2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Washington Redskins

The Washington Redskins are at it again. Every year, it seems, they try to make a big splash, spend millions on free agents and yet only rarely make the playoffs.

For years now, the only thing Washington has won is the offseason.

It certainly doesn't help playing in a division with perennial power teams. In the 1990's, there was the Cowboys dynasty. In the early 2000's, Philadelphia was making a deep run every year, and now the Giants have won two Super Bowl titles in the last five seasons.

But Washington, instead of rebuilding through the draft and setting a solid foundation, has tried quick fixes to remain competitive.

Now, finally, the Redskins have made an offseason splash that may also serve to set that foundation.

They gave up a lot to get him, but trading up with the Rams to draft Robert Griffin III may be a seminal moment in this franchise's history.

RG3 is one of the most unique talents we've ever seen come out of college and has a chance to be special in the NFL.

Owner Daniel Snyder made a few moves to bolster the receiving core and the defensive backfield, eschewing the big names, while aiming for the kind of role players you need to compete every week in the league.

This somewhat new approach may not pay off this season, but could pay long-term dividends for the Redskins. 

Offense
Despite what Donovan McNabb says (try to stifle your laughter), Griffin III will be an ideal fit for this offense. Roy Helu appears to be a solid running back and with a new group of receivers, RG3 will use play action and roll-outs to put defenses on their heels.

Just how much this offense will be tailored to fit the Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, we'll find out once practice begins. I doubt we'll see much speed option, but you can expect some designed runs for Griffin as well as frequent use of boot options and read plays.

Josh Morgan and Pierre Garcon were signed to bring some consistency to this skill group. Santana Moss is getting older, but can still be explosive at times. Getting a deeper group of receivers should take the pressure of him and open up more lanes for him to make big plays down the field.

There are some concerns with this offensive line group although Trent Williams has been ad advertised when he's been healthy. Getting some protection for RG3 should be a perennial focus from now on.

Adding a pass-catching tight end would also give Griffin III a security blanket and a red zone threat. There is a solid group of tight ends in this class, and the Redskins, despite not having a second round pick, could still pick one up. 


Key Free Agents: David Anderson WR, Rex Grossman QB (re-signed w/ Redskins), Tim Hightower RB, Malcolm Kelly WR, Kory Lichtensteiger G (re-signed w/ Redskins), Sean Locklear OT, Will Montgomery C (re-signed w/ Redskins), Mike Sellers TE, Donte' Stallworth WR (signed w/ Patriots), Ryan Torain RB

Defense
While Snyder didn't break the bank on one of the big fish in free agency, he did stockpile defensive backs after losing both his starting safeties in free agency along with two other role players.

Washington will bring in Madieu Williams, Brandon Meriweather and Tanard Jackson, all who have been impact safeties at various times in their respective careers.

Out of those three, you'd hope Washington could find two who play well enough to emerge as starters. Jackson is the biggest playmaker in coverage of the three, but was the worst defensive back in football last year making tackles according to Pro Football Focus.

Leigh Torrence and Cedric Griffin (assuming he still has working ligaments in his knees), should provide some depth behind DeAngelo Hall at corner for a defense that finished 12th last year against the pass.   

The Redskins are in good shape when it comes to pass rush with Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan, but the defensive interior is weak to say the least and getting some beef in the middle should help secure a defense that game up more than 117 yards per game on the ground last year.

Key Free Agents: O.J. Atogwe S, Phillip Buchanon DB, Adam Carriker DE (re-signed w/ Redskins), London Fletcher ILB (re-signed w/ Redskins), Keyaron Fox LB, Kedric Golston (re-signed w/ Redskins), Chris Horton DB (signed w/ Giants), LaRon Landry SS (signed w/ Jets), Rocky McIntosh ILB, Byron Westbrook DB

Draft Targets

Needs: QB,DL,OL,TE,DB
Round 1 (Pick 2 F/ Rams): Robert Griffin III QB Baylor (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 2)

We know this is the pick and what the Redskins gave up to make it. We also know that Griffin III is the most athletic quarterback to come into the league since Mike Vick, but doesn't have the same run-first mentality. In some ways, RG3 is the quarterback we always thought Vick should be, using his feet to keep defenses honest and creating problems when the play breaks down. This is a make or break moment for the Redskins. If Griffin III is the player the 'Skins think he is, it was well-worth the price they paid and ironically, he has a much higher ceiling than Sam Bradford, who happens to play on the team Washington traded with to get this pick.

Round 2 (Pick 39): Traded to Rams for #2 pick

Round 3 (Pick 69): Alameda Ta'amu NT Washington (Pos. Rank: 8, Overall Rank: 69)

Washington did re-sign Adam Carriker, but there are currently only three defensive tackles on this  roster. Ta'amu has dominant physical skills, was unblockable at the Senior Bowl, but much like fellow nose tackle Dontari Poe, the film doesn't show him to be a consistent force. Luckily, he doesn't have the baggage that Albert Haynesworth had and as such, should be much more coachable at the next level. This probably isn't who I'll have have in my final mock, only because I think Daniel Snyder will want to get more weapons for RG3. That's why to me, Orson Charles seems more likely even if Ta'amu makes more sense.

Overall

The value of this draft is dead on (0), but you have to remember what the Rams gave up to get Robert Griffin III. It seems like the Redskins might have given up one first round pick too many if you go by the charting, but if you look at next year's draft would RG3 have been rated about Matt Barkley? Maybe, but Barkley is the presumptive #1 overall pick next year, not to mention Griffin III has a higher ceiling. He certainly ranks about where Landry Jones would have been, which means if you were going to pick a year to get a quarterback, this is it. Either Ta'amu or Orson Charles could be impact rookies and either would be a welcome upgrade to what the Redskins have at the position already. 

Final Thought
Even if Robet Griffin III can step in and be as good as Cam Newton as a rookie, the Redskins will be extremely lucky to win 8 games next year. In a division where the Giants, Eagles and Cowboys all appear to be stronger than last year (with the possible exception of the Giants), the Redskins will have an uphill battle trying to make strides. To me, you can't judge the Redskins based on 2012 however, because the move to get RG3 signals a shift to make long-term improvements. Six or seven wins would be outstanding, particularly given that the 'Skins have the NFC South and the AFC North teams on their schedule. Four or five wins with RG3 at quarterback seems much more likely, landing the 'Skins back in the top 10 of next year's draft. I know it won't make the fans happy, at least during the season, but that could actually be a good thing and would give Washington the ability to continue this rebuilding project through the draft, adding young talent around their franchise quarterback. 

2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Carolina Panthers

The 2011 Carolina Panthers were, to a degree, the Green Bay Packers Lite. Carolina finished in the top 10 in every major statistical offensive category, but finished no better than 25th in any major defensive category.

Count me as one of the people who thought Cam wouldn't be ready for the NFL as a rookie starter. If nothing else, he proved that a small sample size shouldn't be judged too harshly either positively or negatively.

Newton has the look of a transcendent player, the kind of player you might make in Madden, but never would expect to see in real life.

The big question for Carolina is whether or not Newton can win in the NFL. In some ways, he's had the anti-Vince Young season.

For VY, it wasn't pretty, but the guy won seemingly every week. Cam has put up gaudy stats for a bad team, but the Panthers were in just about every game they played and frankly, most of the losses weren't his fault.

This defense was atrocious and some of the key contributors for this team, including Newton and head coach Ron Rivera, are still relatively green.

Even in free agency, of the five players Carolina signed, they had just 10 total starts between them last season and eight of them belonged to Mike Pollak, who played guard for the Colts.

Truly, one of the only major differences between the 2011 Panthers and the 2010 Panthers was Cam Newton, and it was good for a four win increase; and while the NFC South is one of the toughest conferences in football,  if Cam get better and the defense gets better, the Panthers could be in the mix in 2012.
 
Offense
Carolina changed their franchise in the draft last year. Obviously, that's much easier to do with the #1 overall pick and a guy like Cam Newton to take with that pick.


The Panthers are back inside the top 10, and could wind up with one of the elite talents if a team like Miami trades up to draft Ryan Tannehill. Unfortunately, there are 5 top-tier guys and none of those are likely to fall.

Even so, there are plenty of holes on this team to fill and getting an interior lineman or skill player on the edge could really benefit Cam and this offense.

The aforementioned Pollak was signed to mitigate the losses of Mackenzy Bernadeau and Travelle Wharton, although neither are even average players.

Signed Mike Tolbert from San Diego gives the Panthers a backfield, with Newton, that will give defensive players nightmares. Those are two of the hardest guys in the league to bring down on first contact.

Carolina has been working to extend Steve Smith, but outside of him and Greg Olsen, there is a serious drop-off in talent. Nabbing a receiver in the first few rounds of the draft and potentially adding one in the later stages of free agency seems like a must for this team.

Key Free Agents: Derek Anderson QB (re-signed w/ Panthers), Mackenzy Bernadeau G (signed w/ Coyboys), Omar Gaither OLB, Cletis Gordon, Legedu Naanee WR (signed w/ Dolphins), Geoff Schwartz G (signed w/ Vikings), Jeremy Shockey TE, Travelle Wharton G (signed w/ Bengals)

Defense
If Carolina can find any improvement on this side of the ball, the Panthers could start to really make strides. Signing Reggie Smith and Haruki Nakamura will add depth to this secondary, but neither will have a major impact on the defense.

Kenny Onatolu, signed from the Vikings, is probably more of a special teams and depth player.

That leaves big holes at essentially every level of this defense. Chris Gamble is a good corner, but outside of him, this is an extremely limited group.

The defensive line desperately needs some impact players. Charles Johnson is the only player who would even start on most other teams and while he's an excellent pass rusher, he desperately needs help.

Carolina could draft a player at any defensive position and it would make sense. Adding some beef inside by getting a tackle who can rush the passer, but also anchor inside, would relieve a lot of stress on Johnson and this limited secondary.

Getting a corner with some speed and even some return ability would really be a boost to both this defense and special teams. You can never have too many corners in a division with Drew Brees and Matt Ryan.

Key Free Agents: Antwan Applewhite DE (re-signed w/ Panthers), Dan Connor ILB (signed w/ Cowboys), DeMario Pressley DT, Jordan Senn OLB (re-signed w/ Panthers)

Draft Targets

Needs: CB,WR,S,LB, DL
Round 1 (Pick 9): Fletcher Cox DT Mississippi State (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 8)

From what I'm hearing, Cox isn't falling this far. It sounds like neither the Rams nor the Jaguars are in love with Justin Blackmon and if he's available, he'd be extremely hard to give up. On the other hand, it's hard to know what to believe now that we're full on into what is known as the "silly season." If Cox or Quinton Coples is here at this pick, either would make the most sense (assuming Blackmon doesn't fall). Cox was dominant, at times, in the SEC and is so athletic some scouts believe he might be better suited to play end due to his combination of power and quickness. Every time I watched him play, I liked him more and more. By the end of the season he was a first round pick, and after wowing scouts in workouts, he's a top 10 talent. He'd be a terrific addition to this struggling defense.

Round 2 (Pick 40): Brandon Boykin CB Georgia (Pos. Rank: 5, Overall Rank: 41)

To me, this pick comes down to two SEC players: Boykin and LSU wide receiver Rueben Randle. Both are outstanding athletes with speed and quickness to spare. Both are dynamic with the ball and possess terrific hands. Boykin is an undersized corner, whereas Rueben is 6'4" and reportedly ran sub 4.4 40's at his pro day. Boykin, though, plays a position of greater need and would be an asset in the return game. You get the feeling Cam Newton might be the kind of quarterback who can play with just about any group of receivers and he'll throw for 4,000 yards. Boykin would be a playmaker on a secondary without any, but Randle could be awfully hard to bypass.

Round 3 (Pick 73): Traded to Bears for Greg Olson

Overall

With just two picks in the first 100, the Panthers will be under even more pressure to get this draft right. A few missteps here and it could set Cam Newton back a year of his development. Luckily, both picks are in the top 50 and it seems like every year, a few first round talents slip to the top the second round where needy franchises gladly scoop them up. Boykin is a tier below the fringe first round groups, but some red flags could drop first round talents like Alshon Jeffery (who would be an ideal fit for this team, with ties to the area) and Janoris Jenkins right into the lap of the Panthers. Even if that doesn't happen, a player like Boykin has the ball skills and big-play ability to warrant a high pick, not to mention Fletcher Cox has Pro Bowl talent along the interior. The value (0) isn't terrific, but with just two players, both potentially starters, this would be an excellent draft for the Panthers.

Final Thought

There's no questioning this is Cam Newton's team, barring injury, for the next decade. You don't play at the level he played at, set the kinds of records he did as a rookie, without having big-time talent. If this defense improves at all, so too should the Panthers. Improving much on their 6-10 record could be an issue since they get the NFC East and a much improved AFC West, along with the Saints and Falcons twice. Getting to 8-8 or even 7-9 with this schedule should be considered outstanding. With so much talent in the NFC, it's hard to imagine the Panthers pushing their way into the playoffs, but if a they draft well and can get production from their rookies, the post season isn't out of the question. We'll start to find out this season if Cam Newton can be more than just Stats Superman and be a winner in the NFL.

2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Cincinnati Bengals

From one of the worst franchises in sports to one of the best young teams in the NFL. That's the arc the Bengals have taken during the tenure of Marvin Lewis, with a brief respite of respectability when Carson Palmer had full, working ligaments in both knees and his top receiver still had a real last name.

Cincinnati surprised just about everyone last season by going from a cellar-dweller to a playoff participant with a rookie quarterback.

Andy Dalton wasn't as dynamic as Cam Newton, but Dalton won nine games and got his team into the playoffs.

Having one of the best young receivers in the game in A.J. Green certainly helped. Green is a rising superstar in this league, a tall, long receiver who can go across the middle or burn you down the sidelines.

Defensively, the Bengals were a top 10 team last year as well, despite losing a number of starters to injury and Johnathan Joseph, their starting corner, to free agency.

Without changing a thing, this team could win 10 games next year even in an extremely tough division. The young, ultra-talented core will have the chance to mature, plus a pair of first round picks means this team will add even more pieces.

Cincinnati may finally have the team to shed the 'Bungles' nickname for good.
 
Offense
The Bengals already addressed their most glaring offensive need by signing Patriots running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis. While not a stud back, Green-Ellis is steady and solid, certainly capable of replacing what they lost with Cedric Benson.

Getting better on the interior of the line should be a priority with Nate Livings signing in Dallas as a free agent. The middle of the line isn't nearly as strong as the tackles and an upgrade there could also boost the running game.

The aforementioned Green and tight end Jermaine Gresham form a formidable duo, but losing Andre Caldwell depletes the group around them and getting a slot receiver would make Green and Gresham that much harder to stop.

Another tight end could also help in both the run game and receiving game, particularly with the kind of athletes this draft has at that position.

I do expect the Bengals to use one of their first three picks on a receiver, which could make this offense much more consistent.

Key Free Agents: Cedric Benson  RB, Andre Caldwell WR (signed w/ Broncos), Anthony Collins OT (re-signed w/ Bengals), Donald Lee TE, Nate Livings G (signed w/ Cowboys), Mike McGlynn G (signed w/ Colts), Terrell Owens WR, Dennis Roland OT, Bo Scaife TE, Jerome Simpson WR, Bobbie Williams G,  

Defense 

Marvin Lewis finally has the players on defense to utilize his talents as a defensive coach. Cinci has one of the best front fours in football, probably the best in the AFC.

Losing Jonathan Fanene hurts, but the Bengals signed Derek Harvey and Denver Jamaal Anderson, to upgrade the depth along that defensive front. Getting another tackle could be beneficial, but this is a talented, physical front.

Adding Jason Allen from Houston is also an underrated move. Allen was extremely productive for the Texans last season and the Bengals are in need of help in their defensive backfield in terms of depth.

When Leon Hall was injured last year, this team didn't play the same defensively. Getting better there and at safety have to be considered priorities this offseason.

Injuries have riddled Cincinnati linebackers the last few years and adding some young talent there would help not only with depth, but with building a long-term blueprint for defense.


Key Free Agents: Jonathan Fanene DE (signed w/ Patriots), Kelly Jennings DB, Brandon Johnson OLB, Adam Jones (re-signed w/ Bengals), Manny Lawson OLB, (re-signed w/ Bengals), Reggie Nelson S (re-signed w/ Bengals), Frostee Rucker DE (signed w/ Browns), Pat Sims DT (re-signed w/ Bengals), Dan Skuta ILB, Gibril Wilson S

Draft Targets

Needs: DB,G,WR,RB,LB
Round 1 (Pick 17 F/ Raiders): Cordy Glenn OL Georgia (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank:19)

The Bengals love massive offensive lineman and Cordy Glenn certainly qualifies. Glenn can play guard or tackle, but would be fine at guard in this offense. The former Bulldog isn't the most agile moving laterally, but is a powerful blocker and is better in pass protection than you might expect from someone his size. Given the punishing defenses in this division, Glenn would be an upgrade inside and has value here.

Round 1 (Pick 21): Kendall Wright WR Baylor (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 18)

It seems a little strange to have the Bengals use their second pick on a player ranked higher than they drafted with their first pick, but the need at guard is much higher than at wide receiver and the Bengals should have reason to expect Wright, or another wide receiver with a first round grade to be there when they pick at 21. Wright is the ideal fit to play next to Green and Gresham, working the underneath routes and winning 1-on-1 match-ups with nickle corners. This would be a scary pick for teams in the AFC North.    


Round 2 (Pick 53): Jamell Flemming CB Oklahoma (Pos. Rank: 7, Overall Rank: 54)

If you want stat guys or work-out warriors, Flemming isn't your guy, but if you want someone with elite instincts and a tremendous break on the ball, you want Jamell Flemming. At the Senior Bowl, even if off coverage - his strength is press man - you could see his reaction speed and instincts. As a nickel corner, Flemming is a perfect fit given that he'd regularly be locked up with inside receivers in man coverage. A potential future starter could be a steal here.

Round 3 (Pick 83): Markelle Martin S Oklahoma State (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 83)

Once thought to be a first round pick, Martin's play didn't live up to expectations as a senior. Martin is somewhat redundant with Reggie Nelson since Nelson is the kind of center field, deep safety that Martin would be. On the other hand, with the strength of Cinci's front, the Bengals don't need to regularly play with a safety in the box. Martin does a good job with his reads and finding the quarterback's eyes. His fluidity as a an athlete is somewhat limited, but he could be a solid sub-package defender for the Bengals.

Overall

One of three teams with two first round picks, the Bengals have the luxury of picking for need with one and value for the other if they so choose. In other words, if they want to zero in a player they really like at a position of need, they don't need to worry about value with the 17th pick, knowing they have another pick almost right after. This is an even draft in terms of value, plus it brings impact players on both sides of the ball. Three of the four players above could be starters eventually and be significant contributors right away. A draft like this would solidify the young, talented core of this team.

Final Thought

The biggest "need," for this team is just to get older and wiser. In other words, the best way for this group to get better is just keep playing. Talents like Green come around once every few years and Dalton is a potential Pro Bowl quarterback even if he's not an elite physical talent. This defense is young and physical, already one of the best in the league. Adding depth in the back end will be a great boost, as will upgrading the offensive front. There may be a step back in the second season with Dalton and Green, but they have set up the Bengals for long-term success.