Now, in a draft with three, possibly four elite players (to me, Morris Claiborne isn't worth a top 5 pick), the Vikings won't get the top two and don't need the third.
That makes Matt Khalil a no-brainer pick to me, but more on that later.
Given where Minnesota is, there's a chance they could be it the mix for Matt Barkley next year, particularly given how deep the NFC North will be this year and with Adrian Peterson coming back off of serious injury.
If the Vikings get to four wins next year, I think it would be considered a success.
Ponder did show some flashes, but the best quarterback on the roster last season for the Vikings was Joe Webb. That's not good when you're talking about a guy you spent a top 15 pick on in a year when Cam Newton and Andy Dalton had outstanding rookie seasons at the position.
The former Florida State quarterback certainly didn't have the weapons or protection those quarterbacks did, but it's legitimate to wonder how high Ponder's ceiling is when you look at the talent level in both this year and next year's draft at that position.
Unfortunately for the Vikings, Ponder did get any help from his defense either. Minnesota was second to last in points allowed and 26th against the pass. The latter number likely would have been worse if it weren't for so many teams running in the second half to hold leads.
When you look at the edges of both sides of the ball, the Vikings just don't have the talent to compete in the NFL. Getting better at wide receiver and at defensive back will have to be the top priorities if the Vikings want to have any chance to catch up the their NFC North rivals.
Offense
It's safe to assume Ponder will be the starter heading into the season, but whether or not he finishes the season remains a serious and potentially precarious question about the long-term future of the quarterback position.
Minnesota also lost former All-Pro guard Steve Hutchinson in free agency, while the other starting guard, Anthony Herrera, has yet to be re-signed. Geoff Schwartz was signed from the Panthers, but this offensive line group remains well below average.
John Carlson was signed from Seattle, presumably to pair with last year's second round pick Kyle Rudolph who showed promise as a rookie. Visanthe Shiancoe has yet to sign and could be on his way out of Minnesota.
Receiver is the biggest area of weakness right now for the Vikings. Percy Harvin is a dynamic, versatile player, but he's not a #1 type receiver. Getting one in a draft with a deep receiving class is a must and at the top of the second round, the Vikings could get a first round talent.
As this is being written, the Vikings signed Jerome Simpson from the Bengals. Simpson, however, is not a #1 receiver either,although he does provide some explosive athleticism.
Don't be surprised if a running back in the mid to late rounds is also in the plan with the lingering concerns over AP's health.
Key Free Agents: Devon Aromashodu WR (re-signed w/ Vikings), Greg Camarillo WR, Anthony Herrera G, Steve Hutchinson G (signed w/ Titans), Jim Kleinsasser TE/FB, Scott Kooistra OT, Donovan McNabb QB, Sage Rosenfels QB (re-signed w/ Vikings), Visanthe Shiancoe TE,
Defense
It's hard to understand how a team with such an outstanding defensive line can be so horrible defending the pass, but the Vikings join their NFC North brethren Lions with the same issue.
Chris Carr and Zach Bowman were signed to improve the secondary, just as guys like Cedric Griffin and Benny Sapp were shown the door. Getting Chris Cook back after his legal battle should help as well, but both corner and safety remain a major concern for the Vikes.
Linebacker is another weak spot for this team. Erin Henderson was re-signed, but his brother E.J. has yet to get a deal with Minnesota or any other team. Chad Greenway is a solid player, but isn't an elite difference-maker at the position, despite the way the Vikings have paid him. Even with Greenway and Henderson, Minnesota has no middle linebacker.
Regardless of the passing league the NFL has become, without a leader in the middle, this defense has little chance of getting substantially better.
If the Vikings aren't sold on Matt Khalil, trading down and nabbing a player like Luke Kuechley would be an outstanding option, but there is apparently insufficient interest in players like Khalil and Richardson to entice a team to give the Vikings anything work taking for the #3 pick.
Key Free Agents: Hussain Abdullah FS, Xavier Adibi LB, Remi Ayodele DT, Fred Evans DT (re-signed w/ Vikings), Cedric Griffin CB (signed w/ Redskins), Letroy Guion DT (re-signed w/ Vikings), Erin Henderson OLB (re-signed w/ Vikings), E.J. Henderson MLB, Tyrell Johnson FS (signed w/ Dolphins, Kenny Onatolu OLB (signed w/ Panthers), Jarrard Page SS, Benny Sapp CB,
Draft Targets
Needs: OL,DB,WR,DT,LB
Round 1 (Pick 3): Matt Khalil OT USC (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 4)
Round 1 (Pick 3): Matt Khalil OT USC (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 4)
As I said earlier, this is an obvious decision here and any indication in the media otherwise seems like a pretty conspicuous smokescreen. Khalil is the last truly elite prospect in the draft and top-level NFL left tackles are cornerstone commodities. Much like a quarterback, if you don't have one, you can't pass on one. Khalil is athletic, agile and explosive, so much so he was used by USC on the kick-block team (he was really good at it too). Khalil was thought to be so good, Cowboy tackle and former Trojan Tyron Smith played right tackle for USC. Smith played at a Pro Bowl level as a rookie last year. That's the kind of ceiling Khalil has. Regardless of who is playing quarterback in Minnesota, they need a left tackle because they don't have one.
Round 2 (Pick 35): Alshon Jeffery WR South Carolina (Pos. Rank: 5, Overall Rank: 37)
Formerly a first round lock, Jeffery's weight issues and attitude concerns have his stock tumbling. With an impressive pro day, Jeffery was gotten back on track to some degree, but I still don't think most teams see him as a first round player. He certainly isn't ahead of Blackmon, Floyd and Kendall Wright, although he may seems to be back on the cusp of first round consideration. Jeffery is a lanky, strong receiver who can win jump balls, but isn't great in an out of breaks, nor does he have top-end speed. With a big-bodied receiver like Jeffery, the field could really open up for Harvin in the slot to do what he does best.
Round 3 (Pick 66): Jamell Flemming CB Oklahoma (Pos. Rank: 9, Overall Rank: 67)
Flemming is one of the most underrated players in the draft. He is tailor-made for the NFL and is one of the best man coverage corners in the draft. He was physical and even dominant at times in the Senior Bowl, despite being asked to play more off coverage. His instincts are excellent, although his ball skills are not - he reacts well to the ball, but is more likely to break it up than pick it off. He is thickly-built and could be a great fit if the Vikings continue to play Cover 2. He's somewhat similar to former Viking Cedric Griffin coming out of college and does have some injury concerns. Still, I think Flemming could be a solid player for the Vikings.
Overall
Final Thought
With three picks in the top 70, the Vikings have a chance to undo some of the damage they did last year by wasting high picks on players who didn't have value. Even so, Minnesota is a long way from competing for a wild card spot, much less a division title. It's tough to know whether or not Christian Ponder can actually play, but if the Vikings can put some better pieces around him, they'll be in a better position to assess his development. If Ponder is still deemed to be inadequate, the Vikings will have a better foundation plus a chance to get a player like Matt Barkley or Landry Jones in next year's draft. Fans in Minnesota are used to talk of "next year," but with the uncertainty surrounding the team getting a new stadium, there has to be concern that "next year" may be in California. Things aren't looking good in Viking country right now.
With three picks in the top 70, the Vikings have a chance to undo some of the damage they did last year by wasting high picks on players who didn't have value. Even so, Minnesota is a long way from competing for a wild card spot, much less a division title. It's tough to know whether or not Christian Ponder can actually play, but if the Vikings can put some better pieces around him, they'll be in a better position to assess his development. If Ponder is still deemed to be inadequate, the Vikings will have a better foundation plus a chance to get a player like Matt Barkley or Landry Jones in next year's draft. Fans in Minnesota are used to talk of "next year," but with the uncertainty surrounding the team getting a new stadium, there has to be concern that "next year" may be in California. Things aren't looking good in Viking country right now.
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