2012 Mock Draft 2.0

The underclassmen have declared, pushing some seniors down the list, while also leaving a loaded class for 2013, particularly at quarterback.

After a surprising week of playoff football, we have a slightly altered order. In this case, it allowed teams like Green Bay to address needs earlier in the draft than anticipated while New England get a higher than expected pick from New Orleans in the Mark Ingram trade. 

Still too early to do any predictive mocking, this is based on consensus prospect ranking and team need. The middle of the first round in particular is kind to teams in terms of marrying value and need. 

I use a tiered ranking system to help teams with multiple needs or those teams without a clear direction based on value. In other words, when a team drafts there is a highest possible tier of players from which they can choose. 

If no needs are satisfied by that pool of players, the drop-off in talent for reaching is weighed against the quality of the talent in the highest tier. 

In some cases, that means teams make luxury picks to accumulate more value (a strategy too few teams actually employ). 

1.) Indianapolis Colts (2-14) Andrew Luck QB Stanford
Needs:OL,RB,LB,CB,DT
This pick is a foregone conclusion given that Colts Owner Jim Irsay has said he'll draft either Luck or Robert Griffin III. Indianapolis has gutted the leadership team, removing both head coach and general manager, an indication the team is ready to rebuild. They couldn't ask for a better player to rebuild with than Andrew Luck, the player some are comparing to John Elway. Luck has a plus arm, though not an elite one in terms of strength. The Stanford quarterback makes up for his lack of top-level arm strength with outstanding accuracy, great timing and tremendous preparation. The Colts have had Peyton Manning for the last decade and a half. It's almost like they get to draft him twice.


2.) St. Louis Rams (2-14) Morris Claiborne CB LSU
Needs: WR,DB,OL,DL
A mess in the secondary and on the edges, St. Louis will have to decide between three franchise players in Claiborne, Oklahoma State's wide receiver Justin Blackmon and Matt Khalil from USC, who was so good he moved 2011 first round pick Tyron Smith to right tackle. Blackmon is a popular pick here for the Rams, but I don't see Jeff Fisher going that direction here. Claiborne may not be Champ Bailey or Darrelle Revis, but he has tremendous fluidity in coverage and solid ball skills. He's a Day 1 starter for this defense and new Defensive Coordinator Gregg Williams will love him knowing one-on-one coverage will hold up amidst the myriad blitz packages Williams will use.


3.) Minnesota Vikings (3-13) Matt Khalil OT USC
Needs: OL,DB,WR,DT
The second and third picks are interesting because they're the most likely places for teams hoping to grab Robert Griffin III to jump. Cleveland may swap picks with St. Louis or a team like Washington could jump up as well. If someone does move into the second spot, there is a chance Minnesota would take Claiborne to combat Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson et al. On the other hand, Khalil is the only true franchise tackle in this draft in my opinion and when you invest a high round pick in a quarterback as the Vikings did with Christian Ponder, you have to make sure he's protected from guys like Julius Peppers and Clay Matthews.

4.) Cleveland Browns (4-12) Trent Richardson RB Alabama
Needs: WR,RB,OL,LB,QB
If Griffin III is available here, I think the Browns think long and hard about it, but my guess is they'd rather not take another quarterback. Colt McCoy is not the problem with the offense in Cleveland, it's that the team just has no weapons for him. Trent Richardson is unequivocally, the best running back prospect to come out of college since Adrian Peterson. His bullish style will warm the hearts of Browns fans who thought Peyton Hillis would be their team's return to the good old days of smash mouth Cleveland running backs. Justin Blackmon also makes sense, but getting Richardson and a lower-tier wide receiver later in the draft has more value than Blackmon and a lower-tier running back.

5.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12) Riley Reiff OT Iowa
Needs: DB,LB,WR,OL
This is not an ideal situation for the Buccaneers because the best player on the board is Justin Blackmon and the Buccaneers have at least competent group of skill players. The Bucs best option may be to take Blackmon and hope Josh Freeman doesn't continue to regress, or they could take Riley Reiff, the only other elite tackle in this draft and help keep Freeman upright. Tampa plays in a division with some terrific offenses and it's defense was a bigger problem last year so Quinton Coples could get a look here, but Reiff makes more sense to try to protect your franchise quarterback.

6.) Washington Redskins (5-11) Robert Griffin III QB Baylor
Needs: QB, DL,WR,CB,OL
Washington likely won't get RG3 if they wait until their original pick to get him. They'll have to trade up and my guess is that they will. With a semi-competent quarterback, the Redskins would have probably won the NFC East, which is saying something considering they beat the eventual champion Giants twice in the regular season. Griffin is not your typical spread college quarterback in that he has great throwing mechanics to go with that dynamic running ability. Robert Griffin III isn't quite Cam Newton, but if he can give the 'Skins a similar offensive boost, the playoffs are a possibility next year.

7.) Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11) Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State
Needs: WR,DE,DB,OLB
Blaine Gabbert was a disappointment last year for the Jaguars, but their skill position players outside of Maurice Jones-Drew were an absolute joke. Blackmon is not quite as explosive as fellow Cowboy wide-out Dez Bryant, but Blackmon has a similar frame and more consistent hands. Bryant may be more naturally talented, but Blackmon is more consistent on and off the field. Just as A.J. Green made Andy Dalton better for the Bengals, Blackmon could do wonders for Gabbert in this Jaguar offense.

8.) Carolina Panthers (6-10) Quinton Coples DE North Carolina 
Needs: CB,WR,S, LB, DE
Getting a corner like Dre Kirkpatrick will be temping here, but getting the best front seven prospect in the draft makes more sense for a defense that was heinous last year. Playing teams like New Orleans and Atlanta twice certainly didn't help, nor did playing the NFC North with the Packers and the Lions on the schedule, but this defense hasn't been the same since Julius Peppers left. Coples was a potential #1 overall pick heading into this season and while he under-performed is still one of the few elite pass-rushers in the draft. Having played defensive tackle as a senior, Coples reminds me a little of Justin Tuck with his lanky frame and ability to be disruptive off the edge and along the interior.

9.) Miami Dolphins (6-10) David DeCastro G Stanford
Needs: QB,WR,S,LB,TE
We'll know a lot more about who to pencil in here after the Dolphins hire a coach. Some offensive names are out there which leads me to believe it's a good bet improving the offensive line will be a priority. An aggressive coach, perhaps Green Bay's OC Joe Philbin, may want to trade up for Robert Griffin III, but the prudent choice is the best interior lineman in the draft to help re-establish Miami as a physical run team. Reggie Bush had a statement season and with a better offensive line, could become an even bigger weapon.


10.) Buffalo Bills (6-10) Devon Still DT Penn State
Needs: OLB,DL,OL,DB
Still isn't a perfect fit for the Bills because he's a raw pass-rusher, but the Penn State product would fit well next to 2011 top pick Marcel Dareus who is the more disruptive of the two. Still, at 6-5, has long arms and can keep blockers engaged so his linebackers can make plays, a critical piece to the 3-4 defense Buffalo runs. If Stevie Johnson isn't re-signed I could see Michael Floyd with this pick or Buffalo could reach for a pass-rusher like Courtney Upshaw.    

11.) Kansas City Chiefs (7-9) Michael Floyd WR Notre Dame
Needs: WR,TE,OL,NT,LB
Floyd has been one of the most dominant receivers in the nation in his time in South Bend. Off the field issues aside, Floyd has an NFL body and is a physical receiver who demands the ball. Dwayne Bowe's time in K.C. may have run out and Jonathan Baldwin's growth was stunted by inconsistency at quarterback. Floyd would also allow Steve Breaston to resume his role as slot receiver extraordinaire and allow the Chiefs to use Dexter McCluster from a number of different positions.

12.) Seattle Seahawks (7-9) Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama
Needs: QB,CB,LB,DE,OL
Did you see the Alabama defense in the National Championship game? Kirkpatrick was a big reason why Nick Saban's defense can play so aggressively upfront. He's relied on to take away his side of the field and does so with regularity. A big, physical corner, Kirkpatrick is a better tackler than Claiborne and has great feel in coverage. Had Landry Jones not decided to return to Norman, he might have been the pick here, but Kirkpatrick is one of the best back end players in the draft and will help Seattle right away.

13.) Arizona Cardinals (8-8) Luke Kuechly LB Boston College
Needs: OL,OLB,WR,DB
Arizona's success next season will primarily hinge on Kevin Kolb's ability to shake off a sluggish first season in Phoenix. If Kolb can't cut it this season, I don't see the Cardinals putting up with it for another season given the price they paid for him. Getting Kolb some field position and defensive stops will help and Kuechly is the kind of cerebral, instinctive player the Cards could use. Kuechly won't win any combine awards for athleticism, but finds the football and tackles extremely well. Arizona has had terrific offensive players over the last few years, but not many defensive ones. Kuechly is a potential Pro Bowl middle linebacker.

14.) Dallas Cowboys (8-8) Michael Brockers DT LSU
Needs: CB,DL,OL,OLB
I couldn't figure out why the so-called experts in the media kept saying Dallas had one of the most talented rosters in football. Frankly, that's just not true. The Cowboy defense, outside of DeMarcus Ware, isn't very good and when Jerry Jones sees the way Michael Brockers plays at his size, I don't see him passing. Brockers is just a sophomore out of Baton Rouge, but is 6-6 304 pounds and uses his hands extremely well for someone as lanky as he is. He's not a pass-rush demon yet, but the athletic ability is there. In terms of his ability to engage and hold the point, he's a great fit for the Cowboys 3-4 defense.

15.) Philadelphia Eagles (8-8) Jonathan Martin OT Stanford
Needs: LB,OL,S,RB,WR
Philly could really use the tackling and toughness of Luke Kuechly, but the Eagels' other major concern last year was keeping their quarterback upright. Winston Justice just isn't a starting NFL tackle and while Jason Peters is solid on the left side, Mike Vick's blindside has been a problem. Martin is a better fight on the right side anyway where he can use his physicality and motor to open running lanes for LeSean McCoy. If Philly ran the 3-4 defense, it's a no-brainer to pick Courtney Upshaw who could play inside and outside, but in a typical 4-3 defense, Upshaw just isn't a good fit.

16.) New York Jets (8-8) Melvin Ingram OLB/DE South Carolina
Needs: WR,OLB,S,DL,OL
Despite their reputation, the Jets defense had a hard time getting to opposing quarterbacks without bringing extra rushers last year. Melvin Ingram could be the answer to Rex Ryan's problems as a versatile disruptor upfront. Ingram has played inside and outside on the defensive line, while also standing up and rushing out of a two-point stance. The Jets could line him up at end or linebacker in their defense and his experience playing tackle will make him effective on loops and stunts pushing the pocket inside. Alabama's outstanding safety Mark Barron would also make sense here.

 17.) Bengals F/ Oakland Mark Barron S Alabama
Needs: S,RB,G,WR,LB
The Carson Palmer trade allows Cincinnati to address their top need with the best player at his position in this year's class. Barron is a tough, physical safety who can play in the box and in coverage. Defensively, the Bengals were one of the most improved units in the league last year, but depth in the secondary is a problem. Barron could be a starter and quality contributor right away.


18.) San Diego Chargers (8-8) Courtney Upshaw OLB Alabama
Needs: LB,CB,OL,WR
This San Diego defense has flat-lined since Jamal Williams and Shawne Merriman left a few years ago. They can't rush the passer, get a stop or even tackle people at this point. Upshaw is just the kind of aggressive, powerful edge rusher the Chargers needs. The Crimson Tide linebacker played as a stand-up rusher in Alabama's incredible defense and is relentless off the edge. Corner would also make sense here but in the AFC West, you need a physical front seven and pass rush is a bigger problem for San Diego.

19.) Chicago Bears (8-8) Kendall Wright WR Baylor
Needs: OL,WR,TE,CB,LB
Even with Jay Cutler and Matt Forte, the Bear offense just isn't very good. They haven't had a legitimate #1 receiver in a long time and even if Matt Forte comes back to Chicago, he can't do it alone. That defense is getting older and could use some help but Kendall Wright can be for the Bears offense what they hoped Devin Hester would be. Wright is quick, explosive and a big play waiting to happen. He's a more natural receiver than Johnny Knox who is still recovering from a back injury. Wright is flying up draft boards, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Bears preferred a bigger body at receiver like Alshon Jeffery.


20.) Tennessee Titans (9-7) Alfonzo Dennard CB Nebraska
Needs: WR,CB,DL,TE,OL

Cortland Finnegan is a free agent and the Titans love tough, physical corners. Dennard does not have top-end speed,  but most of the receivers in the AFC South, Andre Johnson and Reggie Wayne for example, are not burners. Dennard can help a passing defense lacking depth at corner. The pas rush has also been a big issue in Nashville, so someone like Fletcher Cox or Nick Perry would make sense here as well.


21.) Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) Lamar Miller RB Miami (Fla.)
Needs: S,RB,G,WR,LB
Cincinnati has a chance, with two first round picks, to add to their group of young talent. The Bengals hit with A.J. Green and Andy Dalton last year and have built a solid core of talent through the draft for the last few years. The offense would be even better if it had a running back defenses really had to account for. Cedric Benson is a free agent and turns 30 next season, meaning the Bengals need to find a replacement. Miller is a starting-caliber back who runs with good balance and forward lean. He is patient at the point and can explode through holes and always finishes runs.


22.) Browns F/ Atlanta Vontaze Burfict LB Arizona State 
Needs: WR,RB,OL,LB,QB

Cleveland certainly has bigger needs at wide receiver and along the offensive line, but I think with Richardson at the top and Burfict here you send a message to your team that you want tough, physical football players. The Browns would probably have the most punishing offense and defensive players in this draft as Burfict is a thick, aggressive linebacker who loves to hit people. He does have a tendency to let his emotions dictate his play, but just a junior, he has time to mature and channel that aggression into his play. Athletically,  he can play inside or outside and has some pass rush ability making him a versatile piece to Cleveland's improving defense.





23.) Detroit Lions (10-6) Cordy Glenn OL Georgia
Needs: OL,DB,LB,WR
Detroit is one of the most dangerous young teams in the league loaded with talent thanks to some outstanding drafts. Unfortunately for them, this year's class is loaded with defensive lineman and the Lions have one of the best fronts in football. A running back or linebacker may fit a bigger need here, but Glenn was once considered a top prospect and has fallen slightly because of his lack of mobility. One thing you can't teach though, is size and at almost 350 pounds, Glenn has plenty of that. He can play guard or tackle at the next level and could really help Detroit open holes for a running game that has been non-existent lately.



24.) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) Fletcher Cox DT Mississippi
Needs: CB,DL,OL,S,RB
The Steelers lost to the Broncos in part because they played with a patchwork defensive line. Brett Keisel's beard is epic, but he'll be 34 next season and former All-Pro nose tackle Casey Hampton will be 35. Pittsburgh drafted Cameron Heyward last year, but that shouldn't stop them from grabbing Cox, a disruptive tackle in the SEC who can add some youth and athleticism to that Steeler front. An offensive lineman here would also make sense, but it's a little early for someone like Mike Adams or Zebrie Sanders.


25.) Denver Broncos (8-8) Dwayne Allen TE Clemson
Needs: WR,DB,DT,RB
If you're Denver, your top priority has to be to get Tim Tebow more weapons. Demaryius Thomas has shown flashes of his talent while Erick Decker and Eddie Royal are solid compliments. Getting Tebow a tight end who can both block and be a receiving threat would be huge for this offense given how much responsibility the tight end will have in the run game. Allen reminds me of a slightly more athletic Heath Miller in that he isn't going to dominate the way Rob Gronkowski will, but can win his 1-on-1 match-ups and will be a reliable blocker for you as well.

26.) Houston Texans (10-6) Alshon Jeffery WR South Carolina
Needs: S,WR,OL,DL
Houston has a chance to be scary good next season if they can add a threat opposite Andre Johnson. The defense took a huge step forward with an outstanding 2011 draft and the addition of Johnathan Joseph. The Texan running game is dominant and with defenses keying on Andre Johnson, Houston needs a second receiver who can be a threat. Jeffery has a frame like Calvin Johnson plus a similar pedigree and background. Not overly fast, Jeffery can win against man coverage due to his size and long arms. He will get plenty of 1-on-1 opportunities in this offense as long as Johnson is on the field opposite him.

27.) Patriots F/ New Orleans Nick Perry OLB/DE USC
Needs:DE,S,LB,DL,CB
If not for a meaningless Week 17 game for the Packers, the Patriots might have wound up with the worst passing defense ever statistically speaking. The pass rush was anemic most of the season and even though a few players stepped up as the year wore on, the Patriots need help on D. Nick Perry declared early out of USC and is still somewhat raw as a pass rusher. Physically, however, and as an athlete, Perry can be a difference-maker for the Patriots. He could play defensive end or linebacker depending on the defensive alignment and could allow the Patriots to go to back to a 3-4 defense, a scheme they abandoned basically because they didn't have the linebackers to make it work.

28.) Green Bay Packers (15-1) Whitney Mercilus OLB/DE Illinois
Needs: OLB,OL,CB,DL
There's really only one place the Packers can go in the first round and that is an impact pass-rusher. Whether it's a defensive lineman or linebacker, Green Bay has to get someone to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks because the Packer defensive backs are the best in the league at making quarterbacks pay for throws that are just slightly off. Whitney Mercilus had 16 sacks to lead the nation and forced an amazing 9 fumbles playing against some elite offensive linemen in the Big 10. Amazingly, he's still raw as a pass rush technician and has relied mostly on athletic ability and will. He doesn't have great explosion or closing speed, but with Clay Matthews opposite him, Mercilus will get a ton of 1-on-1 opportunities and should be able to make the most of them.



29.) New York Giants (9-7) Mike Adams OT Ohio State
Needs: OL,CB,LB,RB
Despite playing exceptionally well against the Packers, New York's secondary is not exceedingly talented and could use an upgrade. On the other hand, Eli Manning has an outstanding group of receivers and with a more consistent running game, could really keep the Giants in the thick of the NFC. Getting some help for an aging offensive line group would help. Adams certainly has left tackle talent and does a solid job in pass protection using his hands and walling off defenders. Not overly assertive in the run game, Adams doesn't quite have that bullish demeanor you'd like an elite tackle to have. Luckily for New York, they have two running backs who more than make up for it with their physical running style.



30.) Baltimore Ravens (12-4) Peter Konz C Wisconsin
Needs: OL,OLB,DB,RB
John Harbaugh has to be pleased with where his roster is heading into 2012. Baltimore is heading to the AFC Championship game and has some emerging offensive play-makers. However, at a few positions, the Ravens are getting long in the tooth and Matt Birk's time in the league is coming to an end. Peter Konz is one of the best interior lineman in the draft and could be cornerstone of this offense with Joe Flacco and Ray Rice for many years. Konz is a smart, physical offensive lineman and has the leadership skills you look for in a player having to make protection calls at the line. Athletically, he can pull and move around, allowing Cam Cameron to use his creativity in the Ravens' play-calling.

31.) San Francisco 49ers (13-3) Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama
Needs: CB,S,OLB,OT
San Francisco has a loaded roster and the defense was one of the best in the last decade. On the other hand, the 49ers have a below average pass defense and ranked near the bottom of the league statistically for most of the year. In the divisional round against the Saints, that defense forced 5 turnovers (dropped at least 2 other interceptions) and the Saints still scored 32 points. Carlos Rogers had a great season for the 'Niners but depth in the secondary is a concern, especially if this team expects to consistently compete against passing teams like the Saints, Lions and Packers in the NFC. Jenkins is a Florida transfer with five-star talent and five-star attitude issues. If there's a player who can get Jenkins' head right and maximize his talent, it's Jim Harbaugh.

32.) New England Patriots (13-3) Dontari Poe DT Memphis
Needs: DE,S,LB,DL,CB
Not only was New England's defense awful against the pass, it was 17th against the rush and it probably would have been worse if New England's offense hadn't been so prolific. Imagine trying to run against almost 700 total pounds of Vince Wilfork and Dontari Poe. The only true nose tackle in the draft, Poe is surprisingly agile for a man his size (6-5 350) and can really push the pocket inside. Poe would be an ideal fit to replace Wilfork should the Patriots decide to go back to the 3-4, or pair with Wilfork inside in a 4-3 set. New England's secondary remains an issue, but the Patriots won a Super Bowl with Troy Brown at quarterback because their front seven was so good. Expect Bill Belichik to focus on improving that unit first.