I predicted yesterday that you'd see one of the crazier first rounds in recent memory. The rookie wage scale has made it a much lower risk to be aggressive and target players higher in the draft.
The point being, it won't cost as much as it used to.
We saw eight trades last night, right around average for the first round (a little over seven is the average), and half of the 32 picks were owned by more than one team at some time or another.
That rookie wage scale may have been why we saw some considerable reaching being done as well. The thought process being, this is the guy we want and we don't have to pay him exorbitant dollars, so let's pull the trigger and not worry about what round we're in.
Guys like Bruce Irvin and A.J. Jenkins didn't even make second round grades coming into the draft, so to see them go in the first, particularly with Jenkins, was shocking.
Some savvy moves from Minnesota (I know, I was as surprised as you were) and New England landed them some solid players with good value.
There are still three legitimate first round players available and as many as nine more fringe first round talents (8 of my top 32 are still available!), so there are plenty of quality players to be had tonight. A team like the Rams, with three picks in the top 13, could get quite a haul of talent, despite missing out on the top two wide receivers in the draft.
1.) Indianapolis Colts (2-14) Andrew Luck QB Stanford (Projected Pick: Andrew Luck)
Needs:OL,RB,LB,WR,CB,DT
Let's not quibble over his potential vs. RG3, this was the right pick and the Colts made it. He's a Pro Bowl player, but he will need some help around him.
2.) Washington Redskins (F/ Rams) Robert Griffin III QB Baylor (Projected Pick: Robert Griffin III)
Needs: QB,DL,OL,TE,DB
His draft day hat is about the only thing that doesn't fit about RG3 and Washington. This offense was made for a quarterback with quickness and a strong arm. The Redskins gave up a lot, but they got a franchise player in return.
3.) Cleveland Browns (F/ Vikings) Trent Richardson RB Alabama (Projected Pick: Justin Blackmon)
Needs: WR,OL,S,RB,QB,OLB
Somehow, the Vikings suckered the Browns into believing either the Jets or the Bucs were seriously considering moving into the #3 spot to take Richardson, so Cleveland made sure that didn't happen. Richardson immediately becomes on of the elite running backs in the league. I still think staying put and taking Blackmon made more sense.
4.) Minnesota Vikings (F/ Browns) Matt Khalil OT USC (Projected Pick: Matt Khalil)
Needs: OL,DB,WR,DT,LB
Well played Vikings. I tried to tell you yesterday Minnesota intended all along to take Khalil, although I think they would have been genuinely happy to take Claiborne if they had to. Khalil has Pro Bowl potential as a left tackle, but there are concerns about his strength and power anchoring. Vikes needed him badly.
5.) Jacksonville Jaguars (F/ Buccaneers) Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State (Projected Pick: Melvin Ingram DE/DT South Carolina)
Needs: WR,DE,OL,DB,RB
I predicted the Jags would trade down if Blackmon didn't fall, but when the Oklahoma State receiver got past the Vikings, Jacksonville didn't waste any time. Blackmon will be Blaine Gabbert's top target with his powerful body and excellent hands. Concerns about his speed are vastly overrated. As Mel Kiper Jr. noted last night, you never saw anyone catch him from behind.
6.) Dallas Cowboys (8-8) Morris Claiborne CB LSU (Projected Pick: Michael Brockers)
Needs: OL,DL,DB,WR,TE
Allegedly (I say that because who knows what to believe with Jerry Jones), Claiborne was the highest rated corner of their board since Deion Sanders. To me, that's ridiculous with guys like Charles Woodson and Champ Bailey having been drafted since then and Claiborne isn't even close to their talent. Dallas needed the help in the secondary though and got a corner with excellent ball skills. He's still overrated in my opinion.
7.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (F/ Jaguars) Mark Barron S Alabama (Projected Pick: Trent Richardson)
Needs: LB,DB,OL,TE,RB,WR
Tampa knew when it traded back that the chances they'd land Morris Claiborne were slim. Barron, to me, is the first real reach of this draft, although I think he's going to be a solid NFL player. Under the old CBA, I think there's no way Tampa takes a safety this high and a guy like Luke Kuechley would have been more likely.
8.) Miami Dolphins (6-10) Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M (Projected Pick: Ryan Tannehill)
Needs: OL,QB,WR,LB,TE,S
The best thing I can say about this pick is at least they didn't trade up. Tannehill has more upside than the quarterbacks after him in this draft, but he has a lower floor than the next few as well. It's the best case scenario for Tannehill however, with his former head coach and Aaron Rodger's former coach running this offense.
9.) Carolina Panthers (6-10) Luke Kuechley MLB Boston College (Projected Pick: Luke Kuechley)
Needs: CB,WR,S,LB, DL
Good for the Panthers for sticking to their board here and taking the best player who can help them next year. Kuechley is a unique linebacker talent with outstanding awareness to read and react, especially in coverage. A pass rusher had to have been tempting, but Kuechley isn't just a "safe" pick, he has Pro Bowl talent.
10.) Buffalo Bills (6-10) Stephon Gilmore CB South Carolina (Projected Pick: Stephon Gilmore)
Needs: OL,WR,LB,DB,TE
This was a pick I'd projected, but not necessarily what I would have done. I have Kirkpatrick rated higher than Gilmore, but a ton of NFL personnel had it this way. I can't argue the position though because the Bills have struggled to find corners to play against the pass happy teams in the AFC.
11.) Kansas City Chiefs (7-9) Dontari Poe DT Memphis (Projected Pick: Mark Barron)
Needs: WR,TE,OL,NT,LB
Immediately after the combine, I pegged this as a potential landing spot for Poe. The Chiefs desperately needed a nose tackle to eat up blocks and help what was a horrible run defense. Poe doesn't show on film what he flashed at the combine, but if anyone can get maximize his talent it's Romeo Crennel, an excellent former d-line coach.
12.) Philadelphia Eagles (F/ Seahawks) Fletcher Cox DT Mississippi State (Projected Pick: Fletcher Cox)
Needs:OL,LB,DT,S,RB,WR
Only the second pick so far in the draft with a net positive value, the Eagles get the best defensive tackle in the draft to anchor a defensive line with explosive ends but a flimsy middle. Cox has monster potential and makes this Eagles defense better right away with his power and quickness.
13.) Arizona Cardinals (8-8) Michael Floyd WR Notre Dame (Projected Pick: Riley Reiff OT Iowa)
Needs: OL,OLB,WR,DB,RB
There were greater needs and better values available with this pick, but Arizona got the player they wanted and in the process created a dynamic receiver tandem with Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald. As I tweeted last night, if Kevin Kolb can't complete passes to these guys, he should just retire.
14.) St. Louis Rams (F/ Cowboys) Michael Brockers DT LSU (Projected Pick: Morris Claiborne)
Needs: WR,DB,OL,OLB,DT
St. Louis twice missed out on taking the best receiver available by just one pick while also failing to get one of the top corners in the draft. Brockers has been a Rams target all along and apparently was a consideration at #6 if they'd stayed. In terms of physical tools, Brockers is an impact run-stopper right away in the NFL and has the potential to be a solid pass rusher with some work.
15.) Seattle Seahawks (F/ Eagles) Bruce Irvin DE/OLB West Virginia (Projected Pick: Quinton Coples)
Needs: OL,LB,CB,TE,WR
Seattle had their choice of any pass rusher in the draft, yet they chose a guy who was a fringe second round prospect. Irvin is one of the most unique athletes we've seen as a defensive end with 4.4 speed, but his size and strength limitations are concerning, especially for a 4-3 team. He's a situational rusher in the NFL and the Seahawks have to hope they catch lightening in a bottle the way the 49ers did last year with Aldon Smith's situation rush success.
16.) New York Jets (8-8) Quinton Coples DE North Carolina (Projected Pick: Michael Floyd)
Needs: OLB,OL,WR,DL,RB
Some are down on this pick for the Jets, but I'm one of the few who thinks this a great fit. Coples is perhaps the most physically gifted pass rusher in the draft, but doesn't always give consistent effort. On a defense with players like David Harris and Darrelle Revis, not to mention lead by Rex Ryan, I don't see how Coples gives any less than 100%. If he plays hard, there is scary talent in that big body, to the point there was speculation heading into the season Coples could be a top 5 pick.
17.) Bengals (F/ Oakland) Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama (Projected Pick: Dre Kirkpatrick)
Needs: DB,G,WR,RB,LB
Plenty of people were shocked when Cinci pulled the trigger on Kirkpatrick over such an outstanding guard like David DeCastro. You could argue that guard was a greater position of need, although, as I argued yesterday, Kirkpatrick plays an impact position. You need at least three corners to be successful in the NFL with these offenses and the Bengals get one of the more underrated talents in the draft.
18.) San Diego Chargers (8-8) Melvin Ingram OLB South Carolina (Projected Pick:David DeCastro)
Needs: DL,LB,OL,DB,WR
The Chargers might be the only team I can begrudge taking someone over DeCastro because pass rush has been such a problem for this team. Shaun Phillips is getting older and outside of Antwan Barnes, this team doesn't have much. Ingram is a versatile defender with a relentless motor and while I'm not as high on him as others, I think this is a perfect team at a perfect spot in the draft for him.
19.) Chicago Bears (8-8) Shea McClellin DE Boise State (Projected Pick: Whitney Mercilus)
Needs: OL,CB,DE,TE,LB
This one is a head-scratcher because Chicago's defensive line is in much better shape than the offensive line, not to mention McClellin is, at best, the fourth best available pass rusher. Kendall Wright would have made more sense as well. McClellin will be an under-sized 4-3 defensive end who relies on quickness and relentlessness to get to the quarterback. He's a poor man's Clay Matthews, making this a big-time reach.
20.) Tennessee Titans (9-7) Kendall Wright WR Baylor (Projected Pick: Dontari Poe)
Needs: WR,CB,DL,TE,OL
I can't question this pick here because I've projected it at various times throughout the draft process, but there may be a question of value here. That being said, Wright is a potentially explosive compliment to the bigger receivers Tennessee already has and can work out of the slot with success. Given Tennessee's apparent focus on interior blocking this year, I was somewhat surprised to see the Titans also pass on DeCastro.
21.) New England Patriots (F/ Bengals) Chandler Jones DE Syracuse (Projected Pick: Chandler Jones)
Needs:DE,DB,OL,RB,LB
Terrific pick for the Patriots who get a player to bring a pass rush back to this defense. Jones was hurt to start the year, otherwise he likely would have been a first round prospect heading into the draft process. His closing speed is what makes him so attractive because once he gets around the corner he's on top of the ball carrier in a hurry. Trading up is worth it for the Pats, who needed to make sure they get one of these first round rushers and had plenty of picks to use.
22.) Cleveland Browns (F/ Atlanta) Brandon Weeden QB Oklahoma State (Projected Pick Jonathan Martin)
Needs: WR,OL,S,RB,QB,OLB
This was one of the worst kept secrets of the draft. Everyone knew the Browns wanted to take Weeden, but Cleveland was worried he wouldn't last until the top of the second round (I'm not convinced they were wrong about that). I predicted they'd trade back into the first to nab Weeden late, but instead they sit at #22 to take the Oklahoma state quarterback. At 28, age is a concern, but Weeden is as NFL ready as any player in the draft and if he can be a legitimate starter for seven or eight seasons, that's all you can ask for late in the first.
23.) Detroit Lions (10-6) Riley Reiff OT Iowa (Projected Pick: Dont'a Hightower)
Needs: DB,LB,RB,WR,OL
Detroit finally gets to feel the euphoria of watching a highly-ranked player at a need position fall because the teams ahead of you are reaching. Usually it's the other way around and the Lions are the ones doing the reaching. In this case though, the Lions grab the second best tackle in the draft as he tumbled down the board, much like the Packers did with fellow Iowa tackle Bryan Bulaga. Reiff isn't quite as talented as Bulaga, but is just as polished and physical. Great pick for the Lions.
24.) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) David DeCastro G Stanford (Projected Pick: Courtney Upshaw)
Needs: OL,DL,LB,RB,DB
Perhaps no team in the league is better at letting the draft come to them than the Pittsburgh Steelers and this pick shows why. DeCastro has been compared to current Steelers guard Alan Faneca and may be the best guard prospect since Steve Hutchinson. To get a player at such a need position with this kind of value is a bit of luck, but Pittsburgh still had to make the pick. There may not be a better fit between player and team in the whole draft.
25.) New England Patriots (F/ Broncos) Dont'a Hightower LB Alabama (Projected Pick: Trade w/ Browns)
Needs:DE,DB,OL,RB,LB
An unusually aggressive Patriots draft nabs them a tough, physical linebacker for a team lacking the kind of hard-hitting mentality Hightower brings. Playing downhill and always looking to blow someone up, Hightower probably won't play middle linebacker because his coverage skills leave something to be desired. As as an outside 'backer and situational pass rusher, Hightower can be an impact player for the Patriots who are now loaded with former SEC linebackers.
26.) Houston Texans (10-6) Whitney Mercilus DE Illinois (Projected Pick: Kendall Wright)
Needs: S,WR,OL,DE,QB
The rich get richer as the Texans, much improved on defense a year ago, add a dynamic sackman from Illinois to help replace Mario Williams. The two are actually physically similar with long, lean bodies, although Williams is stronger and more powerful coming off the corner. Houston could use Mercilus as a 3-4 linebacker or end depending on the situation and with guys like J.J. Watt and Brooks Reed, he'll have time to develop after just one year as a starter in college.
27.) Cincinnati Bengals (F/ Patriots) Kevin Zeitler G Wisconsin (Projected Pick Cordy Glenn)
Needs: DB,G,WR,RB,LB
If the Bengals wanted a guard, I don't know why they didn't just take DeCastro at #21 instead of trading back to take Zeitler who is a solid player, but doesn't have the upside of DeCastro. That being said, the Bengals did acquire picks and were able to grab a smart, physical player who is the kind of mauler the Bengals love to have upfront. Solid pick, but it's hard to be too excited when you could have had one of the top 10 talents in this draft at the same position.
28.) Green Bay Packers (15-1) Nick Perry OLB USC (Projected Pick: Nick Perry)
Needs: OLB,DL,S,OL,CB
Cheeshead Nation may have been more excited about Courtney Upshaw, but when it comes to upside, Perry was a top 10 guy as a pass rusher. With explosive speed and power, Perry flashes the ability take move his 271 pound frame exceedingly well (He ran a 4.58 at the combine. That's unreal). Unfortunately, he'll disappear at times, whether it's conditioning or hustle or both. Even so, Green Bay has the coaches - Kevin Greene and Dom Capers - to maximize his vast talents. Great pick.
29.) Minnesota Vikings (F/ Ravens) Harrison Smith S Notre Dame (Projected Pick: None)
Needs: OL,DB,WR,DT,LB
This was a pick where the Vikings reached, but it's hard to blame them for it. Minnesota's defensive backfield is a shambles and Smith was the second best safety in the draft, even if he's rated as a second rounder. His range isn't great and his impact is more in the box, so he's not a great fit for the Cover 2 defense in Minnesota, but the secondary had to be improved somehow.
30.) San Francisco 49ers (13-3) A.J. Jenkins WR Illinois (Projected Pick:Amini Silatolu)
Needs: CB,OL,S,RB,DL,TE
If Bruce Irvin was a reach then this was a staggering, falling down grab. I guess if you're the 49ers you have Jenkins targeted as a big play slot receiver and you don't care about value. Jenkins had been a rising prospect, but I had him at #99 overall which means I didn't expect him to have his name called until Saturday. I think that tells you what I think of this pick.
31.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (F/ Broncos) Doug Martin RB Boise State (Projected Pick: Trade)
Needs: LB,DB,OL,TE,RB,WR
This pick changed hands twice before the Bucs snatched it up to take the versatile Boise running back. After trading back with Richardson off the board, it's not surprising that Greg Schiano would want a player with Martin's skill set for his offense. Martin can be a poor man's Ray Rice with his versatility and given that Rice played for Schiano at Rutgers, this pick makes a lot of sense.
32.) New York Giants (9-7) David Wilson RB Virginia Tech (Projected Pick: Levonte David)
Needs: OL,CB,LB,RB,WR
New York makes a somewhat surprising pick to end the round with the speedy running back from Virginia Tech. Wilson is actually very similar to Ahmad Bradshaw, down to the fumbling and durability concerns. New York did have a need at running back, but with a versatile offensive lineman like Cordy Glenn or a pass-catching tight end like Coby Fleener still on the board, this seems somewhat strange.
The top 10 players still available heading into tonight:
1.) Courtney Upshaw OLB Alabama (19)
2.) Cordy Glenn OT/G Georgia (21)
3.) Levonte David OLB Nebraska (25)
4.) Jonathan Martin OT Stanford (26)
5.) Devon Still DT Penn State (28)
6.) Coby Fleener TE Stanford (29)
7.) Peter Konz C Wisconsin (30)
8.) Stephen Hill WR Georgia Tech (32)
9.) Jerel Worthy DT Michigan State (33)
10.) Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama (35)
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