Thursday, July 10, 2008

NFL Season Preview: AFC West

Denver Broncos (7-9)

Offense: The 2007 Denver Broncos offense was not unlike any other Mike Shanahan teams; establish that potent zone running game, and work play action off of the that. The problem was for an offense ranking 9th in rushing and 13th in passing, Denver finished a disappointing 21st in points scored. To make matters worse in 2008, the Broncos big-play receiver Javon Walker will be wearing the silver and black. Brandon Marshall had a breakout season in 2007 and the Broncos put some quality back ups behind him with Keary Colbert, Darrell Jackson, and Sammie Parker filling out the receiving core with Brandon Stokely and one of my favorite receivers in the draft Eddie Royal. Rookie OT Ryan Clady could also help out right away protecting Cutler, as Clady was the premier pass-blocker in this year's draft class.

With Jay Cutler's continued emergence as a quarterback, the biggest issue facing the Broncos is at the running back position. We know Shanahan has a history of just putting anybody back there and finding a 1,000 yard rusher but Selvin Young and Michael Pittman aren't exactly Terrell Davis and Mike Anderson. Rookie Ryan Torian from Arizona State has impressed so far, but it will take some serious Shanahan running back magic to improve the scoring totals of this offense.

Defense: The ineptitude of the Broncos rush defense last season cannot be understated. Denver finished 30th in rush defense and despite the having one of the best corner tandems in the league, finished 28th in points allowed. Subtract starting safety Nick Ferguson and linebacker Ian Gold and the Broncos were in trouble. The Broncos added three safeties in the off-season to supplement their outstanding corner duo, including former charger starter Marlon McCree and the freakishly athletic rookie Josh Barrett from Arizona State.

Otherwise, this defense has not improved significantly upfront after failing to acquire Shuan Rogers or Corey Williams in the off-season. The Broncos did trade for former top 5 pick DeWayne Robertson from the Jets, but he has never proven to be anything but an average tackle inside. Former Lion Boss Bailey was brought in presumably to fill in for Ian Gold, but Bailey is a career underachiever as well. Jim Bates and Bob Slowick are both excellent defensive coaches, but this defense possesses little to no toughness inside and outside of Bailey and Bly on the outside, the defensive backfield has question marks

Outlook: The schedule includes playoff teams 4 of the first 7 weeks plus a visit from the Saints in week three. Things get much easier in the second half, but an 8-8 season looks most likely for the Broncos in a vicious AFC.

San Diego Chargers (11-5)

Offense: Even though Phillip Rivers appeared to have regressed in 2007, LaDanian Tomlinson was the best player in the NFL and took the Chargers all the way to the AFC Championship game. Unfortunately for San Diego, they lost FB Lorenzo Neal and back up RB Michael Turner this offseason from a rushing attack that ranked 7th in the league this past season. Adding H-Back Jacob Hester and UTEP running back Marcus Thomas in the draft fill the spots of the departed Turner and Neal, but as rookies, who knows how productive they can be on a team reaady to compete right now?

For a passing game that ranked a paultry 26th in the NFL last-season, a full season of Chris Chambers and a healthy Antonio Gates should certainly help. Vincent Jackson also came on strong late in the year showing the potential to be an excellent possession compliment to Chambers. With Gates occupying the middle of the field and the seam, expect Jackson to be even more productive this season. Ultimately though, the offense is predicated on Phillip Rivers taking care of the ball. In his first season at the helm, Rivers helped people forget Drew Brees was having an MVP type season in New Orleans. Last year, people wondered if the Chargers had made the right choice. The former N.C. State QB has all the skills, and now has two AFC Championship games under his belt. Luckily for Rivers, he still has the best offensive weapon in football behind him in the backfield.

Defense: Corner Antonio Cromartie has rewarded the Chargers for taking a risk on him when they drafted him in 2006 coming off major knee surgery. That is an understatement. Cromartie lead the league in picks last year and has quickly become one of the elite talents at the corner position with outstanding hands to go with a long frame and quick feet. Cromartie along with Quinten Jammer create a corner tandem that be matched in the AFC only by their rivals in Denver. Gone are CB Drayton Florence and S Marlon McCree as well as DE Shane Olivea. However, Eric Weddle played well late in the year making McCree expendable and when you have Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips rushing the passer, you don't need to have as much depth on the outside. Antoine Cason was drafted in the first round out of Arizona to replace Florence and will give the Chargers another big, physical corner who will fit perfectly into that aggressive, dominating Charger D. With all the young quarterback in the AFC West, expect the Charger defense to continue their streak of terrorizing quarterbacks.

Outlook: NFL Fans will be happy to know both New England and Indianapolis are on the schedule against the Chargers. San Diego fans will be happy to know both games in Qualcom Stadium. If Phillip Rivers plays closer to the 2006 version, the Chargers will be at least 13-3.

Kansas City Chiefs (4-12)

Offense: Questions about Larry Johnson's ability to recover from the pounding he took in 2006 were answered. He can't do it. Head Coach Herm Edwards overworked Johnson and as a result, the running game was not as effective in 2007. With an off-season of recovery, and the talented rookie Jamaal Charles to spell LJ, the Chiefs backfield looks solidifed. Add rookie G/T Brandon Albert and Kansas City looks prepared to once against play the kind of rugged running game that has been then M.O. seemingly forever.

The biggest question mark remains are quarterback. Last year it we saw both Damon Huard and Brodie Croyle and neither looked particularly good. There was some speculation that the Chiefs highly coveted Matt Ryan, but the Falcons ended any thoughts of that when they took him two spots earlier. Whoever is behind center will have a star in the making with Dwane Bowe, plus an underrated rookie, Missouri's William Frankling who has outstanding speed. Tony Gonzalez is still Tony Gonzalez and this offense should be back on track if they can make a decision on a QB.

Defense: Defensively, the Chiefs are probably the most improved team in the division. That is good news after finishing 28th against the run last season. Enter Glenn Dorsey, arguably the top prospect in the draft, but certainly the best defensive prospect if healthy. He is an immediate impact player along the defensive interior in the Warren Sapp mold. Virginia Tech CB Brandon Flowers could be asked to fill Ty Law's corner spot, and Flowers should be more than capable against a relatively weak crop of receivers in the West. K.C. also brought in Atlanta's LB DeMarrio Williams to inject some youth and athleticism in their linebacking group. The Chiefs defense was highly underrated last season, particuarly against the pass finishing 5th in passing yards. Flowers and rookie S DaJuan Morgan should add toughness to a poor tackling defensive backfield. Losing Jared Allen is a major blow, but the Chiefs are building around their young talent, and with Hali and Dorsey upfront, the defensive line will be solid this season.

Outlook: Despite being one of the winners from the draft, too many questions remain at QB. Limited options are receiver only compound that issue. A poor tackling defense has gotten better, but it will certainly not be enough to compete for the division or the playoffs. Add in an unbelievably tough schedule and the Chiefs will be lucky to escape 2008 with 5-11 record.

Oakland Raiders (4-12)

Offense: This is JeMarcus Russell's team now, but if you look at the Raider's stable of running backs, you may get the feeling Lane Kiffin and Al Davis aren't sold Russell is quite ready to carry this offense. Adding Arkansas rookie Darren McFadden was a flashy pick, and perhaps a genius one. If McFadden is anything close to what he was in the SEC, the Raiders will have made the right choice. Anything less, and the Raiders will have screwed it up again. The Raiders offensive line remains spotty despite the addition of Kwame Harris. Where will the carries go? Justin Fargas was paid like "the guy" but McFadden, LaMont Jordan, and Michael Bush are all fully capable. The Raiders have a gazillion backs, all of whom will want the ball. That is a situation worth keeping an eye, to see if Lane Kiffin can keep all his rushers happy.

Adding Javon Walker and Drew Carter on the outside to help Russell was key. Javon Walker can spread a defense assuming his knees are ok and he stays away from Vegas whenever possible. Russell has a huge arm and will love throwing deep to Curry and Walker, particularly off play-action with those aforementioned running backs. Raider fans will tell you that Russell and McFadden make this team extremely dangerous in a weak AFC West. They may be right eventually, but it is doubtful this offense will be significantly better in 2008.

Defense: The key for the Raiders defense this off-season was keeping their best corner Nnamdi Asomugha. Behind him, the Raiders defensive backfield is very young and potentially vulnerable. That is part of the reason they brought in Giants safety Gibril Wilson to play next to Michael Huff, an improving former Texas DB with tremendous talent. Bringing in healthy Fabian Washington and speedy rookie Tyvon Branch will help supplement Asomugha and give the Raiders a solid defensive backfield. Losing DT Tyler Brayton and DE Chris Clemons to free agency hurts up front, but they brought in Kalimba Edwards to replace Clemons as a pass rusher. The offseason saw plenty of spending, but no impact player on defense from a unit that finished 31st against the run and 26th in points. Barring an unforeseen improvement by the personnel already in Oakland, there are simply too many solid rushing teams in the division for the Raiders to have a realistic chance at a playoff birth.

Outlook: I keep hearing that suddenly the Raiders are a playoff team. Not only is that ridiculous but barring a slew of injuries in the division, a .500 record seems out of reach with a defense that can't stop the run, and an offense without cohesion or identity. The schedule is tough once again with trips to New Orleans, Buffalo, and Tampa, plus the division games. Unless JeMarcus Russell becomes a solid QB from week 1, the Raiders could be headed to another 4-12 season. (I fully expect to hear about this from all you excited members of Raider Nation)

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