Friday, April 13, 2012

2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Dallas Cowboys

You don't have to like Jerry Jones (I don't), to like the way the Dallas offseason has been handled to this point.


Underachieving names like Keith Brooking and Terrance Newman are out, as are four other key contributors on a pass defense that finished 23rd in the league last season.  

The Cowboys signed Brandon Carr and Brodney Pool to improve a woeful secondary and Dan Connor was brought in fill the void left by Brooking and Brady James.

Dallas also signed a proven veteran in Kyle Orton to back up Tony Romo,  but added two guards to a poor offensive line.

I think the talent on this team the last few years has been vastly overstated. When you look at the way Wade Phillips was able to turn Houston around, you understand that this team wasn't lacking direction or scheme, but rather lacked both talent and effort.

No matter the talent influx, this team isn't going to get better until they start playing harder and with better focus.

On the other hand, there are some definite holes that need to be addressed, including on the offensive and defensive lines.

It'd honestly be hard to argue with any pick the Cowboys make in the first few rounds because they could use help at basically every position.
 
Offense
Tony Romo finally put together a complete season and showed why Dallas has had so much faith in him. Dallas' offense has playmakers like few other teams and until DeMarco Murray got hurt, the Cowboys were one of the most balanced offenses in football. 

Lawrence Vickers signed from Houston, as well as new guards Nate Livings and Mackenzy Bernadeau should help get that run game going again assuming Murray can get healthy.

Murray was having an astoundingly successful rookie reason despite falling in the draft (For what it's worth, I had him much higher than he was drafted).

With Dez Bryant and Miles Austin and Jason Witten, few teams can match the fire power of this team.

Getting better along the offensive line, particularly at tackle opposite Tyron Smith will help keep Tony Romo upright and firing to his group of weapons.

Even with the aforementioned players, Dallas did lose Martellus Bennett and Laurent Robinson in free agency and adding some depth at the skill positions will make this offense even more dangerous.

Key Free Agents: Martellus Bennett TE (signed w/ Giants), Derek Dockery G, Tony Fiammetta FB (signed w/ Patriots), Montrae Holland G, Jon Kitna, Kyle Kosier G, Sammy Morris RB, Laurent Robinson WR (signed w/ Jaguars),

Defense
If Dallas wants to compete in the NFC East, this is the side of the ball where they must improve. Pool and Carr should give the Cowboys more time to get after the quarterback.


At worst, Connor is an adequate fill-in for Brooking/James and at best, he could be a solid compliment to Sean Lee who really came on last season.

With that being said, this defense still needs to get better at every level, especially along the defensive front and at corner.

Mike Jenkings, for all of the talent he has, gives inconsistent effort, loses focus and doesn't seem to have the drive to be the kind of elite player he could be.

Also, outside of Demarcus Ware, Dallas doesn't have another passrusher that you have to fear. Somehow, Ware is still able to get pressure despite double teams.

Adding a defensive lineman or two in the draft could help lighten the load on Ware, as well as take pressure off of this weak secondary.

Key Free Agents: Alan Ball CB, Keith Brooking ILB, Abram Elam SS, Bradie James ILB, Terrance Newman CB (signed w/ Bengals), Frank Walker CB

Draft Targets
Needs: OL,DL,DB,WR,TE


Round 1 (Pick 15): Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 16)
This pick could come down to whether or not Dallas is comfortable with the inside linebackers they have. If Luke Kuechley falls to Dallas, he might be extremely hard to pass up. On the other hand, Kirkpatrick is a corner who has top 10 talent. He is a physical, instinctive corner who, unlike the other corners on this team, isn't afraid to come up and play in run support. Playing on that dominating Alabama defense, Kirkpatrick  is cerebral and can play in zone or man schemes because of his affinity for being physical at the line of scrimmage. Kirkpatrick reminds me a little of Darrelle Revis in the way he can body receivers and still transition in and out of breaks to make a play on the ball. I'm not saying he's on that level, but he has some of those same skills and could be a Pro Bowl corner.


Round 2 (Pick 45): Harrison Smith S Notre Dame (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 49)
Admittedly, this isn't an ideal fit for the Cowboys who need the help in coverage more than in run support. On the other hand, Smith is shooting up draft boards and as a smart, physical defender who possesses the toughness this defense lacks. He could be a leader of the secondary and even though he's not going to blow you away as an athlete, he fills hard in support and can be used in the box like an extra linebacker. A passrusher like Bruce Irvin or a running back like Lamar Miller could also make some sense here, but Smith has the potential to be a solid contributor in sub packages as a rookie and on special teams. Eventually, he could be a starter, although I do think he's an overrated prospect overall.

Round 3 (Pick 81): Mike Martin DT Michigan (Pos. Rank: 9, Overall Rank: 76)
I'm skeptical Martin will fall this far (this is actually the third time I've put him in this mock and he goes higher every time). Dallas can use Martin all over the defensive line, either as an undersized nose tackle or as a five technique in their 3-4 defense. Rob Ryan will love Martin, who anchors well and uses his hands well despite not having long arms. Martin is a big-time sleeper in this draft and it's looking more and more that he may not even make it this far. The more scouts watch him, the more they are impressed and after working out well at the combine, this does seem low for the former Michigan Wolverine. Dallas would love to get a defensive lineman who can anchor as well as be disruptive the way Martin can.

Overall

Dallas may hope an offensive lineman falls to them in one of the first few rounds after striking golf with Tyron Smith last season. In this scenario, they don't get one, but do address their two biggest holes other than the offensive front. Kirkpatrick doesn't just have starter potential, he has all-pro potential. Martin also could  be an above average starter and difference maker for this defense. Smith is the wild card. If he can mature as a player and get better with his instincts, he could be another solid player for the Cowboys. On the other hand, he has significant bust potential as well given his inconsistent tackling and coverage skills. The value (0) is average, but because of the ceilings for this group, it has to be considered a successful draft.


Final Thought
Are we going to get last year's Tony Romo? Can he stay healthy? Will this defense get better? There are plenty of questions that need to be answered before Dallas can be considered a threat in the NFC East, particularly with the Eagles and defending Super Bowl champions in their division. The offense will score plenty of points, but there is a mental toughness that seems to be lacking when it comes to focus and dealing with adversity. Even so, they went 8-8 last season and should have won several games that they simply gave away. The Cowboys should be in the thick of the NFC East race, but health and the draft will be a key to determining whether or not they can hang with the giants, both literal and metaphoric of in NFC.

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