to protect against those disruptive defenses. Championship contending teams like Patriots, Giants, Packers, Chargers, and Colts all have premium offensive lines, particularly on the corners, and it is no secret that the key to winning games is strong offensive line play. That is the reason a team like the Falcons might prefer to draft Jake Long than either Matt Ryan or Darren McFadden. The 2008 class has a good mix of left tackle and right tackle prospects, as well as a number of guys who can play either side. The group is highlighted by two top 10 overall prospects Jake Long and Ryan Clady.

1.) Jake Long 6-7 313 Michigan
The consensus top offensive lineman in the draft, Long's stock has risen even higher since the combine. Long dominated workouts, putting up a position best 37 reps of 225 and was third in the 3 cone drill. He was an All-American at Michigan protecting Chad Henne's blindside, but could play either right or left tackle in the NFL. Long is a technician when blocking and plays with great knee-bend. As a run-blocker, he takes excellent angles to defenders and walls them off with that massive frame. At this point, Long is a better run blocker than pass blocker, which speaks to both his talent in the run game as well as some deficiencies in pass protection. Long is a mauler can dominate in the run game. However, he is not a great natural athlete and his quickness to the outside is not elite. He gets back in his pass sets quickly, but guys like Vernon Gholston who can get to the edge in a hurry will give him problems. Long actually lost weight when Michigan went to the zone-blocking system and with his frame, he could play in just about any system. Long probably belongs on the right side, but certainly could play either RT or LT. He is not quite to the level of Joe Thomas, but is a top 5 player in the draft and could go in the top 3.

2.) Ryan Clady 6-6 309 Boise State
Jake Long may be the top offensive line in this year's draft, but Ryan Clady is certainly not far behind. Clady declared as a junior and had he stayed in school would have likely been the first offensive lineman taken in 2009. Clady has the potential to be an even better pass-protector than Jake Long. The former Bronco has tremendous quickness getting in his pass sets. He shows the ability to mirror pass rushers even on multiple moves. Clady, unlike Long, will not struggle with speed rushers and bends his knees extremely well. Despite his size, Clady could get stronger in his lower body. He does not always drive effectively in the run game. That is partially a result of his tendency to lunge and overextend himself. At this point, Clady's inexperience may be his biggest weakness. He can get rattled and has not played against top competition. Clady may be the best true left tackle prospect in the draft. He will likely go in the top 10 and there is almost no way he'd fall outside of the top 15.

3.) Chris Williams 6-6 315 Vanderbilt
Williams has been a fast-rising prospect all season long. He has a huge frame that he uses to swallow smaller defenders. He uses his hands extremely well and can lock on. Played some guard at Vandy and as such has tremendous lateral quickness and excellent feet. Despite his work inside, Williams has a tendency to play a little soft at times and lacks a killer instinct. He isn't a crushing blocker and has somewhat of a finesse game. Part of the problem is that Williams must put on weight and add strength to be a consistent run blocker. Williams put up only 21 reps of 225 at the combine, significantly lower than the Combine best 37 by Jake Long and Ohio State's Vernon Gholston. However, that lack of testable strength has not held him back in terms of production. Williams played extremely well in the SEC this past season and had a very strong showing at the combine. With his ability to use his hands and arms to position defenders, his lack of strength is negated to some degree. Williams has a ton of upside if he can add more strength. He is a top 15 player right now, and will go somewhere between picks 12-20 in the first round.

4.) Jeffrey Otah 6-6 322 Pittsburgh

Otah is on the other end of the spectrum from the aforementioned Williams. The Nigerian-born Otah is an absolute mauler and plays with the kind of physicality you need from an NFL right tackle. He flashes the ability to dominate in the run game, moving defensive ends wherever he wants. Once he locks on, it is pretty much over for the defender. From an athletic standpoint, Otah leaves something to be desired. For a man his size, he is relatively agile, but may not have the lateral quickness to stay with speed rushers on the left side in the NFL. In addition, Otah lacks ideal experience and technique. As a result, he is relatively unpolished. However, with a little coaching, Otah has as high a ceiling as any offensive line prospect in the draft. Even with improved technique, he probably still cannot play on the left side in the NFL. As a right tackle prospect, Otah has excellent upside and has every physical tool you want to see. May not be an ideal fit for all offensive schemes, but one of the teams from 15-31 in the first round will likely find a place for him.

5.) Sam Baker 6-5 309 USC
Gosder Cherilus has gained considerable momentum since his strong showing in post-season workouts and the Senior Bowl, however Sam Baker was the #2 OT to start the season and really has not played his way out of the top five. The only reason he has fallen to this point is the idea that he does not have ideal strength or physicality. Ask the defensive ends in the Pac-10 if Sam Baker can block; I'm not sure you'll walk away thinking he ought to fall even this far. Baker has tremendous feet and agility in pass protection. His ability to slide laterally makes him particularly frustrating for speed rushers and ends who like to use swim and spin moves. Baker has played on some of the best teams in the country and in a pro-style system. You won't ask Baker to drive block his man off the ball, he can can protect a QB's blindside. While he lacks outstanding strength and physicality, Baker's feet and athleticism give him Pro Bowl type ability. Teams, particularly those who run zone offenses, will covet Baker. He could go late in the first round to a team like Green Bay. If not, he will likely be the first offensive lineman taken in the second round.

6.) Gosder Cherilus 6-6 314 Boston College
There is no reason why Cherilus cannot be a premier offensive tackle in the NFL. That being said, when you look at his physical skills, there is no reason why he shouldn't have been absolutely dominant at BC and he wasn't. Cherilus is strong and powerful at the point of attack, flashing the ability drive his man back. He has nimble feet and good balance, allowing him to get good position and hold his ground. He is a smart player with good awareness on the field, but was arrested for assault last summer so his smarts off the field have been questioned. Cherilus has struggled with speed rushers and likely belongs on the right side in the NFL. In terms of technique, Cherilus uses his hands well and does not take very many false steps. The biggest issue Cherilus has is he plays with poor leverage and does not bend his knees well. That leads him to play too high and in doing so, can negate his strength and power. Cherilus may not be the top 3 prospect he appeared to be at the beginning of his senior season, but he has too many physical skills to fall down the list too far. He is a borderline first round pick, and likely will not fall out of the top 10 or 15 picks in the second round.

7.) Carl Nicks 6-5 341 Nebraska
Carl Nicks is one of the biggest players in the draft at any position. Unlike Cherilus, Nicks uses his body effectively and plays with solid leverage. Cherilus gets away with it because he uses better technique than Nicks. The former Husker has a tendency to play under the level of his physical attributes because he does not use his hands as effectively as he could. Nicks showed well at the combine and appeared more athletic in drills than he did at Nebraska. If Nicks has dedicated himself to improving his lateral quickness and his overall technique, his ceiling as a RT is extremely high. He already shows excellent punch in the run game just using his raw power and upper-body strength. If coached properly, Nicks could turn out to be a solid player at right tackle in the NFL. While he is certainly not at the level of Clady or Long, Nicks will likely go in second round.

8.)
Anthony Collins 6-5 317 Kansas
Another right tackle prospect with outstanding physical tools, this Kansas All-American has ridden his team's breakout success and turned it into first day draft potential. Collins, much like Kansas, does not have a ton of experience in the spotlight. Collins could have benefited from another year at Kansas improving his technique and playing against most top-level competition in the Big-12. In his two years starting however he has played both tackle spots and could play either in the NFL, although he probably best suited to play right tackle on Sundays. He uses his long arms to ride defenders out of areas. He does not possess great technique and is inconsistent getting proper anchor in his sets. When he does play with balance, Collins is a wall and effectively uses his massive frame to shield and even wipe out defenders. His poor technique means poor footwork and he does not have the quickness to stay with speed rushers, or mirror double-moves. At this point, his physical attributes give up enough upside to fit into the late second round, but could fall to the third.

9.) Duane Brown 6-4 315 Virginia Tech
Here is where this position gets somewhat convoluted. The talent level drops off and as a result, a teams style or preferences become much more important when scouting players. Brown is a former tight end, who made the switch to tackle in 2005. Brown still possesses a ton of quickness and agility and uses his athletic ability effectively, particularly in pass protection. His lateral quickness and long arms allow him to wall off the corner and speed rushers won't bother him. He can slide with speed rushers, but certainly will have to get stronger to deal with bull rushers. In terms of weaknesses, Brown's game has a long way to go as a run blocker. He still hasn't learned how to take effective angles to wall off defenders, or use solid technique when asked to do different things like cut. His knowledge of the position must improve as he struggles with stunts, protection slides, and blitz pick up. Teams looking employing zone blocking systems will love this kid's upside, while power running teams may view him as a project in a more pejorative sense. He is somewhat of a project, but has the kind of upside to land him in the third round.

10.)
Oniel Cousins 6-4 308 U.T.E.P.
A player like Cousins could be a 3rd round tackle prospect on some boards, while a 5th round guard prospect on others. Cousins is a raw prospect, who made the switch from defensive tackle in 2005 at UTEP and just where he'll play in the NFL is unclear. His technique is not outstanding and he is still learning how to use his body effectively. However, Cousins is a stellar athlete with excellent quickness and agility. He can get to the second level and does a good job of hitting moving targets in space. Cousins' bulk could be improved, hopefully without losing too much from his quickness. Right now, he uses his feet effectively to mirror pass-rushers, a place his experience on the defensive line will certainly help. He must get stronger to deal with bull rushers on the outside, and that lack of strength probably prevents him from moving inside to guard on the next level as he won't be able to handle the types of enormous nose tackles he could potentially face. One of the better athletes along the offensive line, Cousins could go in the third or fourth round.

No comments: