2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Buffalo Bills

Buffalo's season started with more promise than any in recent memory. A 5-2 start had Bills fans thinking playoffs.

After narrow losses to Cincinnati and New York sandwiched a gutty victory over the Eagles, the Bills dusted the Redskins 23-0 and appeared to be a team to reckon with in the AFC.

Instead, the Bills free-fell from the standings, finishing the year 1-8 in the last nine games, including a Week 17 loss to the Patriots in which the Bills lead 21-0.

Buffalo locked up their starting quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick, to a long-term deal and have one of the best stable of running backs in the league.

Stevie Johnson signed a mega-deal to stay with the team, but outside of him, this receiving core lacks playmakers.

Mario Williams brought some legitimacy to a waning franchise by signing with the Bills this offseason. He and Mark Anderson, signed from the Patriots, will provide an immediate impact on what was a terrible defense.

This is a young team and they showed it last year by being unable to handle the pressure of winning games early.

Bringing in Williams and Anderson, both talented, veteran players, could help with the mental toughness of this team, who may not have believed they were as good as their record indicated early in the year.

The AFC East will be tough as long as Tom Brady plays there and the Jets are in a make-or-break season. But both of those things were no less true last year when the Bills started so hot.

With the way this offense can score, the Bills will at least be a team to be taken seriously next year.

Offense
It's pretty clear where the strengths and weaknesses of this offense reside.

Fred Jackson looked like the most complete back in football before an injury derailed his season. C.J. Spiller finally flashed his explosive talents last year, but was inconsistent at times and Tashard Choice is the best third running back in the game.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is getting paid like a franchise quarterback, although he's never going to be Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers. He is, however, a terrific leader, a hard-worker and knows the game. He can be your quarterback on a Super Bowl team, although this team is far from that point.

In terms of holes, the Bills' offensive line is a mess. Demetrius Bell signed with the Eagles in the offseason, leaving a glaring hole at left tackle. Chad Rinehart, a starter at guard, and Kraig Urbik the starting center, both have tested the free agent market, although neither has signed a new deal.

Likely, one or both of those players will return to Buffalo given the dire straights this team is in along the line, but don't be surprised to see the Bills target multiple offensive lineman in a draft heavy with line talent.

Getting a tight end who can be a threat in the passing game and a solid blocker would go a long way to covering some of the deficiencies of this line.

Key Free Agents: Demetrius Bell OT (signed w/ Eagles), Tashard Choice (re-signed w/ Bills), Derek Hagan WR (re-signed w/ Bills), Ruvell Martin (re-signed w/ Bills), Roscoe Parish (signed w/ Chargers), Chad Rinehart G, Kraig Urbik G,

Defense
Mario Williams brings legitimacy to any defense. After drawing controversy as the #1 overall pick in 2006, Williams has established himself as one of the premier pass rushers in the league.

His 6 year $100 million tells you that and although he wasn't a perfect fit for the Texans 3-4 defense, he has 100 million reasons to be on board with whatever defense they plan to play in Buffalo.

It is curious though, that the Bills, in signing Williams and Mark Anderson, signed two ends who have played almost exclusively in the 4-3 system, which may mean the Bills, who tinkered with a 3-4 defense, will play 4-3 almost exclusively next season.

That means the Bills will need to add some help for Nick Barnett at linebacker, particularly given Barnett's limited size inside. Super Mario and Anderson will help a defense that finished 19th against the pass last year, but getting better linebacker play will be a must if Buffalo hopes to do better than 28th against the run.

Buffalo has a solid safety tandem, but has struggled to find the right corners. Leodis McKelvin hasn't lived up to his first-round talent and Aaron Williams was forced to play as a rookie last season.

Building depth there would go a long way in stymieing the high-powered passing offenses in the AFC.

Key Free Agents:Reggie Corner CB, Andra Davis ILB, Bryan Scott DB (re-signed w/ Bills), Reggie Torbor DE,

Draft Targets

Needs: OL,WR,LB,DB,TE
Round 1 (Pick 10): Riley Reiff OT Iowa (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 11)

To me, this is a no-brainer. Reiff is clearly the second best offensive tackle in this draft and the Bills desperately need his toughness. Reiff isn't the pass-blocker that Matt Khalil is, but few are given that Khalil is considered by many to be one of the best tackle prospects to come out in the last several years. The former Iowa All-Big Ten selection faced some pretty fierce pass rushers in his conference and consistently held his own, although run blocking is his bread and butter. He compares favorably with former Iowa tackle and current Green Bay tackle Bryan Bulaga. Michael Floyd may be temping here, but the need and value for Reiff at this spot is too great to pass up.

Round 2 (Pick 41): Dwayne Allen TE Clemson (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 42)

Though not the great athlete of his draft class piers Coby Fleener and Orson Charles, Allen may be the most complete tight end in this draft class. He's a solid in-line blocker and a big bodied receiver with terrific hands. He isn't going to be a field-splitting target like Antonio Gates or Vernon Davis, but I've compared him a number of times to Heath Miller, a player who can help your offense in a number of ways and if you don't account for him, will beat you. Allen has fallen down boards a little bit as a result of some inconsistent play and the athletic display put on by Charles and Fleener in post-season workouts, but Allen has gotten first round buzz and would be an ideal fit for the Bills.

Round 3 (Pick 71): Chase Minnifield CB Virginia (Pos. Rank: 10, Overall Rank: 72)

If Buffalo thinks a player like Bruce Irvin can play linebacker in their system, he might make more sense here and would give the Bills some freakishly athletic pass rushers. Irvin's limited history as a linebacker though, may give way for a corner like Minnifield to be the pick. If it weren't for injuries and concerns about his deep speed, Minnifield might actually have a shot to crack the first round. As a press corner, the former Virginia Cavalier has few piers in this class and has the ball skills to back up his in-your-face style. He's also a solid tackler, which means lining him up on slot receivers in nickel coverage would be an ideal situation for him, at least early in his career. You don't lose much if the offense runs out of multiple receiver sets, particularly if you let him press, because he's good enough in run support to play at the line of scrimmage.

Overall

This is one of those drafts where the numeric draft value (-3), doesn't tell the whole story. Reiff is a Day 1 starter out of necessity, but is a good value in the top 10. Allen, although he may not have the ceiling of a guy like Coby Fleener, doesn't have a low floor either and is, at worst, the kind of player the Bills can use regularly in two tight end sets, boosting both their run and pass game. Minnifield has major potential thanks to his press coverage abilities, an en vogue defense given its effectiveness against spread offenses like the Patriots who rely so much on timing. A draft like this could set the Bills up for success this season and beyond by filling the team's most pressing needs.

Final Thought

We won't know if last year's 5-2 start was a mirage or the real deal for the Bills because the addition of Mario Williams could have such a profound impact on this team. Teaming Williams and Anderson with Marcel Dareus presents a real problem for opposing offenses and could yield drastic gains defensively. Even if the Bills don't improve much offensively, they were still in the top half of every major offensive category last year, meaning an improved defense should be enough to win another game or two. It's hard to see a team with this much talent regressing next year, but improving on their 6-10 record may be tough given their division. New England and New York certainly boast better teams and Miami, unlike Buffalo, got a lot better as the season went on last year. Next year will be Year 1 in finding out just how big a return the Bills will get from their $100 million man.

2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: New York Jets

Tim Tebow.

That's all I have to say and I'm guaranteed to get clicks right?

That seems to be the philosophy of the New York Jets management as well given that bringing Tim Tebow to New York doesn't seem to make that much football sense.

Rex Ryan already has a famous quarterback who "just wins," but seems to lack the skills necessary to be an elite quarterback.

Now, Ryan has two, except the fans will be so excited for Tebow that unless the Jets go 13-3, win the division and at least go to a Super Bowl, there will be a dangerously high level of pressure to give Tebow more run.

You're taking the confidence of a player whose game is predicated on that confidence and completely undermining it by bringing in a player with the most ferocious following in the sport.

Then, you have the owner going on ESPN to say that Tebow is going to play 10-15 snaps a game unless he gets something going. In other words, if Tebow leads them to a touchdown, he'll keep playing and keep your supposed franchise quarterback (at least the guy you're paying to be one) on the bench.

This works at times in college. It doesn't in the NFL. I have no idea how this is going to play out, but I can't imagine a team in today's NFL winning a championship when you have a quarterback who you'd rather not play the whole game.

Rex Ryan was quiet this offseason, humble, even ingratiating. The Jets didn't throw money at every free agent on the market and actually lost a number of key contributors.

It's been a strange offseason to say the least and the Jets will need to have an extremely efficient draft in order to get back to the playoffs in 2012, particularly with holes at wide receiver, offensive line and pass rush to address.

Offense
Adding Tebow to this offense may make it a better rushing team, a critical piece for Rex Ryan's team which will almost certainly have another elite defensive season.

Shonn Green hasn't been able to stay healthy and LaDainian Tomlinson is a free agent. Joe McKnight has been dynamic in the return game and may be used more in the offense this year to create big plays.

Chaz Schilens was signed from Oakland to further supplement the big play department. Schilens started just five games for the Raiders last year, but is a talented young receiver who is 6-4 225 pounds and could play the role held by Plaxico Burress last year as the team's red zone target.

I love the potential of using Jeremy Kerley in the slot and wild cat, much like they used to with Brad Smith. Getting another receiver to groom as the future #1 could be a target for the Jets in the first or second round of the draft.

Also on the list of top draft needs offensively is some offensive line help, particularly at guard. This offensive line didn't play nearly as well in 2011 as it did the two previous seasons when the Jets pounded teams with the running game.

Dustin Keller has been an up and down player for the Jets as well so getting another athlete at tight end could help both the run and pass game.


Key Free Agents: Plaxico Burress WR, LaDainian Tomlinson RB, Robert Turner G

Defense
This defense relied more on scheme than talent last season and showed it's flaws when several starters were lost to injury.

LaRon Landry  was signed from Washington to mitigate the pending free agency of both starting safeties from last year. Jim Leonard may still return to the Jets and New York's poor play without him suggests Woody Hayes would be wise to find the right amount in his checkbook to keep Leonard.

Rex Ryan's creativity with blitz schemes coupled with the excellent corner talent on this team belies the fact that this defense lacks difference makers at outside linebacker and along the defensive front line.

Sione Pouha is one of the best nose tackles in the league, but the ends next to him are average at best. Calvin Pace and Bryan Thomas, the team's returning starters at outside linebacker, combined for just 4.5 sacks last season.

Adding an athletic outside linebacker may make Jet fans nervous since the disaster named Vernon Gholston came through Manhattan, but New York could be back to dominating teams if it can find a way to get pressure without bringing extra rushers.

Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie are good enough to force opposing quarterbacks to hold the ball an extra second, which means any kind of pass rush will give offenses fits.

Key Free Agents: Marquice Cole DB (signed w/ Patriots), Jim Leonard S, Brodney Poole S (signed w/ Cowboys), Sione Pouha DT (re-signed w/ Jets), Donald Strickland CB, Bryan Thomas OLB (re-signed w/ Jets), Jamaal Westerman OLB ( signed w/ Dolphins)

Draft Targets

Needs: OL,WR,OLB,RB,DL,S


Round 1 (Pick 16): Michael Floyd WR Notre Dame (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 14)

It's sounding more and more like Floyd may not fall to the Jets here given the interest from teams inside the top 10 including Miami, Carolina and Jacksonville. If he does fall, the Jets will gladly take one of the most dominant receivers in college football over the past three seasons. Floyd isn't a burner, but is physical and has outstanding hands to make catches in traffic. Floyd would be a reach inside the top 10, but would have terrific value here. Mark Barron or Courtney Upshaw would make sense here if Floyd does come off the board sooner.


Round 2 (Pick 47): Bruce Irvin OLB West Virginia (Pos. Rank: 6, Overall Rank: 47)

I love this pick for New York because it gives them the kind of athletic talent they haven't had at outside linebacker in recent years. Irvin is a 4.4 athlete with suddenness off the edge. He actually played defensive end at West Virginia, so he's used to holding the edge against bigger tackles. With his quickness and burst, Rex Ryan could use Irvin all over the field and bring him from a number of angles on stunts and twists. If Muhammed Wilkerson can develop, these two could make it extremely tough for opponents to slide protections one direction without leaving themselves vulnerable on the other.

Round 3 (Pick 79): Jared Crick DE Nebraska (Pos. Rank: 9, Overall Rank: 74)

This is another pick that would be a stroke of luck for the Jets. Crick was once seen as a first round pick until a muscle tear set him back. Crick could play defensive end in either a 4-3 or 3-4 system and has the strength to hold the edge, plus ability to use his hands to fight off blocks and penetrate. Crick isn't going to be Richard Seymour or Justin Smith, but he certainly has the talent to start over Mike DeVito and be productive in this defense. Not an elite pass rusher, Crick is probably best suited to be a 3-4 end who can hold his gap and allow New York's talented inside linebackers to make plays behind him.

Overall

If the draft falls this way, the Jets would walk away with one of the best hauls in the league. They have needs at positions with deep pools of talent this year and the value of this draft (7+) would be elite. To also address critical position needs makes this class even better. All three players are starting caliber talents while Floyd and Irvin are both high-ceiling players, capable of being Pro Bowlers. Crick is going to be assignment sure and at the very least a quality rotation player on an excellent defense. I would say that qualifies this draft as a success.

Final Thought

If the Jets can get a receiver and one of the top pass rushers in this draft in the first two rounds, this team will be in the playoffs in 2012. Rex Ryan isn't just gregarious and confident, he's a hell of a coach and the Jets have too much talent to miss the playoffs two years in a row. There are plenty of reasons to be concerned, the quarterback situation being both the most obvious and most scrutinized. On the other hand, a healthy defense for a full season will again terrorize opponents and this offense should be better if it can land another receiver to stretch the field. Anything less than 10 wins and a playoff birth would be underachieving.

2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Denver Broncos

It doesn't make sense to talk about the 2012 Denver Broncos through the lens of the '11 team since Denver traded the mania that had defined their season to New York.

Oh, and they signed a 4-time MVP and all-time great to replace him.

By signing Peyton Manning and trading Tim Tebow, Denver put itself at the center of the biggest player moves this offseason.

Had Tebow been replaced by almost anyone else, the level of vitriol among Broncos fans likely would have been significant. When you are able to put Peyton Manning, one of the best to ever play the position, at the media podium though, those attitudes must be tempered.

Tim Tebow was a big reason for the Broncos going from a 1-4 team to a playoff team and his knack to help win close games was a big reason why.

Manning, now under center in Denver, will have the fewest weapons of his career, but some young players who could really benefit from Peyton's unique talents as a communicator and leader.

The Broncos defense isn't exactly terrifying, but Manning has played with worse.
  
Offense
As a run-first offense, the Broncos were terrific last year, finishing at the top of the league rushing the ball. Losing Tim Tebow's numbers there will hurt, but the Denver offensive line is solid and should do a good job of both protecting Peyton and opening up running lanes.

Added Andre Caldwell on the outside and Jacob Tamme at tight end will mitigate, to some degree, the losses of both of Denver's top tight ends and their slot receiver Eddie Royal.

That being said, getting better skill possession players to pair with Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker are a critical part to making this offense better around Manning.

A running back should be part of the offseason plan as well with the aging Willis McGahee starting.

Peyton immediately makes this offense better just by showing up. Denver will again be a playoff threat thanks to what will undoubtedly be a better passing offense this season.

Key Free Agents:Daniel Fells TE (signed w/ Patriots), Dante Rosario TE (signed w/ Chargers), Eddie Royal WR ( signed w/ Chargers), Brady Quinn QB (signed w/ Chiefs), Matt Willis WR

Defense 

Denver, for what they added on offense with Manning, stands to lose a truckload on defense. All of the beef Denver had - which wasn't much to begin with - is headed out the door with Broderick Bunkley and Marcus Thomas both hitting free agency.

Even Denver's back-up defensive line with Derrick Harvey and Ryan McBean stand to walk, leaving the Broncos to with a literal hole in their defense.

Added Tracey Porter and Mike Adams can improve a secondary that, outside of Champ Bailey, doesn't have much in the way of talent. Getting deeper at defensive back, given the elite offensive teams in the AFC, is always something to be mindful of as well.

Linebacker is an area of strength for this team with Von Miller coming off a dynamic rookie season and both Joe Mays and Wesley Woodyard re-signing.

This is an athletic group of linebackers that, if given some big bodies up front, can do plenty of damage in space.

Getting better in the front four has to be a priority for the Broncos this offseason.

Key Free Agents: Broderick Bunkley DT (signed w/ Saints), Brian Dawkins S, Mario Haggan OLB, Derrick Harvey DE (signed w/ Bengals), Jason Hunter DE, Joe Mays ILB (re-signed w/ Broncos), Ryan McBean DL, Marcus Thomas DT, Wesley Woodyard LB (re-signed w/ Broncos)

Draft Targets

Needs:WR,DB,DL,TE,RB

Round 1 (Pick 25): Kendall Wright WR Baylor (Pos. Rank 3, Overall Rank: 23)

Wright was a sliding prospect after he run above 4.6 at the combine. His 4.4 40's at his Baylor workouts quelled some of those concerns and Wright's tape shows a player with explosive capabilities regardless of what his times say. Wright reminds me of Packer wide receiver Greg Jennings, although Wright isn't quite as smooth in and out of breaks. With big, physical receivers in Decker and Thomas opposite him, Wright is an ideal fit to play in the slot for this Denver team.

Round 2 (Pick 57): Trumaine Johnson CB Montana (Pos. Rank: 8, Overall Rank: 58)

Champ Bailey is a Hall of Fame corner, but turns 34 this offseason and isn't the dynamic player he once was. Johnson isn't a ballhawk, but can be dynamic with the ball in his hands and returned kicks at Montana. At almost 6-2 and over 200 pounds, Johnson has the strength and speed to stick NFL wide receivers despite coming from a non-FBS school. If a defensive tackle falls to the Broncos here, there's certainly a possibility to draft one, but Johnson has better value than any available in my mock here.

Round 3 (Pick 87): Mike Martin DT Michigan (Pos. Rank: 11, Overall Rank: 85)
It may seem strange to see Martin here when, just a few days ago, I had him to the Packers with their third round pick, but these mocks are constantly evolving. Martin fills too big an obvious need to get past Denver here and while the Broncos would ideally want a player with a little bit better bulk, playing a 4-3 defense allows Martin to play alongside an end and tackle which masks some of his size limitations. Being in a 4-3 also helps make up for Martin's lack of ideal arm length because most of his movement will be confined inside. Martin is still one of my sleepers and would be a solid contributor on this defense. 

Overall 

Denver has some obvious needs at receiver and on defense, all of which are addressed here. Wright and Martin could be Day 1 starters while Johnson would have a chance to get significant playing time early. Based on value this is a decent to good draft (+3), but when you account for the fact that the team's biggest needs were also addressed, it becomes an excellent one. If the Broncos are able to find a suitable inside partner for Martin and another running back, the Broncos would have a pretty solid personnel base heading into 2012.

Final Thought

Tim Tebow went 7-4 with this team last year and the guy completed 46% of his passes. Another 8-8 season seems like the basement for this team assuming Manning can be the starter for 16 games. Even a much tougher schedule doesn't seem like it should hold the Broncos back from at least fighting for a wild card spot. If they can add a few skill position players and some beef on the defensive line, this is a balanced team. With Manning running the show, I expect they're also a team no one will want to play in December and January. While likely not a true "contender" in terms of the the NFL's tiers, Denver is at least a dark horse. Expect them to be dangerous.