2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Chicago Bears

The legs were cut out from underneath the Bears last season when their two best offense players, in this case their entire offense, went down with injury.

Losing a starting quarterback would doom most teams anyway, but when Matt Forte went down, the only playmaker in Chicago's offense went with it.

It's perplexing then that the Bears didn't attempt to extend Forte with much vigor. Much the opposite, the Bears added Michael Bush in free agency and Brandon Marshall through trade.

Given the life expectancy of a running back's NFL career, the decision not to through a bazillion dollars at Forte does make some sense and Chicago did get Bush for a decent price.

Chicago's defense, though declining, is still stout and the Bears, despite the issue with Forte, have improved their offense significantly.

If Forte chooses to simply play out this year on a franchise deal, the Bears have perhaps the best dual threat running back in the game, a legitimate second back and a true #1 receiver.

Compare that to an offense which last year basically only had one legitimate playmaker in Forte, and even the erratic and precarious play of Jay Cutler is likely to improve.

If Cutler gets better, or at least plays better, the Bears could be the biggest threat to the Packers in the NFC North.

 
Offense
As mentioned above, Marshall and Bush were brought on to make this offense better, although it doesn't make them more explosive.

That, more than anything, was the biggest problem with Chicago's offense last year. The only way they could score was to go 80 yards in 14 plays. That doesn't consistently went football in today's NFL where Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers can you get you 80 yards in 3 plays.

Devin Thomas and Eric Weems were brought in to supplement Marshall, since Devin Hester has never been a reliable option and Johnny Knox is recovering from serious injury.


Also, Jason Campbell was signed in case Cutler is hurt again, something that crippled Chicago last year when they were playing their best football of the season.

All of the offensive weapons in the world don't fix the issues along the offensive line however. Last year's first round pick Gabe Carimi was lost for the season to injury. Getting bigger and more physical upfront will help give Jay Cutler more time to make throws.

Key Free Agents: Caleb Hanie QB (signed w/ Broncos), Josh McCown QB (re-signed w/ Bears), Frank Omiyale (signed w/ Seahawks), Roy Williams WR, 

Defense

This side of the ball continues to be the heart of how the Bears win games. Chicago finished 5th in the league against the run last year, but a lack of talent in the secondary had the Bears a disappointing 28th against the pass.


Given the talent upfront for the Bears with Julius Peppers, Henry Melton, Lance Briggs, and Brian Urlacher, Chicago should have been at least average with even moderately capable defensive backs.

Unfortunately for fans in the Windy City, the Bears don't have many of those. What's more, they play in a division with Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson.

Chicago absolutely must get better in its secondary to compete in the NFC North. They could use a starter at essentially every defensive backfield position.

Getting young and more athletic in the back end of the defense should be a focus for Chicago's offseason.   

Key Free Agents: Corey Graham CB (signed w/ Ravens), Marcus Harrison (signed w/ Patriots), Isreal Idonije DE (re-signed w/ Bears), Tim Jennings (re-signed w/ Bears), Brandon Meriweather S (signed w/ Redskins), Amobi Okoye DT, Craig Steltz S (re-signed w/ Bears)

Draft Targets

Needs: OL,CB,TE,LB,WR
Round 1 (Pick 19): Mark Barron S Alabama (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 20)

Barron may not seem like an ideal fit for a Cover 2 team,  but the Bears have actually been playing much more man coverage over the last few seasons. Barron is a devastating, explosive safety, who lead a pulverizing Alabama defense. He can play in coverage, fill in run support and actually has a talent for coming off the edge to rush the quarterback. Barron may be ranked higher on some boards if not for his double hernia surgery after the National Championship game.
 
Round 2 (Pick 50): Amini Silatolu G Midwestern State (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 52)

This is exactly the kind of player Chicago needs to improve its offensive line. Silatolu is racing up draft boards and has actually had some ink as a potential first round player. He played tackle in college in Division II and will likely have to move inside in the NFL. Silatolu is, on the other hand, a physical, punishing blocker, the kind of player Chicago doesn't currently have on its line. He could play tackle in a pinch because he is a decent athlete, but he's not as agile as an ideal NFL tackle, nor is he long enough. As a guard though, he could be outstanding at the next level.

Round 3 (Pick 79): Leonard Johnson CB Iowa State (Pos. Rank: 8, Overall Rank: 80)

If the Bears are committed to playing more man coverage, Johnson is the right player to start with. That being said, Johnson plays physically and loves to get his hands on receivers, something he'd be asked to do regularly in two high coverages as well. Johnson played well against top 5 prospect Justin Blackmon and has the instincts to be an excellent corner at the next level. Lovie Smith won't tolerate Johnson's erratic tackling, although he will like Johnson's affinity for making big hits. It's rare to find a corner who likes lighting guys up as much as Johnson. With his skill set as a physical corner, Johnson is a perfect fit for this Bears defense in man or zone looks.

Overall

From a draft value standpoint (-4), this isn't an impressive draft. That being said, the numbers don't tell the whole story. The Bears would address their biggest needs with reasonable value.  All three could potentially start and both Barron and Silatolu have Pro Bowl potential. Despite a disappointing finish last year, there truly aren't many glaring holes on this roster and Chicago will be able to zero in a few players they think can help them most. In this case, the Bears add two quality players to their depleted secondary and a starter to their offensive line. Regardless of the value (and it isn't bad), that's a job well done.

Final Thought

Stuck behind two of the best young teams int he league, Chicago will have to draft well this year to catch up in a hurry. Jay Cutler turns 29 at the end of the month so his vacillation between All-Pro and awful can no longer be chalked up to him being a "young quarterback." This is who Jay Cutler is, a risk-taker with a fragile psyche and a temper. On the other hand, he's as talented a quarterback as you'll find and he'll have a better cast this season than he's ever had. If the secondary can improve, this defense will keep the Bears in every game. That means Cutler will get every opportunity to show he can be an All-Pro all the time.

2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Detroit Lions

Starting with Detroit, every subsequent team on this list is in need of improvement if they want to compete next season.

Of those teams, Detroit may be the closest, coming off a playoff appearance for the first time in almost a generation for the Lions.

The core of this team is young and ultra-talented with players like Calvin Johnson, Matthew Stafford and Ndamukong Suh.

On the other hand, the defensive back seven is severely lacking in talent and the offensive line needs some help as well.

Calvin Johnson is one of the most unique physical talents in the NFL's long history, a unique mix of Terrell Owens and Randy Moss, only without the diva attitudes.

The biggest diva on this team is actually Detroit's head coach Jim Schwartz who nearly came to blows with 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh last year over a handshake.

Suh was suspended for stomping a Packer player - after shoving his helmet into the turf - and was voted the NFL's dirtiest player by the players themselves.

There appears to be some issues with institutional control in Detroit and the gross amount of personal foul penalties this team has accumulated over the past few seasons speaks to a lack of discipline.

That being said, the Lions, including their head coach, are loaded with talent and if they can mature, and figure to be a dangerous team for years to come. 
   
Offense
Detroit was a top five offense last year despite finish third to last running the football. They've used two high draft picks on running backs with no success and part of the reason is neither has been able to stay healthy.

A lack of elite talent on the offensive line doesn't help either, but frankly, the best way for this offense to be successful is to throw the ball to Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew and Titus Young.

There are some concerns that this team cannot move the ball effectively and relies too heavily on big plays to score. Getting a possession receiver to pair with the deep speed of Titus Young should open up lanes for Megatron and Pettigrew.

If this backfield is healthy, there is versatile talent with Jahvid Best and Mikel LeShoure, but it seems only logical to draft a back even if it's not in the first few rounds. A quarterback also makes some sense in the mid rounds given that Stafford has an injury history and both of Detroit's back-ups are exiting in free agency.

Offense wasn't a problem for the Lions last season, but there are some spots they can afford to upgrade. If they can, Detroit belongs in the same conversation with the Saints and Packers as the best offenses in the league.


Key Free Agents: Jeff Backus OT (re-signed w/ Lions), Leonard Davis G, Will Heller TE (re-signed w/ Lions), Shaun Hill QB, Maurice Morris RB, Kevin Smith RB (re-signed w/ Lions), Drew Stanton QB (signed w/ Jets, traded to Colts), Maurice Stovall WR, 

Defense 

Despite boasting perhaps the best front four in football, Detroit's defense was the biggest deficiency for the Lions in 2011. Suh being suspended certainly didn't help, but with Cliff Avril, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Corey Williams and Nick Fairley, there was enough talent upfront to be a good, or even great defense.

The reason the Lions weren't an elite defense was the back seven is a major problem. Stephen Tulloch is the only above average starters in that group with Eric Wright leaving in free agency.

Talent, more than scheme or execution, is the biggest reason Detroit finished 23rd in points allowed and 22nd in passing.

Detroit did sign Jacob Lacey, but the former Colts corner isn't anything special and getting some young talent in the back end of the defense to match the front end would go a long way in making this a more complete team.

Key Free Agents: Bobby Carpenter OLB, Erik Coleman CB (re-signed w/ Lions), Andre Fluellen DT (re-signed w/ Lions), DeAndre Levy OLB, Brandon McDonald CB, Stephen Tulloch MLB (re-signed w/ Lions), Eric Wright CB (signed w/ Buccaneers). 

Draft Targets

Needs: DB,LB,RB,WR,OL
Round 1 (Pick 23): Dont'a Hightower ILB Alabama (Pos. Rank 2, Overall Rank: 26)

There has been some speculation that Hightower might actually go ahead of his Alabama teammate Courtney Upshaw, which would make this pick even more valuable than it seems right now. Hightower is an explosive, powerful linebacker who plays downhill all the time. He's exactly the type of aggressive, physical player the Lions need and although he played the middle of Alabama's defense, certainly has the athletic abilities to move outside at the next level.

Round 2 (Pick 56): Rueben Randle WR LSU (Pos. Rank: 7, Overall Rank: 54)

After running what some scouts said was a 4.33 40 at his pro day, Randle may not fall this far. If he does though, Detroit would be wise to draft him, filling the possession receiver role Nate Burleson was supposed to occupy. Randle has the speed to get deep, but at 6-4 can be a target across the middle and draw safeties away from Calvin Johnson. On third and eight with Megatron facing a double team, Randle could be a go-to receiver with his ability to beat single coverage on intermediate routes.

Round 3 (Pick 85): Vontaze Burfict LB Arizona State (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 89)

If there's a place that doesn't need another hot-headed defensive player it's Detroit. If there's a place where they don't seem to care if you have a short fuse, it's also Detroit. Burfict was considered a top 20 talent heading into the year, but inconsistent play, not to mention a propensity to let his emotions get away from him, have him plummeting down draft boards. A below average post-season set of workouts has actually spurred some teams to remove him from their boards completely. He's somewhat redundant with Hightower and Tulloch, but from a talent standpoint, this is an absolute steal in the third round.

Overal

The value in this draft isn't terrific, but with the stock of Randle and Hightower rising, I would say it's better than the numbers (-5) indicate. Between Burfict and Hightower you have at least one starter and potentially two down the road. If you pair Randle with Johnson and put Titus Young in the slot, that's a scary group as well so this draft would make Detroit better at areas of need. Getting an offensive lineman would be nice, as would a running back and quarterback to develop.

Final Thought

Maturity should be the word of the offseason for Detroit. Can they mature? If they can be more disciplined, eliminate the silly penalties, the personal fouls, and execute, they have the talent to match any team in the NFC. Targeting a few players to help in the secondary and linebacker could help really improve a defense that already boasts one of the best pass rushes in the league. Another double-digit season and a shot at the playoffs seem likely, depending on whether or not Matthew Stafford can stay healthy. Teams in the NFC saw last year what the Lions are capable of. They are a year older, and if they are a year wiser, look out.

Deep Impact: 2012 Free Agents with Most Dramatic Effect on Draft

Projecting the NFL Draft in January, before the February Combine or free agency proves tricky because those top 10 teams in particular, may prefer to solve major roster flaws through proven talent in free agency.

That means without knowing who is signed and who is cut, assigning needs to teams and trying to decide which players teams will target is somewhat of an exercise in futility.

On the other hand, it's really fun to do and people love to read about it.

That being said, there will be free agent movement that we know, without much extrapolation, will impact the NFL Draft. This list is not necessarily in order of importance.

1.) Matt Flynn QB (UFA) Green Bay Packers
The best player at the most important position in the sport (Drew Brees is a free agent, but there's no way he leaves New Orleans). The relative lack of depth at this position in free agency elevates Flynn's worth even further and with so many teams needing a quarterback, the former 7th round pick out of LSU will be be in high demand.

With Andrew Luck a lock at the top of the draft, Robert Griffin III will be a hot trade commodity, as in teams trying to trade up to get him. If a team like Miami or Cleveland locks Flynn up prior to the draft, not only does that have them set at that position, it reduces the value of #2 and #3 picks held by St. Louis and Minnesota respectively, who may be hoping to get a bounty in return from a team hoping to grab RG3.

2.) Vincent Jackson WR (UFA) San Diego Chargers
Jackson is more a representative of the extremely deep group of free agent wide receivers heading into 2012. Wes Welker, Reggie Wayne, DeSean Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, Marques Colton, Stevie Johnson, Brandon Lloyd, Robert Meachem and Mario Manningham are part of a free agent class at a time when the wide receiver position is one of the most valuable in football.

The 2012 Draft has depth as well, but a team like Buffalo may choose not to resign Stevie Johnson in favor of getting a guy like Robert Meachem and drafting someone early. With so many talented players on the market, the relative value of each is decreased both as free agents and potential draft picks. In other words, teams who would otherwise have preferred the value of a draft pick can get a player with proven skills for just a little more money.

With as many as 5 wide receivers considered 1st round quality, keep an eye on free agent wide receivers.

3.) Matt Forte RB (UFA) Chicago Bears 
Without Forte, Chicago's offense was abysmal. In fact, it could be easily argued that Matt Forte was a more important part of the Bear's offense in 2011 than Jay Cutler who was also lost to an injury. Chicago absolutely, positively, without question, must resign him. If I'm Matt Forte, I'm insisting on big-time money because I know how valuable I am to the offense.

However, no one would blame Forte for telling the Bears to shove their contract extension and sign somewhere else. If he does, expect the Bears to be active in the first round with a running back, not to mention if Forte does sign elsewhere, it could effect the stock of Trent Richardson, Lamar Miller and Ryan Wilson who all carry first-round grades.

4.) Cliff Avril DE (UFA) Detroit Lions 
Players like Robert Mathis and John Abraham are also part of the 2012 crop of free-agent pass-rushers, but Avril is only 25 and has by far the most upside in this group. Avril is quick off the edge and agile enough to fit in a 4-3 or 3-4 system where he could be a rush linebacker.

The 2012 class does not have the elite pass-rushers of some year's past although Quinton Coples has #1 overall pick potential and Whitney Mercilus lead FBS in sacks last year. There are only a few elite pass-rushing talents in both the draft and free agency, which means the value of each rises considerably. Expect to see teams trading up to grab their pass-rusher of choice.

5.) Brent Grimes CB (UFA) Atlanta Falcons 
For Atlanta to have any chance to compete with the Saints in the NFC South, they have to keep Brent Grimes. If they can't, he'll be perhaps the most sought after defensive player in free agency. Carlos Rogers, Cortland Finnegan, Brandon Carr and Marcus Trufant are among the other free agents at corner, all of whom are starting caliber players in a league where you can never have too many defensive backs.

Corner is a top-heavy portion of this year's draft with several elite players and then just a bunch of guys. Morris Claiborne, Alfonso Dennard, Dre Kirkpatrick and Janoris Jenkins are top-flight talents, but where they fall may have a lot to do with who moves and who stays in free agency.

Claiborne has to the most to lose as a potential top 3 pick unless St. Louis and Minnesota both choose to address defensive back in free agency.