2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Chicago Bears

The legs were cut out from underneath the Bears last season when their two best offense players, in this case their entire offense, went down with injury.

Losing a starting quarterback would doom most teams anyway, but when Matt Forte went down, the only playmaker in Chicago's offense went with it.

It's perplexing then that the Bears didn't attempt to extend Forte with much vigor. Much the opposite, the Bears added Michael Bush in free agency and Brandon Marshall through trade.

Given the life expectancy of a running back's NFL career, the decision not to through a bazillion dollars at Forte does make some sense and Chicago did get Bush for a decent price.

Chicago's defense, though declining, is still stout and the Bears, despite the issue with Forte, have improved their offense significantly.

If Forte chooses to simply play out this year on a franchise deal, the Bears have perhaps the best dual threat running back in the game, a legitimate second back and a true #1 receiver.

Compare that to an offense which last year basically only had one legitimate playmaker in Forte, and even the erratic and precarious play of Jay Cutler is likely to improve.

If Cutler gets better, or at least plays better, the Bears could be the biggest threat to the Packers in the NFC North.

 
Offense
As mentioned above, Marshall and Bush were brought on to make this offense better, although it doesn't make them more explosive.

That, more than anything, was the biggest problem with Chicago's offense last year. The only way they could score was to go 80 yards in 14 plays. That doesn't consistently went football in today's NFL where Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers can you get you 80 yards in 3 plays.

Devin Thomas and Eric Weems were brought in to supplement Marshall, since Devin Hester has never been a reliable option and Johnny Knox is recovering from serious injury.


Also, Jason Campbell was signed in case Cutler is hurt again, something that crippled Chicago last year when they were playing their best football of the season.

All of the offensive weapons in the world don't fix the issues along the offensive line however. Last year's first round pick Gabe Carimi was lost for the season to injury. Getting bigger and more physical upfront will help give Jay Cutler more time to make throws.

Key Free Agents: Caleb Hanie QB (signed w/ Broncos), Josh McCown QB (re-signed w/ Bears), Frank Omiyale (signed w/ Seahawks), Roy Williams WR, 

Defense

This side of the ball continues to be the heart of how the Bears win games. Chicago finished 5th in the league against the run last year, but a lack of talent in the secondary had the Bears a disappointing 28th against the pass.


Given the talent upfront for the Bears with Julius Peppers, Henry Melton, Lance Briggs, and Brian Urlacher, Chicago should have been at least average with even moderately capable defensive backs.

Unfortunately for fans in the Windy City, the Bears don't have many of those. What's more, they play in a division with Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson.

Chicago absolutely must get better in its secondary to compete in the NFC North. They could use a starter at essentially every defensive backfield position.

Getting young and more athletic in the back end of the defense should be a focus for Chicago's offseason.   

Key Free Agents: Corey Graham CB (signed w/ Ravens), Marcus Harrison (signed w/ Patriots), Isreal Idonije DE (re-signed w/ Bears), Tim Jennings (re-signed w/ Bears), Brandon Meriweather S (signed w/ Redskins), Amobi Okoye DT, Craig Steltz S (re-signed w/ Bears)

Draft Targets

Needs: OL,CB,TE,LB,WR
Round 1 (Pick 19): Mark Barron S Alabama (Pos. Rank: 1, Overall Rank: 20)

Barron may not seem like an ideal fit for a Cover 2 team,  but the Bears have actually been playing much more man coverage over the last few seasons. Barron is a devastating, explosive safety, who lead a pulverizing Alabama defense. He can play in coverage, fill in run support and actually has a talent for coming off the edge to rush the quarterback. Barron may be ranked higher on some boards if not for his double hernia surgery after the National Championship game.
 
Round 2 (Pick 50): Amini Silatolu G Midwestern State (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 52)

This is exactly the kind of player Chicago needs to improve its offensive line. Silatolu is racing up draft boards and has actually had some ink as a potential first round player. He played tackle in college in Division II and will likely have to move inside in the NFL. Silatolu is, on the other hand, a physical, punishing blocker, the kind of player Chicago doesn't currently have on its line. He could play tackle in a pinch because he is a decent athlete, but he's not as agile as an ideal NFL tackle, nor is he long enough. As a guard though, he could be outstanding at the next level.

Round 3 (Pick 79): Leonard Johnson CB Iowa State (Pos. Rank: 8, Overall Rank: 80)

If the Bears are committed to playing more man coverage, Johnson is the right player to start with. That being said, Johnson plays physically and loves to get his hands on receivers, something he'd be asked to do regularly in two high coverages as well. Johnson played well against top 5 prospect Justin Blackmon and has the instincts to be an excellent corner at the next level. Lovie Smith won't tolerate Johnson's erratic tackling, although he will like Johnson's affinity for making big hits. It's rare to find a corner who likes lighting guys up as much as Johnson. With his skill set as a physical corner, Johnson is a perfect fit for this Bears defense in man or zone looks.

Overall

From a draft value standpoint (-4), this isn't an impressive draft. That being said, the numbers don't tell the whole story. The Bears would address their biggest needs with reasonable value.  All three could potentially start and both Barron and Silatolu have Pro Bowl potential. Despite a disappointing finish last year, there truly aren't many glaring holes on this roster and Chicago will be able to zero in a few players they think can help them most. In this case, the Bears add two quality players to their depleted secondary and a starter to their offensive line. Regardless of the value (and it isn't bad), that's a job well done.

Final Thought

Stuck behind two of the best young teams int he league, Chicago will have to draft well this year to catch up in a hurry. Jay Cutler turns 29 at the end of the month so his vacillation between All-Pro and awful can no longer be chalked up to him being a "young quarterback." This is who Jay Cutler is, a risk-taker with a fragile psyche and a temper. On the other hand, he's as talented a quarterback as you'll find and he'll have a better cast this season than he's ever had. If the secondary can improve, this defense will keep the Bears in every game. That means Cutler will get every opportunity to show he can be an All-Pro all the time.

2012 NFL Offseason Prospectus: Green Bay Packers

The prohibitive Super Bowl favorite coming into 2011, the Green Bay Packers chased perfection for 13 weeks, then they did something in their first playoff that they had only done once all season: they lost.

An anti-climactic finish belies the fact that this Packer team had the greatest regular season in team history, quite a feat when you consider the Lambeau, Lombardi and Holmgren teams that have played there.

Head Coach Mike McCarthy is probably the most underrated coach in the league and has done nothing but win since he took over for Mike Sherman in 2006, getting to the NFC Championship game in his second season and winning a championship in his fifth season.

His offense is arguably the best in the league with the best quarterback in football and if the defense can do anything to improve, you can expect another double-digit win season and a deep playoff run.

With just a few places to address in order to improve the worst pass defense in history, the Packers will be able to focus in on those needs and Ted Thompson has already shown a willingness to be aggressive this offseason having signed two (!) free agents to this point. 
  
Offense
Aaron Rodgers might be the best player in football. That's basically everything you need to know about this offense. Rodgers played as well as any quarterback ever last year and this offense is loaded with skill position players from Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson to Jermichael Finley and James Starks.

The offensive line has some solid players, but only Josh Sitton is considered elite at his position. Bryan Bulaga is one of the best young tackles in football, but couldn't stay healthy last year and rookie Derek Sherrod broke his leg in a gruesome injury.

Green Bay signed Jeff Saturday to fill the void left by Scott Wells who signed with St. Louis. Saturday is a veteran who, while getting up in age, can still play at a high level.

Getting a running back to pair with Starks will likely be on Thompson's agenda in the draft with Ryan Grant being shown the door.

Adding depth to the offensive line looks like the only other place where this offense could use some help. This is one of the few teams where essentially every starter from last year on offense will be back.
 
Key Free Agents: Matt Flynn QB (signed w/Seahawks), Ryan Grant RB, Scott Wells C (signed w/ Rams)

Defense 

Personnel-wise, this wasn't a dramatically different defense in 2011 than it was in 2010, when the Packers finished best in the league against the pass.

Coming off a historically putrid season stopping opposing quarterbacks, the Packers will be looking to upgrade a pass rush that was non-existent last season.

This secondary, if Nick Collins is cleared to play, has some of the best playmakers in the league at created turnovers. They lead the league in takeaways and interceptions last year thanks in large part to an aggressive, gambling secondary.

Last season, losing Cullen Jenkins while getting nothing from the ROLB position allowed opposing quarterbacks just enough time to get to a secondary that can be susceptible to double moves.

Expect Ted Thompson to get a player for every level of his defense this offseason.


Key Free Agents:Jarrett Bush DB (signed w/ Packers), Howard Green DT, Pat Lee CB (signed w/ Raiders), Erik Walden OLB

Draft Targets

Needs: OLB,DL,DB,OL,RB

Round 1 (Pick 28): Nick Perry OLB/DE USC (Pos. Rank 4, Overall Rank: 27)
Green Bay already has a dominant pass rusher from USC and Perry, while a little raw, may actually have better physical tools than Clay Matthews. In fact, he's somewhat similar to Packers linebacker coach Kevin Greene as a strong, overpowering outside linebacker. Perry has plus speed and explosion, but needs to use his hands better to ward off blocks. This would make quite the combination for opposing offenses to try and block.

Round 2 (Pick 59): Chris Polk RB Washington (Pos. Rank: 4, Overall Rank: 60)

Truly a value pick here. Green Bay lost Alex Greene last year to a knee injury and Ryan Grant is getting up in age. Polk is a versatile, physical runner who can also be effective out of the backfield. McCarthy likes to use multiple running backs and ride the hot hand, which means the Packers using a draft pick on a running back shouldn't be at all surprising. Also, none of the running backs on the roster, even if Grant were brought back, have shown the ability to stay healthy.
 
Round 3 (Pick 90): Mike Martin DT Michigan (Pos. Rank: 11, Overall Rank: 85)
This is one of my sleepers in the draft. Martin is a former wrestler and you can see it in how he plays. Some believe he's an undersized nose tackle, but he run a sub 4.9 40 at the combine and has the athletic ability to slide outside in the Packers' 3-4 defense. Furthermore, Martin's ability to stay low and use his hands to ward off blockers should help keep offensive lineman off Green Bay's linebackers. This could end up being a steal.

Overall 

No one drafts with value in mind better than Ted Thompson with his best player available strategy. It's how Green Bay wound up with players like Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson. In this draft, there will be more opportunities for value with the draft loaded with defensive front players, a weak area for Green Bay. Getting an outside linebacker like Nick Perry with his strength opposite Clay Matthews would be a coup and Mike Martin is a tremendous value in the third round. In terms of value, this is a solid draft (5+) not to mention giving the Packers at least two starters, while Polk could be key in McCarthy's stable approach to running backs. I wouldn't be shocked to see Thompson package a few picks to move up and get the outside linebacker he most fancies.

Final Thought

New York may be the favorite in the NFC, but Green Bay has beaten New York two out of the last three time they played and Green Bay has the younger, more talented team. While the Lions and Bears both will be better in 2012, the Packers remain the favorite in the NFC North and should be in the mix once again for home field advantage in the playoffs. Packer fans will anxiously await to see which pass rusher Thompson brings in to help this defense rebound. Get a difference maker and this Packer team could be scary good once again.

Deep Impact: 2012 Free Agents with Most Dramatic Effect on Draft

Projecting the NFL Draft in January, before the February Combine or free agency proves tricky because those top 10 teams in particular, may prefer to solve major roster flaws through proven talent in free agency.

That means without knowing who is signed and who is cut, assigning needs to teams and trying to decide which players teams will target is somewhat of an exercise in futility.

On the other hand, it's really fun to do and people love to read about it.

That being said, there will be free agent movement that we know, without much extrapolation, will impact the NFL Draft. This list is not necessarily in order of importance.

1.) Matt Flynn QB (UFA) Green Bay Packers
The best player at the most important position in the sport (Drew Brees is a free agent, but there's no way he leaves New Orleans). The relative lack of depth at this position in free agency elevates Flynn's worth even further and with so many teams needing a quarterback, the former 7th round pick out of LSU will be be in high demand.

With Andrew Luck a lock at the top of the draft, Robert Griffin III will be a hot trade commodity, as in teams trying to trade up to get him. If a team like Miami or Cleveland locks Flynn up prior to the draft, not only does that have them set at that position, it reduces the value of #2 and #3 picks held by St. Louis and Minnesota respectively, who may be hoping to get a bounty in return from a team hoping to grab RG3.

2.) Vincent Jackson WR (UFA) San Diego Chargers
Jackson is more a representative of the extremely deep group of free agent wide receivers heading into 2012. Wes Welker, Reggie Wayne, DeSean Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, Marques Colton, Stevie Johnson, Brandon Lloyd, Robert Meachem and Mario Manningham are part of a free agent class at a time when the wide receiver position is one of the most valuable in football.

The 2012 Draft has depth as well, but a team like Buffalo may choose not to resign Stevie Johnson in favor of getting a guy like Robert Meachem and drafting someone early. With so many talented players on the market, the relative value of each is decreased both as free agents and potential draft picks. In other words, teams who would otherwise have preferred the value of a draft pick can get a player with proven skills for just a little more money.

With as many as 5 wide receivers considered 1st round quality, keep an eye on free agent wide receivers.

3.) Matt Forte RB (UFA) Chicago Bears 
Without Forte, Chicago's offense was abysmal. In fact, it could be easily argued that Matt Forte was a more important part of the Bear's offense in 2011 than Jay Cutler who was also lost to an injury. Chicago absolutely, positively, without question, must resign him. If I'm Matt Forte, I'm insisting on big-time money because I know how valuable I am to the offense.

However, no one would blame Forte for telling the Bears to shove their contract extension and sign somewhere else. If he does, expect the Bears to be active in the first round with a running back, not to mention if Forte does sign elsewhere, it could effect the stock of Trent Richardson, Lamar Miller and Ryan Wilson who all carry first-round grades.

4.) Cliff Avril DE (UFA) Detroit Lions 
Players like Robert Mathis and John Abraham are also part of the 2012 crop of free-agent pass-rushers, but Avril is only 25 and has by far the most upside in this group. Avril is quick off the edge and agile enough to fit in a 4-3 or 3-4 system where he could be a rush linebacker.

The 2012 class does not have the elite pass-rushers of some year's past although Quinton Coples has #1 overall pick potential and Whitney Mercilus lead FBS in sacks last year. There are only a few elite pass-rushing talents in both the draft and free agency, which means the value of each rises considerably. Expect to see teams trading up to grab their pass-rusher of choice.

5.) Brent Grimes CB (UFA) Atlanta Falcons 
For Atlanta to have any chance to compete with the Saints in the NFC South, they have to keep Brent Grimes. If they can't, he'll be perhaps the most sought after defensive player in free agency. Carlos Rogers, Cortland Finnegan, Brandon Carr and Marcus Trufant are among the other free agents at corner, all of whom are starting caliber players in a league where you can never have too many defensive backs.

Corner is a top-heavy portion of this year's draft with several elite players and then just a bunch of guys. Morris Claiborne, Alfonso Dennard, Dre Kirkpatrick and Janoris Jenkins are top-flight talents, but where they fall may have a lot to do with who moves and who stays in free agency.

Claiborne has to the most to lose as a potential top 3 pick unless St. Louis and Minnesota both choose to address defensive back in free agency.