With the way teams like the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers have built perennial contenders - through the draft - NFL teams and fans alike are recognizing the importance of getting it right when it comes to April's annual draft.
Just ask the Polian father-son duo who were shown the door in Indy because they failed to restock the Colts with talent around an aging Peyton Manning.
Juniors still have until mid-January to declare and the playoffs will determine final seedings, but it's fun to have an early look.
These picks reflect my assessment of team needs before free agency and reflect coaching style, draft history and my player rankings.
Until the combine and early indications from free agency, it's too soon to project who will actually take whom. Furthermore, trying to project anything outside of the top 10 or so choices tends to be fruitless since there will always be trades and other assorted craziness on draft night.
This first mock is more about who might fit a need and be of the right value to a team. In other words, if the draft were tomorrow, what might it look like?
1.) Indianapolis Colts (2-14) Andrew Luck QB Stanford
Needs:OL,RB,LB,CB,DT
Andrew Luck is going to have the Colts tweaking the old adage about not passing on a franchise quarterback unless you have one. Indy has a chance to have Peyton Manning Jr. for the next decade if they take Luck and decide to figure the rest out when it comes to Luck and Manning. If the Colts decide Manning and Luck can't co-exist, smart money is on someone paying a bounty for Manning and the Colts rebuilding around a player with the potential be a franchise QB right away. The Luck doubters are growing with the ascension of Baylor's Robert Griffin III, but Luck is the complete package.
2.) St. Louis Rams (2-14) Morris Claiborne CB LSU
Needs: WR,DB,OL,DL
After his performance in the Fiesta Bowl, some reactionary observes may believe Oklahoma State's dynamic receiver Justin Blackmon makes more sense here and USC's Matt Khalil would be the player St. Louis hoped Jason Smith would be. On the other hand, the Rams secondary is unarguably the worst in football. I have Claiborne as the #3 player in the the draft and he may actually be a better cover corner than former LSU star Patrick Peterson (although Peterson was a better athlete). Tryann Mathieu is the headline-grabber in Baton Rouge, but Claiborne is an elite cover corner and in the NFC, with elite offensive skill players, you have to have defenders to match.
3.) Minnesota Vikings (3-13) Matt Khalil OT USC
Needs: OL,DB,WR,DT
Minnesota is in perfect position with the third pick because if the Rams do take Claiborne, the Vikings can take Khalil, or the other way around. Should the Rams take Blackmon, Minnesota would have its pick here and may take Khalil even if Claiborne is on the board. The Vikings offensive line has fallen into disarray on the edges and Khalil is the kind of nimble athlete needed to be an NFL left tackle. Christian Ponder hasn't had time to prove his worth as a franchise signal-caller, but Khalil could be a cornerstone at left tackle to protest whomever the Vikings put under center.
4.) Cleveland Browns (4-12) Trent Richardson RB Alabama
Needs: WR,OL,S,QB,RB
Only two players really make sense here: Richardson or Blackmon. Colt McCoy's uneven performance in his young career could cause the Browns to pick Baylor's sensational junior QB Robert Griffin III, but Richardson is the kind of workhorse back suited for football in Ohio. Richardson is a physical back between the tackles, but is excellent in the screen game and has enough speed to be a homerun threat at the next level. Cleveland is in a position to take the best offensive skill player not named Andrew Luck in this draft. If their offense isn't better after making this pick, they did something really out of the box.
5.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12) Riley Reiff OT Iowa
Needs: DB,LB,OL,WR
My guess is with a strong combine and offseason meetings, Blackmon won't fall much past the top 5 come April. On the other hand, Tampa Bay is undergoing an identity crisis after falling back to earth with a 4-12 season and is in desperate need of some toughness. Reiff is a mauler up front and with a bruising backfield in Tampa, the Bucs could give QB Josh Freeman the ability to play action and make plays outside the pocket. Again, I can't argue with Blackmon in this spot, but offensive line is a safer pick and the new coach of the Bucs can't afford to miss this high.
6.) Washington Redskins (5-11) Robert Griffin III QB Baylor
Needs: QB, DL,WR,CB,OL
A dream scenario for Daniel Snyder and Mike Shanahan. RG3 is the prototype of the new NFL QB: mobile, accurate and efficient. This is a guy who started the season having thrown more touchdowns than incompletions. Washington's defense is solid and the offense, when healthy, is serviceable but it's run by, gulp, Rex Grossman. Shanahan's offense is most effective with a quarterback who can go play action and roll out. Griffin is a magician on the edge, yet is a more polished thrower than Cam Newton was coming out of Auburn. That means the Redskins won't necessarily take a step back if they go with RG3 from Week 1.
7.) Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11) Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State
Needs: WR,DE,RB,DB
In the "needs" section, Jacksonville's should probably read: 'WR,WR,WR,WR.' The Jaguars put out an all-time horrific group of receivers this year and by the end of the season were starting players they'd signed off other team's practice squads. Blaine Gabbert was a major disappointment as a rookie, but throwing to Blackmon could change that in a hurry. Blackmon is the type of big, physical receiver built to be a #1 receiver. If the Cowboy WR is off the board here, North Carolina's DE Quinton Coples is a natural fit.
8.) Carolina Panthers (6-10) Quinton Coples DE North Carolina
Needs: CB,WR,S, LB, DE
The last time Carolina picked a stud defensive end from North Carolina it worked out. When Julius Peppers left for Chicago, the Panthers lost one of the best defensive players in football and the team's defense hasn't been the same since. Cam Newton captained the biggest offensive turnaround in NFL history from an output standpoint and Coples could really boost an atrocious defense. Coples' game is more Justin Tuck than Julius Peppers as he can rush from both the tackle and end positions. His versatility and power more than makes up for his lack of elite quickness off the corner.
9.) Miami Dolphins (6-10) Jonathan Martin OT Stanford
Needs: LB,QB,TE,WR,S
Miami ended the season as one of the NFL's hottest teams, but with no coach and no certainty about who will be playing QB, their draft strategy is tough to predict. Martin might not even be the best offensive lineman on his own team (David DeCastro is a stud OG), but would be a bookend to the Dolphin's former #1 pick Jake Long. Matt Barkley's return to USC coupled with the Dolphin's own 'SC product Reggie Bush breaking out as a ball-carrier, should have the Dolphins looking to get better upfront. In a division full of weak front seven's, the Dolphins could be bullies upfront.
10.) Buffalo Bills (6-10) Devon Still DT Penn State
Needs: OLB,DL,OL,DB
In the case of the 2012 Buffalo Bills, they are who we thought they were, which is to say: not very good. The offense was explosive and should continue to be, but the defense remains a major question mark for the Bills. Rookie Marcell Dareus was a playmaker for the defense, notching 5.5 sacks from his nose tackle position, but the Bills finished 28th against the run and 30th in point allowed. I've been high on Devon Still all season and he could fit in nicely next to Dareus if they stick with the 3-4 or go back to the 4-3. Still has the height (6-5 307) to be an ideal fit outside as a 5 technique in a 34 system where he isn't asked to shoot gaps. The Bills' pass rush could use some help, but it's too early for a player like Courtney Upshaw. Another instinctive middle linebacker could also help the Bills, but Boston College's Luke Kuechly is very similar to current Bill Nick Barnett and you'd like to have a stronger ILB next to him.
11.) Kansas City Chiefs (7-9) Luke Kuechly LB Boston College
Needs: WR,S,TE,OL,LB
Former Texas star Derrick Johnson finally broke out for the Chiefs this year in a season glimmering with hope in KC. When the Chiefs handed the Packers their only loss of the season, Kansas City showed the quality of their corners and their outside linebackers are terrors off the edge. In the AFC West though, you have to stop the run and the Chiefs could use a tackling machine like Kuechly to help bolster the front seven. The BC product is instinctive and an underrated athlete attacking downhill. By season's end, the Chiefs might have the best linebacking group in football.
12.) Seattle Seahawks (7-9) Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama
Needs: QB,DL,CB,WR,OL
In a few seasons, we may look back and say, "How did Seattle get Kirkpatrick outside of the top 10?" Kirkpatrick is just a junior for the Crimson Tide, but may be the most purely talented defensive back in the SEC and that's saying something. In Nick Saban's defense he is used in man coverage almost exclusively, flashing the ability to lock down the elite athletes he faces on a regular basis. The Seahawks overachieved this season, but lack elite talent on the edges both offensively and defensively. In a division with weak quarterbacks, Kirkpatrick could be a dynamic player for the Seahawks.
13.) Arizona Cardinals (8-8) David DeCastro G Stanford
Needs: OL,OLB,WR,DB
As disappointing as Kevin Kolb has been for the Cardinals, the offensive line struggled to keep him upright and couldn't consistently open holes for the running game. Investing in Darren Colledge in free agency last year doesn't prevent the Cardinals from taking the best interior lineman in the class. DeCastro isn't as strong as Georgia's Cordy Glenn, but is an adept blocker in both phases and is effective pulling on the corners. Despite Ken Whisenhunt's pedigree as an offensive coach who prides himself on winning in the trenches, that attitude hasn't translated to success on the field. DeCastro's ability to win his individual match-up upfront could help change that.
14.) Dallas Cowboys (8-8) Brandon Thompson DE Clemson
Needs: CB,OL,DL,S
Cowboy fans would love to see a big-name corner at this spot, but the reality is Alfonzo Dennard of Nebraska is a reach here and the top-tier corners will likely be off the board. The dirty little secret in Dallas is that the pass rush has eroded to the point that when Demarcus Ware is blocked, the Cowboys can't generate pressure. Part of the reason is their defensive line is just average. Jay Ratliff is a disruptive nose tackle, but the ends of the 'Boys' 3-4 defense are non-factors. Thompson is explosive off the snap and plays with good anchor in the middle. He flashes the ability to penetrate and make big plays, but doesn't shed blocks effectively enough to do it consistently. In Dallas, he wouldn't have to shoot gaps every play, but rather play his responsibility and open the field up for Dallas' linebackers.
15.) Philadelphia Eagles (8-8) Courtney Upshaw LB Alabama
Needs: LB,OL,S,RB,WR
There's probably a cliche here about the "Dream Team" turning into a nightmare, but Philadelphia actually played well down the stretch and nearly sneaked into the playoffs. With a loaded roster, the Eagles played soft most of the season and Courtney Upshaw is the type of attitude adjustment Philly could use. While Upshaw's success was mostly at outside linebacker for the Crimson Tide, scouts believe he could play inside in the NFL because of his bruising style, strength and burst. Luke Kuechly would be an ideal fit for the Eagles to play "Mike" in their 43 scheme, but Upshaw could play all over the field for an Eagles defense that likes to be creative. They certainly need some brute force to put on that front seven.
16.) New York Jets (8-8) Malcolm Floyd WR Notre Dame
Needs: WR,OLB,S,DL,OL
The New York 'Hard Knock' Jets failed once again to live up to Rex Ryan's bombastic predictions in the preseason, due mostly to a wildly inconsistent offense. Mark Sanchez isn't a top-tier quarterback and probably never will be, but his receiving options this year were extremely limited. Floyd isn't the kind of player who is going to stretch the defense with his deep speed, but is a big play threat with his size and strength. He could be a poor man's Larry Fitzgerald at the next level and with the right pieces around him could be productive a la Jordy Nelson in Green Bay. Jeremy Kerley caught on for the Jets as the year came to a close and with Burress and Holmes around him, Floyd could be the kind of reliable receiver Sanchez needs for this Jets offense be successful.
17.) Bengals F/ Oakland Alfonzo Dennard CB Nebraska
Needs: S,G,RB,WR,CB
When Leon Hall went out for the Bengals, the defense struggled to make up the difference. Losing Johnathan Joseph to the Texans in free agency was already a big blow, leaving the otherwise stout defense thin in the back line. Dennard isn't on the same level as Claiborne and Kirkpatrick in terms of quickness and ball skills, but Dennard is a physical, strong corner who can play man or zone. The Husker corner isn't the ideal size for an NFL defensive back and lacks top-end speed, but is sudden in short spaces and will be better in zone coverage at the next level. A pick like this on an already solid defense is somewhat of a luxury, but the biggest weaknesses for the Bengals are youth and inexperience, a problem the draft won't fix. The talent is building in Cinci.
18.) San Diego Chargers (8-8) Dont'a Hightower LB Alabama
Needs: LB,CB,OL,WR
Every week I look at the Chargers and where they'll likely be picking in April, I target a linebacker for this San Diego defense. Since Shawne Merriman left, this linebacking group has lacked impact players, becoming a liability in a division predicated on running the ball. Hightower is a leader on one of the best defenses in college football. Hightower has started his freshman year in Tuscaloosa and had a stand-out year for the Tide in 2011, finishing with 81 tackles, 9.5 for loss while being the quarterback of the defense making the calls at the line. Hightower is huge for an inside linebacker (6-4 260) and strong enough to take on NFL guards at the point of attack, but mobile enough to go sideline to sideline. Think Rolando McClain without the crazy.
19.) Chicago Bears (8-8) Kendall Wright WR Baylor
Needs: OL,WR,TE,CB,LB
Chicago went from a legitimate threat to the Packers in the NFC to a minor league team after Jay Cutler and Matt Forte went down with injury. Even with them, the Bears lack a go-to receiver and even though Kendall Wright lacks ideal size for a #1 receiver, remember that Wright is built nearly identically to division rival Greg Jennings. Wright doesn't pluck the ball the way Jennings does, but the Baylor receiver is similarly explosive with the ball after the catch and will make difficult catches down the sidelines. Wright would allow the Bears to be more creative with how they use Devin Hester, not to mention limiting his snaps to keep him fresh for the return game.
20.) Tennessee Titans (9-7) Melvin Ingram DE South Carolina
Needs: WR,DL,TE,OL
Derrick Morgan has been an utter disappointment for the Titans who really miss Jason Babin. In the AFC South, generating pressure on the quarterback is a necessity and the Titans don't do it consistently. Ingram has been shooting up draft boards as the season has gone on and the South Carolina defense has improved. Surrounded by elite talent, Ingram has been the key disruptor for the Gamecocks and has played end, tackle and stand-up end. The Titans may opt to grab Jack Locker a weapon like Dwayne Allen, but having Kendall Wright fall is probably what Tennessee would prefer so they can pair him with Kenny Britt.
21.) Denver Broncos (8-8) Dwayne Allen TE Clemson
Needs: WR,DB,DT,RB
Tebow time would probably be sooner if Denver had someone, anyone, to catch the ball. Dwayne Allen is a rare blend of size, speed and power that few in the NFL possess. He can more than hold his own as an in-line blocker, but is also dangerous in the passing game. His game isn't quite Jimmy Graham as a match-up problem, but compares favorably to a player like Heath Miller who could excel against linebackers in man coverage, plus Allen can find the open seams in zones for big plays. A safety like Mark Barron from Alabama would be a welcome addition to the secondary as well.
22.)New York Giants (9-7) Zach Brown LB North Carolina
Needs: OL,CB,LB,RB
The players New York can trot out on their front four give offensive coordinators the shakes, but behind them are a group of below average linebackers who are either out of position or over their heads.Giant defensive backs are nothing to write home about either, but Brown is a much better value here than reaching for a player like Janoris Jenkins from North Alabama. Brown's coaches say he can run a sub 4.3 40 and has the school record for the indoor 60-meter dash. The physicality of the Giants' current front four should mask the lack of power Brown plays with, but his quickness would be an asset both in coverage and as a pass-rusher.
23.) Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) Whitney Mercilus DE Illinois
Needs: S,G,RB,WR,CB
Another luxury pick at this point for the Bengals given that Cinci already has a really good defense and a maturing offense. Andy Dalton is a quality starter and A.J. Green is special at wide receiver. Cinci generates pressure from every position in the front four, but doesn't have an edge rusher you truly fear. Mercilus was true to his name when it came to handling opposing offenses. The Illini junior lead the nation in sacks and lived in opponent backfields. Mercilus isn't a finished product in terms of technique and would likely need to add strength to anchor as a 4-3 for Cinci, but in terms of pure pass-rush talent, there are few better than Mercilus in this year's class.
24.) Browns F/ Atlanta Landry Jones QB Oklahoma
Needs: WR,OL,S,QB
Remember what I said about Colt McCoy not being the problem? The difference here is value. Jones is the #17 rated player on the board and would be ranked well ahead of Colt McCoy had they come out in the same draft class. Jones' play for the Sooners dropped off after Ryan Broyles was lost for the year with a knee injury, but Jones was widely considered the #2 QB in this draft before the season began. Jones is a superior pure thrower to McCoy and has a stronger arm to battle the brutal winters in the AFC North. South Carolina WR Alshon Jeffery would be an upgrade at receiver, but is similar to the group of big, slow receivers the Browns already have. Cleveland could reach for a lineman here as well.
25.) Detroit Lions (10-6) Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama
Needs: OL,DB,LB,WR
Despite the Lions' improved play in the secondary, at least from a turnover standpoint, Detroit still plays in a division with Aaron Rodgers and a conference with Drew Brees, Eli Manning and Matt Ryan all battling in the playoffs this season. That doesn't even account for players like Tony Romo and Mike Vick who can shred defenses. Detroit's passing defense, for as disruptive as their front can be, still ranks 22nd in the league. That means the back end isn't getting it done. Once a top-tier prospect, Jenkins left the Florida program in disgrace. However, the former gator is sudden in and out of breaks, has tremendous ball skills and good instincts. Against the spread offenses in the NFC, even if Jenkins is only a third corner on the Lions, he could play a vital role in shoring up this defense.
26.) Houston Texans (10-6) Mark Barron S Alabama
Needs: S,WR,OL,DL
A group of young defenders helped the Texans finally break through and get to the playoffs. Even without Mario Williams for much of the season, the Texans were a top 5 defense in every major category. It certainly didn't hurt playing the Colts and Jaguars with their anemic offenses twice this season. Johnathan Joseph turned around a historically bad passing defense, but the safeties in Houston leave plenty to be desired. Barron can play at the line of scrimmage as an eighth defender in the box, but has the speed to play deep as well. The All-American safety could step in for the Texans and start from Week 1.
27.) Baltimore Ravens (12-4) Zebrie Sanders OT Florida State
Needs: OL,OLB,DB,DL
With Torrey Smith stretching the field and Ray Rice carrying the load, the Baltimore offense can be explosive. Can be. Unfortunately, it isn't always and part of the reason is that the offensive line has been inconsistent all season. Michael Oher seems to have regressed and the Ravens haven't found a suitable tackle opposite him. Sanders is a bit undersized to anchor outside, but with the edge rushers in 3-4 defenses terrorizing the AFC, the Ravens could use a young, athletic tackle to help protect Joe Flacco. The bulk of Cordy Glenn may fit the physical AFC South a little better, but Sanders can add weight whereas Glenn won't become appreciably more agile.
28.) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) Cordy Glenn OL Georgia
Needs: OL,RB,DB,LB
When they're healthy, the Steelers are the most balanced team in the NFL with talent in every phase of the game. Injuries and age have held Pittsburgh back and handcuffed their chances in the AFC. Glenn is a monster of a man with the size to play guard or tackle in the NFL. Unfortunately that size makes him rigid at times and he has a tendency to be lazy with his technique, reaching rather than bending and moving laterally to get better position. On the other hand, you can't teach size and Glenn has that in spades. If you put him out there against the Steeler front 7 in practice every day, he could improve in a hurry.
29.) New Orleans Saints (13-3) Fletcher Cox DT Mississippi State
Needs: DL,LB,DB,OL
Offensively, the Saints are pretty much a juggernaut. You can't put eight in the box to stop the run, but if you rush three and play coverage, Drew Brees will murder you. On defense, though, there are plenty of holes. Aubrayo Franklin and Shaun Rogers are on one-year contracts on the interior and Sedrick Ellis has been disappointing. Fletcher Cox is a fast-rising prospect who has been a force in the SEC. Cox isn't overly agile, but anchors well and can push the pocket upfront. He's also athletic enough to develop a go-to pass-rush move and be a disruptor for New Orleans.
30.) San Francisco 49ers (13-3) Alshon Jeffery WR South Carolina
Needs: CB,S,OLB,OT
Jim Harbaugh's turnaround of San Francisco has been nothing short of astounding and the physicality of the 49ers front on both sides of the ball is unmatched in the NFL. On the other hand, skill players on the edge are few and far between which have lead to struggles in the red zone for this 49er offense. Ashlson Jeffery can change that with his size (6-4 232) and leaping ability. His Hail Mary catch against Nebraska in the Capital One Bowl is a perfect example of his skill set. Not overly sudden or explosive as an athlete, Jeffery would be a solid compliment to Crabtree on the other side with Ted Ginn Jr. in the slot.
31.) New England Patriots (13-3) Andre Branch DE Clemson
Needs: DE,S,LB,DL,CB
If New England could stop anyone, it might have been chasing perfection along with Green Bay. Both the Patriots and the Packers threatened to be historically bad when it come to defending the pass (the Packers actually wound up being the worst team in history by total yards). Andre Carter had a career renaissance statistically, but was hurt and inconsistent. Branch isn't an ideal 4-3 end, but the Patriots switched back to the 43 front due in large part to the lack of explosive edge rushers on the roster. Branch doesn't anchor well on the edge, but can fly off the corner and create the pressure New England needs to cover the holes in a weak secondary. There are a few quality running backs here with value, but the needs on defense are much worse.
32.) Green Bay Packers (15-1) Ronnell Lewis OLB Oklahoma
Needs: DL,OL,CB,LB
What do you give to a team that has everything? Well, almost everything. The Packers' defense took a big step backward this season after being one of the best in the league last season. Green Bay hasn't been able to get a consistent rush opposite Clay Matthews and it has given opposing quarterbacks too much time to find receivers open against the best ball-hawking secondary in football (by a wide margin). Ronnell Lewis is hardly a finished product, but is the kind of hard-hitting freak athlete who can be an immediate special teams ace (important for Ted Thompson) and situational rusher off the edge for the Pack.
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