Sunday, April 22, 2012

2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If your team goes from 10-6 to 4-12 and you basically admit your team just isn't that good, you can bet a pink slip is in your future. 

Raheem Morris never seemed to understand what being a head coach was about, particularly in the way he handled the media and the messages he sent to his team.

Former Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano will take over and will bring a much more polished background to Tampa Bay. It's hard to know just what kind of differences we'll see on the field, but after an extremely aggressive free agency period, it's safe to say the differences will be noticeable.

Vincent Jackson and Carl Nicks, two of the best in the league at their respective positions, were signed this offseason as the Bucs build around promising quarterback Josh Freeman.

Freeman regressed as a sophomore in the NFL and part of the reason, one would think, was that he had so little to work with around him.

With a slew of high draft choices, the Bucs could turn that 4-12 back into 10-6, particularly with the Saints in the midst of so much turmoil.

Just like with any first-year head coach, this draft will be critical in building a foundation of young talent around Freeman and getting this franchise back to the national spotlight. Back to winning.

Offense
This year, we'll find out if Freeman can be the franchise player the Bucs believed he was when they drafted him. With Nicks solidifying the interior of that line (although the group remains average at best), and Jackson providing Freeman a legitimate #1 receiver, there will be no excuses.

Tampa finished 27th in the league in points scored in 2011 and if you can't score, you can't win. Oddly, Tampa finished in the middle of the pack, 16th, in passing. It was turnovers and miscues in the red zone that prevented the Bucs from finishing drives with points.


Dan Orlovsky and Jamon Meredith were also signed to bring some depth, but if they have to play, particularly Orlovsky, the Bucs will be in trouble.

Getting a runner to pair with LeGarrette Blount in the backfield would take pressure off Freeman. Tampa finished 30th in the league in rushing and will lose two running backs in free agency. It will be hard to pass up if Alabama's terrific running back Trent Richardson is available when the Bucs pick at the top of the first round. A Blount/Richardson backfield would leave a lot of battered and bruised defenses.

This offensive line still has holes and Tampa could target a lineman high in this draft as well as after the June cuts. 

Key Free Agents: LeGarrette Blount RB (re-signed w/ Buccaneers), Rudy Carpenter QB,Demar Dotson OT (re-signed w/ Buccaneers), Jeff Faine C, Earnest Graham RB, Josh Johnson QB (signed w/ 49ers), James Lee OT (signed w/ Redskins), Kregg Lumpkin RB (signed w/ Seahawks), Preston Parker WR (re-signed w/ Buccaneers), Michael Spurlock WR (signed w/ Chargers),

Defense

Once known for their defensive dominance, Tampa's defense was last in the league in points allowed and against the rush, and 30th against the pass.

Eric Wright, the best cornerback available in free agency, was signed from Detroit to stop the potent offenses in the NFC South.

Defensive back is still a problem though, with the departures of Tanard Jackson, Sean Jones and Corey Lynch in free agency. Those losses, coupled with Aquib Talib's ongoing off the field issues have Tampa searching for ways to improve their defensive backfield.

Tampa has spent a number of high picks over the last few years on defensive lineman, none of whom have lived up to their vast potential. There is certainly some talent there, but Tampa doesn't generate much pressure, making it even harder for the defensive backfield. 

The biggest need on this defense is at linebacker. If the NFL had a D-league, that's where Tampa's group of linebackers belong. There isn't even an average starter in the group and when you have three players on the field, none of whom can make an impact, you are fighting a losing battle.

This isn't a great draft for linebackers, but getting at least one, maybe more, for the Bucs seems like a good bet.

Key Free Agents: Ronde Barber CB (re-signed w/ Buccaneers), Michael Bennett DE (re-signed w/ Buccaneers, Tim Crowder DE, Jovan Haye DE, Geno Hayes OLB, Tanard Jackson S (signed w/ Redskins), Sean Jones SS, Corey Lynch FS, Elbert Mack DB, Nick Reed DE

Draft Targets
Needs: LB,DB,OL,TE,RB,WR
Round 1 (Pick 5): Morris Claiborne CB LSU (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 5)
Tampa is in an unfortunate position here because the two most likely players available don't play a position of the desperate need. Morris Claiborne and Trent Richardson could both be available at #5 and if they are, Tampa will have a difficult decision to make. Clairborne is the best cover corner in the draft in a league where you have to have three or four legitimate starting-caliber corners. On the other hand, Richardson is the best running back prospect since Adrian Peterson and franchise running backs are few and far between in this league. In a division with Cam Newton, Drew Brees and Matt Ryan, Claiborne is the greater need pick. I'm not as high on Claiborne as some (he's not Champ Baily or Darrelle Revis, so #5 seems too high), but he's extremely fluid in coverage and has outstanding closing speed.

Round 2 (Pick 37): Andre Branch DE Clemson (Pos. Rank: 6, Overall Rank: 34)
One of the reasons Clairborne makes more sense in Round 1 is because at this pick, the Bucs could probably get David Wilson or Lamar Miller to pair with Blount. Getting Claiborne and Wilson would me a much better pair than getting Richardson and Brandon Boykin for example. If Tampa doesn't go with a running back, I like a versatile defender like Andre Branch. He played end in college at Clemson, but has been seen by teams as a 3-4 outside linebacker because of his size at just 260 pounds. He's not an ideal fit at end, but could be used as a rush linebacker similar to the way Denver uses Von Miller. Branch is an elite pass rusher and would be a huge asset for this Bucs defense. 

Round 3 (Pick 68): Kelechi Osemele OL Iowa State (Pos. Rank: 5, Overall Rank: 68)
Another versatile lineman for Tampa. Osemeli is seen as a tackle by some and a guard by others, mostly because the former Iowa State Cyclone is a mountain of a man at 6-5 347. Scouts question whether he has the lateral quickness to play tackle in the NFL. He does have enough quickness to stay with nimble inside rushers, but wouldn't be the kind of guard you'd ask to pull due to his heavy feet. Could be an NFL right tackle in a pinch,  but is a better fit at guard. Either way, the Bucs need the kind of physical presence Osemele would bring and he'd be a major upgrade in the run game.

Overall

I think it would be hard for Buccaneers fans to get too excited about this draft , despite getting three players in the top 70. Richardson, who I think would be the pick if Greg Schiano got to make the pick alone, would be the more popular choice, but Claiborne makes more sense. Talib may not be long for this world on the Bucs and Ronde Barber is probably a year or two at most from retiring. Branch and Osemele are need picks and give the Bucs great overall value (3+) for this draft. There will be plenty of quality players available to Tampa. Being judicious about where they take risks will be key to determining how successful this draft will be.

Final Thought
If you think the Bucs can't go 10-6 again this year, remind yourself they did just two years ago with a first-year starter at quarterback. I expect Freeman to bounce back from his lackluster season last year and really flourish the Vincent Jackson in the offense. This team is better offensively and defensively from the team last year. Unfortunately, so will the Panthers and the Falcons, not to mention the Saints will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. The schedule is slightly more favorable this year with the NFC East and AFC West on the schedule, but eight wins seems reasonable and nine or 10 isn't out of the question. The biggest reason for Tampa's slide last year was they lacked toughness. That's Greg Schiano's specialty and I expect him to have a positive impact on the mindset of this team.

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