2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Chicago Bears

The legs were cut out from underneath the Bears last season when their two best offense players, in this case their entire offense, went down with injury.

Losing a starting quarterback would doom most teams anyway, but when Matt Forte went down, the only playmaker in Chicago's offense went with it.

It's perplexing then that the Bears didn't attempt to extend Forte with much vigor. Much the opposite, the Bears added Michael Bush in free agency and Brandon Marshall through trade.

Given the life expectancy of a running back's NFL career, the decision not to through a bazillion dollars at Forte does make some sense and Chicago did get Bush for a decent price.

Chicago's defense, though declining, is still stout and the Bears, despite the issue with Forte, have improved their offense significantly.

If Forte chooses to simply play out this year on a franchise deal, the Bears have perhaps the best dual threat running back in the game, a legitimate second back and a true #1 receiver.

Compare that to an offense which last year basically only had one legitimate playmaker in Forte, and even the erratic and precarious play of Jay Cutler is likely to improve.

If Cutler gets better, or at least plays better, the Bears could be the biggest threat to the Packers in the NFC North.

 
Offense
As mentioned above, Marshall and Bush were brought on to make this offense better, although it doesn't make them more explosive.

That, more than anything, was the biggest problem with Chicago's offense last year. The only way they could score was to go 80 yards in 14 plays. That doesn't consistently went football in today's NFL where Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers can you get you 80 yards in 3 plays.

Devin Thomas and Eric Weems were brought in to supplement Marshall, since Devin Hester has never been a reliable option and Johnny Knox is recovering from serious injury.


Also, Jason Campbell was signed in case Cutler is hurt again, something that crippled Chicago last year when they were playing their best football of the season.

All of the offensive weapons in the world don't fix the issues along the offensive line however. Last year's first round pick Gabe Carimi was lost for the season to injury. Getting bigger and more physical upfront will help give Jay Cutler more time to make throws.

Key Free Agents: Caleb Hanie QB (signed w/ Broncos), Josh McCown QB (re-signed w/ Bears), Frank Omiyale (signed w/ Seahawks), Roy Williams WR, 

Defense

This side of the ball continues to be the heart of how the Bears win games. Chicago finished 5th in the league against the run last year, but a lack of talent in the secondary had the Bears a disappointing 28th against the pass.


Given the talent upfront for the Bears with Julius Peppers, Henry Melton, Lance Briggs, and Brian Urlacher, Chicago should have been at least average with even moderately capable defensive backs.

Unfortunately for fans in the Windy City, the Bears don't have many of those. What's more, they play in a division with Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson.

Chicago absolutely must get better in its secondary to compete in the NFC North. They could use a starter at essentially every defensive backfield position.

Getting young and more athletic in the back end of the defense should be a focus for Chicago's offseason.   

Key Free Agents: Corey Graham CB (signed w/ Ravens), Marcus Harrison (signed w/ Patriots), Isreal Idonije DE (re-signed w/ Bears), Tim Jennings (re-signed w/ Bears), Brandon Meriweather S (signed w/ Redskins), Amobi Okoye DT, Craig Steltz S (re-signed w/ Bears)

Draft Targets

Needs: OL,CB,TE,LB,WR
Round 1 (Pick 19): Mark Barron S Alabama (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 20)

Barron may not seem like an ideal fit for a Cover 2 team,  but the Bears have actually been playing much more man coverage over the last few seasons. Barron is a devastating, explosive safety, who lead a pulverizing Alabama defense. He can play in coverage, fill in run support and actually has a talent for coming off the edge to rush the quarterback. Barron may be ranked higher on some boards if not for his double hernia surgery after the National Championship game.
 
Round 2 (Pick 50): Amini Silatolu G Midwestern State (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 52)

This is exactly the kind of player Chicago needs to improve its offensive line. Silatolu is racing up draft boards and has actually had some ink as a potential first round player. He played tackle in college in Division II and will likely have to move inside in the NFL. Silatolu is, on the other hand, a physical, punishing blocker, the kind of player Chicago doesn't currently have on its line. He could play tackle in a pinch because he is a decent athlete, but he's not as agile as an ideal NFL tackle, nor is he long enough. As a guard though, he could be outstanding at the next level.

Round 3 (Pick 79): Leonard Johnson CB Iowa State (Pos. Rank: 8, Overall Rank: 80)

If the Bears are committed to playing more man coverage, Johnson is the right player to start with. That being said, Johnson plays physically and loves to get his hands on receivers, something he'd be asked to do regularly in two high coverages as well. Johnson played well against top 5 prospect Justin Blackmon and has the instincts to be an excellent corner at the next level. Lovie Smith won't tolerate Johnson's erratic tackling, although he will like Johnson's affinity for making big hits. It's rare to find a corner who likes lighting guys up as much as Johnson. With his skill set as a physical corner, Johnson is a perfect fit for this Bears defense in man or zone looks.

Overall

From a draft value standpoint (-4), this isn't an impressive draft. That being said, the numbers don't tell the whole story. The Bears would address their biggest needs with reasonable value.  All three could potentially start and both Barron and Silatolu have Pro Bowl potential. Despite a disappointing finish last year, there truly aren't many glaring holes on this roster and Chicago will be able to zero in a few players they think can help them most. In this case, the Bears add two quality players to their depleted secondary and a starter to their offensive line. Regardless of the value (and it isn't bad), that's a job well done.

Final Thought

Stuck behind two of the best young teams int he league, Chicago will have to draft well this year to catch up in a hurry. Jay Cutler turns 29 at the end of the month so his vacillation between All-Pro and awful can no longer be chalked up to him being a "young quarterback." This is who Jay Cutler is, a risk-taker with a fragile psyche and a temper. On the other hand, he's as talented a quarterback as you'll find and he'll have a better cast this season than he's ever had. If the secondary can improve, this defense will keep the Bears in every game. That means Cutler will get every opportunity to show he can be an All-Pro all the time.

Deep Impact: 2012 Free Agents with Most Dramatic Effect on Draft

Projecting the NFL Draft in January, before the February Combine or free agency proves tricky because those top 10 teams in particular, may prefer to solve major roster flaws through proven talent in free agency.

That means without knowing who is signed and who is cut, assigning needs to teams and trying to decide which players teams will target is somewhat of an exercise in futility.

On the other hand, it's really fun to do and people love to read about it.

That being said, there will be free agent movement that we know, without much extrapolation, will impact the NFL Draft. This list is not necessarily in order of importance.

1.) Matt Flynn QB (UFA) Green Bay Packers
The best player at the most important position in the sport (Drew Brees is a free agent, but there's no way he leaves New Orleans). The relative lack of depth at this position in free agency elevates Flynn's worth even further and with so many teams needing a quarterback, the former 7th round pick out of LSU will be be in high demand.

With Andrew Luck a lock at the top of the draft, Robert Griffin III will be a hot trade commodity, as in teams trying to trade up to get him. If a team like Miami or Cleveland locks Flynn up prior to the draft, not only does that have them set at that position, it reduces the value of #2 and #3 picks held by St. Louis and Minnesota respectively, who may be hoping to get a bounty in return from a team hoping to grab RG3.

2.) Vincent Jackson WR (UFA) San Diego Chargers
Jackson is more a representative of the extremely deep group of free agent wide receivers heading into 2012. Wes Welker, Reggie Wayne, DeSean Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, Marques Colton, Stevie Johnson, Brandon Lloyd, Robert Meachem and Mario Manningham are part of a free agent class at a time when the wide receiver position is one of the most valuable in football.

The 2012 Draft has depth as well, but a team like Buffalo may choose not to resign Stevie Johnson in favor of getting a guy like Robert Meachem and drafting someone early. With so many talented players on the market, the relative value of each is decreased both as free agents and potential draft picks. In other words, teams who would otherwise have preferred the value of a draft pick can get a player with proven skills for just a little more money.

With as many as 5 wide receivers considered 1st round quality, keep an eye on free agent wide receivers.

3.) Matt Forte RB (UFA) Chicago Bears 
Without Forte, Chicago's offense was abysmal. In fact, it could be easily argued that Matt Forte was a more important part of the Bear's offense in 2011 than Jay Cutler who was also lost to an injury. Chicago absolutely, positively, without question, must resign him. If I'm Matt Forte, I'm insisting on big-time money because I know how valuable I am to the offense.

However, no one would blame Forte for telling the Bears to shove their contract extension and sign somewhere else. If he does, expect the Bears to be active in the first round with a running back, not to mention if Forte does sign elsewhere, it could effect the stock of Trent Richardson, Lamar Miller and Ryan Wilson who all carry first-round grades.

4.) Cliff Avril DE (UFA) Detroit Lions 
Players like Robert Mathis and John Abraham are also part of the 2012 crop of free-agent pass-rushers, but Avril is only 25 and has by far the most upside in this group. Avril is quick off the edge and agile enough to fit in a 4-3 or 3-4 system where he could be a rush linebacker.

The 2012 class does not have the elite pass-rushers of some year's past although Quinton Coples has #1 overall pick potential and Whitney Mercilus lead FBS in sacks last year. There are only a few elite pass-rushing talents in both the draft and free agency, which means the value of each rises considerably. Expect to see teams trading up to grab their pass-rusher of choice.

5.) Brent Grimes CB (UFA) Atlanta Falcons 
For Atlanta to have any chance to compete with the Saints in the NFC South, they have to keep Brent Grimes. If they can't, he'll be perhaps the most sought after defensive player in free agency. Carlos Rogers, Cortland Finnegan, Brandon Carr and Marcus Trufant are among the other free agents at corner, all of whom are starting caliber players in a league where you can never have too many defensive backs.

Corner is a top-heavy portion of this year's draft with several elite players and then just a bunch of guys. Morris Claiborne, Alfonso Dennard, Dre Kirkpatrick and Janoris Jenkins are top-flight talents, but where they fall may have a lot to do with who moves and who stays in free agency.

Claiborne has to the most to lose as a potential top 3 pick unless St. Louis and Minnesota both choose to address defensive back in free agency.