Fifteen years ago, the best pass rusher in the NFL was Reggie White. White stood 6'6'' and was 300 pounds. He was as powerful as he was agile for a man his size.
However, White, despite being one of the greatest defensive players ever, couldn't have played outside in a 3-4 scheme. He wasn't the edge rusher Lawrence Taylor was, but frankly, no one was.
It was Taylor who started the trend of smaller, faster players on the corners. These edge rushers have slimmed down in part because the running game has been de-emphasized by NFL offenses.
To prove my point, one need only look at the top 14 pass rushers last year - a number chosen based on sack totals from the 2011 season.
1.) Jared Allen 6-3 270
2.) DeMarcus Ware 6-4 260
3.) Jason Babin 6-3 267
4.) Jason Pierre-Paul 6-5 278
5.) Aldon Smith 6-4 258
6.) Terrell Suggs 6-3 260
7.) Chris Long 6-3 270
8.) Tamba Hali 6-3 275
9.) Connor Barwin 6-4 264
10.) Von Miller 6-3 245
11.) Cliff Avril 6-3 260
12.) Antwan Barnes 6-1 251
13.) Trent Cole 6-3 270
14.) Julius Peppers 6-7 270
Half of these players play the hybrid 3-4 linebacker spot and a player like Avril or Cole could easily slide outside (Cole already might as well be an outside linebacker in the Eagles 'Wide 9' scheme).
There are a couple important things to notice on this list: just one of these players is shorter than 6-3 and that's Antwan Barnes.
Taller players with wider frames and longer arms can generate more power with their upper body and use their hands more to fight off blocks. Furthermore, with so many NFL offensive tackles 6'5'' or taller, being disruptive in throwing lanes and batting balls at the line becomes more difficult for a shorter player.
Antwan Barnes makes up for his size with outstanding speed. Coming out of Florida International, Barnes ran a 4.43 at the combine.
It's also worth noting that this group averages a little over 265 pounds, but weight it at an average of 256 pounds at the NFL Combine.
Compare that to this year's class and the 2012 group of pass-rushers is actually heavier at the combine (266 average) than this group is at the NFL level.
1.) Quinton Coples 6-6 284
2.) Melvin Ingram 6-1 264
3.) Nick Perry 6-3 271
4.) Whitney Mercilus 6-4 262
5.) Andre Branch 6-4 259
6.) Jared Crick 6-4 279
7.) Vinny Curry 6-3 266
8.)Chandler Jones 6-5 266
9.) Cameron Johnson 6-3 268
10.) Courtney Upshaw** 6-2 272
11.) Ronnell Lewis** 6-2 253
12.) Bruce Irvin** 6-3 245
**Listed at Outside Linebacker, but are considered by scouts to be more likely 3-4 rush linebackers.
Strictly from a size perspective, there may be some cause for concern for Melvin Ingram and Courtney Upshaw. Both are shorter and heavier than the elite rushers in the NFL and neither have the kind of elite speed Barnes has. More on this in a moment.
Without some perspective, it may be hard to know just how that might affect some of the prospects in the draft.
The average 40 yard dash time for the pro group was 4.67.
Ingram ran a 4.78 at the combine, so he doesn't have the explosiveness off the edge to make up for his lack of height. He's a shorter, stouter player than someone like Antwan Barnes, and athletically isn't as impressive as some of the other players on this list.
On the other hand, only Nick Perry (4.64) from USC and Bruce Irvin (4.50) from West Virginia ran a time better than the NFL group's average. Whitney Mercilus (4.68) and Ronnell Lewis (4.68) were just above that average.
The average 40 time for this group was 4.76, significantly higher than the NFL group. Even accounting for the 10 pounds more the college group is carrying, you see the difference between elite level NFL talent.
Obviously, talent evaluators use more than just a player's athleticism to determine value. If it were just about athletic value, we'd go to the combine and just pick the most athletic guys.
But there's more to playing outside linebacker or defensive end in the NFL than just athleticism, and the production in the college game is important.
Again, we see the lack of top shelf NFL talent. The NFL elite group averages 38 more total tackles 11 TFL's and 5.5 more sacks than the 2012 pass rusher class.
All of those numbers are statistically significant enough for us to say that production is important. In fact, two of the top three collegiate sack totals on the NFL list were 1 and 3 respectively in the league in sacks last year as well.
Only two players (Coples and Curry) in this year's class had better than the NFL average in career sack production, while three others were just below (Ingram, Perry and Irvin).
I've said many times, let the numbers confirm something you already believe, and that goes for both the Combine numbers and the statistics.
On the other hand, it's clear there are trends in both production and athleticism in the NFL. If you take college production and add in the Combine, without thinking about what the tape says, you're top 5 in some order would be as follows:
1.) Quinton Coples
2.) Nick Perry
3.) Whitney Mercilus
4.) Bruce Irvin
5.) Courtney Upshaw
Upshaw is on the list based on the production alone since we haven't seen him run, but from all accounts he will run a time that puts him on this list.
Switch Bruce Irvin and Melvin Ingram on this list and you have the five top-rated pass rushers in the draft, which speaks to the both the evaluation process and these players.
These are clearly the best players in the draft and how they succeed in the NFL will be up to their work ethic, the scheme they play in and their health.
Stastically, two of the guys on these list are similar to players on the NFL list and it's useful to see them side by side.
| Height | Weight | Tackles | TFL | Sacks | FF | 40 yard | |
| Player A | 6'3'' | 263 | 79 | 23 | 14.5 | 1 | 4.74 |
| Player B | 6'4'' | 262 | 81 | 29 | 18 | 11 | 4.68 |
Player A is Aldon Smith, rookie phenom for the San Francisco 49ers and Player B is Whitney Mercilus, college football's leading sack man in 2011.
Neither played more than a full season as a starter, but both were dominant when they did play. What makes Mercilus even more appealing is that Mercilus was healthy his whole career while Smith wasn't.
Also, Mercilus is a taller and a better athlete than Smith who was supposedly raw as a pass rusher coming out of Missouri, then proceeded to tear up the NFL as a third down specialist.
When I see Mercilus on tape, it reminds me of Smith and I think he could have that same type of early impact.
| Height | Weight | Tackles | TFL | Sacks | FF | 40 yard | |
| Player A | 6'3'' | 260 | 157 | 36 | 13 | 5 | 4.74 |
| Player B | 6'2'' | 272 | 140 | 36 | 16.5 | 6 | 4.75* |
*Projected
In this case, Player A is Cliff Avril and Player B is Courtney Upshaw. The former Tide linebacker didn't run a 40 at the combine, but he's expected to run between a 4.6 and 4.8, so I erred on the conservative side. Anything sub 4.8 will work given the production and his showing at the Senior Bowl when he was basically unblockable.
Avril is an outstanding 4-3 defensive for the Detroit Lions and actually weighs less. Upshaw is powerful, can anchor the edge and still has the quickness to be disruptive in the backfield.
As a free agent, Avril will get looks from 3-4 teams who believe he can play the rush linebacker position given his size and quickness. Upshaw will be in basically the reverse situation where 4-3 teams will likely believe he can play end, despite having been a rush linebacker in college.
While this analysis doesn't mean Melvin Ingram won't be a good player in the league, the numbers suggest that if he does succeed, he'll be the exception not the rule.
My analysis also shows that West Virginia's Bruce Irvin and Clemon's Andre Branch may be underrated as prospects while Nerbaska's Jared Crick and Marshall's Vinny Curry are overrated.
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