2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: St. Louis Rams

If there is a team picking in the top 10 capable of a quick turnaround, the St. Louis Rams are that team.

St. Louis will have massive roster turnover from the 2011 to the 2012 season, which is a good thing for a team finishing with just two wins last season.

Jeff Fisher was brought on board to bring some credibility back to the Rams and with Sam Bradford healthy, along with a sizable influx of free agent talent, St. Louis is poised for a bounceback season.

Will they make the playoffs? I doubt it, but when you go from an 8-8 team to a 2-14 team, thanks in large part to injuries, it's not hard to make a return to .500 a realistic goal.

The Rams offense was one of the worst in the league last year with Sam Bradford and Stephen Jackson hurt much of the year.

Bare cupboards at the skill positions were the biggest problem for St. Louis and with the injuries, there wasn't time for the below average players to develop any rhythm or continuity.

Some veteran talent was brought on board and the Rams have three picks in the top 40 thanks to the trade with the Redskins.

A full offseason with better talent surrounding him should help the development of Sam Bradford who still has a chance to be an elite quarterback in the league.

His development hinges on this draft, particularly with the glut of picks the Rams have at their disposal. They've played the free agent market well: let the lackluster players leave and seek good value at other positions.

Now, we'll see if they can do the same in the draft.  

Offense
The Greatest Show on Turf is a distant memory when you look at the players on this offense. Brandon Lloyd, the team's best receiver last year signed with the Patriots in the offseason.

Former Eagle Steve Smith was signed coming off injury, but if he is healthy he'd be a solid possession receiver. That being said, getting some explosive talent on offense remains the biggest focus of the team for this season and beyond.

There are plenty of talented receivers, a few quality tight ends and some good running backs to choose from in this draft. St. Louis would be wise to grab one of each and maybe a few of the pass-catchers to facilitate the development of Bradford.

Along the front, the Rams should be an improved team, signing Scott Wells from Green Bay and Quinn Ojinnaka from Indianapolis. Wells is one of the best centers in the game and Ojinnaka does have some starting experience.


St. Louis has a franchise quarterback and running back, but essentially nothing else on offense. They could spend their first three picks on offense and still need help.

Key Free Agents:Danny Amendola WR, Billy Bajema TE, Jacob Bell G (signed w/ Bengals), Jason Brown C, Mark Clayton WR, Kellen Clemens QB (re-signed w/ Rams), A.J. Feeley QB, Adam Goldberg OT, Mark LeVoir OT, Brandon Lloyd WR (signed w/ Patriots), Jerious Norwood RB, Stephen Spach, Cadillac Williams RB, Tony Wragge C

Defense
This front four was a big reason why the Rams finished 7th in the league in passing. That stat though, is a little misleading because the Rams were behind so many games late, teams ran the ball to protect leads.

When it came to keeping teams from scoring, the Rams were 26th in the league in points allowed. St. Louis has quality pass rushers with Chris Long and Robert Quinn. Long-time defensive end James Hall was cut to give Quinn more playing time and the ultra-talented, former Tar Heel is poised for a break-out season.

Trevor Laws, Kendall Langord and Williams Hayes were all signed to bolster this defensive front and improve on a defense that was second to last in stopping the run. A continued push through the draft to get better along the front seven should be expected.

Corner and linebacker are the two major areas of concern for the Rams. Cortland Finnegan, a Pro Bowl corner in Tennessee, was signed to improve a horrendous secondary. Jo-Lonn Dunbar was signed from the Saints to bring some veteran leadership, but he's hardly an elite talent.

With a deep corner class, the Rams should be able to find some young talent to fill the holes in the secondary. It's worth it to spend an early pick on a linebacker because the depth of this class falls off considerably after the first few players.

The holes on this team are as obvious as they are numerous and St. Louis can't go wrong with whichever positions they chose to address.  

Key Free Agents: Mikail Baker DB (signed w/ Chiefs), Justin Bannan DT (signed w/ Broncos), Ron Bartell CB (signed w/ Raiders), James Butler DB, Chris Chamberlain OLB (signed w/ Saints), Craig Dahl SS, Gary Gibson DT, Al Harris CB, Roderick Hood CB, Bryan Kehl OLB (signed w/ Redskins), Justin King CB, Ben Leber OLB, Brady Poppinga OLB,

Draft Targets

Needs: WR,DB,OL,OLB,DT


Round 1 (Pick 6 F/ Redskins): Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 6)

Silly season has thrown out a lot of ideas to what might happen with this pick. Some believe the Rams could even trade back up to get Trent Richardson to replace Stephen Jackson. St. Louis is reported to be very high on Richardson and Mississippi State tackle Fletcher Cox and there are teams apparently willing to trade up with Tampa Bay to snatch Cox before the Rams. Blackmon, though, makes the most sense here under just about any circumstance. He's the best receiver in this draft and is just a step below elite. Especially on turf, he's explosive enough to be a #1 receiver and I think he is physical enough to overcome some of his athletic deficiencies. The talk about Blackmon being overrated, to me, is silliness. 

Round 2 (Pick 33): Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 35)
As there tends to be at the start of the second round, the Rams will have a first round talent to pick from here. Jenkins was long considered a first round pick, but off the field concerns have scared some teams away. Needs in the secondary might just be too pressing for the Rams to pass here and with another second round pick just six selections later, St. Louis can afford to take a calculated risk here. Jenkins, as a strict coverman, is without peers in this draft. His quickness and instincts are terrific, but he's not a great tackler and his work ethic is a question mark. This is a boom or bust pick, but one that the Rams can afford to make.

Round 2 (Pick 39 F/ Redskins): Zach Brown OLB North Carolina (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 38)
After going after a high risk/high reward player at 33, a pick like Brown doesn't make as much sense, but the value is right and Brown's athletic skills are unquestioned. Brown just might be the best athlete at any position in the draft. His unmatched speed is actually a hindrance occasionally, because he'll overrun plays, but if he can throttle down a little and play more under control, he can be a difference-maker. Running back Lamar Miller or offensive tackle Mike Adams could also make sense here, but Brown has the most upside of that group and plays a position of extreme need.

Round 3 (Pick 65): Orson Charles TE Georgia (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 66)

I love this pick for the Rams because Charles is the kind of player who could be a monster in this offense. On turf, his speed and strength would be amplified and with a quality running game, Charles could be extremely dangerous in the middle of the field. From an athletic standpoint, much like Brown, Charles is peerless in this draft. He definitely passes the eye test, but his strength doesn't make up for his relative lack of size. That means blocking won't be his forte, but as a receiver, Charles could be devastating. It wouldn't take much for him to become Bradford's favorite target in short order, particularly since Bradford loved to use the tight ends at Oklahoma (the last time he had quality tight ends).

Overall
Four picks in the top 70 should net you at least two starters and this group could have four and this class would undoubtedly have the most upside of any in the NFL. The athletes in this draft would be terrific on the field turf at the Edwards Jones Dome and with the veteran talent brought in this offseason, would create a great balance of you and experienced players. Jeff Fisher wasn't brought to St. Louis to not make an impact. He was part of the decision makers when the Titans took Vince Young and more recently Chris Johnson, when it was obvious their biggest needs were at wide receiver. Young had one of the best rookie years for a quarterback in recent memory and CJ2K turned into one of the most explosive players in the history of the league (last season was the exception not the rule). Fisher is here to make an impact and he'll get impact players in this draft. 

Final Thought
Again, I think the Rams are a bounceback team in 2012. If they gave an award for comeback team of the year, I think St. Louis would have to be considered a favorite. I'm not sure they can win enough games to make the playoffs ahead of the teams in the East and North, but they're going to be much improved. With a draft like this, the Rams could quickly become one of the most athletic and explosive teams in the league. For this team, though, 2012 isn't the end goal. They can't and won't compete this upcoming season for a title, but in the next three or four years, I think there's reason to believe they can. Bradford and Long form the same kind of offensive/defensive cornerstone duo like Stafford/Suh, Rodgers/Matthews, Romo/Ware and the other elite combo's in the NFC. A solid draft would put the Rams on the right track to take the proverbial next step.

2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Seattle Seahawks

It's hard to imagine a team with Pete Carroll as a head coach flying under the radar, but that's what the Seahawks did last year to some degree.

Despite having a fluid situation at quarterback (that's putting it gently), and dealing with slew of injuries, Seattle won eight games and their battle for the playoffs went into the last month of the season. 

This offseason has typified the lack of exposure and credit the Seahawks have gotten since Carroll took over.

Seattle made the two most under-appreciated signings of the year, nabbing Matt Flynn from Green Bay and Jason Jones from Tennessee.

Peyton Manning and Mario Williams were the flashier names at their respective positions, but Flynn and Jones are both capable starters with plenty of room to get better. Plus, Flynn will be 27 when the season starts and Jones will be 25, both in the prime of their careers.

One of the biggest shortcomings of Seattle last year was the play of their quarterbacks. Flynn gives them a steadying influence on the offense given the way he prepares and the leadership qualities he possesses.

Flynn's skill set is obviously not on par with Peyton Manning, but Manning at his age, coming off an injury, is certainly not the player who won four MVP's.

There's no question if you could have one over the next five years, your returns are much more likely to continue for all five of those seasons with Flynn under center.

Jones, for his part, is a young, talented player who should flourish under the direction of Carroll, especially with the talent he'd have around him in Seattle. The Seahawks defense got better as the year went on and if they can fill some holes at corner and linebacker, should again be a terrific defensive team.  


Offense
Seattle lost it's best offensive lineman to free agency when Robert Gallery signed with New England. This line has struggled and it's taken serious beast-mode performances from Marshawn Lynch to carve out yards with this group.


Frank Omiyale was signed from Chicago as was former 'SC Trojan Deuce Lutui from Arizona to improve that line. Lutui has been a starter for the Cardinals for the last few seasons and Omiyale started 3 games for the Bears last year.

Neither is a big-time upside player and getting an elite offensive lineman should be a priority for the Seahawks.

As far as skill position players, the Seahawks have an above average group of receivers if they can stay healthy. Sydney Rice should be better this year health-wise and playing with Flynn should help as well.

Doug Baldwin was a break-out player for the 'Hawks last year and although he may not be an elite receiver, he certainly is a more than capable starter.

After losing tight end John Carlson in free agency, a tight end would certainly help supplement Seattle's weak offensive line, and give Flynn a big target in the red zone.

Key Free Agents: John Carlson TE (signed w/ Vikings), Justin Forsett RB, Robert Gallery G (signed w/ Patriots), Mike Gibson OT (signed w/ Eagles), Paul McQuistan G (re-signed w/ Seahawks), Charlie Whitehurst QB (signed w/ Chargers), 

Defense
Seattle boasts one of the best front fours in football and has arguably the best young safety duo in the league, a big reason why the Seahawks finished 7th in the league in points and 9th in total defense.

Barrett Ruud was signed to fill the hole left by David Hawthorne who left for New Orleans. K.J. Wright is a decent starter at linebacker and at 22 years-old has some potential. On the other hand, he's not a world-beater and the Seahawks could use a top-flight talent there.

At corner, the Seahawks have fallen precipitously over the last few years, thanks in part to both player loss and player decline. Several years ago, Marcus Trufant was considered an elite corner and has hardly played up to that level lately.

Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas are an outstanding combination and can play in all phases of the game. They can cover the deficiencies of the corners in front, but getting some improved talent there could really make this secondary a look-down group.

Adding some talent to the linebacking group and the defensive backfield could help the Seahawks compete for a playoff birth next year, especially with the type of offenses they'll face if they do make the postseason.  


Key Free Agents: Atari Bigby S (signed w/ Chargers), Raheem Brock DE, Red Bryant DE (re-signed w/ Seahawks), Colin Cole DT, Heath Farwell LB (re-signed w/ Seahawks), Anthony Hargrove DE (signed w/ Packers), David Hawthorne ILB (signed w/ Saints), Leroy Hill LB (re-signed w/ Seahawks), Roy Lewis DB (re-signed w/ Seahawks), Matt McCoy LB ( re-signed w/ Seahawks), Marcus Trufant CB (re-signed w/ Seahawks), David Vobora LB, Jimmy Wilkerson DE,

Draft Targets

Needs: OL,LB,CB,TE,WR


Round 1 (Pick 12): Melvin Ingram OLB/DE South Carolina (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 12)

Ingram is considered a top 8 pick by some and may not fall this far. I'm concerned about his size and where he plays at the next level. That being said, he's one of the most versatile defenders in the draft, able to play end, tackle or even linebacker. Ingram and is powerful, yet quick and has a knack for penetrating at the point of attack. Seattle could use much like Von Miller in Denver, as an outside linebacker in their 4-3 system who regularly lines up near the line of scrimmage. On passing downs, Seattle could put him anywhere along the defensive front and cause serious havoc with twists and stunts. Dre Kirkpatrick from Alabama would be a solid choice here too, but Ingram would probably be too good to pass up if he falls this far.

Round 2 (Pick 43): Mike Adams OT Ohio State (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 40)

This is an ideal situation for the Seahawks. Adams has had some buzz as a top 20 pick and has all the skills to be a left tackle in the NFL. Unfortunately, his motor and focus are inconsistent. Pairing Adams with former first round pick Russell Okung would give Seattle a terrific young tandem of tackles. Miami running back Lamar Miller would be a nice compliment to Marshawn Lynch and would probably be available here, but if Adams falls, he would have terrific value and could be a Day 1 starter in Seattle. His pass-protection skills would be a big help to Matt Flynn.

Round 3 (Pick 75): Jayron Hosley CB Virginia Tech (Pos. Rank: 11, Overall Rank: 76)

Hosley is another player who had been considered a first round pick at one point. As a sophomore, he lead the nation in interceptions, but his junior year was marred by injuries and some inconsistent play. He's a physical corner, who doesn't mind mixing it up in run support either. Virginia Tech has produced some of the best corners in the league over the last few years and if Hosley falls this far, he could be a steal for a team willing to bank on him staying healthy. His instincts and ball skills are certainly worthy of first round consideration, but his size (5-10 172) is a concern. As a nickel corner though, Hosley could be a big-time playmaker. 

Overall

This has a chance to be an outstanding draft for the Seahawks. If this scenario plays out, the Seahawks get three starting-caliber players, all three of whom are capable of being Pro Bowl players in the right situation. Tackle and corner are the teams two biggest needs and the Seahawks are able to get first round talent outside of the top 40. The value (2+) only accounts for the rankings of the players as they stand now and while potential is taken into account in that positioning, the numbers by themselves don't account for the ceilings of these players. This could be a boom or bust situation and while Pete Carroll hasn't been a guy to go after splashy names in the draft, these players would be significant upgrades to needy units on this team even if they don't reach their full potential.

Final Thought

The wins and losses don't tell the whole story for the Seahawks under Pete Carroll. He got the Seahawks into the playoffs in his first season and although he's only 14-18 as a coach, his team plays hard and is next to impossible to beat at home. Adding Flynn, this team has a legitimate quarterback for the first time since Matt Hasselbeck was healthy and in his prime. The two, in so many ways, are similar players including their history with the Packers and waiting behind a league MVP. Flynn isn't going to make many Pro Bowls in the NFC with guys like Rodgers, Brees, Vick and Romo ahead of him, but that doesn't mean he won't play at a high level. In fact, with improved quarterback play, Seattle has a chance to get back to the playoffs this year.

2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: San Francisco 49ers

The Bay area is back in a big way thanks to Jim Harbaugh and a stiffing defense.

San Francisco hasn't been a  consistently competent franchise since Steve Young was forced from the game (the brief respite with Jeff Garcia doesn't count), and with Harbaugh in place with a slew of young talent, the 49ers are poised to regain their place as perennial powers.

Alex Smith finally played well at quarterback, though is still vastly disappointing as a #1 overall pick. The running game with Frank Gore was tremendous and Smith never made killer mistakes.

With a defense as good as San Fran's, that was usually enough.

Getting better offensively, particularly becoming more explosive, will allow this team to be a major factor again in the NFC.

Offense

In one phrase, San Francisco's offense last year was "good enough." They didn't turn the ball over and scored better than you might think, finishing 11th overall in points scored.

Still, the passing game was lackluster, finishing 29th in the league in yards, despite Alex Smith's efficiency. Adding Randy Moss and Mario Manningham in free agency was a big step forward.

Moss is basically a no-risk move since anything he brings them is an added bonus. If he can stretch the field vertically, he will open up the middle of the field for Vernon Davis who already is a freak athlete and can't be covered by a linebacker.

Manningham will fill the underneath routes, but can also get over the top of defenses as he showed making the decisive catch in the Super Bowl.

Expect the 49ers to maintain their identity as a run-first team, but if Smith can improve in Year 2 with Harbaugh, expect more big plays from this offense. If they can turn those plays into points, I don't see too many teams being able to score enough on their defense to beat the Niners.

Key Free Agents: Braylon Edwards WR, Ted Ginn Jr. WR, Josh Morgan (signed w/ Washington), Chilo Rachal G,  

Defense 

Everyone is back and this defense will only get better. Pick up a corner in the draft for depth and a team that, heading into last season looked like a bubble playoff team, would head into 2012 as a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

Aldon Smith was a revelation as a rookie rushing the passer and with Justin Smith, forms one of the best DL/OLB combinations in the league.

The front seven is physically imposing, dominating and nasty. You just can't run on them and when you do pass, they get after you in a big way.

I continue to be dubious of the secondary and expect that a guy like Carlos Rogers, who just got paid, will revert to his Redskin form dropping interceptions and struggling to stay healthy. It's called reverting to the mean. Even so, this pass rush is good enough to cover up the secondary's lack of elite-level talent.

This is a championship defense. Period.

Key Free Agens: Reggie Smith S, Carlos Rogers (re-signed w/ 49ers), Tavares Gooden (re-signed w/ 49ers),

Draft Targets

Needs: CB,OL,S,RB,DL,TE

Round 1 (Pick 30): Coby Fleener TE Stanford (Pos. Rank 1, Overall Rank: 32)
This may seem too obvious with the Harbaugh/Stanford connection, not to mention that the 49ers already have one of the elite tight ends in the league, but there isn't value at the other available positions and as the Patriots proved, two tight ends are better than one. Fleener is a terrific receiving tight end and would be a nightmare for defenses to defend alongside Davis. Stephon Gilmore from South Carolina, who can also return kicks, would make sense here too.

Round 2 (Pick 61): Kelechi Osemeli OL Iowa State (Pos. Rank: 5, Overall Rank: 63)
As I mentioned above, Chilo Rachal is a free agent and Anthony Davis hasn't been the kind of franchise player the 49ers hoped when they used an early first round draft pick on him. Osemeli can play guard or tackle (in the event San Francisco chooses to give up on Davis), making him a versatile option for this offense that relies so heavily on winning upfront. Good value here at a need position, especially on a team without many holes. 

Round 3 (Pick 92): Tyrone Crawford DE Boise State (Pos. Rank: 11, Overall Rank: 95)
If I were picking and Brock Osweiler fell to me here, I'd take him because I don't think Colin Kaepernick is the future of this franchise. Osweiler, a big-time talent, could be. San Francisco, though, will likely be looking to add depth to a defensive front which relies heavily on Justin Smith's ability to wreck opposing offensive lines (which he does regularly). Ray McDonald, who plays opposite him, is a solid player, underrated even. On the other hand, depth at that position is scare and Crawford is a big body, without a really quick burst upfield. He uses his hands well and can play that defensive end position in the 49ers 3-4 defense which allows their linebackers so much room to make plays.

Overall 

From a value standpoint, this isn't a tremendous draft when you consider where players ranked and where the Niners will have picked them (-7). On the other hand, as I type this, Fleener, at 6'6'' is running a wind-aided sub 4.5 40 yard dash at his pro day. His value at 30 is almost certainly understated here. Furthermore, both Crawford and Osemeli are versatile players who can help San Francisco at positions of need right away. When you have a team already full of talent, you can reach to fill holes.

Final Thought

Without much help, San Francisco would have been the favorite to win the NFC West and a threat to take the entire NFC. Adding Randy Moss and Mario Manningham solidifies their standing as a contender in the NFC, if not one of the favorites. Depth is a question at some positions, which means an injury could derail their season. If the 49ers can use the draft to build up some of that depth and supplement an already loaded roster, expected another double-digit win season and playoff run for this burgeoning young power.