2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Atlanta Falcons

Last offseason, the Atlanta Falcons believed they were a piece away from the Super Bowl. Coming off a 13-3 season in which they lost to the eventual Super Bowl Champions, Atlanta traded a host of draft picks for Julio Jones in an effort to get more explosive offensively.

Unfortunately for the Falcons, Jones can't rush the passer or cover opposing receivers, and the Falcons, despite making the postseason, failed again to win a game.

The good news is that Jones looks like a potential Pro Bowler and did make the offense better.

Mike Smith is a terrific coach, albeit somewhat impetuous (see his questionable fourth down attempt against the Saints), and his team plays disciplined football. 

Matt Ryan is a franchise quarterback and the offense can score well enough to win in the playoffs.

Defensively, the Falcons simply don't have the talent to play with teams like New Orleans, Green Bay and New York consistently.

Getting better there and along the offensive line are the biggest needs this offseason. Unfortunately, Atlanta doesn't have a first round pick to use but hasn't lost much in free agency and will bring most of their players back from a team that won 10 games last year. 

   
Offense

Matty Ryan is a solid, if unspectacular, quarterback who runs this offense with skill and proficiency. He may never be an elite player like an Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, but certainly belongs a tier below them as franchise signal-callers.

Michael Turner has some miles on his legs, but with Jason Snelling and Jacquizz Rogers in the backfield, Atlanta should be able to rest him enough to stem the wear and tear.

Getting offensive line help should be a priority however, since Atlanta lacks a blue-chip player along their front. This line is just good enough and that isn't good enough to compete against defenses like those they'll face in the playoffs.

Losing Reggie Kelly in free agency also heightens the need to get an heir apparent for Tony Gonzalez. With a young core of skill position players, getting Matt Ryan another athlete at tight end could also amplify the effectiveness of Julio Jones' deep speed.

Also, while Erim Weems wasn't truly a part of the offense, he was one of the best kick returners in the NFL. An early round pick on a corner with return skills could help both the offense and defense.

Key Free Agents: Harry Douglas WR (re-signed w/ Falcons), Reggie Kelly TE, Todd McClure C (re-signed w/ Falcons), Eric Weems WR/KR (signed w/ Bears),

Defense 

There is no doubting some of the talent on this defense with players like John Abraham and Dunta Robinson.

Young defenders like Will Weatherspoon and William Moore are rising stars, but losing Curtis Lofton will be a major blow to the interior.

A pass rusher and a cover corner have to the be the top priorities for a team that finished 20th in passing defense and 18th in points allowed.

This is an elite rush defense, but losing Lofton hurts and as the NFL hurdles into a pass happy generation, this defense has to find a way to put more pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

Whether it's a linebacker or a defense front player, getting an explosive rusher should be Atlanta's top priority, much like they made a deep threat wide receiver last year.

Key Free Agents: John Abraham DE (re-signed w/ Falcons), Kelvin Hayden CB, Curtis Lofton ILB (signed w/ Saints), Mike Peterson OLB, James Sanders S, Vance Walker DT (re-signed w/ Falcons),

Draft Targets

Needs: DB,LB,RB,WR,OL
Round 1 (Pick 22): Traded to Browns in Julio Jones deal

Round 2 (Pick 55): Jared Crick DE/DT Nebraska (Pos. Rank: 6, Overall Rank: 53)

Crick has a versatile skill set and the body to play inside and outside in Atlanta's 4-3 defense. Crick is not the quick twitch rusher John Abraham is, but is powerful at the point of attack and skilled enough with his hands to win 1-on-1 match-ups. The Falcons could also slide him inside on passing downs and use him at tackle to be disruptive up the middle.


Round 3 (Pick 84): Ben Jones C/G Georgia (Pos. Rank: 2, Overall Rank: 87)

The hometown Bulldog could be a starter for a Falcons team without elite skill at guard. Todd McClure was re-signed, but has an injury history and Ben Jones could play either guard or center in the NFL.As a limited athletic, Jones isn't an ideal match for Atlanta's run fits, but he's an extremely smart player who anchors well and has faced the best defensive lineman in the country coming out of the SEC. Could push for a starting job right away.

Overall

Part of the grade for this draft has to be through the lens of the Julio Jones trade. Atlanta essentially used both its 2011 and 2012 first round picks on the Alabama wide receiver and as such, that has to be factored into this discussion. He is probably their best offensive player outside of Matt Ryan and the player Cleveland will get at 22 won't be significantly better than the one Atlanta will get at 55. Crick would be a versatile player for a pass rush that must get help and Jones has solid value at a position of high need in the NFL. The actual value (-1) doesn't show the importance of Julio Jones and this would actually make for a solid draft for the Falcons.

Final Thought

Atlanta needs to dispatch with the "one player away" idea and understand that they simply need to play better when it matters. The Falcons have won some big games in the regular season since Mike Smith took over, but have been an overwhelming disappoint in the playoffs. This team is talented enough to win the NFC South and make a run in the playoffs even with the deficiencies at corner and defensive line. If they can address some of those needs, Atlanta is a dark horse in the NFC, having already proven they're capable of beating the upper echelon teams in their conference.

Deep Impact: 2012 Free Agents with Most Dramatic Effect on Draft

Projecting the NFL Draft in January, before the February Combine or free agency proves tricky because those top 10 teams in particular, may prefer to solve major roster flaws through proven talent in free agency.

That means without knowing who is signed and who is cut, assigning needs to teams and trying to decide which players teams will target is somewhat of an exercise in futility.

On the other hand, it's really fun to do and people love to read about it.

That being said, there will be free agent movement that we know, without much extrapolation, will impact the NFL Draft. This list is not necessarily in order of importance.

1.) Matt Flynn QB (UFA) Green Bay Packers
The best player at the most important position in the sport (Drew Brees is a free agent, but there's no way he leaves New Orleans). The relative lack of depth at this position in free agency elevates Flynn's worth even further and with so many teams needing a quarterback, the former 7th round pick out of LSU will be be in high demand.

With Andrew Luck a lock at the top of the draft, Robert Griffin III will be a hot trade commodity, as in teams trying to trade up to get him. If a team like Miami or Cleveland locks Flynn up prior to the draft, not only does that have them set at that position, it reduces the value of #2 and #3 picks held by St. Louis and Minnesota respectively, who may be hoping to get a bounty in return from a team hoping to grab RG3.

2.) Vincent Jackson WR (UFA) San Diego Chargers
Jackson is more a representative of the extremely deep group of free agent wide receivers heading into 2012. Wes Welker, Reggie Wayne, DeSean Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, Marques Colton, Stevie Johnson, Brandon Lloyd, Robert Meachem and Mario Manningham are part of a free agent class at a time when the wide receiver position is one of the most valuable in football.

The 2012 Draft has depth as well, but a team like Buffalo may choose not to resign Stevie Johnson in favor of getting a guy like Robert Meachem and drafting someone early. With so many talented players on the market, the relative value of each is decreased both as free agents and potential draft picks. In other words, teams who would otherwise have preferred the value of a draft pick can get a player with proven skills for just a little more money.

With as many as 5 wide receivers considered 1st round quality, keep an eye on free agent wide receivers.

3.) Matt Forte RB (UFA) Chicago Bears 
Without Forte, Chicago's offense was abysmal. In fact, it could be easily argued that Matt Forte was a more important part of the Bear's offense in 2011 than Jay Cutler who was also lost to an injury. Chicago absolutely, positively, without question, must resign him. If I'm Matt Forte, I'm insisting on big-time money because I know how valuable I am to the offense.

However, no one would blame Forte for telling the Bears to shove their contract extension and sign somewhere else. If he does, expect the Bears to be active in the first round with a running back, not to mention if Forte does sign elsewhere, it could effect the stock of Trent Richardson, Lamar Miller and Ryan Wilson who all carry first-round grades.

4.) Cliff Avril DE (UFA) Detroit Lions 
Players like Robert Mathis and John Abraham are also part of the 2012 crop of free-agent pass-rushers, but Avril is only 25 and has by far the most upside in this group. Avril is quick off the edge and agile enough to fit in a 4-3 or 3-4 system where he could be a rush linebacker.

The 2012 class does not have the elite pass-rushers of some year's past although Quinton Coples has #1 overall pick potential and Whitney Mercilus lead FBS in sacks last year. There are only a few elite pass-rushing talents in both the draft and free agency, which means the value of each rises considerably. Expect to see teams trading up to grab their pass-rusher of choice.

5.) Brent Grimes CB (UFA) Atlanta Falcons 
For Atlanta to have any chance to compete with the Saints in the NFC South, they have to keep Brent Grimes. If they can't, he'll be perhaps the most sought after defensive player in free agency. Carlos Rogers, Cortland Finnegan, Brandon Carr and Marcus Trufant are among the other free agents at corner, all of whom are starting caliber players in a league where you can never have too many defensive backs.

Corner is a top-heavy portion of this year's draft with several elite players and then just a bunch of guys. Morris Claiborne, Alfonso Dennard, Dre Kirkpatrick and Janoris Jenkins are top-flight talents, but where they fall may have a lot to do with who moves and who stays in free agency.

Claiborne has to the most to lose as a potential top 3 pick unless St. Louis and Minnesota both choose to address defensive back in free agency.