2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Cleveland Browns

Watching this team last year, it was hard to understand how they had four wins. I mean that in a good way...and in a bad way.

There were games where the Browns played extremely well and still lost (the Steelers game is a good example), and others where they didn't play so well and won.

Offensively, this was probably the worst team in football last year, finishing 30th in points 29th in yards and no higher than 24th in any major category.

Defensively, it was the exact opposite as the Browns finished 5th in points allowed, 10th in total yards and 2nd in passing yards.

Those are incredible stats when you consider Cleveland  finished third to last in the league against the run. Part of the problem there was they were losing so often late in games that teams were constantly running in the fourth quarter to protect leads.

On the other hand, it would be easy to argue that with some offensive upgrades, this defense is good enough to keep them in games and account for a few more wins.

That means starting with the quarterback. Can Colt McCoy play? It seems like McCoy isn't truly the problem in Cleveland, but rather that they have no pieces around him.

If he were in a situation like Cam Newton with guys like Steve Smith, Greg Olsen, Johnathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams around him and they couldn't score, then you could look at the young quarterback and just flatly dismiss his abilities.

Unfortunately, the Browns don't know whether or not McCoy is any good because they haven't put in a position to succeed with talent around him.

Cleveland may take a quarterback high in this draft, but McCoy will get one more chance to show some potential this year and the Browns are going to spend high draft choices on impact offensive players to give him a better shot.

Offense
Free agency took some familiar faces from this Cleveland roster, some for the better. Peyton Hillis had become public enemy #1 for Cleveland fans after throwing a tantrum most of the season about his contract, appearing to fake injuries, and playing terribly once he was actually on the field.

The loss of Artis Hicks, Steve Vallos and Eric Steinbach, on the other hand, hurt considerably more. When you have a young quarterback and below average receivers, you better at least have a quality line to give your quarterback time to throw. Without some help in the draft and/or free agency, this looks like a leaky group.

Obviously, the biggest need on this team is at the skill positions. There's no running back, tight end or receiver on this team who opponents must account for. It's unarguably the worst group in the league and for Colt McCoy to have any chance to win games, they must improve there.

Luckily, the Browns have two first round picks to address those positions in a draft with quality depth at wide receiver and running back.

Cleveland is apparently very high on Brandon Weeden despite his age and would consider him in the second round. That seems like a strange choice given that Cleveland lacks so many pieces, it wouldn't have a decent team until Weeden was at least 30.

Key Free Agents: Oniel Cousins OT (re-signed w/ Browns), Artis Hicks OT (signed w/ Dolphins), Peyton Hillis RB (signed w/ Chiefs), Jordan Norwood WR (re-signed w/ Browns), Alex Smith TE (re-signed w/ Browns), Eric Steinbach G, Steve Vallos OT (signed w/ Eagles), 

Defense
Cleveland's defense was surprisingly effective last year, despite lacking big-name players. Joe Haden has developed into one of the best corners in the game and D'Qwell Jackson is perhaps the most underrated defensive player in the league.

Juqua Parker and Frostee Rucker were signed to bolster this defensive line, although rookie Jabaal Sheard was extremely productive, notching 8.5 sacks and forcing 5 fumbles. This teams does need help from the defensive line to get stops in the run game, so getting Parker and Rucker should improve the overall strength of the group.

There are some deficiencies at linebacker outside of Jackson and while this isn't a particularly deep draft at outside linebacker, I wouldn't be surprised to see a middle round pick used to get some depth there.

The Browns can certainly rely on this defense to consistently keep them in games because the Browns faced some of the best offenses in the league last year and stood up to all of them. There is some good, young talent on the defense. If only the offense could say the same.

Key Free Agents: Mike Adams S (signed w/ Broncos), Jayme Mitchell DE, Dimitri Patterson CB (re-signed w/ Browns), Brian Schaefering NT (re-signed w/ Browns), DeAngelo Smith DB (signed w/ Jets), 

Draft Targets

Needs: WR,OL,S,RB,QB,OLB
Round 1 (Pick 4): Trent Richardson RB Alabama (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 3)

If the Vikings pick Khalil - the conventional wisdom for most of the offseason - then the Browns will have to pick between the best running back and the best receiver in the draft. If Minnesota, for some reason, passes, as has been reported they might, then suddenly the Browns could be looking at one of the best young sets of offensive tackles we've seen in a long time. Even so, if you look at value, Richardson is now widely considered the third best player in the draft and plays a position of need for the Browns. He's the best running back prospect in the last 10 years not named Adrian Peterson and is a perfect fit in a city like Cleveland as a tough, physical, bulldozing runner. I'm wary of being too sold on Richardson to the Browns here given Mike Holmgren's history with the West Coast offense and the way he de-values running backs. I won't be surprised if Justin Blackmon ends up being the pick here. 

Rount 1 (Pick 22 F/ Falcons) Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 18)
While I don't think this will happen, I think it should. There's no way Tannehill belongs in the top 25, much less the top 5 like has been discussed. On potential, you can justify him here at #22 but much higher, I don't see it. It sounds like the Browns have cooled on the idea of Tannehill at 4, which makes the most likely landing spot now #8 to the Dolphins with the owner making a late push for the A&M signall-caller. Tannehill has great athletic talent, but isn't an accurate thrower, nor does he have outstanding arm strength. As a leader, I think he's terrific, but look at the big games he's played in college and you'll see he was a big reason why his team lost those games more frequently than they won them. That's not a trait I want in my franchise quarterback.

Round 2 (Pick 36): Kevin Zeitler G Wisconsin (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 39)
Cleveland already has an all-pro former Badger offensive lineman and regardless of which skill position player you take at #4, the offensive line has to get better. Zeitler is one of the safest picks in the draft, a sure-fire 10 year pro who will always execute. His ceiling isn't as high as some of the other lineman in this draft, but Mike Holmgren likes guys with a history of success and no one has been more successful at his craft than Zeitler. If they go Khalil or Blackmon at the top of the first, a running back like David Wilson or a pass rusher like Andre Branch could be a fit here as well, but if they are going to try and make the Colt McCoy experiment a success, they have to improve the pieces around him, and offensive line is a huge problem right now.

Round 3 (Pick 68): Joe Adams WR Arkansas (Pos. Rank: 9, Overall Rank: 70)

There is some potential in the Cleveland receiving group, but no one special or elite. Adams would continue that trend, but at least has the kind of specialized skill set as a slot receiver to be effective. Greg Little showed some flashes last year and getting a receiver in the slot to work against nickel corners could open up the field for the other players on this team. He's also the kind of player who can get deep off play action with a guy like Richardson in the backfield. Noticeably absent from any of these picks is a quarterback. I do think the Browns take one by this pick, but I'm not convinced there will be good value in it, that's why I don't have it here. My final mock likely will have them taking Brandon Weeden in the second round, but if Brock Osweiler or Kirk Cousins falls to them here, he could be a consideration as well. 

Overall

Richardson or Blackmon will almost certainly be the pick at #4 and immediately brings an impact player to an offense without one. I like either pick, although I think Richardson does seem somewhat more likely. I'd be on board if Tannehill did fall to the Browns at 22 (he won't), but there will likely be a quality receiver like Kendall Wright, which makes Richardson all the more valuable at #4. Zeitler would be a Day 1 starter for the Browns even if the value isn't exactly where you'd like it. That being said, he's a first round player on plenty of team's boards and I don't think it qualifies as a reach there. I expect to see plenty of skill position players in this class for the Browns, so don't be surprised to see multiple receivers taken, which makes Adams a solid pick in the third round.

Final Thought
If your looking for a team who could wind up in the Matt Barkley sweepstakes (we'll have to come up with a phrase like "Suck for Luck,"), the Browns are a good bet. Cincinnati will be better, Baltimore and Pittsburgh are Super Bowl contenders and the Browns just aren't very good. Even getting a guy like Richardson and solidifying some of the skill positions won't be enough to compete for the division title. That's even more reason not to get reach for a guy like Brandon Weeden because next year you could have  Barkley or Landry Jones, both of whom would be rated above Weeden and both much younger. Cleveland must understand what they are doing and that they need to build through young talent. Maximize these early picks along with the likely ones next year and the Browns may finally have the foundation to bring a playoff team back to Cleveland. 

2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Miami Dolphins

It almost seems irrelevant to talk about the 2012 Miami Dolphins through the lens of last year's team because the two will hardly resemble one another. 

Tony Sparano's ground and pound ideals will be replaced with a more open passing offense under former Packers coach Joe Philbin.

The old 3-4 defense will be replaced with the more traditional 4-3 system under long-time former defensive backs coach Kevin Coyle.

Changing defenses is considerably more surprising considering the Dolphins' strength last year was its physical defense.

After starting the year 0-7, the Dolphins finished 6-3, thanks mostly to the superior play of that defense.

That being said, this is an offensively-challenged team and although Matt Moore was decent last year, David Garrard was signed to compete for the job and whispers have grown to shouts about the Dolphins drafting Ryan Tannehill.

You'd expect the Dolphins to draft a quarterback early, but they'll have to decide what kind of price they're willing to pay in order to get him.

Despite having a top 10 defense last year, there are some concerns in the secondary and finding a pass rusher opposite Cameron Wake, particularly in this new defense will be paramount.


Offense
This offensive line could use an overhaul. Outside of Jake Long, there isn't a lot to work with here and new offensive coordinator Mike Sherman, a former offensive line coach, knows the value of winning up front.

Artis Hicks, signed from the Browns, is a veteran offensive lineman, but is long in the tooth and isn't a long-term solution there.

Getting an offensive lineman or two in the draft will be a top priority.

Receiver is another major concern with the Dolphins trading Brandon Marshall to the Bears without much left beyond him. Legedu Naanee was signed to pick up some of the slack, but much like Hicks, Naanee isn't going to write any headlines with his play.

Adding another wide receiver could help whomever will be under center for the Dolphins.

The quarterback situation is the hardest to peg. Ryan Tannehill didn't even play quarterback for his whole time under Mike Sherman and whether or not Sherman can convince Philbin or Dolphin management that Tannehill is the guy remains to be seen.

If Tannehill makes it to the eighth pick, he'll be hard to pass, but there are enough holes on this team and enough quality quarterbacks in this draft to wait until the second or third round to get their young quarterback.

I have a feeling Philbin, having seen the success of Ted Thompson, will push to wait on a quarterback until the value is right. Whether or not he wins out, we'll find out on draft day.

Key Free Agents: Vernon Carey G, Marc Colombo OT, Chad Henne (signed w/ Jaguars), J.P. Losman QB, Lydon Murtha OT (re-signed w/ Dolphins), Chad Pennington QB, Steve Slaton RB (re-signed w/ Dolphins)

Defense
Part of the legacy Sparano will leave in Miami is the physicality his team played with on both sides of the ball. There wasn't a tremendous talent pool on this front, but they finished 3rd in the league against the run.

When you consider Miami finished 25th in the league against the pass, but still managed to wind up 6th in points, this group played adversity defense on a high level.


Jamaal Westerman was signed from the Jets, and Gary Guyton from the Patriots to bolster this linebacker group.

Guyton becomes the presumptive starter in the middle with Westerman fighting for an outside linebacker spot opposite Carlos Dansby.

To boost the secondary, Richard Marshall was signed from the Cardinals, as was Tyrell Johnson from the Vikings. Both could be starters for this team.

There are some young players on the defensive line who do have some potential. They don't have a true 4-3 end on the team, but Wake is an elite-level pass rusher and should be effective no matter where they line him up.

Getting another end and creating more pressure will be an important step to compete in the AFC East.

Key Free Agents: Ikaika Alama-Francis LB, Will Allen FS (signed w/ Patriots), Ryan Baker DE (signed w/ Dolphins), Yeremiah Bell S, Kendall Langford DE (signed w/ Rams), Phillip Merling DT (re-signed w/ Dolphins), Igor Olshansky DT, Paul Soliai NT ( re-signed w/ Dolphins),

Draft Targets

Needs: OL,QB,WR,LB,TE,S
Round 1 (Pick 8): David DeCastro G Stanford (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 9)

I have a feeling that a team other than Miami will trade up for Tannehill. Cleveland could certainly take him at #4. Either way, DeCastro is the second-best lineman in this draft and is the kind of guy who could be a 10 year starter on this team along side Jake Long. He's extremely smart (the guy went to Stanford). DeCastro is equally adept in the run and passing game and uses his excellent blend of power and quickness to wall defenders. He can improve his technique using his hands, but he's not going to get out-worked or out-hustled in the NFL and he has a chance to be a Pro Bowl guard for the Dolphins.

Round 2 (Pick 42): Rueben Randle WR LSU (Pos. Rank: 6, Overall Rank: 43)

If Kirk Cousins is rated ahead of Brandon Weedon on Miami's board, I can see him being the pick here. If I'm the Dolphins, I'd much rather get a top-tier talent in the first round than reach for a second round talent (Tannehill), when I can get a second round talent (and this may shock you) in the second round. If Cousins isn't the pick, expect a receiver. Randle has the big body the departed Marshall did, but is much more athletic and ran sub 4.4 at his pro day. It's tough to know just how good Randle is because he's never played with a quality quarterback, nor has he played in a pro style passing offense. The physical talents are there though and he has a chance to be a big-time sleeper in this draft.

Round 3 (Pick 72): Brock Osweiler QB Arizona State (Pos. Rank: 6, Overall Rank: 64)

To me, there isn't much difference between Osweiler and Tannehill in terms of having the potential to be good without being a finished product. If you think about it, Tannehill would have been ranked behind Matt Barkley and Landry Jones had those two declared. Tannehill is second-round prospect. Osweiler has a better natural feel for the position and has better accuracy. His ability to read defenses is a work in progress and he will stare down his reads occasionally. He didn't play with great playmakers around him at Arizona State, especially compared to Tannehill and with time to learn, Osweiler has a high ceiling with his big frame and underrated athletic talents.

  Round 3 (Pick 73 F/ Bears): Bruce Irvin OLB West Virginia (Pos. Rank: 5, Overall Rank: 71)

With Wake coming off one edge, having Irvin coming off the other would create serious match-up problems for opposing offenses.Irvin would be undersized playing end in the 4-3 and would have to move to linebacker, but has the speed and quickness to play well in space. Whether or not he has the instincts will only be known if and when he has the chance to play there. The Dolphins could use him much like Von Miller in Denver. In passing situations, Irvin could play end and then play linebacker on first or second down. Irvin would give them tremendous versatility and would allow them to be creative with personnel, even potentially keeping some of the 3-4 looks that were so good for this defense last year.
 
Overall

I hope, for the Dolphins sake, they wait on finding a quarterback until the value makes more sense. There are two Day 1 starters in this draft, the potential quarterback of the future, and a future starter at linebacker. Randle, Osweiler and Irvin are all projects of sorts, but have some of the highest ceilings of any player at their respective positions in the 2012 class. A draft like this would give new coach Joe Philbin a slew of young, talented players to develop. If Philbin is anything like his former boss, Mike McCarthy, Philbin will want to get his guy and work with him. Whether or not it's Osweiler, we won't know until next week, but Miami certainly will get someone to develop at that position.

Final Thought
Even if the Dolphins go with a quarterback early, David Garrard or Matt Moore will, in all likelihood, be the opening day starter. Whether or not they finish the season may rest with how well the Dolphins play. Can they keep the momentum from last year's finish moving forward? With so many changes in personnel and with the coaching staff, it's hard to imagine they can. Just like it is with any new coach, the first draft is always the most important because it lays the foundation for this team moving forward. I can't see them mortgaging their future for a guy like Tannehill,  but I've been wrong before. 

By the Numbers: Comparing Elite NFL Quarterbacks to 2012 Draft Prospects

Using statistics to project athletes from college to the pros would make a scout's job much easier. Over the years, writers like John Hollinger have come up with formulas to take college basketball players and predict what kind of NBA players they might make.

It's an inexact science to be sure and there is no silver bullet, or scouts would already be using it.

Trying to the do the same with NFL players proves much more difficult because the college and NFL systems a player is in can make a significantly greater difference in football than it does in basketball.

I broke down the top 10 quarterbacks in the NFL this season by different statistical categories. Often, writers will want to use historical context, but given the constant flux of the pro game, using the most up to date information we can provides us the most relevant information.

Given the inherent flaws of gross statistics and even some efficiency statistics, I used QB Rating to pick a "Top 10" for comparison purposes.The following are the Top 10 QB's career college numbers.

Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp % TD:Int YPA Aaron Rodgers  424 656 5,469 43 13 64.70% 3.3:1 8.33 Drew Brees 1026 1628 11,792 90 44 63.00% 2.0:1 7.24 Tom Brady 443 711 5,351 35 19 62.31% 1.8:1 7.52 Tony Romo 560 892 7,816 82 34 62.78% 2.4:1 8.76 Matthew Stafford 564 987 7,731 51 33 57.14% 1.54:1 7.83 Matt Schaub 716 1069 7,502 56 26 66.97% 1.69:1 7.02 Eli Manning 829 1363 10,119 81 34 60.82% 2.38:1 7.42 Matt Ryan 807 1347 9,313 56 37 59.91% 1.51:1 6.91 Alex Smith 389 587 5,203 47 8 66.27% 5.86:1 8.86 Ben Roethlisberger 854 1304 10,829 84 34 65.49% 2.47:1 8.30 Averages 661.2 1054 8,112.50 62.5 28.2 62.68% 2.21:1 7.69

A brief look at the numbers and you'll see Alex Smith is actually the most impressive statistical player on this list. Tom Brady is particularly underwhelming and Ben Roethlisberger is perhaps the most accomplished overall. One of the important lessons of Alex Smith appears to be that without a sufficient sample size, we tend to lose the reliability of these numbers. Smith was wonderfully efficient against mid-major talent and threw by far the fewest passes on this list as the quarterback at Utah. Smith's success this year, however, illustrates my first point about the necessity to put a player in the proper system to succeed. The statistical proficiency of the quarterbacks in college systems vary, but completion percentage and yards per attempt seem like translatable talents as does the ability to score versus the propensity to turn the ball over (TD:INT). In other words, quarterbacks who can't complete high percentages in college, won't change much in the pros. Furthermore, dink and dunk college quarterbacks will be the same game managers in the NFL. Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp % TD:Int YPA Andrew Luck 686 1033 9083 80 21 66.41% 3.81:1 8.79 Robert Griffin III 776 1159 10,071 77 17 66.95% 4.53:1 8.69 Landry Jones 1005 1603 12,218 92 40 62.79% 2.3:1 7.62 Ryan Tannehill 452 725 5,053 41 20 62.34% 2.05:1 6.97 Nick Foles 938 1403 10,068 67 33 66.86% 2.03:1 7.17 Brandon Weeden 737 1060 8,861 72 26 69.53% 2.77:1 8.36 Kirk Cousins 696 1078 8,831 65 27 64.56% 2.41:1 8.19 Ryan Lindley 933 1683 12,277 87 47 55.44% 1.85:1 7.29 Kellen Moore 1131 1624 14,374 140 26 69.64% 5.38:1 8.85 Russell Wilson 888 1464 11,424 107 20 60.66% 5.35:1 7.8

These are the top 10 prospects entering the 2012 NFL Draft at this point. Landry Jones says he hasn't made a decision, but we'll include him for perspective purposes. Right away Andrew Luck and Robbert Griffin III jump off the page. Their efficiency and overall production are well above our composite average from above.Does that mean they'll necessarily be top-level NFL quarterbacks? Of course not. They need the right coach, right system and right players around them. On the other hand, the reliable indicators like completion percentage and YPA appear to be part Luck and RG3's already impressive resume.

Using statistics to reenforce what we see with our eyes is the best way to use statistics when it comes to their predictive powers. If we thought Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin would be excellent NFL quarterbacks and what we found was startlingly below average, it might give us pause.

Looking at the list above, Ryan Tannehill and Nick Foles both seem overrated based on their rankings. The two are big, strong quarterbacks who play on mediocre teams. Neither has a pedigree as big-time winners, nor have they had marquee games to prove their abilities.

That being said, both are well below average when it comes to production, particularly in TD:Int ratio and YPA.

Tannehill is only a two-year starter while Foles has more experience (making his lack of success even more frustrating).

Basically, they are what they are at this point.

Based on the numbers above, he doesn't belong above Brandon Weeden or even Kirk Cousins when it comes to translatable NFL skills like accuracy and driving the ball down the field.

Speaking of Weeden, the Oklahoma State prospect does appear underranked based on these numbers. An interesting doppelganger emerges when you look at these numbers side by side.

	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp %	TD:Int	YPA
Ben Roethlisberger	854	1304	10,829	84	34	65.49%	2.47:1	8.3
Brandon Weeden	737	1060	8,861	72	26	69.53%	2.77:1	8.36

If you take into account the talent-level difference between the Big 12 and the MAC, the two are very similar.

Both are tall, lanky quarterbacks who slide step and move in the pocket to create plays. Weeden, at 28 years-old, doesn't have a ton of upside, but has the experience and maturity that could follow a similar path to Big Ben's with Pittsburgh as he lead them to the playoffs as a rookie.

If I needed a quarterback for the next 10 years, perhaps Tannehill makes more sense because of age and upside, but if I'm an 8-8 team like the Seahawks or a 7-9 team like the Chiefs who may just be a quarterback away from the playoffs next year, I would like Weeden's chances to play right away.

When it comes to interesting similarities though, there is a somewhat shocking pair.

	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp %	TD:Int	YPA
Drew Brees	1026	1628	11,792	90	44	63.00%	2.0:1	7.24
Landry Jones	1005	1603	12,218	92	40	62.79%	2.3:1	7.62

Jones, of course, has put up these numbers as a standing junior. Brees was a senior when he left for the NFL with these Big-10 leading stats.

Oklahoma's signal-caller is more physically gifted, with a bigger frame and stronger arm than Brees. Jones isn't as pinpoint accurate as Brees, but even Brees in San Diego wasn't as accurate or efficient as Brees in New Orleans.

Oklahoma's recent list of NFL quarterbacks isn't exactly a who's who of All-Pro's, but Jones was basically unstoppable with Ryan Broyles before Broyles tore up his knee. Jones is certainly better as a prospect than Blaine Gabbert and there was some discussion he'd the #1 pick last year.

Jones, as a thrower, has as much natural ability as any quarterback in this class and while Griffin put up most of his numbers for middling teams (until this year), Jones has been playing in big games all three years in Norman.

Some uneven play this season has dropped Jones' stock, but he has considered a top 10 pick before the season began.

If we re-ordred the top 10 list based on these numbers it would look more like this:

1.) Andrew Luck
2.) Robert Griffin III
3.) Landry Jones
4.) Brandon Weeden
5.) Kirk Cousins
6.) Nick Foles
7.) Ryan Tannehill
8.) Kellen Moore
9.) Russell Wilson
10.) Ryan Lindley

Lindley couldn't break 60% completing passes in the Mountain West Conference, dropping him down the board and both Moore and Wilson just aren't big enough to rank any higher.

It is interesting to note though, both would be a few spots higher if they were a few inches taller, particularly Moore who has bar far the most impressive stats on the list.

I'm not a fan of expecting dramatic improvement out of players (e.g. Tannehill has to actually show me he can do it before I'll buy that he can), although, we do see guys like Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford outperform their college careers.

College numbers don't tell the whole story, but they do expose important flaws to potential teams.