2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Cleveland Browns

Watching this team last year, it was hard to understand how they had four wins. I mean that in a good way...and in a bad way.

There were games where the Browns played extremely well and still lost (the Steelers game is a good example), and others where they didn't play so well and won.

Offensively, this was probably the worst team in football last year, finishing 30th in points 29th in yards and no higher than 24th in any major category.

Defensively, it was the exact opposite as the Browns finished 5th in points allowed, 10th in total yards and 2nd in passing yards.

Those are incredible stats when you consider Cleveland  finished third to last in the league against the run. Part of the problem there was they were losing so often late in games that teams were constantly running in the fourth quarter to protect leads.

On the other hand, it would be easy to argue that with some offensive upgrades, this defense is good enough to keep them in games and account for a few more wins.

That means starting with the quarterback. Can Colt McCoy play? It seems like McCoy isn't truly the problem in Cleveland, but rather that they have no pieces around him.

If he were in a situation like Cam Newton with guys like Steve Smith, Greg Olsen, Johnathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams around him and they couldn't score, then you could look at the young quarterback and just flatly dismiss his abilities.

Unfortunately, the Browns don't know whether or not McCoy is any good because they haven't put in a position to succeed with talent around him.

Cleveland may take a quarterback high in this draft, but McCoy will get one more chance to show some potential this year and the Browns are going to spend high draft choices on impact offensive players to give him a better shot.

Offense
Free agency took some familiar faces from this Cleveland roster, some for the better. Peyton Hillis had become public enemy #1 for Cleveland fans after throwing a tantrum most of the season about his contract, appearing to fake injuries, and playing terribly once he was actually on the field.

The loss of Artis Hicks, Steve Vallos and Eric Steinbach, on the other hand, hurt considerably more. When you have a young quarterback and below average receivers, you better at least have a quality line to give your quarterback time to throw. Without some help in the draft and/or free agency, this looks like a leaky group.

Obviously, the biggest need on this team is at the skill positions. There's no running back, tight end or receiver on this team who opponents must account for. It's unarguably the worst group in the league and for Colt McCoy to have any chance to win games, they must improve there.

Luckily, the Browns have two first round picks to address those positions in a draft with quality depth at wide receiver and running back.

Cleveland is apparently very high on Brandon Weeden despite his age and would consider him in the second round. That seems like a strange choice given that Cleveland lacks so many pieces, it wouldn't have a decent team until Weeden was at least 30.

Key Free Agents: Oniel Cousins OT (re-signed w/ Browns), Artis Hicks OT (signed w/ Dolphins), Peyton Hillis RB (signed w/ Chiefs), Jordan Norwood WR (re-signed w/ Browns), Alex Smith TE (re-signed w/ Browns), Eric Steinbach G, Steve Vallos OT (signed w/ Eagles), 

Defense
Cleveland's defense was surprisingly effective last year, despite lacking big-name players. Joe Haden has developed into one of the best corners in the game and D'Qwell Jackson is perhaps the most underrated defensive player in the league.

Juqua Parker and Frostee Rucker were signed to bolster this defensive line, although rookie Jabaal Sheard was extremely productive, notching 8.5 sacks and forcing 5 fumbles. This teams does need help from the defensive line to get stops in the run game, so getting Parker and Rucker should improve the overall strength of the group.

There are some deficiencies at linebacker outside of Jackson and while this isn't a particularly deep draft at outside linebacker, I wouldn't be surprised to see a middle round pick used to get some depth there.

The Browns can certainly rely on this defense to consistently keep them in games because the Browns faced some of the best offenses in the league last year and stood up to all of them. There is some good, young talent on the defense. If only the offense could say the same.

Key Free Agents: Mike Adams S (signed w/ Broncos), Jayme Mitchell DE, Dimitri Patterson CB (re-signed w/ Browns), Brian Schaefering NT (re-signed w/ Browns), DeAngelo Smith DB (signed w/ Jets), 

Draft Targets

Needs: WR,OL,S,RB,QB,OLB
Round 1 (Pick 4): Trent Richardson RB Alabama (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 3)

If the Vikings pick Khalil - the conventional wisdom for most of the offseason - then the Browns will have to pick between the best running back and the best receiver in the draft. If Minnesota, for some reason, passes, as has been reported they might, then suddenly the Browns could be looking at one of the best young sets of offensive tackles we've seen in a long time. Even so, if you look at value, Richardson is now widely considered the third best player in the draft and plays a position of need for the Browns. He's the best running back prospect in the last 10 years not named Adrian Peterson and is a perfect fit in a city like Cleveland as a tough, physical, bulldozing runner. I'm wary of being too sold on Richardson to the Browns here given Mike Holmgren's history with the West Coast offense and the way he de-values running backs. I won't be surprised if Justin Blackmon ends up being the pick here. 

Rount 1 (Pick 22 F/ Falcons) Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 18)
While I don't think this will happen, I think it should. There's no way Tannehill belongs in the top 25, much less the top 5 like has been discussed. On potential, you can justify him here at #22 but much higher, I don't see it. It sounds like the Browns have cooled on the idea of Tannehill at 4, which makes the most likely landing spot now #8 to the Dolphins with the owner making a late push for the A&M signall-caller. Tannehill has great athletic talent, but isn't an accurate thrower, nor does he have outstanding arm strength. As a leader, I think he's terrific, but look at the big games he's played in college and you'll see he was a big reason why his team lost those games more frequently than they won them. That's not a trait I want in my franchise quarterback.

Round 2 (Pick 36): Kevin Zeitler G Wisconsin (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 39)
Cleveland already has an all-pro former Badger offensive lineman and regardless of which skill position player you take at #4, the offensive line has to get better. Zeitler is one of the safest picks in the draft, a sure-fire 10 year pro who will always execute. His ceiling isn't as high as some of the other lineman in this draft, but Mike Holmgren likes guys with a history of success and no one has been more successful at his craft than Zeitler. If they go Khalil or Blackmon at the top of the first, a running back like David Wilson or a pass rusher like Andre Branch could be a fit here as well, but if they are going to try and make the Colt McCoy experiment a success, they have to improve the pieces around him, and offensive line is a huge problem right now.

Round 3 (Pick 68): Joe Adams WR Arkansas (Pos. Rank: 9, Overall Rank: 70)

There is some potential in the Cleveland receiving group, but no one special or elite. Adams would continue that trend, but at least has the kind of specialized skill set as a slot receiver to be effective. Greg Little showed some flashes last year and getting a receiver in the slot to work against nickel corners could open up the field for the other players on this team. He's also the kind of player who can get deep off play action with a guy like Richardson in the backfield. Noticeably absent from any of these picks is a quarterback. I do think the Browns take one by this pick, but I'm not convinced there will be good value in it, that's why I don't have it here. My final mock likely will have them taking Brandon Weeden in the second round, but if Brock Osweiler or Kirk Cousins falls to them here, he could be a consideration as well. 

Overall

Richardson or Blackmon will almost certainly be the pick at #4 and immediately brings an impact player to an offense without one. I like either pick, although I think Richardson does seem somewhat more likely. I'd be on board if Tannehill did fall to the Browns at 22 (he won't), but there will likely be a quality receiver like Kendall Wright, which makes Richardson all the more valuable at #4. Zeitler would be a Day 1 starter for the Browns even if the value isn't exactly where you'd like it. That being said, he's a first round player on plenty of team's boards and I don't think it qualifies as a reach there. I expect to see plenty of skill position players in this class for the Browns, so don't be surprised to see multiple receivers taken, which makes Adams a solid pick in the third round.

Final Thought
If your looking for a team who could wind up in the Matt Barkley sweepstakes (we'll have to come up with a phrase like "Suck for Luck,"), the Browns are a good bet. Cincinnati will be better, Baltimore and Pittsburgh are Super Bowl contenders and the Browns just aren't very good. Even getting a guy like Richardson and solidifying some of the skill positions won't be enough to compete for the division title. That's even more reason not to get reach for a guy like Brandon Weeden because next year you could have  Barkley or Landry Jones, both of whom would be rated above Weeden and both much younger. Cleveland must understand what they are doing and that they need to build through young talent. Maximize these early picks along with the likely ones next year and the Browns may finally have the foundation to bring a playoff team back to Cleveland. 

2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Cincinnati Bengals

From one of the worst franchises in sports to one of the best young teams in the NFL. That's the arc the Bengals have taken during the tenure of Marvin Lewis, with a brief respite of respectability when Carson Palmer had full, working ligaments in both knees and his top receiver still had a real last name.

Cincinnati surprised just about everyone last season by going from a cellar-dweller to a playoff participant with a rookie quarterback.

Andy Dalton wasn't as dynamic as Cam Newton, but Dalton won nine games and got his team into the playoffs.

Having one of the best young receivers in the game in A.J. Green certainly helped. Green is a rising superstar in this league, a tall, long receiver who can go across the middle or burn you down the sidelines.

Defensively, the Bengals were a top 10 team last year as well, despite losing a number of starters to injury and Johnathan Joseph, their starting corner, to free agency.

Without changing a thing, this team could win 10 games next year even in an extremely tough division. The young, ultra-talented core will have the chance to mature, plus a pair of first round picks means this team will add even more pieces.

Cincinnati may finally have the team to shed the 'Bungles' nickname for good.
 
Offense
The Bengals already addressed their most glaring offensive need by signing Patriots running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis. While not a stud back, Green-Ellis is steady and solid, certainly capable of replacing what they lost with Cedric Benson.

Getting better on the interior of the line should be a priority with Nate Livings signing in Dallas as a free agent. The middle of the line isn't nearly as strong as the tackles and an upgrade there could also boost the running game.

The aforementioned Green and tight end Jermaine Gresham form a formidable duo, but losing Andre Caldwell depletes the group around them and getting a slot receiver would make Green and Gresham that much harder to stop.

Another tight end could also help in both the run game and receiving game, particularly with the kind of athletes this draft has at that position.

I do expect the Bengals to use one of their first three picks on a receiver, which could make this offense much more consistent.

Key Free Agents: Cedric Benson  RB, Andre Caldwell WR (signed w/ Broncos), Anthony Collins OT (re-signed w/ Bengals), Donald Lee TE, Nate Livings G (signed w/ Cowboys), Mike McGlynn G (signed w/ Colts), Terrell Owens WR, Dennis Roland OT, Bo Scaife TE, Jerome Simpson WR, Bobbie Williams G,  

Defense 

Marvin Lewis finally has the players on defense to utilize his talents as a defensive coach. Cinci has one of the best front fours in football, probably the best in the AFC.

Losing Jonathan Fanene hurts, but the Bengals signed Derek Harvey and Denver Jamaal Anderson, to upgrade the depth along that defensive front. Getting another tackle could be beneficial, but this is a talented, physical front.

Adding Jason Allen from Houston is also an underrated move. Allen was extremely productive for the Texans last season and the Bengals are in need of help in their defensive backfield in terms of depth.

When Leon Hall was injured last year, this team didn't play the same defensively. Getting better there and at safety have to be considered priorities this offseason.

Injuries have riddled Cincinnati linebackers the last few years and adding some young talent there would help not only with depth, but with building a long-term blueprint for defense.


Key Free Agents: Jonathan Fanene DE (signed w/ Patriots), Kelly Jennings DB, Brandon Johnson OLB, Adam Jones (re-signed w/ Bengals), Manny Lawson OLB, (re-signed w/ Bengals), Reggie Nelson S (re-signed w/ Bengals), Frostee Rucker DE (signed w/ Browns), Pat Sims DT (re-signed w/ Bengals), Dan Skuta ILB, Gibril Wilson S

Draft Targets

Needs: DB,G,WR,RB,LB
Round 1 (Pick 17 F/ Raiders): Cordy Glenn OL Georgia (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank:19)

The Bengals love massive offensive lineman and Cordy Glenn certainly qualifies. Glenn can play guard or tackle, but would be fine at guard in this offense. The former Bulldog isn't the most agile moving laterally, but is a powerful blocker and is better in pass protection than you might expect from someone his size. Given the punishing defenses in this division, Glenn would be an upgrade inside and has value here.

Round 1 (Pick 21): Kendall Wright WR Baylor (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 18)

It seems a little strange to have the Bengals use their second pick on a player ranked higher than they drafted with their first pick, but the need at guard is much higher than at wide receiver and the Bengals should have reason to expect Wright, or another wide receiver with a first round grade to be there when they pick at 21. Wright is the ideal fit to play next to Green and Gresham, working the underneath routes and winning 1-on-1 match-ups with nickle corners. This would be a scary pick for teams in the AFC North.    


Round 2 (Pick 53): Jamell Flemming CB Oklahoma (Pos. Rank: 7, Overall Rank: 54)

If you want stat guys or work-out warriors, Flemming isn't your guy, but if you want someone with elite instincts and a tremendous break on the ball, you want Jamell Flemming. At the Senior Bowl, even if off coverage - his strength is press man - you could see his reaction speed and instincts. As a nickel corner, Flemming is a perfect fit given that he'd regularly be locked up with inside receivers in man coverage. A potential future starter could be a steal here.

Round 3 (Pick 83): Markelle Martin S Oklahoma State (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 83)

Once thought to be a first round pick, Martin's play didn't live up to expectations as a senior. Martin is somewhat redundant with Reggie Nelson since Nelson is the kind of center field, deep safety that Martin would be. On the other hand, with the strength of Cinci's front, the Bengals don't need to regularly play with a safety in the box. Martin does a good job with his reads and finding the quarterback's eyes. His fluidity as a an athlete is somewhat limited, but he could be a solid sub-package defender for the Bengals.

Overall

One of three teams with two first round picks, the Bengals have the luxury of picking for need with one and value for the other if they so choose. In other words, if they want to zero in a player they really like at a position of need, they don't need to worry about value with the 17th pick, knowing they have another pick almost right after. This is an even draft in terms of value, plus it brings impact players on both sides of the ball. Three of the four players above could be starters eventually and be significant contributors right away. A draft like this would solidify the young, talented core of this team.

Final Thought

The biggest "need," for this team is just to get older and wiser. In other words, the best way for this group to get better is just keep playing. Talents like Green come around once every few years and Dalton is a potential Pro Bowl quarterback even if he's not an elite physical talent. This defense is young and physical, already one of the best in the league. Adding depth in the back end will be a great boost, as will upgrading the offensive front. There may be a step back in the second season with Dalton and Green, but they have set up the Bengals for long-term success.

2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Pittsburgh Steelers

With considerable attention being paid to other AFC playoff teams this offseason, the Pittsburgh Steelers have been largely left unmentioned.

This is typical of the Steelers, who tend to go about their business, play tremendous defense and win football games without a lot of flash or bravado.

In other words, this isn't a sexy team.

Still, heading into the playoffs last year, they were the team Patriot fans were most concerned about and if it weren't for injuries, may well have been the team playing for a Super Bowl.

Unfortunately, injuries happen to every team and Pittsburgh simply hasn't done a good job in recent years of drafting and developing players in the secondary or the offensive and defensive fronts of this team.

When you don't have depth or young players who are ready to play, injuries, which are part of the game for every team, hurt that much more.

Despite all of that, this team won 12 games, finished first in total defense and was a Tim Tebow overtime throw away from playing the eventual AFC Champions in the playoffs.

There are holes, particularly in the offensive and defensive lines, but if they can be addressed, Pittsburgh could be a team who comes back in a big way in 2012.
   
Offense

The identity of this team offensively has changed in the past few years. The emergence of Pittsburgh's young, lightening quick receivers has turned this into a big-play offense. Mike Wallace and Andre Brown form one of the best receiving duos in the league and create match-up problems for defenses with their speed.

Injuries and depth concerns have hindered the offense's ability to run the football, as have the Steelers' relative lack of depth in the backfield. With Mewelde Moore heading to free agency, the Pittsburgh should look to find a suitable change of pace back to spell Rashard Mendenhall.

Talent on the offensive line, however, is the bigger problem. Four Steelers offensive lineman are free agents, although Doug Legursky is restricted. Outside of center Maurkice Pouncey, there isn't a top-level offensive lineman in this group which means getting better there is a must.

Drafting a quarterback this year seems like a strong possibility as well given that all three of Pittsburgh's back-ups are free agents this year.    


Key Free Agents: Charlie Batch QB, Jericho Cotchery WR, Dennis Dixon QB, Trai Essex G, Chris Kemoeatu G, Doug Legursky G, Mewelde Moore RB, Max Starks, Hines Ward (retired)

Defense 

Defense will continue to be how the Steelers win consistently. Troy Polamalu isn't the player he used to be and has had a problem staying healthy, but this group plays so well fundamentally and physically that it can mask some of the personnel deficiencies.

Losing James Farrior in free agency hurts because he was one of the key leaders of that defense and made calls at the line. Harrison and Woodley form probably the best 3-4 linebacker tandem in football, but the interior could use some help.

The biggest problem defensively for the Steelers is their three-man front. They lost to the Broncos last year, in part because they literally ran out of defensive lineman to put on the field. Not to mention that ones they do have on the roster are getting older. An upgrade here is a must.

As with every NFL team, getting depth in the defensive backfield should always be a focus, particularly when the Steelers know to win the AFC they'll have to beat teams like New England, Baltimore and Houston, all of whom like the throw the ball around the yard. 

Key Free Agents: James Farrior ILB, William Gay (signed w/ Cardinals), Aaron Smith DE,

Draft Targets

Needs: OL,DL,LB,RB,DB

Round 1 (Pick 24): Devon Still DT Penn State (Pos. Rank 4, Overall Rank: 24)

In a perfect world, one of the top shelf offensive lineman falls to the Steelers here. A player like Cordy Glenn would be a great fit in Pittsburgh. On the other hand, Still was considered by many to be the top defensive tackle prospect heading into the combine when guys like Dontari Poe and Fletcher Cox blew scouts away with their athleticism. Still is not a penetrating tackle, but uses his hands well to control offensive lineman and has the kind of frame that fits what Pittsburgh asks of their defensive ends in their 3-4.

Round 2 (Pick 56): Alameda Ta'amu NT Washington (Pos. Rank: 8, Overall Rank: 56)

Pittsburgh has one of the best nose tackles in the game in Casey Hampton. Ta'amu has a chance to be that kind of elite-level player as well. He showed that at the Senior Bowl with an absolutely dominating week of practice. On the other hand, he doesn't show that explosiveness and power all of the time, whether it's conditioning or focus. In a defense surrounded by other elite talent and veteran leadership, Pittsburgh would be the ideal place to maximize his potential. This could be a swindle of a deal for the Steelers.


Round 3 (Pick 86): James Brown G/T Troy (Pos. Rank: 6, Overall Rank: 91)

Finally the Steelers address their biggest issue which is help on the offensive line. Brown played tackle at Troy, something you can see in his agility and nimble footwork. If a team like the Steelers want to slide him inside to guard, he'll have to work on bending and anchoring inside, particularly since he's tall with long arms. Not a technician, Brown is a competitor and a terrific athlete who has a high ceiling in the NFL.

Overall 

Pittsburgh has done an excellent job in recent drafts of getting offensive talent with guys like Wallace and Brown. It's important that the Steelers address their fronts on both sides of the ball and this draft does that, while also maintaining the integrity of their pick's value. The draft value (-5) rests mostly on the reach for Brown since Still and Ta'amu are drafted literally exactly where their value dictates. On the other hand, Brown is a player with a tremendous upside and if you're going to reach, you have to weigh the possible rewards. In this case the Steelers address their defensive lines with solid value and that gives them the flexibility to be more aggressive with a high-ceiling player.

Final Thought

Even if Pittsburgh doesn't draft or bring in any impact players, this is a 10 win team if they're healthy. At least. But that's the point: the Steelers need to add talent to weather any injury storms. Addressing the fronts in the draft, while also adding a running back and back-up quarterback would give the Steelers piece of mind knowing the key cogs are place already. This is a playoff team and one that is certainly still smarting from that playoff exit at the hands of Tebowmania. An angry Steeler team is not one you want to see if you're an opponent.