2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: New York Giants

Not since the last time the Giants won the Super Bowl has such a flawed team won the Lombardi trophy. The narrative was that the Super Bowl was won by the arm of Eli Manning, but the season was nearly torpedo's by that same limb.

New York wasn't a particularly dominant passing team in 2011, based mostly on the erratic play of its quarterback and an inconsistent running game.

New York lost to the Seahawks and the Redskins twice thanks to heinous play from Manning, but beat New England twice, Green Bay in Lambeau and San Francisco thanks in large part to the clutch plays made by Eli. 

As power continues to shift toward the NFC, the odds that New York can make another run in 2012 without making some changes seems particularly unlikely. 

Furthermore, New York will be picking much later in the draft than their record (9-7) dictates they should. The Giants are also right up against a tight salary cap. 

Defensively, the Giants regressed considerably last year and the running game will have to get better if the Giants have any chance of repeating. 

Offense

New York seemed to hit its stride in the postseason running the football after finishing last in the league during the regular season. Both Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs averaged better than 4 yards per carry, getting a combined 100 attempts in four games.

Manning and the Giants' trio of wide receivers took advantage with a huge postseason run. After throwing 16 interceptions in the regular season, Manning threw just 1 the entire postseason while also tossing 9 touchdowns while completing 65% of his passes.

Brandon Jacobs was released, Mario Manningham is not expected back, both of New York's top tight ends are recovering from ACL injuries and the offensive line needs work. An injection of young into the line and tight end could help both Manning and the running game. 

Key Free Agents: Mario Manningham WR, Kareem McKenzie OT  

Defense 

Don't be fooled into thinking New York's run this season was thanks to the defense either. It's just not true. The Giants pass rush can be devastating, but they managed just 11 sacks in 4 postseason games and were lackluster for most of the season, finishing 29th in the NFL against the pass, 27th in yards allowed and 25th in point allowed. 

That's hardly championship defense. The good news for the Giants is Jason Pierre-Paul is only going to get better and he's already one of the most singularly-dominant defensive talents in football. On the other hand, Football Outsiders ranks the Giants as the 10th best pass rushing team by efficiency last season and 20th against the run.

Furthermore, the secondary is vulnerable, not to mention fragile. Terrell Thomas missed all of last year with an ACL injury and will be a free agent this offseason. Aaron Ross played through injuries and 2010 1st round pick Prince Amukamara broke his foot, missing much of last season. 

New York's linebacker group is also nothing to write home about and benefits from playing behind such a solid defensive front. Two starters from that group will be free agents this summer and    

Key Free Agens: Terrell Thomas CB, Jonathan Goff LB, Chase Blackburn LB, Dave Tollefson DE, Aaron Ross CB

Draft Targets

Needs: OL,CB,TE,LB,RB,WR

Round 1 (Pick 32): Levonte David LB Nebraska (Pos. Rank 2, Overall Rank: 33)
David has been one of the more underrated prospects all year. He's athletic, instinctive and if he were a few pounds bigger, would probably be a lock for the first round. With the Giants linebacker situation in such flux, grabbing David at the end of the first would allow New York to take advantage of the depth in this draft at other positions of need.

Round 2 (Pick 64): Orson Charles TE Georgia  (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 59)
With no dependable tight end on the roster, the Giants have a chance to grab the most physically gifted of the tight ends in this year's class. Charles is the smooth athlete Beckham is, but still has much of the size and strength Ballard provides. Charles would be a perfect fit in this offense opening up the middle of the field for Nicks and Cruz.

Round 3 (Pick 95): Mike Brewster G/C Ohio State (Pos. Rank 3, Overall Rank: 99)
A little bit of a reach here, but New York struggled running the ball last year in part because the offensive line play regressed. All three interior starters along the front are over 30 and getting a smart, physical player from a big-time program could help provide some depth in the short term, as well as be a starter down the road.

Overall 
From a value standpoint and based on my rankings, this draft is a solid one for the Giants. Unfortunately for New York, some of the deepest positions in this draft aren't in areas of need. Still though, the above picks represent a net value of 0, a sum of the difference between where they were drafted and where they were ranked overall. For a well-balanced team coming off a Super Bowl win and picking last in most rounds, that's a pretty solid number while still addressing areas of need. 

Final Thought

Winning the NFC East next year will be even more difficult given the pressure on the Cowboys and Eagles to make serious noise or risk massive shake-ups to the organization. New York has an elite quarterback who can win you games, but will also melt down a handful of times a season. Getting better in the back end defensively and upfront offensively will go a long way to helping the Giants enter 2012 as front-runners for the NFC title. 

The Biggest Loser? How About the Only Loser

Nearly 100 million viewers watched the New York Giants upset the heavily favored and previously undefeated New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. A grizzly, sloppy game until the fourth quarter, the finish was nothing short of spectacular. When the gun sounded Eli Manning was the MVP and Bill Belichick was leaving the field with his pride...well except for the red hoody.

As I watched Mr. Spygate trudge towards Tom Coughlin and offer a hug that ranks in awkwardness to the handshake with Eric Mangini, I realized he was the only person with something to lose. And lose it he did, in dramatic fashion.

The 2007 season will forever be the season the Patriots couldn't finish. Even with the rabid New York media, the Giants will always have to share the spotlight of this season with a team that won 18 straight and couldn't seal the deal in Glendale. For better or for worse, that is the burden of beating the Patriots THIS year. The Patriots still did something no team in NFL history has done, and Tom Brady, Randy Moss, and that offense set records not soon to be broken. Tom Brady already has three rings, and his Patriots place in history as an NFL dynasty was already solidified. Brady become the all-time Super Bowl leader in completions, passing some guy named Montana who I hear is pretty good. The 2007 New England Patriots are the best team not to win a Super Bowl and the one of only a handful of teams to go 18-1. Had the Giants lost, they would have slipped into oblivion.

The problem is, the Giants won. They went on the road and beat Tampa at Tampa, Dallas in Dallas, and Green Bay in Green Bay. That streak gave them 10 consecutive road wins, an NFL record, to cap perhaps the greatest run in history. For a game normally wrapped in hyperbole and cliche, the discussion over "best ____ ever" has to be had after this game, this season. The New York Football Giants certainly had nothing to lose as they were playing with house money. With a loss, the G-Men simply would have been the last highlights on another Patriots Super Bowl season DVD, something the Rams, Panthers, and Eagles all know about.

With a win, Eli Manning can play without the hounding pressure in the Meadowlands. Michael Strahan can retire on top, as one of the greatest rush ends in the modern era. Tom Coughlin completes a remarkable coaching job, banding together a team that had supposedly quit on him a season prior. New York is actually one of the youngest teams in the league and had they lost, would certainly have all the tools to give it a shot next year.

But what about Tiki and Shockey? This nonsense about this being a better team without Tiki Barber is ridiculous. Tiki Barber was not the problem on the Giants team, they simply didn't play consistent football, but Barber did. Regardless of the shots he took at Eli or Coughlin after the fact, Tiki Barber was and still would be the best player on that team. I can't agree with any logic that tells me the Giants are a better team without him.

The same can be said for Shockey. While it was unconscionable for him to be in a box that looked like they were having an early Mardi Gras party, Shockey makes the offense dynamic down the seam. Eli loves to look for Shockey on third down and he is still one of the premier play makers at the position. As far as Shockey as a distraction, he is still on the team. He went to practice, meetings, and walk-through's all season. Sure, you might think Shockey is a loser in general, this Super Bowl win is his gain because he makes them even better next year.

Boston fans, don't even think about it. You were not cheated, jilted, or wronged. You did not lose either. Your Red Sox won the World Series and you're still the best team in baseball. You have the most talented team in the Eastern Conference, and you have 3 Super Bowl W's in less than 10 years. I know about "the curse" and the plight of a Boston sports fan, but give me a break. You'll be back because you have superior talent evaluators and a proven blueprint. Sorry Patriots fans, but I think you'll manage.

One could make a case for advertising agencies here as the reported $2.7 million commercials left a great deal to be desired, we are still talking about how awful they were, so maybe it worked. That leaves the hoody. Bill, you cheated in week 1 against an inferior opponent and a former assistant coach. You then proceeded to downplay the event in public, and use as motivation for your team. You killed teams, went for it on fourth down up 20+, essentially telling the NFL you didn't care and to try and stop you. While piling up 18 straight, you were flippant with the media and alienated fans. Then, just days before the culmination of your perfect season, allegations over previous spying incidents come out. The Eagles suspected you had more information on their game then you should...now someone claims you had more information on the Rams than you should. With your villain status already intact, there was one thing you had to do: Win.

Had Bill Belichick won Super XLII, he would have been justified, now he's simply vilified. And he's earned it. The NFL has unwritten rules, codes and standards to which players and coaches are to adhere. Karma comes around quickly and the only way to avoid it is to win while you can. Bill Belichick took by far his best team to date to play in a game whose outcome was a foregone conclusion. Win, and the Spygate scandal, running up the score, the F U touchdowns, they would all melt away in the magic of 19-0. Lose, and look like cheaters, bullies, and choke-artists. Now Belichick have a chance to go the corner and think about what he's done. Maybe he'll play by the rules next time. Until then, he's simply a loser.