2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Buffalo Bills

Buffalo's season started with more promise than any in recent memory. A 5-2 start had Bills fans thinking playoffs.

After narrow losses to Cincinnati and New York sandwiched a gutty victory over the Eagles, the Bills dusted the Redskins 23-0 and appeared to be a team to reckon with in the AFC.

Instead, the Bills free-fell from the standings, finishing the year 1-8 in the last nine games, including a Week 17 loss to the Patriots in which the Bills lead 21-0.

Buffalo locked up their starting quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick, to a long-term deal and have one of the best stable of running backs in the league.

Stevie Johnson signed a mega-deal to stay with the team, but outside of him, this receiving core lacks playmakers.

Mario Williams brought some legitimacy to a waning franchise by signing with the Bills this offseason. He and Mark Anderson, signed from the Patriots, will provide an immediate impact on what was a terrible defense.

This is a young team and they showed it last year by being unable to handle the pressure of winning games early.

Bringing in Williams and Anderson, both talented, veteran players, could help with the mental toughness of this team, who may not have believed they were as good as their record indicated early in the year.

The AFC East will be tough as long as Tom Brady plays there and the Jets are in a make-or-break season. But both of those things were no less true last year when the Bills started so hot.

With the way this offense can score, the Bills will at least be a team to be taken seriously next year.

Offense
It's pretty clear where the strengths and weaknesses of this offense reside.

Fred Jackson looked like the most complete back in football before an injury derailed his season. C.J. Spiller finally flashed his explosive talents last year, but was inconsistent at times and Tashard Choice is the best third running back in the game.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is getting paid like a franchise quarterback, although he's never going to be Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers. He is, however, a terrific leader, a hard-worker and knows the game. He can be your quarterback on a Super Bowl team, although this team is far from that point.

In terms of holes, the Bills' offensive line is a mess. Demetrius Bell signed with the Eagles in the offseason, leaving a glaring hole at left tackle. Chad Rinehart, a starter at guard, and Kraig Urbik the starting center, both have tested the free agent market, although neither has signed a new deal.

Likely, one or both of those players will return to Buffalo given the dire straights this team is in along the line, but don't be surprised to see the Bills target multiple offensive lineman in a draft heavy with line talent.

Getting a tight end who can be a threat in the passing game and a solid blocker would go a long way to covering some of the deficiencies of this line.

Key Free Agents: Demetrius Bell OT (signed w/ Eagles), Tashard Choice (re-signed w/ Bills), Derek Hagan WR (re-signed w/ Bills), Ruvell Martin (re-signed w/ Bills), Roscoe Parish (signed w/ Chargers), Chad Rinehart G, Kraig Urbik G,

Defense
Mario Williams brings legitimacy to any defense. After drawing controversy as the #1 overall pick in 2006, Williams has established himself as one of the premier pass rushers in the league.

His 6 year $100 million tells you that and although he wasn't a perfect fit for the Texans 3-4 defense, he has 100 million reasons to be on board with whatever defense they plan to play in Buffalo.

It is curious though, that the Bills, in signing Williams and Mark Anderson, signed two ends who have played almost exclusively in the 4-3 system, which may mean the Bills, who tinkered with a 3-4 defense, will play 4-3 almost exclusively next season.

That means the Bills will need to add some help for Nick Barnett at linebacker, particularly given Barnett's limited size inside. Super Mario and Anderson will help a defense that finished 19th against the pass last year, but getting better linebacker play will be a must if Buffalo hopes to do better than 28th against the run.

Buffalo has a solid safety tandem, but has struggled to find the right corners. Leodis McKelvin hasn't lived up to his first-round talent and Aaron Williams was forced to play as a rookie last season.

Building depth there would go a long way in stymieing the high-powered passing offenses in the AFC.

Key Free Agents:Reggie Corner CB, Andra Davis ILB, Bryan Scott DB (re-signed w/ Bills), Reggie Torbor DE,

Draft Targets

Needs: OL,WR,LB,DB,TE
Round 1 (Pick 10): Riley Reiff OT Iowa (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 11)

To me, this is a no-brainer. Reiff is clearly the second best offensive tackle in this draft and the Bills desperately need his toughness. Reiff isn't the pass-blocker that Matt Khalil is, but few are given that Khalil is considered by many to be one of the best tackle prospects to come out in the last several years. The former Iowa All-Big Ten selection faced some pretty fierce pass rushers in his conference and consistently held his own, although run blocking is his bread and butter. He compares favorably with former Iowa tackle and current Green Bay tackle Bryan Bulaga. Michael Floyd may be temping here, but the need and value for Reiff at this spot is too great to pass up.

Round 2 (Pick 41): Dwayne Allen TE Clemson (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 42)

Though not the great athlete of his draft class piers Coby Fleener and Orson Charles, Allen may be the most complete tight end in this draft class. He's a solid in-line blocker and a big bodied receiver with terrific hands. He isn't going to be a field-splitting target like Antonio Gates or Vernon Davis, but I've compared him a number of times to Heath Miller, a player who can help your offense in a number of ways and if you don't account for him, will beat you. Allen has fallen down boards a little bit as a result of some inconsistent play and the athletic display put on by Charles and Fleener in post-season workouts, but Allen has gotten first round buzz and would be an ideal fit for the Bills.

Round 3 (Pick 71): Chase Minnifield CB Virginia (Pos. Rank: 10, Overall Rank: 72)

If Buffalo thinks a player like Bruce Irvin can play linebacker in their system, he might make more sense here and would give the Bills some freakishly athletic pass rushers. Irvin's limited history as a linebacker though, may give way for a corner like Minnifield to be the pick. If it weren't for injuries and concerns about his deep speed, Minnifield might actually have a shot to crack the first round. As a press corner, the former Virginia Cavalier has few piers in this class and has the ball skills to back up his in-your-face style. He's also a solid tackler, which means lining him up on slot receivers in nickel coverage would be an ideal situation for him, at least early in his career. You don't lose much if the offense runs out of multiple receiver sets, particularly if you let him press, because he's good enough in run support to play at the line of scrimmage.

Overall

This is one of those drafts where the numeric draft value (-3), doesn't tell the whole story. Reiff is a Day 1 starter out of necessity, but is a good value in the top 10. Allen, although he may not have the ceiling of a guy like Coby Fleener, doesn't have a low floor either and is, at worst, the kind of player the Bills can use regularly in two tight end sets, boosting both their run and pass game. Minnifield has major potential thanks to his press coverage abilities, an en vogue defense given its effectiveness against spread offenses like the Patriots who rely so much on timing. A draft like this could set the Bills up for success this season and beyond by filling the team's most pressing needs.

Final Thought

We won't know if last year's 5-2 start was a mirage or the real deal for the Bills because the addition of Mario Williams could have such a profound impact on this team. Teaming Williams and Anderson with Marcel Dareus presents a real problem for opposing offenses and could yield drastic gains defensively. Even if the Bills don't improve much offensively, they were still in the top half of every major offensive category last year, meaning an improved defense should be enough to win another game or two. It's hard to see a team with this much talent regressing next year, but improving on their 6-10 record may be tough given their division. New England and New York certainly boast better teams and Miami, unlike Buffalo, got a lot better as the season went on last year. Next year will be Year 1 in finding out just how big a return the Bills will get from their $100 million man.

2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus:Houston Texans

The Houston Texans have been a trendy playoff pick by the so-called experts for the last several years. With an explosive offense and a young defense, it was easy to see why so many thought this was a dangerous team.

2011 was the year they finally put it all together, thanks mostly to the help of an undrafted free agent and a coach who was run out of his last job.

Arian Foster, who slipped through the scouting cracks, is one of the most versatile players in football and leads the Texans' two-headed running back attack with Ben Tate.

But truly, the different between last year's team and any other Texan team was the defense, which finished in the top five in passing, rushing and total defense.

Wade Phillips, the sacrificial lamb in Dallas, turned around a pathetic defense and turned them into a championship level unit.

Adding Johnathan Joseph in free agency as well as J.J. Watt and Brooks Reed in the draft made this defense disruptive and dominating at times.

Even the loss of former #1 overall pick Mario Williams to injury was mitigated by the rise of third-year linebacker Connor Barwin, who played tight end in college.

General Manager Rick Smith doesn't get nearly enough credit for drafting and developing players as well as supplementing the team with free agents.
  
Offense
Houston has the best running game in football, the best wide receiver in football and a quarterback who, despite his talents, can't stay healthy.

Had Peyton Manning picked Houston, they'd become the favorite in the AFC without question. Even with a rookie 7th round pick last year, the Texans won a playoff game.

Matt Schaub is an above average quarterback, but can't stay on the field. Unfortunately, Andre Johnson has had similar problems staying healthy.

This is offense can still be effective because Foster and Tate are so good, but adding a receiver to compliment Johnson and a quarterback to groom are necessities for Houston.

Also, one of the more puzzling moves this offseason was the Texans cutting Eric Winston, one of the best right tackles in the game. Getting some help upfront will certainly be on the list of priorities for the draft.


Key Free Agents: Mike Brisiel G, Bryant Johnson WR, Chris Myers (re-signed w/ Texans), Neil Rackers K, Matt Turk P, Eric Winston OT (signed w/ Chiefs)  

Defense 

This defense was so good last season, Mario Williams season-ending injury didn't slow them down a bit. They have a powerful pair of outside linebackers and one of the best young defensive players in football in Watt.

Letting Williams walk in free agency would have been exceedingly disturbing if not for the dearth of young defensive talent.

Houston did trade Demeco Ryans to the Eagles in a somewhat surprising move, but apparently Ryans was not popular either with the coaches or the players. Getting a linebacker to shore up the middle should be on the list this offseason.

That list will also include an upgrade at safety and perhaps some added depth at corner despite the improvement in the pass defense last year.

Kareem Jackson played better than he showed as a rookie, but in a division with young, talented quarterbacks, loading up on corners is a smart move.

Key Free Agents: Jason Allen CB (signed w/ Bengals), Tim Dobbins ILB, Mario Williams DE/OLB (signed w/ Bills),

Draft Targets

Needs: S,WR,OL,DE,QB

Round 1 (Pick 26): Stephen Hill WR Georgia Tech (Pos. Rank 4, Overall Rank: 28)
Hill was miscast somewhat on a George Tech team built to run the ball. When Hill ran a 4.3 40 at the combine, scouts went back to look at the 6-4, 215 pound Hill burn corners deep repeatedly at Tech. Part of that obviously comes from a strong play action game, but with teams loading up to stop Foster and needing a double team on Johnson, Hill would have single coverage all game in this offense. Plus, he'd get to learn the position from the best in the business.

Round 2 (Pick 59): Zebrie Sanders OT Florida State (Pos. Rank: 6, Overall Rank: 61)

With Houston's surprising split with Winston, the Texan offensive line suddenly needs some help. Sanders is one of the high risk/high reward prospects in this draft with solid technique, excellent athleticism and high intangibles. His play simply didn't always measure up to his vast abilities. That being said, the Texans need the help and since Arian Foster could probably run through brick walls for 1,000 yards, Sanders can only help.


Round 3 (Pick 76 F/ Eagles): Brock Osweiler QB Arizona State (Pos. Rank: 6, Overall Rank: 80)
Don't be surprised at all to see Houston take a quarterback in the first three rounds. There are a couple of guys who are just a year or two away from starting and if Houston thinks it can contend right away, nabbing a Brandon Weeden in the second round isn't out of the question. If they're willing to be patient though, Osweiler could pay dividends. A massive kid with a big arm and outstanding athleticism for someone 6-7 (He originally committed to Gonzaga to play basketball), Osweiler has every  physical tool you could want. With a few years of seasoning and perhaps a few games of temporary fill-in work if Shaub gets hurt, he could be one of the steals of the draft.

Overall 

There are some reaches in this draft and the value (-8) isn't outstanding, but the upside is tremendous. All three could turn out to be solid starters and Osweiler, had he returned to school, may have been a first round pick in 2013. Moving up in the third round as part of the Demeco Ryans trade could give Houston the flexibility to grab a quarterback high, whether it's Osweiler or Foles, even Cousins if he falls. Expect some offensive help early in the draft and some defensive depth late.

Final Thought

Houston is the most balanced team in the AFC, boasting a terrific young offense and great young defense. Losing Mario Williams long-term could be a mistake, but Barwin and Reed were terrorizing off the edge last year with Watt and if the Texans can add a defensive back to the mix, that defense will be scary. If this team is healthy, they could win 12 or 13 games and have to be considered one of the favorites in the AFC after their taste of postseason success this past year.