2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: San Diego Chargers

Fans in San Diego (they have those right?) may not recognize their team in the 2012.

Turnover has marked the offseason to this point and with a top 20 pick, even more new faces will likely be headed to this starting line up.

The days of Jamaal Williams and Shawne Merriman dominating opposing offenses are long gone.

LaDanian Tomlinson hasn't been in San Diego in two years and his presence has been sorely missed.

Adding Eddie Royal, Robert Meachem and Roscoe Parish makes this team significantly more explosive, but the team's best offensive playmaker, Vincent Jackson is heading to Tampa.

Between those three, this receiving core is much deeper and has a trio of guys who can all win 1-on-1 match ups. They'll simply get it down in a much different way. 

Defensively are where the biggest questions stand for the Chargers. Antwan Barnes is one of the most underrated pass rushers in the NFL, but outside of that, San Diego doesn't have dynamic players around him.

Last year's first round pick Corey Liuget hardly lived up to his name and the Chargers struggled to generate pressure last season.

The secondary is also average at best and could use some young talent.

In the AFC West, the margin for error is a little larger with Oakland rebuilding and the Chiefs in considerable flux. We don't know what Peyton Manning will give Denver, leaving the Chargers with an opportunity to win the division and get back into the playoffs.  

Norv Turner's job is probably on the line if they miss out.

  
Offense
No team re-tooled their offense like the Chargers this offseason. No single player is as good as Vincent Jackson, but the sum of the parts will make this team more consistent.

Adding Dante Rosario was an underrated move as was Le'Ron McClain. Bringing in another tight end could be an option given the age and fragile health of Antonio Gates.

The offensive line is a question, with Jared Gaither being re-signed but Marcus McNeil, a former #1 pick, being allowed to walk.

Along with getting better upfront, the Chargers do need more help in the backfield since Ryan Matthews hasn't shown anything special, nor has he been able to stay healthy. 

Special teams, which have been a joke in southern California, should get better with Parrish and Michael Spurlock who were signed this offseason.


Key Free Agents: Patrick Crayton WR, Jared Gaither (re-signed w/ Chargers), Jacob Hester FB, Vincent Jackson WR (signed w/ Buccaneers), Randy McMichael TE (re-signed w/ Chargers), Marcus McNeil OT, Mike Tolbert RB (signed w/ Panthers), Bryan Walters WR (signed w/ Vikings),

Defense
This is where San Diego must get better. The Chargers signed hard-hitting, but inconsistent safety Atari Bigby as well as run-stopping outside linebacker Jarrett Johnson from Baltimore. 

Neither is a big-time playmaker, but both could help this defense next season.

San Diego needs the help too, since they probably only have one blue-chip player on this defense in Eric Weddle, although Barnes is a unique and dynamic talent.

Linebacker, though, is a spot of considerable weakness for San Diego and getting a pass rusher as well as an inside 'backer should be a focus for the Chargers.

Adding some depth at corner is also a must given the depth of receivers in the AFC where the Chargers hope to compete.

Essentially, the Chargers need help everywhere and basically can't go wrong with whichever position they choose to target this offseason.


Key Free Agents: Everette Brown DE (signed w/ Lions),Luis Castillo DE (re-signed w/ Chargers), Stephen Cooper ILB, Na'il Diggs LB, Antonio Garay DT (re-signed w/ Chargers), Steve Gregory (signed w/ Patriots), Tommie Harris DT, Nate Triplett LB

Draft Targets

Needs: OLB,DB,OL,LB,DL,RB
Round 1 (Pick 18): Courtney Upshaw OLB Alabama (Pos. Rank: 3, Overall Rank: 17)

Heading into the Senior Bowl, I had Upshaw as the top outside linebacker prospect in this draft, but he showed impressive power at the point of attack, which caused me to re-categorize him as a defensive end. Most scouts have done the same, although Upshaw is a better fit in a 3-4 defense like San Diego. A violent and powerful rusher, Upshaw would be a perfect compliment to the relentless speed and quickness of Barnes. A safety like Mark Barron to pair with Weddle would be a solid move as well, but given the value and the need, Upshaw makes more sense.

Round 2 (Pick 49): Alfonzo Dennard CB Nebraska (Pos. Rank: 6, Overall Rank: 48)

Given Dennard's relative lack of speed and his affinity for physical play, some scouts believe Dennard is a safety in the NFL. San Diego could use him as a safety or a corner depending on the situation and because he'll likely be used in sub packages as a rookie, the Chargers will have a chance to decide where Dennard fits best long term.  If Lamar Miller falls to the Chargers here, he'd make a lot of sense as well,  but Dennard plays a position of greater need and his versatility enhances the value of this pick.

Round 3 (Pick 79): Mychal Kendricks ILB California (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 79)

Kendricks is shooting up draft boards after torching the turf at the combine. The Chargers like linebackers, even on the inside, with quickness and Kendricks has that in spades. With limited playmakers inside, the Chargers could really use Kendricks, who is nimble enough to fill gaps in the running games as well as to be effective in coverage. Kendricks has reportedly not done well with pre-draft interviews and his instincts are a question, but his athletic ability is unquestioned and if the Chargers are willing to wait, he could be a steal at 79.

Overall

Even if Upshaw is the only pick, this draft would have been a success. Upshaw falling to them is an ideal situation for the Chargers. Everything else is gravy and while Dennard and Kendricks may not be Day 1 starters, both could be in the line up down the road. The numbers say this is a slightly above average draft (1+), but because the needs on this team are so specific, adding players with talent at those positions has to enhance the true value and impact of the draft on this team. Upshaw is the kind of player who could come in as a rookie and make a Pro Bowl team much like Brian Orakpo or Clay Matthews did a few years ago.

Final Thought

If the Chargers do get one of the elite pass rushers in this draft, the Chargers could be an extremely dangerous team. Normally seen as a favorite, San Diego may be riding under the radar with Peyton Manning heading to Denver and so much attention being paid to the returning playoff teams. Given the dynamic offensive talent the Chargers added, this offense will be even better and Phillip Rivers will almost certainly play better. With a set of pass rushers to get after opposing quarterbacks, this team could be a bounce back team and make a run in the playoffs. When this team gets rolling, they could be scary.

Deep Impact: 2012 Free Agents with Most Dramatic Effect on Draft

Projecting the NFL Draft in January, before the February Combine or free agency proves tricky because those top 10 teams in particular, may prefer to solve major roster flaws through proven talent in free agency.

That means without knowing who is signed and who is cut, assigning needs to teams and trying to decide which players teams will target is somewhat of an exercise in futility.

On the other hand, it's really fun to do and people love to read about it.

That being said, there will be free agent movement that we know, without much extrapolation, will impact the NFL Draft. This list is not necessarily in order of importance.

1.) Matt Flynn QB (UFA) Green Bay Packers
The best player at the most important position in the sport (Drew Brees is a free agent, but there's no way he leaves New Orleans). The relative lack of depth at this position in free agency elevates Flynn's worth even further and with so many teams needing a quarterback, the former 7th round pick out of LSU will be be in high demand.

With Andrew Luck a lock at the top of the draft, Robert Griffin III will be a hot trade commodity, as in teams trying to trade up to get him. If a team like Miami or Cleveland locks Flynn up prior to the draft, not only does that have them set at that position, it reduces the value of #2 and #3 picks held by St. Louis and Minnesota respectively, who may be hoping to get a bounty in return from a team hoping to grab RG3.

2.) Vincent Jackson WR (UFA) San Diego Chargers
Jackson is more a representative of the extremely deep group of free agent wide receivers heading into 2012. Wes Welker, Reggie Wayne, DeSean Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, Marques Colton, Stevie Johnson, Brandon Lloyd, Robert Meachem and Mario Manningham are part of a free agent class at a time when the wide receiver position is one of the most valuable in football.

The 2012 Draft has depth as well, but a team like Buffalo may choose not to resign Stevie Johnson in favor of getting a guy like Robert Meachem and drafting someone early. With so many talented players on the market, the relative value of each is decreased both as free agents and potential draft picks. In other words, teams who would otherwise have preferred the value of a draft pick can get a player with proven skills for just a little more money.

With as many as 5 wide receivers considered 1st round quality, keep an eye on free agent wide receivers.

3.) Matt Forte RB (UFA) Chicago Bears 
Without Forte, Chicago's offense was abysmal. In fact, it could be easily argued that Matt Forte was a more important part of the Bear's offense in 2011 than Jay Cutler who was also lost to an injury. Chicago absolutely, positively, without question, must resign him. If I'm Matt Forte, I'm insisting on big-time money because I know how valuable I am to the offense.

However, no one would blame Forte for telling the Bears to shove their contract extension and sign somewhere else. If he does, expect the Bears to be active in the first round with a running back, not to mention if Forte does sign elsewhere, it could effect the stock of Trent Richardson, Lamar Miller and Ryan Wilson who all carry first-round grades.

4.) Cliff Avril DE (UFA) Detroit Lions 
Players like Robert Mathis and John Abraham are also part of the 2012 crop of free-agent pass-rushers, but Avril is only 25 and has by far the most upside in this group. Avril is quick off the edge and agile enough to fit in a 4-3 or 3-4 system where he could be a rush linebacker.

The 2012 class does not have the elite pass-rushers of some year's past although Quinton Coples has #1 overall pick potential and Whitney Mercilus lead FBS in sacks last year. There are only a few elite pass-rushing talents in both the draft and free agency, which means the value of each rises considerably. Expect to see teams trading up to grab their pass-rusher of choice.

5.) Brent Grimes CB (UFA) Atlanta Falcons 
For Atlanta to have any chance to compete with the Saints in the NFC South, they have to keep Brent Grimes. If they can't, he'll be perhaps the most sought after defensive player in free agency. Carlos Rogers, Cortland Finnegan, Brandon Carr and Marcus Trufant are among the other free agents at corner, all of whom are starting caliber players in a league where you can never have too many defensive backs.

Corner is a top-heavy portion of this year's draft with several elite players and then just a bunch of guys. Morris Claiborne, Alfonso Dennard, Dre Kirkpatrick and Janoris Jenkins are top-flight talents, but where they fall may have a lot to do with who moves and who stays in free agency.

Claiborne has to the most to lose as a potential top 3 pick unless St. Louis and Minnesota both choose to address defensive back in free agency.