Three days are done at the combine and the skill positions on offense have taken their turn. Already some shifting has taken place as a result of combine work, both upward and downward. The tight end class in 2008 lacks a top 10 prospect like a Kellen Winslow Jr., but Fred Davis and Dustin Keller both have the potential to be better than Greg Olsen, the first tight end taken in 2007. The group features several highly productive collegiate players and several projects, whose college numbers may not be indicative over their overall talent. Here is a look at the top players at the tight end position for 2008.
1a.) Fred Davis USC 6-4 248
Davis caught a team high 62 passes in 13 ball games in his senior season for USC and is one of the few premier talents at the tight end position in this year's draft. While he struggled early at the combine with drops, Fred Davis has the ball skills of a wide receiver and has the athleticism to make difficult catches in traffic. His route running has improved significantly and he is certainly capable of running routes from the slot, the backfield, or off the line. Davis did not run at the combine but put up 24 reps of 225, good enough for third among tight ends. There are some questions about his ability to block at the point of attack, so perhaps the strong bench press performance eases the minds of scouts in that regard. Davis does use good technique in the run game and with added strength, his blocking should be solid. Davis was the John Mackey award winner for best tight end in the nation and watching him demolish the Illinois defense in the Rose Bowl, it was easy to see why. A dominant performance from Purdue's Dustin Keller at the combine means Davis will need a strong Pro Day to solidify himself as the top tight end in the draft. With a 40 in the sub 4.7's will likely mean a first round grade. He is one of my favorite players at any position in this year's draft. A team like Seattle could really utilize his skill set in that offense, and could take him in the first round.
1b. Dustin Keller Purdue 6-3 245
Dustin Keller's put on a clinic at the combine, testing out as the best athlete in the tight end class, particularly given that Fred Davis did not run. Keller was the fastest tight end in Indy running a blistering (for tight ends) 4.53 40 yard dash. In addition,the Purdue product had the highest vertical jump (38 inches) and put up the second most reps of 225 on the bench (26). And don't be fooled into thinking this converted wide receiver is simply a work out warrior. In 8 games last season Keller caught 5 or more passes, including a 7 catch 150 yard 1 TD performance in the Motor City Bowl against Central Michigan. While Keller may not play with ideal leverage in the run game, or have great technique blocking overall, with his strength and athleticism these things can be cultivated. He has a knack for finding holes in zones and settling in, but he will drop balls occasionally. Fred Davis may be the most polished and NFL-ready tight end in the Draft, but Keller has the most upside. In the right system, Keller could be a force on Sundays. So, until Fred Davis runs at USC's Pro Day, the two will be 1a and 1b.
3.) John Carlson Notre Dame 6-6 256
This former basketball star certainly passes the eye test, but did not pass many other tests at the combine. Many of the concerns scouts had about Carlson coming in were confirmed. Carlson is neither quick nor fast, running 4.9 40's, but he also not what you would consider a blocking tight end. He plays with poor leverage at times, but takes good angles and has adequate technique as a blocker. His 20 reps on the bench press is average at best and wasn't even in the top 10. Two straight seasons with 40 or more receptions at Notre Dame proves his reliability, and his hands are solid. At the combine, he fought the ball at times, and his fluidity in that regard continues to be a concern. Carlson benefited from Notre Dame's pro style offense, utilizing his smarts and craftiness to get open in zones and seams. He adjusts well to the flight path of poorly thrown balls (something he had to deal with quite a bit as a senior). Zach Miller ran a disappointing 40 at the combine last year and was picked in the second round. Carlson does not have the kind of upside as Davis and Keller and probably lost his first round grade at the combine. The second, even the third round is probably where Carlson will fall. He can certainly help a team right away, even if it is just special teams and multiple tight end sets.
4.) Martellus Bennett Texas A&M 6-7 248
An All-American tight end and former basketball player, Martellus Bennett's value will vary on draft boards for a number of reasons. The former Aggie is an intriguing prospect because of his ability to play both run and pass. Bennett is probably the most complete tight end in terms of combining blocking and receiving. He will maul people in the run game and pass protection and has the bulk to take on rush linebackers and even defensive ends. He fights to the whistle with or without the ball and gets more than 5 knockdown blocks per game. In addition, Bennett lacks great speed overall, but did run a sub 4.7 40 and with his height and long arms can make tough catches in the seam and over the middle. Some attitude issues may take away from his value some, but not enough for too many teams to shy away from a talent like his. Teams who love to run the football will really covet this kid, but those with vertical passing attacks will likely have him lower on their boards. Either way, he has serious talent and a team in the second round like Buffalo or Atlanta would provide great fits for Bennett's talent. He is at worst an early third round pick and I would not be surprised if he goes ahead of Carlson as these ratings could just as easily be flipped(much like Davis and Keller).
5.) Jermichael Finley Texas 6-5 236
This begins the drop off in tight end talent in this year's class. Jermichael Finley actually declared after a redshirt sophomore year in which he caught 45 passes for for 578 yards and 2 touchdowns. Finley flashed his natural receiving skills, but could have benefited from at least one more year of school at Texas. He has an athletic body and has room to put on weight. Scouts expected him to run faster than he did at 4.82, but that was good enough 8th among tight ends. He is one of the few elusive tight ends in this year's draft, certainly more than Bennett or Carlson and can generate yards after the catch. His blocking has improved and should continue to do so. Only 16 career starts is certainly a concern. In addition Finley has never played in a pro-style offense. With such little playing experience, his adjustment to a Pro Game could be slow. In theory, his best football is ahead of him and he is risk/reward prospect. He could go anywhere from the second to fourth round.
6.) Martin Rucker Missouri 6-5 248
Martin Rucker is the most productive collegiate at the position by far. When you are in the record books next to Kellen B. Winslow, you have some serious talent. Rucker did not time well at the combine, nor did he show much dexterity at the Senior Bowl, but the numbers speak for themselves. Rucker had 80 catches last season; only 3 tight ends in the NFL had 80 or more catches and they get 16 games. He is not particularly strong, nor does he have much experience as an in-line blocker, but he takes solid angles and gets to the second level quickly. He is a fluid route runner on film, regardless of his inconsistent Senior Bowl, and should be able to run all the routes in the pros. He lacks ideal speed to push safeties deep, but he will move the chains in a consistent way and will be a reliable third down and redzone target. Concerns about his time in the spread inflating his statistics certainly has merit, but Missouri has had a number of different weapons over his time and Rucker has always produced. He is a little of a "what you see is what you get" product with less upside than the guys above him. However, Rucker is an extremely solid football player and can help a team looking to add depth and receiving ability. Should go in the third or fourth round, but may slip given the poor showing at the combine and Senior Bowl.
7.) Brad Cottam Tennesse 6-8 271
Brad Cottom may be one of the biggest risk/reward prospects at any position in this year's draft, and has to talent to go as high as the second round. At the combine Cottom's measureables make him look like a top-tier prospect ( 4.63 40, 24 reps on the bench, and 33 inch vertical jump). Cottam is someone the antithesis of Rucker. In his 3 year career at Tennessee, Cottam has just 21 receptions, 3 for touchdowns. His hands are average and he is not going to make anyone miss. His speed suggests he can stretch the middle of the field, but isn't very physical and may not have what it takes to take the physical beating over the middle. Injuries have hampered him throughout his career and after running one of the best times at the position in the 40, Cottam came up lame. His strength and athleticism can be harnessed and with the right coaching staff and system he could be an extremely productive receiver, particularly in the red zone. The middle rounds seem about right to take a risk on this kind of player, somewhere in the third or fourth round area.
8.) Kellen Davis Michigan State 6-6 259
If there is one player you wouldn't want to piss off in a bar, this is the guy. Davis sports chiseled and imposing frame and has tremendous athletic potential. Unfortunately for him (and for Spartan fans), his work ethic never met his potential. Plenty of teams were interesting in talking to Davis at the Senior Bowl and after a solid performance at the combine it isn't difficult to see why. Davis ran a 4.6 40, good enough for fourth among tight ends and amazing for someone with his size. He has the frame to add even more strength (he repped 225 22 times) and some of the fundamentals can be fine-tuned. He played some defensive end in East Lansing and teams might be tempted to try him as a rush linebacker, although his ball skills probably make it too hard to put him on defense. Either way, he has a future as a special teams impact player right away if he can commit to it. He is certainly a project, but a team willing to wait could get a steal in the late fourth or fifth round.
Other tight ends expecting to hear their names called in April: Craig Stephens Cal, Jacob Tamme Kentucky, Darrell Strong Pitt, Joe Jon Finley Oklahoma, Joey Haynos Maryland, Gary Barnidge Louisville
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