Aerial Assault: 2012 Draft Wide Receivers in Statistical Perspective

Last week, I took a look at a statistical look at quarterback prospects in the 2012 compared to elite NFL quarterbacks.

What I found was some interesting similarities among pro and college signal-callers as well as some troubling statistics about would-be draft picks.

I took a similar approach with this year's wide receiver group, although finding efficiency metrics for wide receivers without becoming too detailed can be difficult.

Using something like targets and completed catches, to me, is a flawed metric for college evaluations because top-level wide receivers are often relied upon more to make individual plays than the NFL.

A college quarterback, figuring his guy always has a mismatch, will throw more intro coverage and traffic to an elite wide receiver than the NFL, simply because most of the time, the receivers are just better than the corners.

As I broke down the collegiate numbers of elite NFL wide receivers (I used yards per catch for receivers with 60 or more catches in the NFL this season to determine which receivers to include), there were some interesting trends.

	Catches	Yards	Average	TD	TD%	C/G	Y/G
Victor Cruz	130	1932	14.86	11	8.5	5.9	87.8
Jordy Nelson	206	2822	13.7	20	9.7	6.4	88.2
Vincent Jackson	146	2844	19.48	32	21.9	6.6	129.3
Larry Fitzgerald	161	2677	16.62	34	21.2	6.2	103
Steve Smith	78	1603	20.55	12	15.4	3.7	76.3
Calvin Johnson	178	2927	16.44	28	15.7	4.7	77
Mike Wallace	101	1910	19.91	15	14.9	2.7	51.6
A.J. Green	166	2619	15.77	23	13.9	5.2	81.8
Antonio Brown	307	3208	10.44	22	7.2	7.1	74.6
Hakeem Nicks	181	2840	15.69	21	11.6	5.2	81.1
Darius Heyward-Bey	138	2089	15.14	13	9.4	3.7	56.5
Brandon Marshall	110	1656	15.05	13	11.8	4.4	66.2
Dez Bryant	147	2425	16.5	29	19.7	5.57	93.3
Dwayne Bowe	154	2403	15.6	26	17.1	3.5	54.6
Marques Colston	182	2834	15.57	18	9.9	4.55	70.85
Greg Jennings	238	3539	14.87	39	16.4	5.7	84.3
Andre Johnson	92	1831	19.9	20	21.8	2.7	53.9
Wes Welker	259	3069	11.85	21	8.1	5.2	61.4

The top 14 are the players who qualified under my above requirements. I added Jennings and Johnson, two elite receivers whose numbers were hurt by injury this year.

I also added Welker for the sake of argument, although, in my opinion, without the Patriot system, he's no where near this conversation.

In terms of physicality, the average player in this pool was 6'2 1/2, 211 pounds. Interestingly, 7 of the 17 players on this list are from non-AQ conferences, but 7 of the remaining 10 came from either the SEC or the ACC.

In fact, there's not one Big 10 receiver on this list (Paging Nick Toon).

As far as the production goes, there are numbers all over the place in terms of catches, yards, touchdowns and the efficiency per game numbers.

The most consistent statistic here is average. If you eliminate my three additions (none of whom would have qualified under my parameters) only 3 of the 17 players have a college yard per catch average below 15 and one of them is Victor Cruz at 14.86.

Now remember from our discussion about quarterbacks that these numbers are not predictive. A yard per catch average above 15 does not necessitate NFL success, but it's important to point out that it is, by far, the most consistent characteristic all of these receivers share.

Furthermore, 3 of the top 4 averages on this list are also in the top 7 in NFL yard per catch.

Players like Jordy Nelson and Nelson Cruz, the second of whom lead the league in average, are proof that a lack of success in college won't preclude success in the NFL. On the other hand, both are surrounded by elite offensive talent and play for Super Bowl MVP quarterbacks.

The second and perhaps more appealing metric may help show why players like Nelson and Cruz have had success in the NFL despite not being wildly efficient in college.

Look at what happens to this receiver group if we rank them by the percentage of catches they made also resulting in touchdowns.

1.) Vincent Jackson
2.) Andre Johnson
3.) Larry Fitzgerald
4.) Dez Bryant
5.) Dwayne Bowe
6.) Greg Jennings
7.) Calvin Johnson
8.) Steve Smith
9.) Mike Wallace
10.) A.J. Green

Basically, you have the 10 best receivers in football on that list. The reason is because the metric mixes efficiency with effect on the game. There's no bigger way a receiver can impact a game than with a touchdown.

That statistic measures the frequency without which a receiver is able to impact the game by doing more more just putting up yards.

Notice too, the receivers at the bottom of the list, guys like Nelson, Cruz, Brown Welker and Colston, all of them play in prolific offenses full of weapons and get the ball from Pro Bowl quarterbacks.

This particular metric may allow us to take into consideration a significant increase in production from these players from their college career to the pros.

Here's how the 2012 WR class stacks up

	Catches	Yards	Average	TD	TD%	C/G	Y/G
Justin Blackmon	244	3378	13.84	37	15.1	7.2	99.4
Michael Floyd	266	3645	13.7	36	13.5	6.3	86.8
Kendall Wright	295	3914	13.26	29	9.8	6	79.9
Alshon Jeffery	179	2894	16.16	22	12.3	4.6	74.2
Nick Toon	162	2343	14.46	17	10.5	3.9	55.8
Dwight Jones	146	2086	14.29	15	10.3	5.2	74.5
Mohamed Sanu	204	2201	10.79	12	5.9	5.5	59.5
Rueben Randle	94	1621	17.24	13	13.8	2.5	43.8
Brian Quick	131	2322	17.73	20	15.2	3.9	68.3
Jeff Fuller	226	2973	13.15	33	14.6	5	66.1
Jarius Wright	165	2846	17.29	23	13.9	3.4	59.3

Based on average yards per catch, only 4 of these 11 qualify as above average receivers based on the NFL comparison and only one of them (Jeffery) is considered an elite prospect, meaning the other 3 elite wide outs don't meet this criterion.

Our other statistic, touchdown percentage, makes some important distinctions with this group as well. Only 3 of these players would be ranked in the top 10 in the above list and Brian Quick's appearance on that list is likely, at least in part, due to the fact that he plays in a non-AQ conference against inferior talent.

On the other hand, remember that more than 40% of those top receivers were from non-AQ schools, making Quick the best candidate to join the group.

Jeff Fuller's stock has fallen over the course of the season, due in part to the up and down play of his quarterback Ryan Tannehill.

All of his his numbers are almost exactly the NFL group's average in terms of yards, catches per game and yards per game.

Furthermore, his touchdown percentage may indicate he's undervalued based on these projections.

These number also suggest Michael Floyd and Kendall Wright, particularly Wright, are overrated. Both fail to meet the average in yards of per catch and both fall short of our touchdown percentage benchmark, although Floyd is close.

Two of the sleepers of this class appear to be Rueben Randle and Jarius Wright, both of whom have well above average yard per catch numbers and both would just barely miss the touchdown list (Wright would actually be tied with A.J. Green).

Both play in the SEC against elite corners and while they get it done in different ways, Wright being more of a slot receiver at 5'10'' and Randle an outside guy at 6'3'', the fact is they do get it done.

For Blackmon, a likely top 5 pick, the numbers support his case as a blue-chip prospect. Worries about his yard per catch average can be explained by his obscenely high usage rate, catching 7.2 passes per game at OK State.

That's more than any player on our NFL list.

There is an interesting similarity to note here, so let's look at two players side by side. We'll call them Player A and Player B.

	Catches	Yards	Average	TD	TD%	C/G	Y/G
Player A	178	2927	16.44	28	16.4	4.7	77
Player B	179	2894	16.16	22	12.3	4.6	74.2

Player A is 6'5'' 236 and played in the ACC while player B is 6'4'' 232 and played in the SEC.

Player A is Calvin Johnson.
Player B is Alshon Jeffery.

Jeffery's stock has fallen somewhat, but when you lose Marcus Lattimore and have no continuity at quarterback, it shouldn't be surprising when your passing offense becomes less effective, especially when you play against SEC defenses.

Jeffery has seen two of the elite corners in this draft Dre Kirkpatrick and Janoris Jenkins.

He has size you can't coach and is a natural plucker of the football. He's not as fast as Johnson, but in terms of leaping ability and making catches in traffic, Jeffery and Johnson are peers.

Rankings this group by yards per catch:

1.) Brian Quick
2.) Jarius Wright
3.) Rueben Randle
4.) Alshon Jeffery
5.) Nick Toon
6.) Dwight Jones
7.) Justin Blackmon
8.) Michael Floyd
9.) Kendall Wright
10.) Jeff Fuller
11.) Mohamed Sanu

Rankings by touchdown percentage

1.) Brian Quick
2.) Justin Blackmon
3.) Jeff Fuller
4.) Jarius Wright
5.) Rueben Randle
6.) Michael Floyd
7.) Alshon Jeffery
8.) Nick Toon
9.) Dwight Jones
10.) Kendall Wright
11.) Mohamed Sanu

It may not, then, be surprising for the average draft placement for the elite NFL receivers to be the 59th pick in the draft. As the data shows, there are some extremely talented receivers in the middle and bottom of these rankings.

Were they better college players than those ranked ahead of them? Perhaps not, but they clearly have skills that would translate at the next level.

Since it's important to remember statistics are only relevant with context, let's take these statistics based on where these prospects were ranked heading into our analysis.

The rankings would look like this:

1.) Justin Blackmon
2.) Michael Floyd
3.) Alshon Jeffery
4.) Brian Quick
5.) Nick Toon
6.)Rueben Randle
7.) Kendall Wright
8.) Dwight Jones
9.) Jarius Wright
10.) Jeff Fuller
11.) Mohamed Sanu

The only real difference between this list and the list we started with was the flip-flopping (more or less) of Brian Quick with Kendall Wright, and the rise of Rueben Randle.

Mohamed Sanu also sees a dramatic fall, but most scouts see Sanu as somewhat of a raw, project-type player anyway.

Remember, it doesn't mean this is the list of players as it will look come draft time or in a few years when we rank the careers of these players.

There are simply too many variables. On the other hand, it is relevant to see what history shows us about the kinds of backgrounds needed to succeed in the NFL.

No one approach is the end-all-be-all, but at least the numbers help us put these players in context with there soon-to-be NFL peers.