2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Miami Dolphins

It almost seems irrelevant to talk about the 2012 Miami Dolphins through the lens of last year's team because the two will hardly resemble one another. 

Tony Sparano's ground and pound ideals will be replaced with a more open passing offense under former Packers coach Joe Philbin.

The old 3-4 defense will be replaced with the more traditional 4-3 system under long-time former defensive backs coach Kevin Coyle.

Changing defenses is considerably more surprising considering the Dolphins' strength last year was its physical defense.

After starting the year 0-7, the Dolphins finished 6-3, thanks mostly to the superior play of that defense.

That being said, this is an offensively-challenged team and although Matt Moore was decent last year, David Garrard was signed to compete for the job and whispers have grown to shouts about the Dolphins drafting Ryan Tannehill.

You'd expect the Dolphins to draft a quarterback early, but they'll have to decide what kind of price they're willing to pay in order to get him.

Despite having a top 10 defense last year, there are some concerns in the secondary and finding a pass rusher opposite Cameron Wake, particularly in this new defense will be paramount.


Offense
This offensive line could use an overhaul. Outside of Jake Long, there isn't a lot to work with here and new offensive coordinator Mike Sherman, a former offensive line coach, knows the value of winning up front.

Artis Hicks, signed from the Browns, is a veteran offensive lineman, but is long in the tooth and isn't a long-term solution there.

Getting an offensive lineman or two in the draft will be a top priority.

Receiver is another major concern with the Dolphins trading Brandon Marshall to the Bears without much left beyond him. Legedu Naanee was signed to pick up some of the slack, but much like Hicks, Naanee isn't going to write any headlines with his play.

Adding another wide receiver could help whomever will be under center for the Dolphins.

The quarterback situation is the hardest to peg. Ryan Tannehill didn't even play quarterback for his whole time under Mike Sherman and whether or not Sherman can convince Philbin or Dolphin management that Tannehill is the guy remains to be seen.

If Tannehill makes it to the eighth pick, he'll be hard to pass, but there are enough holes on this team and enough quality quarterbacks in this draft to wait until the second or third round to get their young quarterback.

I have a feeling Philbin, having seen the success of Ted Thompson, will push to wait on a quarterback until the value is right. Whether or not he wins out, we'll find out on draft day.

Key Free Agents: Vernon Carey G, Marc Colombo OT, Chad Henne (signed w/ Jaguars), J.P. Losman QB, Lydon Murtha OT (re-signed w/ Dolphins), Chad Pennington QB, Steve Slaton RB (re-signed w/ Dolphins)

Defense
Part of the legacy Sparano will leave in Miami is the physicality his team played with on both sides of the ball. There wasn't a tremendous talent pool on this front, but they finished 3rd in the league against the run.

When you consider Miami finished 25th in the league against the pass, but still managed to wind up 6th in points, this group played adversity defense on a high level.


Jamaal Westerman was signed from the Jets, and Gary Guyton from the Patriots to bolster this linebacker group.

Guyton becomes the presumptive starter in the middle with Westerman fighting for an outside linebacker spot opposite Carlos Dansby.

To boost the secondary, Richard Marshall was signed from the Cardinals, as was Tyrell Johnson from the Vikings. Both could be starters for this team.

There are some young players on the defensive line who do have some potential. They don't have a true 4-3 end on the team, but Wake is an elite-level pass rusher and should be effective no matter where they line him up.

Getting another end and creating more pressure will be an important step to compete in the AFC East.

Key Free Agents: Ikaika Alama-Francis LB, Will Allen FS (signed w/ Patriots), Ryan Baker DE (signed w/ Dolphins), Yeremiah Bell S, Kendall Langford DE (signed w/ Rams), Phillip Merling DT (re-signed w/ Dolphins), Igor Olshansky DT, Paul Soliai NT ( re-signed w/ Dolphins),

Draft Targets

Needs: OL,QB,WR,LB,TE,S
Round 1 (Pick 8): David DeCastro G Stanford (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 9)

I have a feeling that a team other than Miami will trade up for Tannehill. Cleveland could certainly take him at #4. Either way, DeCastro is the second-best lineman in this draft and is the kind of guy who could be a 10 year starter on this team along side Jake Long. He's extremely smart (the guy went to Stanford). DeCastro is equally adept in the run and passing game and uses his excellent blend of power and quickness to wall defenders. He can improve his technique using his hands, but he's not going to get out-worked or out-hustled in the NFL and he has a chance to be a Pro Bowl guard for the Dolphins.

Round 2 (Pick 42): Rueben Randle WR LSU (Pos. Rank: 6, Overall Rank: 43)

If Kirk Cousins is rated ahead of Brandon Weedon on Miami's board, I can see him being the pick here. If I'm the Dolphins, I'd much rather get a top-tier talent in the first round than reach for a second round talent (Tannehill), when I can get a second round talent (and this may shock you) in the second round. If Cousins isn't the pick, expect a receiver. Randle has the big body the departed Marshall did, but is much more athletic and ran sub 4.4 at his pro day. It's tough to know just how good Randle is because he's never played with a quality quarterback, nor has he played in a pro style passing offense. The physical talents are there though and he has a chance to be a big-time sleeper in this draft.

Round 3 (Pick 72): Brock Osweiler QB Arizona State (Pos. Rank: 6, Overall Rank: 64)

To me, there isn't much difference between Osweiler and Tannehill in terms of having the potential to be good without being a finished product. If you think about it, Tannehill would have been ranked behind Matt Barkley and Landry Jones had those two declared. Tannehill is second-round prospect. Osweiler has a better natural feel for the position and has better accuracy. His ability to read defenses is a work in progress and he will stare down his reads occasionally. He didn't play with great playmakers around him at Arizona State, especially compared to Tannehill and with time to learn, Osweiler has a high ceiling with his big frame and underrated athletic talents.

  Round 3 (Pick 73 F/ Bears): Bruce Irvin OLB West Virginia (Pos. Rank: 5, Overall Rank: 71)

With Wake coming off one edge, having Irvin coming off the other would create serious match-up problems for opposing offenses.Irvin would be undersized playing end in the 4-3 and would have to move to linebacker, but has the speed and quickness to play well in space. Whether or not he has the instincts will only be known if and when he has the chance to play there. The Dolphins could use him much like Von Miller in Denver. In passing situations, Irvin could play end and then play linebacker on first or second down. Irvin would give them tremendous versatility and would allow them to be creative with personnel, even potentially keeping some of the 3-4 looks that were so good for this defense last year.
 
Overall

I hope, for the Dolphins sake, they wait on finding a quarterback until the value makes more sense. There are two Day 1 starters in this draft, the potential quarterback of the future, and a future starter at linebacker. Randle, Osweiler and Irvin are all projects of sorts, but have some of the highest ceilings of any player at their respective positions in the 2012 class. A draft like this would give new coach Joe Philbin a slew of young, talented players to develop. If Philbin is anything like his former boss, Mike McCarthy, Philbin will want to get his guy and work with him. Whether or not it's Osweiler, we won't know until next week, but Miami certainly will get someone to develop at that position.

Final Thought
Even if the Dolphins go with a quarterback early, David Garrard or Matt Moore will, in all likelihood, be the opening day starter. Whether or not they finish the season may rest with how well the Dolphins play. Can they keep the momentum from last year's finish moving forward? With so many changes in personnel and with the coaching staff, it's hard to imagine they can. Just like it is with any new coach, the first draft is always the most important because it lays the foundation for this team moving forward. I can't see them mortgaging their future for a guy like Tannehill,  but I've been wrong before. 

2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: New York Jets

Tim Tebow.

That's all I have to say and I'm guaranteed to get clicks right?

That seems to be the philosophy of the New York Jets management as well given that bringing Tim Tebow to New York doesn't seem to make that much football sense.

Rex Ryan already has a famous quarterback who "just wins," but seems to lack the skills necessary to be an elite quarterback.

Now, Ryan has two, except the fans will be so excited for Tebow that unless the Jets go 13-3, win the division and at least go to a Super Bowl, there will be a dangerously high level of pressure to give Tebow more run.

You're taking the confidence of a player whose game is predicated on that confidence and completely undermining it by bringing in a player with the most ferocious following in the sport.

Then, you have the owner going on ESPN to say that Tebow is going to play 10-15 snaps a game unless he gets something going. In other words, if Tebow leads them to a touchdown, he'll keep playing and keep your supposed franchise quarterback (at least the guy you're paying to be one) on the bench.

This works at times in college. It doesn't in the NFL. I have no idea how this is going to play out, but I can't imagine a team in today's NFL winning a championship when you have a quarterback who you'd rather not play the whole game.

Rex Ryan was quiet this offseason, humble, even ingratiating. The Jets didn't throw money at every free agent on the market and actually lost a number of key contributors.

It's been a strange offseason to say the least and the Jets will need to have an extremely efficient draft in order to get back to the playoffs in 2012, particularly with holes at wide receiver, offensive line and pass rush to address.

Offense
Adding Tebow to this offense may make it a better rushing team, a critical piece for Rex Ryan's team which will almost certainly have another elite defensive season.

Shonn Green hasn't been able to stay healthy and LaDainian Tomlinson is a free agent. Joe McKnight has been dynamic in the return game and may be used more in the offense this year to create big plays.

Chaz Schilens was signed from Oakland to further supplement the big play department. Schilens started just five games for the Raiders last year, but is a talented young receiver who is 6-4 225 pounds and could play the role held by Plaxico Burress last year as the team's red zone target.

I love the potential of using Jeremy Kerley in the slot and wild cat, much like they used to with Brad Smith. Getting another receiver to groom as the future #1 could be a target for the Jets in the first or second round of the draft.

Also on the list of top draft needs offensively is some offensive line help, particularly at guard. This offensive line didn't play nearly as well in 2011 as it did the two previous seasons when the Jets pounded teams with the running game.

Dustin Keller has been an up and down player for the Jets as well so getting another athlete at tight end could help both the run and pass game.


Key Free Agents: Plaxico Burress WR, LaDainian Tomlinson RB, Robert Turner G

Defense
This defense relied more on scheme than talent last season and showed it's flaws when several starters were lost to injury.

LaRon Landry  was signed from Washington to mitigate the pending free agency of both starting safeties from last year. Jim Leonard may still return to the Jets and New York's poor play without him suggests Woody Hayes would be wise to find the right amount in his checkbook to keep Leonard.

Rex Ryan's creativity with blitz schemes coupled with the excellent corner talent on this team belies the fact that this defense lacks difference makers at outside linebacker and along the defensive front line.

Sione Pouha is one of the best nose tackles in the league, but the ends next to him are average at best. Calvin Pace and Bryan Thomas, the team's returning starters at outside linebacker, combined for just 4.5 sacks last season.

Adding an athletic outside linebacker may make Jet fans nervous since the disaster named Vernon Gholston came through Manhattan, but New York could be back to dominating teams if it can find a way to get pressure without bringing extra rushers.

Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie are good enough to force opposing quarterbacks to hold the ball an extra second, which means any kind of pass rush will give offenses fits.

Key Free Agents: Marquice Cole DB (signed w/ Patriots), Jim Leonard S, Brodney Poole S (signed w/ Cowboys), Sione Pouha DT (re-signed w/ Jets), Donald Strickland CB, Bryan Thomas OLB (re-signed w/ Jets), Jamaal Westerman OLB ( signed w/ Dolphins)

Draft Targets

Needs: OL,WR,OLB,RB,DL,S


Round 1 (Pick 16): Michael Floyd WR Notre Dame (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 14)

It's sounding more and more like Floyd may not fall to the Jets here given the interest from teams inside the top 10 including Miami, Carolina and Jacksonville. If he does fall, the Jets will gladly take one of the most dominant receivers in college football over the past three seasons. Floyd isn't a burner, but is physical and has outstanding hands to make catches in traffic. Floyd would be a reach inside the top 10, but would have terrific value here. Mark Barron or Courtney Upshaw would make sense here if Floyd does come off the board sooner.


Round 2 (Pick 47): Bruce Irvin OLB West Virginia (Pos. Rank: 6, Overall Rank: 47)

I love this pick for New York because it gives them the kind of athletic talent they haven't had at outside linebacker in recent years. Irvin is a 4.4 athlete with suddenness off the edge. He actually played defensive end at West Virginia, so he's used to holding the edge against bigger tackles. With his quickness and burst, Rex Ryan could use Irvin all over the field and bring him from a number of angles on stunts and twists. If Muhammed Wilkerson can develop, these two could make it extremely tough for opponents to slide protections one direction without leaving themselves vulnerable on the other.

Round 3 (Pick 79): Jared Crick DE Nebraska (Pos. Rank: 9, Overall Rank: 74)

This is another pick that would be a stroke of luck for the Jets. Crick was once seen as a first round pick until a muscle tear set him back. Crick could play defensive end in either a 4-3 or 3-4 system and has the strength to hold the edge, plus ability to use his hands to fight off blocks and penetrate. Crick isn't going to be Richard Seymour or Justin Smith, but he certainly has the talent to start over Mike DeVito and be productive in this defense. Not an elite pass rusher, Crick is probably best suited to be a 3-4 end who can hold his gap and allow New York's talented inside linebackers to make plays behind him.

Overall

If the draft falls this way, the Jets would walk away with one of the best hauls in the league. They have needs at positions with deep pools of talent this year and the value of this draft (7+) would be elite. To also address critical position needs makes this class even better. All three players are starting caliber talents while Floyd and Irvin are both high-ceiling players, capable of being Pro Bowlers. Crick is going to be assignment sure and at the very least a quality rotation player on an excellent defense. I would say that qualifies this draft as a success.

Final Thought

If the Jets can get a receiver and one of the top pass rushers in this draft in the first two rounds, this team will be in the playoffs in 2012. Rex Ryan isn't just gregarious and confident, he's a hell of a coach and the Jets have too much talent to miss the playoffs two years in a row. There are plenty of reasons to be concerned, the quarterback situation being both the most obvious and most scrutinized. On the other hand, a healthy defense for a full season will again terrorize opponents and this offense should be better if it can land another receiver to stretch the field. Anything less than 10 wins and a playoff birth would be underachieving.

2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: New England Patriots

It wasn't always pretty for the Patriots, but, as they usually do under Bill Belichick, the Patriots kept winning games.

The singular abilities of Tom Brady and his devastating duo of tight ends were enough to make up for the historically putrid defense New England played..

As they seem to every year, New England has a glut of draft picks that they'll likely use to trade for more draft picks because Belichik hoards picks like he needs a TLC show.

This year though, the Pats face enormous turnover on their roster with at least three offensive starters hitting free agency and essentially the entire defensive front also winding up on the open market, there are more holes than normal to fill. 

Brady's brilliance should be enough to carry this team to another 10+ win season even with a bad defense and the turnover on this defense is actually a positive. Getting younger and more dynamic upfront will prevent Brady from having to win games by himself and luckily for the Pats, this year's draft is loaded with defensive lineman.
 

Offense

Tom Brady. Wes Welker. Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez. That's enough. It was enough last year and it'll be enough this year assuming the Patriots are satisfied with chucking it 40+ times a game. 

The offensive line didn't play as well last year as it had in years past, but having two tight ends allowed the Patriots to keep one in to block against some of the elite defenses. 

Adding a running back who can be a legitimate threat would certainly help this offense, as would a deep-threat at wide receiver. There has been talk that Mike Wallace could be in play for the Patriots and that they'd be willing to pay a heavy price to get him. 

Adding a speed receiver of Mike Wallace's caliber would make this offense look a lot like that '07 team that torched people...only better.
Key Free Agents: Deion Branch WR, BenJarvis Green-Ellis RB, Dan Koppen C, 

Defense 

Unlike on Patriot teams of the early 2000's, there isn't a single player on the defense where you can say, "This is one of the elite guys at his position."

Ty Law and Lawyer Milloy aren't walking through that door.

There just really isn't a blue-chip player on this defense and that was a big reason this team would up 31st against the pass last year.If not for a shoot-out in Week 17 for the Packers defense, this Patriots defense would have been the worst ever defending the pass.

Without a pass-rush or even enough bodies to suit up a full roster in the secondary, it's amazing New England was able to even stay in games.

Now, basically the entire defensive line outside of Vince Wilfork is headed for free agency and Wilfork is on the wrong side of 30 for a man his size. Getting more explosive upfront, bringing in players to rush the passer will help take pressure off of a weak secondary.

The Patriots have enough picks early ( five in the first 100 picks) to address both needs.
 
Key Free Agens:Shaun Ellis DE, Andre Carter DE, Mark Anderson DE, Gerard Warren DT,Gary Guyton LB, Tracy White LB,James Ihedigbo S

Draft Targets

Needs: DL,DB,OL,LB,WR,RB

Round 1 (Pick 27) F/New Orleans: Whitney Mercilus DE/OLB Illinois (Pos. Rank 3, Overall Rank: 25)
I think we should expect the Patriots to take the guy they have as the top-rated pass rusher left on the board here assuming there's value in the pick. Mercilus lead the nation in sacks last year at Illinois and showed at the combine he has more athletic tools than his tape might show. A 4-3 end who has plenty of room to grow is exactly what could jump-start this defense.

Round 1 (Pick 31): Jerel Worthy DT Michigan State  (Pos. Rank: 5, Overall Rank: 30)
Yikes. Jerel Worthy was one of the most dominant inside players in the nation the past two years and was once considered a top 15 pick. His motor runs a little hot and cold, but when he's locked in, he's a dominating force, as he showed against Wisconsin's outstanding offensive line this year. Worthy can clog the middle as well as penetrate, especially when he'll get a ton of 1-on-1 opportunities playing next to Wilfork.

Round 2 (Pick 48) F/ Oakland: Alfonzo Dennard CB Nebraska (Pos. Rank: 6, Overall Rank: 51)
Though it's a slight reach by value, I like this pick for the Patriots because it allows them to get a player who can play both corner and safety. Given that Dennard lacks elite speed, some teams see him as a safety, where the Patriots hardly had enough players to put 11 on the field. Dennard is physical and tough, but doesn't have great ball skills. With all of the specialty defensive packages teams use to stop creative offenses, Dennard could slide in as a nickel corner who specializes in covering elite tight ends, without giving up much defending the run.

Round 2 (Pick 63): George Iloka S Boise State (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 66)
Iloka is another player who has some hybrid skills. There were some questions about his athletic ability and some scouts thought he might be a linebacker in the NFL. When he ran the 40 in 4.66, he put to rest some of those doubts, but Iloka's niche at the next level will likely be as a box safety. He's played against some questionable talent, but he was a leader of a really underrated defense in Boise. His versatility and instincts would be a welcome addition to Bill Belichick's defense.
 

Round 3 (Pick 94): Shea McClellin OLB/DE Boise State (Pos. Rank: 10, Overall Rank: 90)

While I'm not sure if McClellin is an ideal fit for the Patriots since they switched back to a 4-3 defense, McClellin's pass rushing abilities are on an elite list in this draft. Whether he plays linebacker much like Von Miller in Denver, or they convert him to end, McClellin actually ran a faster 40 than his teammate Iloka, meaning he has the speed to play linebacker in the NFL if needed. The Patriots front seven is a mess and for someone with his athletic skills and relentless motor, Belichick would have no problem being creative with such a versatile player.


Overall 

Landing a deep threat receiver is the only thing this draft would lack for the Patriots. However, from a value standpoint, New England does come out net positive (1+) while addressing their most pressing needs defensively. I could certainly see the Pats being a team to trade up for one of the elite pass rushers like Courtney Upshaw or one of the elite corners like Janoris Jenkins or Dre Kirkpatrick. On the other hand, standing pat (no pun intended), allows New England to cherry-pick talent at the deep defensive line and defensive back positions.

Final Thought

Even if Peyton Manning doesn't wind up in Miami, the AFC East will likely be a dogfight this year. New England will be trying to incorporate a lot of new faces, particularly defensively while the cohesion on the other three teams will be much higher. On the other hand, Gronk and Hernandez are in their primes and Brady showed last year he's not over the hill, meaning the Patriots should once again be the favorite to come out of the AFC.