2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: New England Patriots

It wasn't always pretty for the Patriots, but, as they usually do under Bill Belichick, the Patriots kept winning games.

The singular abilities of Tom Brady and his devastating duo of tight ends were enough to make up for the historically putrid defense New England played..

As they seem to every year, New England has a glut of draft picks that they'll likely use to trade for more draft picks because Belichik hoards picks like he needs a TLC show.

This year though, the Pats face enormous turnover on their roster with at least three offensive starters hitting free agency and essentially the entire defensive front also winding up on the open market, there are more holes than normal to fill. 

Brady's brilliance should be enough to carry this team to another 10+ win season even with a bad defense and the turnover on this defense is actually a positive. Getting younger and more dynamic upfront will prevent Brady from having to win games by himself and luckily for the Pats, this year's draft is loaded with defensive lineman.
 

Offense

Tom Brady. Wes Welker. Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez. That's enough. It was enough last year and it'll be enough this year assuming the Patriots are satisfied with chucking it 40+ times a game. 

The offensive line didn't play as well last year as it had in years past, but having two tight ends allowed the Patriots to keep one in to block against some of the elite defenses. 

Adding a running back who can be a legitimate threat would certainly help this offense, as would a deep-threat at wide receiver. There has been talk that Mike Wallace could be in play for the Patriots and that they'd be willing to pay a heavy price to get him. 

Adding a speed receiver of Mike Wallace's caliber would make this offense look a lot like that '07 team that torched people...only better.
Key Free Agents: Deion Branch WR, BenJarvis Green-Ellis RB, Dan Koppen C, 

Defense 

Unlike on Patriot teams of the early 2000's, there isn't a single player on the defense where you can say, "This is one of the elite guys at his position."

Ty Law and Lawyer Milloy aren't walking through that door.

There just really isn't a blue-chip player on this defense and that was a big reason this team would up 31st against the pass last year.If not for a shoot-out in Week 17 for the Packers defense, this Patriots defense would have been the worst ever defending the pass.

Without a pass-rush or even enough bodies to suit up a full roster in the secondary, it's amazing New England was able to even stay in games.

Now, basically the entire defensive line outside of Vince Wilfork is headed for free agency and Wilfork is on the wrong side of 30 for a man his size. Getting more explosive upfront, bringing in players to rush the passer will help take pressure off of a weak secondary.

The Patriots have enough picks early ( five in the first 100 picks) to address both needs.
 
Key Free Agens:Shaun Ellis DE, Andre Carter DE, Mark Anderson DE, Gerard Warren DT,Gary Guyton LB, Tracy White LB,James Ihedigbo S

Draft Targets

Needs: DL,DB,OL,LB,WR,RB

Round 1 (Pick 27) F/New Orleans: Whitney Mercilus DE/OLB Illinois (Pos. Rank 3, Overall Rank: 25)
I think we should expect the Patriots to take the guy they have as the top-rated pass rusher left on the board here assuming there's value in the pick. Mercilus lead the nation in sacks last year at Illinois and showed at the combine he has more athletic tools than his tape might show. A 4-3 end who has plenty of room to grow is exactly what could jump-start this defense.

Round 1 (Pick 31): Jerel Worthy DT Michigan State  (Pos. Rank: 5, Overall Rank: 30)
Yikes. Jerel Worthy was one of the most dominant inside players in the nation the past two years and was once considered a top 15 pick. His motor runs a little hot and cold, but when he's locked in, he's a dominating force, as he showed against Wisconsin's outstanding offensive line this year. Worthy can clog the middle as well as penetrate, especially when he'll get a ton of 1-on-1 opportunities playing next to Wilfork.

Round 2 (Pick 48) F/ Oakland: Alfonzo Dennard CB Nebraska (Pos. Rank: 6, Overall Rank: 51)
Though it's a slight reach by value, I like this pick for the Patriots because it allows them to get a player who can play both corner and safety. Given that Dennard lacks elite speed, some teams see him as a safety, where the Patriots hardly had enough players to put 11 on the field. Dennard is physical and tough, but doesn't have great ball skills. With all of the specialty defensive packages teams use to stop creative offenses, Dennard could slide in as a nickel corner who specializes in covering elite tight ends, without giving up much defending the run.

Round 2 (Pick 63): George Iloka S Boise State (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 66)
Iloka is another player who has some hybrid skills. There were some questions about his athletic ability and some scouts thought he might be a linebacker in the NFL. When he ran the 40 in 4.66, he put to rest some of those doubts, but Iloka's niche at the next level will likely be as a box safety. He's played against some questionable talent, but he was a leader of a really underrated defense in Boise. His versatility and instincts would be a welcome addition to Bill Belichick's defense.
 

Round 3 (Pick 94): Shea McClellin OLB/DE Boise State (Pos. Rank: 10, Overall Rank: 90)

While I'm not sure if McClellin is an ideal fit for the Patriots since they switched back to a 4-3 defense, McClellin's pass rushing abilities are on an elite list in this draft. Whether he plays linebacker much like Von Miller in Denver, or they convert him to end, McClellin actually ran a faster 40 than his teammate Iloka, meaning he has the speed to play linebacker in the NFL if needed. The Patriots front seven is a mess and for someone with his athletic skills and relentless motor, Belichick would have no problem being creative with such a versatile player.


Overall 

Landing a deep threat receiver is the only thing this draft would lack for the Patriots. However, from a value standpoint, New England does come out net positive (1+) while addressing their most pressing needs defensively. I could certainly see the Pats being a team to trade up for one of the elite pass rushers like Courtney Upshaw or one of the elite corners like Janoris Jenkins or Dre Kirkpatrick. On the other hand, standing pat (no pun intended), allows New England to cherry-pick talent at the deep defensive line and defensive back positions.

Final Thought

Even if Peyton Manning doesn't wind up in Miami, the AFC East will likely be a dogfight this year. New England will be trying to incorporate a lot of new faces, particularly defensively while the cohesion on the other three teams will be much higher. On the other hand, Gronk and Hernandez are in their primes and Brady showed last year he's not over the hill, meaning the Patriots should once again be the favorite to come out of the AFC.

The Biggest Loser? How About the Only Loser

Nearly 100 million viewers watched the New York Giants upset the heavily favored and previously undefeated New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. A grizzly, sloppy game until the fourth quarter, the finish was nothing short of spectacular. When the gun sounded Eli Manning was the MVP and Bill Belichick was leaving the field with his pride...well except for the red hoody.

As I watched Mr. Spygate trudge towards Tom Coughlin and offer a hug that ranks in awkwardness to the handshake with Eric Mangini, I realized he was the only person with something to lose. And lose it he did, in dramatic fashion.

The 2007 season will forever be the season the Patriots couldn't finish. Even with the rabid New York media, the Giants will always have to share the spotlight of this season with a team that won 18 straight and couldn't seal the deal in Glendale. For better or for worse, that is the burden of beating the Patriots THIS year. The Patriots still did something no team in NFL history has done, and Tom Brady, Randy Moss, and that offense set records not soon to be broken. Tom Brady already has three rings, and his Patriots place in history as an NFL dynasty was already solidified. Brady become the all-time Super Bowl leader in completions, passing some guy named Montana who I hear is pretty good. The 2007 New England Patriots are the best team not to win a Super Bowl and the one of only a handful of teams to go 18-1. Had the Giants lost, they would have slipped into oblivion.

The problem is, the Giants won. They went on the road and beat Tampa at Tampa, Dallas in Dallas, and Green Bay in Green Bay. That streak gave them 10 consecutive road wins, an NFL record, to cap perhaps the greatest run in history. For a game normally wrapped in hyperbole and cliche, the discussion over "best ____ ever" has to be had after this game, this season. The New York Football Giants certainly had nothing to lose as they were playing with house money. With a loss, the G-Men simply would have been the last highlights on another Patriots Super Bowl season DVD, something the Rams, Panthers, and Eagles all know about.

With a win, Eli Manning can play without the hounding pressure in the Meadowlands. Michael Strahan can retire on top, as one of the greatest rush ends in the modern era. Tom Coughlin completes a remarkable coaching job, banding together a team that had supposedly quit on him a season prior. New York is actually one of the youngest teams in the league and had they lost, would certainly have all the tools to give it a shot next year.

But what about Tiki and Shockey? This nonsense about this being a better team without Tiki Barber is ridiculous. Tiki Barber was not the problem on the Giants team, they simply didn't play consistent football, but Barber did. Regardless of the shots he took at Eli or Coughlin after the fact, Tiki Barber was and still would be the best player on that team. I can't agree with any logic that tells me the Giants are a better team without him.

The same can be said for Shockey. While it was unconscionable for him to be in a box that looked like they were having an early Mardi Gras party, Shockey makes the offense dynamic down the seam. Eli loves to look for Shockey on third down and he is still one of the premier play makers at the position. As far as Shockey as a distraction, he is still on the team. He went to practice, meetings, and walk-through's all season. Sure, you might think Shockey is a loser in general, this Super Bowl win is his gain because he makes them even better next year.

Boston fans, don't even think about it. You were not cheated, jilted, or wronged. You did not lose either. Your Red Sox won the World Series and you're still the best team in baseball. You have the most talented team in the Eastern Conference, and you have 3 Super Bowl W's in less than 10 years. I know about "the curse" and the plight of a Boston sports fan, but give me a break. You'll be back because you have superior talent evaluators and a proven blueprint. Sorry Patriots fans, but I think you'll manage.

One could make a case for advertising agencies here as the reported $2.7 million commercials left a great deal to be desired, we are still talking about how awful they were, so maybe it worked. That leaves the hoody. Bill, you cheated in week 1 against an inferior opponent and a former assistant coach. You then proceeded to downplay the event in public, and use as motivation for your team. You killed teams, went for it on fourth down up 20+, essentially telling the NFL you didn't care and to try and stop you. While piling up 18 straight, you were flippant with the media and alienated fans. Then, just days before the culmination of your perfect season, allegations over previous spying incidents come out. The Eagles suspected you had more information on their game then you should...now someone claims you had more information on the Rams than you should. With your villain status already intact, there was one thing you had to do: Win.

Had Bill Belichick won Super XLII, he would have been justified, now he's simply vilified. And he's earned it. The NFL has unwritten rules, codes and standards to which players and coaches are to adhere. Karma comes around quickly and the only way to avoid it is to win while you can. Bill Belichick took by far his best team to date to play in a game whose outcome was a foregone conclusion. Win, and the Spygate scandal, running up the score, the F U touchdowns, they would all melt away in the magic of 19-0. Lose, and look like cheaters, bullies, and choke-artists. Now Belichick have a chance to go the corner and think about what he's done. Maybe he'll play by the rules next time. Until then, he's simply a loser.