2012 Mock Draft 2.0

The underclassmen have declared, pushing some seniors down the list, while also leaving a loaded class for 2013, particularly at quarterback.

After a surprising week of playoff football, we have a slightly altered order. In this case, it allowed teams like Green Bay to address needs earlier in the draft than anticipated while New England get a higher than expected pick from New Orleans in the Mark Ingram trade. 

Still too early to do any predictive mocking, this is based on consensus prospect ranking and team need. The middle of the first round in particular is kind to teams in terms of marrying value and need. 

I use a tiered ranking system to help teams with multiple needs or those teams without a clear direction based on value. In other words, when a team drafts there is a highest possible tier of players from which they can choose. 

If no needs are satisfied by that pool of players, the drop-off in talent for reaching is weighed against the quality of the talent in the highest tier. 

In some cases, that means teams make luxury picks to accumulate more value (a strategy too few teams actually employ). 

1.) Indianapolis Colts (2-14) Andrew Luck QB Stanford
Needs:OL,RB,LB,CB,DT
This pick is a foregone conclusion given that Colts Owner Jim Irsay has said he'll draft either Luck or Robert Griffin III. Indianapolis has gutted the leadership team, removing both head coach and general manager, an indication the team is ready to rebuild. They couldn't ask for a better player to rebuild with than Andrew Luck, the player some are comparing to John Elway. Luck has a plus arm, though not an elite one in terms of strength. The Stanford quarterback makes up for his lack of top-level arm strength with outstanding accuracy, great timing and tremendous preparation. The Colts have had Peyton Manning for the last decade and a half. It's almost like they get to draft him twice.


2.) St. Louis Rams (2-14) Morris Claiborne CB LSU
Needs: WR,DB,OL,DL
A mess in the secondary and on the edges, St. Louis will have to decide between three franchise players in Claiborne, Oklahoma State's wide receiver Justin Blackmon and Matt Khalil from USC, who was so good he moved 2011 first round pick Tyron Smith to right tackle. Blackmon is a popular pick here for the Rams, but I don't see Jeff Fisher going that direction here. Claiborne may not be Champ Bailey or Darrelle Revis, but he has tremendous fluidity in coverage and solid ball skills. He's a Day 1 starter for this defense and new Defensive Coordinator Gregg Williams will love him knowing one-on-one coverage will hold up amidst the myriad blitz packages Williams will use.


3.) Minnesota Vikings (3-13) Matt Khalil OT USC
Needs: OL,DB,WR,DT
The second and third picks are interesting because they're the most likely places for teams hoping to grab Robert Griffin III to jump. Cleveland may swap picks with St. Louis or a team like Washington could jump up as well. If someone does move into the second spot, there is a chance Minnesota would take Claiborne to combat Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson et al. On the other hand, Khalil is the only true franchise tackle in this draft in my opinion and when you invest a high round pick in a quarterback as the Vikings did with Christian Ponder, you have to make sure he's protected from guys like Julius Peppers and Clay Matthews.

4.) Cleveland Browns (4-12) Trent Richardson RB Alabama
Needs: WR,RB,OL,LB,QB
If Griffin III is available here, I think the Browns think long and hard about it, but my guess is they'd rather not take another quarterback. Colt McCoy is not the problem with the offense in Cleveland, it's that the team just has no weapons for him. Trent Richardson is unequivocally, the best running back prospect to come out of college since Adrian Peterson. His bullish style will warm the hearts of Browns fans who thought Peyton Hillis would be their team's return to the good old days of smash mouth Cleveland running backs. Justin Blackmon also makes sense, but getting Richardson and a lower-tier wide receiver later in the draft has more value than Blackmon and a lower-tier running back.

5.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12) Riley Reiff OT Iowa
Needs: DB,LB,WR,OL
This is not an ideal situation for the Buccaneers because the best player on the board is Justin Blackmon and the Buccaneers have at least competent group of skill players. The Bucs best option may be to take Blackmon and hope Josh Freeman doesn't continue to regress, or they could take Riley Reiff, the only other elite tackle in this draft and help keep Freeman upright. Tampa plays in a division with some terrific offenses and it's defense was a bigger problem last year so Quinton Coples could get a look here, but Reiff makes more sense to try to protect your franchise quarterback.

6.) Washington Redskins (5-11) Robert Griffin III QB Baylor
Needs: QB, DL,WR,CB,OL
Washington likely won't get RG3 if they wait until their original pick to get him. They'll have to trade up and my guess is that they will. With a semi-competent quarterback, the Redskins would have probably won the NFC East, which is saying something considering they beat the eventual champion Giants twice in the regular season. Griffin is not your typical spread college quarterback in that he has great throwing mechanics to go with that dynamic running ability. Robert Griffin III isn't quite Cam Newton, but if he can give the 'Skins a similar offensive boost, the playoffs are a possibility next year.

7.) Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11) Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State
Needs: WR,DE,DB,OLB
Blaine Gabbert was a disappointment last year for the Jaguars, but their skill position players outside of Maurice Jones-Drew were an absolute joke. Blackmon is not quite as explosive as fellow Cowboy wide-out Dez Bryant, but Blackmon has a similar frame and more consistent hands. Bryant may be more naturally talented, but Blackmon is more consistent on and off the field. Just as A.J. Green made Andy Dalton better for the Bengals, Blackmon could do wonders for Gabbert in this Jaguar offense.

8.) Carolina Panthers (6-10) Quinton Coples DE North Carolina 
Needs: CB,WR,S, LB, DE
Getting a corner like Dre Kirkpatrick will be temping here, but getting the best front seven prospect in the draft makes more sense for a defense that was heinous last year. Playing teams like New Orleans and Atlanta twice certainly didn't help, nor did playing the NFC North with the Packers and the Lions on the schedule, but this defense hasn't been the same since Julius Peppers left. Coples was a potential #1 overall pick heading into this season and while he under-performed is still one of the few elite pass-rushers in the draft. Having played defensive tackle as a senior, Coples reminds me a little of Justin Tuck with his lanky frame and ability to be disruptive off the edge and along the interior.

9.) Miami Dolphins (6-10) David DeCastro G Stanford
Needs: QB,WR,S,LB,TE
We'll know a lot more about who to pencil in here after the Dolphins hire a coach. Some offensive names are out there which leads me to believe it's a good bet improving the offensive line will be a priority. An aggressive coach, perhaps Green Bay's OC Joe Philbin, may want to trade up for Robert Griffin III, but the prudent choice is the best interior lineman in the draft to help re-establish Miami as a physical run team. Reggie Bush had a statement season and with a better offensive line, could become an even bigger weapon.


10.) Buffalo Bills (6-10) Devon Still DT Penn State
Needs: OLB,DL,OL,DB
Still isn't a perfect fit for the Bills because he's a raw pass-rusher, but the Penn State product would fit well next to 2011 top pick Marcel Dareus who is the more disruptive of the two. Still, at 6-5, has long arms and can keep blockers engaged so his linebackers can make plays, a critical piece to the 3-4 defense Buffalo runs. If Stevie Johnson isn't re-signed I could see Michael Floyd with this pick or Buffalo could reach for a pass-rusher like Courtney Upshaw.    

11.) Kansas City Chiefs (7-9) Michael Floyd WR Notre Dame
Needs: WR,TE,OL,NT,LB
Floyd has been one of the most dominant receivers in the nation in his time in South Bend. Off the field issues aside, Floyd has an NFL body and is a physical receiver who demands the ball. Dwayne Bowe's time in K.C. may have run out and Jonathan Baldwin's growth was stunted by inconsistency at quarterback. Floyd would also allow Steve Breaston to resume his role as slot receiver extraordinaire and allow the Chiefs to use Dexter McCluster from a number of different positions.

12.) Seattle Seahawks (7-9) Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama
Needs: QB,CB,LB,DE,OL
Did you see the Alabama defense in the National Championship game? Kirkpatrick was a big reason why Nick Saban's defense can play so aggressively upfront. He's relied on to take away his side of the field and does so with regularity. A big, physical corner, Kirkpatrick is a better tackler than Claiborne and has great feel in coverage. Had Landry Jones not decided to return to Norman, he might have been the pick here, but Kirkpatrick is one of the best back end players in the draft and will help Seattle right away.

13.) Arizona Cardinals (8-8) Luke Kuechly LB Boston College
Needs: OL,OLB,WR,DB
Arizona's success next season will primarily hinge on Kevin Kolb's ability to shake off a sluggish first season in Phoenix. If Kolb can't cut it this season, I don't see the Cardinals putting up with it for another season given the price they paid for him. Getting Kolb some field position and defensive stops will help and Kuechly is the kind of cerebral, instinctive player the Cards could use. Kuechly won't win any combine awards for athleticism, but finds the football and tackles extremely well. Arizona has had terrific offensive players over the last few years, but not many defensive ones. Kuechly is a potential Pro Bowl middle linebacker.

14.) Dallas Cowboys (8-8) Michael Brockers DT LSU
Needs: CB,DL,OL,OLB
I couldn't figure out why the so-called experts in the media kept saying Dallas had one of the most talented rosters in football. Frankly, that's just not true. The Cowboy defense, outside of DeMarcus Ware, isn't very good and when Jerry Jones sees the way Michael Brockers plays at his size, I don't see him passing. Brockers is just a sophomore out of Baton Rouge, but is 6-6 304 pounds and uses his hands extremely well for someone as lanky as he is. He's not a pass-rush demon yet, but the athletic ability is there. In terms of his ability to engage and hold the point, he's a great fit for the Cowboys 3-4 defense.

15.) Philadelphia Eagles (8-8) Jonathan Martin OT Stanford
Needs: LB,OL,S,RB,WR
Philly could really use the tackling and toughness of Luke Kuechly, but the Eagels' other major concern last year was keeping their quarterback upright. Winston Justice just isn't a starting NFL tackle and while Jason Peters is solid on the left side, Mike Vick's blindside has been a problem. Martin is a better fight on the right side anyway where he can use his physicality and motor to open running lanes for LeSean McCoy. If Philly ran the 3-4 defense, it's a no-brainer to pick Courtney Upshaw who could play inside and outside, but in a typical 4-3 defense, Upshaw just isn't a good fit.

16.) New York Jets (8-8) Melvin Ingram OLB/DE South Carolina
Needs: WR,OLB,S,DL,OL
Despite their reputation, the Jets defense had a hard time getting to opposing quarterbacks without bringing extra rushers last year. Melvin Ingram could be the answer to Rex Ryan's problems as a versatile disruptor upfront. Ingram has played inside and outside on the defensive line, while also standing up and rushing out of a two-point stance. The Jets could line him up at end or linebacker in their defense and his experience playing tackle will make him effective on loops and stunts pushing the pocket inside. Alabama's outstanding safety Mark Barron would also make sense here.

 17.) Bengals F/ Oakland Mark Barron S Alabama
Needs: S,RB,G,WR,LB
The Carson Palmer trade allows Cincinnati to address their top need with the best player at his position in this year's class. Barron is a tough, physical safety who can play in the box and in coverage. Defensively, the Bengals were one of the most improved units in the league last year, but depth in the secondary is a problem. Barron could be a starter and quality contributor right away.


18.) San Diego Chargers (8-8) Courtney Upshaw OLB Alabama
Needs: LB,CB,OL,WR
This San Diego defense has flat-lined since Jamal Williams and Shawne Merriman left a few years ago. They can't rush the passer, get a stop or even tackle people at this point. Upshaw is just the kind of aggressive, powerful edge rusher the Chargers needs. The Crimson Tide linebacker played as a stand-up rusher in Alabama's incredible defense and is relentless off the edge. Corner would also make sense here but in the AFC West, you need a physical front seven and pass rush is a bigger problem for San Diego.

19.) Chicago Bears (8-8) Kendall Wright WR Baylor
Needs: OL,WR,TE,CB,LB
Even with Jay Cutler and Matt Forte, the Bear offense just isn't very good. They haven't had a legitimate #1 receiver in a long time and even if Matt Forte comes back to Chicago, he can't do it alone. That defense is getting older and could use some help but Kendall Wright can be for the Bears offense what they hoped Devin Hester would be. Wright is quick, explosive and a big play waiting to happen. He's a more natural receiver than Johnny Knox who is still recovering from a back injury. Wright is flying up draft boards, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Bears preferred a bigger body at receiver like Alshon Jeffery.


20.) Tennessee Titans (9-7) Alfonzo Dennard CB Nebraska
Needs: WR,CB,DL,TE,OL

Cortland Finnegan is a free agent and the Titans love tough, physical corners. Dennard does not have top-end speed,  but most of the receivers in the AFC South, Andre Johnson and Reggie Wayne for example, are not burners. Dennard can help a passing defense lacking depth at corner. The pas rush has also been a big issue in Nashville, so someone like Fletcher Cox or Nick Perry would make sense here as well.


21.) Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) Lamar Miller RB Miami (Fla.)
Needs: S,RB,G,WR,LB
Cincinnati has a chance, with two first round picks, to add to their group of young talent. The Bengals hit with A.J. Green and Andy Dalton last year and have built a solid core of talent through the draft for the last few years. The offense would be even better if it had a running back defenses really had to account for. Cedric Benson is a free agent and turns 30 next season, meaning the Bengals need to find a replacement. Miller is a starting-caliber back who runs with good balance and forward lean. He is patient at the point and can explode through holes and always finishes runs.


22.) Browns F/ Atlanta Vontaze Burfict LB Arizona State 
Needs: WR,RB,OL,LB,QB

Cleveland certainly has bigger needs at wide receiver and along the offensive line, but I think with Richardson at the top and Burfict here you send a message to your team that you want tough, physical football players. The Browns would probably have the most punishing offense and defensive players in this draft as Burfict is a thick, aggressive linebacker who loves to hit people. He does have a tendency to let his emotions dictate his play, but just a junior, he has time to mature and channel that aggression into his play. Athletically,  he can play inside or outside and has some pass rush ability making him a versatile piece to Cleveland's improving defense.





23.) Detroit Lions (10-6) Cordy Glenn OL Georgia
Needs: OL,DB,LB,WR
Detroit is one of the most dangerous young teams in the league loaded with talent thanks to some outstanding drafts. Unfortunately for them, this year's class is loaded with defensive lineman and the Lions have one of the best fronts in football. A running back or linebacker may fit a bigger need here, but Glenn was once considered a top prospect and has fallen slightly because of his lack of mobility. One thing you can't teach though, is size and at almost 350 pounds, Glenn has plenty of that. He can play guard or tackle at the next level and could really help Detroit open holes for a running game that has been non-existent lately.



24.) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) Fletcher Cox DT Mississippi
Needs: CB,DL,OL,S,RB
The Steelers lost to the Broncos in part because they played with a patchwork defensive line. Brett Keisel's beard is epic, but he'll be 34 next season and former All-Pro nose tackle Casey Hampton will be 35. Pittsburgh drafted Cameron Heyward last year, but that shouldn't stop them from grabbing Cox, a disruptive tackle in the SEC who can add some youth and athleticism to that Steeler front. An offensive lineman here would also make sense, but it's a little early for someone like Mike Adams or Zebrie Sanders.


25.) Denver Broncos (8-8) Dwayne Allen TE Clemson
Needs: WR,DB,DT,RB
If you're Denver, your top priority has to be to get Tim Tebow more weapons. Demaryius Thomas has shown flashes of his talent while Erick Decker and Eddie Royal are solid compliments. Getting Tebow a tight end who can both block and be a receiving threat would be huge for this offense given how much responsibility the tight end will have in the run game. Allen reminds me of a slightly more athletic Heath Miller in that he isn't going to dominate the way Rob Gronkowski will, but can win his 1-on-1 match-ups and will be a reliable blocker for you as well.

26.) Houston Texans (10-6) Alshon Jeffery WR South Carolina
Needs: S,WR,OL,DL
Houston has a chance to be scary good next season if they can add a threat opposite Andre Johnson. The defense took a huge step forward with an outstanding 2011 draft and the addition of Johnathan Joseph. The Texan running game is dominant and with defenses keying on Andre Johnson, Houston needs a second receiver who can be a threat. Jeffery has a frame like Calvin Johnson plus a similar pedigree and background. Not overly fast, Jeffery can win against man coverage due to his size and long arms. He will get plenty of 1-on-1 opportunities in this offense as long as Johnson is on the field opposite him.

27.) Patriots F/ New Orleans Nick Perry OLB/DE USC
Needs:DE,S,LB,DL,CB
If not for a meaningless Week 17 game for the Packers, the Patriots might have wound up with the worst passing defense ever statistically speaking. The pass rush was anemic most of the season and even though a few players stepped up as the year wore on, the Patriots need help on D. Nick Perry declared early out of USC and is still somewhat raw as a pass rusher. Physically, however, and as an athlete, Perry can be a difference-maker for the Patriots. He could play defensive end or linebacker depending on the defensive alignment and could allow the Patriots to go to back to a 3-4 defense, a scheme they abandoned basically because they didn't have the linebackers to make it work.

28.) Green Bay Packers (15-1) Whitney Mercilus OLB/DE Illinois
Needs: OLB,OL,CB,DL
There's really only one place the Packers can go in the first round and that is an impact pass-rusher. Whether it's a defensive lineman or linebacker, Green Bay has to get someone to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks because the Packer defensive backs are the best in the league at making quarterbacks pay for throws that are just slightly off. Whitney Mercilus had 16 sacks to lead the nation and forced an amazing 9 fumbles playing against some elite offensive linemen in the Big 10. Amazingly, he's still raw as a pass rush technician and has relied mostly on athletic ability and will. He doesn't have great explosion or closing speed, but with Clay Matthews opposite him, Mercilus will get a ton of 1-on-1 opportunities and should be able to make the most of them.



29.) New York Giants (9-7) Mike Adams OT Ohio State
Needs: OL,CB,LB,RB
Despite playing exceptionally well against the Packers, New York's secondary is not exceedingly talented and could use an upgrade. On the other hand, Eli Manning has an outstanding group of receivers and with a more consistent running game, could really keep the Giants in the thick of the NFC. Getting some help for an aging offensive line group would help. Adams certainly has left tackle talent and does a solid job in pass protection using his hands and walling off defenders. Not overly assertive in the run game, Adams doesn't quite have that bullish demeanor you'd like an elite tackle to have. Luckily for New York, they have two running backs who more than make up for it with their physical running style.



30.) Baltimore Ravens (12-4) Peter Konz C Wisconsin
Needs: OL,OLB,DB,RB
John Harbaugh has to be pleased with where his roster is heading into 2012. Baltimore is heading to the AFC Championship game and has some emerging offensive play-makers. However, at a few positions, the Ravens are getting long in the tooth and Matt Birk's time in the league is coming to an end. Peter Konz is one of the best interior lineman in the draft and could be cornerstone of this offense with Joe Flacco and Ray Rice for many years. Konz is a smart, physical offensive lineman and has the leadership skills you look for in a player having to make protection calls at the line. Athletically, he can pull and move around, allowing Cam Cameron to use his creativity in the Ravens' play-calling.

31.) San Francisco 49ers (13-3) Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama
Needs: CB,S,OLB,OT
San Francisco has a loaded roster and the defense was one of the best in the last decade. On the other hand, the 49ers have a below average pass defense and ranked near the bottom of the league statistically for most of the year. In the divisional round against the Saints, that defense forced 5 turnovers (dropped at least 2 other interceptions) and the Saints still scored 32 points. Carlos Rogers had a great season for the 'Niners but depth in the secondary is a concern, especially if this team expects to consistently compete against passing teams like the Saints, Lions and Packers in the NFC. Jenkins is a Florida transfer with five-star talent and five-star attitude issues. If there's a player who can get Jenkins' head right and maximize his talent, it's Jim Harbaugh.

32.) New England Patriots (13-3) Dontari Poe DT Memphis
Needs: DE,S,LB,DL,CB
Not only was New England's defense awful against the pass, it was 17th against the rush and it probably would have been worse if New England's offense hadn't been so prolific. Imagine trying to run against almost 700 total pounds of Vince Wilfork and Dontari Poe. The only true nose tackle in the draft, Poe is surprisingly agile for a man his size (6-5 350) and can really push the pocket inside. Poe would be an ideal fit to replace Wilfork should the Patriots decide to go back to the 3-4, or pair with Wilfork inside in a 4-3 set. New England's secondary remains an issue, but the Patriots won a Super Bowl with Troy Brown at quarterback because their front seven was so good. Expect Bill Belichik to focus on improving that unit first.

Aerial Assault: 2012 Draft Wide Receivers in Statistical Perspective

Last week, I took a look at a statistical look at quarterback prospects in the 2012 compared to elite NFL quarterbacks.

What I found was some interesting similarities among pro and college signal-callers as well as some troubling statistics about would-be draft picks.

I took a similar approach with this year's wide receiver group, although finding efficiency metrics for wide receivers without becoming too detailed can be difficult.

Using something like targets and completed catches, to me, is a flawed metric for college evaluations because top-level wide receivers are often relied upon more to make individual plays than the NFL.

A college quarterback, figuring his guy always has a mismatch, will throw more intro coverage and traffic to an elite wide receiver than the NFL, simply because most of the time, the receivers are just better than the corners.

As I broke down the collegiate numbers of elite NFL wide receivers (I used yards per catch for receivers with 60 or more catches in the NFL this season to determine which receivers to include), there were some interesting trends.

	Catches	Yards	Average	TD	TD%	C/G	Y/G
Victor Cruz	130	1932	14.86	11	8.5	5.9	87.8
Jordy Nelson	206	2822	13.7	20	9.7	6.4	88.2
Vincent Jackson	146	2844	19.48	32	21.9	6.6	129.3
Larry Fitzgerald	161	2677	16.62	34	21.2	6.2	103
Steve Smith	78	1603	20.55	12	15.4	3.7	76.3
Calvin Johnson	178	2927	16.44	28	15.7	4.7	77
Mike Wallace	101	1910	19.91	15	14.9	2.7	51.6
A.J. Green	166	2619	15.77	23	13.9	5.2	81.8
Antonio Brown	307	3208	10.44	22	7.2	7.1	74.6
Hakeem Nicks	181	2840	15.69	21	11.6	5.2	81.1
Darius Heyward-Bey	138	2089	15.14	13	9.4	3.7	56.5
Brandon Marshall	110	1656	15.05	13	11.8	4.4	66.2
Dez Bryant	147	2425	16.5	29	19.7	5.57	93.3
Dwayne Bowe	154	2403	15.6	26	17.1	3.5	54.6
Marques Colston	182	2834	15.57	18	9.9	4.55	70.85
Greg Jennings	238	3539	14.87	39	16.4	5.7	84.3
Andre Johnson	92	1831	19.9	20	21.8	2.7	53.9
Wes Welker	259	3069	11.85	21	8.1	5.2	61.4

The top 14 are the players who qualified under my above requirements. I added Jennings and Johnson, two elite receivers whose numbers were hurt by injury this year.

I also added Welker for the sake of argument, although, in my opinion, without the Patriot system, he's no where near this conversation.

In terms of physicality, the average player in this pool was 6'2 1/2, 211 pounds. Interestingly, 7 of the 17 players on this list are from non-AQ conferences, but 7 of the remaining 10 came from either the SEC or the ACC.

In fact, there's not one Big 10 receiver on this list (Paging Nick Toon).

As far as the production goes, there are numbers all over the place in terms of catches, yards, touchdowns and the efficiency per game numbers.

The most consistent statistic here is average. If you eliminate my three additions (none of whom would have qualified under my parameters) only 3 of the 17 players have a college yard per catch average below 15 and one of them is Victor Cruz at 14.86.

Now remember from our discussion about quarterbacks that these numbers are not predictive. A yard per catch average above 15 does not necessitate NFL success, but it's important to point out that it is, by far, the most consistent characteristic all of these receivers share.

Furthermore, 3 of the top 4 averages on this list are also in the top 7 in NFL yard per catch.

Players like Jordy Nelson and Nelson Cruz, the second of whom lead the league in average, are proof that a lack of success in college won't preclude success in the NFL. On the other hand, both are surrounded by elite offensive talent and play for Super Bowl MVP quarterbacks.

The second and perhaps more appealing metric may help show why players like Nelson and Cruz have had success in the NFL despite not being wildly efficient in college.

Look at what happens to this receiver group if we rank them by the percentage of catches they made also resulting in touchdowns.

1.) Vincent Jackson
2.) Andre Johnson
3.) Larry Fitzgerald
4.) Dez Bryant
5.) Dwayne Bowe
6.) Greg Jennings
7.) Calvin Johnson
8.) Steve Smith
9.) Mike Wallace
10.) A.J. Green

Basically, you have the 10 best receivers in football on that list. The reason is because the metric mixes efficiency with effect on the game. There's no bigger way a receiver can impact a game than with a touchdown.

That statistic measures the frequency without which a receiver is able to impact the game by doing more more just putting up yards.

Notice too, the receivers at the bottom of the list, guys like Nelson, Cruz, Brown Welker and Colston, all of them play in prolific offenses full of weapons and get the ball from Pro Bowl quarterbacks.

This particular metric may allow us to take into consideration a significant increase in production from these players from their college career to the pros.

Here's how the 2012 WR class stacks up

	Catches	Yards	Average	TD	TD%	C/G	Y/G
Justin Blackmon	244	3378	13.84	37	15.1	7.2	99.4
Michael Floyd	266	3645	13.7	36	13.5	6.3	86.8
Kendall Wright	295	3914	13.26	29	9.8	6	79.9
Alshon Jeffery	179	2894	16.16	22	12.3	4.6	74.2
Nick Toon	162	2343	14.46	17	10.5	3.9	55.8
Dwight Jones	146	2086	14.29	15	10.3	5.2	74.5
Mohamed Sanu	204	2201	10.79	12	5.9	5.5	59.5
Rueben Randle	94	1621	17.24	13	13.8	2.5	43.8
Brian Quick	131	2322	17.73	20	15.2	3.9	68.3
Jeff Fuller	226	2973	13.15	33	14.6	5	66.1
Jarius Wright	165	2846	17.29	23	13.9	3.4	59.3

Based on average yards per catch, only 4 of these 11 qualify as above average receivers based on the NFL comparison and only one of them (Jeffery) is considered an elite prospect, meaning the other 3 elite wide outs don't meet this criterion.

Our other statistic, touchdown percentage, makes some important distinctions with this group as well. Only 3 of these players would be ranked in the top 10 in the above list and Brian Quick's appearance on that list is likely, at least in part, due to the fact that he plays in a non-AQ conference against inferior talent.

On the other hand, remember that more than 40% of those top receivers were from non-AQ schools, making Quick the best candidate to join the group.

Jeff Fuller's stock has fallen over the course of the season, due in part to the up and down play of his quarterback Ryan Tannehill.

All of his his numbers are almost exactly the NFL group's average in terms of yards, catches per game and yards per game.

Furthermore, his touchdown percentage may indicate he's undervalued based on these projections.

These number also suggest Michael Floyd and Kendall Wright, particularly Wright, are overrated. Both fail to meet the average in yards of per catch and both fall short of our touchdown percentage benchmark, although Floyd is close.

Two of the sleepers of this class appear to be Rueben Randle and Jarius Wright, both of whom have well above average yard per catch numbers and both would just barely miss the touchdown list (Wright would actually be tied with A.J. Green).

Both play in the SEC against elite corners and while they get it done in different ways, Wright being more of a slot receiver at 5'10'' and Randle an outside guy at 6'3'', the fact is they do get it done.

For Blackmon, a likely top 5 pick, the numbers support his case as a blue-chip prospect. Worries about his yard per catch average can be explained by his obscenely high usage rate, catching 7.2 passes per game at OK State.

That's more than any player on our NFL list.

There is an interesting similarity to note here, so let's look at two players side by side. We'll call them Player A and Player B.

	Catches	Yards	Average	TD	TD%	C/G	Y/G
Player A	178	2927	16.44	28	16.4	4.7	77
Player B	179	2894	16.16	22	12.3	4.6	74.2

Player A is 6'5'' 236 and played in the ACC while player B is 6'4'' 232 and played in the SEC.

Player A is Calvin Johnson.
Player B is Alshon Jeffery.

Jeffery's stock has fallen somewhat, but when you lose Marcus Lattimore and have no continuity at quarterback, it shouldn't be surprising when your passing offense becomes less effective, especially when you play against SEC defenses.

Jeffery has seen two of the elite corners in this draft Dre Kirkpatrick and Janoris Jenkins.

He has size you can't coach and is a natural plucker of the football. He's not as fast as Johnson, but in terms of leaping ability and making catches in traffic, Jeffery and Johnson are peers.

Rankings this group by yards per catch:

1.) Brian Quick
2.) Jarius Wright
3.) Rueben Randle
4.) Alshon Jeffery
5.) Nick Toon
6.) Dwight Jones
7.) Justin Blackmon
8.) Michael Floyd
9.) Kendall Wright
10.) Jeff Fuller
11.) Mohamed Sanu

Rankings by touchdown percentage

1.) Brian Quick
2.) Justin Blackmon
3.) Jeff Fuller
4.) Jarius Wright
5.) Rueben Randle
6.) Michael Floyd
7.) Alshon Jeffery
8.) Nick Toon
9.) Dwight Jones
10.) Kendall Wright
11.) Mohamed Sanu

It may not, then, be surprising for the average draft placement for the elite NFL receivers to be the 59th pick in the draft. As the data shows, there are some extremely talented receivers in the middle and bottom of these rankings.

Were they better college players than those ranked ahead of them? Perhaps not, but they clearly have skills that would translate at the next level.

Since it's important to remember statistics are only relevant with context, let's take these statistics based on where these prospects were ranked heading into our analysis.

The rankings would look like this:

1.) Justin Blackmon
2.) Michael Floyd
3.) Alshon Jeffery
4.) Brian Quick
5.) Nick Toon
6.)Rueben Randle
7.) Kendall Wright
8.) Dwight Jones
9.) Jarius Wright
10.) Jeff Fuller
11.) Mohamed Sanu

The only real difference between this list and the list we started with was the flip-flopping (more or less) of Brian Quick with Kendall Wright, and the rise of Rueben Randle.

Mohamed Sanu also sees a dramatic fall, but most scouts see Sanu as somewhat of a raw, project-type player anyway.

Remember, it doesn't mean this is the list of players as it will look come draft time or in a few years when we rank the careers of these players.

There are simply too many variables. On the other hand, it is relevant to see what history shows us about the kinds of backgrounds needed to succeed in the NFL.

No one approach is the end-all-be-all, but at least the numbers help us put these players in context with there soon-to-be NFL peers.


 

Deep Impact: 2012 Free Agents with Most Dramatic Effect on Draft

Projecting the NFL Draft in January, before the February Combine or free agency proves tricky because those top 10 teams in particular, may prefer to solve major roster flaws through proven talent in free agency.

That means without knowing who is signed and who is cut, assigning needs to teams and trying to decide which players teams will target is somewhat of an exercise in futility.

On the other hand, it's really fun to do and people love to read about it.

That being said, there will be free agent movement that we know, without much extrapolation, will impact the NFL Draft. This list is not necessarily in order of importance.

1.) Matt Flynn QB (UFA) Green Bay Packers
The best player at the most important position in the sport (Drew Brees is a free agent, but there's no way he leaves New Orleans). The relative lack of depth at this position in free agency elevates Flynn's worth even further and with so many teams needing a quarterback, the former 7th round pick out of LSU will be be in high demand.

With Andrew Luck a lock at the top of the draft, Robert Griffin III will be a hot trade commodity, as in teams trying to trade up to get him. If a team like Miami or Cleveland locks Flynn up prior to the draft, not only does that have them set at that position, it reduces the value of #2 and #3 picks held by St. Louis and Minnesota respectively, who may be hoping to get a bounty in return from a team hoping to grab RG3.

2.) Vincent Jackson WR (UFA) San Diego Chargers
Jackson is more a representative of the extremely deep group of free agent wide receivers heading into 2012. Wes Welker, Reggie Wayne, DeSean Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, Marques Colton, Stevie Johnson, Brandon Lloyd, Robert Meachem and Mario Manningham are part of a free agent class at a time when the wide receiver position is one of the most valuable in football.

The 2012 Draft has depth as well, but a team like Buffalo may choose not to resign Stevie Johnson in favor of getting a guy like Robert Meachem and drafting someone early. With so many talented players on the market, the relative value of each is decreased both as free agents and potential draft picks. In other words, teams who would otherwise have preferred the value of a draft pick can get a player with proven skills for just a little more money.

With as many as 5 wide receivers considered 1st round quality, keep an eye on free agent wide receivers.

3.) Matt Forte RB (UFA) Chicago Bears 
Without Forte, Chicago's offense was abysmal. In fact, it could be easily argued that Matt Forte was a more important part of the Bear's offense in 2011 than Jay Cutler who was also lost to an injury. Chicago absolutely, positively, without question, must resign him. If I'm Matt Forte, I'm insisting on big-time money because I know how valuable I am to the offense.

However, no one would blame Forte for telling the Bears to shove their contract extension and sign somewhere else. If he does, expect the Bears to be active in the first round with a running back, not to mention if Forte does sign elsewhere, it could effect the stock of Trent Richardson, Lamar Miller and Ryan Wilson who all carry first-round grades.

4.) Cliff Avril DE (UFA) Detroit Lions 
Players like Robert Mathis and John Abraham are also part of the 2012 crop of free-agent pass-rushers, but Avril is only 25 and has by far the most upside in this group. Avril is quick off the edge and agile enough to fit in a 4-3 or 3-4 system where he could be a rush linebacker.

The 2012 class does not have the elite pass-rushers of some year's past although Quinton Coples has #1 overall pick potential and Whitney Mercilus lead FBS in sacks last year. There are only a few elite pass-rushing talents in both the draft and free agency, which means the value of each rises considerably. Expect to see teams trading up to grab their pass-rusher of choice.

5.) Brent Grimes CB (UFA) Atlanta Falcons 
For Atlanta to have any chance to compete with the Saints in the NFC South, they have to keep Brent Grimes. If they can't, he'll be perhaps the most sought after defensive player in free agency. Carlos Rogers, Cortland Finnegan, Brandon Carr and Marcus Trufant are among the other free agents at corner, all of whom are starting caliber players in a league where you can never have too many defensive backs.

Corner is a top-heavy portion of this year's draft with several elite players and then just a bunch of guys. Morris Claiborne, Alfonso Dennard, Dre Kirkpatrick and Janoris Jenkins are top-flight talents, but where they fall may have a lot to do with who moves and who stays in free agency.

Claiborne has to the most to lose as a potential top 3 pick unless St. Louis and Minnesota both choose to address defensive back in free agency.

By the Numbers: Comparing Elite NFL Quarterbacks to 2012 Draft Prospects

Using statistics to project athletes from college to the pros would make a scout's job much easier. Over the years, writers like John Hollinger have come up with formulas to take college basketball players and predict what kind of NBA players they might make.

It's an inexact science to be sure and there is no silver bullet, or scouts would already be using it.

Trying to the do the same with NFL players proves much more difficult because the college and NFL systems a player is in can make a significantly greater difference in football than it does in basketball.

I broke down the top 10 quarterbacks in the NFL this season by different statistical categories. Often, writers will want to use historical context, but given the constant flux of the pro game, using the most up to date information we can provides us the most relevant information.

Given the inherent flaws of gross statistics and even some efficiency statistics, I used QB Rating to pick a "Top 10" for comparison purposes.The following are the Top 10 QB's career college numbers.

Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp % TD:Int YPA Aaron Rodgers  424 656 5,469 43 13 64.70% 3.3:1 8.33 Drew Brees 1026 1628 11,792 90 44 63.00% 2.0:1 7.24 Tom Brady 443 711 5,351 35 19 62.31% 1.8:1 7.52 Tony Romo 560 892 7,816 82 34 62.78% 2.4:1 8.76 Matthew Stafford 564 987 7,731 51 33 57.14% 1.54:1 7.83 Matt Schaub 716 1069 7,502 56 26 66.97% 1.69:1 7.02 Eli Manning 829 1363 10,119 81 34 60.82% 2.38:1 7.42 Matt Ryan 807 1347 9,313 56 37 59.91% 1.51:1 6.91 Alex Smith 389 587 5,203 47 8 66.27% 5.86:1 8.86 Ben Roethlisberger 854 1304 10,829 84 34 65.49% 2.47:1 8.30 Averages 661.2 1054 8,112.50 62.5 28.2 62.68% 2.21:1 7.69

A brief look at the numbers and you'll see Alex Smith is actually the most impressive statistical player on this list. Tom Brady is particularly underwhelming and Ben Roethlisberger is perhaps the most accomplished overall. One of the important lessons of Alex Smith appears to be that without a sufficient sample size, we tend to lose the reliability of these numbers. Smith was wonderfully efficient against mid-major talent and threw by far the fewest passes on this list as the quarterback at Utah. Smith's success this year, however, illustrates my first point about the necessity to put a player in the proper system to succeed. The statistical proficiency of the quarterbacks in college systems vary, but completion percentage and yards per attempt seem like translatable talents as does the ability to score versus the propensity to turn the ball over (TD:INT). In other words, quarterbacks who can't complete high percentages in college, won't change much in the pros. Furthermore, dink and dunk college quarterbacks will be the same game managers in the NFL. Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp % TD:Int YPA Andrew Luck 686 1033 9083 80 21 66.41% 3.81:1 8.79 Robert Griffin III 776 1159 10,071 77 17 66.95% 4.53:1 8.69 Landry Jones 1005 1603 12,218 92 40 62.79% 2.3:1 7.62 Ryan Tannehill 452 725 5,053 41 20 62.34% 2.05:1 6.97 Nick Foles 938 1403 10,068 67 33 66.86% 2.03:1 7.17 Brandon Weeden 737 1060 8,861 72 26 69.53% 2.77:1 8.36 Kirk Cousins 696 1078 8,831 65 27 64.56% 2.41:1 8.19 Ryan Lindley 933 1683 12,277 87 47 55.44% 1.85:1 7.29 Kellen Moore 1131 1624 14,374 140 26 69.64% 5.38:1 8.85 Russell Wilson 888 1464 11,424 107 20 60.66% 5.35:1 7.8

These are the top 10 prospects entering the 2012 NFL Draft at this point. Landry Jones says he hasn't made a decision, but we'll include him for perspective purposes. Right away Andrew Luck and Robbert Griffin III jump off the page. Their efficiency and overall production are well above our composite average from above.Does that mean they'll necessarily be top-level NFL quarterbacks? Of course not. They need the right coach, right system and right players around them. On the other hand, the reliable indicators like completion percentage and YPA appear to be part Luck and RG3's already impressive resume.

Using statistics to reenforce what we see with our eyes is the best way to use statistics when it comes to their predictive powers. If we thought Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin would be excellent NFL quarterbacks and what we found was startlingly below average, it might give us pause.

Looking at the list above, Ryan Tannehill and Nick Foles both seem overrated based on their rankings. The two are big, strong quarterbacks who play on mediocre teams. Neither has a pedigree as big-time winners, nor have they had marquee games to prove their abilities.

That being said, both are well below average when it comes to production, particularly in TD:Int ratio and YPA.

Tannehill is only a two-year starter while Foles has more experience (making his lack of success even more frustrating).

Basically, they are what they are at this point.

Based on the numbers above, he doesn't belong above Brandon Weeden or even Kirk Cousins when it comes to translatable NFL skills like accuracy and driving the ball down the field.

Speaking of Weeden, the Oklahoma State prospect does appear underranked based on these numbers. An interesting doppelganger emerges when you look at these numbers side by side.

	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp %	TD:Int	YPA
Ben Roethlisberger	854	1304	10,829	84	34	65.49%	2.47:1	8.3
Brandon Weeden	737	1060	8,861	72	26	69.53%	2.77:1	8.36

If you take into account the talent-level difference between the Big 12 and the MAC, the two are very similar.

Both are tall, lanky quarterbacks who slide step and move in the pocket to create plays. Weeden, at 28 years-old, doesn't have a ton of upside, but has the experience and maturity that could follow a similar path to Big Ben's with Pittsburgh as he lead them to the playoffs as a rookie.

If I needed a quarterback for the next 10 years, perhaps Tannehill makes more sense because of age and upside, but if I'm an 8-8 team like the Seahawks or a 7-9 team like the Chiefs who may just be a quarterback away from the playoffs next year, I would like Weeden's chances to play right away.

When it comes to interesting similarities though, there is a somewhat shocking pair.

	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp %	TD:Int	YPA
Drew Brees	1026	1628	11,792	90	44	63.00%	2.0:1	7.24
Landry Jones	1005	1603	12,218	92	40	62.79%	2.3:1	7.62

Jones, of course, has put up these numbers as a standing junior. Brees was a senior when he left for the NFL with these Big-10 leading stats.

Oklahoma's signal-caller is more physically gifted, with a bigger frame and stronger arm than Brees. Jones isn't as pinpoint accurate as Brees, but even Brees in San Diego wasn't as accurate or efficient as Brees in New Orleans.

Oklahoma's recent list of NFL quarterbacks isn't exactly a who's who of All-Pro's, but Jones was basically unstoppable with Ryan Broyles before Broyles tore up his knee. Jones is certainly better as a prospect than Blaine Gabbert and there was some discussion he'd the #1 pick last year.

Jones, as a thrower, has as much natural ability as any quarterback in this class and while Griffin put up most of his numbers for middling teams (until this year), Jones has been playing in big games all three years in Norman.

Some uneven play this season has dropped Jones' stock, but he has considered a top 10 pick before the season began.

If we re-ordred the top 10 list based on these numbers it would look more like this:

1.) Andrew Luck
2.) Robert Griffin III
3.) Landry Jones
4.) Brandon Weeden
5.) Kirk Cousins
6.) Nick Foles
7.) Ryan Tannehill
8.) Kellen Moore
9.) Russell Wilson
10.) Ryan Lindley

Lindley couldn't break 60% completing passes in the Mountain West Conference, dropping him down the board and both Moore and Wilson just aren't big enough to rank any higher.

It is interesting to note though, both would be a few spots higher if they were a few inches taller, particularly Moore who has bar far the most impressive stats on the list.

I'm not a fan of expecting dramatic improvement out of players (e.g. Tannehill has to actually show me he can do it before I'll buy that he can), although, we do see guys like Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford outperform their college careers.

College numbers don't tell the whole story, but they do expose important flaws to potential teams. 

2012 NFL Mock Draft 1.0

It's the triumphant return of the Thoughts From My Couch blog. For 12 NFL fanbases, the season continues this weekend and for 20 others, it's time to look toward next year.

With the way teams like the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers have built perennial contenders - through the draft - NFL teams and fans alike are recognizing the importance of getting it right when it comes to April's annual draft.

Just ask the Polian father-son duo who were shown the door in Indy because they failed to restock the Colts with talent around an aging Peyton Manning.


Juniors still have until mid-January to declare and the playoffs will determine final seedings, but it's fun to have an early look. 


These picks reflect my assessment of team needs before free agency and reflect coaching style, draft history and my player rankings.

Until the combine and early indications from free agency, it's too soon to project who will actually take whom. Furthermore, trying to project anything outside of the top 10 or so choices tends to be fruitless since there will always be trades and other assorted craziness on draft night.

This first mock is more about who might fit a need and be of the right value to a team. In other words, if the draft were tomorrow, what might it look like?

1.) Indianapolis Colts (2-14) Andrew Luck QB Stanford

Needs:OL,RB,LB,CB,DT
Andrew Luck is going to have the Colts tweaking the old adage about not passing on a franchise quarterback unless you have one. Indy has a chance to have Peyton Manning Jr. for the next decade if they take Luck and decide to figure the rest out when it comes to Luck and Manning. If the Colts decide Manning and Luck can't co-exist, smart money is on someone paying a bounty for Manning and the Colts rebuilding around a player with the potential be a franchise QB right away. The Luck doubters are growing with the ascension of Baylor's Robert Griffin III, but Luck is the complete package.

2.) St. Louis Rams (2-14) Morris Claiborne CB LSU
Needs: WR,DB,OL,DL
After his performance in the Fiesta Bowl, some reactionary observes may believe Oklahoma State's dynamic receiver Justin Blackmon makes more sense here and USC's Matt Khalil would be the player St. Louis hoped Jason Smith would be. On the other hand, the Rams secondary is unarguably the worst in football. I have Claiborne as the #3 player in the the draft and he may actually be a better cover corner than former LSU star Patrick Peterson (although Peterson was a better athlete). Tryann Mathieu is the headline-grabber in Baton Rouge, but Claiborne is an elite cover corner and in the NFC, with elite offensive skill players, you have to have defenders to match.

3.) Minnesota Vikings (3-13) Matt Khalil OT USC
Needs: OL,DB,WR,DT
Minnesota is in perfect position with the third pick because if the Rams do take Claiborne, the Vikings can take Khalil, or the other way around. Should the Rams take Blackmon, Minnesota would have its pick here and may take Khalil even if Claiborne is on the board. The Vikings offensive line has fallen into disarray on the edges and Khalil is the kind of nimble athlete needed to be an NFL left tackle. Christian Ponder hasn't had time to prove his worth as a franchise signal-caller, but Khalil could be a cornerstone at left tackle to protest whomever the Vikings put under center.


4.) Cleveland Browns (4-12) Trent Richardson RB Alabama
Needs: WR,OL,S,QB,RB
Only two players really make sense here: Richardson or Blackmon. Colt McCoy's uneven performance in his young career could cause the Browns to pick Baylor's sensational junior QB Robert Griffin III, but Richardson is the kind of workhorse back suited for football in Ohio. Richardson is a physical back between the tackles, but is excellent in the screen game and has enough speed to be a homerun threat at the next level. Cleveland is in a position to take the best offensive skill player not named Andrew Luck in this draft. If their offense isn't better after making this pick, they did something really out of the box.

5.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12) Riley Reiff OT Iowa
Needs: DB,LB,OL,WR
My guess is with a strong combine and offseason meetings, Blackmon won't fall much past the top 5 come April. On the other hand, Tampa Bay is undergoing an identity crisis after falling back to earth with a 4-12 season and is in desperate need of some toughness. Reiff is a mauler up front and with a bruising backfield in Tampa, the Bucs could give QB Josh Freeman the ability to play action and make plays outside the pocket. Again, I can't argue with Blackmon in this spot, but offensive line is a safer pick and the new coach of the Bucs can't afford to miss this high.


6.) Washington Redskins (5-11) Robert Griffin III QB Baylor
Needs: QB, DL,WR,CB,OL
A dream scenario for Daniel Snyder and Mike Shanahan. RG3 is the prototype of the new NFL QB: mobile, accurate and efficient. This is a guy who started the season having thrown more touchdowns than incompletions. Washington's defense is solid and the offense, when healthy, is serviceable but it's run by, gulp, Rex Grossman. Shanahan's offense is most effective with a quarterback who can go play action and roll out. Griffin is a magician on the edge, yet is a more polished thrower than Cam Newton was coming out of Auburn. That means the Redskins won't necessarily take a step back if they go with RG3 from Week 1.

7.) Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11) Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State
Needs: WR,DE,RB,DB
In the "needs" section, Jacksonville's should probably read: 'WR,WR,WR,WR.' The Jaguars put out an all-time horrific group of receivers this year and by the end of the season were starting players they'd signed off other team's practice squads. Blaine Gabbert was a major disappointment as a rookie, but throwing to Blackmon could change that in a hurry. Blackmon is the type of big, physical receiver built to be a #1 receiver. If the Cowboy WR is off the board here, North Carolina's DE Quinton Coples is a natural fit.

8.) Carolina Panthers (6-10) Quinton Coples DE North Carolina 
Needs: CB,WR,S, LB, DE
The last time Carolina picked a stud defensive end from North Carolina it worked out. When Julius Peppers left for Chicago, the Panthers lost one of the best defensive players in football and the team's defense hasn't been the same since. Cam Newton captained the biggest offensive turnaround in NFL history from an output standpoint and Coples could really boost an atrocious defense. Coples' game is more Justin Tuck than Julius Peppers as he can rush from both the tackle and end positions. His versatility and power more than makes up for his lack of elite quickness off the corner.

9.) Miami Dolphins (6-10) Jonathan Martin OT Stanford
Needs: LB,QB,TE,WR,S
Miami ended the season as one of the NFL's hottest teams, but with no coach and no certainty about who will be playing QB, their draft strategy is tough to predict. Martin might not even be the best offensive lineman on his own team (David DeCastro is a stud OG), but would be a bookend to the Dolphin's former #1 pick Jake Long. Matt Barkley's return to USC coupled with the Dolphin's own 'SC product Reggie Bush breaking out as a ball-carrier, should have the Dolphins looking to get better upfront. In a division full of weak front seven's, the Dolphins could be bullies upfront.


10.) Buffalo Bills (6-10) Devon Still DT Penn State

Needs: OLB,DL,OL,DB
In the case of the 2012 Buffalo Bills, they are who we thought they were, which is to say: not very good. The offense was explosive and should continue to be, but the defense remains a major question mark for the Bills. Rookie Marcell Dareus was a playmaker for the defense, notching 5.5 sacks from his nose tackle position, but the Bills finished 28th against the run and 30th in point allowed. I've been high on Devon Still all season and he could fit in nicely next to Dareus if they stick with the 3-4 or go back to the 4-3. Still has the height (6-5 307) to be an ideal fit outside as a 5 technique in a 34 system where he isn't asked to shoot gaps. The Bills' pass rush could use some help, but it's too early for a player like Courtney Upshaw. Another instinctive middle linebacker could also help the Bills, but Boston College's Luke Kuechly is very similar to current Bill Nick Barnett and you'd like to have a stronger ILB next to him.   

11.) Kansas City Chiefs (7-9) Luke Kuechly LB Boston College
Needs: WR,S,TE,OL,LB
Former Texas star Derrick Johnson finally broke out for the Chiefs this year in a season glimmering with hope in KC. When the Chiefs handed the Packers their only loss of the season, Kansas City showed the quality of their corners and their outside linebackers are terrors off the edge. In the AFC West though, you have to stop the run and the Chiefs could use a tackling machine like Kuechly to help bolster the front seven. The BC product is instinctive and an underrated athlete attacking downhill. By season's end, the Chiefs might have the best linebacking group in football.

12.) Seattle Seahawks (7-9) Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama
Needs: QB,DL,CB,WR,OL
In a few seasons, we may look back and say, "How did Seattle get Kirkpatrick outside of the top 10?" Kirkpatrick is just a junior for the Crimson Tide, but may be the most purely talented defensive back in the SEC and that's saying something. In Nick Saban's defense he is used in man coverage almost exclusively, flashing the ability to lock down the elite athletes he faces on a regular basis. The Seahawks overachieved this season, but lack elite talent on the edges both offensively and defensively. In a division with weak quarterbacks, Kirkpatrick could be a dynamic player for the Seahawks.

13.) Arizona Cardinals (8-8) David DeCastro G Stanford
Needs: OL,OLB,WR,DB
As disappointing as Kevin Kolb has been for the Cardinals, the offensive line struggled to keep him upright and couldn't consistently open holes for the running game. Investing in Darren Colledge in free agency last year doesn't prevent the Cardinals from taking the best interior lineman in the class. DeCastro isn't as strong as Georgia's Cordy Glenn, but is an adept blocker in both phases and is effective pulling on the corners. Despite Ken Whisenhunt's pedigree as an offensive coach who prides himself on winning in the trenches, that attitude hasn't translated to success on the field. DeCastro's ability to win his individual match-up upfront could help change that.

14.) Dallas Cowboys (8-8) Brandon Thompson DE Clemson
Needs: CB,OL,DL,S
Cowboy fans would love to see a big-name corner at this spot, but the reality is Alfonzo Dennard of Nebraska is a reach here and the top-tier corners will likely be off the board. The dirty little secret in Dallas is that the pass rush has eroded to the point that when Demarcus Ware is blocked, the Cowboys can't generate pressure. Part of the reason is their defensive line is just average. Jay Ratliff is a disruptive nose tackle, but the ends of the 'Boys' 3-4 defense are non-factors. Thompson is explosive off the snap and plays with good anchor in the middle. He flashes the ability to penetrate and make big plays, but doesn't shed blocks effectively enough to do it consistently. In Dallas, he wouldn't have to shoot gaps every play,  but rather play his responsibility and open the field up for Dallas' linebackers.



15.) Philadelphia Eagles (8-8) Courtney Upshaw LB Alabama
Needs: LB,OL,S,RB,WR
There's probably a cliche here about the "Dream Team" turning into a nightmare, but Philadelphia actually played well down the stretch and nearly sneaked into the playoffs. With a loaded roster, the Eagles played soft most of the season and Courtney Upshaw is the type of attitude adjustment Philly could use. While Upshaw's success was mostly at outside linebacker for the Crimson Tide, scouts believe he could play inside in the NFL because of his bruising style, strength and burst. Luke Kuechly would be an ideal fit for the Eagles to play "Mike" in their 43 scheme, but Upshaw could play all over the field for an Eagles defense that likes to be creative. They certainly need some brute force to put on that front seven. 

16.) New York Jets (8-8) Malcolm Floyd WR Notre Dame
Needs: WR,OLB,S,DL,OL
The New York 'Hard Knock' Jets failed once again to live up to Rex Ryan's bombastic predictions in the preseason, due mostly to a wildly inconsistent offense. Mark Sanchez isn't a top-tier quarterback and probably never will be, but his receiving options this year were extremely limited. Floyd isn't the kind of player who is going to stretch the defense with his deep speed, but is a big play threat with his size and strength. He could be a poor man's Larry Fitzgerald at the next level and with the right pieces around him could be productive a la Jordy Nelson in Green Bay. Jeremy Kerley caught on for the Jets as the year came to a close and with Burress and Holmes around him, Floyd could be the kind of reliable receiver Sanchez needs for this Jets offense be successful.

 17.) Bengals F/ Oakland Alfonzo Dennard CB Nebraska 
Needs: S,G,RB,WR,CB
When Leon Hall went out for the Bengals, the defense struggled to make up the difference. Losing Johnathan Joseph to the Texans in free agency was already a big blow, leaving the otherwise stout defense thin in the back line. Dennard isn't on the same level as Claiborne and Kirkpatrick in terms of quickness and ball skills, but Dennard is a physical, strong corner who can play man or zone. The Husker corner isn't the ideal size for an NFL defensive back and lacks top-end speed, but is sudden in short spaces and will be better in zone coverage at the next level. A pick like this on an already solid defense is somewhat of a luxury, but the biggest weaknesses for the Bengals are youth and inexperience, a problem the draft won't fix. The talent is building in Cinci.


18.) San Diego Chargers (8-8) Dont'a Hightower LB Alabama
Needs: LB,CB,OL,WR
Every week I look at the Chargers and where they'll likely be picking in April, I target a linebacker for this San Diego defense. Since Shawne Merriman left, this linebacking group has lacked impact players, becoming a liability in a division predicated on running the ball. Hightower is a leader on one of the best defenses in college football. Hightower has started his freshman year in Tuscaloosa and had a stand-out year for the Tide in 2011, finishing with 81 tackles, 9.5 for loss while being the quarterback of the defense making the calls at the line. Hightower is huge for an inside linebacker (6-4 260) and strong enough to take on NFL guards at the point of attack, but mobile enough to go sideline to sideline. Think Rolando McClain without the crazy.  

19.) Chicago Bears (8-8) Kendall Wright WR Baylor
Needs: OL,WR,TE,CB,LB
Chicago went from a legitimate threat to the Packers in the NFC to a minor league team after Jay Cutler and Matt Forte went down with injury. Even with them, the Bears lack a go-to receiver and even though Kendall Wright lacks ideal size for a #1 receiver, remember that Wright is built nearly identically to division rival Greg Jennings. Wright doesn't pluck the ball the way Jennings does, but the Baylor receiver is similarly explosive with the ball after the catch and will make difficult catches down the sidelines. Wright would allow the Bears to be more creative with how they use Devin Hester, not to mention limiting his snaps to keep him fresh for the return game. 


20.) Tennessee Titans (9-7) Melvin Ingram DE South Carolina
Needs: WR,DL,TE,OL

Derrick Morgan has been an utter disappointment for the Titans who really miss Jason Babin. In the AFC South, generating pressure on the quarterback is a necessity and the Titans don't do it consistently. Ingram has been shooting up draft boards as the season has gone on and the South Carolina defense has improved. Surrounded by elite talent, Ingram has been the key disruptor for the Gamecocks and has played end, tackle and stand-up end. The Titans may opt to grab Jack Locker a weapon like Dwayne Allen, but having Kendall Wright fall is probably what Tennessee would prefer so they can pair him with Kenny Britt.


21.) Denver Broncos (8-8) Dwayne Allen TE Clemson
Needs: WR,DB,DT,RB
Tebow time would probably be sooner if Denver had someone, anyone, to catch the ball. Dwayne Allen is a rare blend of size, speed and power that few in the NFL possess. He can more than hold his own as an in-line blocker, but is also dangerous in the passing game. His game isn't quite Jimmy Graham as a match-up problem, but compares favorably to a player like Heath Miller who could excel against linebackers in man coverage, plus Allen can find the open seams in zones for big plays. A safety like Mark Barron from Alabama would be a welcome addition to the secondary as well.

22.)New York Giants (9-7) Zach Brown LB North Carolina
Needs: OL,CB,LB,RB
The players New York can trot out on their front four give offensive coordinators the shakes, but behind them are a group of below average linebackers who are either out of position or over their heads.Giant defensive backs are nothing to write home about either, but Brown is a much better value here than reaching for a player like Janoris Jenkins from North Alabama. Brown's coaches say he can run a sub 4.3 40 and has the school record for the indoor 60-meter dash. The physicality of the Giants' current front four should mask the lack of power Brown plays with, but his quickness would be an asset both in coverage and as a pass-rusher. 


23.) Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) Whitney Mercilus DE Illinois
Needs: S,G,RB,WR,CB

Another luxury pick at this point for the Bengals given that Cinci already has a really good defense and a maturing offense. Andy Dalton is a quality starter and A.J. Green is special at wide receiver. Cinci generates pressure from every position in the front four, but doesn't have an edge rusher you truly fear. Mercilus was true to his name when it came to handling opposing offenses. The Illini junior lead the nation in sacks and lived in opponent backfields. Mercilus isn't a finished product in terms of technique and would likely need to add strength to anchor as a 4-3 for Cinci, but in terms of pure pass-rush talent, there are few better than Mercilus in this year's class.



24.) Browns F/ Atlanta Landry Jones QB Oklahoma 
Needs: WR,OL,S,QB
Remember what I said about Colt McCoy not being the problem? The difference here is value. Jones is the #17 rated player on the board and would be ranked well ahead of Colt McCoy had they come out in the same draft class. Jones' play for the Sooners dropped off after Ryan Broyles was lost for the year with a knee injury, but Jones was widely considered the #2 QB in this draft before the season began. Jones is a superior pure thrower to McCoy and has a stronger arm to battle the brutal winters in the AFC North. South Carolina WR Alshon Jeffery would be an upgrade at receiver, but is similar to the group of big, slow receivers the Browns already have. Cleveland could reach for a lineman here as well. 

25.) Detroit Lions (10-6) Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama
Needs: OL,DB,LB,WR
Despite the Lions' improved play in the secondary, at least from a turnover standpoint, Detroit still plays in a division with Aaron Rodgers and a conference with Drew Brees, Eli Manning and Matt Ryan all battling in the playoffs this season. That doesn't even account for players like Tony Romo and Mike Vick who can shred defenses. Detroit's passing defense, for as disruptive as their front can be, still ranks 22nd in the league. That means the back end isn't getting it done. Once a top-tier prospect, Jenkins left the Florida program in disgrace. However, the former gator is sudden in and out of breaks, has tremendous ball skills and good instincts. Against the spread offenses in the NFC, even if Jenkins is only a third corner on the Lions, he could play a vital role in shoring up this defense. 


26.) Houston Texans (10-6) Mark Barron S Alabama
Needs: S,WR,OL,DL
A group of young defenders helped the Texans finally break through and get to the playoffs. Even without Mario Williams for much of the season, the Texans were a top 5 defense in every major category. It certainly didn't hurt playing the Colts and Jaguars with their anemic offenses twice this season. Johnathan Joseph turned around a historically bad passing defense, but the safeties in Houston leave plenty to be desired. Barron can play at the line of scrimmage as an eighth defender in the box, but has the speed to play deep as well. The All-American safety could step in for the Texans and start from Week 1. 

27.) Baltimore Ravens (12-4) Zebrie Sanders OT Florida State
Needs: OL,OLB,DB,DL
With Torrey Smith stretching the field and Ray Rice carrying the load, the Baltimore offense can be explosive. Can be. Unfortunately, it isn't always and part of the reason is that the offensive line has been inconsistent all season. Michael Oher seems to have regressed and the Ravens haven't found a suitable tackle opposite him. Sanders is a bit undersized to anchor outside, but with the edge rushers in 3-4 defenses terrorizing the AFC, the Ravens could use a young, athletic tackle to help protect Joe Flacco. The bulk of Cordy Glenn may fit the physical AFC South a little better, but Sanders can add weight whereas Glenn won't become appreciably more agile.

28.) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) Cordy Glenn OL Georgia
Needs: OL,RB,DB,LB
When they're healthy, the Steelers are the most balanced team in the NFL with talent in every phase of the game. Injuries and age have held Pittsburgh back and handcuffed their chances in the AFC. Glenn is a monster of a man with the size to play guard or tackle in the NFL. Unfortunately that size makes him rigid at times and he has a tendency to be lazy with his technique, reaching rather than bending and moving laterally to get better position. On the other hand, you can't teach size and Glenn has that in spades. If you put him out there against the Steeler front 7 in practice every day, he could improve in a hurry.


29.) New Orleans Saints (13-3) Fletcher Cox DT Mississippi State
Needs: DL,LB,DB,OL
Offensively, the Saints are pretty much a juggernaut. You can't put eight in the box to stop the run, but if you rush three and play coverage, Drew Brees will murder you. On defense, though, there are plenty of holes. Aubrayo Franklin and Shaun Rogers are on one-year contracts on the interior and Sedrick Ellis has been disappointing. Fletcher Cox is a fast-rising prospect who has been a force in the SEC. Cox isn't overly agile, but anchors well and can push the pocket upfront. He's also athletic enough to develop a go-to pass-rush move and be a disruptor for New Orleans.


30.) San Francisco 49ers (13-3) Alshon Jeffery WR South Carolina
Needs: CB,S,OLB,OT
Jim Harbaugh's turnaround of San Francisco has been nothing short of astounding and the physicality of the 49ers front on both sides of the ball is unmatched in the NFL. On the other hand, skill players on the edge are few and far between which have lead to struggles in the red zone for this 49er offense. Ashlson Jeffery can change that with his size (6-4 232) and leaping ability. His Hail Mary catch against Nebraska in the Capital One Bowl is a perfect example of his skill set. Not overly sudden or explosive as an athlete, Jeffery would be a solid compliment to Crabtree on the other side with Ted Ginn Jr. in the slot.


31.) New England Patriots (13-3) Andre Branch DE Clemson 
Needs: DE,S,LB,DL,CB
If New England could stop anyone, it might have been chasing perfection along with Green Bay. Both the Patriots and the Packers threatened to be historically bad when it come to defending the pass (the Packers actually wound up being the worst team in history by total yards). Andre Carter had a career renaissance statistically, but was hurt and inconsistent. Branch isn't an ideal 4-3 end, but the Patriots switched back to the 43 front due in large part to the lack of explosive edge rushers on the roster. Branch doesn't anchor well on the edge, but can fly off the corner and create the pressure New England needs to cover the holes in a weak secondary. There are a few quality running backs here with value, but the needs on defense are much worse.

32.) Green Bay Packers (15-1) Ronnell Lewis OLB Oklahoma
Needs: DL,OL,CB,LB
What do you give to a team that has everything? Well, almost everything. The Packers' defense took a big step backward this season after being one of the best in the league last season. Green Bay hasn't been able to get a consistent rush opposite Clay Matthews and it has given opposing quarterbacks too much time to find receivers open against the best ball-hawking secondary in football (by a wide margin). Ronnell Lewis is hardly a finished product, but is the kind of hard-hitting freak athlete who can be an immediate special teams ace (important for Ted Thompson) and situational rusher off the edge for the Pack.