2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Cleveland Browns

Watching this team last year, it was hard to understand how they had four wins. I mean that in a good way...and in a bad way.

There were games where the Browns played extremely well and still lost (the Steelers game is a good example), and others where they didn't play so well and won.

Offensively, this was probably the worst team in football last year, finishing 30th in points 29th in yards and no higher than 24th in any major category.

Defensively, it was the exact opposite as the Browns finished 5th in points allowed, 10th in total yards and 2nd in passing yards.

Those are incredible stats when you consider Cleveland  finished third to last in the league against the run. Part of the problem there was they were losing so often late in games that teams were constantly running in the fourth quarter to protect leads.

On the other hand, it would be easy to argue that with some offensive upgrades, this defense is good enough to keep them in games and account for a few more wins.

That means starting with the quarterback. Can Colt McCoy play? It seems like McCoy isn't truly the problem in Cleveland, but rather that they have no pieces around him.

If he were in a situation like Cam Newton with guys like Steve Smith, Greg Olsen, Johnathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams around him and they couldn't score, then you could look at the young quarterback and just flatly dismiss his abilities.

Unfortunately, the Browns don't know whether or not McCoy is any good because they haven't put in a position to succeed with talent around him.

Cleveland may take a quarterback high in this draft, but McCoy will get one more chance to show some potential this year and the Browns are going to spend high draft choices on impact offensive players to give him a better shot.

Offense
Free agency took some familiar faces from this Cleveland roster, some for the better. Peyton Hillis had become public enemy #1 for Cleveland fans after throwing a tantrum most of the season about his contract, appearing to fake injuries, and playing terribly once he was actually on the field.

The loss of Artis Hicks, Steve Vallos and Eric Steinbach, on the other hand, hurt considerably more. When you have a young quarterback and below average receivers, you better at least have a quality line to give your quarterback time to throw. Without some help in the draft and/or free agency, this looks like a leaky group.

Obviously, the biggest need on this team is at the skill positions. There's no running back, tight end or receiver on this team who opponents must account for. It's unarguably the worst group in the league and for Colt McCoy to have any chance to win games, they must improve there.

Luckily, the Browns have two first round picks to address those positions in a draft with quality depth at wide receiver and running back.

Cleveland is apparently very high on Brandon Weeden despite his age and would consider him in the second round. That seems like a strange choice given that Cleveland lacks so many pieces, it wouldn't have a decent team until Weeden was at least 30.

Key Free Agents: Oniel Cousins OT (re-signed w/ Browns), Artis Hicks OT (signed w/ Dolphins), Peyton Hillis RB (signed w/ Chiefs), Jordan Norwood WR (re-signed w/ Browns), Alex Smith TE (re-signed w/ Browns), Eric Steinbach G, Steve Vallos OT (signed w/ Eagles), 

Defense
Cleveland's defense was surprisingly effective last year, despite lacking big-name players. Joe Haden has developed into one of the best corners in the game and D'Qwell Jackson is perhaps the most underrated defensive player in the league.

Juqua Parker and Frostee Rucker were signed to bolster this defensive line, although rookie Jabaal Sheard was extremely productive, notching 8.5 sacks and forcing 5 fumbles. This teams does need help from the defensive line to get stops in the run game, so getting Parker and Rucker should improve the overall strength of the group.

There are some deficiencies at linebacker outside of Jackson and while this isn't a particularly deep draft at outside linebacker, I wouldn't be surprised to see a middle round pick used to get some depth there.

The Browns can certainly rely on this defense to consistently keep them in games because the Browns faced some of the best offenses in the league last year and stood up to all of them. There is some good, young talent on the defense. If only the offense could say the same.

Key Free Agents: Mike Adams S (signed w/ Broncos), Jayme Mitchell DE, Dimitri Patterson CB (re-signed w/ Browns), Brian Schaefering NT (re-signed w/ Browns), DeAngelo Smith DB (signed w/ Jets), 

Draft Targets

Needs: WR,OL,S,RB,QB,OLB
Round 1 (Pick 4): Trent Richardson RB Alabama (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 3)

If the Vikings pick Khalil - the conventional wisdom for most of the offseason - then the Browns will have to pick between the best running back and the best receiver in the draft. If Minnesota, for some reason, passes, as has been reported they might, then suddenly the Browns could be looking at one of the best young sets of offensive tackles we've seen in a long time. Even so, if you look at value, Richardson is now widely considered the third best player in the draft and plays a position of need for the Browns. He's the best running back prospect in the last 10 years not named Adrian Peterson and is a perfect fit in a city like Cleveland as a tough, physical, bulldozing runner. I'm wary of being too sold on Richardson to the Browns here given Mike Holmgren's history with the West Coast offense and the way he de-values running backs. I won't be surprised if Justin Blackmon ends up being the pick here. 

Rount 1 (Pick 22 F/ Falcons) Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 18)
While I don't think this will happen, I think it should. There's no way Tannehill belongs in the top 25, much less the top 5 like has been discussed. On potential, you can justify him here at #22 but much higher, I don't see it. It sounds like the Browns have cooled on the idea of Tannehill at 4, which makes the most likely landing spot now #8 to the Dolphins with the owner making a late push for the A&M signall-caller. Tannehill has great athletic talent, but isn't an accurate thrower, nor does he have outstanding arm strength. As a leader, I think he's terrific, but look at the big games he's played in college and you'll see he was a big reason why his team lost those games more frequently than they won them. That's not a trait I want in my franchise quarterback.

Round 2 (Pick 36): Kevin Zeitler G Wisconsin (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 39)
Cleveland already has an all-pro former Badger offensive lineman and regardless of which skill position player you take at #4, the offensive line has to get better. Zeitler is one of the safest picks in the draft, a sure-fire 10 year pro who will always execute. His ceiling isn't as high as some of the other lineman in this draft, but Mike Holmgren likes guys with a history of success and no one has been more successful at his craft than Zeitler. If they go Khalil or Blackmon at the top of the first, a running back like David Wilson or a pass rusher like Andre Branch could be a fit here as well, but if they are going to try and make the Colt McCoy experiment a success, they have to improve the pieces around him, and offensive line is a huge problem right now.

Round 3 (Pick 68): Joe Adams WR Arkansas (Pos. Rank: 9, Overall Rank: 70)

There is some potential in the Cleveland receiving group, but no one special or elite. Adams would continue that trend, but at least has the kind of specialized skill set as a slot receiver to be effective. Greg Little showed some flashes last year and getting a receiver in the slot to work against nickel corners could open up the field for the other players on this team. He's also the kind of player who can get deep off play action with a guy like Richardson in the backfield. Noticeably absent from any of these picks is a quarterback. I do think the Browns take one by this pick, but I'm not convinced there will be good value in it, that's why I don't have it here. My final mock likely will have them taking Brandon Weeden in the second round, but if Brock Osweiler or Kirk Cousins falls to them here, he could be a consideration as well. 

Overall

Richardson or Blackmon will almost certainly be the pick at #4 and immediately brings an impact player to an offense without one. I like either pick, although I think Richardson does seem somewhat more likely. I'd be on board if Tannehill did fall to the Browns at 22 (he won't), but there will likely be a quality receiver like Kendall Wright, which makes Richardson all the more valuable at #4. Zeitler would be a Day 1 starter for the Browns even if the value isn't exactly where you'd like it. That being said, he's a first round player on plenty of team's boards and I don't think it qualifies as a reach there. I expect to see plenty of skill position players in this class for the Browns, so don't be surprised to see multiple receivers taken, which makes Adams a solid pick in the third round.

Final Thought
If your looking for a team who could wind up in the Matt Barkley sweepstakes (we'll have to come up with a phrase like "Suck for Luck,"), the Browns are a good bet. Cincinnati will be better, Baltimore and Pittsburgh are Super Bowl contenders and the Browns just aren't very good. Even getting a guy like Richardson and solidifying some of the skill positions won't be enough to compete for the division title. That's even more reason not to get reach for a guy like Brandon Weeden because next year you could have  Barkley or Landry Jones, both of whom would be rated above Weeden and both much younger. Cleveland must understand what they are doing and that they need to build through young talent. Maximize these early picks along with the likely ones next year and the Browns may finally have the foundation to bring a playoff team back to Cleveland.