I predicted yesterday that you'd see one of the crazier first rounds in recent memory. The rookie wage scale has made it a much lower risk to be aggressive and target players higher in the draft.
The point being, it won't cost as much as it used to.
We saw eight trades last night, right around average for the first round (a little over seven is the average), and half of the 32 picks were owned by more than one team at some time or another.
That rookie wage scale may have been why we saw some considerable reaching being done as well. The thought process being, this is the guy we want and we don't have to pay him exorbitant dollars, so let's pull the trigger and not worry about what round we're in.
Guys like Bruce Irvin and A.J. Jenkins didn't even make second round grades coming into the draft, so to see them go in the first, particularly with Jenkins, was shocking.
Some savvy moves from Minnesota (I know, I was as surprised as you were) and New England landed them some solid players with good value.
There are still three legitimate first round players available and as many as nine more fringe first round talents (8 of my top 32 are still available!), so there are plenty of quality players to be had tonight. A team like the Rams, with three picks in the top 13, could get quite a haul of talent, despite missing out on the top two wide receivers in the draft.
1.) Indianapolis Colts (2-14) Andrew Luck QB Stanford (Projected Pick: Andrew Luck)
Needs:OL,RB,LB,WR,CB,DT
Let's not quibble over his potential vs. RG3, this was the right pick and the Colts made it. He's a Pro Bowl player, but he will need some help around him.
2.) Washington Redskins (F/ Rams) Robert Griffin III QB Baylor (Projected Pick: Robert Griffin III)
Needs: QB,DL,OL,TE,DB
His draft day hat is about the only thing that doesn't fit about RG3 and Washington. This offense was made for a quarterback with quickness and a strong arm. The Redskins gave up a lot, but they got a franchise player in return.
3.) Cleveland Browns (F/ Vikings) Trent Richardson RB Alabama (Projected Pick: Justin Blackmon)
Needs: WR,OL,S,RB,QB,OLB
Somehow, the Vikings suckered the Browns into believing either the Jets or the Bucs were seriously considering moving into the #3 spot to take Richardson, so Cleveland made sure that didn't happen. Richardson immediately becomes on of the elite running backs in the league. I still think staying put and taking Blackmon made more sense.
4.) Minnesota Vikings (F/ Browns) Matt Khalil OT USC (Projected Pick: Matt Khalil)
Needs: OL,DB,WR,DT,LB
Well played Vikings. I tried to tell you yesterday Minnesota intended all along to take Khalil, although I think they would have been genuinely happy to take Claiborne if they had to. Khalil has Pro Bowl potential as a left tackle, but there are concerns about his strength and power anchoring. Vikes needed him badly.
5.) Jacksonville Jaguars (F/ Buccaneers) Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State (Projected Pick: Melvin Ingram DE/DT South Carolina)
Needs: WR,DE,OL,DB,RB
I predicted the Jags would trade down if Blackmon didn't fall, but when the Oklahoma State receiver got past the Vikings, Jacksonville didn't waste any time. Blackmon will be Blaine Gabbert's top target with his powerful body and excellent hands. Concerns about his speed are vastly overrated. As Mel Kiper Jr. noted last night, you never saw anyone catch him from behind.
6.) Dallas Cowboys (8-8) Morris Claiborne CB LSU (Projected Pick: Michael Brockers)
Needs: OL,DL,DB,WR,TE
Allegedly (I say that because who knows what to believe with Jerry Jones), Claiborne was the highest rated corner of their board since Deion Sanders. To me, that's ridiculous with guys like Charles Woodson and Champ Bailey having been drafted since then and Claiborne isn't even close to their talent. Dallas needed the help in the secondary though and got a corner with excellent ball skills. He's still overrated in my opinion.
7.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (F/ Jaguars) Mark Barron S Alabama (Projected Pick: Trent Richardson)
Needs: LB,DB,OL,TE,RB,WR
Tampa knew when it traded back that the chances they'd land Morris Claiborne were slim. Barron, to me, is the first real reach of this draft, although I think he's going to be a solid NFL player. Under the old CBA, I think there's no way Tampa takes a safety this high and a guy like Luke Kuechley would have been more likely.
8.) Miami Dolphins (6-10) Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M (Projected Pick: Ryan Tannehill)
Needs: OL,QB,WR,LB,TE,S
The best thing I can say about this pick is at least they didn't trade up. Tannehill has more upside than the quarterbacks after him in this draft, but he has a lower floor than the next few as well. It's the best case scenario for Tannehill however, with his former head coach and Aaron Rodger's former coach running this offense.
9.) Carolina Panthers (6-10) Luke Kuechley MLB Boston College (Projected Pick: Luke Kuechley)
Needs: CB,WR,S,LB, DL
Good for the Panthers for sticking to their board here and taking the best player who can help them next year. Kuechley is a unique linebacker talent with outstanding awareness to read and react, especially in coverage. A pass rusher had to have been tempting, but Kuechley isn't just a "safe" pick, he has Pro Bowl talent.
10.) Buffalo Bills (6-10) Stephon Gilmore CB South Carolina (Projected Pick: Stephon Gilmore)
Needs: OL,WR,LB,DB,TE
This was a pick I'd projected, but not necessarily what I would have done. I have Kirkpatrick rated higher than Gilmore, but a ton of NFL personnel had it this way. I can't argue the position though because the Bills have struggled to find corners to play against the pass happy teams in the AFC.
11.) Kansas City Chiefs (7-9) Dontari Poe DT Memphis (Projected Pick: Mark Barron)
Needs: WR,TE,OL,NT,LB
Immediately after the combine, I pegged this as a potential landing spot for Poe. The Chiefs desperately needed a nose tackle to eat up blocks and help what was a horrible run defense. Poe doesn't show on film what he flashed at the combine, but if anyone can get maximize his talent it's Romeo Crennel, an excellent former d-line coach.
12.) Philadelphia Eagles (F/ Seahawks) Fletcher Cox DT Mississippi State (Projected Pick: Fletcher Cox)
Needs:OL,LB,DT,S,RB,WR
Only the second pick so far in the draft with a net positive value, the Eagles get the best defensive tackle in the draft to anchor a defensive line with explosive ends but a flimsy middle. Cox has monster potential and makes this Eagles defense better right away with his power and quickness.
13.) Arizona Cardinals (8-8) Michael Floyd WR Notre Dame (Projected Pick: Riley Reiff OT Iowa)
Needs: OL,OLB,WR,DB,RB
There were greater needs and better values available with this pick, but Arizona got the player they wanted and in the process created a dynamic receiver tandem with Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald. As I tweeted last night, if Kevin Kolb can't complete passes to these guys, he should just retire.
14.) St. Louis Rams (F/ Cowboys) Michael Brockers DT LSU (Projected Pick: Morris Claiborne)
Needs: WR,DB,OL,OLB,DT
St. Louis twice missed out on taking the best receiver available by just one pick while also failing to get one of the top corners in the draft. Brockers has been a Rams target all along and apparently was a consideration at #6 if they'd stayed. In terms of physical tools, Brockers is an impact run-stopper right away in the NFL and has the potential to be a solid pass rusher with some work.
15.) Seattle Seahawks (F/ Eagles) Bruce Irvin DE/OLB West Virginia (Projected Pick: Quinton Coples)
Needs: OL,LB,CB,TE,WR
Seattle had their choice of any pass rusher in the draft, yet they chose a guy who was a fringe second round prospect. Irvin is one of the most unique athletes we've seen as a defensive end with 4.4 speed, but his size and strength limitations are concerning, especially for a 4-3 team. He's a situational rusher in the NFL and the Seahawks have to hope they catch lightening in a bottle the way the 49ers did last year with Aldon Smith's situation rush success.
16.) New York Jets (8-8) Quinton Coples DE North Carolina (Projected Pick: Michael Floyd)
Needs: OLB,OL,WR,DL,RB
Some are down on this pick for the Jets, but I'm one of the few who thinks this a great fit. Coples is perhaps the most physically gifted pass rusher in the draft, but doesn't always give consistent effort. On a defense with players like David Harris and Darrelle Revis, not to mention lead by Rex Ryan, I don't see how Coples gives any less than 100%. If he plays hard, there is scary talent in that big body, to the point there was speculation heading into the season Coples could be a top 5 pick.
17.) Bengals (F/ Oakland) Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama (Projected Pick: Dre Kirkpatrick)
Needs: DB,G,WR,RB,LB
Plenty of people were shocked when Cinci pulled the trigger on Kirkpatrick over such an outstanding guard like David DeCastro. You could argue that guard was a greater position of need, although, as I argued yesterday, Kirkpatrick plays an impact position. You need at least three corners to be successful in the NFL with these offenses and the Bengals get one of the more underrated talents in the draft.
18.) San Diego Chargers (8-8) Melvin Ingram OLB South Carolina (Projected Pick:David DeCastro)
Needs: DL,LB,OL,DB,WR
The Chargers might be the only team I can begrudge taking someone over DeCastro because pass rush has been such a problem for this team. Shaun Phillips is getting older and outside of Antwan Barnes, this team doesn't have much. Ingram is a versatile defender with a relentless motor and while I'm not as high on him as others, I think this is a perfect team at a perfect spot in the draft for him.
19.) Chicago Bears (8-8) Shea McClellin DE Boise State (Projected Pick: Whitney Mercilus)
Needs: OL,CB,DE,TE,LB
This one is a head-scratcher because Chicago's defensive line is in much better shape than the offensive line, not to mention McClellin is, at best, the fourth best available pass rusher. Kendall Wright would have made more sense as well. McClellin will be an under-sized 4-3 defensive end who relies on quickness and relentlessness to get to the quarterback. He's a poor man's Clay Matthews, making this a big-time reach.
20.) Tennessee Titans (9-7) Kendall Wright WR Baylor (Projected Pick: Dontari Poe)
Needs: WR,CB,DL,TE,OL
I can't question this pick here because I've projected it at various times throughout the draft process, but there may be a question of value here. That being said, Wright is a potentially explosive compliment to the bigger receivers Tennessee already has and can work out of the slot with success. Given Tennessee's apparent focus on interior blocking this year, I was somewhat surprised to see the Titans also pass on DeCastro.
21.) New England Patriots (F/ Bengals) Chandler Jones DE Syracuse (Projected Pick: Chandler Jones)
Needs:DE,DB,OL,RB,LB
Terrific pick for the Patriots who get a player to bring a pass rush back to this defense. Jones was hurt to start the year, otherwise he likely would have been a first round prospect heading into the draft process. His closing speed is what makes him so attractive because once he gets around the corner he's on top of the ball carrier in a hurry. Trading up is worth it for the Pats, who needed to make sure they get one of these first round rushers and had plenty of picks to use.
22.) Cleveland Browns (F/ Atlanta) Brandon Weeden QB Oklahoma State (Projected Pick Jonathan Martin)
Needs: WR,OL,S,RB,QB,OLB
This was one of the worst kept secrets of the draft. Everyone knew the Browns wanted to take Weeden, but Cleveland was worried he wouldn't last until the top of the second round (I'm not convinced they were wrong about that). I predicted they'd trade back into the first to nab Weeden late, but instead they sit at #22 to take the Oklahoma state quarterback. At 28, age is a concern, but Weeden is as NFL ready as any player in the draft and if he can be a legitimate starter for seven or eight seasons, that's all you can ask for late in the first.
23.) Detroit Lions (10-6) Riley Reiff OT Iowa (Projected Pick: Dont'a Hightower)
Needs: DB,LB,RB,WR,OL
Detroit finally gets to feel the euphoria of watching a highly-ranked player at a need position fall because the teams ahead of you are reaching. Usually it's the other way around and the Lions are the ones doing the reaching. In this case though, the Lions grab the second best tackle in the draft as he tumbled down the board, much like the Packers did with fellow Iowa tackle Bryan Bulaga. Reiff isn't quite as talented as Bulaga, but is just as polished and physical. Great pick for the Lions.
24.) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) David DeCastro G Stanford (Projected Pick: Courtney Upshaw)
Needs: OL,DL,LB,RB,DB
Perhaps no team in the league is better at letting the draft come to them than the Pittsburgh Steelers and this pick shows why. DeCastro has been compared to current Steelers guard Alan Faneca and may be the best guard prospect since Steve Hutchinson. To get a player at such a need position with this kind of value is a bit of luck, but Pittsburgh still had to make the pick. There may not be a better fit between player and team in the whole draft.
25.) New England Patriots (F/ Broncos) Dont'a Hightower LB Alabama (Projected Pick: Trade w/ Browns)
Needs:DE,DB,OL,RB,LB
An unusually aggressive Patriots draft nabs them a tough, physical linebacker for a team lacking the kind of hard-hitting mentality Hightower brings. Playing downhill and always looking to blow someone up, Hightower probably won't play middle linebacker because his coverage skills leave something to be desired. As as an outside 'backer and situational pass rusher, Hightower can be an impact player for the Patriots who are now loaded with former SEC linebackers.
26.) Houston Texans (10-6) Whitney Mercilus DE Illinois (Projected Pick: Kendall Wright)
Needs: S,WR,OL,DE,QB
The rich get richer as the Texans, much improved on defense a year ago, add a dynamic sackman from Illinois to help replace Mario Williams. The two are actually physically similar with long, lean bodies, although Williams is stronger and more powerful coming off the corner. Houston could use Mercilus as a 3-4 linebacker or end depending on the situation and with guys like J.J. Watt and Brooks Reed, he'll have time to develop after just one year as a starter in college.
27.) Cincinnati Bengals (F/ Patriots) Kevin Zeitler G Wisconsin (Projected Pick Cordy Glenn)
Needs: DB,G,WR,RB,LB
If the Bengals wanted a guard, I don't know why they didn't just take DeCastro at #21 instead of trading back to take Zeitler who is a solid player, but doesn't have the upside of DeCastro. That being said, the Bengals did acquire picks and were able to grab a smart, physical player who is the kind of mauler the Bengals love to have upfront. Solid pick, but it's hard to be too excited when you could have had one of the top 10 talents in this draft at the same position.
28.) Green Bay Packers (15-1) Nick Perry OLB USC (Projected Pick: Nick Perry)
Needs: OLB,DL,S,OL,CB
Cheeshead Nation may have been more excited about Courtney Upshaw, but when it comes to upside, Perry was a top 10 guy as a pass rusher. With explosive speed and power, Perry flashes the ability take move his 271 pound frame exceedingly well (He ran a 4.58 at the combine. That's unreal). Unfortunately, he'll disappear at times, whether it's conditioning or hustle or both. Even so, Green Bay has the coaches - Kevin Greene and Dom Capers - to maximize his vast talents. Great pick.
29.) Minnesota Vikings (F/ Ravens) Harrison Smith S Notre Dame (Projected Pick: None)
Needs: OL,DB,WR,DT,LB
This was a pick where the Vikings reached, but it's hard to blame them for it. Minnesota's defensive backfield is a shambles and Smith was the second best safety in the draft, even if he's rated as a second rounder. His range isn't great and his impact is more in the box, so he's not a great fit for the Cover 2 defense in Minnesota, but the secondary had to be improved somehow.
30.) San Francisco 49ers (13-3) A.J. Jenkins WR Illinois (Projected Pick:Amini Silatolu)
Needs: CB,OL,S,RB,DL,TE
If Bruce Irvin was a reach then this was a staggering, falling down grab. I guess if you're the 49ers you have Jenkins targeted as a big play slot receiver and you don't care about value. Jenkins had been a rising prospect, but I had him at #99 overall which means I didn't expect him to have his name called until Saturday. I think that tells you what I think of this pick.
31.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (F/ Broncos) Doug Martin RB Boise State (Projected Pick: Trade)
Needs: LB,DB,OL,TE,RB,WR
This pick changed hands twice before the Bucs snatched it up to take the versatile Boise running back. After trading back with Richardson off the board, it's not surprising that Greg Schiano would want a player with Martin's skill set for his offense. Martin can be a poor man's Ray Rice with his versatility and given that Rice played for Schiano at Rutgers, this pick makes a lot of sense.
32.) New York Giants (9-7) David Wilson RB Virginia Tech (Projected Pick: Levonte David)
Needs: OL,CB,LB,RB,WR
New York makes a somewhat surprising pick to end the round with the speedy running back from Virginia Tech. Wilson is actually very similar to Ahmad Bradshaw, down to the fumbling and durability concerns. New York did have a need at running back, but with a versatile offensive lineman like Cordy Glenn or a pass-catching tight end like Coby Fleener still on the board, this seems somewhat strange.
The top 10 players still available heading into tonight:
1.) Courtney Upshaw OLB Alabama (19)
2.) Cordy Glenn OT/G Georgia (21)
3.) Levonte David OLB Nebraska (25)
4.) Jonathan Martin OT Stanford (26)
5.) Devon Still DT Penn State (28)
6.) Coby Fleener TE Stanford (29)
7.) Peter Konz C Wisconsin (30)
8.) Stephen Hill WR Georgia Tech (32)
9.) Jerel Worthy DT Michigan State (33)
10.) Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama (35)
Showing posts with label 2012 NFL Draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2012 NFL Draft. Show all posts
Friday, April 27, 2012
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: St. Louis Rams
If there is a team picking in the top 10 capable of a quick turnaround, the St. Louis Rams are that team.
St. Louis will have massive roster turnover from the 2011 to the 2012 season, which is a good thing for a team finishing with just two wins last season.
Jeff Fisher was brought on board to bring some credibility back to the Rams and with Sam Bradford healthy, along with a sizable influx of free agent talent, St. Louis is poised for a bounceback season.
Will they make the playoffs? I doubt it, but when you go from an 8-8 team to a 2-14 team, thanks in large part to injuries, it's not hard to make a return to .500 a realistic goal.
The Rams offense was one of the worst in the league last year with Sam Bradford and Stephen Jackson hurt much of the year.
Bare cupboards at the skill positions were the biggest problem for St. Louis and with the injuries, there wasn't time for the below average players to develop any rhythm or continuity.
Some veteran talent was brought on board and the Rams have three picks in the top 40 thanks to the trade with the Redskins.
A full offseason with better talent surrounding him should help the development of Sam Bradford who still has a chance to be an elite quarterback in the league.
His development hinges on this draft, particularly with the glut of picks the Rams have at their disposal. They've played the free agent market well: let the lackluster players leave and seek good value at other positions.
Now, we'll see if they can do the same in the draft.
Offense
The Greatest Show on Turf is a distant memory when you look at the players on this offense. Brandon Lloyd, the team's best receiver last year signed with the Patriots in the offseason.
Former Eagle Steve Smith was signed coming off injury, but if he is healthy he'd be a solid possession receiver. That being said, getting some explosive talent on offense remains the biggest focus of the team for this season and beyond.
There are plenty of talented receivers, a few quality tight ends and some good running backs to choose from in this draft. St. Louis would be wise to grab one of each and maybe a few of the pass-catchers to facilitate the development of Bradford.
Along the front, the Rams should be an improved team, signing Scott Wells from Green Bay and Quinn Ojinnaka from Indianapolis. Wells is one of the best centers in the game and Ojinnaka does have some starting experience.
St. Louis has a franchise quarterback and running back, but essentially nothing else on offense. They could spend their first three picks on offense and still need help.
Key Free Agents:Danny Amendola WR, Billy Bajema TE, Jacob Bell G (signed w/ Bengals), Jason Brown C, Mark Clayton WR, Kellen Clemens QB (re-signed w/ Rams), A.J. Feeley QB, Adam Goldberg OT, Mark LeVoir OT, Brandon Lloyd WR (signed w/ Patriots), Jerious Norwood RB, Stephen Spach, Cadillac Williams RB, Tony Wragge C
Defense
This front four was a big reason why the Rams finished 7th in the league in passing. That stat though, is a little misleading because the Rams were behind so many games late, teams ran the ball to protect leads.
When it came to keeping teams from scoring, the Rams were 26th in the league in points allowed. St. Louis has quality pass rushers with Chris Long and Robert Quinn. Long-time defensive end James Hall was cut to give Quinn more playing time and the ultra-talented, former Tar Heel is poised for a break-out season.
Trevor Laws, Kendall Langord and Williams Hayes were all signed to bolster this defensive front and improve on a defense that was second to last in stopping the run. A continued push through the draft to get better along the front seven should be expected.
Corner and linebacker are the two major areas of concern for the Rams. Cortland Finnegan, a Pro Bowl corner in Tennessee, was signed to improve a horrendous secondary. Jo-Lonn Dunbar was signed from the Saints to bring some veteran leadership, but he's hardly an elite talent.
With a deep corner class, the Rams should be able to find some young talent to fill the holes in the secondary. It's worth it to spend an early pick on a linebacker because the depth of this class falls off considerably after the first few players.
The holes on this team are as obvious as they are numerous and St. Louis can't go wrong with whichever positions they chose to address.
Key Free Agents: Mikail Baker DB (signed w/ Chiefs), Justin Bannan DT (signed w/ Broncos), Ron Bartell CB (signed w/ Raiders), James Butler DB, Chris Chamberlain OLB (signed w/ Saints), Craig Dahl SS, Gary Gibson DT, Al Harris CB, Roderick Hood CB, Bryan Kehl OLB (signed w/ Redskins), Justin King CB, Ben Leber OLB, Brady Poppinga OLB,
Draft Targets
Round 2 (Pick 33): Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 35)
As there tends to be at the start of the second round, the Rams will have a first round talent to pick from here. Jenkins was long considered a first round pick, but off the field concerns have scared some teams away. Needs in the secondary might just be too pressing for the Rams to pass here and with another second round pick just six selections later, St. Louis can afford to take a calculated risk here. Jenkins, as a strict coverman, is without peers in this draft. His quickness and instincts are terrific, but he's not a great tackler and his work ethic is a question mark. This is a boom or bust pick, but one that the Rams can afford to make.
Round 2 (Pick 39 F/ Redskins): Zach Brown OLB North Carolina (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 38)
After going after a high risk/high reward player at 33, a pick like Brown doesn't make as much sense, but the value is right and Brown's athletic skills are unquestioned. Brown just might be the best athlete at any position in the draft. His unmatched speed is actually a hindrance occasionally, because he'll overrun plays, but if he can throttle down a little and play more under control, he can be a difference-maker. Running back Lamar Miller or offensive tackle Mike Adams could also make sense here, but Brown has the most upside of that group and plays a position of extreme need.
St. Louis will have massive roster turnover from the 2011 to the 2012 season, which is a good thing for a team finishing with just two wins last season.
Jeff Fisher was brought on board to bring some credibility back to the Rams and with Sam Bradford healthy, along with a sizable influx of free agent talent, St. Louis is poised for a bounceback season.
Will they make the playoffs? I doubt it, but when you go from an 8-8 team to a 2-14 team, thanks in large part to injuries, it's not hard to make a return to .500 a realistic goal.
The Rams offense was one of the worst in the league last year with Sam Bradford and Stephen Jackson hurt much of the year.
Bare cupboards at the skill positions were the biggest problem for St. Louis and with the injuries, there wasn't time for the below average players to develop any rhythm or continuity.
Some veteran talent was brought on board and the Rams have three picks in the top 40 thanks to the trade with the Redskins.
A full offseason with better talent surrounding him should help the development of Sam Bradford who still has a chance to be an elite quarterback in the league.
His development hinges on this draft, particularly with the glut of picks the Rams have at their disposal. They've played the free agent market well: let the lackluster players leave and seek good value at other positions.
Now, we'll see if they can do the same in the draft.
Offense
The Greatest Show on Turf is a distant memory when you look at the players on this offense. Brandon Lloyd, the team's best receiver last year signed with the Patriots in the offseason.
Former Eagle Steve Smith was signed coming off injury, but if he is healthy he'd be a solid possession receiver. That being said, getting some explosive talent on offense remains the biggest focus of the team for this season and beyond.
There are plenty of talented receivers, a few quality tight ends and some good running backs to choose from in this draft. St. Louis would be wise to grab one of each and maybe a few of the pass-catchers to facilitate the development of Bradford.
Along the front, the Rams should be an improved team, signing Scott Wells from Green Bay and Quinn Ojinnaka from Indianapolis. Wells is one of the best centers in the game and Ojinnaka does have some starting experience.
St. Louis has a franchise quarterback and running back, but essentially nothing else on offense. They could spend their first three picks on offense and still need help.
Key Free Agents:Danny Amendola WR, Billy Bajema TE, Jacob Bell G (signed w/ Bengals), Jason Brown C, Mark Clayton WR, Kellen Clemens QB (re-signed w/ Rams), A.J. Feeley QB, Adam Goldberg OT, Mark LeVoir OT, Brandon Lloyd WR (signed w/ Patriots), Jerious Norwood RB, Stephen Spach, Cadillac Williams RB, Tony Wragge C
Defense
This front four was a big reason why the Rams finished 7th in the league in passing. That stat though, is a little misleading because the Rams were behind so many games late, teams ran the ball to protect leads.
When it came to keeping teams from scoring, the Rams were 26th in the league in points allowed. St. Louis has quality pass rushers with Chris Long and Robert Quinn. Long-time defensive end James Hall was cut to give Quinn more playing time and the ultra-talented, former Tar Heel is poised for a break-out season.
Trevor Laws, Kendall Langord and Williams Hayes were all signed to bolster this defensive front and improve on a defense that was second to last in stopping the run. A continued push through the draft to get better along the front seven should be expected.
Corner and linebacker are the two major areas of concern for the Rams. Cortland Finnegan, a Pro Bowl corner in Tennessee, was signed to improve a horrendous secondary. Jo-Lonn Dunbar was signed from the Saints to bring some veteran leadership, but he's hardly an elite talent.
With a deep corner class, the Rams should be able to find some young talent to fill the holes in the secondary. It's worth it to spend an early pick on a linebacker because the depth of this class falls off considerably after the first few players.
The holes on this team are as obvious as they are numerous and St. Louis can't go wrong with whichever positions they chose to address.
Key Free Agents: Mikail Baker DB (signed w/ Chiefs), Justin Bannan DT (signed w/ Broncos), Ron Bartell CB (signed w/ Raiders), James Butler DB, Chris Chamberlain OLB (signed w/ Saints), Craig Dahl SS, Gary Gibson DT, Al Harris CB, Roderick Hood CB, Bryan Kehl OLB (signed w/ Redskins), Justin King CB, Ben Leber OLB, Brady Poppinga OLB,
Draft Targets
Needs: WR,DB,OL,OLB,DT
Round 1 (Pick 6 F/ Redskins): Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 6)
Round 1 (Pick 6 F/ Redskins): Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 6)
Silly season has thrown out a lot of ideas to what might happen with this pick. Some believe the Rams could even trade back up to get Trent Richardson to replace Stephen Jackson. St. Louis is reported to be very high on Richardson and Mississippi State tackle Fletcher Cox and there are teams apparently willing to trade up with Tampa Bay to snatch Cox before the Rams. Blackmon, though, makes the most sense here under just about any circumstance. He's the best receiver in this draft and is just a step below elite. Especially on turf, he's explosive enough to be a #1 receiver and I think he is physical enough to overcome some of his athletic deficiencies. The talk about Blackmon being overrated, to me, is silliness.
Round 2 (Pick 33): Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 35)
As there tends to be at the start of the second round, the Rams will have a first round talent to pick from here. Jenkins was long considered a first round pick, but off the field concerns have scared some teams away. Needs in the secondary might just be too pressing for the Rams to pass here and with another second round pick just six selections later, St. Louis can afford to take a calculated risk here. Jenkins, as a strict coverman, is without peers in this draft. His quickness and instincts are terrific, but he's not a great tackler and his work ethic is a question mark. This is a boom or bust pick, but one that the Rams can afford to make.
Round 2 (Pick 39 F/ Redskins): Zach Brown OLB North Carolina (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 38)
After going after a high risk/high reward player at 33, a pick like Brown doesn't make as much sense, but the value is right and Brown's athletic skills are unquestioned. Brown just might be the best athlete at any position in the draft. His unmatched speed is actually a hindrance occasionally, because he'll overrun plays, but if he can throttle down a little and play more under control, he can be a difference-maker. Running back Lamar Miller or offensive tackle Mike Adams could also make sense here, but Brown has the most upside of that group and plays a position of extreme need.
Round 3 (Pick 65): Orson Charles TE Georgia (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 66)
I love this pick for the Rams because Charles is the kind of player who could be a monster in this offense. On turf, his speed and strength would be amplified and with a quality running game, Charles could be extremely dangerous in the middle of the field. From an athletic standpoint, much like Brown, Charles is peerless in this draft. He definitely passes the eye test, but his strength doesn't make up for his relative lack of size. That means blocking won't be his forte, but as a receiver, Charles could be devastating. It wouldn't take much for him to become Bradford's favorite target in short order, particularly since Bradford loved to use the tight ends at Oklahoma (the last time he had quality tight ends).
Overall
Four picks in the top 70 should net you at least two starters and this group could have four and this class would undoubtedly have the most upside of any in the NFL. The athletes in this draft would be terrific on the field turf at the Edwards Jones Dome and with the veteran talent brought in this offseason, would create a great balance of you and experienced players. Jeff Fisher wasn't brought to St. Louis to not make an impact. He was part of the decision makers when the Titans took Vince Young and more recently Chris Johnson, when it was obvious their biggest needs were at wide receiver. Young had one of the best rookie years for a quarterback in recent memory and CJ2K turned into one of the most explosive players in the history of the league (last season was the exception not the rule). Fisher is here to make an impact and he'll get impact players in this draft.
Four picks in the top 70 should net you at least two starters and this group could have four and this class would undoubtedly have the most upside of any in the NFL. The athletes in this draft would be terrific on the field turf at the Edwards Jones Dome and with the veteran talent brought in this offseason, would create a great balance of you and experienced players. Jeff Fisher wasn't brought to St. Louis to not make an impact. He was part of the decision makers when the Titans took Vince Young and more recently Chris Johnson, when it was obvious their biggest needs were at wide receiver. Young had one of the best rookie years for a quarterback in recent memory and CJ2K turned into one of the most explosive players in the history of the league (last season was the exception not the rule). Fisher is here to make an impact and he'll get impact players in this draft.
Final Thought
Again, I think the Rams are a bounceback team in 2012. If they gave an award for comeback team of the year, I think St. Louis would have to be considered a favorite. I'm not sure they can win enough games to make the playoffs ahead of the teams in the East and North, but they're going to be much improved. With a draft like this, the Rams could quickly become one of the most athletic and explosive teams in the league. For this team, though, 2012 isn't the end goal. They can't and won't compete this upcoming season for a title, but in the next three or four years, I think there's reason to believe they can. Bradford and Long form the same kind of offensive/defensive cornerstone duo like Stafford/Suh, Rodgers/Matthews, Romo/Ware and the other elite combo's in the NFC. A solid draft would put the Rams on the right track to take the proverbial next step.
Again, I think the Rams are a bounceback team in 2012. If they gave an award for comeback team of the year, I think St. Louis would have to be considered a favorite. I'm not sure they can win enough games to make the playoffs ahead of the teams in the East and North, but they're going to be much improved. With a draft like this, the Rams could quickly become one of the most athletic and explosive teams in the league. For this team, though, 2012 isn't the end goal. They can't and won't compete this upcoming season for a title, but in the next three or four years, I think there's reason to believe they can. Bradford and Long form the same kind of offensive/defensive cornerstone duo like Stafford/Suh, Rodgers/Matthews, Romo/Ware and the other elite combo's in the NFC. A solid draft would put the Rams on the right track to take the proverbial next step.
Monday, April 23, 2012
2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Cleveland Browns
Watching this team last year, it was hard to understand how they had four wins. I mean that in a good way...and in a bad way.
There were games where the Browns played extremely well and still lost (the Steelers game is a good example), and others where they didn't play so well and won.
Offensively, this was probably the worst team in football last year, finishing 30th in points 29th in yards and no higher than 24th in any major category.
Defensively, it was the exact opposite as the Browns finished 5th in points allowed, 10th in total yards and 2nd in passing yards.
Those are incredible stats when you consider Cleveland finished third to last in the league against the run. Part of the problem there was they were losing so often late in games that teams were constantly running in the fourth quarter to protect leads.
On the other hand, it would be easy to argue that with some offensive upgrades, this defense is good enough to keep them in games and account for a few more wins.
That means starting with the quarterback. Can Colt McCoy play? It seems like McCoy isn't truly the problem in Cleveland, but rather that they have no pieces around him.
If he were in a situation like Cam Newton with guys like Steve Smith, Greg Olsen, Johnathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams around him and they couldn't score, then you could look at the young quarterback and just flatly dismiss his abilities.
Unfortunately, the Browns don't know whether or not McCoy is any good because they haven't put in a position to succeed with talent around him.
Cleveland may take a quarterback high in this draft, but McCoy will get one more chance to show some potential this year and the Browns are going to spend high draft choices on impact offensive players to give him a better shot.
Offense
Free agency took some familiar faces from this Cleveland roster, some for the better. Peyton Hillis had become public enemy #1 for Cleveland fans after throwing a tantrum most of the season about his contract, appearing to fake injuries, and playing terribly once he was actually on the field.
The loss of Artis Hicks, Steve Vallos and Eric Steinbach, on the other hand, hurt considerably more. When you have a young quarterback and below average receivers, you better at least have a quality line to give your quarterback time to throw. Without some help in the draft and/or free agency, this looks like a leaky group.
Obviously, the biggest need on this team is at the skill positions. There's no running back, tight end or receiver on this team who opponents must account for. It's unarguably the worst group in the league and for Colt McCoy to have any chance to win games, they must improve there.
Luckily, the Browns have two first round picks to address those positions in a draft with quality depth at wide receiver and running back.
Cleveland is apparently very high on Brandon Weeden despite his age and would consider him in the second round. That seems like a strange choice given that Cleveland lacks so many pieces, it wouldn't have a decent team until Weeden was at least 30.
Key Free Agents: Oniel Cousins OT (re-signed w/ Browns), Artis Hicks OT (signed w/ Dolphins), Peyton Hillis RB (signed w/ Chiefs), Jordan Norwood WR (re-signed w/ Browns), Alex Smith TE (re-signed w/ Browns), Eric Steinbach G, Steve Vallos OT (signed w/ Eagles),
Defense
Cleveland's defense was surprisingly effective last year, despite lacking big-name players. Joe Haden has developed into one of the best corners in the game and D'Qwell Jackson is perhaps the most underrated defensive player in the league.
Juqua Parker and Frostee Rucker were signed to bolster this defensive line, although rookie Jabaal Sheard was extremely productive, notching 8.5 sacks and forcing 5 fumbles. This teams does need help from the defensive line to get stops in the run game, so getting Parker and Rucker should improve the overall strength of the group.
There are some deficiencies at linebacker outside of Jackson and while this isn't a particularly deep draft at outside linebacker, I wouldn't be surprised to see a middle round pick used to get some depth there.
The Browns can certainly rely on this defense to consistently keep them in games because the Browns faced some of the best offenses in the league last year and stood up to all of them. There is some good, young talent on the defense. If only the offense could say the same.
Key Free Agents: Mike Adams S (signed w/ Broncos), Jayme Mitchell DE, Dimitri Patterson CB (re-signed w/ Browns), Brian Schaefering NT (re-signed w/ Browns), DeAngelo Smith DB (signed w/ Jets),
Draft Targets
Rount 1 (Pick 22 F/ Falcons) Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 18)
While I don't think this will happen, I think it should. There's no way Tannehill belongs in the top 25, much less the top 5 like has been discussed. On potential, you can justify him here at #22 but much higher, I don't see it. It sounds like the Browns have cooled on the idea of Tannehill at 4, which makes the most likely landing spot now #8 to the Dolphins with the owner making a late push for the A&M signall-caller. Tannehill has great athletic talent, but isn't an accurate thrower, nor does he have outstanding arm strength. As a leader, I think he's terrific, but look at the big games he's played in college and you'll see he was a big reason why his team lost those games more frequently than they won them. That's not a trait I want in my franchise quarterback.
Round 2 (Pick 36): Kevin Zeitler G Wisconsin (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 39)
Cleveland already has an all-pro former Badger offensive lineman and regardless of which skill position player you take at #4, the offensive line has to get better. Zeitler is one of the safest picks in the draft, a sure-fire 10 year pro who will always execute. His ceiling isn't as high as some of the other lineman in this draft, but Mike Holmgren likes guys with a history of success and no one has been more successful at his craft than Zeitler. If they go Khalil or Blackmon at the top of the first, a running back like David Wilson or a pass rusher like Andre Branch could be a fit here as well, but if they are going to try and make the Colt McCoy experiment a success, they have to improve the pieces around him, and offensive line is a huge problem right now.
Overall
Richardson or Blackmon will almost certainly be the pick at #4 and immediately brings an impact player to an offense without one. I like either pick, although I think Richardson does seem somewhat more likely. I'd be on board if Tannehill did fall to the Browns at 22 (he won't), but there will likely be a quality receiver like Kendall Wright, which makes Richardson all the more valuable at #4. Zeitler would be a Day 1 starter for the Browns even if the value isn't exactly where you'd like it. That being said, he's a first round player on plenty of team's boards and I don't think it qualifies as a reach there. I expect to see plenty of skill position players in this class for the Browns, so don't be surprised to see multiple receivers taken, which makes Adams a solid pick in the third round.
There were games where the Browns played extremely well and still lost (the Steelers game is a good example), and others where they didn't play so well and won.
Offensively, this was probably the worst team in football last year, finishing 30th in points 29th in yards and no higher than 24th in any major category.
Defensively, it was the exact opposite as the Browns finished 5th in points allowed, 10th in total yards and 2nd in passing yards.
Those are incredible stats when you consider Cleveland finished third to last in the league against the run. Part of the problem there was they were losing so often late in games that teams were constantly running in the fourth quarter to protect leads.
On the other hand, it would be easy to argue that with some offensive upgrades, this defense is good enough to keep them in games and account for a few more wins.
That means starting with the quarterback. Can Colt McCoy play? It seems like McCoy isn't truly the problem in Cleveland, but rather that they have no pieces around him.
If he were in a situation like Cam Newton with guys like Steve Smith, Greg Olsen, Johnathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams around him and they couldn't score, then you could look at the young quarterback and just flatly dismiss his abilities.
Unfortunately, the Browns don't know whether or not McCoy is any good because they haven't put in a position to succeed with talent around him.
Cleveland may take a quarterback high in this draft, but McCoy will get one more chance to show some potential this year and the Browns are going to spend high draft choices on impact offensive players to give him a better shot.
Offense
Free agency took some familiar faces from this Cleveland roster, some for the better. Peyton Hillis had become public enemy #1 for Cleveland fans after throwing a tantrum most of the season about his contract, appearing to fake injuries, and playing terribly once he was actually on the field.
The loss of Artis Hicks, Steve Vallos and Eric Steinbach, on the other hand, hurt considerably more. When you have a young quarterback and below average receivers, you better at least have a quality line to give your quarterback time to throw. Without some help in the draft and/or free agency, this looks like a leaky group.
Obviously, the biggest need on this team is at the skill positions. There's no running back, tight end or receiver on this team who opponents must account for. It's unarguably the worst group in the league and for Colt McCoy to have any chance to win games, they must improve there.
Luckily, the Browns have two first round picks to address those positions in a draft with quality depth at wide receiver and running back.
Cleveland is apparently very high on Brandon Weeden despite his age and would consider him in the second round. That seems like a strange choice given that Cleveland lacks so many pieces, it wouldn't have a decent team until Weeden was at least 30.
Key Free Agents: Oniel Cousins OT (re-signed w/ Browns), Artis Hicks OT (signed w/ Dolphins), Peyton Hillis RB (signed w/ Chiefs), Jordan Norwood WR (re-signed w/ Browns), Alex Smith TE (re-signed w/ Browns), Eric Steinbach G, Steve Vallos OT (signed w/ Eagles),
Defense
Cleveland's defense was surprisingly effective last year, despite lacking big-name players. Joe Haden has developed into one of the best corners in the game and D'Qwell Jackson is perhaps the most underrated defensive player in the league.
Juqua Parker and Frostee Rucker were signed to bolster this defensive line, although rookie Jabaal Sheard was extremely productive, notching 8.5 sacks and forcing 5 fumbles. This teams does need help from the defensive line to get stops in the run game, so getting Parker and Rucker should improve the overall strength of the group.
There are some deficiencies at linebacker outside of Jackson and while this isn't a particularly deep draft at outside linebacker, I wouldn't be surprised to see a middle round pick used to get some depth there.
The Browns can certainly rely on this defense to consistently keep them in games because the Browns faced some of the best offenses in the league last year and stood up to all of them. There is some good, young talent on the defense. If only the offense could say the same.
Key Free Agents: Mike Adams S (signed w/ Broncos), Jayme Mitchell DE, Dimitri Patterson CB (re-signed w/ Browns), Brian Schaefering NT (re-signed w/ Browns), DeAngelo Smith DB (signed w/ Jets),
Draft Targets
Needs: WR,OL,S,RB,QB,OLB
Round 1 (Pick 4): Trent Richardson RB Alabama (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 3)
If the Vikings pick Khalil - the conventional wisdom for most of the offseason - then the Browns will have to pick between the best running back and the best receiver in the draft. If Minnesota, for some reason, passes, as has been reported they might, then suddenly the Browns could be looking at one of the best young sets of offensive tackles we've seen in a long time. Even so, if you look at value, Richardson is now widely considered the third best player in the draft and plays a position of need for the Browns. He's the best running back prospect in the last 10 years not named Adrian Peterson and is a perfect fit in a city like Cleveland as a tough, physical, bulldozing runner. I'm wary of being too sold on Richardson to the Browns here given Mike Holmgren's history with the West Coast offense and the way he de-values running backs. I won't be surprised if Justin Blackmon ends up being the pick here.
Rount 1 (Pick 22 F/ Falcons) Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 18)
While I don't think this will happen, I think it should. There's no way Tannehill belongs in the top 25, much less the top 5 like has been discussed. On potential, you can justify him here at #22 but much higher, I don't see it. It sounds like the Browns have cooled on the idea of Tannehill at 4, which makes the most likely landing spot now #8 to the Dolphins with the owner making a late push for the A&M signall-caller. Tannehill has great athletic talent, but isn't an accurate thrower, nor does he have outstanding arm strength. As a leader, I think he's terrific, but look at the big games he's played in college and you'll see he was a big reason why his team lost those games more frequently than they won them. That's not a trait I want in my franchise quarterback.
Round 2 (Pick 36): Kevin Zeitler G Wisconsin (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 39)
Cleveland already has an all-pro former Badger offensive lineman and regardless of which skill position player you take at #4, the offensive line has to get better. Zeitler is one of the safest picks in the draft, a sure-fire 10 year pro who will always execute. His ceiling isn't as high as some of the other lineman in this draft, but Mike Holmgren likes guys with a history of success and no one has been more successful at his craft than Zeitler. If they go Khalil or Blackmon at the top of the first, a running back like David Wilson or a pass rusher like Andre Branch could be a fit here as well, but if they are going to try and make the Colt McCoy experiment a success, they have to improve the pieces around him, and offensive line is a huge problem right now.
Round 3 (Pick 68): Joe Adams WR Arkansas (Pos. Rank: 9, Overall Rank: 70)
There is some potential in the Cleveland receiving group, but no one special or elite. Adams would continue that trend, but at least has the kind of specialized skill set as a slot receiver to be effective. Greg Little showed some flashes last year and getting a receiver in the slot to work against nickel corners could open up the field for the other players on this team. He's also the kind of player who can get deep off play action with a guy like Richardson in the backfield. Noticeably absent from any of these picks is a quarterback. I do think the Browns take one by this pick, but I'm not convinced there will be good value in it, that's why I don't have it here. My final mock likely will have them taking Brandon Weeden in the second round, but if Brock Osweiler or Kirk Cousins falls to them here, he could be a consideration as well.
Overall
Final Thought
If your looking for a team who could wind up in the Matt Barkley sweepstakes (we'll have to come up with a phrase like "Suck for Luck,"), the Browns are a good bet. Cincinnati will be better, Baltimore and Pittsburgh are Super Bowl contenders and the Browns just aren't very good. Even getting a guy like Richardson and solidifying some of the skill positions won't be enough to compete for the division title. That's even more reason not to get reach for a guy like Brandon Weeden because next year you could have Barkley or Landry Jones, both of whom would be rated above Weeden and both much younger. Cleveland must understand what they are doing and that they need to build through young talent. Maximize these early picks along with the likely ones next year and the Browns may finally have the foundation to bring a playoff team back to Cleveland.
If your looking for a team who could wind up in the Matt Barkley sweepstakes (we'll have to come up with a phrase like "Suck for Luck,"), the Browns are a good bet. Cincinnati will be better, Baltimore and Pittsburgh are Super Bowl contenders and the Browns just aren't very good. Even getting a guy like Richardson and solidifying some of the skill positions won't be enough to compete for the division title. That's even more reason not to get reach for a guy like Brandon Weeden because next year you could have Barkley or Landry Jones, both of whom would be rated above Weeden and both much younger. Cleveland must understand what they are doing and that they need to build through young talent. Maximize these early picks along with the likely ones next year and the Browns may finally have the foundation to bring a playoff team back to Cleveland.
Sunday, April 22, 2012
2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If your team goes from 10-6 to 4-12 and you basically admit your team just isn't that good, you can bet a pink slip is in your future.
Raheem Morris never seemed to understand what being a head coach was about, particularly in the way he handled the media and the messages he sent to his team.
Former Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano will take over and will bring a much more polished background to Tampa Bay. It's hard to know just what kind of differences we'll see on the field, but after an extremely aggressive free agency period, it's safe to say the differences will be noticeable.
Vincent Jackson and Carl Nicks, two of the best in the league at their respective positions, were signed this offseason as the Bucs build around promising quarterback Josh Freeman.
Freeman regressed as a sophomore in the NFL and part of the reason, one would think, was that he had so little to work with around him.
With a slew of high draft choices, the Bucs could turn that 4-12 back into 10-6, particularly with the Saints in the midst of so much turmoil.
Just like with any first-year head coach, this draft will be critical in building a foundation of young talent around Freeman and getting this franchise back to the national spotlight. Back to winning.
Offense
This year, we'll find out if Freeman can be the franchise player the Bucs believed he was when they drafted him. With Nicks solidifying the interior of that line (although the group remains average at best), and Jackson providing Freeman a legitimate #1 receiver, there will be no excuses.
Tampa finished 27th in the league in points scored in 2011 and if you can't score, you can't win. Oddly, Tampa finished in the middle of the pack, 16th, in passing. It was turnovers and miscues in the red zone that prevented the Bucs from finishing drives with points.
Dan Orlovsky and Jamon Meredith were also signed to bring some depth, but if they have to play, particularly Orlovsky, the Bucs will be in trouble.
Getting a runner to pair with LeGarrette Blount in the backfield would take pressure off Freeman. Tampa finished 30th in the league in rushing and will lose two running backs in free agency. It will be hard to pass up if Alabama's terrific running back Trent Richardson is available when the Bucs pick at the top of the first round. A Blount/Richardson backfield would leave a lot of battered and bruised defenses.
This offensive line still has holes and Tampa could target a lineman high in this draft as well as after the June cuts.
Key Free Agents: LeGarrette Blount RB (re-signed w/ Buccaneers), Rudy Carpenter QB,Demar Dotson OT (re-signed w/ Buccaneers), Jeff Faine C, Earnest Graham RB, Josh Johnson QB (signed w/ 49ers), James Lee OT (signed w/ Redskins), Kregg Lumpkin RB (signed w/ Seahawks), Preston Parker WR (re-signed w/ Buccaneers), Michael Spurlock WR (signed w/ Chargers),
Defense
Once known for their defensive dominance, Tampa's defense was last in the league in points allowed and against the rush, and 30th against the pass.
Eric Wright, the best cornerback available in free agency, was signed from Detroit to stop the potent offenses in the NFC South.
Defensive back is still a problem though, with the departures of Tanard Jackson, Sean Jones and Corey Lynch in free agency. Those losses, coupled with Aquib Talib's ongoing off the field issues have Tampa searching for ways to improve their defensive backfield.
Tampa has spent a number of high picks over the last few years on defensive lineman, none of whom have lived up to their vast potential. There is certainly some talent there, but Tampa doesn't generate much pressure, making it even harder for the defensive backfield.
The biggest need on this defense is at linebacker. If the NFL had a D-league, that's where Tampa's group of linebackers belong. There isn't even an average starter in the group and when you have three players on the field, none of whom can make an impact, you are fighting a losing battle.
This isn't a great draft for linebackers, but getting at least one, maybe more, for the Bucs seems like a good bet.
Key Free Agents: Ronde Barber CB (re-signed w/ Buccaneers), Michael Bennett DE (re-signed w/ Buccaneers, Tim Crowder DE, Jovan Haye DE, Geno Hayes OLB, Tanard Jackson S (signed w/ Redskins), Sean Jones SS, Corey Lynch FS, Elbert Mack DB, Nick Reed DE
Draft Targets
Round 2 (Pick 37): Andre Branch DE Clemson (Pos. Rank: 6, Overall Rank: 34)
One of the reasons Clairborne makes more sense in Round 1 is because at this pick, the Bucs could probably get David Wilson or Lamar Miller to pair with Blount. Getting Claiborne and Wilson would me a much better pair than getting Richardson and Brandon Boykin for example. If Tampa doesn't go with a running back, I like a versatile defender like Andre Branch. He played end in college at Clemson, but has been seen by teams as a 3-4 outside linebacker because of his size at just 260 pounds. He's not an ideal fit at end, but could be used as a rush linebacker similar to the way Denver uses Von Miller. Branch is an elite pass rusher and would be a huge asset for this Bucs defense.
Round 3 (Pick 68): Kelechi Osemele OL Iowa State (Pos. Rank: 5, Overall Rank: 68)
Overall
I think it would be hard for Buccaneers fans to get too excited about this draft , despite getting three players in the top 70. Richardson, who I think would be the pick if Greg Schiano got to make the pick alone, would be the more popular choice, but Claiborne makes more sense. Talib may not be long for this world on the Bucs and Ronde Barber is probably a year or two at most from retiring. Branch and Osemele are need picks and give the Bucs great overall value (3+) for this draft. There will be plenty of quality players available to Tampa. Being judicious about where they take risks will be key to determining how successful this draft will be.
Raheem Morris never seemed to understand what being a head coach was about, particularly in the way he handled the media and the messages he sent to his team.
Former Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano will take over and will bring a much more polished background to Tampa Bay. It's hard to know just what kind of differences we'll see on the field, but after an extremely aggressive free agency period, it's safe to say the differences will be noticeable.
Vincent Jackson and Carl Nicks, two of the best in the league at their respective positions, were signed this offseason as the Bucs build around promising quarterback Josh Freeman.
Freeman regressed as a sophomore in the NFL and part of the reason, one would think, was that he had so little to work with around him.
With a slew of high draft choices, the Bucs could turn that 4-12 back into 10-6, particularly with the Saints in the midst of so much turmoil.
Just like with any first-year head coach, this draft will be critical in building a foundation of young talent around Freeman and getting this franchise back to the national spotlight. Back to winning.
Offense
This year, we'll find out if Freeman can be the franchise player the Bucs believed he was when they drafted him. With Nicks solidifying the interior of that line (although the group remains average at best), and Jackson providing Freeman a legitimate #1 receiver, there will be no excuses.
Tampa finished 27th in the league in points scored in 2011 and if you can't score, you can't win. Oddly, Tampa finished in the middle of the pack, 16th, in passing. It was turnovers and miscues in the red zone that prevented the Bucs from finishing drives with points.
Dan Orlovsky and Jamon Meredith were also signed to bring some depth, but if they have to play, particularly Orlovsky, the Bucs will be in trouble.
Getting a runner to pair with LeGarrette Blount in the backfield would take pressure off Freeman. Tampa finished 30th in the league in rushing and will lose two running backs in free agency. It will be hard to pass up if Alabama's terrific running back Trent Richardson is available when the Bucs pick at the top of the first round. A Blount/Richardson backfield would leave a lot of battered and bruised defenses.
This offensive line still has holes and Tampa could target a lineman high in this draft as well as after the June cuts.
Key Free Agents: LeGarrette Blount RB (re-signed w/ Buccaneers), Rudy Carpenter QB,Demar Dotson OT (re-signed w/ Buccaneers), Jeff Faine C, Earnest Graham RB, Josh Johnson QB (signed w/ 49ers), James Lee OT (signed w/ Redskins), Kregg Lumpkin RB (signed w/ Seahawks), Preston Parker WR (re-signed w/ Buccaneers), Michael Spurlock WR (signed w/ Chargers),
Defense
Once known for their defensive dominance, Tampa's defense was last in the league in points allowed and against the rush, and 30th against the pass.
Eric Wright, the best cornerback available in free agency, was signed from Detroit to stop the potent offenses in the NFC South.
Defensive back is still a problem though, with the departures of Tanard Jackson, Sean Jones and Corey Lynch in free agency. Those losses, coupled with Aquib Talib's ongoing off the field issues have Tampa searching for ways to improve their defensive backfield.
Tampa has spent a number of high picks over the last few years on defensive lineman, none of whom have lived up to their vast potential. There is certainly some talent there, but Tampa doesn't generate much pressure, making it even harder for the defensive backfield.
The biggest need on this defense is at linebacker. If the NFL had a D-league, that's where Tampa's group of linebackers belong. There isn't even an average starter in the group and when you have three players on the field, none of whom can make an impact, you are fighting a losing battle.
This isn't a great draft for linebackers, but getting at least one, maybe more, for the Bucs seems like a good bet.
Key Free Agents: Ronde Barber CB (re-signed w/ Buccaneers), Michael Bennett DE (re-signed w/ Buccaneers, Tim Crowder DE, Jovan Haye DE, Geno Hayes OLB, Tanard Jackson S (signed w/ Redskins), Sean Jones SS, Corey Lynch FS, Elbert Mack DB, Nick Reed DE
Draft Targets
Needs: LB,DB,OL,TE,RB,WR
Round 1 (Pick 5): Morris Claiborne CB LSU (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 5)
Tampa is in an unfortunate position here because the two most likely players available don't play a position of the desperate need. Morris Claiborne and Trent Richardson could both be available at #5 and if they are, Tampa will have a difficult decision to make. Clairborne is the best cover corner in the draft in a league where you have to have three or four legitimate starting-caliber corners. On the other hand, Richardson is the best running back prospect since Adrian Peterson and franchise running backs are few and far between in this league. In a division with Cam Newton, Drew Brees and Matt Ryan, Claiborne is the greater need pick. I'm not as high on Claiborne as some (he's not Champ Baily or Darrelle Revis, so #5 seems too high), but he's extremely fluid in coverage and has outstanding closing speed.
Round 2 (Pick 37): Andre Branch DE Clemson (Pos. Rank: 6, Overall Rank: 34)
One of the reasons Clairborne makes more sense in Round 1 is because at this pick, the Bucs could probably get David Wilson or Lamar Miller to pair with Blount. Getting Claiborne and Wilson would me a much better pair than getting Richardson and Brandon Boykin for example. If Tampa doesn't go with a running back, I like a versatile defender like Andre Branch. He played end in college at Clemson, but has been seen by teams as a 3-4 outside linebacker because of his size at just 260 pounds. He's not an ideal fit at end, but could be used as a rush linebacker similar to the way Denver uses Von Miller. Branch is an elite pass rusher and would be a huge asset for this Bucs defense.
Round 3 (Pick 68): Kelechi Osemele OL Iowa State (Pos. Rank: 5, Overall Rank: 68)
Another versatile lineman for Tampa. Osemeli is seen as a tackle by some and a guard by others, mostly because the former Iowa State Cyclone is a mountain of a man at 6-5 347. Scouts question whether he has the lateral quickness to play tackle in the NFL. He does have enough quickness to stay with nimble inside rushers, but wouldn't be the kind of guard you'd ask to pull due to his heavy feet. Could be an NFL right tackle in a pinch, but is a better fit at guard. Either way, the Bucs need the kind of physical presence Osemele would bring and he'd be a major upgrade in the run game.
Overall
I think it would be hard for Buccaneers fans to get too excited about this draft , despite getting three players in the top 70. Richardson, who I think would be the pick if Greg Schiano got to make the pick alone, would be the more popular choice, but Claiborne makes more sense. Talib may not be long for this world on the Bucs and Ronde Barber is probably a year or two at most from retiring. Branch and Osemele are need picks and give the Bucs great overall value (3+) for this draft. There will be plenty of quality players available to Tampa. Being judicious about where they take risks will be key to determining how successful this draft will be.
Final Thought
If you think the Bucs can't go 10-6 again this year, remind yourself they did just two years ago with a first-year starter at quarterback. I expect Freeman to bounce back from his lackluster season last year and really flourish the Vincent Jackson in the offense. This team is better offensively and defensively from the team last year. Unfortunately, so will the Panthers and the Falcons, not to mention the Saints will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. The schedule is slightly more favorable this year with the NFC East and AFC West on the schedule, but eight wins seems reasonable and nine or 10 isn't out of the question. The biggest reason for Tampa's slide last year was they lacked toughness. That's Greg Schiano's specialty and I expect him to have a positive impact on the mindset of this team.
If you think the Bucs can't go 10-6 again this year, remind yourself they did just two years ago with a first-year starter at quarterback. I expect Freeman to bounce back from his lackluster season last year and really flourish the Vincent Jackson in the offense. This team is better offensively and defensively from the team last year. Unfortunately, so will the Panthers and the Falcons, not to mention the Saints will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. The schedule is slightly more favorable this year with the NFC East and AFC West on the schedule, but eight wins seems reasonable and nine or 10 isn't out of the question. The biggest reason for Tampa's slide last year was they lacked toughness. That's Greg Schiano's specialty and I expect him to have a positive impact on the mindset of this team.
Saturday, April 21, 2012
2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Washington Redskins
The Washington Redskins are at it again. Every year, it seems, they try to make a big splash, spend millions on free agents and yet only rarely make the playoffs.
For years now, the only thing Washington has won is the offseason.
It certainly doesn't help playing in a division with perennial power teams. In the 1990's, there was the Cowboys dynasty. In the early 2000's, Philadelphia was making a deep run every year, and now the Giants have won two Super Bowl titles in the last five seasons.
But Washington, instead of rebuilding through the draft and setting a solid foundation, has tried quick fixes to remain competitive.
Now, finally, the Redskins have made an offseason splash that may also serve to set that foundation.
They gave up a lot to get him, but trading up with the Rams to draft Robert Griffin III may be a seminal moment in this franchise's history.
RG3 is one of the most unique talents we've ever seen come out of college and has a chance to be special in the NFL.
Owner Daniel Snyder made a few moves to bolster the receiving core and the defensive backfield, eschewing the big names, while aiming for the kind of role players you need to compete every week in the league.
This somewhat new approach may not pay off this season, but could pay long-term dividends for the Redskins.
Offense
Despite what Donovan McNabb says (try to stifle your laughter), Griffin III will be an ideal fit for this offense. Roy Helu appears to be a solid running back and with a new group of receivers, RG3 will use play action and roll-outs to put defenses on their heels.
Just how much this offense will be tailored to fit the Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, we'll find out once practice begins. I doubt we'll see much speed option, but you can expect some designed runs for Griffin as well as frequent use of boot options and read plays.
Josh Morgan and Pierre Garcon were signed to bring some consistency to this skill group. Santana Moss is getting older, but can still be explosive at times. Getting a deeper group of receivers should take the pressure of him and open up more lanes for him to make big plays down the field.
There are some concerns with this offensive line group although Trent Williams has been ad advertised when he's been healthy. Getting some protection for RG3 should be a perennial focus from now on.
Adding a pass-catching tight end would also give Griffin III a security blanket and a red zone threat. There is a solid group of tight ends in this class, and the Redskins, despite not having a second round pick, could still pick one up.
Key Free Agents: David Anderson WR, Rex Grossman QB (re-signed w/ Redskins), Tim Hightower RB, Malcolm Kelly WR, Kory Lichtensteiger G (re-signed w/ Redskins), Sean Locklear OT, Will Montgomery C (re-signed w/ Redskins), Mike Sellers TE, Donte' Stallworth WR (signed w/ Patriots), Ryan Torain RB
Defense
While Snyder didn't break the bank on one of the big fish in free agency, he did stockpile defensive backs after losing both his starting safeties in free agency along with two other role players.
Washington will bring in Madieu Williams, Brandon Meriweather and Tanard Jackson, all who have been impact safeties at various times in their respective careers.
Out of those three, you'd hope Washington could find two who play well enough to emerge as starters. Jackson is the biggest playmaker in coverage of the three, but was the worst defensive back in football last year making tackles according to Pro Football Focus.
Leigh Torrence and Cedric Griffin (assuming he still has working ligaments in his knees), should provide some depth behind DeAngelo Hall at corner for a defense that finished 12th last year against the pass.
The Redskins are in good shape when it comes to pass rush with Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan, but the defensive interior is weak to say the least and getting some beef in the middle should help secure a defense that game up more than 117 yards per game on the ground last year.
Key Free Agents: O.J. Atogwe S, Phillip Buchanon DB, Adam Carriker DE (re-signed w/ Redskins), London Fletcher ILB (re-signed w/ Redskins), Keyaron Fox LB, Kedric Golston (re-signed w/ Redskins), Chris Horton DB (signed w/ Giants), LaRon Landry SS (signed w/ Jets), Rocky McIntosh ILB, Byron Westbrook DB
Draft Targets
Round 3 (Pick 69): Alameda Ta'amu NT Washington (Pos. Rank: 8, Overall Rank: 69)
Overall
The value of this draft is dead on (0), but you have to remember what the Rams gave up to get Robert Griffin III. It seems like the Redskins might have given up one first round pick too many if you go by the charting, but if you look at next year's draft would RG3 have been rated about Matt Barkley? Maybe, but Barkley is the presumptive #1 overall pick next year, not to mention Griffin III has a higher ceiling. He certainly ranks about where Landry Jones would have been, which means if you were going to pick a year to get a quarterback, this is it. Either Ta'amu or Orson Charles could be impact rookies and either would be a welcome upgrade to what the Redskins have at the position already.
For years now, the only thing Washington has won is the offseason.
It certainly doesn't help playing in a division with perennial power teams. In the 1990's, there was the Cowboys dynasty. In the early 2000's, Philadelphia was making a deep run every year, and now the Giants have won two Super Bowl titles in the last five seasons.
But Washington, instead of rebuilding through the draft and setting a solid foundation, has tried quick fixes to remain competitive.
Now, finally, the Redskins have made an offseason splash that may also serve to set that foundation.
They gave up a lot to get him, but trading up with the Rams to draft Robert Griffin III may be a seminal moment in this franchise's history.
RG3 is one of the most unique talents we've ever seen come out of college and has a chance to be special in the NFL.
Owner Daniel Snyder made a few moves to bolster the receiving core and the defensive backfield, eschewing the big names, while aiming for the kind of role players you need to compete every week in the league.
This somewhat new approach may not pay off this season, but could pay long-term dividends for the Redskins.
Offense
Despite what Donovan McNabb says (try to stifle your laughter), Griffin III will be an ideal fit for this offense. Roy Helu appears to be a solid running back and with a new group of receivers, RG3 will use play action and roll-outs to put defenses on their heels.
Just how much this offense will be tailored to fit the Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, we'll find out once practice begins. I doubt we'll see much speed option, but you can expect some designed runs for Griffin as well as frequent use of boot options and read plays.
Josh Morgan and Pierre Garcon were signed to bring some consistency to this skill group. Santana Moss is getting older, but can still be explosive at times. Getting a deeper group of receivers should take the pressure of him and open up more lanes for him to make big plays down the field.
There are some concerns with this offensive line group although Trent Williams has been ad advertised when he's been healthy. Getting some protection for RG3 should be a perennial focus from now on.
Adding a pass-catching tight end would also give Griffin III a security blanket and a red zone threat. There is a solid group of tight ends in this class, and the Redskins, despite not having a second round pick, could still pick one up.
Key Free Agents: David Anderson WR, Rex Grossman QB (re-signed w/ Redskins), Tim Hightower RB, Malcolm Kelly WR, Kory Lichtensteiger G (re-signed w/ Redskins), Sean Locklear OT, Will Montgomery C (re-signed w/ Redskins), Mike Sellers TE, Donte' Stallworth WR (signed w/ Patriots), Ryan Torain RB
Defense
While Snyder didn't break the bank on one of the big fish in free agency, he did stockpile defensive backs after losing both his starting safeties in free agency along with two other role players.
Washington will bring in Madieu Williams, Brandon Meriweather and Tanard Jackson, all who have been impact safeties at various times in their respective careers.
Out of those three, you'd hope Washington could find two who play well enough to emerge as starters. Jackson is the biggest playmaker in coverage of the three, but was the worst defensive back in football last year making tackles according to Pro Football Focus.
Leigh Torrence and Cedric Griffin (assuming he still has working ligaments in his knees), should provide some depth behind DeAngelo Hall at corner for a defense that finished 12th last year against the pass.
The Redskins are in good shape when it comes to pass rush with Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan, but the defensive interior is weak to say the least and getting some beef in the middle should help secure a defense that game up more than 117 yards per game on the ground last year.
Key Free Agents: O.J. Atogwe S, Phillip Buchanon DB, Adam Carriker DE (re-signed w/ Redskins), London Fletcher ILB (re-signed w/ Redskins), Keyaron Fox LB, Kedric Golston (re-signed w/ Redskins), Chris Horton DB (signed w/ Giants), LaRon Landry SS (signed w/ Jets), Rocky McIntosh ILB, Byron Westbrook DB
Draft Targets
Needs: QB,DL,OL,TE,DB
Round 1 (Pick 2 F/ Rams): Robert Griffin III QB Baylor (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 2)
We know this is the pick and what the Redskins gave up to make it. We also know that Griffin III is the most athletic quarterback to come into the league since Mike Vick, but doesn't have the same run-first mentality. In some ways, RG3 is the quarterback we always thought Vick should be, using his feet to keep defenses honest and creating problems when the play breaks down. This is a make or break moment for the Redskins. If Griffin III is the player the 'Skins think he is, it was well-worth the price they paid and ironically, he has a much higher ceiling than Sam Bradford, who happens to play on the team Washington traded with to get this pick.
Round 2 (Pick 39): Traded to Rams for #2 pick
Round 2 (Pick 39): Traded to Rams for #2 pick
Round 3 (Pick 69): Alameda Ta'amu NT Washington (Pos. Rank: 8, Overall Rank: 69)
Washington did re-sign Adam Carriker, but there are currently only three defensive tackles on this roster. Ta'amu has dominant physical skills, was unblockable at the Senior Bowl, but much like fellow nose tackle Dontari Poe, the film doesn't show him to be a consistent force. Luckily, he doesn't have the baggage that Albert Haynesworth had and as such, should be much more coachable at the next level. This probably isn't who I'll have have in my final mock, only because I think Daniel Snyder will want to get more weapons for RG3. That's why to me, Orson Charles seems more likely even if Ta'amu makes more sense.
Overall
Final Thought
Even if Robet Griffin III can step in and be as good as Cam Newton as a rookie, the Redskins will be extremely lucky to win 8 games next year. In a division where the Giants, Eagles and Cowboys all appear to be stronger than last year (with the possible exception of the Giants), the Redskins will have an uphill battle trying to make strides. To me, you can't judge the Redskins based on 2012 however, because the move to get RG3 signals a shift to make long-term improvements. Six or seven wins would be outstanding, particularly given that the 'Skins have the NFC South and the AFC North teams on their schedule. Four or five wins with RG3 at quarterback seems much more likely, landing the 'Skins back in the top 10 of next year's draft. I know it won't make the fans happy, at least during the season, but that could actually be a good thing and would give Washington the ability to continue this rebuilding project through the draft, adding young talent around their franchise quarterback.
Even if Robet Griffin III can step in and be as good as Cam Newton as a rookie, the Redskins will be extremely lucky to win 8 games next year. In a division where the Giants, Eagles and Cowboys all appear to be stronger than last year (with the possible exception of the Giants), the Redskins will have an uphill battle trying to make strides. To me, you can't judge the Redskins based on 2012 however, because the move to get RG3 signals a shift to make long-term improvements. Six or seven wins would be outstanding, particularly given that the 'Skins have the NFC South and the AFC North teams on their schedule. Four or five wins with RG3 at quarterback seems much more likely, landing the 'Skins back in the top 10 of next year's draft. I know it won't make the fans happy, at least during the season, but that could actually be a good thing and would give Washington the ability to continue this rebuilding project through the draft, adding young talent around their franchise quarterback.
Thursday, April 19, 2012
2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Miami Dolphins
It almost seems irrelevant to talk about the 2012 Miami Dolphins through the lens of last year's team because the two will hardly resemble one another.
Tony Sparano's ground and pound ideals will be replaced with a more open passing offense under former Packers coach Joe Philbin.
The old 3-4 defense will be replaced with the more traditional 4-3 system under long-time former defensive backs coach Kevin Coyle.
Changing defenses is considerably more surprising considering the Dolphins' strength last year was its physical defense.
After starting the year 0-7, the Dolphins finished 6-3, thanks mostly to the superior play of that defense.
That being said, this is an offensively-challenged team and although Matt Moore was decent last year, David Garrard was signed to compete for the job and whispers have grown to shouts about the Dolphins drafting Ryan Tannehill.
You'd expect the Dolphins to draft a quarterback early, but they'll have to decide what kind of price they're willing to pay in order to get him.
Despite having a top 10 defense last year, there are some concerns in the secondary and finding a pass rusher opposite Cameron Wake, particularly in this new defense will be paramount.
Offense
This offensive line could use an overhaul. Outside of Jake Long, there isn't a lot to work with here and new offensive coordinator Mike Sherman, a former offensive line coach, knows the value of winning up front.
Artis Hicks, signed from the Browns, is a veteran offensive lineman, but is long in the tooth and isn't a long-term solution there.
Getting an offensive lineman or two in the draft will be a top priority.
Receiver is another major concern with the Dolphins trading Brandon Marshall to the Bears without much left beyond him. Legedu Naanee was signed to pick up some of the slack, but much like Hicks, Naanee isn't going to write any headlines with his play.
Adding another wide receiver could help whomever will be under center for the Dolphins.
The quarterback situation is the hardest to peg. Ryan Tannehill didn't even play quarterback for his whole time under Mike Sherman and whether or not Sherman can convince Philbin or Dolphin management that Tannehill is the guy remains to be seen.
If Tannehill makes it to the eighth pick, he'll be hard to pass, but there are enough holes on this team and enough quality quarterbacks in this draft to wait until the second or third round to get their young quarterback.
I have a feeling Philbin, having seen the success of Ted Thompson, will push to wait on a quarterback until the value is right. Whether or not he wins out, we'll find out on draft day.
Key Free Agents: Vernon Carey G, Marc Colombo OT, Chad Henne (signed w/ Jaguars), J.P. Losman QB, Lydon Murtha OT (re-signed w/ Dolphins), Chad Pennington QB, Steve Slaton RB (re-signed w/ Dolphins)
Defense
Part of the legacy Sparano will leave in Miami is the physicality his team played with on both sides of the ball. There wasn't a tremendous talent pool on this front, but they finished 3rd in the league against the run.
When you consider Miami finished 25th in the league against the pass, but still managed to wind up 6th in points, this group played adversity defense on a high level.
Jamaal Westerman was signed from the Jets, and Gary Guyton from the Patriots to bolster this linebacker group.
Guyton becomes the presumptive starter in the middle with Westerman fighting for an outside linebacker spot opposite Carlos Dansby.
To boost the secondary, Richard Marshall was signed from the Cardinals, as was Tyrell Johnson from the Vikings. Both could be starters for this team.
There are some young players on the defensive line who do have some potential. They don't have a true 4-3 end on the team, but Wake is an elite-level pass rusher and should be effective no matter where they line him up.
Getting another end and creating more pressure will be an important step to compete in the AFC East.
Key Free Agents: Ikaika Alama-Francis LB, Will Allen FS (signed w/ Patriots), Ryan Baker DE (signed w/ Dolphins), Yeremiah Bell S, Kendall Langford DE (signed w/ Rams), Phillip Merling DT (re-signed w/ Dolphins), Igor Olshansky DT, Paul Soliai NT ( re-signed w/ Dolphins),
Draft Targets
Tony Sparano's ground and pound ideals will be replaced with a more open passing offense under former Packers coach Joe Philbin.
The old 3-4 defense will be replaced with the more traditional 4-3 system under long-time former defensive backs coach Kevin Coyle.
Changing defenses is considerably more surprising considering the Dolphins' strength last year was its physical defense.
After starting the year 0-7, the Dolphins finished 6-3, thanks mostly to the superior play of that defense.
That being said, this is an offensively-challenged team and although Matt Moore was decent last year, David Garrard was signed to compete for the job and whispers have grown to shouts about the Dolphins drafting Ryan Tannehill.
You'd expect the Dolphins to draft a quarterback early, but they'll have to decide what kind of price they're willing to pay in order to get him.
Despite having a top 10 defense last year, there are some concerns in the secondary and finding a pass rusher opposite Cameron Wake, particularly in this new defense will be paramount.
Offense
This offensive line could use an overhaul. Outside of Jake Long, there isn't a lot to work with here and new offensive coordinator Mike Sherman, a former offensive line coach, knows the value of winning up front.
Artis Hicks, signed from the Browns, is a veteran offensive lineman, but is long in the tooth and isn't a long-term solution there.
Getting an offensive lineman or two in the draft will be a top priority.
Receiver is another major concern with the Dolphins trading Brandon Marshall to the Bears without much left beyond him. Legedu Naanee was signed to pick up some of the slack, but much like Hicks, Naanee isn't going to write any headlines with his play.
Adding another wide receiver could help whomever will be under center for the Dolphins.
The quarterback situation is the hardest to peg. Ryan Tannehill didn't even play quarterback for his whole time under Mike Sherman and whether or not Sherman can convince Philbin or Dolphin management that Tannehill is the guy remains to be seen.
If Tannehill makes it to the eighth pick, he'll be hard to pass, but there are enough holes on this team and enough quality quarterbacks in this draft to wait until the second or third round to get their young quarterback.
I have a feeling Philbin, having seen the success of Ted Thompson, will push to wait on a quarterback until the value is right. Whether or not he wins out, we'll find out on draft day.
Key Free Agents: Vernon Carey G, Marc Colombo OT, Chad Henne (signed w/ Jaguars), J.P. Losman QB, Lydon Murtha OT (re-signed w/ Dolphins), Chad Pennington QB, Steve Slaton RB (re-signed w/ Dolphins)
Defense
Part of the legacy Sparano will leave in Miami is the physicality his team played with on both sides of the ball. There wasn't a tremendous talent pool on this front, but they finished 3rd in the league against the run.
When you consider Miami finished 25th in the league against the pass, but still managed to wind up 6th in points, this group played adversity defense on a high level.
Jamaal Westerman was signed from the Jets, and Gary Guyton from the Patriots to bolster this linebacker group.
Guyton becomes the presumptive starter in the middle with Westerman fighting for an outside linebacker spot opposite Carlos Dansby.
To boost the secondary, Richard Marshall was signed from the Cardinals, as was Tyrell Johnson from the Vikings. Both could be starters for this team.
There are some young players on the defensive line who do have some potential. They don't have a true 4-3 end on the team, but Wake is an elite-level pass rusher and should be effective no matter where they line him up.
Getting another end and creating more pressure will be an important step to compete in the AFC East.
Key Free Agents: Ikaika Alama-Francis LB, Will Allen FS (signed w/ Patriots), Ryan Baker DE (signed w/ Dolphins), Yeremiah Bell S, Kendall Langford DE (signed w/ Rams), Phillip Merling DT (re-signed w/ Dolphins), Igor Olshansky DT, Paul Soliai NT ( re-signed w/ Dolphins),
Draft Targets
Needs: OL,QB,WR,LB,TE,S
Round 1 (Pick 8): David DeCastro G Stanford (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 9)
I have a feeling that a team other than Miami will trade up for Tannehill. Cleveland could certainly take him at #4. Either way, DeCastro is the second-best lineman in this draft and is the kind of guy who could be a 10 year starter on this team along side Jake Long. He's extremely smart (the guy went to Stanford). DeCastro is equally adept in the run and passing game and uses his excellent blend of power and quickness to wall defenders. He can improve his technique using his hands, but he's not going to get out-worked or out-hustled in the NFL and he has a chance to be a Pro Bowl guard for the Dolphins.
Round 2 (Pick 42): Rueben Randle WR LSU (Pos. Rank: 6, Overall Rank: 43)
Round 2 (Pick 42): Rueben Randle WR LSU (Pos. Rank: 6, Overall Rank: 43)
If Kirk Cousins is rated ahead of Brandon Weedon on Miami's board, I can see him being the pick here. If I'm the Dolphins, I'd much rather get a top-tier talent in the first round than reach for a second round talent (Tannehill), when I can get a second round talent (and this may shock you) in the second round. If Cousins isn't the pick, expect a receiver. Randle has the big body the departed Marshall did, but is much more athletic and ran sub 4.4 at his pro day. It's tough to know just how good Randle is because he's never played with a quality quarterback, nor has he played in a pro style passing offense. The physical talents are there though and he has a chance to be a big-time sleeper in this draft.
Round 3 (Pick 72): Brock Osweiler QB Arizona State (Pos. Rank: 6, Overall Rank: 64)
Round 3 (Pick 72): Brock Osweiler QB Arizona State (Pos. Rank: 6, Overall Rank: 64)
To me, there isn't much difference between Osweiler and Tannehill in terms of having the potential to be good without being a finished product. If you think about it, Tannehill would have been ranked behind Matt Barkley and Landry Jones had those two declared. Tannehill is second-round prospect. Osweiler has a better natural feel for the position and has better accuracy. His ability to read defenses is a work in progress and he will stare down his reads occasionally. He didn't play with great playmakers around him at Arizona State, especially compared to Tannehill and with time to learn, Osweiler has a high ceiling with his big frame and underrated athletic talents.
Round 3 (Pick 73 F/ Bears): Bruce Irvin OLB West Virginia (Pos. Rank: 5, Overall Rank: 71)
With Wake coming off one edge, having Irvin coming off the other would create serious match-up problems for opposing offenses.Irvin would be undersized playing end in the 4-3 and would have to move to linebacker, but has the speed and quickness to play well in space. Whether or not he has the instincts will only be known if and when he has the chance to play there. The Dolphins could use him much like Von Miller in Denver. In passing situations, Irvin could play end and then play linebacker on first or second down. Irvin would give them tremendous versatility and would allow them to be creative with personnel, even potentially keeping some of the 3-4 looks that were so good for this defense last year.
Overall
I hope, for the Dolphins sake, they wait on finding a quarterback until the value makes more sense. There are two Day 1 starters in this draft, the potential quarterback of the future, and a future starter at linebacker. Randle, Osweiler and Irvin are all projects of sorts, but have some of the highest ceilings of any player at their respective positions in the 2012 class. A draft like this would give new coach Joe Philbin a slew of young, talented players to develop. If Philbin is anything like his former boss, Mike McCarthy, Philbin will want to get his guy and work with him. Whether or not it's Osweiler, we won't know until next week, but Miami certainly will get someone to develop at that position. Overall
Final Thought
Even if the Dolphins go with a quarterback early, David Garrard or Matt Moore will, in all likelihood, be the opening day starter. Whether or not they finish the season may rest with how well the Dolphins play. Can they keep the momentum from last year's finish moving forward? With so many changes in personnel and with the coaching staff, it's hard to imagine they can. Just like it is with any new coach, the first draft is always the most important because it lays the foundation for this team moving forward. I can't see them mortgaging their future for a guy like Tannehill, but I've been wrong before.
Even if the Dolphins go with a quarterback early, David Garrard or Matt Moore will, in all likelihood, be the opening day starter. Whether or not they finish the season may rest with how well the Dolphins play. Can they keep the momentum from last year's finish moving forward? With so many changes in personnel and with the coaching staff, it's hard to imagine they can. Just like it is with any new coach, the first draft is always the most important because it lays the foundation for this team moving forward. I can't see them mortgaging their future for a guy like Tannehill, but I've been wrong before.
Wednesday, April 18, 2012
2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Carolina Panthers
The 2011 Carolina Panthers were, to a degree, the Green Bay Packers Lite. Carolina finished in the top 10 in every major statistical offensive category, but finished no better than 25th in any major defensive category.
Count me as one of the people who thought Cam wouldn't be ready for the NFL as a rookie starter. If nothing else, he proved that a small sample size shouldn't be judged too harshly either positively or negatively.
Newton has the look of a transcendent player, the kind of player you might make in Madden, but never would expect to see in real life.
The big question for Carolina is whether or not Newton can win in the NFL. In some ways, he's had the anti-Vince Young season.
For VY, it wasn't pretty, but the guy won seemingly every week. Cam has put up gaudy stats for a bad team, but the Panthers were in just about every game they played and frankly, most of the losses weren't his fault.
This defense was atrocious and some of the key contributors for this team, including Newton and head coach Ron Rivera, are still relatively green.
Even in free agency, of the five players Carolina signed, they had just 10 total starts between them last season and eight of them belonged to Mike Pollak, who played guard for the Colts.
Truly, one of the only major differences between the 2011 Panthers and the 2010 Panthers was Cam Newton, and it was good for a four win increase; and while the NFC South is one of the toughest conferences in football, if Cam get better and the defense gets better, the Panthers could be in the mix in 2012.
Offense
Carolina changed their franchise in the draft last year. Obviously, that's much easier to do with the #1 overall pick and a guy like Cam Newton to take with that pick.
The Panthers are back inside the top 10, and could wind up with one of the elite talents if a team like Miami trades up to draft Ryan Tannehill. Unfortunately, there are 5 top-tier guys and none of those are likely to fall.
Even so, there are plenty of holes on this team to fill and getting an interior lineman or skill player on the edge could really benefit Cam and this offense.
The aforementioned Pollak was signed to mitigate the losses of Mackenzy Bernadeau and Travelle Wharton, although neither are even average players.
Signed Mike Tolbert from San Diego gives the Panthers a backfield, with Newton, that will give defensive players nightmares. Those are two of the hardest guys in the league to bring down on first contact.
Carolina has been working to extend Steve Smith, but outside of him and Greg Olsen, there is a serious drop-off in talent. Nabbing a receiver in the first few rounds of the draft and potentially adding one in the later stages of free agency seems like a must for this team.
Key Free Agents: Derek Anderson QB (re-signed w/ Panthers), Mackenzy Bernadeau G (signed w/ Coyboys), Omar Gaither OLB, Cletis Gordon, Legedu Naanee WR (signed w/ Dolphins), Geoff Schwartz G (signed w/ Vikings), Jeremy Shockey TE, Travelle Wharton G (signed w/ Bengals)
Defense
If Carolina can find any improvement on this side of the ball, the Panthers could start to really make strides. Signing Reggie Smith and Haruki Nakamura will add depth to this secondary, but neither will have a major impact on the defense.
Kenny Onatolu, signed from the Vikings, is probably more of a special teams and depth player.
That leaves big holes at essentially every level of this defense. Chris Gamble is a good corner, but outside of him, this is an extremely limited group.
The defensive line desperately needs some impact players. Charles Johnson is the only player who would even start on most other teams and while he's an excellent pass rusher, he desperately needs help.
Carolina could draft a player at any defensive position and it would make sense. Adding some beef inside by getting a tackle who can rush the passer, but also anchor inside, would relieve a lot of stress on Johnson and this limited secondary.
Getting a corner with some speed and even some return ability would really be a boost to both this defense and special teams. You can never have too many corners in a division with Drew Brees and Matt Ryan.
Key Free Agents: Antwan Applewhite DE (re-signed w/ Panthers), Dan Connor ILB (signed w/ Cowboys), DeMario Pressley DT, Jordan Senn OLB (re-signed w/ Panthers)
Draft Targets
Overall
With just two picks in the first 100, the Panthers will be under even more pressure to get this draft right. A few missteps here and it could set Cam Newton back a year of his development. Luckily, both picks are in the top 50 and it seems like every year, a few first round talents slip to the top the second round where needy franchises gladly scoop them up. Boykin is a tier below the fringe first round groups, but some red flags could drop first round talents like Alshon Jeffery (who would be an ideal fit for this team, with ties to the area) and Janoris Jenkins right into the lap of the Panthers. Even if that doesn't happen, a player like Boykin has the ball skills and big-play ability to warrant a high pick, not to mention Fletcher Cox has Pro Bowl talent along the interior. The value (0) isn't terrific, but with just two players, both potentially starters, this would be an excellent draft for the Panthers.
Count me as one of the people who thought Cam wouldn't be ready for the NFL as a rookie starter. If nothing else, he proved that a small sample size shouldn't be judged too harshly either positively or negatively.
Newton has the look of a transcendent player, the kind of player you might make in Madden, but never would expect to see in real life.
The big question for Carolina is whether or not Newton can win in the NFL. In some ways, he's had the anti-Vince Young season.
For VY, it wasn't pretty, but the guy won seemingly every week. Cam has put up gaudy stats for a bad team, but the Panthers were in just about every game they played and frankly, most of the losses weren't his fault.
This defense was atrocious and some of the key contributors for this team, including Newton and head coach Ron Rivera, are still relatively green.
Even in free agency, of the five players Carolina signed, they had just 10 total starts between them last season and eight of them belonged to Mike Pollak, who played guard for the Colts.
Truly, one of the only major differences between the 2011 Panthers and the 2010 Panthers was Cam Newton, and it was good for a four win increase; and while the NFC South is one of the toughest conferences in football, if Cam get better and the defense gets better, the Panthers could be in the mix in 2012.
Offense
Carolina changed their franchise in the draft last year. Obviously, that's much easier to do with the #1 overall pick and a guy like Cam Newton to take with that pick.
The Panthers are back inside the top 10, and could wind up with one of the elite talents if a team like Miami trades up to draft Ryan Tannehill. Unfortunately, there are 5 top-tier guys and none of those are likely to fall.
Even so, there are plenty of holes on this team to fill and getting an interior lineman or skill player on the edge could really benefit Cam and this offense.
The aforementioned Pollak was signed to mitigate the losses of Mackenzy Bernadeau and Travelle Wharton, although neither are even average players.
Signed Mike Tolbert from San Diego gives the Panthers a backfield, with Newton, that will give defensive players nightmares. Those are two of the hardest guys in the league to bring down on first contact.
Carolina has been working to extend Steve Smith, but outside of him and Greg Olsen, there is a serious drop-off in talent. Nabbing a receiver in the first few rounds of the draft and potentially adding one in the later stages of free agency seems like a must for this team.
Key Free Agents: Derek Anderson QB (re-signed w/ Panthers), Mackenzy Bernadeau G (signed w/ Coyboys), Omar Gaither OLB, Cletis Gordon, Legedu Naanee WR (signed w/ Dolphins), Geoff Schwartz G (signed w/ Vikings), Jeremy Shockey TE, Travelle Wharton G (signed w/ Bengals)
Defense
If Carolina can find any improvement on this side of the ball, the Panthers could start to really make strides. Signing Reggie Smith and Haruki Nakamura will add depth to this secondary, but neither will have a major impact on the defense.
Kenny Onatolu, signed from the Vikings, is probably more of a special teams and depth player.
That leaves big holes at essentially every level of this defense. Chris Gamble is a good corner, but outside of him, this is an extremely limited group.
The defensive line desperately needs some impact players. Charles Johnson is the only player who would even start on most other teams and while he's an excellent pass rusher, he desperately needs help.
Carolina could draft a player at any defensive position and it would make sense. Adding some beef inside by getting a tackle who can rush the passer, but also anchor inside, would relieve a lot of stress on Johnson and this limited secondary.
Getting a corner with some speed and even some return ability would really be a boost to both this defense and special teams. You can never have too many corners in a division with Drew Brees and Matt Ryan.
Key Free Agents: Antwan Applewhite DE (re-signed w/ Panthers), Dan Connor ILB (signed w/ Cowboys), DeMario Pressley DT, Jordan Senn OLB (re-signed w/ Panthers)
Draft Targets
Needs: CB,WR,S,LB, DL
Round 1 (Pick 9): Fletcher Cox DT Mississippi State (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 8)
From what I'm hearing, Cox isn't falling this far. It sounds like neither the Rams nor the Jaguars are in love with Justin Blackmon and if he's available, he'd be extremely hard to give up. On the other hand, it's hard to know what to believe now that we're full on into what is known as the "silly season." If Cox or Quinton Coples is here at this pick, either would make the most sense (assuming Blackmon doesn't fall). Cox was dominant, at times, in the SEC and is so athletic some scouts believe he might be better suited to play end due to his combination of power and quickness. Every time I watched him play, I liked him more and more. By the end of the season he was a first round pick, and after wowing scouts in workouts, he's a top 10 talent. He'd be a terrific addition to this struggling defense.
Round 2 (Pick 40): Brandon Boykin CB Georgia (Pos. Rank: 5, Overall Rank: 41)
Round 2 (Pick 40): Brandon Boykin CB Georgia (Pos. Rank: 5, Overall Rank: 41)
To me, this pick comes down to two SEC players: Boykin and LSU wide receiver Rueben Randle. Both are outstanding athletes with speed and quickness to spare. Both are dynamic with the ball and possess terrific hands. Boykin is an undersized corner, whereas Rueben is 6'4" and reportedly ran sub 4.4 40's at his pro day. Boykin, though, plays a position of greater need and would be an asset in the return game. You get the feeling Cam Newton might be the kind of quarterback who can play with just about any group of receivers and he'll throw for 4,000 yards. Boykin would be a playmaker on a secondary without any, but Randle could be awfully hard to bypass.
Round 3 (Pick 73): Traded to Bears for Greg Olson
Round 3 (Pick 73): Traded to Bears for Greg Olson
Overall
With just two picks in the first 100, the Panthers will be under even more pressure to get this draft right. A few missteps here and it could set Cam Newton back a year of his development. Luckily, both picks are in the top 50 and it seems like every year, a few first round talents slip to the top the second round where needy franchises gladly scoop them up. Boykin is a tier below the fringe first round groups, but some red flags could drop first round talents like Alshon Jeffery (who would be an ideal fit for this team, with ties to the area) and Janoris Jenkins right into the lap of the Panthers. Even if that doesn't happen, a player like Boykin has the ball skills and big-play ability to warrant a high pick, not to mention Fletcher Cox has Pro Bowl talent along the interior. The value (0) isn't terrific, but with just two players, both potentially starters, this would be an excellent draft for the Panthers.
Final Thought
There's no questioning this is Cam Newton's team, barring injury, for the next decade. You don't play at the level he played at, set the kinds of records he did as a rookie, without having big-time talent. If this defense improves at all, so too should the Panthers. Improving much on their 6-10 record could be an issue since they get the NFC East and a much improved AFC West, along with the Saints and Falcons twice. Getting to 8-8 or even 7-9 with this schedule should be considered outstanding. With so much talent in the NFC, it's hard to imagine the Panthers pushing their way into the playoffs, but if a they draft well and can get production from their rookies, the post season isn't out of the question. We'll start to find out this season if Cam Newton can be more than just Stats Superman and be a winner in the NFL.
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Buffalo Bills
Buffalo's season started with more promise than any in recent memory. A 5-2 start had Bills fans thinking playoffs.
After narrow losses to Cincinnati and New York sandwiched a gutty victory over the Eagles, the Bills dusted the Redskins 23-0 and appeared to be a team to reckon with in the AFC.
Instead, the Bills free-fell from the standings, finishing the year 1-8 in the last nine games, including a Week 17 loss to the Patriots in which the Bills lead 21-0.
Buffalo locked up their starting quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick, to a long-term deal and have one of the best stable of running backs in the league.
Stevie Johnson signed a mega-deal to stay with the team, but outside of him, this receiving core lacks playmakers.
Mario Williams brought some legitimacy to a waning franchise by signing with the Bills this offseason. He and Mark Anderson, signed from the Patriots, will provide an immediate impact on what was a terrible defense.
This is a young team and they showed it last year by being unable to handle the pressure of winning games early.
Bringing in Williams and Anderson, both talented, veteran players, could help with the mental toughness of this team, who may not have believed they were as good as their record indicated early in the year.
The AFC East will be tough as long as Tom Brady plays there and the Jets are in a make-or-break season. But both of those things were no less true last year when the Bills started so hot.
With the way this offense can score, the Bills will at least be a team to be taken seriously next year.
Offense
It's pretty clear where the strengths and weaknesses of this offense reside.
Fred Jackson looked like the most complete back in football before an injury derailed his season. C.J. Spiller finally flashed his explosive talents last year, but was inconsistent at times and Tashard Choice is the best third running back in the game.
Ryan Fitzpatrick is getting paid like a franchise quarterback, although he's never going to be Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers. He is, however, a terrific leader, a hard-worker and knows the game. He can be your quarterback on a Super Bowl team, although this team is far from that point.
In terms of holes, the Bills' offensive line is a mess. Demetrius Bell signed with the Eagles in the offseason, leaving a glaring hole at left tackle. Chad Rinehart, a starter at guard, and Kraig Urbik the starting center, both have tested the free agent market, although neither has signed a new deal.
Likely, one or both of those players will return to Buffalo given the dire straights this team is in along the line, but don't be surprised to see the Bills target multiple offensive lineman in a draft heavy with line talent.
Getting a tight end who can be a threat in the passing game and a solid blocker would go a long way to covering some of the deficiencies of this line.
Key Free Agents: Demetrius Bell OT (signed w/ Eagles), Tashard Choice (re-signed w/ Bills), Derek Hagan WR (re-signed w/ Bills), Ruvell Martin (re-signed w/ Bills), Roscoe Parish (signed w/ Chargers), Chad Rinehart G, Kraig Urbik G,
Defense
Mario Williams brings legitimacy to any defense. After drawing controversy as the #1 overall pick in 2006, Williams has established himself as one of the premier pass rushers in the league.
His 6 year $100 million tells you that and although he wasn't a perfect fit for the Texans 3-4 defense, he has 100 million reasons to be on board with whatever defense they plan to play in Buffalo.
It is curious though, that the Bills, in signing Williams and Mark Anderson, signed two ends who have played almost exclusively in the 4-3 system, which may mean the Bills, who tinkered with a 3-4 defense, will play 4-3 almost exclusively next season.
That means the Bills will need to add some help for Nick Barnett at linebacker, particularly given Barnett's limited size inside. Super Mario and Anderson will help a defense that finished 19th against the pass last year, but getting better linebacker play will be a must if Buffalo hopes to do better than 28th against the run.
Buffalo has a solid safety tandem, but has struggled to find the right corners. Leodis McKelvin hasn't lived up to his first-round talent and Aaron Williams was forced to play as a rookie last season.
Building depth there would go a long way in stymieing the high-powered passing offenses in the AFC.
Key Free Agents:Reggie Corner CB, Andra Davis ILB, Bryan Scott DB (re-signed w/ Bills), Reggie Torbor DE,
Draft Targets
After narrow losses to Cincinnati and New York sandwiched a gutty victory over the Eagles, the Bills dusted the Redskins 23-0 and appeared to be a team to reckon with in the AFC.
Instead, the Bills free-fell from the standings, finishing the year 1-8 in the last nine games, including a Week 17 loss to the Patriots in which the Bills lead 21-0.
Buffalo locked up their starting quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick, to a long-term deal and have one of the best stable of running backs in the league.
Stevie Johnson signed a mega-deal to stay with the team, but outside of him, this receiving core lacks playmakers.
Mario Williams brought some legitimacy to a waning franchise by signing with the Bills this offseason. He and Mark Anderson, signed from the Patriots, will provide an immediate impact on what was a terrible defense.
This is a young team and they showed it last year by being unable to handle the pressure of winning games early.
Bringing in Williams and Anderson, both talented, veteran players, could help with the mental toughness of this team, who may not have believed they were as good as their record indicated early in the year.
The AFC East will be tough as long as Tom Brady plays there and the Jets are in a make-or-break season. But both of those things were no less true last year when the Bills started so hot.
With the way this offense can score, the Bills will at least be a team to be taken seriously next year.
Offense
It's pretty clear where the strengths and weaknesses of this offense reside.
Fred Jackson looked like the most complete back in football before an injury derailed his season. C.J. Spiller finally flashed his explosive talents last year, but was inconsistent at times and Tashard Choice is the best third running back in the game.
Ryan Fitzpatrick is getting paid like a franchise quarterback, although he's never going to be Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers. He is, however, a terrific leader, a hard-worker and knows the game. He can be your quarterback on a Super Bowl team, although this team is far from that point.
In terms of holes, the Bills' offensive line is a mess. Demetrius Bell signed with the Eagles in the offseason, leaving a glaring hole at left tackle. Chad Rinehart, a starter at guard, and Kraig Urbik the starting center, both have tested the free agent market, although neither has signed a new deal.
Likely, one or both of those players will return to Buffalo given the dire straights this team is in along the line, but don't be surprised to see the Bills target multiple offensive lineman in a draft heavy with line talent.
Getting a tight end who can be a threat in the passing game and a solid blocker would go a long way to covering some of the deficiencies of this line.
Key Free Agents: Demetrius Bell OT (signed w/ Eagles), Tashard Choice (re-signed w/ Bills), Derek Hagan WR (re-signed w/ Bills), Ruvell Martin (re-signed w/ Bills), Roscoe Parish (signed w/ Chargers), Chad Rinehart G, Kraig Urbik G,
Defense
Mario Williams brings legitimacy to any defense. After drawing controversy as the #1 overall pick in 2006, Williams has established himself as one of the premier pass rushers in the league.
His 6 year $100 million tells you that and although he wasn't a perfect fit for the Texans 3-4 defense, he has 100 million reasons to be on board with whatever defense they plan to play in Buffalo.
It is curious though, that the Bills, in signing Williams and Mark Anderson, signed two ends who have played almost exclusively in the 4-3 system, which may mean the Bills, who tinkered with a 3-4 defense, will play 4-3 almost exclusively next season.
That means the Bills will need to add some help for Nick Barnett at linebacker, particularly given Barnett's limited size inside. Super Mario and Anderson will help a defense that finished 19th against the pass last year, but getting better linebacker play will be a must if Buffalo hopes to do better than 28th against the run.
Buffalo has a solid safety tandem, but has struggled to find the right corners. Leodis McKelvin hasn't lived up to his first-round talent and Aaron Williams was forced to play as a rookie last season.
Building depth there would go a long way in stymieing the high-powered passing offenses in the AFC.
Key Free Agents:Reggie Corner CB, Andra Davis ILB, Bryan Scott DB (re-signed w/ Bills), Reggie Torbor DE,
Draft Targets
Needs: OL,WR,LB,DB,TE
Round 1 (Pick 10): Riley Reiff OT Iowa (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 11)
To me, this is a no-brainer. Reiff is clearly the second best offensive tackle in this draft and the Bills desperately need his toughness. Reiff isn't the pass-blocker that Matt Khalil is, but few are given that Khalil is considered by many to be one of the best tackle prospects to come out in the last several years. The former Iowa All-Big Ten selection faced some pretty fierce pass rushers in his conference and consistently held his own, although run blocking is his bread and butter. He compares favorably with former Iowa tackle and current Green Bay tackle Bryan Bulaga. Michael Floyd may be temping here, but the need and value for Reiff at this spot is too great to pass up.
Round 2 (Pick 41): Dwayne Allen TE Clemson (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 42)
Round 2 (Pick 41): Dwayne Allen TE Clemson (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 42)
Though not the great athlete of his draft class piers Coby Fleener and Orson Charles, Allen may be the most complete tight end in this draft class. He's a solid in-line blocker and a big bodied receiver with terrific hands. He isn't going to be a field-splitting target like Antonio Gates or Vernon Davis, but I've compared him a number of times to Heath Miller, a player who can help your offense in a number of ways and if you don't account for him, will beat you. Allen has fallen down boards a little bit as a result of some inconsistent play and the athletic display put on by Charles and Fleener in post-season workouts, but Allen has gotten first round buzz and would be an ideal fit for the Bills.
Round 3 (Pick 71): Chase Minnifield CB Virginia (Pos. Rank: 10, Overall Rank: 72)
Round 3 (Pick 71): Chase Minnifield CB Virginia (Pos. Rank: 10, Overall Rank: 72)
If Buffalo thinks a player like Bruce Irvin can play linebacker in their system, he might make more sense here and would give the Bills some freakishly athletic pass rushers. Irvin's limited history as a linebacker though, may give way for a corner like Minnifield to be the pick. If it weren't for injuries and concerns about his deep speed, Minnifield might actually have a shot to crack the first round. As a press corner, the former Virginia Cavalier has few piers in this class and has the ball skills to back up his in-your-face style. He's also a solid tackler, which means lining him up on slot receivers in nickel coverage would be an ideal situation for him, at least early in his career. You don't lose much if the offense runs out of multiple receiver sets, particularly if you let him press, because he's good enough in run support to play at the line of scrimmage.
Overall
This is one of those drafts where the numeric draft value (-3), doesn't tell the whole story. Reiff is a Day 1 starter out of necessity, but is a good value in the top 10. Allen, although he may not have the ceiling of a guy like Coby Fleener, doesn't have a low floor either and is, at worst, the kind of player the Bills can use regularly in two tight end sets, boosting both their run and pass game. Minnifield has major potential thanks to his press coverage abilities, an en vogue defense given its effectiveness against spread offenses like the Patriots who rely so much on timing. A draft like this could set the Bills up for success this season and beyond by filling the team's most pressing needs.Overall
Final Thought
We won't know if last year's 5-2 start was a mirage or the real deal for the Bills because the addition of Mario Williams could have such a profound impact on this team. Teaming Williams and Anderson with Marcel Dareus presents a real problem for opposing offenses and could yield drastic gains defensively. Even if the Bills don't improve much offensively, they were still in the top half of every major offensive category last year, meaning an improved defense should be enough to win another game or two. It's hard to see a team with this much talent regressing next year, but improving on their 6-10 record may be tough given their division. New England and New York certainly boast better teams and Miami, unlike Buffalo, got a lot better as the season went on last year. Next year will be Year 1 in finding out just how big a return the Bills will get from their $100 million man.
Monday, April 16, 2012
2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Kansas City Chiefs
Perhaps no team, this side of Chicago, lost more talent to injury last season than the Kansas City Chiefs.
Despite missing their quarterback and franchise running back however, the Chiefs still managed to win seven games and even make a run at the division title.
Coming off a year in which the Chiefs had double-digit wins and made the playoffs, the 7-9 finish was a disappointment for fans, but not a total loss.
Head Coach Todd Haley, whom the players had apparently tuned out, was replaced with Romeo Crennell who, in his first game as coach, beat the 13-0 Green Bay Packers.
Crennell inherited one of the most talented defensive rosters in football, but the offense remains a problem.
Jamaal Charles was establishing himself as one of the best running backs in football and was one of the most explosive at any position.A major knee injury sidetracked his development, but if he can come back and be close to 100%, the Chiefs offense immediately becomes better.
On the other side of the ball, it's scary to think how good this team would have been last year if Eric Berry had been healthy.
Even with the loss of their former first round pick, the Chiefs finished 6th in the NFL against the pass thanks to the corner player of Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr.
Carr was lost in free agency, but this secondary still has plenty of talent to be a top-level pass defense.
Adding another safety and a nose tackle in the middle would help boost an anemic rush defense and could make this defense a terror in the AFC.
Offense
It's interesting that a team with a defensive coach spent all of its free agency money this offseason on the offensive side of the ball. Eric Winston was absolutely stolen from Houston, after the Texans inexplicably cut one of the best right tackles in the game.
Kevin Boss was signed from Oakland to try and improve the tight end position, but Boss is really just insurance in case Tony Moeaki can't get all the way back from his ACL tear.
Brady Quinn and Peyton Hillis were signed to add depth to this team. Both are reclamation projects of sorts, and the Chiefs would probably prefer neither see major time on the field.
Receiver remains a major concern for the Chiefs with Dwane Bowe being franchised and Johnathan Baldwin hardly living up to expectations.
Unfortunately, while the Chiefs desperately need to upgrade that position, they probably have too much invested in Baldwin and Bowe, at least this season, to think about drafting a guy like Michael Floyd in the first round.
Don't be surprised, however, to see the Chiefs draft a running back in the first few rounds to pair with Charles who is at his best when he can be used in a multitude of ways. Dexter McCluster is a talented player, but Kansas City really hasn't figured out yet how to use him and he's not the kind of back you'd ideally pair with Charles.
Key Free Agents: Jackie Battle RB, Anthony Becht TE, Thomas Jones RB, Le'Ron McClain RB (signed w/ Chargers), Ryan O'Callaghan OT, Kyle Orton QB (signed w/ Cowboys), Leonard Pope TE (signed w/ Steelers), Barry Richardson OT, Jerheme Urban WR, Casey Wiegmann C
Defense
When you shut down the defending Super Bowl Champions, stopping a historic run through the regular season, it says something about the way you defend.
Kansas City has one of the best corners in the league not named Darrelle Revis in Brandon Flowers. His partner in crime, Brandon Carr was signed away to Dallas, but Travis Daniels was re-signed and Javier Arenas was a big-time playmaker in the secondary at Alabama, although he hasn't had the chance to show it in the NFL.
Tamba Hali is one of the best rush linebackers in the game and Derrick Johnson has finally shown the ability to play to his immense talents inside. Opposite Hali, Justin Houston showed flashes last year of why he was getting first round buzz and could really improve in his second season.
Getting better up the middle, whether it's a nose tackle or another inside linebacker, could go a long way in improving a rush defense that finished 26th in the league last season.
The ends in this 3-4 defensive line are both former top 10 picks, but neither Glenn Dorsey nor Tyson Jackson have been anything to write home about. The investment the Chiefs made in them may be far enough in the rear-view mirror to justify a high pick on someone like Fletcher Cox if he falls, or they could reach for a nose tackle like Dontari Poe. Either would be an upgrade over what they have.
Key Free Agents: Jovan Belcher ILB (re-signed w/ Chiefs), Brandon Carr CB (signed w/ Cowboys), Travis Daniels (re-signed w/ Chiefs), Wallace Gilberry DE, Kelly Gregg NT, Jon McGraw S, Sabby Piscitelli S,
Draft Targets
Despite missing their quarterback and franchise running back however, the Chiefs still managed to win seven games and even make a run at the division title.
Coming off a year in which the Chiefs had double-digit wins and made the playoffs, the 7-9 finish was a disappointment for fans, but not a total loss.
Head Coach Todd Haley, whom the players had apparently tuned out, was replaced with Romeo Crennell who, in his first game as coach, beat the 13-0 Green Bay Packers.
Crennell inherited one of the most talented defensive rosters in football, but the offense remains a problem.
Jamaal Charles was establishing himself as one of the best running backs in football and was one of the most explosive at any position.A major knee injury sidetracked his development, but if he can come back and be close to 100%, the Chiefs offense immediately becomes better.
On the other side of the ball, it's scary to think how good this team would have been last year if Eric Berry had been healthy.
Even with the loss of their former first round pick, the Chiefs finished 6th in the NFL against the pass thanks to the corner player of Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr.
Carr was lost in free agency, but this secondary still has plenty of talent to be a top-level pass defense.
Adding another safety and a nose tackle in the middle would help boost an anemic rush defense and could make this defense a terror in the AFC.
Offense
It's interesting that a team with a defensive coach spent all of its free agency money this offseason on the offensive side of the ball. Eric Winston was absolutely stolen from Houston, after the Texans inexplicably cut one of the best right tackles in the game.
Kevin Boss was signed from Oakland to try and improve the tight end position, but Boss is really just insurance in case Tony Moeaki can't get all the way back from his ACL tear.
Brady Quinn and Peyton Hillis were signed to add depth to this team. Both are reclamation projects of sorts, and the Chiefs would probably prefer neither see major time on the field.
Receiver remains a major concern for the Chiefs with Dwane Bowe being franchised and Johnathan Baldwin hardly living up to expectations.
Unfortunately, while the Chiefs desperately need to upgrade that position, they probably have too much invested in Baldwin and Bowe, at least this season, to think about drafting a guy like Michael Floyd in the first round.
Don't be surprised, however, to see the Chiefs draft a running back in the first few rounds to pair with Charles who is at his best when he can be used in a multitude of ways. Dexter McCluster is a talented player, but Kansas City really hasn't figured out yet how to use him and he's not the kind of back you'd ideally pair with Charles.
Key Free Agents: Jackie Battle RB, Anthony Becht TE, Thomas Jones RB, Le'Ron McClain RB (signed w/ Chargers), Ryan O'Callaghan OT, Kyle Orton QB (signed w/ Cowboys), Leonard Pope TE (signed w/ Steelers), Barry Richardson OT, Jerheme Urban WR, Casey Wiegmann C
Defense
When you shut down the defending Super Bowl Champions, stopping a historic run through the regular season, it says something about the way you defend.
Kansas City has one of the best corners in the league not named Darrelle Revis in Brandon Flowers. His partner in crime, Brandon Carr was signed away to Dallas, but Travis Daniels was re-signed and Javier Arenas was a big-time playmaker in the secondary at Alabama, although he hasn't had the chance to show it in the NFL.
Tamba Hali is one of the best rush linebackers in the game and Derrick Johnson has finally shown the ability to play to his immense talents inside. Opposite Hali, Justin Houston showed flashes last year of why he was getting first round buzz and could really improve in his second season.
Getting better up the middle, whether it's a nose tackle or another inside linebacker, could go a long way in improving a rush defense that finished 26th in the league last season.
The ends in this 3-4 defensive line are both former top 10 picks, but neither Glenn Dorsey nor Tyson Jackson have been anything to write home about. The investment the Chiefs made in them may be far enough in the rear-view mirror to justify a high pick on someone like Fletcher Cox if he falls, or they could reach for a nose tackle like Dontari Poe. Either would be an upgrade over what they have.
Key Free Agents: Jovan Belcher ILB (re-signed w/ Chiefs), Brandon Carr CB (signed w/ Cowboys), Travis Daniels (re-signed w/ Chiefs), Wallace Gilberry DE, Kelly Gregg NT, Jon McGraw S, Sabby Piscitelli S,
Draft Targets
Needs: WR,NT,S,TE,OL,RB
Round 1 (Pick 11): Luke Kuechley ILB Boston College (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 10)
Is this the safe choice? Maybe it is, but that doesn't make it a bad choice. Romeo Crennel has already failed as an NFL head coach which puts more pressure on his run in K.C. He needs to add solid player to his roster with this pick, preferably one without much risk. And let's not pretend like Kuechley isn't an elite-level prospect. He's a top 10 talent, with outstanding instincts and leadership skills. He flashed better-than-expected athleticism at the combine and people who think he doesn't have enough "upside," proabably haven't watched him play. Kuechley could follow the Zach Thomas playbook in the right defense: a tackling machine with great awareness and leadership, despite not possessing elite athleticism. Getting a corner like Dre Kirkpatrick might make sense here too, especially with Peyton Manning heading to the AFC West.
Round 2 (Pick 44): Lamar Miller RB Miami (Fla.) (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 44)
Round 2 (Pick 44): Lamar Miller RB Miami (Fla.) (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 44)
In a perfect world, a physical back would be here to pair with Jamaal Charles' dynamic, big-play ability. Miller is a home run hitter, but isn't a consistent between the tackles runner. He does have good balance and burst, but his vision is mediocre and he has to get lucky in order to pick more up than is blocked. Perhaps that has to do with the fact he was only a one-year starter at Miami and with some experience he'll get better. He certainly has the athletic talents to be a starter in the NFL if his feel can improve. Kansas City has interest in some of the quarterbacks in this draft and Brandon Weeden could get a look here too.
Round 3 (Pick 74): Markelle Martin S Oklahoma State (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 75)
Round 3 (Pick 74): Markelle Martin S Oklahoma State (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 75)
I love this pick for the Chiefs to pair Martin with Eric Berry. Berry is a physical safety who loves to hit and make big plays. Martin is more of a deep safety who uses his ball skills and range to make plays in the defensive backfield. Martin was, for much of the year, considered the top safety prospect in the class, although his play trailed off due to some nagging injuries. As a playmaker, Martin has few piers in this defensive back class, although he's not suited to playing slot receivers in man coverage. He's better reading and reacting where he can use his speed to make plays. Martin and Berry would also make a pretty pulverizing safety duo with both looking to knock guys out coming across the middle.
Overall
This wouldn't be a sexy draft for the Chiefs, but it would be an effective one. Kuechley is a guy who can start for this defense for the next decade and Martin, if he can stay healthy, can be an excellent starter as well. Miller, assuming the Chiefs can keep Charles, may not be a starter on this team, but has the talent to be a starting-caliber player particularly behind an offensive line that got a lot better with Eric Winston. The value (0) isn't outstanding, but it's above average and would fill needs at three critical positions. If Charles can't come back 100% to start the season, having a player like Miller would be important to providing balance for this offense, even if he's not a long-term starter. Martin and Kuechley both could be Day 1 starters.Overall
Final Thought
It's hard to know what will happen in the NFC West because we don't know how good the Broncos can be with Peyton Manning, nor do we know what state the Chargers and Raiders really are in as we head into 2012. Kansas City has as much talent as any of those teams and probably has the best defense of that group. If you told me the Chiefs would win the division and make the playoffs, I wouldn't be surprised. Likewise, if you told me they'd go 5-11 and finish last, I also wouldn't be surprised. The AFC West is truly up for grabs and the Chiefs, just a season removed from winning a division title, have as good a chance as any to take it down again. If the Chiefs are healthy, they might just be the best team in the West. Making a few key moves and adding the right pieces in the draft could solidify their standing as a playoff team, while failing to do so could topple them from the standings. This is one of the more enigmatic teams in the league as we enter 2012.
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Philadelphia Eagles
Rarely do you see a team with so much talent falter so horribly over the course of a 16 game season.
Philadelphia, on numerous occasion, snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. This easily could have been a 12 or 13 win team, but miscues, a lack of mental toughness and injuries ended up being too great to overcome.
As the favorite, or at least one of the favorites to win the NFC, the Eagles had a splashy offseason, but were never able to translate that onto the field.
They didn't have the players to institute the new defense which happened to be coached by a former offensive line assistant.
Andy Reid consistently and relentlessly botched clock and challenge situations, despite having solid game plans.
Ironically, Mike Vick will never be a rock as your franchise quarterback as long as he continues to be the dynamic dual-threat, based mainly on the fact that he simply gets injured too often.
If you're the Eagles you must have a competent back-up quarterback because you have to plan on Vick missing at least a game or two with injuries.
That number will likely increase as Vick gets older.
Luckily, the Eagles have one of the most electric skill positions groups in football with Jeremy Maclin, DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy and Brent Celek.
The defense has elite difference-makers at defense end and corner, absolute musts for a passing league like the modern NFL. Their linebacker and safety groups are, on the other hand, well below average.
Philadelphia is probably the most likely 2011 non-playoff team to rebound in 2012. There's simply too much talent on this team and frankly, Andy Reid's job depends on it.
Offense
Philadelphia only signed three free agents this offseason, all of whom play offensive tackle. Steve Vallos from Cleveland and Mike Gibson from Seattle will provide depth while Demetrius Bell, signed from Buffalo, is the presumed starter at left tackle with Jason Peters suffering a major Achilles injury.
The offensive line could still use help on the interior and the Eagles will likely draft some help upfront.
It's strange to see a team in the top 10 of every major offensive category only win eight games and miss out on the playoffs. Part of the reason was this team's heavy reliance on big plays. Maclin and Jackson are as explosive a duo as you'll find in the league, but on 3rd and 8 with safeties deep, those big plays don't come and you're having to punt.
Also, the Eagles ranked second to last in turnover margin, thanks in large part to the offense's carelessness with the ball whether it was fumbles or interceptions.
If you look at the teams who lead the league in turnover margin, seven of the top 10 teams made the playoffs and the top three teams, San Francisco, Green Bay and New England, were the three best teams in the league most of the season.
If the offense can cut down the turnovers, they will be in a better position to win games. Also, adding a big-bodied receiver to help convert in the red zone and on third downs would be a plus.
Key Free Agents: Ronnie Brown RB, King Dunlap OT (re-signed w/ Eagles), Jamaal Jackson C, Evan Mathis G (re-signed w/ Eagles), Owen Schmitt FB, Steve Smith WR (signed w/ Rams), Vince Young QB
Defense
A year after the Eagles went all-in with free agent signings, particularly on the defensive end, the biggest move Philadelphia made this year was trading for Demeco Ryans.
Philly desperately needed a run-stopping linebacker to help plug the leaks of this front seven which, at times, was out-muscled.
Adding some beef to this front would help as the defensive front seven is athletic and disruptive, but not overly physical.
Whether it's defensive lineman or linebackers or both, the Eagles need to get stronger and bigger upfront.
Corner is one position the Eagles won't struggle with, although Asante Samuel is reportedly on the trade block. This is a deep group despite the fact that Nnamdi Asomugha didn't play up to this reputation last year.
Safety is a concern position for the Eagles despite Kurt Coleman's success creating turnovers last year. Unfortunately, there is only a handful of potential starters in this year's safety class.
This defense, much like the offense, was also in the top 10 in points, yards and total defense, they just couldn't make the plays when they needed to get off the field.
Key Free Agents: Victor Abiamiri DE, Antonio Dixon DT (re-signed w/ Eagles), Derek Landri DT (re-signed w/ Eagles), Trevor Laws DT, Juqua Parker DE (signed w/ Browns)
Draft Targets
Round 3 (Pick 88 F/ Texans): Brock Osweiler QB Arizona State (Pos. Rank: 6, Overall Rank: 86)
I absolutely love this pick for the Eagles. Osweiler is a physically-gifted player who is surprisingly athletic for a player who is 6-7 240. He doesn't have much experience, but he'd have time to develop behind Vick and Andy Reid, for all of his faults with some in-game management, is still one of the most creative offensive minds in the game. Osweiler likely isn't ready to be the guy to step in should Vick get injured, but after a year or two he might be. With this young group of receivers and Shady McCoy in the backfield, you couldn't ask for a better position to be as a developing quarterback.
There's no denying the players this team has is good enough, with no upgrade this offseason, to make the playoffs. Demeco Ryans was a solid upgrade and Demetrius Bell is a terrific insurance policy given Jason Peters' injury. Beyond that, any additions the Eagles make are gravy from a talent perspective. For the Eagles, the biggest questions are whether or not they can eliminate the mistakes, both player and coaching. The turnovers killed the Eagles last year, as did a few botched situational calls from Reid. Turnovers tend to regress to the mean given that they're often based on a few lucky bounces. That's worth at least a win or two for this team and that's enough to put them into the playoffs. If that happens, they could make a deep run given the immense and explosive players on this team.
Philadelphia, on numerous occasion, snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. This easily could have been a 12 or 13 win team, but miscues, a lack of mental toughness and injuries ended up being too great to overcome.
As the favorite, or at least one of the favorites to win the NFC, the Eagles had a splashy offseason, but were never able to translate that onto the field.
They didn't have the players to institute the new defense which happened to be coached by a former offensive line assistant.
Andy Reid consistently and relentlessly botched clock and challenge situations, despite having solid game plans.
Ironically, Mike Vick will never be a rock as your franchise quarterback as long as he continues to be the dynamic dual-threat, based mainly on the fact that he simply gets injured too often.
If you're the Eagles you must have a competent back-up quarterback because you have to plan on Vick missing at least a game or two with injuries.
That number will likely increase as Vick gets older.
Luckily, the Eagles have one of the most electric skill positions groups in football with Jeremy Maclin, DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy and Brent Celek.
The defense has elite difference-makers at defense end and corner, absolute musts for a passing league like the modern NFL. Their linebacker and safety groups are, on the other hand, well below average.
Philadelphia is probably the most likely 2011 non-playoff team to rebound in 2012. There's simply too much talent on this team and frankly, Andy Reid's job depends on it.
Offense
Philadelphia only signed three free agents this offseason, all of whom play offensive tackle. Steve Vallos from Cleveland and Mike Gibson from Seattle will provide depth while Demetrius Bell, signed from Buffalo, is the presumed starter at left tackle with Jason Peters suffering a major Achilles injury.
The offensive line could still use help on the interior and the Eagles will likely draft some help upfront.
It's strange to see a team in the top 10 of every major offensive category only win eight games and miss out on the playoffs. Part of the reason was this team's heavy reliance on big plays. Maclin and Jackson are as explosive a duo as you'll find in the league, but on 3rd and 8 with safeties deep, those big plays don't come and you're having to punt.
Also, the Eagles ranked second to last in turnover margin, thanks in large part to the offense's carelessness with the ball whether it was fumbles or interceptions.
If you look at the teams who lead the league in turnover margin, seven of the top 10 teams made the playoffs and the top three teams, San Francisco, Green Bay and New England, were the three best teams in the league most of the season.
If the offense can cut down the turnovers, they will be in a better position to win games. Also, adding a big-bodied receiver to help convert in the red zone and on third downs would be a plus.
Key Free Agents: Ronnie Brown RB, King Dunlap OT (re-signed w/ Eagles), Jamaal Jackson C, Evan Mathis G (re-signed w/ Eagles), Owen Schmitt FB, Steve Smith WR (signed w/ Rams), Vince Young QB
Defense
A year after the Eagles went all-in with free agent signings, particularly on the defensive end, the biggest move Philadelphia made this year was trading for Demeco Ryans.
Philly desperately needed a run-stopping linebacker to help plug the leaks of this front seven which, at times, was out-muscled.
Adding some beef to this front would help as the defensive front seven is athletic and disruptive, but not overly physical.
Whether it's defensive lineman or linebackers or both, the Eagles need to get stronger and bigger upfront.
Corner is one position the Eagles won't struggle with, although Asante Samuel is reportedly on the trade block. This is a deep group despite the fact that Nnamdi Asomugha didn't play up to this reputation last year.
Safety is a concern position for the Eagles despite Kurt Coleman's success creating turnovers last year. Unfortunately, there is only a handful of potential starters in this year's safety class.
This defense, much like the offense, was also in the top 10 in points, yards and total defense, they just couldn't make the plays when they needed to get off the field.
Key Free Agents: Victor Abiamiri DE, Antonio Dixon DT (re-signed w/ Eagles), Derek Landri DT (re-signed w/ Eagles), Trevor Laws DT, Juqua Parker DE (signed w/ Browns)
Draft Targets
Needs: OL,LB,S,RB,WR
Round 1 (Pick 15): Luke Kuechley ILB Boston College (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 10)
Round 1 (Pick 15): Luke Kuechley ILB Boston College (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 10)
If there was ever a marriage of need and value this is it. Kuechley was a tackling machine at Boston College and is the kind of physical, instinctive linebacker that could really improve this Eagle defense. He showed surprising athleticism at the combine, but the tape shows a lack of elite explosion to the ball. Luckily, he's so smart and adept at reading plays, for him, it's the difference between meeting the ball-carrier in the hole versus the backfield. He's still going to be in position to make a playe and is the kind of kid you can build a defense around.
Round 2 (Pick 46): Rueben Randle WR LSU (Pos. Rank: 6, Overall Rank: 46)
Round 2 (Pick 46): Rueben Randle WR LSU (Pos. Rank: 6, Overall Rank: 46)
Scary. That's what this would be for defenses in the NFC East. Randle is a 6-4 receiver who reportedly ran in the 4.3's at his LSU pro day. Without a quality quarterback in college, it's hard to know just how good Randle can be, but physically he has every tool you could want. He's risen up draft boards and has even gotten some first round buzz leading up to the draft. If you trot Randle out there with Maclin and Jackson, you can put Jackson in the slot and suddenly you have a nightmare for opponents trying to cover maybe the fastest trio of receivers in the game. When you consider Randle's frame, he also has the size to give you those possession catches in the red zone and across the middle, something they don't have currently.
Round 2 (Pick 51 F/ Cardinals): Brandon Thompson DT Clemson (Pos. Rank: 7, Overall Rank: 51)
Andy Reid admitted after the season that he didn't have the defensive personnel to play some of the schemes they wanted to play last year. Really, that's his way of saying we don't have the right defensive tackles and linebackers because the 'wide 9' technique fits these defensive ends perfectly. Thompson is a player who has seen his stock consistently fall over the course of the season, but he's a powerful defensive tackle who can man his gap and uses his long frame to occupy blockers. He won't be an elite penetrater, but doesn't have to be in this defense where the ends are so dynamic off the edge.
Round 2 (Pick 51 F/ Cardinals): Brandon Thompson DT Clemson (Pos. Rank: 7, Overall Rank: 51)
Andy Reid admitted after the season that he didn't have the defensive personnel to play some of the schemes they wanted to play last year. Really, that's his way of saying we don't have the right defensive tackles and linebackers because the 'wide 9' technique fits these defensive ends perfectly. Thompson is a player who has seen his stock consistently fall over the course of the season, but he's a powerful defensive tackle who can man his gap and uses his long frame to occupy blockers. He won't be an elite penetrater, but doesn't have to be in this defense where the ends are so dynamic off the edge.
Round 3 (Pick 88 F/ Texans): Brock Osweiler QB Arizona State (Pos. Rank: 6, Overall Rank: 86)
Overall
Philadelphia is one of the better drafting teams in the league and this class would be no exception. From a value standpoint (7+), it'd be an elite group, plus they pick up a luxury pick in the second round when they traded Kevin Kolb. That deal already seems like a steal for the Eagles, but if a first round talent like Brandon Thompson falls to them, it will get even better.You're looking at up to three first-year starters right away, but at least two, plus a potential franchise quarterback. Under any circumstances, that's an excellent draft, but when you add in the kind of value here, it's an outstanding blend of quality and need.
Final Thought
There's no denying the players this team has is good enough, with no upgrade this offseason, to make the playoffs. Demeco Ryans was a solid upgrade and Demetrius Bell is a terrific insurance policy given Jason Peters' injury. Beyond that, any additions the Eagles make are gravy from a talent perspective. For the Eagles, the biggest questions are whether or not they can eliminate the mistakes, both player and coaching. The turnovers killed the Eagles last year, as did a few botched situational calls from Reid. Turnovers tend to regress to the mean given that they're often based on a few lucky bounces. That's worth at least a win or two for this team and that's enough to put them into the playoffs. If that happens, they could make a deep run given the immense and explosive players on this team.
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